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2020-06-16
动不动就有人说“真相”，什么时候了解真相门槛这么低了
全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚，我潜入“跟谁学”课堂，了解了一些真相
清墨
2020-03-31
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动不动就有人说“真相”，什么时候了解真相门槛这么低了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955193782","repostId":"2043363773","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2043363773","pubTimestamp":1592308824,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2043363773?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-06-16 20:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚，我潜入“跟谁学”课堂，了解了一些真相","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2043363773","media":"雪球","summary":"原标题：全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚，我潜入“跟谁学”课堂，了解了一些真相 来源：雪球6月15日夜，或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈（陈向东）最兴奋的时候","content":"<html><body><p>原标题：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QC7.SI\">全民</a>做空股“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>”暴涨20%那晚，我潜入“跟谁学”课堂，了解了一些真相 来源：雪球</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/94/w600h294/20200616/285a-iuzasxs9569522.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>6月15日夜，或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈（陈向东）最兴奋的时候。这一晚，“跟谁学”股价一路暴涨，最高至55.88元，最终收盘52.00元，涨幅20.82%，创下该股上市以来的新高！市值也达到了124亿美元（约合840亿人民币）。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/470/w710h560/20200616/1caf-iuzasxs9569520.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>当晚，伴随着“跟谁学”一路大涨，则是做空“跟谁学”的投资人不断平仓、关灯、吃面。在雪球上，一部分投资人一边哀嚎着割肉，一边宣誓改日再战；一部分投资人则继续加大做空仓位，甚至做好了“跟谁学”股价涨至80美元-100美元的准备。</p><p>股价一路绿上天</p><p>不得不承认的是，“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)15日晚的暴涨不仅碾压了做空者，即使是相信跟谁学、持有其股票的投资人也颇感意外。</p><p>15日中概股是普涨行情，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>涨2.62%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>涨0.47%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">有道</a>涨14.38%，蔚来汽车涨11.97%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">哔哩哔哩</a>涨6.52%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TME\">腾讯音乐</a>涨3.66%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>涨6.24%，但涨幅最高的还是“跟谁学”。</p><p>同为中概教育股，“跟谁学”的前辈<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>(NYSE:EDU)股价是下跌的，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>(NYSE:TAL)也仅上涨了1.77%。让无数做空者心中窝火的是，为何跟谁学能一枝独绿绿上天？</p><p>稍微了解“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)被做空历史的投资人，都会对这种暴涨行情目瞪口呆。</p><p>在过去3个月里，“跟谁学”被4家境外做空机构持续做空9次，浑水（MuddyWaters Research）、香橼（Citron Research）、天蝎（Scorpio VC）、灰熊（Grizzly Research），这些国际上最知名的做空机构先后加入了做空“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)的队伍。</p><p>据统计，仅在5月份，做空“跟谁学”的资金就增加了1.43亿美元，做空总规模高达8.15亿美元，占“跟谁学”流通股的21%。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/740/w496h244/20200616/ca48-iuzasxs9569591.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>因此，15日晚的暴涨，也被一部分市场人士视为“跟谁学”反击市场做空力量的狙击战。</p><p>也有一种说法，6月16日是“跟谁学”6周年庆典，陈向东需要公司股价大涨来支撑士气。有细心人分析称，“跟谁学”15日股价最高到55.88，收盘价52.00，都是很喜庆的数字，就凭这个，Larry陈都应该给操盘团队发一个奖。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/308/w655h453/20200616/db40-iuzasxs9569601.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>无论何种原因，至少从目前看，这次大涨迫使部分做空者割肉平仓。难怪Larry陈在6月初接受某媒体采访时，自信满满地说，“我不关心股价”。</p><p>不仅如此，Larry陈还警告做空者说，“做空有两种结果。一种公司别说9次做空，中间就扛不住了;另外一种是来这么多次我都能扛，然后而且我会越来越牛，让他(做空者)亏钱。”</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/168/w808h160/20200616/a0bc-iuzasxs9569746.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>15日晚，Larry的确让很多做空者亏钱了。但从市场投资人的士气看，单靠这次上涨要完全化解做空者的动能，恐怕没有那么容易。</p><p>毕竟，投资人对“跟谁学”业绩造假的共识已经冰冻三尺，“跟谁学”一旦不能维持高高在上的股价，便是雪山崩塌之时，瑞幸便是最好的前车之鉴。</p><p>获客成本是1000还是10000?</p><p>引发做空机构最大质疑的是，“跟谁学”的业绩“好到不真实”，转型一年就实现盈利，成立仅5年就上市，上市不到一年市值就超过百亿，而且是美元!具体说，“跟谁学”连续八个季度利润实现同比增长，增速超4倍，而陈学东前东家新东方旗下的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>这样的巨头都没实现盈利，“跟谁学”的业绩奇迹是如何实现的?</p><p>做空机构浑水Muddy Waters Research)创始人卡森·布洛克(Carson Block)在邮件回复《经济观察报》采访时，对跟谁学(GSX.US)的点评就是“Liars lie(骗子的谎言)。”</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/95/w600h295/20200616/88ef-iuzasxs9569749.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>IPO君注意到，跟谁学在反驳做空机构质疑时，曾表示，外界根本不懂跟谁学的商业模式，跟谁学强调其独特的名师经纪人模式和超低的获客成本。跟谁学 CFO 沈楠透露2019年跟谁学全年加权平均获客成本为 470 元，2019年一季度，跟谁学的获客成本增至978元。但是，在线教育行业平均获客成本都高达几千元。例如，VIPKID创始人米雯娟曾透露其单个获客成本平均为4000元，而纯线上培训机构<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STG\">尚德机构</a>获客成本也高达4970元。</p><p>后浪“跟谁学”为何获客成本仅为行业前浪们的1/10或者1/4?是后浪太厉害了，还是前浪不行了?</p><p>为了弄清楚跟谁学的真实获客成本，IPO君前几天加入了一个“跟谁学”英语训练营，需要讲一下的是，“跟谁学”在微信某知名微信公众号投放了一篇导流软文，该公众号根据其流量测算，其单篇投放价格应在15W元以上。那么，“跟谁学”本次投放效果如何呢?</p><p>截至6月16日，该文章阅读量接近5W，但有限的几条评论貌似都是跟谁学的水军。</p><p>IPO君加入该软文导流的两个群，一个少儿群，一个成人群，截至16日开课，两个群的人数大约300。需要说明的是，这个在线英语培训课程为其4天，每天一次，完全免费。</p><p>虽然跟谁学号称这个英语班有1400多人报名，但IPO君在在线课堂上看到的只是很多疑似<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>的机械式的同样句式的回复。</p><p>老师据称是跟谁学的名师，可是给IPO君的感觉，这位老师不是在教英文课，而是在上中文课。</p><p>尼玛，好歹都进化到21世纪20年代了，跟谁学的老师居然还在用中文的句式分析英文语法，跟谁学名师一举将中国青少年英语教育水准拉回到20年前。难怪了，这种模式就像Larry陈说的，一般人根本看不懂。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/546/w862h484/20200616/4f10-iuzasxs9569848.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>IPO君在跟谁学的在线课堂上呆了5分钟，就落荒而逃了。你们感受下“跟我学”的英文材料。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/465/w520h745/20200616/7917-iuzasxs9569836.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>课后，跟谁学的帮助老师(助教)在微信群里布置了作业，还告诉学员，在第二天18点前不交作业的，会被“抱出群”。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020616/289/w536h553/20200616/837b-iuzasxs9569906.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>无路吐槽了。IPO君给你算算跟谁学的获客成本吧。这个课虽然是免费的，但跟谁学显然希望利用这个免费课获得新的付费学生。据IPO君统计，第二天上课前，两个群里300名学生，按照要求在群里提交作业的约为10%，4天免费课结束后，假设有50%的交作业的学生转化为付费学生，那么按10W-15W的营销成本计算，跟谁学的获客成本高达6666元-10000元!</p><p>问题是，交作业的学生中付费转化率高达50%，对在线教育来说，恐怕是个难以实现的数字。</p><p>Larry陈宣称的跟谁学低至数百元的获客成本到底是如何实现的，恐怕是一个谜;他所说的120万名(还是人次??)付费学生到底在哪里?是存在电脑里吗，还是画在纸上的“豆兵”?</p><p>全世界做空者都在等待“跟谁学”以及Larry陈给出一个真诚的答案。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚，我潜入“跟谁学”课堂，了解了一些真相</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚，我潜入“跟谁学”课堂，了解了一些真相\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-06-16 20:00 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-16/doc-iirczymk7359495.shtml><strong>雪球</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题：全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚，我潜入“跟谁学”课堂，了解了一些真相 来源：雪球6月15日夜，或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈（陈向东）最兴奋的时候。这一晚，“跟谁学”股价一路暴涨，最高至55.88元，最终收盘52.00元，涨幅20.82%，创下该股上市以来的新高！市值也达到了124亿美元（约合840亿人民币）。当晚，伴随着“跟谁学”一路大涨，则...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-16/doc-iirczymk7359495.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2946b9cd4befcf808691bc00a8ecb1be","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方","TAL":"好未来"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/relnews/us/2020-06-16/doc-iirczymk7359495.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2043363773","content_text":"原标题：全民做空股“跟谁学”暴涨20%那晚，我潜入“跟谁学”课堂，了解了一些真相 来源：雪球6月15日夜，或许是纽交所上市的中概股“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)创始人Larry陈（陈向东）最兴奋的时候。这一晚，“跟谁学”股价一路暴涨，最高至55.88元，最终收盘52.00元，涨幅20.82%，创下该股上市以来的新高！市值也达到了124亿美元（约合840亿人民币）。当晚，伴随着“跟谁学”一路大涨，则是做空“跟谁学”的投资人不断平仓、关灯、吃面。在雪球上，一部分投资人一边哀嚎着割肉，一边宣誓改日再战；一部分投资人则继续加大做空仓位，甚至做好了“跟谁学”股价涨至80美元-100美元的准备。股价一路绿上天不得不承认的是，“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)15日晚的暴涨不仅碾压了做空者，即使是相信跟谁学、持有其股票的投资人也颇感意外。15日中概股是普涨行情，京东涨2.62%，百度涨0.47%，有道涨14.38%，蔚来汽车涨11.97%，哔哩哔哩涨6.52%，腾讯音乐涨3.66%，拼多多涨6.24%，但涨幅最高的还是“跟谁学”。同为中概教育股，“跟谁学”的前辈新东方(NYSE:EDU)股价是下跌的，好未来(NYSE:TAL)也仅上涨了1.77%。让无数做空者心中窝火的是，为何跟谁学能一枝独绿绿上天？稍微了解“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)被做空历史的投资人，都会对这种暴涨行情目瞪口呆。在过去3个月里，“跟谁学”被4家境外做空机构持续做空9次，浑水（MuddyWaters Research）、香橼（Citron Research）、天蝎（Scorpio VC）、灰熊（Grizzly Research），这些国际上最知名的做空机构先后加入了做空“跟谁学”(NYSE:GSX)的队伍。据统计，仅在5月份，做空“跟谁学”的资金就增加了1.43亿美元，做空总规模高达8.15亿美元，占“跟谁学”流通股的21%。因此，15日晚的暴涨，也被一部分市场人士视为“跟谁学”反击市场做空力量的狙击战。也有一种说法，6月16日是“跟谁学”6周年庆典，陈向东需要公司股价大涨来支撑士气。有细心人分析称，“跟谁学”15日股价最高到55.88，收盘价52.00，都是很喜庆的数字，就凭这个，Larry陈都应该给操盘团队发一个奖。无论何种原因，至少从目前看，这次大涨迫使部分做空者割肉平仓。难怪Larry陈在6月初接受某媒体采访时，自信满满地说，“我不关心股价”。不仅如此，Larry陈还警告做空者说，“做空有两种结果。一种公司别说9次做空，中间就扛不住了;另外一种是来这么多次我都能扛，然后而且我会越来越牛，让他(做空者)亏钱。”15日晚，Larry的确让很多做空者亏钱了。但从市场投资人的士气看，单靠这次上涨要完全化解做空者的动能，恐怕没有那么容易。毕竟，投资人对“跟谁学”业绩造假的共识已经冰冻三尺，“跟谁学”一旦不能维持高高在上的股价，便是雪山崩塌之时，瑞幸便是最好的前车之鉴。获客成本是1000还是10000?引发做空机构最大质疑的是，“跟谁学”的业绩“好到不真实”，转型一年就实现盈利，成立仅5年就上市，上市不到一年市值就超过百亿，而且是美元!具体说，“跟谁学”连续八个季度利润实现同比增长，增速超4倍，而陈学东前东家新东方旗下的新东方在线这样的巨头都没实现盈利，“跟谁学”的业绩奇迹是如何实现的?做空机构浑水Muddy Waters Research)创始人卡森·布洛克(Carson Block)在邮件回复《经济观察报》采访时，对跟谁学(GSX.US)的点评就是“Liars lie(骗子的谎言)。”IPO君注意到，跟谁学在反驳做空机构质疑时，曾表示，外界根本不懂跟谁学的商业模式，跟谁学强调其独特的名师经纪人模式和超低的获客成本。跟谁学 CFO 沈楠透露2019年跟谁学全年加权平均获客成本为 470 元，2019年一季度，跟谁学的获客成本增至978元。但是，在线教育行业平均获客成本都高达几千元。例如，VIPKID创始人米雯娟曾透露其单个获客成本平均为4000元，而纯线上培训机构尚德机构获客成本也高达4970元。后浪“跟谁学”为何获客成本仅为行业前浪们的1/10或者1/4?是后浪太厉害了，还是前浪不行了?为了弄清楚跟谁学的真实获客成本，IPO君前几天加入了一个“跟谁学”英语训练营，需要讲一下的是，“跟谁学”在微信某知名微信公众号投放了一篇导流软文，该公众号根据其流量测算，其单篇投放价格应在15W元以上。那么，“跟谁学”本次投放效果如何呢?截至6月16日，该文章阅读量接近5W，但有限的几条评论貌似都是跟谁学的水军。IPO君加入该软文导流的两个群，一个少儿群，一个成人群，截至16日开课，两个群的人数大约300。需要说明的是，这个在线英语培训课程为其4天，每天一次，完全免费。虽然跟谁学号称这个英语班有1400多人报名，但IPO君在在线课堂上看到的只是很多疑似机器人的机械式的同样句式的回复。老师据称是跟谁学的名师，可是给IPO君的感觉，这位老师不是在教英文课，而是在上中文课。尼玛，好歹都进化到21世纪20年代了，跟谁学的老师居然还在用中文的句式分析英文语法，跟谁学名师一举将中国青少年英语教育水准拉回到20年前。难怪了，这种模式就像Larry陈说的，一般人根本看不懂。IPO君在跟谁学的在线课堂上呆了5分钟，就落荒而逃了。你们感受下“跟我学”的英文材料。课后，跟谁学的帮助老师(助教)在微信群里布置了作业，还告诉学员，在第二天18点前不交作业的，会被“抱出群”。无路吐槽了。IPO君给你算算跟谁学的获客成本吧。这个课虽然是免费的，但跟谁学显然希望利用这个免费课获得新的付费学生。据IPO君统计，第二天上课前，两个群里300名学生，按照要求在群里提交作业的约为10%，4天免费课结束后，假设有50%的交作业的学生转化为付费学生，那么按10W-15W的营销成本计算，跟谁学的获客成本高达6666元-10000元!问题是，交作业的学生中付费转化率高达50%，对在线教育来说，恐怕是个难以实现的数字。Larry陈宣称的跟谁学低至数百元的获客成本到底是如何实现的，恐怕是一个谜;他所说的120万名(还是人次??)付费学生到底在哪里?是存在电脑里吗，还是画在纸上的“豆兵”?全世界做空者都在等待“跟谁学”以及Larry陈给出一个真诚的答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":923038676,"gmtCreate":1585651428895,"gmtModify":1704358524234,"author":{"id":"3546862320475513","authorId":"3546862320475513","name":"清墨","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4ae208c43cb350d8062af654c8660b1","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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