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alecych
2022-01-18
最后这半句说的好没底气
美债收益率再创新高，它一涨全球市场都要跌，到底怎么回事？
alecych
2021-08-08
山雨欲来风满楼
抱歉，原内容已删除
alecych
2021-08-06
马化腾：开始以为是要钱，现在发现是要命。
抱歉，原内容已删除
alecych
2021-08-06
美股蹭蹭涨，咱们内斗个不停
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alecych
2021-08-06
最近这些媒体集体嗑药了？
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alecych
2021-08-03
没完没了了
抱歉，原内容已删除
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19:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美债收益率再创新高，它一涨全球市场都要跌，到底怎么回事？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162570351","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"究竟什么是美债收益率？近段时间为什么飙升？它对金融市场的影响又是什么？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月18日，不安分的美债又开始搞事情了。</p><p>周二亚洲时段开盘伊始，10年期美债收益率盘初就迅速升破1.81%关口，创下2020年1月以来的最高位。</p><p>2年期美债收益率也突破1%，为2020年2月以来首次。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa2825683acd2ba6e501453d101084f4\" tg-width=\"725\" tg-height=\"933\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>其结果是……截至发稿，美股三大指数期货及欧洲股市都在下跌。</p><p>究竟什么是美债收益率？近段时间为什么飙升？它对金融市场的影响又是什么？</p><p>今天，我们就来系统聊一聊这些问题。</p><p><b>什么是美债收益率？</b></p><p>通俗地说，美债收益率就是你投资购买美国国债后，所能够得到的利息。</p><p>比如，当前美国十年期国债收益率约为1.36%，它代表着，如果你花1万元购买这种债券，并持有十年，那么每年你将获得136元的利息收入。</p><p>按照持有到期期限的不同，美国国债有1年期、2年期、10年期、30年期的。</p><p>并且，由于持有时间越长，风险越大，通常需要一定收益补偿，所以一般来说，持有到期期限时间越长的债券，收益率就越高，10年期的美国国债，收益率就是大部分时候都比1年期的高。</p><p><b>美债收益率攀升可能会产生什么影响？</b></p><p>简单来说，对大多数投资者而言，最直接的影响就是，可能会使得股票市场承压下跌，进而影响到每个人的钱袋子。</p><p>为什么呢？</p><p>根据DDM估值模型，股票估值跟无风险收益率是反比关系，10年期美债收益率被广泛认定为“无风险收益率”，被视为全球资产定价之“锚”，它一上涨，就意味着全球股票市场可能会面临杀估值。</p><p>从历史上来看，美债收益率大幅飙升时，股市都出现过较大的回撤。</p><p>2013年5月，由美联储的前主席贝南克言论引发的缩减恐慌，导致美国国债的实际收益率在5月至7月间上升了130BP，导致标普500指数下跌16%。</p><p>2015年5月，当时全球处于再通胀交易的热潮中，但随后美债收益率攀升，美联储在2015年12月开始加息，股市大跌43%，油价大跌55%。</p><p>2018年1月，当时美国国债实际收益率上升40BP，同期全球股市下跌19%。</p><p>事实上，21年初全球市场的杀跌，一定程度上也跟当时的美债收益率飙升有关。</p><p><b>为什么飙升？</b></p><p>简单拉一波数据，本轮10年期美债收益率大概是从去年12月10日的相对低点1.426附近快速上行至目前的1.841%附近，一个多月上涨42BP，其主要驱动力是实际利率上行，其次是通胀预期。</p><p>为什么这样说？美国10年期国债收益率其实可以看做是两方面组成：实际利率+通胀预期，实际利率和通胀预期的上行都能推动美10年期国债收益率走高。</p><p>本轮美债收益率的这波上行，实际收益率（TIPS）贡献了约7成，通胀预期贡献了约3成。</p><p>中信证券指出，美国在经济基本面稳步复苏、通胀持续高位运行、疫情扰动有限的背景下，美联储提前加息的必要性以及提前缩表的可能性，其预示的美联储紧缩加速推动美债利率快速提升。</p><p>德邦证券也指出，近期美债利率的快速上行主要来自于：1)货币紧缩周期前置→流动性紧缩预期升温；2)新一轮疫情冲击影响淡化→增长风险溢价上修；3)近期美联储高官发言密集→市场在增量鹰派信号来临前“抢跑”。</p><p><b>后市影响如何？</b></p><p>德邦证券表示，目前来看，如果美联储在1月25-26日FOMC声明中释放增量的紧缩信号（例如暗示加息将提前至3月），不排除10年美债利率中枢站稳1.8%、突破1.9%的可能。</p><p>平安证券表示，考虑到联储3月加息的共识度越来越高，接近充分就业背景下，薪资增速也将维持高企，美债短端利率高企的同时，长端利率可能在通胀预期强势的驱动下进一步上行，存在突破1.8%甚至2.0%的可能性。</p><p>天风证券表示，结合联储操作框架与历史经验，预计在1月议息会议后，如果市场的加息预期被强化，十年期美债收益率可能迅速调整至2.0%附近；如果后续公布的经济数据仍支持当前逻辑，未来不排除突破2%的可能性。回到国内，天风证券认为，央行货币政策在大方向上还是“以我为主”。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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{color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美债收益率再创新高，它一涨全球市场都要跌，到底怎么回事？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-18 19:20 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650006><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月18日，不安分的美债又开始搞事情了。周二亚洲时段开盘伊始，10年期美债收益率盘初就迅速升破1.81%关口，创下2020年1月以来的最高位。2年期美债收益率也突破1%，为2020年2月以来首次。其结果是……截至发稿，美股三大指数期货及欧洲股市都在下跌。究竟什么是美债收益率？近段时间为什么飙升？它对金融市场的影响又是什么？今天，我们就来系统聊一聊这些问题。什么是美债收益率？通俗地说，美债收益率就是...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650006\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d4eb38b95a6b8cf963d8108ff90eb2e3","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3650006","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1162570351","content_text":"1月18日，不安分的美债又开始搞事情了。周二亚洲时段开盘伊始，10年期美债收益率盘初就迅速升破1.81%关口，创下2020年1月以来的最高位。2年期美债收益率也突破1%，为2020年2月以来首次。其结果是……截至发稿，美股三大指数期货及欧洲股市都在下跌。究竟什么是美债收益率？近段时间为什么飙升？它对金融市场的影响又是什么？今天，我们就来系统聊一聊这些问题。什么是美债收益率？通俗地说，美债收益率就是你投资购买美国国债后，所能够得到的利息。比如，当前美国十年期国债收益率约为1.36%，它代表着，如果你花1万元购买这种债券，并持有十年，那么每年你将获得136元的利息收入。按照持有到期期限的不同，美国国债有1年期、2年期、10年期、30年期的。并且，由于持有时间越长，风险越大，通常需要一定收益补偿，所以一般来说，持有到期期限时间越长的债券，收益率就越高，10年期的美国国债，收益率就是大部分时候都比1年期的高。美债收益率攀升可能会产生什么影响？简单来说，对大多数投资者而言，最直接的影响就是，可能会使得股票市场承压下跌，进而影响到每个人的钱袋子。为什么呢？根据DDM估值模型，股票估值跟无风险收益率是反比关系，10年期美债收益率被广泛认定为“无风险收益率”，被视为全球资产定价之“锚”，它一上涨，就意味着全球股票市场可能会面临杀估值。从历史上来看，美债收益率大幅飙升时，股市都出现过较大的回撤。2013年5月，由美联储的前主席贝南克言论引发的缩减恐慌，导致美国国债的实际收益率在5月至7月间上升了130BP，导致标普500指数下跌16%。2015年5月，当时全球处于再通胀交易的热潮中，但随后美债收益率攀升，美联储在2015年12月开始加息，股市大跌43%，油价大跌55%。2018年1月，当时美国国债实际收益率上升40BP，同期全球股市下跌19%。事实上，21年初全球市场的杀跌，一定程度上也跟当时的美债收益率飙升有关。为什么飙升？简单拉一波数据，本轮10年期美债收益率大概是从去年12月10日的相对低点1.426附近快速上行至目前的1.841%附近，一个多月上涨42BP，其主要驱动力是实际利率上行，其次是通胀预期。为什么这样说？美国10年期国债收益率其实可以看做是两方面组成：实际利率+通胀预期，实际利率和通胀预期的上行都能推动美10年期国债收益率走高。本轮美债收益率的这波上行，实际收益率（TIPS）贡献了约7成，通胀预期贡献了约3成。中信证券指出，美国在经济基本面稳步复苏、通胀持续高位运行、疫情扰动有限的背景下，美联储提前加息的必要性以及提前缩表的可能性，其预示的美联储紧缩加速推动美债利率快速提升。德邦证券也指出，近期美债利率的快速上行主要来自于：1)货币紧缩周期前置→流动性紧缩预期升温；2)新一轮疫情冲击影响淡化→增长风险溢价上修；3)近期美联储高官发言密集→市场在增量鹰派信号来临前“抢跑”。后市影响如何？德邦证券表示，目前来看，如果美联储在1月25-26日FOMC声明中释放增量的紧缩信号（例如暗示加息将提前至3月），不排除10年美债利率中枢站稳1.8%、突破1.9%的可能。平安证券表示，考虑到联储3月加息的共识度越来越高，接近充分就业背景下，薪资增速也将维持高企，美债短端利率高企的同时，长端利率可能在通胀预期强势的驱动下进一步上行，存在突破1.8%甚至2.0%的可能性。天风证券表示，结合联储操作框架与历史经验，预计在1月议息会议后，如果市场的加息预期被强化，十年期美债收益率可能迅速调整至2.0%附近；如果后续公布的经济数据仍支持当前逻辑，未来不排除突破2%的可能性。回到国内，天风证券认为，央行货币政策在大方向上还是“以我为主”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":891507328,"gmtCreate":1628396636964,"gmtModify":1628396636964,"author":{"id":"3544651407400718","authorId":"3544651407400718","name":"alecych","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/633d112d9adff76b8cc37d4a436bdfd3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544651407400718","authorIdStr":"3544651407400718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"山雨欲来风满楼","listText":"山雨欲来风满楼","text":"山雨欲来风满楼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891507328","repostId":"1105036856","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1245,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":893234875,"gmtCreate":1628263620697,"gmtModify":1628263620697,"author":{"id":"3544651407400718","authorId":"3544651407400718","name":"alecych","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/633d112d9adff76b8cc37d4a436bdfd3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544651407400718","authorIdStr":"3544651407400718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"马化腾：开始以为是要钱，现在发现是要命。","listText":"马化腾：开始以为是要钱，现在发现是要命。","text":"马化腾：开始以为是要钱，现在发现是要命。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893234875","repostId":"1114704329","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":893629505,"gmtCreate":1628260251907,"gmtModify":1628260251907,"author":{"id":"3544651407400718","authorId":"3544651407400718","name":"alecych","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/633d112d9adff76b8cc37d4a436bdfd3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544651407400718","authorIdStr":"3544651407400718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"美股蹭蹭涨，咱们内斗个不停","listText":"美股蹭蹭涨，咱们内斗个不停","text":"美股蹭蹭涨，咱们内斗个不停","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893629505","repostId":"1114704329","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":893637399,"gmtCreate":1628258976011,"gmtModify":1628258976011,"author":{"id":"3544651407400718","authorId":"3544651407400718","name":"alecych","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/633d112d9adff76b8cc37d4a436bdfd3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3544651407400718","authorIdStr":"3544651407400718"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"最近这些媒体集体嗑药了？","listText":"最近这些媒体集体嗑药了？","text":"最近这些媒体集体嗑药了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893637399","repostId":"1105646416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1422,"authorTweetTopS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