在18楼看风景的个人主页 - 老虎社区

在18楼看风景

在18楼看风景

呵呵呵heg

IP属地：北京

186关注

60粉丝

4主题

0勋章

在18楼看风景

09-11

nicw

Apple: Why Buffett Might Be Right

在18楼看风景

08-30

Ggggggggghghhjjjjjkjkkj

在18楼看风景

08-28

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@小苹果儿儿:Nice

在18楼看风景

08-22

nice

@FrankAllin:记史诗级波动的一天

在18楼看风景

08-12

哈哈

@科迪勒拉:周末慢聊：SAVA将何去何从？我从这笔投资赚了多少？得到了哪些教训?

在18楼看风景

06-18

Nice

抱歉，原内容已删除

在18楼看风景

06-18

Nice

超薄！iPhone 17 Slim前瞻：工业设计脱胎换骨

在18楼看风景

06-18

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

抱歉，原内容已删除

在18楼看风景

06-06

在18楼看风景

06-06

在18楼看风景

05-31

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

直播：伊朗总统坠机，对全球能源的影响几何？

在18楼看风景

05-15

$LU0130103400(LU0130103400.USD)$ 热

在18楼看风景

05-15

Hhhhhhhh

Hhbbbbb

在18楼看风景

05-15

Ggggggghhggggggggggg

在18楼看风景

05-15

D

在18楼看风景

05-15

E

在18楼看风景

05-09

$苹果(AAPL)$ @新加坡10 [呆住][呆住][呆住][呆住][呆住]

@想要带你去浪漫的土耳其:$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 还差一根导火线

在18楼看风景

05-09

[得意]

@Bourse2022:全天候收割，资本永不眠呀[贱笑]

在18楼看风景

04-25

$苹果(AAPL)$ hhhhhhhhhyyfyxyfych

在18楼看风景

04-25

哈哈哈哈哈哈转发

@在18楼看风景:坚持努力就是最好的自己

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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10:56","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Apple: Why Buffett Might Be Right","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462429926","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Apple's shares surged after the introduction of Apple Intelligence, but macro risks and Berkshire Hathaway's selling signal caution.Q3 showed revenue growth and strong performance in services, Mac, an","content":"<html><head></head><body><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Apple&#39;s shares surged after the introduction of Apple Intelligence, but macro risks and Berkshire Hathaway&#39;s selling signal caution.</p></li><li><p>Q3 showed revenue growth and strong performance in services, Mac, and iPad, but challenges in China and AI revenue potential remain.</p></li><li><p>Despite recent growth, Apple&#39;s stock is overvalued with little margin of safety, making it a HOLD at best at the current price.</p></li></ul><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bf19c4031ec7fcb6c671b889cc94a668\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"500\"/></p><p>gece33</p><p></p><p>For a long time, Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) was struggling to revive growth as its revenues were declining last year, its advantage in the smartphone market was slowly waning, and its shares were struggling to establish a solid support level at above $200 per share. However, after the introduction of Apple Intelligence earlier this summer, the shares have jumped, while analysts began to raise the growth forecasts to reflect Apple’s entrance into the generative AI field.</p><p>The problem though is that after the recent run-up, Apple’s shares appear to offer little margin of safety, while macro risks continue to increase and the selling of shares by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) doesn’t send a positive signal to the market. That’s why even though Apple’s entrance into the generative AI field is likely to be beneficial for the company, its stock is a HOLD at best at the current market price.</p><h2 id=\"id_4128084373\">Apple Makes A Comeback</h2><p>Back in June, I noted that while Apple’s entrance into the generative AI field has been met with excitement, the upside to the company’s shares could be limited due to the rising number of challenges that the business is facing. While Apple’s shares have appreciated by around 5% since that time, I still believe that further growth is not guaranteed. However, it would be foolish not to state that the company’s performance has indeed improved in recent quarters, and the recent quarter was not an exception.</p><p>If we look closely at the Q3 earnings report, which was released earlier this month, we’ll see that Apple’s revenues were $85.78 billion. That translates to a Y/Y growth rate of 4.87%, which is the highest annual growth rate in nearly two years.</p><p>The successful performance of Apple’s services business has been one of the most notable things that happened in Q3. During the quarter, the services revenues increased by 14% Y/Y to $24.2 billion, which is a new record for the company. By having over 1 billion paid subscriptions, it makes sense to assume that the services business will continue to be a major cash cow for Apple, since customers who use the company’s products have no other choice but to be a part of its ecosystem. That’s why it’s not a surprise that the management expects the services business to continue to grow at a double-digit rate.</p><p>It&#39;s also important to note that Apple’s Mac and iPad revenues were also up Y/Y primarily thanks to the recent launches of new laptops and tablets. With back-to-school season around the corner, Apple’s MacBooks and iPads will likely continue to be in high demand in Q4.</p><p>On top of all of that, some analysts believe that Apple will start charging up to $20 fee for the premium features of Apple Intelligence in the future. If true, this could help Apple create a new high-margin income stream in a relatively short time. By offering paid versions of their generative AI products, both OpenAI and Microsoft (MSFT) saw their revenues skyrocket recently. Apple could experience the same thing happening to it if enough of its customers opt in for Apple Intelligence’s paid features.</p><p>All of this points out the fact that Apple’s leadership team has finally found a way to revive growth, which was much needed after several quarters of Y/Y revenue declines in nearly two years. While Apple’s revenues are expected to increase by less than 2% this year, the upcoming release of the new iPhone, greater penetration of Apple Intelligence, and the potential increase in services sales, could indeed create a scenario under which the company’s revenues grow at top single-digit rates in FY25 and beyond. The street has already made dozens of upward revenue and earnings revisions in recent months, which is an indication that things are improving inside Apple.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b0409c641461bf3cf670461ae897990d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"124\"/></p><p>Apple&#39;s Revisions (Seeking Alpha)</p><p></p><h2 id=\"id_1689660359\">The Growth Is Not Guaranteed</h2><p>Despite all of the growth opportunities described earlier in this article, Apple also continues to face several major challenges that could undermine its growth story. While some of the company’s businesses experienced major growth during the recent quarter, its iPhone sales declined from $39.67 billion in Q3’23 to $39.30 billion in Q3’24. The decline could be attributed to the company’s poor performance in China.</p><p>The latest earnings report showed that Apple’s sales in Greater China were down 6.5% Y/Y to $14.7 billion. What’s more is that the iPhone’s market share in China decreased to only 14%, while China’s phone markets such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and others experienced growth and improved their positions in the Chinese smartphone market. Considering the inability of the company to revive growth in China, there’s a risk that it would be harder for Apple to meet its goals and especially exceed expectations in the future.</p><p>At the same time, some investors might be disappointed about the potential revenues that Apple Intelligence will generate, since the company’s major generative AI tools are not expected to be released in China and Europe in the foreseeable future.</p><p>What’s more, is that the recent selling of shares by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is not sending a positive signal to the market. While Warren Buffett stated that Apple will remain in his portfolio and his firm currently owns about 400 million shares, he nevertheless sold over ~500 million shares in the first half of the year. This could be viewed by someone as the signal to also sell shares as the upside could be limited, especially after the recent rally.</p><p>Considering all of this, it seems that Apple’s stock also doesn’t provide enough margin of safety for investors at the current price. My DCF model from June showed that the company’s fair value is $176.30 per share. Given the successful performance in Q3, I made some upward revisions to the revenues and EBIT in the new model, which can be seen below.</p><p>The assumptions for revenues and EBIT in the new model closely align with the overall expectations for the following years. The expectations for other metrics in my model correlate with Apple’s historical performance. The WACC of 8% closely aligns with the market’s average cost of capital, while the terminal growth rate of 3% mirrors the average inflation and GDP growth rate.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5e6cadf92dcc4fa7be44bb1f7b8812d0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"317\"/></p><p>Apple&#39;s DCF Model (Historical Data: Seeking Alpha, Assumptions: Author)</p><p></p><p>Thanks to several upward revisions, the updated model shows that Apple’s fair value is $182.26 per share. While it’s slightly above the previous calculations, we nevertheless see that Apple remains overvalued at the current price and offers little margin of safety for investors.</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a21d58cfb7102829aa297d63694cc979\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"137\"/></p><p>Apple&#39;s DCF Model (Historical Data: Seeking Alpha, Assumptions: Author)</p><p></p><p>While the company’s shares mostly were able to recover from the latest depreciation caused by the broader market selloff, it’s still hard to justify a long position at the current price. By trading at over 30 times its forward earnings and over 8 times its forward sales, it seems that it’s better to look for alternative investment elsewhere, especially since the China-related risks remain.</p><h2 id=\"id_4070538431\">The Bottom Line</h2><p>Apple is, without a doubt, a great company; but unfortunately, it trades at a relatively high price right now, which offers little margin of safety for investors. While it’s good to see the company returning to growth, Apple’s upside is likely to be limited due to the rising challenges that it faces, which could undermine its growth story. The fact that one of its biggest investors is selling his position also doesn’t send a positive signal to the market. That’s why at this stage Apple is only a HOLD for me as it’s likely that its shares will trade in-line with the rest of the market until the release of the Q4 earnings report in November.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple: Why Buffett Might Be Right</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple: Why Buffett Might Be Right\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-27 10:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717194-apple-why-buffett-might-be-right><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Apple's shares surged after the introduction of Apple Intelligence, but macro risks and Berkshire Hathaway's selling signal caution.Q3 showed revenue growth and strong performance in services, Mac, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717194-apple-why-buffett-might-be-right\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4577":"网络游戏","BK4538":"云计算","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","IE00B775H168.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON BALANCED \"A5M\" (HKD) INC","IE00BDRTCR15.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"ADC\" (USD) INC A","IE00B5949003.HKD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","IE000W1ABFV2.USD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"R\" (USD) INC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC","IE00B19Z8X17.USD":"FTGF CLEARBRIDGE US LARGE CAP GROWTH  \"AG\" (USD) ACC","IE0003U64NQ7.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE000KEQY171.SGD":"PIMCO BALANCED INCOME AND GROWTH \"M\" (SGDHDG) INC","BRK.A":"伯克希尔","LU1074936037.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - 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However, after the introduction of Apple Intelligence earlier this summer, the shares have jumped, while analysts began to raise the growth forecasts to reflect Apple’s entrance into the generative AI field.The problem though is that after the recent run-up, Apple’s shares appear to offer little margin of safety, while macro risks continue to increase and the selling of shares by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)(BRK.B) doesn’t send a positive signal to the market. That’s why even though Apple’s entrance into the generative AI field is likely to be beneficial for the company, its stock is a HOLD at best at the current market price.Apple Makes A ComebackBack in June, I noted that while Apple’s entrance into the generative AI field has been met with excitement, the upside to the company’s shares could be limited due to the rising number of challenges that the business is facing. While Apple’s shares have appreciated by around 5% since that time, I still believe that further growth is not guaranteed. However, it would be foolish not to state that the company’s performance has indeed improved in recent quarters, and the recent quarter was not an exception.If we look closely at the Q3 earnings report, which was released earlier this month, we’ll see that Apple’s revenues were $85.78 billion. That translates to a Y/Y growth rate of 4.87%, which is the highest annual growth rate in nearly two years.The successful performance of Apple’s services business has been one of the most notable things that happened in Q3. During the quarter, the services revenues increased by 14% Y/Y to $24.2 billion, which is a new record for the company. By having over 1 billion paid subscriptions, it makes sense to assume that the services business will continue to be a major cash cow for Apple, since customers who use the company’s products have no other choice but to be a part of its ecosystem. That’s why it’s not a surprise that the management expects the services business to continue to grow at a double-digit rate.It's also important to note that Apple’s Mac and iPad revenues were also up Y/Y primarily thanks to the recent launches of new laptops and tablets. With back-to-school season around the corner, Apple’s MacBooks and iPads will likely continue to be in high demand in Q4.On top of all of that, some analysts believe that Apple will start charging up to $20 fee for the premium features of Apple Intelligence in the future. If true, this could help Apple create a new high-margin income stream in a relatively short time. By offering paid versions of their generative AI products, both OpenAI and Microsoft (MSFT) saw their revenues skyrocket recently. Apple could experience the same thing happening to it if enough of its customers opt in for Apple Intelligence’s paid features.All of this points out the fact that Apple’s leadership team has finally found a way to revive growth, which was much needed after several quarters of Y/Y revenue declines in nearly two years. While Apple’s revenues are expected to increase by less than 2% this year, the upcoming release of the new iPhone, greater penetration of Apple Intelligence, and the potential increase in services sales, could indeed create a scenario under which the company’s revenues grow at top single-digit rates in FY25 and beyond. The street has already made dozens of upward revenue and earnings revisions in recent months, which is an indication that things are improving inside Apple.Apple's Revisions (Seeking Alpha)The Growth Is Not GuaranteedDespite all of the growth opportunities described earlier in this article, Apple also continues to face several major challenges that could undermine its growth story. While some of the company’s businesses experienced major growth during the recent quarter, its iPhone sales declined from $39.67 billion in Q3’23 to $39.30 billion in Q3’24. The decline could be attributed to the company’s poor performance in China.The latest earnings report showed that Apple’s sales in Greater China were down 6.5% Y/Y to $14.7 billion. What’s more is that the iPhone’s market share in China decreased to only 14%, while China’s phone markets such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and others experienced growth and improved their positions in the Chinese smartphone market. Considering the inability of the company to revive growth in China, there’s a risk that it would be harder for Apple to meet its goals and especially exceed expectations in the future.At the same time, some investors might be disappointed about the potential revenues that Apple Intelligence will generate, since the company’s major generative AI tools are not expected to be released in China and Europe in the foreseeable future.What’s more, is that the recent selling of shares by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is not sending a positive signal to the market. While Warren Buffett stated that Apple will remain in his portfolio and his firm currently owns about 400 million shares, he nevertheless sold over ~500 million shares in the first half of the year. This could be viewed by someone as the signal to also sell shares as the upside could be limited, especially after the recent rally.Considering all of this, it seems that Apple’s stock also doesn’t provide enough margin of safety for investors at the current price. My DCF model from June showed that the company’s fair value is $176.30 per share. Given the successful performance in Q3, I made some upward revisions to the revenues and EBIT in the new model, which can be seen below.The assumptions for revenues and EBIT in the new model closely align with the overall expectations for the following years. The expectations for other metrics in my model correlate with Apple’s historical performance. The WACC of 8% closely aligns with the market’s average cost of capital, while the terminal growth rate of 3% mirrors the average inflation and GDP growth rate.Apple's DCF Model (Historical Data: Seeking Alpha, Assumptions: Author)Thanks to several upward revisions, the updated model shows that Apple’s fair value is $182.26 per share. While it’s slightly above the previous calculations, we nevertheless see that Apple remains overvalued at the current price and offers little margin of safety for investors.Apple's DCF Model (Historical Data: Seeking Alpha, Assumptions: Author)While the company’s shares mostly were able to recover from the latest depreciation caused by the broader market selloff, it’s still hard to justify a long position at the current price. By trading at over 30 times its forward earnings and over 8 times its forward sales, it seems that it’s better to look for alternative investment elsewhere, especially since the China-related risks remain.The Bottom LineApple is, without a doubt, a great company; but unfortunately, it trades at a relatively high price right now, which offers little margin of safety for investors. While it’s good to see the company returning to growth, Apple’s upside is likely to be limited due to the rising challenges that it faces, which could undermine its growth story. The fact that one of its biggest investors is selling his position also doesn’t send a positive signal to the market. That’s why at this stage Apple is only a HOLD for me as it’s likely that its shares will trade in-line with the rest of the market until the release of the Q4 earnings report in November.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":382,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":344006939128192,"gmtCreate":1725010603433,"gmtModify":1725010604990,"author":{"id":"3539141933667343","authorId":"3539141933667343","name":"在18楼看风景","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c447c98b6b66b23b25324bc8f957da89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539141933667343","authorIdStr":"3539141933667343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ggggggggghghhjjjjjkjkkj","listText":"Ggggggggghghhjjjjjkjkkj","text":"Ggggggggghghhjjjjjkjkkj","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/344006939128192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":343285795094560,"gmtCreate":1724831240958,"gmtModify":1724831242624,"author":{"id":"3539141933667343","authorId":"3539141933667343","name":"在18楼看风景","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c447c98b6b66b23b25324bc8f957da89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539141933667343","authorIdStr":"3539141933667343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/343285795094560","repostId":"340778745282960","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":340778745282960,"gmtCreate":1724240043040,"gmtModify":1724240044479,"author":{"id":"3577074953058887","authorId":"3577074953058887","name":"小苹果儿儿","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afd4a49594359802f0b6f845787453fc","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577074953058887","authorIdStr":"3577074953058887"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/340778745282960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341164259365120,"gmtCreate":1724312605471,"gmtModify":1724312606840,"author":{"id":"3539141933667343","authorId":"3539141933667343","name":"在18楼看风景","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c447c98b6b66b23b25324bc8f957da89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539141933667343","authorIdStr":"3539141933667343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341164259365120","repostId":"335528628216232","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":335528628216232,"gmtCreate":1722952534297,"gmtModify":1723035603463,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546925022414459","authorIdStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"title":"记史诗级波动的一天","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667699676929\">@小虎交易笔记</a> 《实盘面对面》约稿从七月中旬以来，短短半个月时间，美股投资者就从天堂跌入地狱。极度恐慌的一天纳斯达克从高点回撤幅度超过15%，近三个交易日跌速明显加大。8月5日当天，开盘前的恐慌情绪达到了高潮，纳斯达克期指盘前最大跌幅达到了近8%，接近熔断位置。与此同时， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$</a> 狂飙150%到65的位置，为2020年疫情以来的最高。这一**跌的特点就是：突然，速度快且跌幅大，波动剧烈。总结下市场上的观点看来，有几大原因：1. 日元升值，导致原先已高度拥挤的日元套息交易进入到反向螺旋崩溃状态；2. 上周五非农数据大幅低于预期引发衰退担忧；3. 巴菲特对苹果的大额减持；4. 近期科技股财报大多不及预期；5. 对热战扩大化的担忧。个人观点，科技股尤其是半导体和ai相关板块的泡沫化是根本原因，而其后的推手，跟日元套系交易关系很大。日元加息扭转预期后，导致资金抽离，造成科技股剧烈波动，也符合杠杆市的特点。非农数据和巴菲特减持，不过是在本就摇摇欲坠的市场上踢上一脚。周一盘后，在恐慌情绪释放了一波同时，市场迎来了一波修复，vix也从65降到40左右的位置。市场见底了没有？这一波科技牛，很大程度是由杠杆推升的，随即的剧烈波动和大幅调整，也是杠杆带来的。大跌后，短期会有修复，但修复后怎么走还有待观察。在预期扭转之后，杠杆带来的正反馈有没有到头，目前还看不出来，后续仍然有大量科技股的财报，存在非常多的不确定性。在实际波动率没有收敛下来之前，我们很难说是否见底。近期市场大概率还是会处在高波动率的环境。&nbsp;个人操作反思尽管在上上周实盘面对面聊降息的时候","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667699676929\">@小虎交易笔记</a> 《实盘面对面》约稿从七月中旬以来，短短半个月时间，美股投资者就从天堂跌入地狱。极度恐慌的一天纳斯达克从高点回撤幅度超过15%，近三个交易日跌速明显加大。8月5日当天，开盘前的恐慌情绪达到了高潮，纳斯达克期指盘前最大跌幅达到了近8%，接近熔断位置。与此同时， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$</a> 狂飙150%到65的位置，为2020年疫情以来的最高。这一**跌的特点就是：突然，速度快且跌幅大，波动剧烈。总结下市场上的观点看来，有几大原因：1. 日元升值，导致原先已高度拥挤的日元套息交易进入到反向螺旋崩溃状态；2. 上周五非农数据大幅低于预期引发衰退担忧；3. 巴菲特对苹果的大额减持；4. 近期科技股财报大多不及预期；5. 对热战扩大化的担忧。个人观点，科技股尤其是半导体和ai相关板块的泡沫化是根本原因，而其后的推手，跟日元套系交易关系很大。日元加息扭转预期后，导致资金抽离，造成科技股剧烈波动，也符合杠杆市的特点。非农数据和巴菲特减持，不过是在本就摇摇欲坠的市场上踢上一脚。周一盘后，在恐慌情绪释放了一波同时，市场迎来了一波修复，vix也从65降到40左右的位置。市场见底了没有？这一波科技牛，很大程度是由杠杆推升的，随即的剧烈波动和大幅调整，也是杠杆带来的。大跌后，短期会有修复，但修复后怎么走还有待观察。在预期扭转之后，杠杆带来的正反馈有没有到头，目前还看不出来，后续仍然有大量科技股的财报，存在非常多的不确定性。在实际波动率没有收敛下来之前，我们很难说是否见底。近期市场大概率还是会处在高波动率的环境。&nbsp;个人操作反思尽管在上上周实盘面对面聊降息的时候","text":"@小虎交易笔记 《实盘面对面》约稿从七月中旬以来，短短半个月时间，美股投资者就从天堂跌入地狱。极度恐慌的一天纳斯达克从高点回撤幅度超过15%，近三个交易日跌速明显加大。8月5日当天，开盘前的恐慌情绪达到了高潮，纳斯达克期指盘前最大跌幅达到了近8%，接近熔断位置。与此同时， $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ 狂飙150%到65的位置，为2020年疫情以来的最高。这一**跌的特点就是：突然，速度快且跌幅大，波动剧烈。总结下市场上的观点看来，有几大原因：1. 日元升值，导致原先已高度拥挤的日元套息交易进入到反向螺旋崩溃状态；2. 上周五非农数据大幅低于预期引发衰退担忧；3. 巴菲特对苹果的大额减持；4. 近期科技股财报大多不及预期；5. 对热战扩大化的担忧。个人观点，科技股尤其是半导体和ai相关板块的泡沫化是根本原因，而其后的推手，跟日元套系交易关系很大。日元加息扭转预期后，导致资金抽离，造成科技股剧烈波动，也符合杠杆市的特点。非农数据和巴菲特减持，不过是在本就摇摇欲坠的市场上踢上一脚。周一盘后，在恐慌情绪释放了一波同时，市场迎来了一波修复，vix也从65降到40左右的位置。市场见底了没有？这一波科技牛，很大程度是由杠杆推升的，随即的剧烈波动和大幅调整，也是杠杆带来的。大跌后，短期会有修复，但修复后怎么走还有待观察。在预期扭转之后，杠杆带来的正反馈有没有到头，目前还看不出来，后续仍然有大量科技股的财报，存在非常多的不确定性。在实际波动率没有收敛下来之前，我们很难说是否见底。近期市场大概率还是会处在高波动率的环境。 个人操作反思尽管在上上周实盘面对面聊降息的时候","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335528628216232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":337653558423616,"gmtCreate":1723443570423,"gmtModify":1723443571745,"author":{"id":"3539141933667343","authorId":"3539141933667343","name":"在18楼看风景","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c447c98b6b66b23b25324bc8f957da89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3539141933667343","authorIdStr":"3539141933667343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"哈哈","listText":"哈哈","text":"哈哈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337653558423616","repostId":"337081355624864","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":337081355624864,"gmtCreate":1723334713580,"gmtModify":1723444627836,"author":{"id":"3484536045691836","authorId":"3484536045691836","name":"科迪勒拉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/856f04bd0b055f6769e058b1751b7600","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3484536045691836","authorIdStr":"3484536045691836"},"themes":[],"title":"周末慢聊：SAVA将何去何从？我从这笔投资赚了多少？得到了哪些教训?","htmlText":"错失的每一个机会都是锻炼和学习的机遇，你要做的不是沉沦于自我怜悯之中，而是要以建设性的方式利用这些糟糕的打击。——芒格 虎友们好，尤其是受我影响而买进SAVA股票的朋友们，请务必看下这篇问答文字，以做好准备迎接来自司法及关键试验数据的考验。 一 科兄，好久没有讲SAVA的事情了，是否仍持有其仓位。 的确如此，好久没写它了，今天就多讲讲。 我在去年以近29美元的价格出掉了所有5美元成本的持股，因当时感觉到大环境对初创生物公司极不友好，更重要的是为了回避CMS数据的潜在风险，并同步买了10万美元的短期看涨期权以防踏空，可想而知这笔call很快跌没了。 目前仍持有全部40多美元高价位进的几千股，前些日子，又在坏消息出来的当天以13美元价格买进了1700股。我在评论区里将这些操作及时告知了一些关注者。 本以为SAVA不会再不碰上风浪，将平静地进入年底的关键三期数据读出。真没想到，过了这么多年，美国司法部终于对王博士提出了起诉，导致股价又来一次剧烈颠簸。想起几年来发生在SAVA这一幕幕事件，真的是百感交集。 二 公司前科学顾问王博士是否真的违法操纵了数据？ 先进一个数据，所有被美国司法部调查的类似案例，有97%的被指控者以认罪结案，余下3%中的70%经过诉讼被判无罪。 此数据告诉我们王博士违法是大概率事件。最新透漏的的内部调查发现，前员工与他的邮件中的信息可能用来让他对一些研究参与者提前解盲。此外，刚发布的季报透露SEC也在进行调查。这无疑会软化我此前对他及公司的支持立场。 但是在判决结果出来之前，我仍然相信他没有违法。据说他已经准备应诉。简单重复一下以前说过的理由： 1 俩家专业学术杂志分别发表声明，没有发现它们所刊登的王博士论文中相关蛋白印迹图片的造假证据。 2 某资深电脑工程师将相关图片放大观察比较，没有发现任何异常。 再补充几点新的： 1 纽约城市大学对王博士的调查历时数年，","listText":"错失的每一个机会都是锻炼和学习的机遇，你要做的不是沉沦于自我怜悯之中，而是要以建设性的方式利用这些糟糕的打击。——芒格 虎友们好，尤其是受我影响而买进SAVA股票的朋友们，请务必看下这篇问答文字，以做好准备迎接来自司法及关键试验数据的考验。 一 科兄，好久没有讲SAVA的事情了，是否仍持有其仓位。 的确如此，好久没写它了，今天就多讲讲。 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本以为SAVA不会再不碰上风浪，将平静地进入年底的关键三期数据读出。真没想到，过了这么多年，美国司法部终于对王博士提出了起诉，导致股价又来一次剧烈颠簸。想起几年来发生在SAVA这一幕幕事件，真的是百感交集。 二 公司前科学顾问王博士是否真的违法操纵了数据？ 先进一个数据，所有被美国司法部调查的类似案例，有97%的被指控者以认罪结案，余下3%中的70%经过诉讼被判无罪。 此数据告诉我们王博士违法是大概率事件。最新透漏的的内部调查发现，前员工与他的邮件中的信息可能用来让他对一些研究参与者提前解盲。此外，刚发布的季报透露SEC也在进行调查。这无疑会软化我此前对他及公司的支持立场。 但是在判决结果出来之前，我仍然相信他没有违法。据说他已经准备应诉。简单重复一下以前说过的理由： 1 俩家专业学术杂志分别发表声明，没有发现它们所刊登的王博士论文中相关蛋白印迹图片的造假证据。 2 某资深电脑工程师将相关图片放大观察比较，没有发现任何异常。 再补充几点新的： 1 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15:06","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"超薄！iPhone 17 Slim前瞻：工业设计脱胎换骨","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154178727","media":"PConline","summary":"这一新型号的屏幕尺寸为6.55英寸。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>今年的iPhone 16系列即将进入量产阶段，而苹果公司对iPhone 17系列的规划也已开始。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">据知名爆料者古尔曼透露，苹果正致力于为2025年的iPhone 17系列开发一款超薄手机，其设计灵感来源于今年的iPad Pro，机身将比普通款更为纤薄。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83aef4962880ea8195e03095a25643bd\" tg-width=\"550\" tg-height=\"326\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">这款新机将被命名为iPhone 17 Slim，取代现有的Plus版本，除了设计上的改进，报告还披露了一个令人意外的消息，这一新型号的屏幕尺寸为6.55英寸，该尺寸填补了标准版与Pro Max版之间的空白，使得iPhone 17系列的产品线更加丰富。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">iPhone 17 Slim在其他方面将与标准版iPhone 17保持一致，包括灵动岛屏幕和后置双摄配置。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">核心配置方面，该机将搭载A19芯片，与标准版相同，其它方面，iPhone 17系列将在前置摄像头方面进行大幅度升级，全面配备2400万像素高分辨率摄像头。</p><p style=\"text-align: start;\">此外，古尔曼还透露，苹果正在开发更薄的MacBook Pro和iPad Pro版本，逐步将其超薄设计理念扩展至全线产品。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8616c45248d2408f72ebe467962634a2\" tg-width=\"600\" tg-height=\"375\"/></p></body></html>","source":"lsy1685445853964","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>超薄！iPhone 17 Slim前瞻：工业设计脱胎换骨</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://mobile.pconline.com.cn/1756/17561269.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/73b7dc8129119621b25cfe1399934149","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://mobile.pconline.com.cn/1756/17561269.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154178727","content_text":"今年的iPhone 16系列即将进入量产阶段，而苹果公司对iPhone 17系列的规划也已开始。据知名爆料者古尔曼透露，苹果正致力于为2025年的iPhone 17系列开发一款超薄手机，其设计灵感来源于今年的iPad Pro，机身将比普通款更为纤薄。这款新机将被命名为iPhone 17 Slim，取代现有的Plus版本，除了设计上的改进，报告还披露了一个令人意外的消息，这一新型号的屏幕尺寸为6.55英寸，该尺寸填补了标准版与Pro Max版之间的空白，使得iPhone 17系列的产品线更加丰富。iPhone 17 Slim在其他方面将与标准版iPhone 17保持一致，包括灵动岛屏幕和后置双摄配置。核心配置方面，该机将搭载A19芯片，与标准版相同，其它方面，iPhone 17系列将在前置摄像头方面进行大幅度升级，全面配备2400万像素高分辨率摄像头。此外，古尔曼还透露，苹果正在开发更薄的MacBook Pro和iPad 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13:10","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"港股药明系午后跳水，药明康德跌超5%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1109327551","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"6月18日，港股药明系午后跳水，$药明康德(02359)$跌超5%，$药明生物(02269)$跌超4%，$药明合联(02268)$跌超2%","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>6月18日，港股药明系午后跳水，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02359\">药明康德</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02268\">药明合联</a>跌超2%。午间消息：美国《生物安全法案》风波下，中国CXO企业药明生物美国伍斯特基地暂停建设消息引发市场猜测。对于美国伍斯特基地进展情况，药明生物方面回复记者称，这是公司内部的正常调整，只是暂停。药明生物方面并没有回应是否跟美国《生物安全法案》草案风波有关，只是称：“所有基地在建设过程中，都会有设计调整，这是正常运营。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee7545351caddf2f1f54f537dafe2bb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d44a0e66dd0b4324662c3e3931851b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n港股药明系午后跳水，药明康德跌超5%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-06-18 13:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>6月18日，港股药明系午后跳水，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02359\">药明康德</a>跌超5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02269\">药明生物</a>跌超4%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02268\">药明合联</a>跌超2%。午间消息：美国《生物安全法案》风波下，中国CXO企业药明生物美国伍斯特基地暂停建设消息引发市场猜测。对于美国伍斯特基地进展情况，药明生物方面回复记者称，这是公司内部的正常调整，只是暂停。药明生物方面并没有回应是否跟美国《生物安全法案》草案风波有关，只是称：“所有基地在建设过程中，都会有设计调整，这是正常运营。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ee7545351caddf2f1f54f537dafe2bb\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0d44a0e66dd0b4324662c3e3931851b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5dcff139a84b594ab7e334ebf57c451f\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7da52addfd52fb216bcf87283f43750","relate_stocks":{"603259":"药明康德","LU0052750758.USD":"富兰克林中国基金A Acc","LU0320764599.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton China A Acc SGD","BK1141":"生命科学工具和服务","BK1576":"医药外包概念","LU1046422090.SGD":"Fidelity Pacific A-SGD","02359":"药明康德","LU1997245094.SGD":"安联神州A股基金AT Acc SGD","LU0708995583.HKD":"TEMPLETON CHINA \"A\" (HKD) ACC","07226":"XL二南方恒科","BK1583":"高瓴概念","LU1997245177.USD":"安联神洲A股基金","YANG":"三倍做空富时中国ETF-Direxion","LU2045819591.USD":"Natixis WCM Global Emerging Markets Equity R/A USD","LU2242644610.SGD":"Fidelity China Innovation 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SGD"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1109327551","content_text":"6月18日，港股药明系午后跳水，药明康德跌超5%，药明生物跌超4%，药明合联跌超2%。午间消息：美国《生物安全法案》风波下，中国CXO企业药明生物美国伍斯特基地暂停建设消息引发市场猜测。对于美国伍斯特基地进展情况，药明生物方面回复记者称，这是公司内部的正常调整，只是暂停。药明生物方面并没有回应是否跟美国《生物安全法案》草案风波有关，只是称：“所有基地在建设过程中，都会有设计调整，这是正常运营。”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":298243546173736,"gmtCreate":1713842239974,"gmtModify":1713842579287,"author":{"id":"3539141933667343","authorId":"3539141933667343","name":"在18楼看风景","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c447c98b6b66b23b25324bc8f957da89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539141933667343","idStr":"3539141933667343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"发布悬赏 看看花落谁家","listText":"发布悬赏 看看花落谁家","text":"发布悬赏 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「睡后收入」的投资思维。</p><p><b>【课程大纲】</b></p><p><b>第一章：基础入门</b></p><ul><li>第一课：为什么要学习股票投资</li><li>第二课：美股市场初印象</li></ul><p><b>第二章：美股实操</b></p><ul><li>第三课：美股交易必须掌握的五个基础知识</li><li>第四课：如何选择你的美股交易账户</li><li>第五课：美股交易的两个方向：做多和做空</li><li>第六课：美股常见的五种订单</li><li>第七课：如何在Tiger&nbsp;Trade&nbsp;app上交易股票</li></ul><p><b>第三章：进阶策略</b></p><ul><li>第八课：一定要了解的股票投资策略</li><li>第九课：如何选择优质的上市公司</li><li>第十课：让投资更高效的技术指标</li></ul><p><b>第四章：投资风险</b></p><ul><li>第十一课：投资美股一定要避开的风险</li><li>第十二课：上市公司可能出现的四种意外</li></ul><p><b>【声明】</b></p><p>本素材仅供交流、学习、参考之用，本素材不包含以下内容：（1）购买任何金融产品或服务的要约；（2）对任何金融产品采取任何行为的建议；或（3）任何投资意见。不论本素材中所含信息如何，均应由您自主做出投资决策并独立承担投资风险。老虎力求素材所涉信息准确可靠，但不对其真实性、准确性、完整性和及时性等做出保证，亦不对因使用素材所涉信息所引发的损失承担任何责任。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。本素材知识产权归老虎所有，未经许可不可被复制或二次分发。</p>","url":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe6302a1b080c2764691c19bb7a48688","link":"https://laohu8.com/RN?name=RNCollege&page=%2Fcollege%2Fcourse&rndata=%7B%22gid%22%3A%22C20220930090545683%22%7D","material":{"gid":"20221012024055919","title":"第二课：美股市场初印象","url":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/908fb41b3270835011028972642/ZNgGpDETFjkA.mp4","desc":"","duration":"00:12:11","content_type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a44dcd5193ab27aab2ee56144f4f1a3","source_type":0,"extra":"{}","pv":4965,"thumbnail_two":"","rn_link":"https://laohu8.com/VIDEO/C20220930090545683/20221012024055919"},"cate_info":{},"is_hot":true,"sup_object_id":"C20220930090545683","sup_type":"C20220930090545683"},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1067,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341164259365120,"gmtCreate":1724312605471,"gmtModify":1724312606840,"author":{"id":"3539141933667343","authorId":"3539141933667343","name":"在18楼看风景","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c447c98b6b66b23b25324bc8f957da89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539141933667343","idStr":"3539141933667343"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341164259365120","repostId":"335528628216232","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":335528628216232,"gmtCreate":1722952534297,"gmtModify":1723035603463,"author":{"id":"3546925022414459","authorId":"3546925022414459","name":"FrankAllin","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c78dc014137382fcbd12cf93bd44ab6d","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546925022414459","idStr":"3546925022414459"},"themes":[],"title":"记史诗级波动的一天","htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VIX\">$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$</a> 狂飙150%到65的位置，为2020年疫情以来的最高。这一**跌的特点就是：突然，速度快且跌幅大，波动剧烈。总结下市场上的观点看来，有几大原因：1. 日元升值，导致原先已高度拥挤的日元套息交易进入到反向螺旋崩溃状态；2. 上周五非农数据大幅低于预期引发衰退担忧；3. 巴菲特对苹果的大额减持；4. 近期科技股财报大多不及预期；5. 对热战扩大化的担忧。个人观点，科技股尤其是半导体和ai相关板块的泡沫化是根本原因，而其后的推手，跟日元套系交易关系很大。日元加息扭转预期后，导致资金抽离，造成科技股剧烈波动，也符合杠杆市的特点。非农数据和巴菲特减持，不过是在本就摇摇欲坠的市场上踢上一脚。周一盘后，在恐慌情绪释放了一波同时，市场迎来了一波修复，vix也从65降到40左右的位置。市场见底了没有？这一波科技牛，很大程度是由杠杆推升的，随即的剧烈波动和大幅调整，也是杠杆带来的。大跌后，短期会有修复，但修复后怎么走还有待观察。在预期扭转之后，杠杆带来的正反馈有没有到头，目前还看不出来，后续仍然有大量科技股的财报，存在非常多的不确定性。在实际波动率没有收敛下来之前，我们很难说是否见底。近期市场大概率还是会处在高波动率的环境。&nbsp;个人操作反思尽管在上上周实盘面对面聊降息的时候","text":"@小虎交易笔记 《实盘面对面》约稿从七月中旬以来，短短半个月时间，美股投资者就从天堂跌入地狱。极度恐慌的一天纳斯达克从高点回撤幅度超过15%，近三个交易日跌速明显加大。8月5日当天，开盘前的恐慌情绪达到了高潮，纳斯达克期指盘前最大跌幅达到了近8%，接近熔断位置。与此同时， $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ 狂飙150%到65的位置，为2020年疫情以来的最高。这一**跌的特点就是：突然，速度快且跌幅大，波动剧烈。总结下市场上的观点看来，有几大原因：1. 日元升值，导致原先已高度拥挤的日元套息交易进入到反向螺旋崩溃状态；2. 上周五非农数据大幅低于预期引发衰退担忧；3. 巴菲特对苹果的大额减持；4. 近期科技股财报大多不及预期；5. 对热战扩大化的担忧。个人观点，科技股尤其是半导体和ai相关板块的泡沫化是根本原因，而其后的推手，跟日元套系交易关系很大。日元加息扭转预期后，导致资金抽离，造成科技股剧烈波动，也符合杠杆市的特点。非农数据和巴菲特减持，不过是在本就摇摇欲坠的市场上踢上一脚。周一盘后，在恐慌情绪释放了一波同时，市场迎来了一波修复，vix也从65降到40左右的位置。市场见底了没有？这一波科技牛，很大程度是由杠杆推升的，随即的剧烈波动和大幅调整，也是杠杆带来的。大跌后，短期会有修复，但修复后怎么走还有待观察。在预期扭转之后，杠杆带来的正反馈有没有到头，目前还看不出来，后续仍然有大量科技股的财报，存在非常多的不确定性。在实际波动率没有收敛下来之前，我们很难说是否见底。近期市场大概率还是会处在高波动率的环境。 个人操作反思尽管在上上周实盘面对面聊降息的时候","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335528628216232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":1,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":625137661,"gmtCreate":1676280458153,"gmtModify":1676280461520,"author":{"id":"3539141933667343","authorId":"3539141933667343","name":"在18楼看风景","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c447c98b6b66b23b25324bc8f957da89","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3539141933667343","idStr":"3539141933667343"},"themes":[],"title":"坚持努力就是最好的自己","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600010\">$包钢股份(600010)$&nbsp;</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AHG\">$Akso Health Group(AHG)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435222841298008\">@花花</a>&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp; @","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600010\">$包钢股份(600010)$&nbsp;</a><a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AHG\">$Akso Health Group(AHG)$</a>&nbsp;<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3435222841298008\">@花花</a>&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp;[惊讶]&nbsp; @","text":"$包钢股份(600010)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $Akso Health Group(AHG)$ @花花 [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] [惊讶] 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