layne_赵_7991的个人主页 - 老虎社区

layne_赵_7991

layne_赵_7991

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IP属地：上海

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2022-03-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$加油💪

2022-03-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$我等到股价重回30，一点点来吧

2022-03-11

$老虎证券(TIGR)$三十美金抢着买的那帮人呢，现在才三元都不买么？

2021-10-14

$老虎证券(TIGR)$今天交易两个小时，换手率已经超过50%呢，也就是说，不管大小股东，统统一半的股票换手了，新买入的那一半股东还会卖么！

2021-08-21

空头吓唬人呗，卖空期权在手上，这个月的期权今天最后一天结算，希望把股价打下去，所以一下子挂多点，又怕被人全吃了，到时候股价蹭蹭上涨，自己却没有筹码呢。

@失败的人生:$老虎证券(TIGR)$70K的卖单，挂了又撤，撤了又卖，是什么意思

2021-08-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$12.5美金……这个价位的期权应该不会亏钱💰吧

2021-08-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$一天的换手率已经达到了惊人的15%呢，是平时换手率的两三倍，这是底部的信号，该走的差不多也出局，大量筹码底部建仓…坐等局势反转。

2021-08-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$大家有点耐心，这是空头要杀8-20到期的期权，反转也许就在一两天，短线不要进入，长线的投资价值已经很高了，等月底半年报粗来估计要涨一波。届时空头随时会转变为多头。

2021-08-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎证券是今天发布半年报么？[害羞] [害羞] [害羞] [害羞] [微笑] [微笑] [微笑]

2021-08-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎证券2021年半年报什么时候发布啊………

2021-08-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎证券半年报什么时候发布啊，大家猜下业绩增加还是减少

2021-07-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$大股东抢购的增发价24.5。现在已经跌倒18了，空方已经杀红了眼，筹码出尽，继续杀也杀不动了吧。昨晚反手做多期权。一共做了三笔，每笔扣除手续费净赚500美金出头，一共盈利1500美金多。希望空方再接再厉，有本事再砸下来，我还是同样的期权等着低吸高抛。

2021-06-19

$老虎证券(TIGR)$我有13手老虎期权，6.18到期，请问在哪里点击行权呢？谁指点下，谢谢了

2021-06-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$申购了2000股，能中多少呢[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [愤怒] [微笑] [微笑] [开心] [开心]

2021-06-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$增发股份是利好，每一个潜力很大的公司都会被资本市场高估，这时候增发就可以用更低的成本获取更多的资金用于发展。现在市净率是16倍，就是一元的资产卖16元，这样的高估值必须回报给股东更快速的发展，所以就大概用15/16的折价增发一部分股份，那么原股东的每股净资产变成2元，公司也获得了更多资金发展，同时2元的净资产也进一步夯实目前的股价更难跌回一元。

2021-06-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$怎么增发看不到入口

2021-04-07

价值投资就是细水长流

2021-04-07

不错

流动性大放水港股还会痛多久？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>大股东抢购的增发价24.5。现在已经跌倒18了，空方已经杀红了眼，筹码出尽，继续杀也杀不动了吧。昨晚反手做多期权。一共做了三笔，每笔扣除手续费净赚500美金出头，一共盈利1500美金多。希望空方再接再厉，有本事再砸下来，我还是同样的期权等着低吸高抛。","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>申购了2000股，能中多少呢[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[愤怒]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>申购了2000股，能中多少呢[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[呆住]&nbsp;[愤怒]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$申购了2000股，能中多少呢[呆住] [呆住] [呆住] [愤怒] [微笑] [微笑] [开心] [开心]","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03af54118f49c2288ddbc83a571a1fcc","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180459479","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2149,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117288432,"gmtCreate":1623143630626,"gmtModify":1623144131735,"author":{"id":"3536610804821943","authorId":"3536610804821943","name":"layne_赵_7991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e06861a5f2dc3021fee5be3c611d0f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>增发股份是利好，每一个潜力很大的公司都会被资本市场高估，这时候增发就可以用更低的成本获取更多的资金用于发展。现在市净率是16倍，就是一元的资产卖16元，这样的高估值必须回报给股东更快速的发展，所以就大概用15/16的折价增发一部分股份，那么原股东的每股净资产变成2元，公司也获得了更多资金发展，同时2元的净资产也进一步夯实目前的股价更难跌回一元。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>增发股份是利好，每一个潜力很大的公司都会被资本市场高估，这时候增发就可以用更低的成本获取更多的资金用于发展。现在市净率是16倍，就是一元的资产卖16元，这样的高估值必须回报给股东更快速的发展，所以就大概用15/16的折价增发一部分股份，那么原股东的每股净资产变成2元，公司也获得了更多资金发展，同时2元的净资产也进一步夯实目前的股价更难跌回一元。","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$增发股份是利好，每一个潜力很大的公司都会被资本市场高估，这时候增发就可以用更低的成本获取更多的资金用于发展。现在市净率是16倍，就是一元的资产卖16元，这样的高估值必须回报给股东更快速的发展，所以就大概用15/16的折价增发一部分股份，那么原股东的每股净资产变成2元，公司也获得了更多资金发展，同时2元的净资产也进一步夯实目前的股价更难跌回一元。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117288432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2510,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":117668925,"gmtCreate":1623138802167,"gmtModify":1623138802167,"author":{"id":"3536610804821943","authorId":"3536610804821943","name":"layne_赵_7991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e06861a5f2dc3021fee5be3c611d0f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>怎么增发看不到入口","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>怎么增发看不到入口","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$怎么增发看不到入口","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117668925","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341179417,"gmtCreate":1617798533839,"gmtModify":1617798533839,"author":{"id":"3536610804821943","authorId":"3536610804821943","name":"layne_赵_7991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e06861a5f2dc3021fee5be3c611d0f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"价值投资就是细水长流","listText":"价值投资就是细水长流","text":"价值投资就是细水长流","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/952579d8afd738ddd4da7966bcf7f68d","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341179417","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":530,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":341905648,"gmtCreate":1617767588984,"gmtModify":1617767588984,"author":{"id":"3536610804821943","authorId":"3536610804821943","name":"layne_赵_7991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e06861a5f2dc3021fee5be3c611d0f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不错","listText":"不错","text":"不错","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341905648","repostId":"2125956667","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2125956667","pubTimestamp":1617694920,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2125956667?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-06 15:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"流动性大放水 港股还会痛多久？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2125956667","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　美债收益率大幅波动、通胀预期不断飙升，港股也难免受到波及，华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘在做客新浪理财大学《网罗中环》时称，今年经济复苏已经开始发生，全球市场估值体系也开始进行调整，对于港股也造成一定程度的冲击，不过伴随着调整和震荡，可能会在今年第二季以后提供很好的入市机会。","content":"<p>文|罗琦 发自香港</p><p>美债收益率大幅波动、通胀预期不断飙升，港股也难免受到波及，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601688\">华泰证券</a>首席宏观经济学家易峘在做客<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>理财大学《网罗中环》时称，今年经济复苏已经开始发生，全球市场估值体系也开始进行调整，对于港股也造成一定程度的冲击，不过伴随着调整和震荡，可能会在今年第二季以后提供很好的入市机会。</p><p>易峘称，在经济景气度回升的时候，A股是最早有反应的，但第二阶段就会到港股，而且港股一直拥有折让优势，又同时拥有很多新经济公司和A股稀缺的公司，所以在海外市场对港股波动影响以后，将会出现一些投资机遇。</p><p>去年美债利率处在低位，易峘认为，这不是一个常态的事情，所以利率回归正常水平是必然，市场也不必过分担忧，而美国即将推出1.84万亿纾困计划，将对市场的流动性造成冲击，进一步影响美元走势，短期会对美元造成升值压力，这也会影响新兴市场的表现。</p><p>易峘称，香港市场基本面并没有发生很大的改变，所以不会像土耳其一样的新兴市场出现巨幅震荡，但由于仍会受海外市场的影响，短期内还是会持续震荡。</p><p><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/transform/205/w362h643/20210406/5890-knipfse8090901.png\" tg-width=\"362\" tg-height=\"643\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>以下为采访实录：</p><p>罗琦：最近美债收益率以及通胀预期，对整体港股市场的影响很大，您觉得普通投资者该如何去解读这方面的政策变化的呢？</p><p>易峘：去年经济比较差的时候，市场表现比较好，因为大家一方面享受比较低的利率，一方面市场有前瞻性，会看到疫情肯定会恢复正常的，而今年经济真的在变好，尤其是美国最近的数据也都表现比较好，包括通胀真的开始回升，当市场对此有预期的时候，在利率上升的过程中，估值体系会有一个正常化的压力。</p><p>我的解读是，这就是一个正常化的过程，也就是说疫情期间的一些超宽松政策不会一直延续，现在可能会回归到疫情前的水平，那么估值体系也会有所调整，去年大家都在超宽的流动性下对估值体系有一些更为宽容的调整，今年可能会打回原形。</p><p>罗琦：那么您认为，什么样的估值体系是到达了正常化的水平呢？</p><p>易峘：其实我个人是一个宏观经济学家，但有时候也会关心一些估值模型的变化，像去年的确市场上出现了非常好的涨幅，尤其是一些确定性比较强的抱团板块和高成长板块，那么当中估值体系我觉得比较有代表性的变化可能有两个，一是贴现率在大幅下降，DCF模型也好，贴现率都在大幅调低，另一方面风险溢价都被压低了，那么在今年疫情恢复的情况下，这两个都要有所回归。</p><p>有一些长期比较好的赛道和长期成长比较确定的板块，短期没有现金流的情况下，可能很多DCF已经做到了5年后10年后，那就会进行调整。意思是说，当资金成本低的时候，大家都是时间的朋友，当资金成本高的时候，大家的耐心就会差一点，对成长的要求就会提高，因为另一边的机会成本上升了。</p><p>罗琦：刚刚我们说到通胀预期也在走高，那未来资金成本会有什么不一样的变化？</p><p>易峘：不仅仅是通胀预期，还有增长预期，简单来说，今年标普500市场的一致预期是盈利增长40%，去年就是双位数下降了百分之十几，但是这样一比的话，2021年的盈利还是高于2019年、2020年和2021年本来没有预期情况下的趋势增长的盈利。</p><p>在这种情况下，利率肯定会水涨船高，因为企业的现金流在好转，贷款需求也回升了，银行的贷款定价也会上升，它对无风险资产的定价要求也会更高，因为有风险资产利率的承受能力上升，资产质量好转，那么无风险资产在同样的价格下，配置就会下降，今年美国有这么大规模的刺激，又有比较大的国债供给压力，自然需要价格调整，也就是利率上升，票面价格下降才能吸引更多的配置。</p><p>罗琦：那这种情况下是不是对于银行或是对利率比较敏感的行业会好一些？</p><p>易峘：如果是长周期的话，的确会相对好一些，当然香港市场还有很多新兴市场的特点，比如说对资金的流动方向是非常敏感的，当美元走强的时候，新兴市场整体风险偏好下降的时候，香港市场都会受到影响。这两年，如果从相对配置来看，以美债利率为代表的利率走势，2017年初以后就在下降通道，所以今年是四年以来下降趋势的一个逆转，从配置权重上来说，利率敏感的板块也不是利率上升会受益的板块，自然它的相对配置吸引力会上升。</p><p>罗琦：那么这个周期会持续很长时间吗？</p><p>易峘：去年美债利率最低的时候跌到过0的水平，甚至油价都出现负油价，那么肯定是一个不寻常的短暂现象，今年的利率回升不会一直以现在的斜率往上走再往下跌，但总体来看，还是会回归正常的过程，意思是说像去年那样的利率情况不会容易呈现。</p><p>但这个正常化过程不是一个脉冲式上升，今年利率总体会比去年高，从基本面方向分析的话，得看企业盈利情况，包括PPI是企业盈利的同步指标、企业资本开支周期、全球贸易周期都是在今年回升，所以像去年年底的时候，我们就预计4年利率下行的惯性会打破，这个从现在看来，应该至少持续一年以上的时间。</p><p>罗琦：那今年有哪些经济事件可能会影响到整个市场？</p><p>易峘：我们团队比较擅长基本面的分析，今年最大波动来源还是海外经济波动，美国今年第二季有几个重启的关键时点，第一是疫苗推进的速度，什么时候能达到基本的群体免疫的水平，现在拜登说接下来100天要接种2亿针，现在美国的疫苗覆盖率已经达到40%左右，所以5月初可能就达到70%的人群节奏，那么经济重启和疫情变化绝对是同步发生的。</p><p>第二是美国1.84万亿的最新推出的第五轮刺激计划，今年从节奏上看，3月12日开始发放，3月份就会发放3000多亿，然后今年上半年也就是3月12号到6月底之间，会发放到一半左右，那么发放的节奏和效果将会是影响美国环比增速的很大变量。1.84万亿接近9个点的GDP财政刺激，那么4个月不到要发掉4个点，当大部分是转移支付，尤其是低收入家庭的转移支付，我们之前观察到在支票发放的月零售就特别强。</p><p>所以说美国财政刺激节奏很重要，如果再叠加重启可能第二季增长会比较快，需求也会快速上升，通胀是需求的滞后指标，也就是说短期通胀预期虽然会有波动，但很难证明这是海外经济基本面的关键时点。</p><p>另外，我们也可以关注到利率上升以后，也会关注包括中国房地产相关的金融条件收紧，以及海外的30年国债利率上升以后，对房地产周期的影响，这可能是今年下半年甚至是接近年底的时候需要观察的一些基本面的相关事件。实际上利率不仅仅是上升了，而是翻倍了，那么现金流的压力会非常明显。</p><p>罗琦：您刚刚提到了1.84万亿的纾困计划，这对于港股市场的流动性有什么影响呢？</p><p>易峘：一方面是提振增长，另一方面短期会对利率产生上行压力，因为从经济基本面来说，1.84万亿的刺激计划是今年接下来的3个月就能发掉9000亿，那么从这点上来看，其实会很快地导致美国的所谓“灭火”，就是我们回到正常没有发生疫情的情况下的趋势增长上。</p><p>但是从国债供需来说，今年国债的供给会比原来预期更大，美联储今年给出的每个月1000多亿的资产购买计划的时候，可能还没有这么实在的一个财政刺激方案出来，那么就有现在美元供需之间的尴尬。</p><p>所以对流动性，尤其是美元来说，短期是有一些走强的压力的，流动性边际稍微紧一些，那么美元会阶段性走强一些，但我们觉得这是一个长期的压力，对于新兴市场来说，美元走强的时候，往往可能新兴市场会有一定程度的流出的压力。</p><p>尤其是那些本身财政和经济基本面比较脆弱的新兴市场，通胀很高、财政很脆弱的，比如说最近土耳其，大家都注意到它已经出现了美债利率上升的边际蝴蝶效应。香港从基本面上来说，没有这些问题，但短期还是会有一些连带效应，但长期来看也是给大家配置的一个机会。</p><p>罗琦：您怎么看现在很多基金到港股市场来占领价值洼地的？</p><p>易峘：从基本面来看，经济复苏的时候一般都是对港股好，我之前在年初的时候说过，可能今年会有哪些东西值得关注？我觉得一个是利率，一个是所谓的全球的制造业产能周期。</p><p>一般来说，港股在中国整体经济景气度上升的时候，港股溢价会变小，历史上都是这样，在2017年、2018年也是出现了一波大家对港股配置的情况。</p><p>经济景气度低位回升了，最早反应的是A股，在第二阶段就会到港股，历史上港股对A股的折价、溢价都是跟PPI有关的，所以今年有一些基本面的原因，会让大家更多地看到港股和风险偏好有关。</p><p>从现在来看，利率上升，从港股的配置来说，这一波的估值体系调整、流动性变化对港股的影响调整结束以后，港股还是有折价优势的，港股中在通胀周期中有实实在在的盈利影响的公司，估值还是偏低的，这些可能会在港股显出它的价值。</p><p>罗琦：那今年下半年港股市场您怎么看呢？</p><p>易峘：我觉得香港这个市场其实从流动性来说或者是整个指数的调整来说，会越来越利好，对新经济的代表性也会越来越强，但是旧经济有一个优势，一是它有折价，还有一些稀缺的东西，包括电信相关的，A股没有的公司，另一块是香港本地的公司，因为香港从2019年之后，不论是短期的扰动还是疫情的关系，已经把基数磨到很低了。</p><p>重启只是时间问题，重启的时候行情也挺大的，因为供给面已经收缩了，所以当需求回来的时候，还是会一些增长的机会，尤其是香港是有特殊低位的，又拥有人民币国际化前哨的优势，我觉得这些都值得大家关注，尤其第二季是通胀预期上升得比较快的时候，那么在大调整之后还会有一段时间震荡，这些都是非常值得关注的。</p><p></p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n流动性大放水 港股还会痛多久？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-06 15:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/2021-04-06/doc-ikmxzfmk5104542.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>文|罗琦 发自香港美债收益率大幅波动、通胀预期不断飙升，港股也难免受到波及，华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘在做客新浪理财大学《网罗中环》时称，今年经济复苏已经开始发生，全球市场估值体系也开始进行调整，对于港股也造成一定程度的冲击，不过伴随着调整和震荡，可能会在今年第二季以后提供很好的入市机会。易峘称，在经济景气度回升的时候，A股是最早有反应的，但第二阶段就会到港股，而且港股一直拥有折让优势，又同时...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/2021-04-06/doc-ikmxzfmk5104542.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/017a2d51f9605f643f552ed0e3997176","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/2021-04-06/doc-ikmxzfmk5104542.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2125956667","content_text":"文|罗琦 发自香港美债收益率大幅波动、通胀预期不断飙升，港股也难免受到波及，华泰证券首席宏观经济学家易峘在做客新浪理财大学《网罗中环》时称，今年经济复苏已经开始发生，全球市场估值体系也开始进行调整，对于港股也造成一定程度的冲击，不过伴随着调整和震荡，可能会在今年第二季以后提供很好的入市机会。易峘称，在经济景气度回升的时候，A股是最早有反应的，但第二阶段就会到港股，而且港股一直拥有折让优势，又同时拥有很多新经济公司和A股稀缺的公司，所以在海外市场对港股波动影响以后，将会出现一些投资机遇。去年美债利率处在低位，易峘认为，这不是一个常态的事情，所以利率回归正常水平是必然，市场也不必过分担忧，而美国即将推出1.84万亿纾困计划，将对市场的流动性造成冲击，进一步影响美元走势，短期会对美元造成升值压力，这也会影响新兴市场的表现。易峘称，香港市场基本面并没有发生很大的改变，所以不会像土耳其一样的新兴市场出现巨幅震荡，但由于仍会受海外市场的影响，短期内还是会持续震荡。以下为采访实录：罗琦：最近美债收益率以及通胀预期，对整体港股市场的影响很大，您觉得普通投资者该如何去解读这方面的政策变化的呢？易峘：去年经济比较差的时候，市场表现比较好，因为大家一方面享受比较低的利率，一方面市场有前瞻性，会看到疫情肯定会恢复正常的，而今年经济真的在变好，尤其是美国最近的数据也都表现比较好，包括通胀真的开始回升，当市场对此有预期的时候，在利率上升的过程中，估值体系会有一个正常化的压力。我的解读是，这就是一个正常化的过程，也就是说疫情期间的一些超宽松政策不会一直延续，现在可能会回归到疫情前的水平，那么估值体系也会有所调整，去年大家都在超宽的流动性下对估值体系有一些更为宽容的调整，今年可能会打回原形。罗琦：那么您认为，什么样的估值体系是到达了正常化的水平呢？易峘：其实我个人是一个宏观经济学家，但有时候也会关心一些估值模型的变化，像去年的确市场上出现了非常好的涨幅，尤其是一些确定性比较强的抱团板块和高成长板块，那么当中估值体系我觉得比较有代表性的变化可能有两个，一是贴现率在大幅下降，DCF模型也好，贴现率都在大幅调低，另一方面风险溢价都被压低了，那么在今年疫情恢复的情况下，这两个都要有所回归。有一些长期比较好的赛道和长期成长比较确定的板块，短期没有现金流的情况下，可能很多DCF已经做到了5年后10年后，那就会进行调整。意思是说，当资金成本低的时候，大家都是时间的朋友，当资金成本高的时候，大家的耐心就会差一点，对成长的要求就会提高，因为另一边的机会成本上升了。罗琦：刚刚我们说到通胀预期也在走高，那未来资金成本会有什么不一样的变化？易峘：不仅仅是通胀预期，还有增长预期，简单来说，今年标普500市场的一致预期是盈利增长40%，去年就是双位数下降了百分之十几，但是这样一比的话，2021年的盈利还是高于2019年、2020年和2021年本来没有预期情况下的趋势增长的盈利。在这种情况下，利率肯定会水涨船高，因为企业的现金流在好转，贷款需求也回升了，银行的贷款定价也会上升，它对无风险资产的定价要求也会更高，因为有风险资产利率的承受能力上升，资产质量好转，那么无风险资产在同样的价格下，配置就会下降，今年美国有这么大规模的刺激，又有比较大的国债供给压力，自然需要价格调整，也就是利率上升，票面价格下降才能吸引更多的配置。罗琦：那这种情况下是不是对于银行或是对利率比较敏感的行业会好一些？易峘：如果是长周期的话，的确会相对好一些，当然香港市场还有很多新兴市场的特点，比如说对资金的流动方向是非常敏感的，当美元走强的时候，新兴市场整体风险偏好下降的时候，香港市场都会受到影响。这两年，如果从相对配置来看，以美债利率为代表的利率走势，2017年初以后就在下降通道，所以今年是四年以来下降趋势的一个逆转，从配置权重上来说，利率敏感的板块也不是利率上升会受益的板块，自然它的相对配置吸引力会上升。罗琦：那么这个周期会持续很长时间吗？易峘：去年美债利率最低的时候跌到过0的水平，甚至油价都出现负油价，那么肯定是一个不寻常的短暂现象，今年的利率回升不会一直以现在的斜率往上走再往下跌，但总体来看，还是会回归正常的过程，意思是说像去年那样的利率情况不会容易呈现。但这个正常化过程不是一个脉冲式上升，今年利率总体会比去年高，从基本面方向分析的话，得看企业盈利情况，包括PPI是企业盈利的同步指标、企业资本开支周期、全球贸易周期都是在今年回升，所以像去年年底的时候，我们就预计4年利率下行的惯性会打破，这个从现在看来，应该至少持续一年以上的时间。罗琦：那今年有哪些经济事件可能会影响到整个市场？易峘：我们团队比较擅长基本面的分析，今年最大波动来源还是海外经济波动，美国今年第二季有几个重启的关键时点，第一是疫苗推进的速度，什么时候能达到基本的群体免疫的水平，现在拜登说接下来100天要接种2亿针，现在美国的疫苗覆盖率已经达到40%左右，所以5月初可能就达到70%的人群节奏，那么经济重启和疫情变化绝对是同步发生的。第二是美国1.84万亿的最新推出的第五轮刺激计划，今年从节奏上看，3月12日开始发放，3月份就会发放3000多亿，然后今年上半年也就是3月12号到6月底之间，会发放到一半左右，那么发放的节奏和效果将会是影响美国环比增速的很大变量。1.84万亿接近9个点的GDP财政刺激，那么4个月不到要发掉4个点，当大部分是转移支付，尤其是低收入家庭的转移支付，我们之前观察到在支票发放的月零售就特别强。所以说美国财政刺激节奏很重要，如果再叠加重启可能第二季增长会比较快，需求也会快速上升，通胀是需求的滞后指标，也就是说短期通胀预期虽然会有波动，但很难证明这是海外经济基本面的关键时点。另外，我们也可以关注到利率上升以后，也会关注包括中国房地产相关的金融条件收紧，以及海外的30年国债利率上升以后，对房地产周期的影响，这可能是今年下半年甚至是接近年底的时候需要观察的一些基本面的相关事件。实际上利率不仅仅是上升了，而是翻倍了，那么现金流的压力会非常明显。罗琦：您刚刚提到了1.84万亿的纾困计划，这对于港股市场的流动性有什么影响呢？易峘：一方面是提振增长，另一方面短期会对利率产生上行压力，因为从经济基本面来说，1.84万亿的刺激计划是今年接下来的3个月就能发掉9000亿，那么从这点上来看，其实会很快地导致美国的所谓“灭火”，就是我们回到正常没有发生疫情的情况下的趋势增长上。但是从国债供需来说，今年国债的供给会比原来预期更大，美联储今年给出的每个月1000多亿的资产购买计划的时候，可能还没有这么实在的一个财政刺激方案出来，那么就有现在美元供需之间的尴尬。所以对流动性，尤其是美元来说，短期是有一些走强的压力的，流动性边际稍微紧一些，那么美元会阶段性走强一些，但我们觉得这是一个长期的压力，对于新兴市场来说，美元走强的时候，往往可能新兴市场会有一定程度的流出的压力。尤其是那些本身财政和经济基本面比较脆弱的新兴市场，通胀很高、财政很脆弱的，比如说最近土耳其，大家都注意到它已经出现了美债利率上升的边际蝴蝶效应。香港从基本面上来说，没有这些问题，但短期还是会有一些连带效应，但长期来看也是给大家配置的一个机会。罗琦：您怎么看现在很多基金到港股市场来占领价值洼地的？易峘：从基本面来看，经济复苏的时候一般都是对港股好，我之前在年初的时候说过，可能今年会有哪些东西值得关注？我觉得一个是利率，一个是所谓的全球的制造业产能周期。一般来说，港股在中国整体经济景气度上升的时候，港股溢价会变小，历史上都是这样，在2017年、2018年也是出现了一波大家对港股配置的情况。经济景气度低位回升了，最早反应的是A股，在第二阶段就会到港股，历史上港股对A股的折价、溢价都是跟PPI有关的，所以今年有一些基本面的原因，会让大家更多地看到港股和风险偏好有关。从现在来看，利率上升，从港股的配置来说，这一波的估值体系调整、流动性变化对港股的影响调整结束以后，港股还是有折价优势的，港股中在通胀周期中有实实在在的盈利影响的公司，估值还是偏低的，这些可能会在港股显出它的价值。罗琦：那今年下半年港股市场您怎么看呢？易峘：我觉得香港这个市场其实从流动性来说或者是整个指数的调整来说，会越来越利好，对新经济的代表性也会越来越强，但是旧经济有一个优势，一是它有折价，还有一些稀缺的东西，包括电信相关的，A股没有的公司，另一块是香港本地的公司，因为香港从2019年之后，不论是短期的扰动还是疫情的关系，已经把基数磨到很低了。重启只是时间问题，重启的时候行情也挺大的，因为供给面已经收缩了，所以当需求回来的时候，还是会一些增长的机会，尤其是香港是有特殊低位的，又拥有人民币国际化前哨的优势，我觉得这些都值得大家关注，尤其第二季是通胀预期上升得比较快的时候，那么在大调整之后还会有一段时间震荡，这些都是非常值得关注的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":825219642,"gmtCreate":1634226758644,"gmtModify":1634226788608,"author":{"id":"3536610804821943","authorId":"3536610804821943","name":"layne_赵_7991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e06861a5f2dc3021fee5be3c611d0f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>今天交易两个小时，换手率已经超过50%呢，也就是说，不管大小股东，统统一半的股票换手了，新买入的那一半股东还会卖么！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>今天交易两个小时，换手率已经超过50%呢，也就是说，不管大小股东，统统一半的股票换手了，新买入的那一半股东还会卖么！","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$今天交易两个小时，换手率已经超过50%呢，也就是说，不管大小股东，统统一半的股票换手了，新买入的那一半股东还会卖么！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825219642","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575587056961534","authorId":"3575587056961534","name":"LING00","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/faaf1330724f7b0fdd33c5c5c036c2f5","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"应该是有人左手买右手卖砸盘","text":"应该是有人左手买右手卖砸盘","html":"应该是有人左手买右手卖砸盘"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":838502175,"gmtCreate":1629417457397,"gmtModify":1629417457397,"author":{"id":"3536610804821943","authorId":"3536610804821943","name":"layne_赵_7991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e06861a5f2dc3021fee5be3c611d0f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>一天的换手率已经达到了惊人的15%呢，是平时换手率的两三倍，这是底部的信号，该走的差不多也出局，大量筹码底部建仓…坐等局势反转。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>一天的换手率已经达到了惊人的15%呢，是平时换手率的两三倍，这是底部的信号，该走的差不多也出局，大量筹码底部建仓…坐等局势反转。","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$一天的换手率已经达到了惊人的15%呢，是平时换手率的两三倍，这是底部的信号，该走的差不多也出局，大量筹码底部建仓…坐等局势反转。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5608ff5d733f8dbd5bb9f0869a031b93","width":"1080","height":"2340"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/838502175","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180459479,"gmtCreate":1623222153891,"gmtModify":1623222153891,"author":{"id":"3536610804821943","authorId":"3536610804821943","name":"layne_赵_7991","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01e06861a5f2dc3021fee5be3c611d0f","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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