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","text":"$华虹半导体(01347)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/304054614130720","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":250849294032960,"gmtCreate":1702259599848,"gmtModify":1702260062158,"author":{"id":"3535348245787846","authorId":"3535348245787846","name":"福雷亩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/636b7bfc97835f1a847c20b68da0b75a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535348245787846","authorIdStr":"3535348245787846"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/250849294032960","repostId":"2390801445","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2390801445","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1702259405,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2390801445?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-11 09:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"罕见！拜登施压美联储：强劲非农不是加息的理由","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2390801445","media":"金十数据","summary":"美国总统拜登说，上周五公布的非农就业报告显示美国劳动力市场仍有韧性，通胀继续缓解，这是经济的“甜蜜点”，他说这不应该促使美联储进一步加息。这标志着拜登罕见地对美联储的政策制定发表评论。拜登上周五表示，这应被视为“坚实、稳定”的增长。然而，拜登的前任特朗普却多次就美联储的政策抨击美联储主席鲍威尔。特朗普于2017年提名鲍威尔领导美联储，鲍威尔于次年接任。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国总统拜登说，上周五公布的非农就业报告显示美国劳动力市场仍有韧性，通胀继续缓解，这是经济的“甜蜜点”，他说<strong>这不应该促使美联储进一步加息</strong>。<strong>这标志着拜登罕见地对美联储的政策制定发表评论</strong>。</p>\n<p>美国劳动力市场在11月份意外走强，增加了19.9万个就业岗位，工资增长也缓和了美联储将在明年初降息的押注。拜登上周五表示，<strong>这应被视为“坚实、稳定”的增长</strong>。</p>\n<p>他在内华达州拉斯维加斯发表演讲时称<strong>这一数字是“稳定增长和降低通胀所需的‘甜蜜点’，而不是鼓励美联储加息”</strong>。 近几任美国总统都避免对美联储发表例行评论，因为他们担心削弱该央行制定货币政策的传统独立性，并给人留下决策受政治驱动的印象。 然而，拜登的前任特朗普却多次就美联储的政策抨击美联储主席鲍威尔。特朗普于2017年提名鲍威尔领导美联储，鲍威尔于次年接任。</p>\n<p>拜登这番言论发表之际，他正在为竞选连任做准备，而美国经济的好坏将在一定程度上取决于他对美国经济的管理。民意调查显示，选民对美国经济的评价很低。</p>\n<p>《华尔街日报》的一项最新民调显示，<strong>拜登的政治地位正处于其总统任期内最弱的时期</strong>，选民给他的工作表现打出了最低分，同时，特朗普首次获得了更多的青睐。在只有这两位候选人的假设投票中，拜登（43%）落后特朗普（47%）4个百分点。如果再加上五位潜在的第三方和独立候选人，特朗普的领先优势将扩大到6个百分点，即37%对31%。他们获得的支持率合计为17%，其中由民主党人转为独立候选人的小罗伯特-肯尼迪获得的支持率最高，为8%。</p>\n<p>在新调查中，对拜登的不满情绪普遍存在，不过大部分都出现在民主党倾向群体中，他们在选举日可能仍会支持拜登。只有23%的选民说拜登的政策对他们个人有帮助，而53%的选民说他们受到了总统议程的伤害。相比之下，约半数选民表示特朗普担任总统时的政策对他们个人有帮助，超过了37%的选民表示受到伤害。</p>\n<p>“拜登经济学”是拜登的标志性经济纲领，但只有不到30%的选民对其表示赞同，超过半数的选民对其表示反对。三分之二的选民认为经济状况不佳或不好，三分之二的选民认为在拜登执政的过去两年中经济状况变得更糟。一个更广泛的悲观迹象是，48%的人说他们不相信这一代人会比上一代人做得更好，而44%的人说这一代人的状况会更好。 作为民主党联盟的重要支柱，年轻选民对经济的焦虑似乎很重。例如，在35岁以下的选民中，只有不到三分之一的人表示经济状况良好，而在65岁及以上的选民中，这一比例为40%。</p>\n<p>民主党民调专家Bocian说，拜登在几个一贯投民主党票的群体——年轻选民、黑人和拉丁裔选民中的支持率不足。“他们现在感到经济压力和挑战。他们没有表现出2020年和2022年的投票热情，”他说。但他说，距离大选还有一年时间，重新组建拜登联盟“是完全可行的”。</p>\n<p>悲观情绪可能正在消退的一个迹象是，26%的人认为通胀正朝着正确的方向发展，高于8月份民调中的20%。如果这种变化持续下去，将有助于提升拜登的声望。 拜登一直在调整其关于经济的信息，将重点更多地放在抑制通胀而非创造就业上。创造高薪工作岗位是民主党支持的为新基础设施和制造业提供资金的立法的核心目标，但在选民看来，与高物价相比，工作岗位更不值得关注。白宫最近公布了一个新的供应链委员会，其部分目的是遏制通胀，拜登最近也呼吁企业“停止哄抬物价”。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>罕见！拜登施压美联储：强劲非农不是加息的理由</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=128367&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5aedc728b5cfeb670ff564152703eba6","relate_stocks":{"BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=128367&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2390801445","content_text":"美国总统拜登说，上周五公布的非农就业报告显示美国劳动力市场仍有韧性，通胀继续缓解，这是经济的“甜蜜点”，他说这不应该促使美联储进一步加息。这标志着拜登罕见地对美联储的政策制定发表评论。\n美国劳动力市场在11月份意外走强，增加了19.9万个就业岗位，工资增长也缓和了美联储将在明年初降息的押注。拜登上周五表示，这应被视为“坚实、稳定”的增长。\n他在内华达州拉斯维加斯发表演讲时称这一数字是“稳定增长和降低通胀所需的‘甜蜜点’，而不是鼓励美联储加息”。 近几任美国总统都避免对美联储发表例行评论，因为他们担心削弱该央行制定货币政策的传统独立性，并给人留下决策受政治驱动的印象。 然而，拜登的前任特朗普却多次就美联储的政策抨击美联储主席鲍威尔。特朗普于2017年提名鲍威尔领导美联储，鲍威尔于次年接任。\n拜登这番言论发表之际，他正在为竞选连任做准备，而美国经济的好坏将在一定程度上取决于他对美国经济的管理。民意调查显示，选民对美国经济的评价很低。\n《华尔街日报》的一项最新民调显示，拜登的政治地位正处于其总统任期内最弱的时期，选民给他的工作表现打出了最低分，同时，特朗普首次获得了更多的青睐。在只有这两位候选人的假设投票中，拜登（43%）落后特朗普（47%）4个百分点。如果再加上五位潜在的第三方和独立候选人，特朗普的领先优势将扩大到6个百分点，即37%对31%。他们获得的支持率合计为17%，其中由民主党人转为独立候选人的小罗伯特-肯尼迪获得的支持率最高，为8%。\n在新调查中，对拜登的不满情绪普遍存在，不过大部分都出现在民主党倾向群体中，他们在选举日可能仍会支持拜登。只有23%的选民说拜登的政策对他们个人有帮助，而53%的选民说他们受到了总统议程的伤害。相比之下，约半数选民表示特朗普担任总统时的政策对他们个人有帮助，超过了37%的选民表示受到伤害。\n“拜登经济学”是拜登的标志性经济纲领，但只有不到30%的选民对其表示赞同，超过半数的选民对其表示反对。三分之二的选民认为经济状况不佳或不好，三分之二的选民认为在拜登执政的过去两年中经济状况变得更糟。一个更广泛的悲观迹象是，48%的人说他们不相信这一代人会比上一代人做得更好，而44%的人说这一代人的状况会更好。 作为民主党联盟的重要支柱，年轻选民对经济的焦虑似乎很重。例如，在35岁以下的选民中，只有不到三分之一的人表示经济状况良好，而在65岁及以上的选民中，这一比例为40%。\n民主党民调专家Bocian说，拜登在几个一贯投民主党票的群体——年轻选民、黑人和拉丁裔选民中的支持率不足。“他们现在感到经济压力和挑战。他们没有表现出2020年和2022年的投票热情，”他说。但他说，距离大选还有一年时间，重新组建拜登联盟“是完全可行的”。\n悲观情绪可能正在消退的一个迹象是，26%的人认为通胀正朝着正确的方向发展，高于8月份民调中的20%。如果这种变化持续下去，将有助于提升拜登的声望。 拜登一直在调整其关于经济的信息，将重点更多地放在抑制通胀而非创造就业上。创造高薪工作岗位是民主党支持的为新基础设施和制造业提供资金的立法的核心目标，但在选民看来，与高物价相比，工作岗位更不值得关注。白宫最近公布了一个新的供应链委员会，其部分目的是遏制通胀，拜登最近也呼吁企业“停止哄抬物价”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":734,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":667062619,"gmtCreate":1668437929732,"gmtModify":1668439304110,"author":{"id":"3535348245787846","authorId":"3535348245787846","name":"福雷亩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/636b7bfc97835f1a847c20b68da0b75a","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535348245787846","authorIdStr":"3535348245787846"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/667062619","repostId":"1158040229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158040229","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1666243273,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158040229?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-20 13:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"加息到5%以上？未来数周，美联储官员或许会密集放风","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158040229","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"瑞银预计，联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>瑞银预计，联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。</b></blockquote><p>瑞银预计，越来越多的FOMC成员将主张把联邦基金利率提高至5%以上。</p><p>瑞银在10月18日的研报中指出，预计美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在11月的会议上加息75个基点，在12月加息75个基点，在2023年2月加息50个基点。<b>联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。</b></p><p>瑞银还另外上调了对12月和2月的加息幅度预期，并推迟了对其降息时间的预期，防止实际利率随着通胀的下降而上升。</p><p>美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国9月核心CPI同比上涨6.6%，高于预期，并再创1982年8月以来的新高。瑞银认为，这增加了美联储下个月继续加息75个基点的可能性。但一些FOMC成员可能倾向于放缓加息步伐，预计这场争论将持续到年底。因此，瑞银认为FOMC在12月的会议上有可能只加息50个基点。</p><p>然而，瑞银预测美国今年第四季度的核心PCE通胀为4.6%，比FOMC在9月的预测中值高0.1个百分点，并且大多数FOMC成员可能会继续上修他们的预期，并将更多通胀因素纳入考虑，<b>这意味着更大的加息幅度，以及更高的利率峰值。</b></p><p>瑞银认为，<b>在未来几周会听到更多FOMC成员讨论将联邦基金利率的目标区间提高到5%或更高。</b>如果采用符合9月FOMC经济预测摘要（SEP）的政策规则，并用对12月的SEP通胀预测替换掉对9月SEP的预测，就意味着2023年初联邦基金利率的目标区间将超过5%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28a9ee7c15c9a0184abe7a5fcaca347b\" tg-width=\"589\" tg-height=\"476\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>瑞银总结道，预计未来还会有更多的加息，而硬着陆的风险正在上升。</p><p>上周，巴克莱也在报告中指出，预计美联储加息步伐将更加激进，<b>可能在2023年将利率峰值提高到5%水平以上</b>。具体来看，巴克莱预计美联储11和12月各加息75个基点，明年2月份加息50个基点，<b>利率峰值将在2月份达到5.00-5.25%</b>，高于之前的预期4.50-4.75%。</p><p>这些华尔街投行的预测也与近期美联储官员的立场不谋而合。上周，鹰派倾向的美联储官员、今年拥有货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯联储主席乔治（Esther George）表示，鉴于通胀顽固居高不下，<b>美联储可能必须提高利率峰值，并将那个水平的利率保持得更久。</b></p><p>相比这点，她更警惕的是行动的速度以及激进的程度。联储料将必须持续加息，但加息过快可能扰乱金融市场。</p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>加息到5%以上？未来数周，美联储官员或许会密集放风</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n加息到5%以上？未来数周，美联储官员或许会密集放风\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-20 13:21 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672813><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>瑞银预计，联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。瑞银预计，越来越多的FOMC成员将主张把联邦基金利率提高至5%以上。瑞银在10月18日的研报中指出，预计美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在11月的会议上加息75个基点，在12月加息75个基点，在2023年2月加息50个基点。联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672813\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672813","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1158040229","content_text":"瑞银预计，联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。瑞银预计，越来越多的FOMC成员将主张把联邦基金利率提高至5%以上。瑞银在10月18日的研报中指出，预计美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在11月的会议上加息75个基点，在12月加息75个基点，在2023年2月加息50个基点。联邦基金利率的目标区间将在2022年底达到4.5%至4.75%，2023年底达到5.0%至5.25%。瑞银还另外上调了对12月和2月的加息幅度预期，并推迟了对其降息时间的预期，防止实际利率随着通胀的下降而上升。美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，美国9月核心CPI同比上涨6.6%，高于预期，并再创1982年8月以来的新高。瑞银认为，这增加了美联储下个月继续加息75个基点的可能性。但一些FOMC成员可能倾向于放缓加息步伐，预计这场争论将持续到年底。因此，瑞银认为FOMC在12月的会议上有可能只加息50个基点。然而，瑞银预测美国今年第四季度的核心PCE通胀为4.6%，比FOMC在9月的预测中值高0.1个百分点，并且大多数FOMC成员可能会继续上修他们的预期，并将更多通胀因素纳入考虑，这意味着更大的加息幅度，以及更高的利率峰值。瑞银认为，在未来几周会听到更多FOMC成员讨论将联邦基金利率的目标区间提高到5%或更高。如果采用符合9月FOMC经济预测摘要（SEP）的政策规则，并用对12月的SEP通胀预测替换掉对9月SEP的预测，就意味着2023年初联邦基金利率的目标区间将超过5%。瑞银总结道，预计未来还会有更多的加息，而硬着陆的风险正在上升。上周，巴克莱也在报告中指出，预计美联储加息步伐将更加激进，可能在2023年将利率峰值提高到5%水平以上。具体来看，巴克莱预计美联储11和12月各加息75个基点，明年2月份加息50个基点，利率峰值将在2月份达到5.00-5.25%，高于之前的预期4.50-4.75%。这些华尔街投行的预测也与近期美联储官员的立场不谋而合。上周，鹰派倾向的美联储官员、今年拥有货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的堪萨斯联储主席乔治（Esther 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