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lyt_yang
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IP属地:浙江
29
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热门
lyt_yang
2020-07-27
$拼多多(PDD)$
起不来了吗
lyt_yang
2020-07-27
$Alpha Pro Tech Ltd(APT)$
疫苗快出来了,口罩还有用吗
lyt_yang
2020-06-13
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
论跳水,没人能比得过你
lyt_yang
2020-06-09
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
[心碎]
lyt_yang
2020-05-28
$拼多多(PDD)$
跌了这么多,该回来了
lyt_yang
2020-05-28
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
咁你 老mu o
lyt_yang
2020-05-25
$中兴通讯(00763)$
买了你真是造孽呀[捂脸]
lyt_yang
2020-05-19
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
咋这么垃圾[捂脸]
lyt_yang
2020-05-14
$美国航空(AAL)$
🐮
lyt_yang
2020-05-07
$维珍银河(SPCE)$
加油,快解套了[捂脸]
lyt_yang
2020-04-29
$维珍银河(SPCE)$
你咋啦[捂脸]
lyt_yang
2020-04-24
$腾讯控股(00700)$
为啥天天跟大盘[疑问]
lyt_yang
2020-04-22
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
什么操作[疑问]
lyt_yang
2020-04-21
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
庄都不愿意带你玩,拉高出货的人都没有
lyt_yang
2020-04-21
$拼多多(PDD)$
空早了,49块多[笑哭]
lyt_yang
2020-04-21
$拼多多(PDD)$
牛逼,咋不上天[无语]
lyt_yang
2020-04-20
$平安好医生(01833)$
牛皮,可惜没赶上车
lyt_yang
2020-04-17
$维珍银河(SPCE)$
啥时候能站稳20?
lyt_yang
2020-04-17
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
上20是一道坎
lyt_yang
2020-04-16
$维珍银河(SPCE)$
醒醒,别睡了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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10:08","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"曹德旺:这次危机是史无前例的,我们首要是活下来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179210786","media":"新京报","summary":"在疫情后,要预防全球经济进入大萧条的可能性,需求量可能也会大量减少。4.这次的危机是史无前例的,我们首先要能够活下来,再求下一步的发展。当下全球经济仍处在巨大的不确定性中,曹德旺认为,此次疫情给世界经济带来的危机,是非常特别的,相信没有先例。“中国经济受进口和出口影响很大,一定要未雨绸缪。活下去是硬道理,我们首先要能够活下来,要高度重视粮食问题。”","content":"<div>\n<p>核心观点:1.全球产业链不会在短期内得到恢复,可能需要几年甚至更长的时间。在疫情后,要预防全球经济进入大萧条的可能性,需求量可能也会大量减少。出口订单减少导致企业经营压力增加,解决企业的问题关键在订单上,也许不是在资金流上。2.疫情后,各国着手构建更独立、完整、安全的产业链会是一个趋势,会出现逆全球化的阴影。不过,在短期内各个国家很难构造出独立的产业链和工业体系,全球产业链也难以在短期内发生逆转性...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://m.bjnews.com.cn/detail/158675904415985.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"xjb","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n曹德旺:这次危机是史无前例的,我们首要是活下来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-14 10:08 北京时间 <a href=https://m.bjnews.com.cn/detail/158675904415985.html><strong>新京报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点:1.全球产业链不会在短期内得到恢复,可能需要几年甚至更长的时间。在疫情后,要预防全球经济进入大萧条的可能性,需求量可能也会大量减少。出口订单减少导致企业经营压力增加,解决企业的问题关键在订单上,也许不是在资金流上。2.疫情后,各国着手构建更独立、完整、安全的产业链会是一个趋势,会出现逆全球化的阴影。不过,在短期内各个国家很难构造出独立的产业链和工业体系,全球产业链也难以在短期内发生逆转性...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://m.bjnews.com.cn/detail/158675904415985.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b33c2a3a283a0be32f216eb9b846734c","relate_stocks":{"600660":"福耀玻璃","03606":"福耀玻璃"},"source_url":"https://m.bjnews.com.cn/detail/158675904415985.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179210786","content_text":"核心观点:1.全球产业链不会在短期内得到恢复,可能需要几年甚至更长的时间。在疫情后,要预防全球经济进入大萧条的可能性,需求量可能也会大量减少。出口订单减少导致企业经营压力增加,解决企业的问题关键在订单上,也许不是在资金流上。2.疫情后,各国着手构建更独立、完整、安全的产业链会是一个趋势,会出现逆全球化的阴影。不过,在短期内各个国家很难构造出独立的产业链和工业体系,全球产业链也难以在短期内发生逆转性的变化,全球产业链在短期内不会,也无法与中国脱钩。3.如果没有防疫物资等传统的制造业,我们也要严重依赖进口。中国必须应该有一个长期繁荣昌盛的传统产业,否则中国经济就无法实现独立自主。4.这次的危机是史无前例的,我们首先要能够活下来,再求下一步的发展。现在不要在乎GDP增速多少,应该把国家安全、社会稳定作为第一目标。全球疫情仍未迎来拐点时刻,面对严峻复杂的国际疫情和世界经济形势,国家高层最近表示,我们要坚持底线思维,做好较长时间应对外部环境变化的思想准备和工作准备。疫情蔓延全球,中国出口承压,从企业家角度看,要不要救企业,尤其是外贸出口的企业?新京报记者就这些问题采访了福耀集团董事长曹德旺,曹德旺认为,这一次中国企业遇到的危机和之前遇到的危机完全不一样,是外国受疫情影响订单减少导致企业经营压力增加,用什么方式救企业考验政府的智慧。“政府在救助企业的时候一定要有针对性,同时还可以考虑普惠性的政策,比如取消企业在疫情期间的增值税、允许大企业免提折旧费等。”疫情不只改变着微观企业的命运,也在重构全球经济政治的秩序。在曹德旺看来,疫后各国着手构建更独立、完整、安全的产业链会是一个趋势,或许逆全球化的趋势不可避免,并最终会成为定局。“但在短期内各个国家很难构造出独立的产业链和工业体系,全球产业链也难以在短期内发生逆转性的变化,全球产业链短期内不会,也无法和中国脱钩。”值得注意的是,近年来随着制造业成本的升高,出现了部分产业链转移到东南亚的现象。在曹德旺看来,中国必须应该有一个长期繁荣昌盛的传统产业,必须要留住这些企业,否则中国经济无法实现独立自主。当下全球经济仍处在巨大的不确定性中,曹德旺认为,此次疫情给世界经济带来的危机,是非常特别的,相信没有先例。“中国经济受进口和出口影响很大,一定要未雨绸缪。活下去是硬道理,我们首先要能够活下来,要高度重视粮食问题。”“企业管理层要带头减薪”新京报:近期福耀通过超短融资券融资4亿,以维持正常运营和发展。经过国内外疫情双重冲击,福耀能挺过去吗?曹德旺:疫情冲击,公司肯定会遭受很大的损失。但福耀的负债率一直很低,没有乱投资,我相信这次可以坚持过去。现在看,虽然疫情冲击,但我们一季度业绩还勉强。新京报:国内外疫情双重冲击对中国制造业影响多大?曹德旺:在国内疫情蔓延时,中国已经停产停工了两个月。现在海外疫情蔓延,我们要陪着全世界继续停产停工。大多数的制造业,尤其是外贸出口的制造业企业的日子会比较难过、难熬,有些企业甚至可能很难熬过去。现在很多企业面临着两难的局面——如果留住工人,在没有订单的情况下,工人的工资是一笔很大的支出。如果裁员,这些年一直招工难,等疫情恢复之后,可能就招不回来了。新京报:你对企业家有什么建议?曹德旺:企业家首先要自己有思路,要想办法自救、自保。适者生存,企业家一定要审时度势,及时调整自己的经营思路。根据市场的需要,如果要减薪,管理层要带头减,如果要适当的裁员,那么一定要严格按照国家补偿标准,补偿给被遣散的员工。另外,企业一定要保护好自己的现金流,只有充足的现金流才能保证企业未来重新正常运转起来。越是在困难的时刻,我们越要反思和总结,为什么我们的企业禁不起疫情的折腾?因为不少企业在这些年进行多元化投资,现金流本来就很紧张,很多企业经不起疫情的冲击,一下子就倒下了。我们要记住,企业家要对经手的钱树立高度的责任心,无论这钱是从银行借的,还是投资人投的,都叫钱,要无条件守护好。“全球产业链的恢复可能需要几年的时间”新京报:出口是拉动中国经济的三驾马车之一,现在很多人在讨论如何救助企业,尤其是外贸出口的企业。对此,你怎么看?曹德旺:企业一旦倒闭,就很难再恢复起来了。中国的出口企业以中小企业为主,这些庞大的中小企业创造了中国大部分的外汇。如果可以话,还是应该给与企业一定的救助。但这一次中国企业遇到的危机和之前遇到的危机完全不一样,这就加大了救助企业的难度:第一,现在全球的供应链已经断掉了,这是非常可怕的事情。疫情在全球蔓延,海外市场的需求已萎缩,我们生产出来的东西卖给谁呢?从长远看,经过这次疫情,会有很多不起眼的小工厂倒下,但这些小工厂是全球产业链中重要的一环,一旦倒闭再重新建起来,就需要一个过程。因此,我相信全球产业链不会在短期内得到恢复,可能需要几年甚至更长的时间。第二,此次疫情重创全球经济,各国政府为救市消耗了大量的财力。就像一个人生了大病,体能在受到破坏的同时,又增加了看病花钱的负担。在疫情后,要预防全球经济进入大萧条的可能性,需求量可能也会大量减少。而且现在飞机停飞、很多卸货的码头工人回家,我们生产出来的东西往外运输也存在一定的困难。出口订单减少导致企业经营压力增加,解决企业的问题关键在订单上,也许不是在资金流上。单纯用给钱的方式解决不了企业当前订单需求下降的问题,政府在救助企业的时候一定要有针对性,这就需要我们的政府去深入的研究和思考。还有一些普惠性的政策也许可以考虑。在税收上,我们实行的是增值税制度,也就是说企业亏本的话也要交税,很多企业希望政府在疫情期间取消企业的增值税,减轻企业的亏损压力。此外,美国在2008年金融危机救助企业时,修改了会计法,类似方式我认为也可以借鉴。新京报:中国还有一个14亿人口的消费市场,转向内销能否成为外向型企业的出路?曹德旺:这个估计也有一定的难度。我们是有一个庞大的消费市场,但我们大多数人最大的消费支出可能就是花钱买房子了。除了房子,可能大多数人平常真正的消费需求和支出并没有多少。而且疫情还没有真正过去,消费还会受到一定的影响。“我们一定要警惕疫情后全球产业链去中国化”新京报:此次疫情暴露了全球产业链太长的风险,疫情之后,全球产业链是否会发生变化?曹德旺:在过去的几十年中,世界各国立足于全球化并从中获益,每个国家的产业链都无法独善其身,必须嵌入到全球的产业链中。但这次疫情之后,各国的不信任度将增加。相信各个国家会对产业链政策做出一定的调整,各国着手构建更独立、完整、安全的产业链会是一个趋势。在全球产业链被简化的趋势下,会出现逆全球化的阴影。或许逆全球化的趋势不可避免,并最终会成为定局,但逆全球化会给各国巨大的伤害,对全球经济也是巨大的灾难。新京报:现在很多人在讨论,全球产业链是否会加速和中国脱钩?曹德旺:在疫情后,各国都想建立独立完整的产业链,全球产业链会被简化。疫情后,全球产业链会减少对中国的依赖,我们一定要警惕全球产业链去中国化。不过,在短期内各个国家很难构造出独立的产业链和工业体系,全球产业链也难以在短期内发生逆转性的变化。有的国家有构造独立产业链的能力,有的国家却没有这个能力。即使是美国、欧洲的发达国家,想要在疫后形成独立完整的产业链并不是一件容易的事情。在过去的几十年中,美国、欧洲很多发达国家一直实行去工业的政策,大力发展虚拟经济,现在看这些国家的工业化已经被去的差不多了,很多产业已经断代。如果要重新恢复制造业,形成独立的产业链体系,有很大的难度——第一缺乏进行产业投资的人、缺老板。无论日本、韩国,还是欧美,很多制造业企业的二代不愿意接班经营工厂、做制造业,更愿意去做互联网、金融等虚拟经济;第二缺乏劳动力,去工业化导致年轻人去从事了金融、房地产等行业,制造业缺乏年轻的工人。在美国、欧洲,最便宜的是电、天然气等能源资源,最贵的就是劳工成本,发达国家的劳动成本高于中国。第三缺乏管理人员;第四缺乏资金。此外,工会制度的存在,劳资双方的紧张阻碍了美国、欧洲制造业发展,这一难题很难处理。这是因为两党竞选机制与竞选纲领是劳资关系紧张的主要根源,这一问题短期内无法解决。现在一些产业链往东南亚转移,但是现在的东南亚就像改革开放之初的中国一样,基础设施很差——道路很差导致交通物流不畅,水电的供应也经常不稳定,而且要到另外一个地区重新设立一个工厂要至少两三年的时间,这些都是企业要考虑到的成本。从中国的社会经济环境看,中国经过40多年的改革开放,中国经济和世界经济相互交叉,你中有我、我中有你,全球供应链和产业链和中国脱钩的话,对双方都会带来巨大的伤害。而且,现在放眼全世界,从俄罗斯、日本、韩国,再到欧洲、美国,全世界只有我们勤劳的中国工人还在认真做事。因此,在短期内,全球产业链很难找到替代中国的经济体或者解决办法,全球产业链无法、不会与中国脱钩。同时,我们也必须反省,随着劳动力成本的升高、贸易摩擦等因素影响,中国制造业的成本在上升,中国制造正在国际上失去原有的竞争力,出现了产业链向东南亚转移的现象。制造业竞争力的下降,会引起国家竞争力的下降,这必须引起我们全体中国人的反省。“没有传统制造业 中国经济无法实现独立自主”新京报:也有很多人认为,迁往东南亚地区的产业是低端制造业,不必留住这些低端企业和低端产业。曹德旺:中国工业化的基础本来就很差,这些企业都搬走了,我们还剩下什么呢?我认为,必须要留住这些企业,否则将来我们一定会后悔的。我们中国人、中国的企业太急功近利了,经常把产业分为高端和低端。在很多人眼里,互联网、大数据、信息化是高端产业,制造业意味着廉价劳动力,是低端产业。但是这次疫情发生之后,一个N95口罩在美国最高卖到了175美金,成为了高端产品。从这里我们可以总结出:天下只有低端品位的人,没有低端产业。通过这次疫情,我们也要反思,如果没有防疫物资等传统的制造业,我们也要严重依赖进口。中国必须应该有一个长期繁荣昌盛的传统产业,否则中国经济就无法实现独立自主。当然,在疫情后中国要建立起独立完备的工业体系,除了要重视传统制造业,还必须要掌握核心技术,没有核心技术,就不得不受制于国外的产业链。同时,制造业是国民经济的基础,如果没有基础的传统制造业产业,很多所谓的高端产业根本发展不起来。在我看来,互联网也好、芯片技术也好、大数据也好,这些技术或者工具可以提高经济运行和发展的效率。但是如果没有制造业,高端产业的发展根本无从谈起。就好像桌子上摆满了漂亮精致的刀叉,如果没有食物,这些刀叉用来做什么呢?只能是摆设而已。在国民经济中,各个产业谁也离不开谁,没有高端、低端之分,各个产业要协调发展,这样才能形成完备的工业体系。新京报:如何留住这些企业?曹德旺:过度的房地产投资导致银行的资金、劳工等资源都会流向房地产,推高了制造业的成本。不再盲目搞房地产,大批的劳动力、资金就剩下来了。“还无法预估这次危机的最终影响,我们能够活下来是关键”新京报:当前复杂的国内外经济形势下,你最忧虑什么?曹德旺:疫情之下,航班停飞、封国封城,全世界乱成了一锅粥——疫情完全打乱了全球的秩序。正因为全球供应链已经凌乱,疫情的破坏力才如此巨大。这一次疫情给世界经济带来的危机,远远不是2008年金融危机可以类比的,虽然还无法预估这次危机的最终影响,但这一次危机应该是史无前例的。中国经济受进口和出口影响很大,我们必须要意识到当前面临的内外部形势非常严峻,一定要未雨绸缪。活下去是硬道理,我们首先要能够活下来,在解决了温饱问题之后,再求下一步的发展,再求好、求精。我们现在不要在乎GDP增速多少,应该把国家安全、社会稳定作为第一目标。我现在最关心粮食问题。我是经历过粮食困难的人,知道饿肚子的滋味。虽然我们的主粮供给是充足的,但有关部门一定要高度重视粮食问题。现在很多国家都在禁止出口粮食,我们也应该珍惜每一粒粮食,同时应向三农倾斜资金,以防万一。新京报:谢谢你接受新京报的采访。曹德旺:我的这些意见不一定全部正确,但我不是为了我个人利益,全部都是为国家着想,我是替国家着急。我今年已经74岁了,我不知道我说这些话、做这些事情是不是自作多情。但我对这个国家很有感情,我认为,中国是中国人的中国,整个中国都应该倡导以国家利益为重。我们必须勒紧裤腰带,统一思想跟总书记走,渡过这次的难关。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964785712,"gmtCreate":1584458346836,"gmtModify":1704354319578,"author":{"id":"3535150445661117","authorId":"3535150445661117","name":"lyt_yang","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08ed896bd405e78592be1025beab48ca","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3535150445661117","authorIdStr":"3535150445661117"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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