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lvpking
2023-05-14
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
抱歉，原内容已删除
lvpking
2023-05-14
欧欧
抱歉，原内容已删除
lvpking
2023-05-14
，，，，，，，，小拒要66我舅舅绝薛⊙∀⊙！e，
抱歉，原内容已删除
lvpking
2023-05-14
哦可以隐隐约约8 还有
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还有","listText":"哦可以隐隐约约8 还有","text":"哦可以隐隐约约8 还有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656789165","repostId":"1133932406","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1133932406","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1684021385,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1133932406?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-14 07:43","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"如何把握“中特估”行情？一篇看懂主要逻辑：四大主线和三条辅线","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133932406","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"广发证券指出，本轮央企改革“站位更高、格局更大、任务更急”，从四大主线和三条辅助线索（重组改革/“世界一流”/产业转型/“一利五率”；高股息率/投关管理/资本开支）把握重估动能。国企改革进入新阶段，“","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>广发证券指出，本轮央企改革“站位更高、格局更大、任务更急”，从四大主线和三条辅助线索（重组改革/“世界一流”/产业转型/“一利五率”；高股息率/投关管理/资本开支）把握重估动能。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国企改革进入新阶段，“中特估”概念迎来大爆发，成为近期贯穿沪深两市的主线，本轮央国企重估应该把握哪些方向？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">广发证券在最新的报告中全面梳理央国企重估核心逻辑，从四大主线和三条辅助线索解读重估动能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">改革开放以来我国四轮国企改革阶段图，如今新一轮国企改革蓄势待发。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>广发证券分析师戴康指出，本轮改革“站位更高、格局更大、任务更急”：“中国式现代化→中国特色估值体系→对标世界一流企业→国际国内核心竞争力→现代化产业体系→价值创新创造”。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8e6660613189b9b3e1c5592f7341bc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p><strong>四大主线</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1、上市平台改革</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">广发证券指出，本轮上市平台改革政策确定性强、路径清晰，目的为推进央企专业化整合、做强做精优势主业。</p><blockquote>目前，专业化整合主要集中在军工、电力、钢铁等重点领域。根据国资委《提高央企控股上市公司质量工作方案》，2024年底前要求调整盘活一批上市平台。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4cab0012c907972897e1e99d5b4a7b12\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"438\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">根据国资委《提高央企控股上市公司质量工作方案》，关注一下三方面的标的：</p><blockquote>（1） 同业竞争资产重组，利于盘活缺乏持续经营能力、长期丧失融资功能的存量资产，或者加强优质资产集中度，如中航电子换股吸收合并中航机电，关注央企集团旗下具有2家及以上上市平台，且主营业务重合度高的标的；</blockquote><blockquote>（2）分拆上市，利于母公司剥离非优势业务、子公司拓宽融资渠道及提高经营效率，如中国联通分拆子公司智网科技至科创板上市，关注央企集团旗下上市平台数量少或仅1家、主业集中度低的标的；</blockquote><blockquote>（3）未上市资产注入，利于优质资产向上市公司汇集或盘活存量资产，如中航电测拟收购成飞集团，关注资产证券化率相对低的央企集团，即具备一定未上市优质。</blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2、对标国际龙头</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">广发证券指出，前后两批世界一流示范央企在ROE和盈利增速上逐步赶超央企整体水平，尤其重视研发投入，根据3月31日国资委副主任翁杰明表述，世界一流示范企业力争研发投入强度超过行业平均值2倍以上。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国资委从“五维度”定义“世界一流”，“主业突出、技术领先、管理先进、绩效优秀、全球资源配置能力强”的世界一流企业，可以对应相关路径：</p><blockquote>路径一：对标国际龙头存在ROE修复空间，提高国际化经营能力。PB-ROE视角下，石油石化、工程机械、电力等行业的世界一流示范央企与国际龙头差距相对 较大，着力提高国际竞争力，尤其是传统能源行业。</blockquote><blockquote>路径二：央企“一带一路”参与度仍有提升空间。目前电力、交运、建筑等基 建类央企参与“一带一路”建设较多，据国资委公布数据，已有81家央企参与沿线 项目超过3400个，“十三五”期间央企实现海外营业收入超过24万亿元，对外投资收益率达到6.7%。据绿色“一带一路”中心官网数据，2020年参与投资 “一带一路” 国家项目的主要是央企。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f314a2b0369d4378e2a3aa64d6a9a72\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3、产业结构升级</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第三条主线为产业结构升级，广发证券指出，央国企参与构建现代化产业体系是题中应有之意，一方面契合我国经济结构转型升级的大势，另一方面以创新发展促央企内生增长，</p><blockquote>转型方向之一：自主创新能力。一方面，聚焦打造产业链链长企业；另一方面，在战略性新兴产业打造央企集团，比如半导体、新能源、操作系统、软件开发、 新材料等领域。</blockquote><blockquote>转型方向之二：数字化能力。 我国央企正有序推进数字化转型行动计划，据《数字国资》最新统计，目前超60 家央企公布了数字化转型战略，主要聚焦在智慧能源和智慧交通领域。</blockquote><blockquote>转型方向之三：绿色低碳能力。 央企实现绿色低碳转型共有五个重点方向：①传统产业低碳改造②布局新能源，推动能源结构优化、非化石能源占比提高；③发展循环经济④攻关绿色低碳技术⑤建立绿色投融机制等。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a364d94e377f127a1617415130dcff\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>4、“一利五率”经营考核</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国资委将央企经营指标体系由“两利四率”调整为“一利五率”，增强上市央企业绩预期：</p><blockquote>1. “一增”：利润总额增速维持超GDP增速的目标；</blockquote><blockquote>2. “一稳”：资产负债率维持稳定在65%左右，根据国资委官网数据，22年央企资产负债率64.8%；</blockquote><blockquote>3. “四提高”：新增的ROE、营业现金比率指标以及原有的研发投入强度、全员劳动生产率指标继续提高。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a67b0a3a67c485669716687b06e49010\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"422\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，广发证券认为，应关注新增ROE、营业现金比率指标，指向行业：（1）ROE相对高且当前相对民 企低估的航运港口/电池/乘用车/化学原料；（2）营业现金比率相对高且当前相对民企低估的证券/航运港口/通信服务/保险/煤炭开采。</p><p><strong>三大辅线</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>1、高股息权重升</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">广发证券指出，国央企承担社会价值、重视股东回报（高股息），是国民经济的“压舱石”， 行业上主要集中于军工、电力、通信、机械设备等攸关国民经济的重点工业领域。</p><blockquote>第一，国央企重视股东回报，以高股息率践行国有资本的社会责任，5月9日， 三只中证国新央企股东回报ETF（广发、汇添富、招商）发布募集公告，该指数反映 高股东回报率（高股息率/回购率）央企的整体表现。第二，国央企中高ESG评级企业明显多于民企，且集中在军工、交运、计算机等央企低估行业。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc19e50f97190a0ae09cecdf57b31430\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"396\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2、投资者关注度</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国央企的机构调研及个股关注度偏低，表明市场对国央企上市公司的价值认同度不足。相较于民营企业，股东对业绩的诉求较为宽松，更多是要求企业完成社会责任。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而，广发证券认为，社会责任与社会价值具有很高的正外部性，难以在现有的西方传统估值体系 、下有所衡量，进而造成了承担了更多社会责任的国有企业估值偏低的结果。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96741be44b3789547886aea32fddb056\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>3、加杠杆空间高</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2023年央企将加大关键领域投资力度，尤其是战略性新兴产业。根据广发证券总结，目前央企处于资本开支上行周期，投资的方向亦符合央企产业转型方向：</p><blockquote>1. 新基建，包含：（1）数字基建，如5G、数据中心、工业互联网、物联网、 算力基础设施；（2）新能源基建，如新能源充电桩、特高压。</blockquote><blockquote>2. 产业链强链补链，聚焦高端装备、新一代信息技术、新材料等领域。</blockquote><blockquote>3. 国家重大项目，包含国家“十四五”102个重大工程、中央企业“十四五”规划确定的1400项重大投资项目，如电网电力企业参与风光大基地项目等。</blockquote><blockquote>4. 前瞻战略性新兴产业，主要包含前沿技术研发及应用，包括AI、量子计算、 生物制造、新能源等。</blockquote></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>如何把握“中特估”行情？一篇看懂主要逻辑：四大主线和三条辅线</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n如何把握“中特估”行情？一篇看懂主要逻辑：四大主线和三条辅线\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n2023-05-14 07:43 北京时间 <strong>华尔街见闻</strong>\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>广发证券指出，本轮央企改革“站位更高、格局更大、任务更急”，从四大主线和三条辅助线索（重组改革/“世界一流”/产业转型/“一利五率”；高股息率/投关管理/资本开支）把握重估动能。国企改革进入新阶段，“中特估”概念迎来大爆发，成为近期贯穿沪深两市的主线，本轮央国企重估应该把握哪些方向？广发证券在最新的报告中全面梳理央国企重估核心逻辑，从四大主线和三条辅助线索解读重估动能。改革开放以来我国四轮国企改革...</p>\n\n<a href=\"\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41a3265725dba67c0660b26a189585aa","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133932406","content_text":"广发证券指出，本轮央企改革“站位更高、格局更大、任务更急”，从四大主线和三条辅助线索（重组改革/“世界一流”/产业转型/“一利五率”；高股息率/投关管理/资本开支）把握重估动能。国企改革进入新阶段，“中特估”概念迎来大爆发，成为近期贯穿沪深两市的主线，本轮央国企重估应该把握哪些方向？广发证券在最新的报告中全面梳理央国企重估核心逻辑，从四大主线和三条辅助线索解读重估动能。改革开放以来我国四轮国企改革阶段图，如今新一轮国企改革蓄势待发。广发证券分析师戴康指出，本轮改革“站位更高、格局更大、任务更急”：“中国式现代化→中国特色估值体系→对标世界一流企业→国际国内核心竞争力→现代化产业体系→价值创新创造”。四大主线1、上市平台改革广发证券指出，本轮上市平台改革政策确定性强、路径清晰，目的为推进央企专业化整合、做强做精优势主业。目前，专业化整合主要集中在军工、电力、钢铁等重点领域。根据国资委《提高央企控股上市公司质量工作方案》，2024年底前要求调整盘活一批上市平台。根据国资委《提高央企控股上市公司质量工作方案》，关注一下三方面的标的：（1） 同业竞争资产重组，利于盘活缺乏持续经营能力、长期丧失融资功能的存量资产，或者加强优质资产集中度，如中航电子换股吸收合并中航机电，关注央企集团旗下具有2家及以上上市平台，且主营业务重合度高的标的；（2）分拆上市，利于母公司剥离非优势业务、子公司拓宽融资渠道及提高经营效率，如中国联通分拆子公司智网科技至科创板上市，关注央企集团旗下上市平台数量少或仅1家、主业集中度低的标的；（3）未上市资产注入，利于优质资产向上市公司汇集或盘活存量资产，如中航电测拟收购成飞集团，关注资产证券化率相对低的央企集团，即具备一定未上市优质。2、对标国际龙头广发证券指出，前后两批世界一流示范央企在ROE和盈利增速上逐步赶超央企整体水平，尤其重视研发投入，根据3月31日国资委副主任翁杰明表述，世界一流示范企业力争研发投入强度超过行业平均值2倍以上。国资委从“五维度”定义“世界一流”，“主业突出、技术领先、管理先进、绩效优秀、全球资源配置能力强”的世界一流企业，可以对应相关路径：路径一：对标国际龙头存在ROE修复空间，提高国际化经营能力。PB-ROE视角下，石油石化、工程机械、电力等行业的世界一流示范央企与国际龙头差距相对 较大，着力提高国际竞争力，尤其是传统能源行业。路径二：央企“一带一路”参与度仍有提升空间。目前电力、交运、建筑等基 建类央企参与“一带一路”建设较多，据国资委公布数据，已有81家央企参与沿线 项目超过3400个，“十三五”期间央企实现海外营业收入超过24万亿元，对外投资收益率达到6.7%。据绿色“一带一路”中心官网数据，2020年参与投资 “一带一路” 国家项目的主要是央企。3、产业结构升级第三条主线为产业结构升级，广发证券指出，央国企参与构建现代化产业体系是题中应有之意，一方面契合我国经济结构转型升级的大势，另一方面以创新发展促央企内生增长，转型方向之一：自主创新能力。一方面，聚焦打造产业链链长企业；另一方面，在战略性新兴产业打造央企集团，比如半导体、新能源、操作系统、软件开发、 新材料等领域。转型方向之二：数字化能力。 我国央企正有序推进数字化转型行动计划，据《数字国资》最新统计，目前超60 家央企公布了数字化转型战略，主要聚焦在智慧能源和智慧交通领域。转型方向之三：绿色低碳能力。 央企实现绿色低碳转型共有五个重点方向：①传统产业低碳改造②布局新能源，推动能源结构优化、非化石能源占比提高；③发展循环经济④攻关绿色低碳技术⑤建立绿色投融机制等。4、“一利五率”经营考核国资委将央企经营指标体系由“两利四率”调整为“一利五率”，增强上市央企业绩预期：1. “一增”：利润总额增速维持超GDP增速的目标；2. “一稳”：资产负债率维持稳定在65%左右，根据国资委官网数据，22年央企资产负债率64.8%；3. “四提高”：新增的ROE、营业现金比率指标以及原有的研发投入强度、全员劳动生产率指标继续提高。因此，广发证券认为，应关注新增ROE、营业现金比率指标，指向行业：（1）ROE相对高且当前相对民 企低估的航运港口/电池/乘用车/化学原料；（2）营业现金比率相对高且当前相对民企低估的证券/航运港口/通信服务/保险/煤炭开采。三大辅线1、高股息权重升广发证券指出，国央企承担社会价值、重视股东回报（高股息），是国民经济的“压舱石”， 行业上主要集中于军工、电力、通信、机械设备等攸关国民经济的重点工业领域。第一，国央企重视股东回报，以高股息率践行国有资本的社会责任，5月9日， 三只中证国新央企股东回报ETF（广发、汇添富、招商）发布募集公告，该指数反映 高股东回报率（高股息率/回购率）央企的整体表现。第二，国央企中高ESG评级企业明显多于民企，且集中在军工、交运、计算机等央企低估行业。2、投资者关注度国央企的机构调研及个股关注度偏低，表明市场对国央企上市公司的价值认同度不足。相较于民营企业，股东对业绩的诉求较为宽松，更多是要求企业完成社会责任。然而，广发证券认为，社会责任与社会价值具有很高的正外部性，难以在现有的西方传统估值体系 、下有所衡量，进而造成了承担了更多社会责任的国有企业估值偏低的结果。3、加杠杆空间高2023年央企将加大关键领域投资力度，尤其是战略性新兴产业。根据广发证券总结，目前央企处于资本开支上行周期，投资的方向亦符合央企产业转型方向：1. 新基建，包含：（1）数字基建，如5G、数据中心、工业互联网、物联网、 算力基础设施；（2）新能源基建，如新能源充电桩、特高压。2. 产业链强链补链，聚焦高端装备、新一代信息技术、新材料等领域。3. 国家重大项目，包含国家“十四五”102个重大工程、中央企业“十四五”规划确定的1400项重大投资项目，如电网电力企业参与风光大基地项目等。4. 前瞻战略性新兴产业，主要包含前沿技术研发及应用，包括AI、量子计算、 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