小清水的个人主页 - 老虎社区

小清水

小清水

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IP属地：海外

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1主题

0勋章

10-10

如果你猜的那么准那你应该在10年前就梭哈美股了吧，或者说你应该早就财务自由了，怎么还有心情来发帖子

08-02

$英特尔(INTC)$ 特尔啊，是你凭一己之力带走美股的嘛？

08-02

$NQ100指数主连 2409(NQmain)$ 以前是无理由上涨，现在是无理由下跌，搞不懂发生了啥

07-24

我也是这么认为的，短期不参与就是了，长期还是看好

07-12

$NQ100指数主连 2409(NQmain)$ 啥也没发生啊就哐哐跌，憋久了一次性释放？

07-10

毕竟缅a主打一个消费，得了人家的大饼自然是要交钱的啦

06-18

$GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ 卖飞，少赚3个点，真强。

06-05

$纳斯达克100指数(NDX)$ 没有任何消息，就这么往上突突[呆住]

06-01

$迈威尔科技(MRVL)$ 别人是微笑曲线白玩，你是真的[开心]

03-22

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 大哥涨了，为啥你又不涨了

03-21

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

查看详情：竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王快来参与竞猜赢虎币活动，寻找你心中的实盘收益王，邀请好友最多可得250枚虎币此帖仅开放于中国大陆用户

竞猜赢虎币，寻找实盘收益王

03-08

苹果继续摆高姿态，把内存当金子卖，高刷故意不下放，128g起步，继续作。

抱歉，原内容已删除

03-05

$苹果(AAPL)$ 果子不思进取最终反噬自己，这是在为英伟达让路呢[呆住] 让你走奢侈品路线，让你挤牙膏，让你把内存当金子卖，虽然我在用iPhone，但我还是想说一声，呸！

03-01

$NQ100指数主连 2403(NQmain)$ 我也想知道这是咋了，也没啥消息啊，突然直线跳水，还以为今天能突破前高

03-01

也没低多少呀

SoundHound四季度营收逊于预期，预计今年营收将过亿

02-23

看个屁哦，已经1.9万亿了啊

02-23

赚到了赚到了，前天晚上想了一下，我区区2000美金，没了就没了，梭哈了2倍英伟达，今早喜提30个点收益[开心]

02-17

我今天买了个新iPhone11，3100人民币，因为我之前那个备用htc u11今天不亮了，考虑了荣耀100和pro，vivos18和pro，苹果的确是比之前降价了，800-1000，感觉还行，本来是想换安卓的，但又不能接受oled，除了信号，音效和震动还是iPhone舍得堆料，安卓3000的手机可能还是单扬声器和z轴转子马达，我完全不能接受。

郭明錤发布手机市场简报：iPhone降价依然卖不动

02-01

苹果定价本就离谱，内存比金子贵

01-26

字真多还看不懂

抱歉，原内容已删除

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啥也没发生啊就哐哐跌，憋久了一次性释放？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326616486883424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326135972798680,"gmtCreate":1720624632360,"gmtModify":1720624634638,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532334328381517","authorIdStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"毕竟缅a主打一个消费，得了人家的大饼自然是要交钱的啦","listText":"毕竟缅a主打一个消费，得了人家的大饼自然是要交钱的啦","text":"毕竟缅a主打一个消费，得了人家的大饼自然是要交钱的啦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326135972798680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":492,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":318188578914576,"gmtCreate":1718721379519,"gmtModify":1718721380863,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532334328381517","authorIdStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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08:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SoundHound四季度营收逊于预期，预计今年营收将过亿","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161199629","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"3月1日，“英伟达概念股”SoundHound盘后发布财报，财报显示：该公司四季度营收1710万美元，同比增长80%，分析师预期1780万美元。四季度每股亏损0.07美元。全年营收4590万美元，较上年增长47%。预计2025财年增速将加快，营收料将超过1亿美元，实现调整后EBITDA为正。受财报影响，SoundHound盘后跌超19%。","content":"<p style=\"text-align: left;\">3月1日，“英伟达概念股”SoundHound盘后发布财报，财报显示：该公司四季度营收1710万美元，同比增长80%，分析师预期1780万美元。四季度每股亏损0.07美元。全年营收4590万美元，较上年增长47%。预计2025财年增速将加快，营收料将超过1亿美元，实现调整后EBITDA为正。</p><p>受财报影响，SoundHound盘后跌超19%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b7405c7872aedee7feae34e7ff1ff3a\" tg-width=\"385\" tg-height=\"153\"></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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class=\"h-time\">2024-03-01 08:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">3月1日，“英伟达概念股”SoundHound盘后发布财报，财报显示：该公司四季度营收1710万美元，同比增长80%，分析师预期1780万美元。四季度每股亏损0.07美元。全年营收4590万美元，较上年增长47%。预计2025财年增速将加快，营收料将超过1亿美元，实现调整后EBITDA为正。</p><p>受财报影响，SoundHound盘后跌超19%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b7405c7872aedee7feae34e7ff1ff3a\" tg-width=\"385\" 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20:23</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>天风证券分析师郭明錤今天发布市场研究简报，简要回顾了今年1月到春节（2月中旬）期间手机产业的重要更新。</p><p>郭明錤指出，该时间段内一方面3000-4000元价位安卓机型需求稳定恢复，另一方面是2023年第1季度出货量基数较低，因此国内安卓手机出货量同比稳定增长。<strong>苹果iPhone在国内市场出货量同比继续下降，年初的降价对于提振出货量的贡献比较有限。</strong></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2d6b2f654f9b77960ce3f7edcb3a947","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174826116","content_text":"天风证券分析师郭明錤今天发布市场研究简报，简要回顾了今年1月到春节（2月中旬）期间手机产业的重要更新。郭明錤指出，该时间段内一方面3000-4000元价位安卓机型需求稳定恢复，另一方面是2023年第1季度出货量基数较低，因此国内安卓手机出货量同比稳定增长。苹果iPhone在国内市场出货量同比继续下降，年初的降价对于提振出货量的贡献比较有限。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":269452905873704,"gmtCreate":1706801312881,"gmtModify":1706801790632,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532334328381517","authorIdStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"苹果定价本就离谱，内存比金子贵","listText":"苹果定价本就离谱，内存比金子贵","text":"苹果定价本就离谱，内存比金子贵","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/269452905873704","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":267161115853064,"gmtCreate":1706234426624,"gmtModify":1706234458267,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3532334328381517","authorIdStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"字真多还看不懂","listText":"字真多还看不懂","text":"字真多还看不懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/267161115853064","repostId":"1140258203","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":279653085343992,"gmtCreate":1709296209460,"gmtModify":1709296211190,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532334328381517","idStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2403(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 我也想知道这是咋了，也没啥消息啊，突然直线跳水，还以为今天能突破前高","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 2403(NQmain)$&nbsp;</a> 我也想知道这是咋了，也没啥消息啊，突然直线跳水，还以为今天能突破前高","text":"$NQ100指数主连 2403(NQmain)$ 我也想知道这是咋了，也没啥消息啊，突然直线跳水，还以为今天能突破前高","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/279653085343992","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4123065921902030","authorId":"4123065921902030","name":"收割华儿街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/acd20b189b5d1df0d612e0de295c83c6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4123065921902030","idStr":"4123065921902030"},"content":"原因找到了，纽约社区银行暴雷","text":"原因找到了，纽约社区银行暴雷","html":"原因找到了，纽约社区银行暴雷"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":281803611881624,"gmtCreate":1709828215904,"gmtModify":1709828217917,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532334328381517","idStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"苹果继续摆高姿态，把内存当金子卖，高刷故意不下放，128g起步，继续作。","listText":"苹果继续摆高姿态，把内存当金子卖，高刷故意不下放，128g起步，继续作。","text":"苹果继续摆高姿态，把内存当金子卖，高刷故意不下放，128g起步，继续作。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/281803611881624","repostId":"2417727425","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2417727425","pubTimestamp":1709789822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2417727425?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-03-07 13:37","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"细数苹果业务的“十大痛点”，中国市场辉煌不再了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2417727425","media":"凤凰网科技","summary":"在此过程中，苹果的市值也受到了冲击。今年2月，苹果代表还与美司法部进行了最后一次会面，试图说服该机构不要继续提起诉讼。但是，苹果明确缺席了这轮热潮。为了刺激需求，苹果今年1月在其网上商店推出了罕见的优惠活动。上一财年，苹果的收入下降了3%，创下了自2016年以来的最大收入跌幅。这意味着，苹果营收在过去六个季度中有五个季度出现下滑。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>北京时间3月7日，苹果公司曾是科技界无可争议的王者，如今却在许多业务领域腹背受敌。</p><p>苹果产品在中国的需求正在降温，该公司的“摇钱树”应用商店正受到欧洲监管机构的抨击。<strong>它刚刚扼杀了一个汽车项目，该项目曾被视为苹果的“下一款爆品”。</strong></p><p>在此过程中，苹果的市值也受到了冲击。在去年达到创纪录的3万亿美元之后，苹果市值在最近几周又蒸发了数千亿美元。现在，亦敌亦友的微软公司已经取代苹果，成为全球市值最高的科技公司。</p><p><strong>苹果到底遇到了哪些问题呢？以下是该公司面临的十大挑战：</strong></p><p><strong>1、美司法部的反垄断诉讼</strong></p><p>美国司法部对于苹果的反垄断诉讼已经酝酿了五年，现在距离正式起诉已经越来越近。美司法部反垄断部门认为，苹果对iPhone和iPad施加了软件和硬件限制，使得对手更难参与竞争。知情人士说，这起诉讼预计将在3月底前提起。但是，最近的一项联邦支出协议将限制反垄断部门的可用资金，可能会影响美司法部提起诉讼的时机。今年2月，苹果代表还与美司法部进行了最后一次会面，试图说服该机构不要继续提起诉讼。</p><p><strong>2、欧盟新法规</strong></p><p>欧盟的《数字市场法案》已在本周生效，它是苹果封闭式“围墙花园”面临的一个新威胁。苹果的生态鼓励硬件用户购买其他苹果产品和服务，但是这种模式正在遭到数字市场法案》的限制。现在，苹果用户首次可以从App Store以外渠道下载应用，也就是“侧载”。用户还可以使用苹果以外的替代支付系统，更容易地选择新的默认浏览器，这两项都是开发者和监管机构诟病已久的老问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/734bd353e6a60fcd61cd6206b68fd4dd\" alt=\"iPhone依旧是苹果的赚钱机器\" title=\"iPhone依旧是苹果的赚钱机器\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"572\"/><span>iPhone依旧是苹果的赚钱机器</span></p><p>虽然苹果不情不愿地开放了自家生态，但同时又增加了其他费用，这招致了开发者的批评。<strong>对苹果来说，更大的危险是，这种每年创造数百亿美元收入的商业模式可能会分崩离析。</strong>但是如果苹果不遵守欧盟法规，那么它就可能被处罚。本周，欧盟对苹果开出18亿欧元(约合20亿美元)的罚单，原因是它阻止Spotify等其他流媒体服务告知用户除App Store之外的其他支付选择。</p><p><strong>3、AI落后</strong></p><p>自从ChatGPT在2022年引爆生成式人工智能(AI)市场以来，科技巨头们都在竞相推出自己的生成式AI功能。<strong>但是，苹果明确缺席了这轮热潮。这让外界担心该公司在一个至关重要的新领域落后了。</strong>虽然苹果向投资者保证，AI早已融入其软件和服务中，但很明显，苹果需要引起更大的轰动，今年6月份的全球开发者大会是个好机会。在上个月的股东大会上，<strong>苹果CEO蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)誓言今年要在AI领域“开辟新局”。</strong>“我们相信，这将为我们的用户释放变革性机遇。”他当时表示。</p><p><strong>4、中国市场遇冷</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f79fe4e255e26621df00bfc5bfcf74b\" title=\"大中华区收入占比走势\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"490\"/><span>大中华区收入占比走势</span></p><p>几个月来，苹果一直在应对中国市场的销售滑坡，但是收益甚微。研究公司Counterpoint Research的数据显示，<strong>今年前六周，iPhone在中国的销量惊人地下降了24%。虽然整体手机市场的销量也在下滑，但苹果现在比其本土竞争对手下滑得更快。</strong>Counterpoint的数据显示，vivo已成为中国领先的手机供应商。为了刺激需求，苹果今年1月在其网上商店推出了罕见的优惠活动。中国本土经销商也在下调iPhone的价格，最高达到180美元(约合1300元人民币)。</p><p><strong>5、苹果汽车夭折</strong></p><p>上周，<strong>当苹果停止造车的消息首次传出时，投资者欢呼雀跃。毕竟，这意味着该公司不再将数以十亿美元计的资金花在一个希望渺茫的项目上。</strong>不过，汽车项目的关闭最终让苹果失去了一款可以赚钱的重磅产品。尽管制造一辆电动汽车很困难，但是苹果本可以把这款产品卖到10万美元。虽然苹果的利润率可能会非常低，但它可以利用汽车提振收入。上一财年，苹果的收入下降了3%，创下了自2016年以来的最大收入跌幅。放弃汽车也引发了人们的担忧，那就是苹果是在保守行事，而不是无畏地开拓新领域。</p><p><strong>6、Vision Pro依旧是小众产品</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa1e30e205365e436268c8945e03cd61\" title=\"Vision Pro\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"719\"/><span>Vision Pro</span></p><p>2024年，苹果确实进入了一个新的产品类别，那就是混合现实市场，也就是苹果所称的“空间计算”。Vision Pro头显在2月2日上市，评测者和早期采用者都对它赞不绝口。但是，它的售价高达3500美元(约合2.5万元人民币)，看不出有什么明显用途。它太重了，不能长时间佩戴，许多软件开发商都推迟了为它开发专用应用的计划。苹果现在的挑战是让Vision Pro变得更轻、更便宜，让它更接近普通消费者可能购买的东西。<strong>但是，这一过程需要数年时间。</strong></p><p><strong>7、平板电脑失宠</strong></p><p><strong>在iPad迅速走红十多年后，许多消费者已经不再喜欢平板电脑了。</strong>研究公司IDC的数据显示，去年平板电脑的整体销量降至2011年以来的最低水平。当然，这不仅是苹果的问题，但苹果是平板电脑的主要销售商，其出货量约占平板电脑总出货量的40%。一些消费者已经转用更大尺寸的手机，或者干脆重新使用笔记本电脑。苹果也没能提振平板电脑市场，在过去一年里没有发布一款新iPad机型。自从2010年史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)发布iPad以来，苹果新机型从未如此稀有过。</p><p><strong>8、智能手表侵权案</strong></p><p>由于与医疗设备制造商Masimo存在专利侵权纠纷，苹果最近不得不罕见地停止销售带有血氧传感器的手表。这些手表是苹果可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门的核心产品，该部门去年为苹果贡献了逾10%的营收，接近400亿美元。虽然苹果能够去除存在纠纷的功能，让手表重新上市，但<strong>对于一家很少遭受这种情况的公司来说，这是一个令人尴尬的法律挫折。</strong>血氧功能的丧失也可能阻碍苹果在未来为这款手表添加功能，比如测量高血压和睡眠呼吸暂停的功能。</p><p><strong>9、人才流失</strong></p><p>对于苹果来说，高管的更替是常有的事，而且该公司拥有一支实力雄厚的备用管理人员队伍。但近几个月来，苹果失去了一些最杰出的领导者，尤其是在设计团队中，包括在苹果任职时间最长的高级工业设计师巴特·安德烈(Bart Andre)，他也是苹果专利的最大持有者之一。顶尖设计师科林·伯恩斯(Colin Burns)、肖塔·奥亚基(Shota Aoyagi)和彼得·拉塞尔-克拉克(Peter Russell-Clarke)也在去年年底离职。经过多年的高管离职后，这支曾经由传奇人物乔尼·艾维(Jony Ive)领导的设计师团队几乎完全消失了，该团队协助定义了苹果美学。</p><p><strong>10、难看的财报</strong></p><p>在这样的背景下，苹果的下一季度财报对投资者来说将是一颗难以下咽的苦果。苹果已经警告说，与去年同期相比，新一季财报的数据不会很好看。<strong>分析师预计，截至本月的第二财季(日历年第一季度)，苹果营收将同比下降大约4%。</strong>这意味着，苹果营收在过去六个季度中有五个季度出现下滑。</p><p><strong>“在我们看来，苹果股价正处于十字路口。”</strong>罗森布拉特证券分析师巴顿·克罗克特(Barton Crockett)本周在一份研报中表示。他指出，失败的汽车项目和尚未成熟的Vision Pro使得苹果的光彩黯然失色。</p><p>克罗克特表示，现在的问题是，苹果是否能够借助进军生成式AI扳回一盘，“苹果拥有重新让人刮目相看的潜力”。</p></body></html>","source":"ifeng_tech","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>细数苹果业务的“十大痛点”，中国市场辉煌不再了？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n细数苹果业务的“十大痛点”，中国市场辉煌不再了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-03-07 13:37 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8XkiJ4MKUSO><strong>凤凰网科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>北京时间3月7日，苹果公司曾是科技界无可争议的王者，如今却在许多业务领域腹背受敌。苹果产品在中国的需求正在降温，该公司的“摇钱树”应用商店正受到欧洲监管机构的抨击。它刚刚扼杀了一个汽车项目，该项目曾被视为苹果的“下一款爆品”。在此过程中，苹果的市值也受到了冲击。在去年达到创纪录的3万亿美元之后，苹果市值在最近几周又蒸发了数千亿美元。现在，亦敌亦友的微软公司已经取代苹果，成为全球市值最高的科技公司。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8XkiJ4MKUSO\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c79d9ba94a347164a5cd3ec1bac06488","relate_stocks":{"LU0320765059.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin US Opportunities A Acc SGD","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","IE00B1BXHZ80.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - US Appreciation A Acc USD","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFSS8Q28.SGD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc SGD-H","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4592":"伊斯兰概念","IE0009356076.USD":"JANUS HENDERSON GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION \"A2\" (USD) ACC","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","IE00B7KXQ091.USD":"Janus Henderson Balanced A Inc USD","LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BLSP4239.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis USD Plus","IE00BLSP4452.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Tactical Dividend Income A Mdis SGD-H 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\"A(USD) ACC","IE00BKDWB100.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5H\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","BK4573":"虚拟现实","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0353189763.USD":"ALLSPRING  US ALL CAP GROWTH FUND \"I\" (USD) ACC","IE00BZ1G4Q59.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE US EQUITY SUSTAINABILITY LEADER \"A\"(USD) INC (A)","BK4581":"高盛持仓","IE00BWXC8680.SGD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A5\" (SGD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://tech.ifeng.com/c/8XkiJ4MKUSO","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2417727425","content_text":"北京时间3月7日，苹果公司曾是科技界无可争议的王者，如今却在许多业务领域腹背受敌。苹果产品在中国的需求正在降温，该公司的“摇钱树”应用商店正受到欧洲监管机构的抨击。它刚刚扼杀了一个汽车项目，该项目曾被视为苹果的“下一款爆品”。在此过程中，苹果的市值也受到了冲击。在去年达到创纪录的3万亿美元之后，苹果市值在最近几周又蒸发了数千亿美元。现在，亦敌亦友的微软公司已经取代苹果，成为全球市值最高的科技公司。苹果到底遇到了哪些问题呢？以下是该公司面临的十大挑战：1、美司法部的反垄断诉讼美国司法部对于苹果的反垄断诉讼已经酝酿了五年，现在距离正式起诉已经越来越近。美司法部反垄断部门认为，苹果对iPhone和iPad施加了软件和硬件限制，使得对手更难参与竞争。知情人士说，这起诉讼预计将在3月底前提起。但是，最近的一项联邦支出协议将限制反垄断部门的可用资金，可能会影响美司法部提起诉讼的时机。今年2月，苹果代表还与美司法部进行了最后一次会面，试图说服该机构不要继续提起诉讼。2、欧盟新法规欧盟的《数字市场法案》已在本周生效，它是苹果封闭式“围墙花园”面临的一个新威胁。苹果的生态鼓励硬件用户购买其他苹果产品和服务，但是这种模式正在遭到数字市场法案》的限制。现在，苹果用户首次可以从App Store以外渠道下载应用，也就是“侧载”。用户还可以使用苹果以外的替代支付系统，更容易地选择新的默认浏览器，这两项都是开发者和监管机构诟病已久的老问题。iPhone依旧是苹果的赚钱机器虽然苹果不情不愿地开放了自家生态，但同时又增加了其他费用，这招致了开发者的批评。对苹果来说，更大的危险是，这种每年创造数百亿美元收入的商业模式可能会分崩离析。但是如果苹果不遵守欧盟法规，那么它就可能被处罚。本周，欧盟对苹果开出18亿欧元(约合20亿美元)的罚单，原因是它阻止Spotify等其他流媒体服务告知用户除App Store之外的其他支付选择。3、AI落后自从ChatGPT在2022年引爆生成式人工智能(AI)市场以来，科技巨头们都在竞相推出自己的生成式AI功能。但是，苹果明确缺席了这轮热潮。这让外界担心该公司在一个至关重要的新领域落后了。虽然苹果向投资者保证，AI早已融入其软件和服务中，但很明显，苹果需要引起更大的轰动，今年6月份的全球开发者大会是个好机会。在上个月的股东大会上，苹果CEO蒂姆·库克(Tim Cook)誓言今年要在AI领域“开辟新局”。“我们相信，这将为我们的用户释放变革性机遇。”他当时表示。4、中国市场遇冷大中华区收入占比走势几个月来，苹果一直在应对中国市场的销售滑坡，但是收益甚微。研究公司Counterpoint Research的数据显示，今年前六周，iPhone在中国的销量惊人地下降了24%。虽然整体手机市场的销量也在下滑，但苹果现在比其本土竞争对手下滑得更快。Counterpoint的数据显示，vivo已成为中国领先的手机供应商。为了刺激需求，苹果今年1月在其网上商店推出了罕见的优惠活动。中国本土经销商也在下调iPhone的价格，最高达到180美元(约合1300元人民币)。5、苹果汽车夭折上周，当苹果停止造车的消息首次传出时，投资者欢呼雀跃。毕竟，这意味着该公司不再将数以十亿美元计的资金花在一个希望渺茫的项目上。不过，汽车项目的关闭最终让苹果失去了一款可以赚钱的重磅产品。尽管制造一辆电动汽车很困难，但是苹果本可以把这款产品卖到10万美元。虽然苹果的利润率可能会非常低，但它可以利用汽车提振收入。上一财年，苹果的收入下降了3%，创下了自2016年以来的最大收入跌幅。放弃汽车也引发了人们的担忧，那就是苹果是在保守行事，而不是无畏地开拓新领域。6、Vision Pro依旧是小众产品Vision Pro2024年，苹果确实进入了一个新的产品类别，那就是混合现实市场，也就是苹果所称的“空间计算”。Vision Pro头显在2月2日上市，评测者和早期采用者都对它赞不绝口。但是，它的售价高达3500美元(约合2.5万元人民币)，看不出有什么明显用途。它太重了，不能长时间佩戴，许多软件开发商都推迟了为它开发专用应用的计划。苹果现在的挑战是让Vision Pro变得更轻、更便宜，让它更接近普通消费者可能购买的东西。但是，这一过程需要数年时间。7、平板电脑失宠在iPad迅速走红十多年后，许多消费者已经不再喜欢平板电脑了。研究公司IDC的数据显示，去年平板电脑的整体销量降至2011年以来的最低水平。当然，这不仅是苹果的问题，但苹果是平板电脑的主要销售商，其出货量约占平板电脑总出货量的40%。一些消费者已经转用更大尺寸的手机，或者干脆重新使用笔记本电脑。苹果也没能提振平板电脑市场，在过去一年里没有发布一款新iPad机型。自从2010年史蒂夫·乔布斯(Steve Jobs)发布iPad以来，苹果新机型从未如此稀有过。8、智能手表侵权案由于与医疗设备制造商Masimo存在专利侵权纠纷，苹果最近不得不罕见地停止销售带有血氧传感器的手表。这些手表是苹果可穿戴设备、家居和配件部门的核心产品，该部门去年为苹果贡献了逾10%的营收，接近400亿美元。虽然苹果能够去除存在纠纷的功能，让手表重新上市，但对于一家很少遭受这种情况的公司来说，这是一个令人尴尬的法律挫折。血氧功能的丧失也可能阻碍苹果在未来为这款手表添加功能，比如测量高血压和睡眠呼吸暂停的功能。9、人才流失对于苹果来说，高管的更替是常有的事，而且该公司拥有一支实力雄厚的备用管理人员队伍。但近几个月来，苹果失去了一些最杰出的领导者，尤其是在设计团队中，包括在苹果任职时间最长的高级工业设计师巴特·安德烈(Bart Andre)，他也是苹果专利的最大持有者之一。顶尖设计师科林·伯恩斯(Colin Burns)、肖塔·奥亚基(Shota Aoyagi)和彼得·拉塞尔-克拉克(Peter Russell-Clarke)也在去年年底离职。经过多年的高管离职后，这支曾经由传奇人物乔尼·艾维(Jony Ive)领导的设计师团队几乎完全消失了，该团队协助定义了苹果美学。10、难看的财报在这样的背景下，苹果的下一季度财报对投资者来说将是一颗难以下咽的苦果。苹果已经警告说，与去年同期相比，新一季财报的数据不会很好看。分析师预计，截至本月的第二财季(日历年第一季度)，苹果营收将同比下降大约4%。这意味着，苹果营收在过去六个季度中有五个季度出现下滑。“在我们看来，苹果股价正处于十字路口。”罗森布拉特证券分析师巴顿·克罗克特(Barton Crockett)本周在一份研报中表示。他指出，失败的汽车项目和尚未成熟的Vision Pro使得苹果的光彩黯然失色。克罗克特表示，现在的问题是，苹果是否能够借助进军生成式AI扳回一盘，“苹果拥有重新让人刮目相看的潜力”。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":331068136251472,"gmtCreate":1721833922991,"gmtModify":1721833925267,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532334328381517","idStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我也是这么认为的，短期不参与就是了，长期还是看好","listText":"我也是这么认为的，短期不参与就是了，长期还是看好","text":"我也是这么认为的，短期不参与就是了，长期还是看好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/331068136251472","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":817,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":267161115853064,"gmtCreate":1706234426624,"gmtModify":1706234458267,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532334328381517","idStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"字真多还看不懂","listText":"字真多还看不懂","text":"字真多还看不懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/267161115853064","repostId":"1140258203","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1140258203","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1706228995,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1140258203?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-26 08:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"重磅！美联储，突然宣布！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1140258203","media":"券商中国","summary":"美联储最新出手。其中，美联储理事沃勒表示，目前没有理由迅速采取行动或快速降息。美联储突然宣布当地时间1月24日，美联储宣布，从即日起，上调银行定期融资计划利率，上调后的BTFP利率，将“不低于”贷款发放当日有效的准备金余额利率。在美联储宣布调整后，BTFP利率将至少上调逾50个基点。美联储补充称，其他计划条款并没有改变。值得一提的是，美联储还宣布，这项临时性工具将按原定计划于3月11日结束，停止再发放新贷款。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美联储最新出手。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间1月24日，美联储宣布，从即日起，上调银行定期融资计划(BTFP)利率，上调后的BTFP利率，将“不低于”贷款发放当日有效的准备金余额利率。此次调整后，BTFP利率将至少上调逾50个基点。BTFP是在2023年硅谷银行爆雷期间美联储紧急推出的，其允许银行以美国国债和机构债券抵押借入资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>当前，全球市场最关心的无疑是，美联储何时开启降息周期？近日，多位美联储官员在噤声期前夕，回击了市场对美联储今年降息多达150个基点的预期，有意给市场降温。其中，美联储理事沃勒表示，目前没有理由迅速采取行动或快速降息。根据CME美联储观察工具，目前市场预计美联储3月份降息的概率已从一个月前的80%降至约40%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，美国最新发布的GDP数据也为美联储何时降息提供依据。北京时间1月25日晚间，美国商务部发布的数据显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长3.3%，增幅较上季度的4.9%放缓，但远超出市场预期的2%。美国2023年全年经济增长2.5%，2022年为1.9%。分析人士认为，GDP超预期向好或将使美联储进一步延迟降息。</p><p><strong>美联储突然宣布</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间1月24日，美联储宣布，从即日起，上调银行定期融资计划(BTFP)利率，上调后的BTFP利率，将“不低于”贷款发放当日有效的准备金余额利率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f9fc71018c5322b9048106bbde993a2\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"595\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要介绍的是，美联储的银行定期融资计划，是在2023年硅谷银行爆雷引发区域银行危机期间紧急推出的，其允许银行和信用合作社以美国国债和机构债券按面值抵押，借入期限不超过一年的资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储宣布上调利率之前，BTFP利率为一年期隔夜指数掉期利率(OIS)+10个基点。按周三报价，当天的BTFP利率约为4.88%。而相比之下，目前将现金存入美联储的账户利率为5.40%——其通常与美联储的基准联邦基金利率目标同步变动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着，金融机构通过BTFP计划拆入资金，然后放在准备金余额中，便可享受50多个基点的无风险套利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储宣布调整后，BTFP利率将至少上调逾50个基点。这意味着，套利空间彻底消失。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储在声明中表示，对银行定期融资计划的利率进行调整，是为了确保在当前利率环境下继续支持该计划的目标。美联储补充称，其他计划条款并没有改变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，美联储还宣布，这项临时性工具将按原定计划于3月11日结束，停止再发放新贷款。2024年1月早些时候，美联储高层官员曾透露，该计划在3月11日截止日期之后将不再延长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储在新闻稿中称，在2023年春季的紧张时期，银行定期融资计划帮助确保了银行系统的稳定，并为经济提供了支持。2024年3月11日之后，银行和其他存款机构将可以利用贴现窗口来满足流动性需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，自美联储推出银行定期融资计划以来，关于银行利用该工具进行套利的质疑声便一直不断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对银行来说，BTFP利率越低，套利机会越大，机构可以从该工具中借款，然后将资金存入在美联储的账户，轻轻松松赚取与准备金利率间的利差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据机构显示，截至1月17日的一周内，银行利用贴现窗口的资金已仅为23亿美元，远低于去年3月创下的1530亿美元的历史最高水平。相比之下，据美联储的数据显示，截至1月17日的一周内，从银行定期融资计划借入的资金规模已达到创纪录的1620亿美元（约合人民币11600亿元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而在银行定期融资计划推出之前，美联储一直将贴现窗口作为满足银行流动性需求的长期方案。</p><p><strong>何时开启降息？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全球市场最关心的无疑是，美联储何时开启降息周期？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前市场一致预计，美国联邦公开市场委员会将于1月30日—31日的首场货币政策会议上，连续第四次维持利率不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场真正的焦点是，美联储今年3月的议息会议及之后会议的利率走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近日，多位美联储官员在噤声期前夕，回击了市场对美联储今年降息多达150个基点的预期，有意给市场降温。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，美联储理事沃勒表示，随着经济活动和劳动力市场状况良好，通胀率逐步回落至2%，目前没有理由迅速采取行动或快速降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他的这番言论，促使投资者显著降低了对3月降息的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，眼下最糟糕的结果其实是，美联储决策者降低了利率，但通胀却在此后走高，他们不得不再次提高利率。他指出，“我们不希望出现这种上上下下或反反复复的模式。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前美联储工作人员、经济学家Claudia Sahm认为，这种想法确实可能会促使联储将首次降息推迟到5月份。她表示，但一旦央行开始行动，可能会很快展开。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，历史也证明，美联储如今在启动降息时应会保持谨慎。20世纪70年代，美联储在通胀真正消退之前就过早地放松了政策。即使是被誉为美联储历史上最伟大主席之一的保罗·沃尔克，也曾在1980年经济疲软时犯过这样的错误。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据彭博社报道，美国高盛集团全球交易策略部主管乔舒亚·希夫林日前预测，美国联邦储备委员会今年可能会降息４次；美国通货膨胀率将回落至美联储既定的２％目标。</p><p><strong>美国最新发布</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">北京时间1月25日晚间，美国商务部发布的数据显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长3.3%，增幅较上季度的4.9%放缓，但远超出市场预期的2%。美国2023年全年经济增长2.5%，2022年为1.9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，个人消费支出环比增长了2.8%，是美国经济增长的主要动力，商业投资和住房也助推了经济超预期增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，发布的季度通胀数据PCE指数未再降温，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比上涨2.8%，较前值3.1%有所放缓，但超过预期的2.5%；不含食品和能源的核心PCE价格指数年化季环比增长2%，与前值和预期值一致。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析人士认为，GDP超预期向好或将使美联储进一步延迟降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示，GDP数据告诉我们，美国经济将以强劲的增长进入新的一年，这是软着陆的好兆头。总的来说，这是一份好报告，但它可能会促使美联储至少在2024年第三季度或第四季度之前保持利率稳定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，据CME“美联储观察”的数据显示，GDP数据公布后，美联储2月维持利率在5.25%—5.50%区间不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%。到3月维持利率不变的概率为58.4%。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>重磅！美联储，突然宣布！</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n重磅！美联储，突然宣布！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-01-26 08:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美联储最新出手。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间1月24日，美联储宣布，从即日起，上调银行定期融资计划(BTFP)利率，上调后的BTFP利率，将“不低于”贷款发放当日有效的准备金余额利率。此次调整后，BTFP利率将至少上调逾50个基点。BTFP是在2023年硅谷银行爆雷期间美联储紧急推出的，其允许银行以美国国债和机构债券抵押借入资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>当前，全球市场最关心的无疑是，美联储何时开启降息周期？近日，多位美联储官员在噤声期前夕，回击了市场对美联储今年降息多达150个基点的预期，有意给市场降温。其中，美联储理事沃勒表示，目前没有理由迅速采取行动或快速降息。根据CME美联储观察工具，目前市场预计美联储3月份降息的概率已从一个月前的80%降至约40%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，美国最新发布的GDP数据也为美联储何时降息提供依据。北京时间1月25日晚间，美国商务部发布的数据显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长3.3%，增幅较上季度的4.9%放缓，但远超出市场预期的2%。美国2023年全年经济增长2.5%，2022年为1.9%。分析人士认为，GDP超预期向好或将使美联储进一步延迟降息。</p><p><strong>美联储突然宣布</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当地时间1月24日，美联储宣布，从即日起，上调银行定期融资计划(BTFP)利率，上调后的BTFP利率，将“不低于”贷款发放当日有效的准备金余额利率。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f9fc71018c5322b9048106bbde993a2\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"830\" tg-height=\"595\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">需要介绍的是，美联储的银行定期融资计划，是在2023年硅谷银行爆雷引发区域银行危机期间紧急推出的，其允许银行和信用合作社以美国国债和机构债券按面值抵押，借入期限不超过一年的资金。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储宣布上调利率之前，BTFP利率为一年期隔夜指数掉期利率(OIS)+10个基点。按周三报价，当天的BTFP利率约为4.88%。而相比之下，目前将现金存入美联储的账户利率为5.40%——其通常与美联储的基准联邦基金利率目标同步变动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这意味着，金融机构通过BTFP计划拆入资金，然后放在准备金余额中，便可享受50多个基点的无风险套利。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在美联储宣布调整后，BTFP利率将至少上调逾50个基点。这意味着，套利空间彻底消失。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储在声明中表示，对银行定期融资计划的利率进行调整，是为了确保在当前利率环境下继续支持该计划的目标。美联储补充称，其他计划条款并没有改变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得一提的是，美联储还宣布，这项临时性工具将按原定计划于3月11日结束，停止再发放新贷款。2024年1月早些时候，美联储高层官员曾透露，该计划在3月11日截止日期之后将不再延长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美联储在新闻稿中称，在2023年春季的紧张时期，银行定期融资计划帮助确保了银行系统的稳定，并为经济提供了支持。2024年3月11日之后，银行和其他存款机构将可以利用贴现窗口来满足流动性需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，自美联储推出银行定期融资计划以来，关于银行利用该工具进行套利的质疑声便一直不断。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对银行来说，BTFP利率越低，套利机会越大，机构可以从该工具中借款，然后将资金存入在美联储的账户，轻轻松松赚取与准备金利率间的利差。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据机构显示，截至1月17日的一周内，银行利用贴现窗口的资金已仅为23亿美元，远低于去年3月创下的1530亿美元的历史最高水平。相比之下，据美联储的数据显示，截至1月17日的一周内，从银行定期融资计划借入的资金规模已达到创纪录的1620亿美元（约合人民币11600亿元）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">而在银行定期融资计划推出之前，美联储一直将贴现窗口作为满足银行流动性需求的长期方案。</p><p><strong>何时开启降息？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全球市场最关心的无疑是，美联储何时开启降息周期？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前市场一致预计，美国联邦公开市场委员会将于1月30日—31日的首场货币政策会议上，连续第四次维持利率不变。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">市场真正的焦点是，美联储今年3月的议息会议及之后会议的利率走向。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">近日，多位美联储官员在噤声期前夕，回击了市场对美联储今年降息多达150个基点的预期，有意给市场降温。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，美联储理事沃勒表示，随着经济活动和劳动力市场状况良好，通胀率逐步回落至2%，目前没有理由迅速采取行动或快速降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">他的这番言论，促使投资者显著降低了对3月降息的预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，眼下最糟糕的结果其实是，美联储决策者降低了利率，但通胀却在此后走高，他们不得不再次提高利率。他指出，“我们不希望出现这种上上下下或反反复复的模式。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">前美联储工作人员、经济学家Claudia Sahm认为，这种想法确实可能会促使联储将首次降息推迟到5月份。她表示，但一旦央行开始行动，可能会很快展开。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">事实上，历史也证明，美联储如今在启动降息时应会保持谨慎。20世纪70年代，美联储在通胀真正消退之前就过早地放松了政策。即使是被誉为美联储历史上最伟大主席之一的保罗·沃尔克，也曾在1980年经济疲软时犯过这样的错误。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据彭博社报道，美国高盛集团全球交易策略部主管乔舒亚·希夫林日前预测，美国联邦储备委员会今年可能会降息４次；美国通货膨胀率将回落至美联储既定的２％目标。</p><p><strong>美国最新发布</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">北京时间1月25日晚间，美国商务部发布的数据显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长3.3%，增幅较上季度的4.9%放缓，但远超出市场预期的2%。美国2023年全年经济增长2.5%，2022年为1.9%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，个人消费支出环比增长了2.8%，是美国经济增长的主要动力，商业投资和住房也助推了经济超预期增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">同时，发布的季度通胀数据PCE指数未再降温，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比上涨2.8%，较前值3.1%有所放缓，但超过预期的2.5%；不含食品和能源的核心PCE价格指数年化季环比增长2%，与前值和预期值一致。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析人士认为，GDP超预期向好或将使美联储进一步延迟降息。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示，GDP数据告诉我们，美国经济将以强劲的增长进入新的一年，这是软着陆的好兆头。总的来说，这是一份好报告，但它可能会促使美联储至少在2024年第三季度或第四季度之前保持利率稳定。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另外，据CME“美联储观察”的数据显示，GDP数据公布后，美联储2月维持利率在5.25%—5.50%区间不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%。到3月维持利率不变的概率为58.4%。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/575cab11fa7bf4a68989f023cf458a1d","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1140258203","content_text":"美联储最新出手。当地时间1月24日，美联储宣布，从即日起，上调银行定期融资计划(BTFP)利率，上调后的BTFP利率，将“不低于”贷款发放当日有效的准备金余额利率。此次调整后，BTFP利率将至少上调逾50个基点。BTFP是在2023年硅谷银行爆雷期间美联储紧急推出的，其允许银行以美国国债和机构债券抵押借入资金。当前，全球市场最关心的无疑是，美联储何时开启降息周期？近日，多位美联储官员在噤声期前夕，回击了市场对美联储今年降息多达150个基点的预期，有意给市场降温。其中，美联储理事沃勒表示，目前没有理由迅速采取行动或快速降息。根据CME美联储观察工具，目前市场预计美联储3月份降息的概率已从一个月前的80%降至约40%。另外，美国最新发布的GDP数据也为美联储何时降息提供依据。北京时间1月25日晚间，美国商务部发布的数据显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长3.3%，增幅较上季度的4.9%放缓，但远超出市场预期的2%。美国2023年全年经济增长2.5%，2022年为1.9%。分析人士认为，GDP超预期向好或将使美联储进一步延迟降息。美联储突然宣布当地时间1月24日，美联储宣布，从即日起，上调银行定期融资计划(BTFP)利率，上调后的BTFP利率，将“不低于”贷款发放当日有效的准备金余额利率。需要介绍的是，美联储的银行定期融资计划，是在2023年硅谷银行爆雷引发区域银行危机期间紧急推出的，其允许银行和信用合作社以美国国债和机构债券按面值抵押，借入期限不超过一年的资金。在美联储宣布上调利率之前，BTFP利率为一年期隔夜指数掉期利率(OIS)+10个基点。按周三报价，当天的BTFP利率约为4.88%。而相比之下，目前将现金存入美联储的账户利率为5.40%——其通常与美联储的基准联邦基金利率目标同步变动。这意味着，金融机构通过BTFP计划拆入资金，然后放在准备金余额中，便可享受50多个基点的无风险套利。在美联储宣布调整后，BTFP利率将至少上调逾50个基点。这意味着，套利空间彻底消失。美联储在声明中表示，对银行定期融资计划的利率进行调整，是为了确保在当前利率环境下继续支持该计划的目标。美联储补充称，其他计划条款并没有改变。值得一提的是，美联储还宣布，这项临时性工具将按原定计划于3月11日结束，停止再发放新贷款。2024年1月早些时候，美联储高层官员曾透露，该计划在3月11日截止日期之后将不再延长。美联储在新闻稿中称，在2023年春季的紧张时期，银行定期融资计划帮助确保了银行系统的稳定，并为经济提供了支持。2024年3月11日之后，银行和其他存款机构将可以利用贴现窗口来满足流动性需求。事实上，自美联储推出银行定期融资计划以来，关于银行利用该工具进行套利的质疑声便一直不断。对银行来说，BTFP利率越低，套利机会越大，机构可以从该工具中借款，然后将资金存入在美联储的账户，轻轻松松赚取与准备金利率间的利差。据机构显示，截至1月17日的一周内，银行利用贴现窗口的资金已仅为23亿美元，远低于去年3月创下的1530亿美元的历史最高水平。相比之下，据美联储的数据显示，截至1月17日的一周内，从银行定期融资计划借入的资金规模已达到创纪录的1620亿美元（约合人民币11600亿元）。而在银行定期融资计划推出之前，美联储一直将贴现窗口作为满足银行流动性需求的长期方案。何时开启降息？全球市场最关心的无疑是，美联储何时开启降息周期？目前市场一致预计，美国联邦公开市场委员会将于1月30日—31日的首场货币政策会议上，连续第四次维持利率不变。市场真正的焦点是，美联储今年3月的议息会议及之后会议的利率走向。近日，多位美联储官员在噤声期前夕，回击了市场对美联储今年降息多达150个基点的预期，有意给市场降温。其中，美联储理事沃勒表示，随着经济活动和劳动力市场状况良好，通胀率逐步回落至2%，目前没有理由迅速采取行动或快速降息。他的这番言论，促使投资者显著降低了对3月降息的预期。另外，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，眼下最糟糕的结果其实是，美联储决策者降低了利率，但通胀却在此后走高，他们不得不再次提高利率。他指出，“我们不希望出现这种上上下下或反反复复的模式。”前美联储工作人员、经济学家Claudia Sahm认为，这种想法确实可能会促使联储将首次降息推迟到5月份。她表示，但一旦央行开始行动，可能会很快展开。事实上，历史也证明，美联储如今在启动降息时应会保持谨慎。20世纪70年代，美联储在通胀真正消退之前就过早地放松了政策。即使是被誉为美联储历史上最伟大主席之一的保罗·沃尔克，也曾在1980年经济疲软时犯过这样的错误。据彭博社报道，美国高盛集团全球交易策略部主管乔舒亚·希夫林日前预测，美国联邦储备委员会今年可能会降息４次；美国通货膨胀率将回落至美联储既定的２％目标。美国最新发布北京时间1月25日晚间，美国商务部发布的数据显示，美国第四季度实际GDP年化季环比初值按年增长3.3%，增幅较上季度的4.9%放缓，但远超出市场预期的2%。美国2023年全年经济增长2.5%，2022年为1.9%。其中，个人消费支出环比增长了2.8%，是美国经济增长的主要动力，商业投资和住房也助推了经济超预期增长。同时，发布的季度通胀数据PCE指数未再降温，个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比上涨2.8%，较前值3.1%有所放缓，但超过预期的2.5%；不含食品和能源的核心PCE价格指数年化季环比增长2%，与前值和预期值一致。分析人士认为，GDP超预期向好或将使美联储进一步延迟降息。斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示，GDP数据告诉我们，美国经济将以强劲的增长进入新的一年，这是软着陆的好兆头。总的来说，这是一份好报告，但它可能会促使美联储至少在2024年第三季度或第四季度之前保持利率稳定。另外，据CME“美联储观察”的数据显示，GDP数据公布后，美联储2月维持利率在5.25%—5.50%区间不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%。到3月维持利率不变的概率为58.4%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358404234805336,"gmtCreate":1728519831305,"gmtModify":1728519834606,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532334328381517","idStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"如果你猜的那么准那你应该在10年前就梭哈美股了吧，或者说你应该早就财务自由了，怎么还有心情来发帖子","listText":"如果你猜的那么准那你应该在10年前就梭哈美股了吧，或者说你应该早就财务自由了，怎么还有心情来发帖子","text":"如果你猜的那么准那你应该在10年前就梭哈美股了吧，或者说你应该早就财务自由了，怎么还有心情来发帖子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358404234805336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334134906449968,"gmtCreate":1722608948867,"gmtModify":1722608952576,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532334328381517","idStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 特尔啊，是你凭一己之力带走美股的嘛？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 特尔啊，是你凭一己之力带走美股的嘛？","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 特尔啊，是你凭一己之力带走美股的嘛？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334134906449968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":449,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":334044917723408,"gmtCreate":1722586926579,"gmtModify":1722586927812,"author":{"id":"3532334328381517","authorId":"3532334328381517","name":"小清水","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/becfda40ab0abdc71c99dfcb2a0dedb9","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3532334328381517","idStr":"3532334328381517"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NQmain\">$NQ100指数主连 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