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锐文哥

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2022-05-25

$布朗鞋业(CAL)$冲啊，全力冲刺

2022-05-09

$沃尔玛(WMT)$拉高出了

2022-03-17

$沃尔玛(WMT)$大头都走了，剩下一地鸡毛

2021-03-25

说明都是拉高出货

连续尾盘跳水，美股发生了什么？

2021-01-19

$Sorrento Therapeutics Inc.(SRNE)$又要起飞了

2020-09-21

$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$抄底了

2020-09-15

$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$抄底啦

2020-09-14

$Workhorse Group, Inc.(WKHS)$准备升啦

2020-07-27

乱世黄金，大家都懂

站上1940美元！刷新历史记录！黄金还能涨吗？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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10:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"连续尾盘跳水，美股发生了什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2122916704","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"　　本周周三，美国三大股指尾盘集体跳水，连续第二日出现集体收跌的情况。　　最终，纳指收跌2.01%，创3月8日以来收盘新低；标普收跌0.55%，道指收跌3.09点，跌幅0.01%，均连续第二日创3月10日以来新低。　　不过有迹象显示，连续两天的尾盘跳水可能跟养老金抛售有关系。　　为了证明尾盘抛售的力度有多大，文章援引了一份来自Sentiment Trader的观察报告。　　此外，美国银行也给出了类似的结论，警告季末再平衡的规模可能很大。","content":"<p>本周周三，美国三大股指尾盘集体跳水，连续第二日出现集体收跌的情况。</p>\n<p>最终，纳指收跌2.01%，创3月8日以来收盘新低；标普收跌0.55%，道指收跌3.09点，跌幅0.01%，均连续第二日创3月10日以来新低。</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3c7f72233b24939ce2afa1c5e271f41\" tg-width=\"904\" tg-height=\"517\"><span>图片来源：wind</span></p>\n<p>正如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>每日市场情报的作者Andrew Tyler写道的那样，这是市场连续第二天在午后出现实质性抛售，收盘接近低点。他认为，市场的焦点仍围绕利率和因子轮动。</p>\n<p>不过有迹象显示，连续两天的尾盘跳水可能跟养老金抛售有关系。</p>\n<p>金融博客ZeroHedge认为，月末会出现一场史诗级的拉锯战，对战的双方是抛售股票的养老金以及买入股票的定量分析师/交易商。目前的局势看起来，抛售占据了主导地位，尽管只是在交易日的最后一小时。</p>\n<p>为了证明尾盘抛售的力度有多大，文章援引了一份来自Sentiment Trader的观察报告。这份报告表示，过去3个月里，有29天股市在最后一小时交易中下跌。</p>\n<p>为了使这一观察更可视化，Sentiment Trader给出了图表，累积最后一小时指标（the Cumulative the Last Hour Indicator）创下1997年以来最大3个月跌幅，而与此同时标普指数仍然在走高。</p>\n<p>文章担心，上一次看到类似的背离还是在新冠危机爆发的时候，只有随后标普指数的暴跌才扭转了“聪明资金”抛售的趋势．</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b36ffa4278ed17367eef2f821c90731\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>事实上，对于季末养老金抛售，摩根大通对此在两周前已经有所预告。该行预测，季度末股票市场会出现一些脆弱性，原因是养老金实体和平衡型共同基金出售股票、购买债券，以调整其股票/债券的目标配置。</p>\n<p>此外，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>也给出了类似的结论，警告季末再平衡的规模可能很大。该行预测，从股票流向固定收益的再平衡资金总额将达到885亿美元。</p>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>连续尾盘跳水，美股发生了什么？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n连续尾盘跳水，美股发生了什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-25 10:01 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-25/doc-ikknscsk1146159.shtml><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本周周三，美国三大股指尾盘集体跳水，连续第二日出现集体收跌的情况。\n最终，纳指收跌2.01%，创3月8日以来收盘新低；标普收跌0.55%，道指收跌3.09点，跌幅0.01%，均连续第二日创3月10日以来新低。\n图片来源：wind\n正如摩根大通每日市场情报的作者Andrew Tyler写道的那样，这是市场连续第二天在午后出现实质性抛售，收盘接近低点。他认为，市场的焦点仍围绕利率和因子轮动。\n不过有...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-25/doc-ikknscsk1146159.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c318bcd91a109139b7d70c76c30bb154","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-03-25/doc-ikknscsk1146159.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2122916704","content_text":"本周周三，美国三大股指尾盘集体跳水，连续第二日出现集体收跌的情况。\n最终，纳指收跌2.01%，创3月8日以来收盘新低；标普收跌0.55%，道指收跌3.09点，跌幅0.01%，均连续第二日创3月10日以来新低。\n图片来源：wind\n正如摩根大通每日市场情报的作者Andrew Tyler写道的那样，这是市场连续第二天在午后出现实质性抛售，收盘接近低点。他认为，市场的焦点仍围绕利率和因子轮动。\n不过有迹象显示，连续两天的尾盘跳水可能跟养老金抛售有关系。\n金融博客ZeroHedge认为，月末会出现一场史诗级的拉锯战，对战的双方是抛售股票的养老金以及买入股票的定量分析师/交易商。目前的局势看起来，抛售占据了主导地位，尽管只是在交易日的最后一小时。\n为了证明尾盘抛售的力度有多大，文章援引了一份来自Sentiment Trader的观察报告。这份报告表示，过去3个月里，有29天股市在最后一小时交易中下跌。\n为了使这一观察更可视化，Sentiment Trader给出了图表，累积最后一小时指标（the Cumulative the Last Hour Indicator）创下1997年以来最大3个月跌幅，而与此同时标普指数仍然在走高。\n文章担心，上一次看到类似的背离还是在新冠危机爆发的时候，只有随后标普指数的暴跌才扭转了“聪明资金”抛售的趋势．\n\n事实上，对于季末养老金抛售，摩根大通对此在两周前已经有所预告。该行预测，季度末股票市场会出现一些脆弱性，原因是养老金实体和平衡型共同基金出售股票、购买债券，以调整其股票/债券的目标配置。\n此外，美国银行也给出了类似的结论，警告季末再平衡的规模可能很大。该行预测，从股票流向固定收益的再平衡资金总额将达到885亿美元。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":864,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":337392702,"gmtCreate":1611066528106,"gmtModify":1703747769188,"author":{"id":"3531347519291822","authorId":"3531347519291822","name":"锐文哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRNE\">$Sorrento Therapeutics Inc.(SRNE)$</a>又要起飞了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SRNE\">$Sorrento Therapeutics Inc.(SRNE)$</a>又要起飞了","text":"$Sorrento Therapeutics Inc.(SRNE)$又要起飞了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/337392702","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1272,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3513300756470178","authorId":"3513300756470178","name":"Scott0902","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13fc67a12975eb244bc0eb66558bdf45","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"会不会又一地鸡毛？","text":"会不会又一地鸡毛？","html":"会不会又一地鸡毛？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975293577,"gmtCreate":1600699434999,"gmtModify":1703822183878,"author":{"id":"3531347519291822","authorId":"3531347519291822","name":"锐文哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVA\">$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$</a>抄底了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVA\">$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$</a>抄底了","text":"$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$抄底了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975293577","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972815322,"gmtCreate":1600177958466,"gmtModify":1703820606177,"author":{"id":"3531347519291822","authorId":"3531347519291822","name":"锐文哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVA\">$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$</a>抄底啦","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SAVA\">$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$</a>抄底啦","text":"$Cassava Sciences Inc(SAVA)$抄底啦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972815322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972393174,"gmtCreate":1600093377498,"gmtModify":1703820301123,"author":{"id":"3531347519291822","authorId":"3531347519291822","name":"锐文哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">$Workhorse Group, Inc.(WKHS)$</a>准备升啦","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">$Workhorse Group, Inc.(WKHS)$</a>准备升啦","text":"$Workhorse Group, Inc.(WKHS)$准备升啦","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/972393174","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":946232828,"gmtCreate":1595861662864,"gmtModify":1704210086391,"author":{"id":"3531347519291822","authorId":"3531347519291822","name":"锐文哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"乱世黄金，大家都懂","listText":"乱世黄金，大家都懂","text":"乱世黄金，大家都懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/946232828","repostId":"1176806069","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176806069","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1595829448,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1176806069?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-27 13:57","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"站上1940美元！刷新历史记录！黄金还能涨吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176806069","media":"格隆汇","summary":"一睁眼，黄金又又又创了新高！\n7月27日，国际金价突破1940美元/盎司关口，最高触及1944.48美元/盎司，刷新历史高位（2011年的历史最高点1921.15美元），目前站稳1930美元的关口。\n","content":"<p>一睁眼，黄金又又又创了新高！</p>\n<p>7月27日，<b>国际金价突破1940美元/盎司关口，最高触及1944.48美元/盎司，刷新历史高位</b>（2011年的历史最高点1921.15美元），目前站稳1930美元的关口。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2015beddcddb67add0acad0bb37812a\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"318\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，自今年3月16日低点1451.13美元上涨至今，伦敦金现价格已累涨超过32%。</p>\n<p>而受此利好影响，今日港A两市黄金板块也飘红不断。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5c0c51196b3f5045b6a734ba7a05c06\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"239\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>近期的金价如同一匹脱了缰黑的黑马一路高歌，直行向前，而究<b>其大涨的原因，还是在于不变的核心因素——避险情绪的攀升</b>。</p>\n<p>在疫情二次爆发的阴影之下，为刺激经济回暖，全球宽松性释放充裕空间，债券收益率不断走低，美元频频承压，叠加近期中美地缘政治摩擦，<b>市场避险情绪激增，黄金为首的避险资产得到上行空间，迎来一定的价值回归</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “我把黄金形容为火山，火山目前来讲已经到了喷发期。”——中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>避险情绪升温不断</b></p>\n<p><b>1、疫情二次爆发引发疑虑</b></p>\n<p>首先，新冠疫情的反复继续使得市场风险情绪承压，进而利于黄金这一典型的避险资产获得“上位”机遇。</p>\n<p>毕竟疫情的突发使得全球经济陷入较为颓靡的困境之中，尤其是随着疫情不断反复，确诊人数的增加使得重启经济计划不断搁浅，市场对秋冬季疫情“卷土重来”的担忧加重，进而使得<b>投资信心趋于保守理性，为后期经济发展前景埋下不确定的风险种子</b>。</p>\n<p>2020年IMF世界经济增速预测</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9217b25b99f6f27269a783c7a07c95c4\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"359\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：民生证券</p>\n<p>根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的最新数据，目前全球累计确诊超过1630万例，累计死亡超过64万例，其中，美国依旧是疫情最为严重的国家，目前累计确诊超过436万例，累计死亡逼近15万例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a28707343e05436a33cc3a422dd70f\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"1141\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：微博</p>\n<blockquote>\n “为避免美国经济陷入“双谷衰退”，美国至少还需要1.5万亿美元的刺激资金，比现在很多国会议员预期的要多出数千亿美元。”——穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi\n</blockquote>\n<p>而为缓解疫情对经济的打击，<b>美国或在近期实施新一轮超过1万亿美元的财政刺激计划</b>（第一轮2万亿美元的疫情刺激措施已于5月签署成为法律），进一步释放货币宽松性。</p>\n<p><b>而美联储新一轮的刺激计划或将继续对美元施压</b>，使其贬值，进而使得市场投资者对股市产生担忧，投入以美元定价的商品的怀抱。</p>\n<p><b>2、美元指数承压不断</b></p>\n<p><b>显然，美元作为全球主要储备货币的地位正在不断受到冲击</b>，而基于黄金价格走势与美元指数走势呈现负相关，或进一步支撑金价。</p>\n<p>具体来看，由于美国疫情的爆发反复，经济重启计划被迫叫停，难以顺利运行，再加上美国量化宽松政策和零利率政策的实施影响，<b>美国经济面临的不确定性增大，美元弱势周期开启，看空情绪或将继续增强。</b></p>\n<p>尤其是近期欧盟27个国家就7500亿欧元(约8570亿美元)的经济复苏计划达成共识，<b>欧元走强预期较为强烈，进一步或加剧美元结构性走软，释出卖出美元的信号，</b></p>\n<p><b>间接为金价带来上升动能。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n “这个复苏基金通过提供高流动性、高评级、以欧元计价的债券，将促进储备资产脱离美元的多元化。”——G10外汇策略主管Valentin Marinov\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前，<b>美元指数已连续第五周下跌</b>，现处于低位震荡区间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db2b6d39977c7d11520f4b546c8971b\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"306\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p><b>3、地缘政治摩擦引起警惕</b></p>\n<p>此外，基于近期中美关系有所摩擦，局势具有一定的严峻性，或将继续引发股市产生一定的巨震，进而带动避险情绪的进一步升温。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “正值经济需要在新冠危机持续的情况下重建之时，全球贸易受到了新的和此前实施的进口限制打击。”——世界贸易组织\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>金价走高是否见顶？</b></p>\n<p>基于上述，在全球形势不确定性加剧的情形之中，作为对冲价格上涨和货币贬值的工具，黄金的走势易涨难跌，或继续创出新高，<b>在中长期内或具备一定的避险投资价值</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “金价上周的上涨步伐令人难以置信，对于黄金，人们只想买买买，不想错过它这么强劲的走势。”——RJO Futures的市场策略师Bob Haberkorn\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>这也就是为什么各大投行继续看好金价的原因。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n 瑞银预计金价将于今年9月攀升至2000美元；花旗集团预期金价有30％的可能性在未来3~5个月内突破2000美元；高盛认为未来12个月金价可能攀升至创纪录的2000美元/盎司；美国银行甚至将未来18个月的金价目标上调至3000美元/盎司...\n</blockquote>\n<p>同时，随着人们对疫情打击下的经济走势的不安加剧，预期市场在未来一段长时间内维持低利率和货币贬值，便开始马不停蹄加码以金银为首的硬资产的购买，一方面则体现在了ETF这一被动资金的持续流入上。</p>\n<p>根据世界黄金协会数据显示，<b>2020年上半年全球黄金ETF（以吨数计）总规模达到3621吨，同比增长25%，刷新历史新高；</b>且截至6月，全球黄金ETF已连续7个月出现净流入，创下历史纪录。其中，今年5月，资金流入黄金ETF的总额为337亿美元，刷新2016年创下的历史最高纪录（240亿美元）。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “截止7月21日，全球最大的黄金ETF-SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量1219.75吨，较上一交易日增加7.89吨，逼近1220吨，续刷逾7年高位...今年上半年黄金投资增加了11.6吨，其中，我国黄金ETF总资产管理规模达到创纪录的32亿美元。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>2020年以来黄金ETF增量</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e546cdbfde9a3ccd8e26341a117db2\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"453\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：民生证券</p>\n<p>此外，根据Kitco News对16位华尔街专业人士进行的黄金周度调查，其中，有11名分析师(69%)预计金价本周将上涨; 只有1位分析师(6%)预计金价会下降;且4名分析师(25%)预计金价继续横盘震荡。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27eb6258504fe7b5583519481b1cc9a7\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"473\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Kitco</p>\n<p>然而，事物都有两面，盛极必衰的例子也很常见。而<b>随着金价突破历史高位，其波动性有较大的不确定性。</b></p>\n<p>毕竟<b>作为具有周期性波动的大宗资产，金价见顶之后大概率存在技术性回调风险</b>，而这时对于盲目追高买入黄金ETF等被动型投资产品的市场投资者是较为危险的。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “对于近期黄金表现，我有点看跌...由于我们最近触及这些高点，市场应该进行一次调整。这是获利了结的好机会。而涨势如此强劲和迅速，黄金的底部可能低至1800美元或更低。我们还没有时间进行整合。”-Gainesville Coins贵金属专家Everett Millman\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>众所周知，<b>金价在一定程度上是反映全球经济发展走势的晴雨表。</b></p>\n<p>基于疫情黑天鹅效应未散，在宽松性政策刺激加码预期以及地缘政治因素的影响之下，黄金这类风险资产或将得到底气支撑，市场上持有“买买买”呼声的投资者不断增加也是可以预见的。</p>\n<p>而随着本周美联储7月利率决议、鲍威尔发表讲话、美国第二季度GDP初值释出（市场普遍预期将下跌35%）等一系列关键事件的发生，这将会对金价后期走势带来重要影响，<b>市场避险情绪是得到安抚还是继续被激化，依旧具有一定的不确定性，投资者还需要保持理性谨慎的态度</b>。</p>\n<p>但可以确定的是，<b>全球经济的不确定性或继续支撑下半年的黄金走势以及相关投资，但短期价格见顶也或会带来一定的回调压力。</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>站上1940美元！刷新历史记录！黄金还能涨吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n站上1940美元！刷新历史记录！黄金还能涨吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-07-27 13:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>一睁眼，黄金又又又创了新高！</p>\n<p>7月27日，<b>国际金价突破1940美元/盎司关口，最高触及1944.48美元/盎司，刷新历史高位</b>（2011年的历史最高点1921.15美元），目前站稳1930美元的关口。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b2015beddcddb67add0acad0bb37812a\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"318\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，自今年3月16日低点1451.13美元上涨至今，伦敦金现价格已累涨超过32%。</p>\n<p>而受此利好影响，今日港A两市黄金板块也飘红不断。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a5c0c51196b3f5045b6a734ba7a05c06\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"239\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p>近期的金价如同一匹脱了缰黑的黑马一路高歌，直行向前，而究<b>其大涨的原因，还是在于不变的核心因素——避险情绪的攀升</b>。</p>\n<p>在疫情二次爆发的阴影之下，为刺激经济回暖，全球宽松性释放充裕空间，债券收益率不断走低，美元频频承压，叠加近期中美地缘政治摩擦，<b>市场避险情绪激增，黄金为首的避险资产得到上行空间，迎来一定的价值回归</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “我把黄金形容为火山，火山目前来讲已经到了喷发期。”——中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>避险情绪升温不断</b></p>\n<p><b>1、疫情二次爆发引发疑虑</b></p>\n<p>首先，新冠疫情的反复继续使得市场风险情绪承压，进而利于黄金这一典型的避险资产获得“上位”机遇。</p>\n<p>毕竟疫情的突发使得全球经济陷入较为颓靡的困境之中，尤其是随着疫情不断反复，确诊人数的增加使得重启经济计划不断搁浅，市场对秋冬季疫情“卷土重来”的担忧加重，进而使得<b>投资信心趋于保守理性，为后期经济发展前景埋下不确定的风险种子</b>。</p>\n<p>2020年IMF世界经济增速预测</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9217b25b99f6f27269a783c7a07c95c4\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"359\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：民生证券</p>\n<p>根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的最新数据，目前全球累计确诊超过1630万例，累计死亡超过64万例，其中，美国依旧是疫情最为严重的国家，目前累计确诊超过436万例，累计死亡逼近15万例。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a28707343e05436a33cc3a422dd70f\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"1141\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：微博</p>\n<blockquote>\n “为避免美国经济陷入“双谷衰退”，美国至少还需要1.5万亿美元的刺激资金，比现在很多国会议员预期的要多出数千亿美元。”——穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi\n</blockquote>\n<p>而为缓解疫情对经济的打击，<b>美国或在近期实施新一轮超过1万亿美元的财政刺激计划</b>（第一轮2万亿美元的疫情刺激措施已于5月签署成为法律），进一步释放货币宽松性。</p>\n<p><b>而美联储新一轮的刺激计划或将继续对美元施压</b>，使其贬值，进而使得市场投资者对股市产生担忧，投入以美元定价的商品的怀抱。</p>\n<p><b>2、美元指数承压不断</b></p>\n<p><b>显然，美元作为全球主要储备货币的地位正在不断受到冲击</b>，而基于黄金价格走势与美元指数走势呈现负相关，或进一步支撑金价。</p>\n<p>具体来看，由于美国疫情的爆发反复，经济重启计划被迫叫停，难以顺利运行，再加上美国量化宽松政策和零利率政策的实施影响，<b>美国经济面临的不确定性增大，美元弱势周期开启，看空情绪或将继续增强。</b></p>\n<p>尤其是近期欧盟27个国家就7500亿欧元(约8570亿美元)的经济复苏计划达成共识，<b>欧元走强预期较为强烈，进一步或加剧美元结构性走软，释出卖出美元的信号，</b></p>\n<p><b>间接为金价带来上升动能。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n “这个复苏基金通过提供高流动性、高评级、以欧元计价的债券，将促进储备资产脱离美元的多元化。”——G10外汇策略主管Valentin Marinov\n</blockquote>\n<p>目前，<b>美元指数已连续第五周下跌</b>，现处于低位震荡区间。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1db2b6d39977c7d11520f4b546c8971b\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"306\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Wind</p>\n<p><b>3、地缘政治摩擦引起警惕</b></p>\n<p>此外，基于近期中美关系有所摩擦，局势具有一定的严峻性，或将继续引发股市产生一定的巨震，进而带动避险情绪的进一步升温。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “正值经济需要在新冠危机持续的情况下重建之时，全球贸易受到了新的和此前实施的进口限制打击。”——世界贸易组织\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>金价走高是否见顶？</b></p>\n<p>基于上述，在全球形势不确定性加剧的情形之中，作为对冲价格上涨和货币贬值的工具，黄金的走势易涨难跌，或继续创出新高，<b>在中长期内或具备一定的避险投资价值</b>。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “金价上周的上涨步伐令人难以置信，对于黄金，人们只想买买买，不想错过它这么强劲的走势。”——RJO Futures的市场策略师Bob Haberkorn\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>这也就是为什么各大投行继续看好金价的原因。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n 瑞银预计金价将于今年9月攀升至2000美元；花旗集团预期金价有30％的可能性在未来3~5个月内突破2000美元；高盛认为未来12个月金价可能攀升至创纪录的2000美元/盎司；美国银行甚至将未来18个月的金价目标上调至3000美元/盎司...\n</blockquote>\n<p>同时，随着人们对疫情打击下的经济走势的不安加剧，预期市场在未来一段长时间内维持低利率和货币贬值，便开始马不停蹄加码以金银为首的硬资产的购买，一方面则体现在了ETF这一被动资金的持续流入上。</p>\n<p>根据世界黄金协会数据显示，<b>2020年上半年全球黄金ETF（以吨数计）总规模达到3621吨，同比增长25%，刷新历史新高；</b>且截至6月，全球黄金ETF已连续7个月出现净流入，创下历史纪录。其中，今年5月，资金流入黄金ETF的总额为337亿美元，刷新2016年创下的历史最高纪录（240亿美元）。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “截止7月21日，全球最大的黄金ETF-SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量1219.75吨，较上一交易日增加7.89吨，逼近1220吨，续刷逾7年高位...今年上半年黄金投资增加了11.6吨，其中，我国黄金ETF总资产管理规模达到创纪录的32亿美元。”——公开数据\n</blockquote>\n<p>2020年以来黄金ETF增量</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7e546cdbfde9a3ccd8e26341a117db2\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"453\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：民生证券</p>\n<p>此外，根据Kitco News对16位华尔街专业人士进行的黄金周度调查，其中，有11名分析师(69%)预计金价本周将上涨; 只有1位分析师(6%)预计金价会下降;且4名分析师(25%)预计金价继续横盘震荡。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27eb6258504fe7b5583519481b1cc9a7\" tg-width=\"693\" tg-height=\"473\"></p>\n<p>数据来源：Kitco</p>\n<p>然而，事物都有两面，盛极必衰的例子也很常见。而<b>随着金价突破历史高位，其波动性有较大的不确定性。</b></p>\n<p>毕竟<b>作为具有周期性波动的大宗资产，金价见顶之后大概率存在技术性回调风险</b>，而这时对于盲目追高买入黄金ETF等被动型投资产品的市场投资者是较为危险的。</p>\n<blockquote>\n “对于近期黄金表现，我有点看跌...由于我们最近触及这些高点，市场应该进行一次调整。这是获利了结的好机会。而涨势如此强劲和迅速，黄金的底部可能低至1800美元或更低。我们还没有时间进行整合。”-Gainesville Coins贵金属专家Everett Millman\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>结语</b></p>\n<p>众所周知，<b>金价在一定程度上是反映全球经济发展走势的晴雨表。</b></p>\n<p>基于疫情黑天鹅效应未散，在宽松性政策刺激加码预期以及地缘政治因素的影响之下，黄金这类风险资产或将得到底气支撑，市场上持有“买买买”呼声的投资者不断增加也是可以预见的。</p>\n<p>而随着本周美联储7月利率决议、鲍威尔发表讲话、美国第二季度GDP初值释出（市场普遍预期将下跌35%）等一系列关键事件的发生，这将会对金价后期走势带来重要影响，<b>市场避险情绪是得到安抚还是继续被激化，依旧具有一定的不确定性，投资者还需要保持理性谨慎的态度</b>。</p>\n<p>但可以确定的是，<b>全球经济的不确定性或继续支撑下半年的黄金走势以及相关投资，但短期价格见顶也或会带来一定的回调压力。</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4be30a3c11bd91e9d1f864c6a098fab1","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176806069","content_text":"一睁眼，黄金又又又创了新高！\n7月27日，国际金价突破1940美元/盎司关口，最高触及1944.48美元/盎司，刷新历史高位（2011年的历史最高点1921.15美元），目前站稳1930美元的关口。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n值得注意的是，自今年3月16日低点1451.13美元上涨至今，伦敦金现价格已累涨超过32%。\n而受此利好影响，今日港A两市黄金板块也飘红不断。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n近期的金价如同一匹脱了缰黑的黑马一路高歌，直行向前，而究其大涨的原因，还是在于不变的核心因素——避险情绪的攀升。\n在疫情二次爆发的阴影之下，为刺激经济回暖，全球宽松性释放充裕空间，债券收益率不断走低，美元频频承压，叠加近期中美地缘政治摩擦，市场避险情绪激增，黄金为首的避险资产得到上行空间，迎来一定的价值回归。\n\n “我把黄金形容为火山，火山目前来讲已经到了喷发期。”——中泰证券首席经济学家李迅雷\n\n避险情绪升温不断\n1、疫情二次爆发引发疑虑\n首先，新冠疫情的反复继续使得市场风险情绪承压，进而利于黄金这一典型的避险资产获得“上位”机遇。\n毕竟疫情的突发使得全球经济陷入较为颓靡的困境之中，尤其是随着疫情不断反复，确诊人数的增加使得重启经济计划不断搁浅，市场对秋冬季疫情“卷土重来”的担忧加重，进而使得投资信心趋于保守理性，为后期经济发展前景埋下不确定的风险种子。\n2020年IMF世界经济增速预测\n\n数据来源：民生证券\n根据美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学发布的最新数据，目前全球累计确诊超过1630万例，累计死亡超过64万例，其中，美国依旧是疫情最为严重的国家，目前累计确诊超过436万例，累计死亡逼近15万例。\n\n数据来源：微博\n\n “为避免美国经济陷入“双谷衰退”，美国至少还需要1.5万亿美元的刺激资金，比现在很多国会议员预期的要多出数千亿美元。”——穆迪首席经济学家Mark Zandi\n\n而为缓解疫情对经济的打击，美国或在近期实施新一轮超过1万亿美元的财政刺激计划（第一轮2万亿美元的疫情刺激措施已于5月签署成为法律），进一步释放货币宽松性。\n而美联储新一轮的刺激计划或将继续对美元施压，使其贬值，进而使得市场投资者对股市产生担忧，投入以美元定价的商品的怀抱。\n2、美元指数承压不断\n显然，美元作为全球主要储备货币的地位正在不断受到冲击，而基于黄金价格走势与美元指数走势呈现负相关，或进一步支撑金价。\n具体来看，由于美国疫情的爆发反复，经济重启计划被迫叫停，难以顺利运行，再加上美国量化宽松政策和零利率政策的实施影响，美国经济面临的不确定性增大，美元弱势周期开启，看空情绪或将继续增强。\n尤其是近期欧盟27个国家就7500亿欧元(约8570亿美元)的经济复苏计划达成共识，欧元走强预期较为强烈，进一步或加剧美元结构性走软，释出卖出美元的信号，\n间接为金价带来上升动能。\n\n “这个复苏基金通过提供高流动性、高评级、以欧元计价的债券，将促进储备资产脱离美元的多元化。”——G10外汇策略主管Valentin Marinov\n\n目前，美元指数已连续第五周下跌，现处于低位震荡区间。\n\n数据来源：Wind\n3、地缘政治摩擦引起警惕\n此外，基于近期中美关系有所摩擦，局势具有一定的严峻性，或将继续引发股市产生一定的巨震，进而带动避险情绪的进一步升温。\n\n “正值经济需要在新冠危机持续的情况下重建之时，全球贸易受到了新的和此前实施的进口限制打击。”——世界贸易组织\n\n金价走高是否见顶？\n基于上述，在全球形势不确定性加剧的情形之中，作为对冲价格上涨和货币贬值的工具，黄金的走势易涨难跌，或继续创出新高，在中长期内或具备一定的避险投资价值。\n\n “金价上周的上涨步伐令人难以置信，对于黄金，人们只想买买买，不想错过它这么强劲的走势。”——RJO Futures的市场策略师Bob Haberkorn\n\n这也就是为什么各大投行继续看好金价的原因。\n\n 瑞银预计金价将于今年9月攀升至2000美元；花旗集团预期金价有30％的可能性在未来3~5个月内突破2000美元；高盛认为未来12个月金价可能攀升至创纪录的2000美元/盎司；美国银行甚至将未来18个月的金价目标上调至3000美元/盎司...\n\n同时，随着人们对疫情打击下的经济走势的不安加剧，预期市场在未来一段长时间内维持低利率和货币贬值，便开始马不停蹄加码以金银为首的硬资产的购买，一方面则体现在了ETF这一被动资金的持续流入上。\n根据世界黄金协会数据显示，2020年上半年全球黄金ETF（以吨数计）总规模达到3621吨，同比增长25%，刷新历史新高；且截至6月，全球黄金ETF已连续7个月出现净流入，创下历史纪录。其中，今年5月，资金流入黄金ETF的总额为337亿美元，刷新2016年创下的历史最高纪录（240亿美元）。\n\n “截止7月21日，全球最大的黄金ETF-SPDR Gold Trust的黄金持仓量1219.75吨，较上一交易日增加7.89吨，逼近1220吨，续刷逾7年高位...今年上半年黄金投资增加了11.6吨，其中，我国黄金ETF总资产管理规模达到创纪录的32亿美元。”——公开数据\n\n2020年以来黄金ETF增量\n\n数据来源：民生证券\n此外，根据Kitco News对16位华尔街专业人士进行的黄金周度调查，其中，有11名分析师(69%)预计金价本周将上涨; 只有1位分析师(6%)预计金价会下降;且4名分析师(25%)预计金价继续横盘震荡。\n\n数据来源：Kitco\n然而，事物都有两面，盛极必衰的例子也很常见。而随着金价突破历史高位，其波动性有较大的不确定性。\n毕竟作为具有周期性波动的大宗资产，金价见顶之后大概率存在技术性回调风险，而这时对于盲目追高买入黄金ETF等被动型投资产品的市场投资者是较为危险的。\n\n “对于近期黄金表现，我有点看跌...由于我们最近触及这些高点，市场应该进行一次调整。这是获利了结的好机会。而涨势如此强劲和迅速，黄金的底部可能低至1800美元或更低。我们还没有时间进行整合。”-Gainesville Coins贵金属专家Everett Millman\n\n结语\n众所周知，金价在一定程度上是反映全球经济发展走势的晴雨表。\n基于疫情黑天鹅效应未散，在宽松性政策刺激加码预期以及地缘政治因素的影响之下，黄金这类风险资产或将得到底气支撑，市场上持有“买买买”呼声的投资者不断增加也是可以预见的。\n而随着本周美联储7月利率决议、鲍威尔发表讲话、美国第二季度GDP初值释出（市场普遍预期将下跌35%）等一系列关键事件的发生，这将会对金价后期走势带来重要影响，市场避险情绪是得到安抚还是继续被激化，依旧具有一定的不确定性，投资者还需要保持理性谨慎的态度。\n但可以确定的是，全球经济的不确定性或继续支撑下半年的黄金走势以及相关投资，但短期价格见顶也或会带来一定的回调压力。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":912,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题，可以获得更多曝光哦～如果您想创作优质文章，请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":337392702,"gmtCreate":1611066528106,"gmtModify":1703747769188,"author":{"id":"3531347519291822","authorId":"3531347519291822","name":"锐文哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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