merlinsheng的个人主页 - 老虎社区

merlinsheng

旷野的鸟

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54关注

2粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2020-11-16

$蔚来(NIO)$都不靠谱啊，台积电最稳啊

2020-10-29

调查研究是多么重要

从不相信到重仓：景林究竟发现了拼多多什么秘密？

2020-10-22

$晶科能源(JKS)$凉凉

2020-09-23

$晶科能源(JKS)$[捂脸]

2020-09-02

$Zoom(ZM)$做多还是做空

2020-09-01

$Zoom(ZM)$做空亏成狗啊

2020-08-20

$唯品会(VIPS)$起飞了🛫️

2020-08-03

$安德玛公司A类股(UAA)$沙滩你好👋

2020-06-19

$拼多多(PDD)$护城河到底在哪里？

2020-06-18

$拼多多(PDD)$平仓n次了，市场做空了4000万股还涨那么高，真的怀疑人生了。老老实实工作多好。

2020-06-17

$拼多多(PDD)$跪地求饶

2020-06-05

$拼多多(PDD)$跌倒50呀，尼玛整天涨，真是被你从O发N了

2020-06-04

$美光科技(MU)$坚挺

2020-06-03

$拼多多(PDD)$不知如何是好了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a>都不靠谱啊，台积电最稳啊","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$都不靠谱啊，台积电最稳啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/307639696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":308264600,"gmtCreate":1603987175900,"gmtModify":1703831580417,"author":{"id":"3530270210164154","authorId":"3530270210164154","name":"merlinsheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530270210164154","authorIdStr":"3530270210164154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"调查研究是多么重要","listText":"调查研究是多么重要","text":"调查研究是多么重要","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/308264600","repostId":"1192597688","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192597688","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1603972224,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1192597688?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-10-29 19:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"从不相信到重仓：景林究竟发现了拼多多什么秘密？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192597688","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"景林资产背后的投资方法论。","content":"<p>周四，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>高开高走，盘初一路上攻，截至发稿，涨幅超5%，股价逼近历史高点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16a8d5d86b4c1ba17b147b9513ca8f3d\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\"></p><p>回顾2018年7月，新电商拼多多登陆纳斯达克，上市首日，市值达到300亿美元，鲜花与争议纷至沓来。</p><p>因为拼多多平台的“便宜”超出了部分精英的想象，有关拼多多的质疑声在上市前后达到了顶峰。有的投资人被争议吓退，有的投资人则认为拼多多毫无价值。</p><p>两年后，管理着1000亿以上规模的资金、中国最大的私募基金景林资产在重仓拼多多之后，再度刷新私募行业的收益回报纪录。拼多多也成为了景林资产在持有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>等企业之后，又一个重仓的新企业。</p><p>为何景林资产能够在2018年果断重仓拼多多？近日，一篇媒体专访报道揭露了景林资产背后的投资方法论。</p><p>与外界对拼多多“看不懂所以看衰”的状态不同，在拼多多上市后，仅有30多人的景林资产先后派出了15路调研团队，沿着三条铁路干线，分别奔赴攀枝花、延安和惠州等15个不同省份的内地城市调研拼多多的核心消费者，以及前往义乌、武汉和广州等地走访平台商家和产业人士。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca362cfe572cb90e2b82decd0cb6d92\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p><i>▲2018年7月，成立仅三年的拼多多登陆纳斯达克，首日市值就达到了300亿美元。</i></p><p>出发之前，景林资产总结了当时五环内投资圈对于拼多多普遍的质疑点，并归纳为“五大假设”，涉及到拼多多的模式优劣、低价策略、用户决策、未来发展等方方面面，但无一例外，这些假设都是负面和质疑。</p><p>为期两周的调研，景林资产形成了上百万字的调研纪要，最终彻底撕碎了舆论偏见中的“五大假设”。拼模式的新电商在中国市场有着极强的生命力和忠诚度，而中国消费者的消费力和消费观念也突破了他们的想象。</p><p>看到了基本面的景林资产最终选择在当年的四季度开始投资拼多多并逐渐重仓，据2020年Q2景林提交美国SEC的报表显示，景林所有产品持有拼多多的仓位金额已高达5.2亿美元。按照拼多多市值的增长速度，景林资产的投资账面回报率达到了数倍以上。</p><p>尽管关于拼多多的15座城市调研已经过去两年，但回头去看，景林资产调研前提出并在调研中一一否定的“五大假设”，至今对互联网行业仍有借鉴和思考意义。</p><p>以下根据相关的公开报道采访和其他行业资料进行了整理。</p><p><i><b>假设1：用户因为低价才选择拼多多，尽管能忍受低品质，但满意度的绝对值是不足的。</b></i></p><p><i><b>真相：中国制造业供给端的充盈，确实能够创造15块钱的高品质牛仔裤，而拼多多通过需求侧的改革，创造了高性价比的线上模式。</b></i></p><p>低价就意味着低品质？事实上，这是典型的精英偏见。</p><p>在河南商丘，景林的分析师采访了一位月薪2600元的文员小妹。她每天在没有暖气的办公室里打字，手指冻得受不了，她就想买一件羽绒服，但天猫上太贵，就上拼多多花了两三百块买了件充绒量不算最多、但足够保暖的羽绒服。</p><p>景林资产分析认为，消费者的需求不应该用价格来衡量。很显然，文员小妹花费了尽可能少的钱但同样满足了自己保暖的基本需求。这样的需求真实存在，但很难被五环内写字楼里吹暖气的白领轻易理解。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7eb9c58bc792668c2263ca8792cfb6d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\"></p><p>因此，消费者对于“同比价格更低”的需求并不意味着普通消费者享受低品质、低满意度，而更多追求的是商品功能价值，追求商品的性价比。</p><p>而认定“低价等于低质”，背后是对中国制造产业链和中国零售行业的误解。一方面，经过数十年积累的中国制造产业带，早就拥有了把商品做到低价高质的能力，“中国制造业供给端的充盈，确实能够创造15块钱的牛仔裤”。</p><p>另一方面，拼多多的模式则是在拼单模式下驱动供应链变革，相当于是在线上创造了一个巨大的需求端，使得商家可以在用户的海量需求之中去想办法稳定生产、降低成本，从而最大化把工厂的产能进行改革，用来为消费者生产高性价比的商品，例如15块钱的牛仔裤。</p><p>举例来说，传统的工厂因为没有掌握需求端的信息，因此，极有可能盲目采取“高定价”策略，将10块钱的牛仔裤卖到100块钱，导致商品与消费者的真实付款意愿不匹配，造成货物积压，资金链断裂。</p><p>而拼多多聚拢了一大批消费者，拼团模式使得工厂提前接触到了“15块钱牛仔裤”的购买需求，工厂只需要调整生产线为消费者生产更具性价比的商品，就成功转化交易。这样的转化效率，使得拼多多逐渐驱动供应链向性价比的方向变革。</p><p>从零售行业发展史来看，高价从来都不是什么竞争优势，恰恰相反，性价比才是新商业模式的起点。</p><p>以国外零售企业的发展来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>的崛起关键在于一直坚持“天天平价”，而Costco的发展则是靠着会员体系来倒逼品牌商实现性价比。</p><p>拼多多通过“打掉中间补两头”的方式，同样帮助消费者实现了低价优质的性价比体验。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76477bf21aad0f4e11e0c3a3b3dffb04\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\"></p><p><i>▲山东高密的孚日家纺，曾给爱马仕、无印良品、宜家等知名品牌代工。现如今通过跟拼多多等新电商的合作，一条优质毛巾的价格仅为十元左右。</i></p><p><i><b>假设2：有关拼多多的负面新闻会对用户产生负面影响，影响购买决策。</b></i></p><p><i><b>真相：在体验过拼多多的用户中，95%的消费者并不在意外界舆论，在货比三家后依然选择拼多多。</b></i></p><p>拼多多上市前后曾遭遇空前的质疑声。因为处在激烈的竞争压力之下，因此，拼多多遭遇了互联网史上最大规模的黑公关。在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>、知乎等各大社区论坛上，充斥着专业营销号创作的抹黑性段子内容，尽管拼多多花了一年时间不断辟谣，但负面影响已经造成。</p><p>这也造成了很多并没有真实用过拼多多的用户和投资人，张口就判定拼多多是假货平台，并因此对平台产生了唱衰的判断。</p><p>但景林在调研中发现，真实的拼多多用户对于外界舆论中的负面新闻颇为宽容：95%的用户都不在意外界舆论，依然会在拼多多平台继续购物。</p><p>在真实的用户购买和社会情绪之间或许存在巨大的反差：没有用过拼多多的人受竞争对手的公关战影响，坚持认为拼多多是假货平台，而真实体验过拼多多的用户，则有超过95%选择了相信拼多多。</p><p>为何会出现舆论与用户真实选择之间的分裂？</p><p>景林调研认为，消费者宽容的原因，是拼多多的购物体验。</p><p>一方面，拼多多退货非常方便，如果消费者有不满意，可以立即退货，因此，就算偶尔买到不满意的商品，用户也可以便捷退货，保证了消费者的购物体验。</p><p>另一方面，和熟人拼团等模式，使得拼多多用户更相信朋友的信用背书，大幅降低了用户的决策成本，因此，尽管外界有抹黑舆论，但用户更愿意相信社交信用，愿意买来试试。</p><p>最后，同比其他平台价格更低的体验，也使得用户更愿意“买来试试，大不了就退货”。</p><p><i><b>假设3：拼多多崛起是因为淘宝没有完全覆盖到，现有用户终将流入淘宝。</b></i></p><p><i><b>真相：（1）阿里系电商在低线城市的渗透率没有想象中那么强大（2）在淘宝和拼多多同时覆盖的人群，用户也更倾向于同时使用两者，而并非抛弃拼多多（3）在使用场景中，用户送礼会上天猫，但自用消费更愿意选择拼多多。</b></i></p><p>在攀枝花等三四线城市，一些用户在调研中向景林的分析师展示手机里的购物APP，分析师发现，使用拼多多的用户更多。</p><p>景林认为，这证明，阿里系电商在低线城市的渗透率没有外界想象中的那么强大。</p><p>而另一方面，即使在淘宝和拼多多同时覆盖的人群，景林也发现，用户也更倾向于同时使用，而并非抛弃拼多多。</p><p>为什么会造成这些想象和现实的差异？不同的消费体验造成了用户场景差异可能是重要原因。</p><p>在攀枝花，景林资产的分析师调研了一位月薪3000元的英语老师。这位中年男人表示，自己穿的衣服大都是拼多多上买的，价格不贵；而给女儿穿的衣服，不少都是天猫或者附近商场买的。</p><p>这或许证明了真实的消费者使用场景。淘宝天猫在走向线上商场转型后，已经成为了“高端商场”的代名词，而普通消费者其实不会每天都在商场购物。恰恰相反，他们会在日常购物场景中选择市场、杂货铺、超市和菜市场，后者正是拼多多为他们创造的线上价值。</p><p>因此，拼多多成为了消费者的日用购物场景，而天猫则成为了“送礼采购”的线上商城。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/211c3593a9889cc3f6c60df0d2f4d2b2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"404\"></p><p><i>▲2020年5月，上海五五购物节开幕。上海各大商场外已经涌入了大量消费者，拼多多的55折购车、现金消费券等活动前面均排起了长队，这从侧面证明了拼多多在超一线城市用户心中的真实影响力。</i></p><p>2018年拼多多创始人黄峥在接受媒体采访时也指出了上面的差异，“我们和淘宝是错位竞争”。</p><p>近日，拼多多CEO陈磊在采访中表示，目前拼多多发送的日均包裹数已超7000万个，日峰值超过1亿单，约占全国日快递包裹总量的三分之一。此前，2020年二季度财报显示，拼多多年度活跃买家数达到了6.83亿。</p><p><i><b>假设4：用户在拼多多上只买便宜的东西。</b></i></p><p><i><b>真相：不要低估中国消费者的消费力，他们也会在拼多多上抢购<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机、投资金条。</b></i></p><p>电商强调多快好省，这其中，省钱一直是拼多多的标签之一。</p><p>但拼多多消费者只会在拼多多上买低价商品、不买高客单价商品吗？</p><p>在调研中，景林资产就发现了这一偏见站不住脚。这些三四线城市的消费者消费力同样旺盛，他们有着很强的消费力和购买欲，比如，购买金条。</p><p>在河南开封，景林的分析师看到一些手上有着闲钱的小学老师和公务员，因为看中了拼多多的补贴和保险公司的承保，选择在拼多多上购买中国黄金的投资金条。这些按克计算的金条，动辄都是几万甚至十数万的客单价，在调研中并不少见。</p><p>中国的普通消费者不缺消费能力和购物欲望，但缺乏的是触达渠道。因此，只要有平台能够给消费者足够的信心，形成消费惯性，就能激活这些潜在的消费需求。</p><p>很多投资人、外企都曾犯过一样的问题：忽视或者轻视中国的普通消费者。</p><p>以<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>手机为例，早期苹果手机在中国市场坚持走高价策略，主要在一二线城市设立门店，但随后，在市场压力之下，苹果发现了中国普通消费者的潜力，因此，在渠道和产品上纷纷进行了下沉战略。</p><p>再比如，拼多多于2019年上线的“百亿补贴”，除了直接补贴消费者之外，更重要的战略价值是首次让很多品牌商意识到了中国普通消费者的存在。拼多多将原本高昂的iPhone、戴森、海蓝之谜、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>等进行一定程度的补贴，便激活了无数的普通消费者的购买潜力。</p><p>据拼多多此前数据显示，拼多多百亿补贴的iPhone数量早已超过200万台，这其中绝大多数都流向了一二线城市之外的下沉市场。</p><p><i><b>假设5：用户对“拼团”新鲜劲过了以后，热度就会下来。</b></i></p><p><b><i>真相：拼单是移动互联网的新模式，是以人为中心，通过社交和算法来驱动的电商变革。</i></b></p><p>拼多多的重要模式之一，是拼单。这一模式在初期，也引发了很多讨论甚至质疑。其中之一认为，拼单不是长久模式，消费者的新鲜劲儿过了，就没人玩了。</p><p>在景林调研中发现，不少商品都是在家族群、好友群里“人传人”的：一些高性价比商品的火爆并不是单纯依靠买广告、做直通车，而是通过微信群等的用户主动拼单分享，并逐渐扩散开来。这样的拼单分享自带信任背书，因此成交率更高。</p><p>拼单看上去是用户端的一次简单操作，多动一次手指而已。但实际上，已经有多个互联网观察者指出，拼单的背后，意味着商品流通的模式发生了根本性变化：过去传统电商的商品分发主要靠“货架”，依赖的是用户主动搜索，而借助拼单，商品分发变成了以消费者个人为节点，依赖的是消费者的主动分享。</p><p>中国互联网的“产品女神”梁宁此前在演讲中也曾分析过这种全新的模式。梁宁认为，拼多多的“用户对用户更有价值”。拼单模式使得拼多多能够在线上创造一种“社交购物”的场景，用户之间的分享行为反哺算法，使得拼多多的算法更加精准，能够捕捉和满足人的需求。</p><p>淘宝是PC互联网时代“人找货”的货架模式，以商品为核心，只要积累和垄断足够多的商品和品牌，就可以吸引消费者来购买。拼单则是移动互联网时代下的新模式，以人为中心，通过社交和算法的方式驱动。</p><p>事实上，回到线下场景来看，“搜索式购物”也并非日常线下消费的主流场景，更多的场景是“和朋友一起逛街、一起买”，社交+娱乐+购物，才是消费的真相。而拼多多的拼单模式，将娱乐和社交场景搬到了手机端，比起单纯的“淘”和搜索，社交场景下的拼更符合当下年轻人的生活方式。</p><p>因此，在2018年投资人质疑拼单模式的持续性两年后，2020年开始，购物拼单、出门拼车、游戏拼团已经全面在移动互联网普及，拼单已经成为一种新的移动互联网生活方式。包括李善友、叶檀、吴晓波频道、秦朔等财经观察者和媒体也认为，拼的时代已经到来。</p><p>人们很容易忽略，拼多多成立至今仅有5年，放在中国互联网巨头之中，也是一个仍然刚刚起步的新企业。尽管2018年拼多多已经上市，但仍然有很多还不够完善的地方，这些地方也招来了猛烈的商业竞争和舆论偏见。</p><p>景林资产调研拼多多的案例证明，没有调查就没有发言权，尤其是对于新生事物，激烈的市场竞争、传统偏见和巨头打压，往往会导致大众理解上的偏差，这种偏差往往需要数年才能被证伪。</p><p>别忘了，在互联网发展的早期阶段，大家认为在网上社交是个笑话，也认为在互联网上购物都是骗局，经过了十年的发展，这些传统偏见才被一一消除。</p><p>而所谓投资，是要用脚踏实地和客观中立的研究，跑在舆论偏见前面。而给新生事物、新生企业以成长和表达的机会，才是一个社会成熟发展的标志。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n从不相信到重仓：景林究竟发现了拼多多什么秘密？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-10-29 19:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6j0GgKwj14ZBi8gZ_j_iVQ><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>周四，拼多多高开高走，盘初一路上攻，截至发稿，涨幅超5%，股价逼近历史高点。回顾2018年7月，新电商拼多多登陆纳斯达克，上市首日，市值达到300亿美元，鲜花与争议纷至沓来。因为拼多多平台的“便宜”超出了部分精英的想象，有关拼多多的质疑声在上市前后达到了顶峰。有的投资人被争议吓退，有的投资人则认为拼多多毫无价值。两年后，管理着1000亿以上规模的资金、中国最大的私募基金景林资产在重仓拼多多之后，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6j0GgKwj14ZBi8gZ_j_iVQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ca362cfe572cb90e2b82decd0cb6d92","relate_stocks":{"PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/6j0GgKwj14ZBi8gZ_j_iVQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1192597688","content_text":"周四，拼多多高开高走，盘初一路上攻，截至发稿，涨幅超5%，股价逼近历史高点。回顾2018年7月，新电商拼多多登陆纳斯达克，上市首日，市值达到300亿美元，鲜花与争议纷至沓来。因为拼多多平台的“便宜”超出了部分精英的想象，有关拼多多的质疑声在上市前后达到了顶峰。有的投资人被争议吓退，有的投资人则认为拼多多毫无价值。两年后，管理着1000亿以上规模的资金、中国最大的私募基金景林资产在重仓拼多多之后，再度刷新私募行业的收益回报纪录。拼多多也成为了景林资产在持有京东、新东方、好未来等企业之后，又一个重仓的新企业。为何景林资产能够在2018年果断重仓拼多多？近日，一篇媒体专访报道揭露了景林资产背后的投资方法论。与外界对拼多多“看不懂所以看衰”的状态不同，在拼多多上市后，仅有30多人的景林资产先后派出了15路调研团队，沿着三条铁路干线，分别奔赴攀枝花、延安和惠州等15个不同省份的内地城市调研拼多多的核心消费者，以及前往义乌、武汉和广州等地走访平台商家和产业人士。▲2018年7月，成立仅三年的拼多多登陆纳斯达克，首日市值就达到了300亿美元。出发之前，景林资产总结了当时五环内投资圈对于拼多多普遍的质疑点，并归纳为“五大假设”，涉及到拼多多的模式优劣、低价策略、用户决策、未来发展等方方面面，但无一例外，这些假设都是负面和质疑。为期两周的调研，景林资产形成了上百万字的调研纪要，最终彻底撕碎了舆论偏见中的“五大假设”。拼模式的新电商在中国市场有着极强的生命力和忠诚度，而中国消费者的消费力和消费观念也突破了他们的想象。看到了基本面的景林资产最终选择在当年的四季度开始投资拼多多并逐渐重仓，据2020年Q2景林提交美国SEC的报表显示，景林所有产品持有拼多多的仓位金额已高达5.2亿美元。按照拼多多市值的增长速度，景林资产的投资账面回报率达到了数倍以上。尽管关于拼多多的15座城市调研已经过去两年，但回头去看，景林资产调研前提出并在调研中一一否定的“五大假设”，至今对互联网行业仍有借鉴和思考意义。以下根据相关的公开报道采访和其他行业资料进行了整理。假设1：用户因为低价才选择拼多多，尽管能忍受低品质，但满意度的绝对值是不足的。真相：中国制造业供给端的充盈，确实能够创造15块钱的高品质牛仔裤，而拼多多通过需求侧的改革，创造了高性价比的线上模式。低价就意味着低品质？事实上，这是典型的精英偏见。在河南商丘，景林的分析师采访了一位月薪2600元的文员小妹。她每天在没有暖气的办公室里打字，手指冻得受不了，她就想买一件羽绒服，但天猫上太贵，就上拼多多花了两三百块买了件充绒量不算最多、但足够保暖的羽绒服。景林资产分析认为，消费者的需求不应该用价格来衡量。很显然，文员小妹花费了尽可能少的钱但同样满足了自己保暖的基本需求。这样的需求真实存在，但很难被五环内写字楼里吹暖气的白领轻易理解。因此，消费者对于“同比价格更低”的需求并不意味着普通消费者享受低品质、低满意度，而更多追求的是商品功能价值，追求商品的性价比。而认定“低价等于低质”，背后是对中国制造产业链和中国零售行业的误解。一方面，经过数十年积累的中国制造产业带，早就拥有了把商品做到低价高质的能力，“中国制造业供给端的充盈，确实能够创造15块钱的牛仔裤”。另一方面，拼多多的模式则是在拼单模式下驱动供应链变革，相当于是在线上创造了一个巨大的需求端，使得商家可以在用户的海量需求之中去想办法稳定生产、降低成本，从而最大化把工厂的产能进行改革，用来为消费者生产高性价比的商品，例如15块钱的牛仔裤。举例来说，传统的工厂因为没有掌握需求端的信息，因此，极有可能盲目采取“高定价”策略，将10块钱的牛仔裤卖到100块钱，导致商品与消费者的真实付款意愿不匹配，造成货物积压，资金链断裂。而拼多多聚拢了一大批消费者，拼团模式使得工厂提前接触到了“15块钱牛仔裤”的购买需求，工厂只需要调整生产线为消费者生产更具性价比的商品，就成功转化交易。这样的转化效率，使得拼多多逐渐驱动供应链向性价比的方向变革。从零售行业发展史来看，高价从来都不是什么竞争优势，恰恰相反，性价比才是新商业模式的起点。以国外零售企业的发展来看，沃尔玛的崛起关键在于一直坚持“天天平价”，而Costco的发展则是靠着会员体系来倒逼品牌商实现性价比。拼多多通过“打掉中间补两头”的方式，同样帮助消费者实现了低价优质的性价比体验。▲山东高密的孚日家纺，曾给爱马仕、无印良品、宜家等知名品牌代工。现如今通过跟拼多多等新电商的合作，一条优质毛巾的价格仅为十元左右。假设2：有关拼多多的负面新闻会对用户产生负面影响，影响购买决策。真相：在体验过拼多多的用户中，95%的消费者并不在意外界舆论，在货比三家后依然选择拼多多。拼多多上市前后曾遭遇空前的质疑声。因为处在激烈的竞争压力之下，因此，拼多多遭遇了互联网史上最大规模的黑公关。在微博、知乎等各大社区论坛上，充斥着专业营销号创作的抹黑性段子内容，尽管拼多多花了一年时间不断辟谣，但负面影响已经造成。这也造成了很多并没有真实用过拼多多的用户和投资人，张口就判定拼多多是假货平台，并因此对平台产生了唱衰的判断。但景林在调研中发现，真实的拼多多用户对于外界舆论中的负面新闻颇为宽容：95%的用户都不在意外界舆论，依然会在拼多多平台继续购物。在真实的用户购买和社会情绪之间或许存在巨大的反差：没有用过拼多多的人受竞争对手的公关战影响，坚持认为拼多多是假货平台，而真实体验过拼多多的用户，则有超过95%选择了相信拼多多。为何会出现舆论与用户真实选择之间的分裂？景林调研认为，消费者宽容的原因，是拼多多的购物体验。一方面，拼多多退货非常方便，如果消费者有不满意，可以立即退货，因此，就算偶尔买到不满意的商品，用户也可以便捷退货，保证了消费者的购物体验。另一方面，和熟人拼团等模式，使得拼多多用户更相信朋友的信用背书，大幅降低了用户的决策成本，因此，尽管外界有抹黑舆论，但用户更愿意相信社交信用，愿意买来试试。最后，同比其他平台价格更低的体验，也使得用户更愿意“买来试试，大不了就退货”。假设3：拼多多崛起是因为淘宝没有完全覆盖到，现有用户终将流入淘宝。真相：（1）阿里系电商在低线城市的渗透率没有想象中那么强大（2）在淘宝和拼多多同时覆盖的人群，用户也更倾向于同时使用两者，而并非抛弃拼多多（3）在使用场景中，用户送礼会上天猫，但自用消费更愿意选择拼多多。在攀枝花等三四线城市，一些用户在调研中向景林的分析师展示手机里的购物APP，分析师发现，使用拼多多的用户更多。景林认为，这证明，阿里系电商在低线城市的渗透率没有外界想象中的那么强大。而另一方面，即使在淘宝和拼多多同时覆盖的人群，景林也发现，用户也更倾向于同时使用，而并非抛弃拼多多。为什么会造成这些想象和现实的差异？不同的消费体验造成了用户场景差异可能是重要原因。在攀枝花，景林资产的分析师调研了一位月薪3000元的英语老师。这位中年男人表示，自己穿的衣服大都是拼多多上买的，价格不贵；而给女儿穿的衣服，不少都是天猫或者附近商场买的。这或许证明了真实的消费者使用场景。淘宝天猫在走向线上商场转型后，已经成为了“高端商场”的代名词，而普通消费者其实不会每天都在商场购物。恰恰相反，他们会在日常购物场景中选择市场、杂货铺、超市和菜市场，后者正是拼多多为他们创造的线上价值。因此，拼多多成为了消费者的日用购物场景，而天猫则成为了“送礼采购”的线上商城。▲2020年5月，上海五五购物节开幕。上海各大商场外已经涌入了大量消费者，拼多多的55折购车、现金消费券等活动前面均排起了长队，这从侧面证明了拼多多在超一线城市用户心中的真实影响力。2018年拼多多创始人黄峥在接受媒体采访时也指出了上面的差异，“我们和淘宝是错位竞争”。近日，拼多多CEO陈磊在采访中表示，目前拼多多发送的日均包裹数已超7000万个，日峰值超过1亿单，约占全国日快递包裹总量的三分之一。此前，2020年二季度财报显示，拼多多年度活跃买家数达到了6.83亿。假设4：用户在拼多多上只买便宜的东西。真相：不要低估中国消费者的消费力，他们也会在拼多多上抢购苹果手机、投资金条。电商强调多快好省，这其中，省钱一直是拼多多的标签之一。但拼多多消费者只会在拼多多上买低价商品、不买高客单价商品吗？在调研中，景林资产就发现了这一偏见站不住脚。这些三四线城市的消费者消费力同样旺盛，他们有着很强的消费力和购买欲，比如，购买金条。在河南开封，景林的分析师看到一些手上有着闲钱的小学老师和公务员，因为看中了拼多多的补贴和保险公司的承保，选择在拼多多上购买中国黄金的投资金条。这些按克计算的金条，动辄都是几万甚至十数万的客单价，在调研中并不少见。中国的普通消费者不缺消费能力和购物欲望，但缺乏的是触达渠道。因此，只要有平台能够给消费者足够的信心，形成消费惯性，就能激活这些潜在的消费需求。很多投资人、外企都曾犯过一样的问题：忽视或者轻视中国的普通消费者。以苹果手机为例，早期苹果手机在中国市场坚持走高价策略，主要在一二线城市设立门店，但随后，在市场压力之下，苹果发现了中国普通消费者的潜力，因此，在渠道和产品上纷纷进行了下沉战略。再比如，拼多多于2019年上线的“百亿补贴”，除了直接补贴消费者之外，更重要的战略价值是首次让很多品牌商意识到了中国普通消费者的存在。拼多多将原本高昂的iPhone、戴森、海蓝之谜、特斯拉等进行一定程度的补贴，便激活了无数的普通消费者的购买潜力。据拼多多此前数据显示，拼多多百亿补贴的iPhone数量早已超过200万台，这其中绝大多数都流向了一二线城市之外的下沉市场。假设5：用户对“拼团”新鲜劲过了以后，热度就会下来。真相：拼单是移动互联网的新模式，是以人为中心，通过社交和算法来驱动的电商变革。拼多多的重要模式之一，是拼单。这一模式在初期，也引发了很多讨论甚至质疑。其中之一认为，拼单不是长久模式，消费者的新鲜劲儿过了，就没人玩了。在景林调研中发现，不少商品都是在家族群、好友群里“人传人”的：一些高性价比商品的火爆并不是单纯依靠买广告、做直通车，而是通过微信群等的用户主动拼单分享，并逐渐扩散开来。这样的拼单分享自带信任背书，因此成交率更高。拼单看上去是用户端的一次简单操作，多动一次手指而已。但实际上，已经有多个互联网观察者指出，拼单的背后，意味着商品流通的模式发生了根本性变化：过去传统电商的商品分发主要靠“货架”，依赖的是用户主动搜索，而借助拼单，商品分发变成了以消费者个人为节点，依赖的是消费者的主动分享。中国互联网的“产品女神”梁宁此前在演讲中也曾分析过这种全新的模式。梁宁认为，拼多多的“用户对用户更有价值”。拼单模式使得拼多多能够在线上创造一种“社交购物”的场景，用户之间的分享行为反哺算法，使得拼多多的算法更加精准，能够捕捉和满足人的需求。淘宝是PC互联网时代“人找货”的货架模式，以商品为核心，只要积累和垄断足够多的商品和品牌，就可以吸引消费者来购买。拼单则是移动互联网时代下的新模式，以人为中心，通过社交和算法的方式驱动。事实上，回到线下场景来看，“搜索式购物”也并非日常线下消费的主流场景，更多的场景是“和朋友一起逛街、一起买”，社交+娱乐+购物，才是消费的真相。而拼多多的拼单模式，将娱乐和社交场景搬到了手机端，比起单纯的“淘”和搜索，社交场景下的拼更符合当下年轻人的生活方式。因此，在2018年投资人质疑拼单模式的持续性两年后，2020年开始，购物拼单、出门拼车、游戏拼团已经全面在移动互联网普及，拼单已经成为一种新的移动互联网生活方式。包括李善友、叶檀、吴晓波频道、秦朔等财经观察者和媒体也认为，拼的时代已经到来。人们很容易忽略，拼多多成立至今仅有5年，放在中国互联网巨头之中，也是一个仍然刚刚起步的新企业。尽管2018年拼多多已经上市，但仍然有很多还不够完善的地方，这些地方也招来了猛烈的商业竞争和舆论偏见。景林资产调研拼多多的案例证明，没有调查就没有发言权，尤其是对于新生事物，激烈的市场竞争、传统偏见和巨头打压，往往会导致大众理解上的偏差，这种偏差往往需要数年才能被证伪。别忘了，在互联网发展的早期阶段，大家认为在网上社交是个笑话，也认为在互联网上购物都是骗局，经过了十年的发展，这些传统偏见才被一一消除。而所谓投资，是要用脚踏实地和客观中立的研究，跑在舆论偏见前面。而给新生事物、新生企业以成长和表达的机会，才是一个社会成熟发展的标志。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1480,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":301990192,"gmtCreate":1603320875816,"gmtModify":1703829507093,"author":{"id":"3530270210164154","authorId":"3530270210164154","name":"merlinsheng","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530270210164154","authorIdStr":"3530270210164154"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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