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董公主
2022-07-29
$英伟达(NVDA)$
对英伟达(NVDA)表态看多看空
董公主
2021-03-05
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@inner peace:
$蔚来(NIO)$
这么恐慌吗?12月的增发什么价来着[微笑]
董公主
2021-03-02
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看看
@小虎周报:美股周策略:纳指料重回领涨姿态!成长价值都回来了!
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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二、空间空间:主要指标均进入临界位置,我们认为美债波动接下来将趋缓,意味着近期调整在空间上,或将接近尾声。 三、风格切换:在不创新低的情况下,纳指近期将重回领涨姿态,同时眼下的复苏周期,更高经营杠杆的传统企业(航空、邮轮、基建等)值得配置。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 上周美股出现比较大的波动和分化,先是通胀预期让美债市场血流成河,紧接着加速上行的美债收益率,又触发了科技股的回调。这次成长股与价值股的分化,应该说是近年来空间差异最大的一次,也是最为引人注目的一次。接下来美股会如何演变牵动人心。 目前市场上,已经有诸多关于美债问题的分析,比如说,美债收益率这波升到1.5%,已经和标普500的股息率相当,意味着债券的吸引力追上美股。 近期美国名义利率(十年期美债收益率)上升和实际利率都在保持上行,反而是通胀预期上升空间不大。也如我们在春节期间的评注,贴现率增大,情绪上开始挤压估值。这次美债利率抬升直接的催化剂和1.9万亿财政刺激预期有关,往前看,比如4月份疫苗在全美成功推行,拜登的刺激组合拳,基建,美联储鸽派的声明,仍然会对美债利率后续的抬升起到基本面支撑。 1.上半年的流动性整体更加宽裕 短期来讲,决定性更多的仍然是上升的速度(美债的波动率),其次才会是空间。因为目前为为止减去通胀后的实际利率仍然为负,包括我们看,美国利率抬升后,也有很多外资开始回流美股,只是货币供给开始从外生性(美联储主导),向内生性(市场主导)过渡。所以市场里面的流动性并没有绝对的紧缩,这个阶段的趋势反而是增加的。 历史上也有类似的情况。比如我们看,05年-07年期间中国央行紧缩加","listText":"一、市场评注:美债利率加速抬升冲击美股,但美元回流,宽松不改的基调下,美股流动性仍然宽裕。 二、空间空间:主要指标均进入临界位置,我们认为美债波动接下来将趋缓,意味着近期调整在空间上,或将接近尾声。 三、风格切换:在不创新低的情况下,纳指近期将重回领涨姿态,同时眼下的复苏周期,更高经营杠杆的传统企业(航空、邮轮、基建等)值得配置。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 上周美股出现比较大的波动和分化,先是通胀预期让美债市场血流成河,紧接着加速上行的美债收益率,又触发了科技股的回调。这次成长股与价值股的分化,应该说是近年来空间差异最大的一次,也是最为引人注目的一次。接下来美股会如何演变牵动人心。 目前市场上,已经有诸多关于美债问题的分析,比如说,美债收益率这波升到1.5%,已经和标普500的股息率相当,意味着债券的吸引力追上美股。 近期美国名义利率(十年期美债收益率)上升和实际利率都在保持上行,反而是通胀预期上升空间不大。也如我们在春节期间的评注,贴现率增大,情绪上开始挤压估值。这次美债利率抬升直接的催化剂和1.9万亿财政刺激预期有关,往前看,比如4月份疫苗在全美成功推行,拜登的刺激组合拳,基建,美联储鸽派的声明,仍然会对美债利率后续的抬升起到基本面支撑。 1.上半年的流动性整体更加宽裕 短期来讲,决定性更多的仍然是上升的速度(美债的波动率),其次才会是空间。因为目前为为止减去通胀后的实际利率仍然为负,包括我们看,美国利率抬升后,也有很多外资开始回流美股,只是货币供给开始从外生性(美联储主导),向内生性(市场主导)过渡。所以市场里面的流动性并没有绝对的紧缩,这个阶段的趋势反而是增加的。 历史上也有类似的情况。比如我们看,05年-07年期间中国央行紧缩加","text":"一、市场评注:美债利率加速抬升冲击美股,但美元回流,宽松不改的基调下,美股流动性仍然宽裕。 二、空间空间:主要指标均进入临界位置,我们认为美债波动接下来将趋缓,意味着近期调整在空间上,或将接近尾声。 三、风格切换:在不创新低的情况下,纳指近期将重回领涨姿态,同时眼下的复苏周期,更高经营杠杆的传统企业(航空、邮轮、基建等)值得配置。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 上周美股出现比较大的波动和分化,先是通胀预期让美债市场血流成河,紧接着加速上行的美债收益率,又触发了科技股的回调。这次成长股与价值股的分化,应该说是近年来空间差异最大的一次,也是最为引人注目的一次。接下来美股会如何演变牵动人心。 目前市场上,已经有诸多关于美债问题的分析,比如说,美债收益率这波升到1.5%,已经和标普500的股息率相当,意味着债券的吸引力追上美股。 近期美国名义利率(十年期美债收益率)上升和实际利率都在保持上行,反而是通胀预期上升空间不大。也如我们在春节期间的评注,贴现率增大,情绪上开始挤压估值。这次美债利率抬升直接的催化剂和1.9万亿财政刺激预期有关,往前看,比如4月份疫苗在全美成功推行,拜登的刺激组合拳,基建,美联储鸽派的声明,仍然会对美债利率后续的抬升起到基本面支撑。 1.上半年的流动性整体更加宽裕 短期来讲,决定性更多的仍然是上升的速度(美债的波动率),其次才会是空间。因为目前为为止减去通胀后的实际利率仍然为负,包括我们看,美国利率抬升后,也有很多外资开始回流美股,只是货币供给开始从外生性(美联储主导),向内生性(市场主导)过渡。所以市场里面的流动性并没有绝对的紧缩,这个阶段的趋势反而是增加的。 历史上也有类似的情况。比如我们看,05年-07年期间中国央行紧缩加","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362341894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":682242026,"gmtCreate":1659034290568,"gmtModify":1659036429075,"author":{"id":"3529485882154147","authorId":"3529485882154147","name":"董公主","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a>对英伟达(NVDA)表态看多看空","listText":"<a 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二、空间空间:主要指标均进入临界位置,我们认为美债波动接下来将趋缓,意味着近期调整在空间上,或将接近尾声。 三、风格切换:在不创新低的情况下,纳指近期将重回领涨姿态,同时眼下的复苏周期,更高经营杠杆的传统企业(航空、邮轮、基建等)值得配置。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 上周美股出现比较大的波动和分化,先是通胀预期让美债市场血流成河,紧接着加速上行的美债收益率,又触发了科技股的回调。这次成长股与价值股的分化,应该说是近年来空间差异最大的一次,也是最为引人注目的一次。接下来美股会如何演变牵动人心。 目前市场上,已经有诸多关于美债问题的分析,比如说,美债收益率这波升到1.5%,已经和标普500的股息率相当,意味着债券的吸引力追上美股。 近期美国名义利率(十年期美债收益率)上升和实际利率都在保持上行,反而是通胀预期上升空间不大。也如我们在春节期间的评注,贴现率增大,情绪上开始挤压估值。这次美债利率抬升直接的催化剂和1.9万亿财政刺激预期有关,往前看,比如4月份疫苗在全美成功推行,拜登的刺激组合拳,基建,美联储鸽派的声明,仍然会对美债利率后续的抬升起到基本面支撑。 1.上半年的流动性整体更加宽裕 短期来讲,决定性更多的仍然是上升的速度(美债的波动率),其次才会是空间。因为目前为为止减去通胀后的实际利率仍然为负,包括我们看,美国利率抬升后,也有很多外资开始回流美股,只是货币供给开始从外生性(美联储主导),向内生性(市场主导)过渡。所以市场里面的流动性并没有绝对的紧缩,这个阶段的趋势反而是增加的。 历史上也有类似的情况。比如我们看,05年-07年期间中国央行紧缩加","listText":"一、市场评注:美债利率加速抬升冲击美股,但美元回流,宽松不改的基调下,美股流动性仍然宽裕。 二、空间空间:主要指标均进入临界位置,我们认为美债波动接下来将趋缓,意味着近期调整在空间上,或将接近尾声。 三、风格切换:在不创新低的情况下,纳指近期将重回领涨姿态,同时眼下的复苏周期,更高经营杠杆的传统企业(航空、邮轮、基建等)值得配置。<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 上周美股出现比较大的波动和分化,先是通胀预期让美债市场血流成河,紧接着加速上行的美债收益率,又触发了科技股的回调。这次成长股与价值股的分化,应该说是近年来空间差异最大的一次,也是最为引人注目的一次。接下来美股会如何演变牵动人心。 目前市场上,已经有诸多关于美债问题的分析,比如说,美债收益率这波升到1.5%,已经和标普500的股息率相当,意味着债券的吸引力追上美股。 近期美国名义利率(十年期美债收益率)上升和实际利率都在保持上行,反而是通胀预期上升空间不大。也如我们在春节期间的评注,贴现率增大,情绪上开始挤压估值。这次美债利率抬升直接的催化剂和1.9万亿财政刺激预期有关,往前看,比如4月份疫苗在全美成功推行,拜登的刺激组合拳,基建,美联储鸽派的声明,仍然会对美债利率后续的抬升起到基本面支撑。 1.上半年的流动性整体更加宽裕 短期来讲,决定性更多的仍然是上升的速度(美债的波动率),其次才会是空间。因为目前为为止减去通胀后的实际利率仍然为负,包括我们看,美国利率抬升后,也有很多外资开始回流美股,只是货币供给开始从外生性(美联储主导),向内生性(市场主导)过渡。所以市场里面的流动性并没有绝对的紧缩,这个阶段的趋势反而是增加的。 历史上也有类似的情况。比如我们看,05年-07年期间中国央行紧缩加","text":"一、市场评注:美债利率加速抬升冲击美股,但美元回流,宽松不改的基调下,美股流动性仍然宽裕。 二、空间空间:主要指标均进入临界位置,我们认为美债波动接下来将趋缓,意味着近期调整在空间上,或将接近尾声。 三、风格切换:在不创新低的情况下,纳指近期将重回领涨姿态,同时眼下的复苏周期,更高经营杠杆的传统企业(航空、邮轮、基建等)值得配置。$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 上周美股出现比较大的波动和分化,先是通胀预期让美债市场血流成河,紧接着加速上行的美债收益率,又触发了科技股的回调。这次成长股与价值股的分化,应该说是近年来空间差异最大的一次,也是最为引人注目的一次。接下来美股会如何演变牵动人心。 目前市场上,已经有诸多关于美债问题的分析,比如说,美债收益率这波升到1.5%,已经和标普500的股息率相当,意味着债券的吸引力追上美股。 近期美国名义利率(十年期美债收益率)上升和实际利率都在保持上行,反而是通胀预期上升空间不大。也如我们在春节期间的评注,贴现率增大,情绪上开始挤压估值。这次美债利率抬升直接的催化剂和1.9万亿财政刺激预期有关,往前看,比如4月份疫苗在全美成功推行,拜登的刺激组合拳,基建,美联储鸽派的声明,仍然会对美债利率后续的抬升起到基本面支撑。 1.上半年的流动性整体更加宽裕 短期来讲,决定性更多的仍然是上升的速度(美债的波动率),其次才会是空间。因为目前为为止减去通胀后的实际利率仍然为负,包括我们看,美国利率抬升后,也有很多外资开始回流美股,只是货币供给开始从外生性(美联储主导),向内生性(市场主导)过渡。所以市场里面的流动性并没有绝对的紧缩,这个阶段的趋势反而是增加的。 历史上也有类似的情况。比如我们看,05年-07年期间中国央行紧缩加","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/362341894","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}