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Less is more,Fast is slow….Time is the source of everything
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LEO星辰
2022-04-26
A股基本见底,现在入场,是伸手接飞刀,会流血,但不会断手
对于现在市场的基本面大家基本都有了解。如政治的疫情防控,经济的资金外流,叠加俄乌局势,还有些人担心美股崩盘,领跌全球。基本情况都有了解了。现在从技术的角度分析一下:三重顶➕岛型反转完美的坚定形态,可是太多人没有在意。到今天跌到了,上证指数跌到了2886。什么概念?打到了什么位置?2020年6月1日日缺口28552020年6月1日的周缺口2861大家都知道缺口很重要‼️代表大资金的介入点,而上证指数,这么大量级,日缺口叠加周缺口,站不站得住?值得思考。说明的问题很重要,这个位置绝对是博弈的临界点。值得入场。而很多股票在指数跌到的这种位置,已经被错杀到了极致,价格已经跌到了2015年的位置,甚至有的已经跌到了2001年的位置,而且还是蓝筹。低于净资产50%…诚恳客观的建议,这位置可以入场A股了,可选择绩优蓝筹标的,净资产附近标的,抗跌板块药、酒标的、周期股养殖农产品标的、稀有资源标的。
A股基本见底,现在入场,是伸手接飞刀,会流血,但不会断手
LEO星辰
02:17
我开仓了52手
$BA 20240726 190.0 CALL$
,多
LEO星辰
07-22 23:40
全球蓝屏
两次全球蓝屏,祸首竟是同一人?14年后,灭霸CEO再酿IT灾难
LEO星辰
07-20
我开仓了6手
$COIN 20240719 255.0 PUT$
,空
LEO星辰
07-20
我开仓了10手
$YINN 20240726 22.5 CALL$
,多
LEO星辰
07-19
我平仓了2手
$DIA 20240719 410.0 PUT$
,4番
LEO星辰
07-19
我开仓了10手
$AVGO 20240719 156.0 PUT$
,空
LEO星辰
07-19
我开仓了10手
$NVDA 20240719 118.0 PUT$
,空
LEO星辰
07-19
我平仓了2手
$TSLA 20240719 250.0 PUT$
,一番
LEO星辰
07-19
我开仓了5手
$TSLA 20240719 250.0 PUT$
,空
LEO星辰
07-19
我平仓了4手
$DIA 20240719 410.0 PUT$
,减
LEO星辰
07-18
我平仓了3手
$DIA 20240719 410.0 PUT$
,一番
LEO星辰
07-18
我开仓了2手
$DIA 20240719 410.0 PUT$
,加
LEO星辰
07-18
我开仓了13手
$DIA 20240719 410.0 PUT$
,空
LEO星辰
07-18
我开仓了4手
$DIA 20240719 408.0 PUT$
,沽
LEO星辰
07-17
我开仓了1手
$DIA 20240719 408.0 PUT$
,空
LEO星辰
07-16
我开仓了20手
$IWM 20240716 214.0 PUT$
,沽
LEO星辰
07-15
我开仓了14手
$TSLA 20240719 230.0 PUT$
,空
LEO星辰
07-13
我平仓了30手
$NOK 20240719 4.0 CALL$
,来看看我最新分享的订单!
LEO星辰
07-13
我开仓了3手
$TSLA 20240712 247.5 PUT$
,沽
LEO星辰
07-13
我开仓了7手
$TSLA 20240712 245.0 PUT$
,空
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA 20240726 190.0 CALL\">$BA 20240726 190.0 CALL$ </a>,多","listText":"我开仓了52手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA 20240726 190.0 CALL\">$BA 20240726 190.0 CALL$ </a>,多","text":"我开仓了52手$BA 20240726 190.0 CALL$ ,多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330308670869792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330270159974648,"gmtCreate":1721662835053,"gmtModify":1721662837220,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"全球蓝屏","listText":"全球蓝屏","text":"全球蓝屏","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330270159974648","repostId":"1177004246","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1177004246","pubTimestamp":1721625688,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1177004246?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-22 13:21","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"两次全球蓝屏,祸首竟是同一人?14年后,灭霸CEO再酿IT灾难","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1177004246","media":"新智元","summary":"此君可以「名垂青史」了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><h4 id=\"id_565419535\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">外媒发现:这次造成微软蓝屏灾难的CrowdStrike CEO,在Windows XP时代就曾搞崩过全球的设备。同样是一次更新,同样让设备断网,同样要人工修复。两次导致全球IT灾难,此君可以「名垂青史」了。</h4></blockquote><p>微软全球蓝屏事件,破案了!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/728487c997d18d5006c9cc1c5b23382b\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"608\"/></p><p>一个由「C-00000291*.sys」配置文件触发的系统逻辑错误,瞬间就破坏掉全世界约10亿台计算机,并在随后引发所有的二阶、三阶效应。</p><p>就如AI大神Karpathy所言,技术领域还存在着的单点瞬时故障,都将对人类社会造成巨大隐患。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3024e1145ec6499d0d48eddb8deba295\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"440\"/></p><p>而这次造成全球TI灾难的始作俑者、CrowdStrike CEO,竟被外媒扒出已有前科——</p><p>2010年在McAfee用一个更新搞崩全球设备的,竟然也是他!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9853032c53230a34e7ff7d64a10c0801\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"800\" tg-height=\"299\"/></p><p><strong>逻辑错误,触发全球大崩溃</strong></p><p>故障发生的第一时间,就有网友向大家发出警告——停止所有CrowdStrike更新!停止所有CrowdStrike更新!</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/799637913682effd9e0ec505a83d5987\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"629\"/></p><p>对于事件起因,Objective-See基金会创始人Patrick Wardle也在第一时间就做了一番详细调查。</p><p>首先,他查看了故障位置——mov r9d,[r8]。其中R8属于未映射的地址。</p><p>这个位置取自指针数组(保存在RAX中),索引RDX(0x14 * 0x8)保存了一个无效的内存地址。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9375cab5a5ca20eb59e4a0cad523918\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"333\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6adbe0e50fb3c491c9dc7ce77568b9f2\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"872\" tg-height=\"388\"/></p><p>其他的「驱动程序」(例如「C-00000291-...32.sys」)似乎是混淆的数据,并且被「CSAgent.sys」进行了x-ref'd操作。</p><p>因此,或许是这种无效(配置/签名)的数据,触发了CSAgent.sys中的故障。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b4217e3aca82c06a3a2dc8b67704a82\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"860\" tg-height=\"262\"/></p><p>通过调试,可以更容易地判断这一点。</p><p>显然,事故中最重要的悬而未决的问题就是,这个「C-00000291-...xxx.sys」文件究竟是什么?</p><p>CSAgent.sys一旦引用它们,就立马崩溃了;而只要删除它们,就可以修复崩溃。</p><p>在VT上,他还对CSAgent.sys以及来自单个故障转储的数据进行了逆向分析。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa3b7cf3be8aab76c3884bf0421884d7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"305\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac4669304db3d927e913c562c17b9215\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"913\" tg-height=\"354\"/></p><p>最后,Wardle分享出了CSAgent.sys的几个版本(+idb),以及各种「C-....sys」文件(包括他认为已经包含了「修复」的最新文件)。</p><p>他表示,由于自己没有任何Windows系统或虚拟机,所以希望网友们能继续挖掘。</p><p>就在昨天,恶意软件专家Malware Utkonos有了更多细节的发现——</p><p>37c78ba2eac468941a80f4e12aa390a00cb22337fbf87a94c59cee05473d1c66这个地址处,似乎有一个针对0xaaaaaaaa的文件魔法检查。</p><p>这个模式,也是「通道文件」(Channel Files)的前四个字节。全部为NULL的文件,就可能会导致该cmp失败。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/009b7611e8641b3b1ad46a190ba838af\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"286\"/></p><p>可以看到,rcx中与0xaaaaaaaa进行比较的值,由ExAllocatePoolWithTagPriority分配在顶部。那里正是接收ZwReadFile读取的数据的缓冲区。</p><p>这个值会在之后用cmp传递给函数(Utkonos在图中将这些函数命名为内部的wdm.h函数调用)。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a39147fac845be2209bad2175c1e2351\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1103\"/></p><p>通过合理性检查可发现:0xaaaaaaaa字节模式仅在此处检查的「通道文件」偏移0处出现过一次。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff165dbeb4296374d4e1c14d3cc23560\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"528\"/></p><p>以下就是执行类似cmp的地址。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ade6d8bb0ec5585682f7b44d8c91957\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"449\"/></p><p>可以看到,只有0xaaaaaaaa看起来不同。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1670e8cd4e585191c89ba028b648c4e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"926\" tg-height=\"188\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1855463621\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">CrowdStrike官方解释</h3><p>很快,CrowdStrike在官博放出的解释,对于网友们疑惑的问题进行了澄清——</p><blockquote><p>2024年7月19日04:09 UTC,CrowdStrike在持续运营中向Windows系统发布了一次传感器配置更新,这也是Falcon平台保护机制的一部分。</p><p></p><p>这次配置更新触发了一个逻辑错误,导致受影响的系统出现崩溃和蓝屏(BSOD)。</p><p></p><p>导致系统崩溃的更新已于2024年7月19日05:27 UTC得到修复。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b62bcdf273b3c06a6bd39ec6529b74c\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"172\"/></p><p>报告地址:https://www.crowdstrike.com/blog/falcon-update-for-windows-hosts-technical-details/</p><p>其中技术细节如下——</p><p>在Windows系统中,通道文件位于以下目录:C:\\Windows\\System32\\drivers\\CrowdStrike\\,并且文件名以「C-」开头。每个通道文件都有一个唯一编号作为标识。</p><p>此次事件中受影响的通道文件为291,文件名以「C-00000291-」开头,以.sys扩展名结尾。虽然通道文件以SYS扩展名结尾,但它们不是内核驱动程序.</p><p>通道文件291会影响Falcon如何评估Windows系统上的命名管道执行。这些命名管道用于Windows中正常进程间或系统间通信的机制。</p><p>周五的更新,本意是针对网络攻击中常见的C2框架中所使用的新发现的恶意命名管道,但实际上却触发了系统的逻辑错误,导致崩溃。</p><p>不过,这与通道文件291或任何其他通道文件中的空字节问题无关。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2258fe5370467fd7e6e3de5cfa8811a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"857\" tg-height=\"1277\"/></p><p>此事已被网友用Suno做成歌曲</p><p>要想恢复,就必须在安全模式下启动机器,并且以本地管理员身份登录并删除内容——这是不可能自动化的。</p><p>因此,这次瘫痪的打击面才会这么大,并且难以恢复。</p><p><strong>上次也是他</strong></p><p>虽然CrowdStrike承认了自己的错误,并在周五发布了道歉声明和解决方案。</p><p>但他们尚未解释清楚,这个破坏性的更新是如何在未经过测试和其他安全措施的情况下发布的。</p><p>自然,众多批评的声音开始集中到事件的核心人物:CrowdStrike的首席执行官George Kurtz。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a6967673048cdb6365bf011426af126\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"333\"/></p><p>科技行业分析师Anshel Sag指出,这已经不是库尔茨第一次在重大IT事件中扮演重要角色了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53a31fd71e257872c785c1b9e5a977f7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1017\" tg-height=\"483\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d3f2e61060151de511a85263ae59eb6\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1028\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p>熟悉的配方,熟悉的味道</p><p>2010年4月21日,杀毒软件McAfee发布了一次面向企业客户的软件更新。</p><p>获得更新后的软件会删除一个Windows系统的关键文件,导致全球数百万台电脑崩溃并反复重启。</p><p>和CrowdStrike的错误类似,McAfee的问题也需要手动修复(设备断网离线)。</p><p>而Kurtz,正是当时McAfee的首席技术官。</p><p>2012年,Kurtz创立了CrowdStrike,并一直担任首席执行官至今。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/203881f536abde30d8b477f995deb0b0\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1089\"/></p><h3 id=\"id_1657762695\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">2010年,发生了什么?</h3><p>2010年4月21日早上6点,McAfee向企业客户发布了一个「有问题」的病毒定义更新。</p><p>然后,这些自动更新的Windows XP电脑,会直接陷入「无限重启」的循环中,直到技术支持人员到场手动修复。</p><p>背后的原因其实很简单——杀毒软件在收到新的定义之后,会将一个常规的Windows二进制文件「svchost.exe」识别为病毒「W32/Wecorl.a」,并予以销毁。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7c5193d7be396bcfe6c77aff740f19e\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"592\"/></p><p>一位大学IT人员报告称,他的网络上有1200台电脑因此瘫痪。</p><p>另一封来自美国企业的电子邮件称,他们有「数百名用户」受到了影响:</p><blockquote><p>这个问题影响了大量用户,而简单地替换svchost.exe并不能解决问题。你必须启动到安全模式,然后安装extra.dat文件,再手动运行vsca 控制台。之后,你还需要删除隔离的文件。每个用户至少有两个文件被隔离,有些用户多达15个。不幸的是,使用这种方法,你无法确定你恢复的文件中哪些是重要的系统文件,哪些是病毒文件。</p></blockquote><p>此外,还有一份来自澳大利亚的报告称,该国最大的超市连锁店有10%的收银机瘫痪,导致14到18家商店被迫关闭。</p><p>这件事在当时的影响之大,让众人纷纷惊叹:「即便是专注于开发病毒的黑客,估计都做不出能像McAfee今天这样能迅速『端掉』这么多机器的恶意软件。」</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0373fbf1be13d19bbab79db3b577339b\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1033\" tg-height=\"199\"/></p><p>以下是SANS Internet Storm Center对这次事件的描述:</p><blockquote><p>McAfee版本为5958的「DAT」文件,正在导致大量Windows XP SP3出现问题。受影响的系统将进入重启循环并失去所有网络连接。这个有问题的DAT文件可能会感染单个工作站以及连接到域的工作站。</p><p>使用「ePolicyOrchestrator」来更新病毒定义文件,似乎加速了这个有问题的DAT文件的传播。ePolicyOrchestrator通常用于在企业中更新「DAT」文件,但由于受影响的系统会失去网络连接,它无法撤销这个有问题的签名。</p></blockquote><p>Svchost.exe是Windows系统中最重要的文件之一,它承载了几乎所有系统功能的服务。如果没有Svchost.exe,Windows根本无法启动。</p><p>两起事件虽然相隔14年,但却有着同样的疑惑——这样的更新是如何从测试实验室流出并进入生产服务器的。理论上,这类问题应该在测试初期就被发现并解决了才对。</p><h3 id=\"id_342745648\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">何许人也?</h3><p>George Kurtz在新泽西州的Parsippany-Troy Hills长大,就读于Parsippany高中。</p><p>Kurtz表示,自己在四年级时就开始在Commodore电脑上编写电子游戏程序。高中时,建立了早期的网络交流平台——公告板系统。</p><p>他毕业于西东大学,获得会计学学位。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a02d5604a0fb4baafbe6984ae882987f\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"440\" tg-height=\"660\"/></p><p>随后他创办了Foundstone,并曾担任McAfee的首席技术官。</p><p>目前,George Kurtz在与Dmitri Alperovitch共同创立的网络安全公司CrowdStrike,担任首席执行官。</p><p>除了商业成就外,他还是一名赛车手。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18051fca4a9593f5c61c64e3c5ea2e25\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"721\"/></p><h4 id=\"id_3912024382\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">Price Waterhouse(普华永道)和 Foundstone</h4><p>大学毕业后,Kurtz在Price Waterhouse开始了他的职业生涯,担任注册会计师(CPA)。</p><p>1993年,Price Waterhouse让Kurtz成为其新成立的安全组的首批员工之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b0592ccc1772d9256903cde659dc329\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"180\"/></p><p>1999年,他与Stuart McClure和Joel Scambray共同撰写了《Hacking Exposed》,这是一本针对网络管理员的网络安全书籍。该书销量超过60万册,并被翻译成30多种语言。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09d62f37989bdba01e78a59f3f80277\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"1080\"/></p><p>同年晚些时候,他创办了一家网络安全公司Foundstone,这是最早专门从事安全咨询的公司之一。Foundstone专注于漏洞管理软件和服务,并发展出了一个广受认可的事件响应业务,许多财富100强公司都是其客户。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a1ca05f86627f83cf3b1c436e332e53\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"628\"/></p><h4 id=\"id_3672046670\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">McAfee</h4><p>McAfee在2004年8月以8600万美元收购了Foundstone,Kurtz因此成为McAfee的高级副总裁兼风险管理总经理。在任期内,他帮助制定了公司的安全风险管理策略。</p><p>2009年10月,McAfee任命他为全球首席技术官和执行副总裁。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a66de4fac2592b888cfe6df07db46307\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1116\"/></p><p>随着时间的推移,Kurtz对现有的安全技术运行缓慢感到沮丧,因为他认为这些技术没有跟上新威胁的发展速度。</p><p>有一次,他在飞机上看到邻座乘客等待15分钟才让McAfee软件在笔记本电脑上加载完毕,这一事件成为他创立CrowdStrike的灵感之一。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8ca7aba1224f5fcc711921efe21e782\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"760\"/></p><h4 id=\"id_1556537054\" style=\"text-align: justify;\">CrowdStrike</h4><p>2011年11月,Kurtz加入私募股权公司Warburg Pincus,担任「驻企企业家」(entrepreneur-in-residence),并开始着手他的下一个项目CrowdStrike。</p><p>2012年2月,他与前Foundstone的首席财务官Gregg Marston和Dmitri Alperovitch联手,正式成立了CrowdStrike。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e00a35d50e58282595e9697cf238577a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"296\"/></p><p>CrowdStrike将重点从反恶意软件和防病毒产品(McAfee的网络安全方法)转移到识别黑客使用的技术,以便发现即将到来的威胁。并开发了一种「云优先」(cloud-first)模式,以减少客户计算机上的软件负担。</p><p>2017年5月,CrowdStrike估值超过10亿美元。2019年,公司在纳斯达克首次公开募股6.12亿美元,估值达到66亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b0bc170fb16e4829fa7da5d4be974ea\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"929\" tg-height=\"523\"/></p><p>2020年7月,IDC报告将CrowdStrike评为增长最快的端点安全软件供应商。</p><p>2024年,Kurtz仍然是CrowdStrike的总裁兼首席执行官。</p><p>果然,世界就是个巨大的草台班子。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1569730104218","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n两次全球蓝屏,祸首竟是同一人?14年后,灭霸CEO再酿IT灾难\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-22 13:21 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j5B1Gfpn0NskgOin9MDhww><strong>新智元</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>外媒发现:这次造成微软蓝屏灾难的CrowdStrike CEO,在Windows XP时代就曾搞崩过全球的设备。同样是一次更新,同样让设备断网,同样要人工修复。两次导致全球IT灾难,此君可以「名垂青史」了。微软全球蓝屏事件,破案了!一个由「C-00000291*.sys」配置文件触发的系统逻辑错误,瞬间就破坏掉全世界约10亿台计算机,并在随后引发所有的二阶、三阶效应。就如AI大神Karpathy...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j5B1Gfpn0NskgOin9MDhww\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9853032c53230a34e7ff7d64a10c0801","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/j5B1Gfpn0NskgOin9MDhww","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1177004246","content_text":"外媒发现:这次造成微软蓝屏灾难的CrowdStrike CEO,在Windows XP时代就曾搞崩过全球的设备。同样是一次更新,同样让设备断网,同样要人工修复。两次导致全球IT灾难,此君可以「名垂青史」了。微软全球蓝屏事件,破案了!一个由「C-00000291*.sys」配置文件触发的系统逻辑错误,瞬间就破坏掉全世界约10亿台计算机,并在随后引发所有的二阶、三阶效应。就如AI大神Karpathy所言,技术领域还存在着的单点瞬时故障,都将对人类社会造成巨大隐患。而这次造成全球TI灾难的始作俑者、CrowdStrike CEO,竟被外媒扒出已有前科——2010年在McAfee用一个更新搞崩全球设备的,竟然也是他!逻辑错误,触发全球大崩溃故障发生的第一时间,就有网友向大家发出警告——停止所有CrowdStrike更新!停止所有CrowdStrike更新!对于事件起因,Objective-See基金会创始人Patrick Wardle也在第一时间就做了一番详细调查。首先,他查看了故障位置——mov r9d,[r8]。其中R8属于未映射的地址。这个位置取自指针数组(保存在RAX中),索引RDX(0x14 * 0x8)保存了一个无效的内存地址。其他的「驱动程序」(例如「C-00000291-...32.sys」)似乎是混淆的数据,并且被「CSAgent.sys」进行了x-ref'd操作。因此,或许是这种无效(配置/签名)的数据,触发了CSAgent.sys中的故障。通过调试,可以更容易地判断这一点。显然,事故中最重要的悬而未决的问题就是,这个「C-00000291-...xxx.sys」文件究竟是什么?CSAgent.sys一旦引用它们,就立马崩溃了;而只要删除它们,就可以修复崩溃。在VT上,他还对CSAgent.sys以及来自单个故障转储的数据进行了逆向分析。最后,Wardle分享出了CSAgent.sys的几个版本(+idb),以及各种「C-....sys」文件(包括他认为已经包含了「修复」的最新文件)。他表示,由于自己没有任何Windows系统或虚拟机,所以希望网友们能继续挖掘。就在昨天,恶意软件专家Malware Utkonos有了更多细节的发现——37c78ba2eac468941a80f4e12aa390a00cb22337fbf87a94c59cee05473d1c66这个地址处,似乎有一个针对0xaaaaaaaa的文件魔法检查。这个模式,也是「通道文件」(Channel Files)的前四个字节。全部为NULL的文件,就可能会导致该cmp失败。可以看到,rcx中与0xaaaaaaaa进行比较的值,由ExAllocatePoolWithTagPriority分配在顶部。那里正是接收ZwReadFile读取的数据的缓冲区。这个值会在之后用cmp传递给函数(Utkonos在图中将这些函数命名为内部的wdm.h函数调用)。通过合理性检查可发现:0xaaaaaaaa字节模式仅在此处检查的「通道文件」偏移0处出现过一次。以下就是执行类似cmp的地址。可以看到,只有0xaaaaaaaa看起来不同。CrowdStrike官方解释很快,CrowdStrike在官博放出的解释,对于网友们疑惑的问题进行了澄清——2024年7月19日04:09 UTC,CrowdStrike在持续运营中向Windows系统发布了一次传感器配置更新,这也是Falcon平台保护机制的一部分。这次配置更新触发了一个逻辑错误,导致受影响的系统出现崩溃和蓝屏(BSOD)。导致系统崩溃的更新已于2024年7月19日05:27 UTC得到修复。报告地址:https://www.crowdstrike.com/blog/falcon-update-for-windows-hosts-technical-details/其中技术细节如下——在Windows系统中,通道文件位于以下目录:C:\\Windows\\System32\\drivers\\CrowdStrike\\,并且文件名以「C-」开头。每个通道文件都有一个唯一编号作为标识。此次事件中受影响的通道文件为291,文件名以「C-00000291-」开头,以.sys扩展名结尾。虽然通道文件以SYS扩展名结尾,但它们不是内核驱动程序.通道文件291会影响Falcon如何评估Windows系统上的命名管道执行。这些命名管道用于Windows中正常进程间或系统间通信的机制。周五的更新,本意是针对网络攻击中常见的C2框架中所使用的新发现的恶意命名管道,但实际上却触发了系统的逻辑错误,导致崩溃。不过,这与通道文件291或任何其他通道文件中的空字节问题无关。此事已被网友用Suno做成歌曲要想恢复,就必须在安全模式下启动机器,并且以本地管理员身份登录并删除内容——这是不可能自动化的。因此,这次瘫痪的打击面才会这么大,并且难以恢复。上次也是他虽然CrowdStrike承认了自己的错误,并在周五发布了道歉声明和解决方案。但他们尚未解释清楚,这个破坏性的更新是如何在未经过测试和其他安全措施的情况下发布的。自然,众多批评的声音开始集中到事件的核心人物:CrowdStrike的首席执行官George Kurtz。科技行业分析师Anshel Sag指出,这已经不是库尔茨第一次在重大IT事件中扮演重要角色了。熟悉的配方,熟悉的味道2010年4月21日,杀毒软件McAfee发布了一次面向企业客户的软件更新。获得更新后的软件会删除一个Windows系统的关键文件,导致全球数百万台电脑崩溃并反复重启。和CrowdStrike的错误类似,McAfee的问题也需要手动修复(设备断网离线)。而Kurtz,正是当时McAfee的首席技术官。2012年,Kurtz创立了CrowdStrike,并一直担任首席执行官至今。2010年,发生了什么?2010年4月21日早上6点,McAfee向企业客户发布了一个「有问题」的病毒定义更新。然后,这些自动更新的Windows XP电脑,会直接陷入「无限重启」的循环中,直到技术支持人员到场手动修复。背后的原因其实很简单——杀毒软件在收到新的定义之后,会将一个常规的Windows二进制文件「svchost.exe」识别为病毒「W32/Wecorl.a」,并予以销毁。一位大学IT人员报告称,他的网络上有1200台电脑因此瘫痪。另一封来自美国企业的电子邮件称,他们有「数百名用户」受到了影响:这个问题影响了大量用户,而简单地替换svchost.exe并不能解决问题。你必须启动到安全模式,然后安装extra.dat文件,再手动运行vsca 控制台。之后,你还需要删除隔离的文件。每个用户至少有两个文件被隔离,有些用户多达15个。不幸的是,使用这种方法,你无法确定你恢复的文件中哪些是重要的系统文件,哪些是病毒文件。此外,还有一份来自澳大利亚的报告称,该国最大的超市连锁店有10%的收银机瘫痪,导致14到18家商店被迫关闭。这件事在当时的影响之大,让众人纷纷惊叹:「即便是专注于开发病毒的黑客,估计都做不出能像McAfee今天这样能迅速『端掉』这么多机器的恶意软件。」以下是SANS Internet Storm Center对这次事件的描述:McAfee版本为5958的「DAT」文件,正在导致大量Windows XP SP3出现问题。受影响的系统将进入重启循环并失去所有网络连接。这个有问题的DAT文件可能会感染单个工作站以及连接到域的工作站。使用「ePolicyOrchestrator」来更新病毒定义文件,似乎加速了这个有问题的DAT文件的传播。ePolicyOrchestrator通常用于在企业中更新「DAT」文件,但由于受影响的系统会失去网络连接,它无法撤销这个有问题的签名。Svchost.exe是Windows系统中最重要的文件之一,它承载了几乎所有系统功能的服务。如果没有Svchost.exe,Windows根本无法启动。两起事件虽然相隔14年,但却有着同样的疑惑——这样的更新是如何从测试实验室流出并进入生产服务器的。理论上,这类问题应该在测试初期就被发现并解决了才对。何许人也?George Kurtz在新泽西州的Parsippany-Troy Hills长大,就读于Parsippany高中。Kurtz表示,自己在四年级时就开始在Commodore电脑上编写电子游戏程序。高中时,建立了早期的网络交流平台——公告板系统。他毕业于西东大学,获得会计学学位。随后他创办了Foundstone,并曾担任McAfee的首席技术官。目前,George Kurtz在与Dmitri Alperovitch共同创立的网络安全公司CrowdStrike,担任首席执行官。除了商业成就外,他还是一名赛车手。Price Waterhouse(普华永道)和 Foundstone大学毕业后,Kurtz在Price Waterhouse开始了他的职业生涯,担任注册会计师(CPA)。1993年,Price Waterhouse让Kurtz成为其新成立的安全组的首批员工之一。1999年,他与Stuart McClure和Joel Scambray共同撰写了《Hacking Exposed》,这是一本针对网络管理员的网络安全书籍。该书销量超过60万册,并被翻译成30多种语言。同年晚些时候,他创办了一家网络安全公司Foundstone,这是最早专门从事安全咨询的公司之一。Foundstone专注于漏洞管理软件和服务,并发展出了一个广受认可的事件响应业务,许多财富100强公司都是其客户。McAfeeMcAfee在2004年8月以8600万美元收购了Foundstone,Kurtz因此成为McAfee的高级副总裁兼风险管理总经理。在任期内,他帮助制定了公司的安全风险管理策略。2009年10月,McAfee任命他为全球首席技术官和执行副总裁。随着时间的推移,Kurtz对现有的安全技术运行缓慢感到沮丧,因为他认为这些技术没有跟上新威胁的发展速度。有一次,他在飞机上看到邻座乘客等待15分钟才让McAfee软件在笔记本电脑上加载完毕,这一事件成为他创立CrowdStrike的灵感之一。CrowdStrike2011年11月,Kurtz加入私募股权公司Warburg Pincus,担任「驻企企业家」(entrepreneur-in-residence),并开始着手他的下一个项目CrowdStrike。2012年2月,他与前Foundstone的首席财务官Gregg Marston和Dmitri Alperovitch联手,正式成立了CrowdStrike。CrowdStrike将重点从反恶意软件和防病毒产品(McAfee的网络安全方法)转移到识别黑客使用的技术,以便发现即将到来的威胁。并开发了一种「云优先」(cloud-first)模式,以减少客户计算机上的软件负担。2017年5月,CrowdStrike估值超过10亿美元。2019年,公司在纳斯达克首次公开募股6.12亿美元,估值达到66亿美元。2020年7月,IDC报告将CrowdStrike评为增长最快的端点安全软件供应商。2024年,Kurtz仍然是CrowdStrike的总裁兼首席执行官。果然,世界就是个巨大的草台班子。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":329242294775880,"gmtCreate":1721412048923,"gmtModify":1721459122624,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了6手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240719 255.0 PUT\">$COIN 20240719 255.0 PUT$ </a>,空","listText":"我开仓了6手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/COIN 20240719 255.0 PUT\">$COIN 20240719 255.0 PUT$ </a>,空","text":"我开仓了6手$COIN 20240719 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股,显然是看好石油公司的收益增长和提升,而且不是短期行为。那么石油股业绩的增长是因为高油价还是美国的石油公司可以长期稳定的输出石油来盈利?对于高油价,可不是美国一个国家可以说了算的。这一点不可能由他来决定,那么必然是长期稳定的石油出口。那么接着上面的问题,美国得到了什么?可以长期向欧盟出口天然气和石油,还能起到稳定能源价格的作用。都知道俄罗斯近些年的发展完全是能源价格上涨带来的。作为重要能源出口型国家原油和天然气价格的上涨给俄罗斯打来经济上的突飞猛进,美国想再次试试这种模式吗?跟朋友也讨论了很久,对于很多问题都有不确定性。甚至有人想到了以后世界原油的格局会走向两套定价模式。两个角度,欧盟达成限制俄石油的统一制裁从供给跟需求的角度,美国角度、增产的量能补足欧盟的需求吗?如果这个增长速度23年底应该可以补上,那么美国的增产属于增量。俄罗斯的角度,印度在以低价大量收购俄罗斯原油,包括很多东南亚国家,俄可能短期会减产,但东南亚国家会迅速补上,时间问题。那么俄罗斯原油供应没有减少。如果欧盟没有达成对俄罗斯的制裁那么美国原油产量,钻井平台的增量也不可能下来,而且就算欧盟某些国家对俄罗斯石油极度依赖,可以达成豁免。那么也有很多国家不可能","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60dedabe67dea3100e2d9570914df709","width":"1170","height":"2532"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":5,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612233334","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":330308670869792,"gmtCreate":1721672249076,"gmtModify":1721685526772,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了52手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA 20240726 190.0 CALL\">$BA 20240726 190.0 CALL$ </a>,多","listText":"我开仓了52手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BA 20240726 190.0 CALL\">$BA 20240726 190.0 CALL$ </a>,多","text":"我开仓了52手$BA 20240726 190.0 CALL$ ,多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330308670869792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":76,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":264813736894608,"gmtCreate":1705674138013,"gmtModify":1705986743063,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"果断买入、PHUN。绝对有惊喜。某一天暴涨之后果断离场。川普竞选贯穿2024年一年。可以重仓博一把。 PHUN 20美金见","listText":"果断买入、PHUN。绝对有惊喜。某一天暴涨之后果断离场。川普竞选贯穿2024年一年。可以重仓博一把。 PHUN 20美金见","text":"果断买入、PHUN。绝对有惊喜。某一天暴涨之后果断离场。川普竞选贯穿2024年一年。可以重仓博一把。 PHUN 20美金见","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/264813736894608","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3552615722436337","authorId":"3552615722436337","name":"观红尘","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0ffc2ec87605745076e60f365298a754","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"4亿股,20元都80亿了。继续增发,4亿股都不止。","text":"4亿股,20元都80亿了。继续增发,4亿股都不止。","html":"4亿股,20元都80亿了。继续增发,4亿股都不止。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":615266382,"gmtCreate":1652973323047,"gmtModify":1652973863161,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"五粮液!6月1日白酒新国标后,价值凸显","htmlText":"重新定义白酒、不得使用食品添加剂、调香白酒属于配制酒……市场监管总局(标准委)发布的《白酒工业术语》、《饮料酒术语和分类》两项国家标准(被业界称为白酒“新国标”),将从6月1日起开始实施。即将实施的白酒‘新国标’,对白酒进行了重新定义,具体是指以粮谷为主要原料,以大曲、小曲、麸曲、酶制剂及酵母等为糖化发酵剂,经蒸煮、糖化、发酵、蒸馏、陈酿、勾调而成的蒸馏酒。这对消费者而言,最大的影响就是消除了他们对白酒的认知、标准、消费‘三大误区’。还有业内人士预测,随着白酒“新国标”的实施,行业或将面临重新洗牌。结论:利多中高白酒,利空低端白酒中高端首推五粮液,启航新起点","listText":"重新定义白酒、不得使用食品添加剂、调香白酒属于配制酒……市场监管总局(标准委)发布的《白酒工业术语》、《饮料酒术语和分类》两项国家标准(被业界称为白酒“新国标”),将从6月1日起开始实施。即将实施的白酒‘新国标’,对白酒进行了重新定义,具体是指以粮谷为主要原料,以大曲、小曲、麸曲、酶制剂及酵母等为糖化发酵剂,经蒸煮、糖化、发酵、蒸馏、陈酿、勾调而成的蒸馏酒。这对消费者而言,最大的影响就是消除了他们对白酒的认知、标准、消费‘三大误区’。还有业内人士预测,随着白酒“新国标”的实施,行业或将面临重新洗牌。结论:利多中高白酒,利空低端白酒中高端首推五粮液,启航新起点","text":"重新定义白酒、不得使用食品添加剂、调香白酒属于配制酒……市场监管总局(标准委)发布的《白酒工业术语》、《饮料酒术语和分类》两项国家标准(被业界称为白酒“新国标”),将从6月1日起开始实施。即将实施的白酒‘新国标’,对白酒进行了重新定义,具体是指以粮谷为主要原料,以大曲、小曲、麸曲、酶制剂及酵母等为糖化发酵剂,经蒸煮、糖化、发酵、蒸馏、陈酿、勾调而成的蒸馏酒。这对消费者而言,最大的影响就是消除了他们对白酒的认知、标准、消费‘三大误区’。还有业内人士预测,随着白酒“新国标”的实施,行业或将面临重新洗牌。结论:利多中高白酒,利空低端白酒中高端首推五粮液,启航新起点","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c86e50f7222cdc5e1f19c510aae94a2","width":"1170","height":"1470"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615266382","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":683535371,"gmtCreate":1656403021098,"gmtModify":1704864681357,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"title":"果断加仓A股,风险释放完毕","htmlText":"国家卫健委28日发布一、优化调整风险人员的隔离管理期限和方式将密切接触者、入境人员隔离管控时间从“14天集中隔离医学观察+7天居家健康监测”调整为“7天集中隔离医学观察+3天居家健康监测”,核酸检测措施从“集中隔离医学观察第1、4、7、14天核酸检测,采集鼻咽拭子,解除隔离前双采双检”调整为“集中隔离医学观察第1、2、3、5、7天和居家健康监测第3天核酸检测,采集口咽拭子”,解除集中隔离医学观察前不要求双采双检。密接的密接管控措施从“7天集中隔离医学观察”调整为“7天居家隔离医学观察”,第1、4、7天核酸检测。二、统一封管控区和中高风险区划定标准将两类风险区域划定标准和防控措施进行衔接对应,统一使用中高风险区的概念,形成新的风险区域划定及管控方案。高风险区实行“足不出户、上门服务”,连续7天无新增感染者降为中风险区,中风险区连续3天无新增感染者降为低风险区。其他地区对近7天内有高风险区旅居史人员,采取7天集中隔离医学观察措施。中风险区实行“足不出区、错峰取物”,连续7天无新增感染者降为低风险区。其他地区对近7天内有中风险区旅居史人员,采取7天居家医学观察措施。低风险区指中、高风险区所在县(市、区、旗)的其他地区,实行“个人防护、避免聚集”。其他地区对近7天内有低风险区旅居史人员,要求3天内完成2次核酸检测。政策的疫情所导致的经济增速的放缓已经结束,政策的改变,致使对于疫情的影响,政府已经采取宽松的策略,这个点的风险得以释放。技术层面而言:突破向上的日缺口3320叠加日缺口的周缺口3356突破向上的日缺口3320,周缺口3356,这种位置的强势向上,同时以跳空缺口的形式,越过30周线,这种日周缺口的叠加同时A股成交量持续近10个交易日破万亿,绝对的加仓点绝佳时机。建议:1、持有优质标的物的继续持有(参照之前的文章)2、已有仓位的,可以选择加仓自己心仪的标的物3、推荐一个蓝筹标","listText":"国家卫健委28日发布一、优化调整风险人员的隔离管理期限和方式将密切接触者、入境人员隔离管控时间从“14天集中隔离医学观察+7天居家健康监测”调整为“7天集中隔离医学观察+3天居家健康监测”,核酸检测措施从“集中隔离医学观察第1、4、7、14天核酸检测,采集鼻咽拭子,解除隔离前双采双检”调整为“集中隔离医学观察第1、2、3、5、7天和居家健康监测第3天核酸检测,采集口咽拭子”,解除集中隔离医学观察前不要求双采双检。密接的密接管控措施从“7天集中隔离医学观察”调整为“7天居家隔离医学观察”,第1、4、7天核酸检测。二、统一封管控区和中高风险区划定标准将两类风险区域划定标准和防控措施进行衔接对应,统一使用中高风险区的概念,形成新的风险区域划定及管控方案。高风险区实行“足不出户、上门服务”,连续7天无新增感染者降为中风险区,中风险区连续3天无新增感染者降为低风险区。其他地区对近7天内有高风险区旅居史人员,采取7天集中隔离医学观察措施。中风险区实行“足不出区、错峰取物”,连续7天无新增感染者降为低风险区。其他地区对近7天内有中风险区旅居史人员,采取7天居家医学观察措施。低风险区指中、高风险区所在县(市、区、旗)的其他地区,实行“个人防护、避免聚集”。其他地区对近7天内有低风险区旅居史人员,要求3天内完成2次核酸检测。政策的疫情所导致的经济增速的放缓已经结束,政策的改变,致使对于疫情的影响,政府已经采取宽松的策略,这个点的风险得以释放。技术层面而言:突破向上的日缺口3320叠加日缺口的周缺口3356突破向上的日缺口3320,周缺口3356,这种位置的强势向上,同时以跳空缺口的形式,越过30周线,这种日周缺口的叠加同时A股成交量持续近10个交易日破万亿,绝对的加仓点绝佳时机。建议:1、持有优质标的物的继续持有(参照之前的文章)2、已有仓位的,可以选择加仓自己心仪的标的物3、推荐一个蓝筹标","text":"国家卫健委28日发布一、优化调整风险人员的隔离管理期限和方式将密切接触者、入境人员隔离管控时间从“14天集中隔离医学观察+7天居家健康监测”调整为“7天集中隔离医学观察+3天居家健康监测”,核酸检测措施从“集中隔离医学观察第1、4、7、14天核酸检测,采集鼻咽拭子,解除隔离前双采双检”调整为“集中隔离医学观察第1、2、3、5、7天和居家健康监测第3天核酸检测,采集口咽拭子”,解除集中隔离医学观察前不要求双采双检。密接的密接管控措施从“7天集中隔离医学观察”调整为“7天居家隔离医学观察”,第1、4、7天核酸检测。二、统一封管控区和中高风险区划定标准将两类风险区域划定标准和防控措施进行衔接对应,统一使用中高风险区的概念,形成新的风险区域划定及管控方案。高风险区实行“足不出户、上门服务”,连续7天无新增感染者降为中风险区,中风险区连续3天无新增感染者降为低风险区。其他地区对近7天内有高风险区旅居史人员,采取7天集中隔离医学观察措施。中风险区实行“足不出区、错峰取物”,连续7天无新增感染者降为低风险区。其他地区对近7天内有中风险区旅居史人员,采取7天居家医学观察措施。低风险区指中、高风险区所在县(市、区、旗)的其他地区,实行“个人防护、避免聚集”。其他地区对近7天内有低风险区旅居史人员,要求3天内完成2次核酸检测。政策的疫情所导致的经济增速的放缓已经结束,政策的改变,致使对于疫情的影响,政府已经采取宽松的策略,这个点的风险得以释放。技术层面而言:突破向上的日缺口3320叠加日缺口的周缺口3356突破向上的日缺口3320,周缺口3356,这种位置的强势向上,同时以跳空缺口的形式,越过30周线,这种日周缺口的叠加同时A股成交量持续近10个交易日破万亿,绝对的加仓点绝佳时机。建议:1、持有优质标的物的继续持有(参照之前的文章)2、已有仓位的,可以选择加仓自己心仪的标的物3、推荐一个蓝筹标","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ec25057971b90c8f88ce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144元,应该是五粮液极限底部了,风险收益比很合适","text":"补充一下,现在的市场是要活着。现在的市场不是抄什么底,而是在买入价格低于价值的标的。长期持有。 144元,应该是五粮液极限底部了,风险收益比很合适","html":"补充一下,现在的市场是要活着。现在的市场不是抄什么底,而是在买入价格低于价值的标的。长期持有。 144元,应该是五粮液极限底部了,风险收益比很合适"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328938622705944,"gmtCreate":1721331429475,"gmtModify":1721333033416,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20240719 156.0 PUT\">$AVGO 20240719 156.0 PUT$ </a>,空","listText":"我开仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AVGO 20240719 156.0 PUT\">$AVGO 20240719 156.0 PUT$ </a>,空","text":"我开仓了10手$AVGO 20240719 156.0 PUT$ ,空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328938622705944","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":933,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":989439747,"gmtCreate":1582895433889,"gmtModify":1704348210130,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCRX\">$BioCryst制药(BCRX)$</a>10倍收益,30美刀见,不会很久","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BCRX\">$BioCryst制药(BCRX)$</a>10倍收益,30美刀见,不会很久","text":"$BioCryst制药(BCRX)$10倍收益,30美刀见,不会很久","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/989439747","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":656654326,"gmtCreate":1683693555465,"gmtModify":1683693557865,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"国金?就这个水平?真见识了。原油需求端呢?消减的需求量有多少?新能源车的替代有多少?一点不考虑。说疫情后复苏?看看上市公司业绩吧,都成什么样了?报复性消费也就这么个量级,还盼望着后面有更大的复苏? 分析商品,要从供需分析,供应端要从增量,减量分析,你分析的挺全面,需求端为什么就只分析了,增量,而不分析减量?极度片面。这文章,还是赶紧删了吧!不要诱导害人了,好吗?谢谢","listText":"国金?就这个水平?真见识了。原油需求端呢?消减的需求量有多少?新能源车的替代有多少?一点不考虑。说疫情后复苏?看看上市公司业绩吧,都成什么样了?报复性消费也就这么个量级,还盼望着后面有更大的复苏? 分析商品,要从供需分析,供应端要从增量,减量分析,你分析的挺全面,需求端为什么就只分析了,增量,而不分析减量?极度片面。这文章,还是赶紧删了吧!不要诱导害人了,好吗?谢谢","text":"国金?就这个水平?真见识了。原油需求端呢?消减的需求量有多少?新能源车的替代有多少?一点不考虑。说疫情后复苏?看看上市公司业绩吧,都成什么样了?报复性消费也就这么个量级,还盼望着后面有更大的复苏? 分析商品,要从供需分析,供应端要从增量,减量分析,你分析的挺全面,需求端为什么就只分析了,增量,而不分析减量?极度片面。这文章,还是赶紧删了吧!不要诱导害人了,好吗?谢谢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656654326","repostId":"1167352152","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1167352152","pubTimestamp":1683691426,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1167352152?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-05-10 12:03","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"读懂巴菲特:油企迈入历史性稀缺时代","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1167352152","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"国金证券认为,美国页岩油产量或将逼近峰值,但油气企业开发意愿持续低下,更倾向于将利润分红,供给端将持续偏紧;另一边,随着需求复苏,全球油品需求存在边际增加可能性。自去年年中开始回落的油价,可能会因稀缺","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><strong>国金证券认为,美国页岩油产量或将逼近峰值,但油气企业开发意愿持续低下,更倾向于将利润分红,供给端将持续偏紧;另一边,随着需求复苏,全球油品需求存在边际增加可能性。</strong></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">自去年年中开始回落的油价,可能会因稀缺而再度上涨?</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在今年的股东大会上,谈及投资西方石油公司,巴菲特坦言看好其在二叠纪盆地的资源和行业地位,认为美国“没有其他地方可以像二叠纪盆地(permian)一样有这么多石油储备”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但“股神”同时也发出警告:页岩油井的衰败很快,开井第一天可能产量1.2万至1.5万桶/日,也许一年或者一年半就枯竭了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对此,国金证券分析师许隽逸、陈律楼在5月8日的报告《油企迈入历史性稀缺时代!》中也提出了类似的观点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国金证券认为,<strong>美国页岩油产量或将逼近峰值,</strong>但油气企业开发意愿持续低下,更倾向于将利润分红,供给端将持续偏紧;另一边,随着需求复苏,全球油品需求存在边际增加可能性。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">有效资本开支不足</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拆解油气生产成本后,国金证券发现,有效资本开支不足导致实物工作量增速维持较低水平,是美国原油产量增速远低于市场预期的核心原因之一:</p><blockquote>我们统计的 36 家全球重点样本综合油企和页岩油企业 2023 年资本开支指引同比增长 19%,但产量指引仅增加了 4%,参考油气企业资本开支指引与产量指引的差额以及美国工资增幅及油气开采涉及原料涨幅,<strong>2023 年油气开采成本或还有 15-20%的通胀,美国原油产量或将继续低于预期。</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb7feb70f24a993dae3fc5fc1aa6f7d2\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"414\"/></p><blockquote>与此同时,通过对全球原油资本开支和产量预期的拆分,我们发现 2023 年预计全球原油资本开支相比 2022 年增长 13%,其中勘探类资本开支增长 5%,开发类资本开支增长14%,<strong>而原油 2023 年产量预计增速仅为 3%,相较于全球原油开发类资本开支增速约为 11%的差额。</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7266a231379216d1db6be2ea4a3995b3\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7785029c02b2f504acfa3a1df4e5de4d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">疫情冲击下劳动力短缺、原材料成本上涨成为上游开发的限制性因素:</p><blockquote>在达拉斯联储的调研中,2020年疫情后员工数量出现显著下滑,偏紧的劳动力市场推动美国工人薪酬水平大幅提升,2022 年每周工资同比上升约 10%,2023Q1 每周工资同比增加 7%,较 2022 年平均水平增加 4%,而 2022 年 CPI 指数同比增加 8%,2023Q1 同比增加 6%,较 2022 年平均水平增加 3%,工人工资增速高于同期消费者价格指数 CPI 增速水平,增加了页岩油企业的生产用工成本。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb2a6364229e6c6f5b3754a05c4f5a3c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"323\"/></p><blockquote>与此同时,上游开发所需要的部分物料成本大幅上涨,如压裂井所需要的管状钢等,从PPI 指数来看,2022 年水泥、钢铁 PPI 增速均保持在 11-13%的范围区间,上游原材料成本上涨也是导致上游开发通胀严重的重要因素,限制了页岩油企业增产能力。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a97e801f9174011a23a4de0cd4191b9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"345\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国金证券指出,即使在高能源通胀情况有所缓解的情况下,资本开支所能带来的实物工作量提升仍有限:</p><blockquote>虽然 2023 年页岩油企业资本开支预算仍有较大增幅(约 23%),但是美国较高通胀水平带来上游开发成本上升将导致产量增长不及预期,页岩油企业 2023 年原油产量指引较 2022 年原油产量同比增幅仅为 4%左右,这一趋势与页岩油企业预计上游开发成本通胀严重不相符。</blockquote><blockquote>参考美联储预测 2023 年通货膨胀率有所回落,结合美国页岩油企业资本开支增量及实际产量指引增量,我们保守估计 2023 年上游开发成本通胀水平仍将保持在 15-20%的较高水平,将持续限制资本开支增量带来的实物工作量增长。</blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">降杠杆、提高股东回报成为页岩油企业首要选择</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">伴随着2022年原油价格的上涨,美国页岩油企业在现金流显著改善后并未大力增加资本开支,而是大幅降低企业杠杆,以及提高股东回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国金证券认为,这一现象主要因为页岩油企受到2020-2021年破产潮以及长期债务的影响,增加资本开支的意愿减弱。</p><blockquote>通过对样本公司的经营性净现金流以及资本开支数据的整理可以发现,页岩油企业资本开支经历了约 3 个阶段:</blockquote><blockquote>2013-2016 年期间,页岩油企业资本开支远超企业经营活动现金流净额,该阶段油企通过加杠杆推高资本开支金额;</blockquote><blockquote>2017-2019 年,该阶段油企资本开支与油企经营活动现金流净额基本一致,油企逐步依靠内生性资金维持每年的资本开支;</blockquote><blockquote>自 2020 年以后,受疫情、地缘局势问题、终端消费低迷等一系列影响,油企资本开支大幅下滑,资本开支在经营活动现金流净额占比从 2019 年的 109%左右下滑至 2022 年40%区间,即使 2022 年全球原油需求持续改善以及油价维持较高水平,页岩油企资本开支依然增幅有限,开支意愿不足。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb18fe8b42caa34ffa62f300ae6e21e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"364\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">上游油气企业资本开支与国际油价走势密切相关,但近几年页岩油企业资本开支在经营活动现金流净额的占比与原油价格出现显著背离。</p><blockquote><strong>油价对页岩油企业的整体收入和利润影响显著,</strong>当油价上涨时,将直接增加页岩油企业的营业收入和利润,进而增加油企的资本开支。</blockquote><blockquote>但 2020-2022 年,<strong>原油价格与上游油气企业资本开支出现较为显著的背离情景</strong>,在 2021-2022 年高油价以及油价维持高位的预期下,页岩油企业资本开支并未出现显著的增长,甚至并未完全恢复疫情前水平,且资本开支在公司经营活动现金流净额占比逐年降低。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bee56e8cffcbdad69d6e9374b89e03c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><blockquote>同时,页岩油企受困于偿还长期债务与 2020 年低油价影响,2020-2021 年出现了页岩油破产潮,叠加融资难度及融资成本的上升或导致页岩油企业倾向于加快降杠杆速度,2022年23家样本页岩油企业资产负债率同比减少6pct,较2020年资产负债率高点减少14pct。</blockquote><blockquote><strong>因此,在油价上涨推动页岩油气企业经营活动现金流净额的充裕后,降杠杆,提高股东回报目前依然是页岩油企业优先选择。</strong></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e053fc72c65ef1daf375b3ef257db776\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5547e697bbf2a2e0b80a5804892dc0e9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"365\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d7c1095949e92e19b50a0833272ebe6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"361\"/></p><h2 style=\"text-align: start;\">供给偏紧 需求复苏</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方面,页岩油企增产意愿薄弱,另一方面,OPEC宣布减产,共同促成了原油供给偏紧的结果,而美国等方面为压制油价而释放战略储备的措施几乎失效:</p><blockquote>OPEC+在原油价格出现下滑情景下提出额外自愿减产计划,高油价诉求较为显著。</blockquote><blockquote>当前 OPEC 原油对外出口量基本恢复至 2019 年疫情前水平,伴随 OPEC 计划维持 200万桶/天的原油减产配额及最新重点产油国自 5 月起至 2023 年年底的额外自愿减产,OPEC 原油出口或边际减少。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5486d4032a3daf52847c35ad15373f4b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"369\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afc9754e19db6c877aa3e1592cb70fa8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"/></p><blockquote>在全球原油供需持续偏紧情景下,IEA 和美国纷纷宣布释储,2022 年欧美持续通过联合释储抑制原油价格上涨,2022 年年底 IEA 结束释储,美国原油战略库存释储数量减少。</blockquote><blockquote>截至 2023 年 4 月 28 日,美国战略库存仅为 364.94百万桶,处于 1983 年以来最低水平,此次释储目前已释放 664 万桶,仍有约 1900 万桶释储空间。美国结束原油战略库存的释储并转为补库,或说明美国为保障国家能源安全,释储压制油价的手段几乎失效。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/344cade2c0c2ebe470bb87412b045b1d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2365a824cbecb7474854f8d6c2823f18\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"279\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时,整体海外出行强度持续维持复苏趋势:</p><blockquote>2023 年第一季度欧美出行指数基本维持或高于 2021-2022 年同期水平,伴随美联储加息结束,需求预期回暖,海外原油需求或将持续维持较为稳健的态势。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63c723c3d9bf04f35c7b28dd42e67ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/030421ac7ba8d72bdf28374a814df3ca\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"330\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/491f0a3060f743dc5a366339362c0ab7\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/34001d6fb91d385a5cc30cfd8d9e101e\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"353\"/></p><blockquote>与此同时,中国疫情政策放开后,出行强度强劲复苏。截至目前中国出行指数、中国航空出行指数已超过 2019 年同期水平,仅低于 2021 年。当前“五一”旺季也极大程度提振了中国出行强度复苏,伴随市场需求持续回暖,中国油品市场需求或将出现显著增量。</blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f1c741f711c2cb75d12a2aac7311e07\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"329\"/></p></body></html>","source":"live_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>读懂巴菲特:油企迈入历史性稀缺时代</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n读懂巴菲特:油企迈入历史性稀缺时代\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-05-10 12:03 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688307><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>国金证券认为,美国页岩油产量或将逼近峰值,但油气企业开发意愿持续低下,更倾向于将利润分红,供给端将持续偏紧;另一边,随着需求复苏,全球油品需求存在边际增加可能性。自去年年中开始回落的油价,可能会因稀缺而再度上涨?在今年的股东大会上,谈及投资西方石油公司,巴菲特坦言看好其在二叠纪盆地的资源和行业地位,认为美国“没有其他地方可以像二叠纪盆地(permian)一样有这么多石油储备”。但“股神”同时也发出...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688307\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cdc7ca9eb3fdcde7868d42c981e73b12","relate_stocks":{"USO":"美国原油ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3688307","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1167352152","content_text":"国金证券认为,美国页岩油产量或将逼近峰值,但油气企业开发意愿持续低下,更倾向于将利润分红,供给端将持续偏紧;另一边,随着需求复苏,全球油品需求存在边际增加可能性。自去年年中开始回落的油价,可能会因稀缺而再度上涨?在今年的股东大会上,谈及投资西方石油公司,巴菲特坦言看好其在二叠纪盆地的资源和行业地位,认为美国“没有其他地方可以像二叠纪盆地(permian)一样有这么多石油储备”。但“股神”同时也发出警告:页岩油井的衰败很快,开井第一天可能产量1.2万至1.5万桶/日,也许一年或者一年半就枯竭了。对此,国金证券分析师许隽逸、陈律楼在5月8日的报告《油企迈入历史性稀缺时代!》中也提出了类似的观点。国金证券认为,美国页岩油产量或将逼近峰值,但油气企业开发意愿持续低下,更倾向于将利润分红,供给端将持续偏紧;另一边,随着需求复苏,全球油品需求存在边际增加可能性。有效资本开支不足拆解油气生产成本后,国金证券发现,有效资本开支不足导致实物工作量增速维持较低水平,是美国原油产量增速远低于市场预期的核心原因之一:我们统计的 36 家全球重点样本综合油企和页岩油企业 2023 年资本开支指引同比增长 19%,但产量指引仅增加了 4%,参考油气企业资本开支指引与产量指引的差额以及美国工资增幅及油气开采涉及原料涨幅,2023 年油气开采成本或还有 15-20%的通胀,美国原油产量或将继续低于预期。与此同时,通过对全球原油资本开支和产量预期的拆分,我们发现 2023 年预计全球原油资本开支相比 2022 年增长 13%,其中勘探类资本开支增长 5%,开发类资本开支增长14%,而原油 2023 年产量预计增速仅为 3%,相较于全球原油开发类资本开支增速约为 11%的差额。疫情冲击下劳动力短缺、原材料成本上涨成为上游开发的限制性因素:在达拉斯联储的调研中,2020年疫情后员工数量出现显著下滑,偏紧的劳动力市场推动美国工人薪酬水平大幅提升,2022 年每周工资同比上升约 10%,2023Q1 每周工资同比增加 7%,较 2022 年平均水平增加 4%,而 2022 年 CPI 指数同比增加 8%,2023Q1 同比增加 6%,较 2022 年平均水平增加 3%,工人工资增速高于同期消费者价格指数 CPI 增速水平,增加了页岩油企业的生产用工成本。与此同时,上游开发所需要的部分物料成本大幅上涨,如压裂井所需要的管状钢等,从PPI 指数来看,2022 年水泥、钢铁 PPI 增速均保持在 11-13%的范围区间,上游原材料成本上涨也是导致上游开发通胀严重的重要因素,限制了页岩油企业增产能力。国金证券指出,即使在高能源通胀情况有所缓解的情况下,资本开支所能带来的实物工作量提升仍有限:虽然 2023 年页岩油企业资本开支预算仍有较大增幅(约 23%),但是美国较高通胀水平带来上游开发成本上升将导致产量增长不及预期,页岩油企业 2023 年原油产量指引较 2022 年原油产量同比增幅仅为 4%左右,这一趋势与页岩油企业预计上游开发成本通胀严重不相符。参考美联储预测 2023 年通货膨胀率有所回落,结合美国页岩油企业资本开支增量及实际产量指引增量,我们保守估计 2023 年上游开发成本通胀水平仍将保持在 15-20%的较高水平,将持续限制资本开支增量带来的实物工作量增长。降杠杆、提高股东回报成为页岩油企业首要选择伴随着2022年原油价格的上涨,美国页岩油企业在现金流显著改善后并未大力增加资本开支,而是大幅降低企业杠杆,以及提高股东回报。国金证券认为,这一现象主要因为页岩油企受到2020-2021年破产潮以及长期债务的影响,增加资本开支的意愿减弱。通过对样本公司的经营性净现金流以及资本开支数据的整理可以发现,页岩油企业资本开支经历了约 3 个阶段:2013-2016 年期间,页岩油企业资本开支远超企业经营活动现金流净额,该阶段油企通过加杠杆推高资本开支金额;2017-2019 年,该阶段油企资本开支与油企经营活动现金流净额基本一致,油企逐步依靠内生性资金维持每年的资本开支;自 2020 年以后,受疫情、地缘局势问题、终端消费低迷等一系列影响,油企资本开支大幅下滑,资本开支在经营活动现金流净额占比从 2019 年的 109%左右下滑至 2022 年40%区间,即使 2022 年全球原油需求持续改善以及油价维持较高水平,页岩油企资本开支依然增幅有限,开支意愿不足。上游油气企业资本开支与国际油价走势密切相关,但近几年页岩油企业资本开支在经营活动现金流净额的占比与原油价格出现显著背离。油价对页岩油企业的整体收入和利润影响显著,当油价上涨时,将直接增加页岩油企业的营业收入和利润,进而增加油企的资本开支。但 2020-2022 年,原油价格与上游油气企业资本开支出现较为显著的背离情景,在 2021-2022 年高油价以及油价维持高位的预期下,页岩油企业资本开支并未出现显著的增长,甚至并未完全恢复疫情前水平,且资本开支在公司经营活动现金流净额占比逐年降低。同时,页岩油企受困于偿还长期债务与 2020 年低油价影响,2020-2021 年出现了页岩油破产潮,叠加融资难度及融资成本的上升或导致页岩油企业倾向于加快降杠杆速度,2022年23家样本页岩油企业资产负债率同比减少6pct,较2020年资产负债率高点减少14pct。因此,在油价上涨推动页岩油气企业经营活动现金流净额的充裕后,降杠杆,提高股东回报目前依然是页岩油企业优先选择。供给偏紧 需求复苏一方面,页岩油企增产意愿薄弱,另一方面,OPEC宣布减产,共同促成了原油供给偏紧的结果,而美国等方面为压制油价而释放战略储备的措施几乎失效:OPEC+在原油价格出现下滑情景下提出额外自愿减产计划,高油价诉求较为显著。当前 OPEC 原油对外出口量基本恢复至 2019 年疫情前水平,伴随 OPEC 计划维持 200万桶/天的原油减产配额及最新重点产油国自 5 月起至 2023 年年底的额外自愿减产,OPEC 原油出口或边际减少。在全球原油供需持续偏紧情景下,IEA 和美国纷纷宣布释储,2022 年欧美持续通过联合释储抑制原油价格上涨,2022 年年底 IEA 结束释储,美国原油战略库存释储数量减少。截至 2023 年 4 月 28 日,美国战略库存仅为 364.94百万桶,处于 1983 年以来最低水平,此次释储目前已释放 664 万桶,仍有约 1900 万桶释储空间。美国结束原油战略库存的释储并转为补库,或说明美国为保障国家能源安全,释储压制油价的手段几乎失效。与此同时,整体海外出行强度持续维持复苏趋势:2023 年第一季度欧美出行指数基本维持或高于 2021-2022 年同期水平,伴随美联储加息结束,需求预期回暖,海外原油需求或将持续维持较为稳健的态势。与此同时,中国疫情政策放开后,出行强度强劲复苏。截至目前中国出行指数、中国航空出行指数已超过 2019 年同期水平,仅低于 2021 年。当前“五一”旺季也极大程度提振了中国出行强度复苏,伴随市场需求持续回暖,中国油品市场需求或将出现显著增量。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"10000000000010310","authorId":"10000000000010310","name":"黑天鹅本人","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78bec073397d54a68f80879dd87fd45c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"我真是见识了,国金这水平也敢推荐","text":"我真是见识了,国金这水平也敢推荐","html":"我真是见识了,国金这水平也敢推荐"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326775194026016,"gmtCreate":1720810703969,"gmtModify":1721027393833,"author":{"id":"3526508411761256","authorId":"3526508411761256","name":"LEO星辰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6aac7abee289be955c01a6a446f8291a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了30手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NOK 20240719 4.0 CALL\">$NOK 20240719 4.0 CALL$ </a>,来看看我最新分享的订单!","listText":"我平仓了30手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NOK 20240719 4.0 CALL\">$NOK 20240719 4.0 CALL$ 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