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安心顺心开心
2020-04-10
$趣头条(QTT)$
好垃圾哦,
安心顺心开心
2020-11-09
$陌陌(MOMO)$
真垃圾。
安心顺心开心
2020-10-13
$陌陌(MOMO)$
怎么就会买到这种垃圾股呢,想想都郁闷。
安心顺心开心
2020-09-18
$趣头条(QTT)$
简直对这没**用票死心啦。渣
安心顺心开心
2020-04-15
$陌陌(MOMO)$
太垃圾,业绩好有个鸟用,能回本美股也不玩啦,一个都是骗。
安心顺心开心
2020-06-16
$陌陌(MOMO)$
差到评论形容二字“垃圾”
安心顺心开心
2020-07-22
$陌陌(MOMO)$
太衰太衰早S早退市好。
安心顺心开心
2020-07-13
$陌陌(MOMO)$
有毛病吧。
安心顺心开心
2020-05-22
$陌陌(MOMO)$
这垃圾还说业绩好跌起比谁都跌得快,亳无支撑,简直无语。
安心顺心开心
2020-05-11
$陌陌(MOMO)$
真的有毛病别的互联网公司都升,这垃圾却在跌,有毒有毒。
安心顺心开心
2020-04-09
$陌陌(MOMO)$
请问陌陌每股分红是什么时候.
安心顺心开心
2020-04-02
$陌陌(MOMO)$
跌停最好,正好低收。😂😂😂
安心顺心开心
2020-06-16
$趣头条(QTT)$
何年马月才能翻身解套,垃圾股。
安心顺心开心
2020-04-02
$趣头条(QTT)$
垃圾都不如,真的越年青越死得快。
安心顺心开心
2020-03-24
$趣头条(QTT)$
什么情况,天天狗屎样跌,是公司临要破产了吗。
安心顺心开心
2020-12-30
$陌陌(MOMO)$
瞧瞧人家唯品会不觉得害臊吗?
安心顺心开心
2020-03-30
$趣头条(QTT)$
不堪而目,太差劲啦!迟早变仙股
安心顺心开心
2020-11-05
$陌陌(MOMO)$
垃圾公司加🐶庄去S吧。
安心顺心开心
2020-11-04
$陌陌(MOMO)$
日你大爷,跌成🐶屎样。
安心顺心开心
2020-08-13
鬼才信他说。
“巴菲特指标”闪烁警告信号,全球股市抛售潮要来了吗?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">$陌陌(MOMO)$</a>怎么就会买到这种垃圾股呢,想想都郁闷。","text":"$陌陌(MOMO)$怎么就会买到这种垃圾股呢,想想都郁闷。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/309160463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1905,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975032015,"gmtCreate":1600360118137,"gmtModify":1703821400714,"author":{"id":"3523704008471185","authorId":"3523704008471185","name":"安心顺心开心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f387422596847865e3b29f8d7fd427dd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523704008471185","authorIdStr":"3523704008471185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">$趣头条(QTT)$</a>简直对这没**用票死心啦。渣","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">$趣头条(QTT)$</a>简直对这没**用票死心啦。渣","text":"$趣头条(QTT)$简直对这没**用票死心啦。渣","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975032015","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":947637427,"gmtCreate":1597307339869,"gmtModify":1704215273015,"author":{"id":"3523704008471185","authorId":"3523704008471185","name":"安心顺心开心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f387422596847865e3b29f8d7fd427dd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523704008471185","authorIdStr":"3523704008471185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"鬼才信他说。","listText":"鬼才信他说。","text":"鬼才信他说。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/947637427","repostId":"1198314863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198314863","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国大陆领先的金融数据、信息和软件服务企业,总部位于上海陆家嘴金融中心。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Wind万得","id":"99","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68"},"pubTimestamp":1597285225,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198314863?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-13 10:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“巴菲特指标”闪烁警告信号,全球股市抛售潮要来了吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198314863","media":"Wind万得","summary":"据媒体报道,今年以来,美股与经济数据“脱轨”的涨幅引发分析师对泡沫的担忧,而“巴菲特指标”——全球股市市值与GDP比率也创下1971年以来新高,暗示市场面临抛售风险。\n“巴菲特指标”创下新高,全球股市","content":"<p>据媒体报道,今年以来,美股与经济数据“脱轨”的涨幅引发分析师对泡沫的担忧,而“巴菲特指标”——全球股市市值与GDP比率也创下1971年以来新高,暗示市场面临抛售风险。</p>\n<p>“巴菲特指标”创下新高,全球股市闪烁警示信号</p>\n<p>8月12日,美股三大指数均涨逾1%,投资者对经济前景的乐观程度有所提升。但另一方面,“股神”巴菲特最喜欢的指标——全球市值与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率在8月12日达到177.89%,创下1971年以来新高。</p>\n<p>该指标曾被巴菲特称为“给定时间估值水平的最佳单一度量指标”,一旦比率超过100%,就表示当前市场被高估,而当该指标接近50%(接近美国市场的历史平均水平),即表明当前市场存在低估。在过去的二十年中,该比率在2000年、2008年以及2018年均突破三位数,随后全球股市便迎来了抛售潮。</p>\n<p>巴菲特曾表示,当该指标在互联网泡沫破灭前的几个月中飙升至创纪录的高点时,它“应该是一个非常强烈的警告信号”。而当下美股市场同样受科技股上涨推动,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>今年股价屡创新高,市值均突破万亿美元。FAAMG约占标普500市值的20%,因此这些公司的估值下调会冲击整个美股市场的估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2139db29e32c73b6c56a7062f6acce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"351\"></p>\n<p>该指标的当前水平也凸显出全球股市高估与经济增长放缓之间的巨大差距。收益于政府和央行积极干预以纾困公司和支撑市场,全球股市上涨;同时,全球经济则因封锁政策受到重创,工厂关闭、旅行禁令及在家办公都对各行业带来严重冲击。</p>\n<p>股市“抛售潮”或冲击美国经济</p>\n<p>另一方面,一旦全球市场上演“抛售潮”,将反过来为经济复苏带来压力。基石宏观(Cornerstone Macro)首席投资策略师迈克尔•坎特罗维茨(Michael Kantrowitz)表示,股市在经济中所占的比重越来越大,股市下跌可能会对美国的经济复苏产生重大影响。</p>\n<p>“在过去的30年里,通过财富效应,我们知道股市是经济的重要组成部分。美联储的政策和降息最终使市场在经济中占据了更大的比重。”他补充说,如果市场下滑对经济产生负面影响,“工具就会减少”,因为美联储“效率降低了”,无法进一步降低利率。</p>\n<p>这位策略师最近在一份题为《股票大到不能倒》的报告中指出: “我们认为,在消费者信心、财富和收入对股市的杠杆作用比以往任何时候都大的背景下,市值与GDP的比率将达到创纪录高点。”他补充说:“股市太大了,不能倒在这里,因为股市大跌可能会给美国政府带来巨额账单。”</p>\n<p>坎特罗威茨同样谈及了“巴菲特指标”,不过他看待这一指标的方式与巴菲特略有不同。他表示:“这不仅仅是一种估值指标,更多的是一种衡量经济对市场杠杆程度的方式”。换句话说,考虑到目前股市相对于经济的规模处于历史最高水平,如果股市出现大幅回调,将对经济产生更大影响。</p>\n<p>不过,该指标也有其不足之处。例如,它将当前股票估值与上个季度的GDP进行比较,并不是所有国家都提供定期、可靠的GDP数据。并且美国近期经济数据,以及美债收益率上升,都在暗示经济前景预期有所好转。如果全球经济持续复苏,有望通过提高分母降低指标数值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2608a49c818fb227c888a94d67c4ad49\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"429\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a> (Wells Fargo&Co)股票策略主管克里斯·哈维(Chris Harvey)说:“当下市场很多现象让人想起90年代后期的崩溃。”但他不认为互联网泡沫时期的抛售潮会卷土重来,而是预期未来几个月股市涨幅可能会减弱。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“巴菲特指标”闪烁警告信号,全球股市抛售潮要来了吗?</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“巴菲特指标”闪烁警告信号,全球股市抛售潮要来了吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-13 10:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据媒体报道,今年以来,美股与经济数据“脱轨”的涨幅引发分析师对泡沫的担忧,而“巴菲特指标”——全球股市市值与GDP比率也创下1971年以来新高,暗示市场面临抛售风险。</p>\n<p>“巴菲特指标”创下新高,全球股市闪烁警示信号</p>\n<p>8月12日,美股三大指数均涨逾1%,投资者对经济前景的乐观程度有所提升。但另一方面,“股神”巴菲特最喜欢的指标——全球市值与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率在8月12日达到177.89%,创下1971年以来新高。</p>\n<p>该指标曾被巴菲特称为“给定时间估值水平的最佳单一度量指标”,一旦比率超过100%,就表示当前市场被高估,而当该指标接近50%(接近美国市场的历史平均水平),即表明当前市场存在低估。在过去的二十年中,该比率在2000年、2008年以及2018年均突破三位数,随后全球股市便迎来了抛售潮。</p>\n<p>巴菲特曾表示,当该指标在互联网泡沫破灭前的几个月中飙升至创纪录的高点时,它“应该是一个非常强烈的警告信号”。而当下美股市场同样受科技股上涨推动,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>今年股价屡创新高,市值均突破万亿美元。FAAMG约占标普500市值的20%,因此这些公司的估值下调会冲击整个美股市场的估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2139db29e32c73b6c56a7062f6acce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"351\"></p>\n<p>该指标的当前水平也凸显出全球股市高估与经济增长放缓之间的巨大差距。收益于政府和央行积极干预以纾困公司和支撑市场,全球股市上涨;同时,全球经济则因封锁政策受到重创,工厂关闭、旅行禁令及在家办公都对各行业带来严重冲击。</p>\n<p>股市“抛售潮”或冲击美国经济</p>\n<p>另一方面,一旦全球市场上演“抛售潮”,将反过来为经济复苏带来压力。基石宏观(Cornerstone Macro)首席投资策略师迈克尔•坎特罗维茨(Michael Kantrowitz)表示,股市在经济中所占的比重越来越大,股市下跌可能会对美国的经济复苏产生重大影响。</p>\n<p>“在过去的30年里,通过财富效应,我们知道股市是经济的重要组成部分。美联储的政策和降息最终使市场在经济中占据了更大的比重。”他补充说,如果市场下滑对经济产生负面影响,“工具就会减少”,因为美联储“效率降低了”,无法进一步降低利率。</p>\n<p>这位策略师最近在一份题为《股票大到不能倒》的报告中指出: “我们认为,在消费者信心、财富和收入对股市的杠杆作用比以往任何时候都大的背景下,市值与GDP的比率将达到创纪录高点。”他补充说:“股市太大了,不能倒在这里,因为股市大跌可能会给美国政府带来巨额账单。”</p>\n<p>坎特罗威茨同样谈及了“巴菲特指标”,不过他看待这一指标的方式与巴菲特略有不同。他表示:“这不仅仅是一种估值指标,更多的是一种衡量经济对市场杠杆程度的方式”。换句话说,考虑到目前股市相对于经济的规模处于历史最高水平,如果股市出现大幅回调,将对经济产生更大影响。</p>\n<p>不过,该指标也有其不足之处。例如,它将当前股票估值与上个季度的GDP进行比较,并不是所有国家都提供定期、可靠的GDP数据。并且美国近期经济数据,以及美债收益率上升,都在暗示经济前景预期有所好转。如果全球经济持续复苏,有望通过提高分母降低指标数值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2608a49c818fb227c888a94d67c4ad49\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"429\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a> (Wells Fargo&Co)股票策略主管克里斯·哈维(Chris Harvey)说:“当下市场很多现象让人想起90年代后期的崩溃。”但他不认为互联网泡沫时期的抛售潮会卷土重来,而是预期未来几个月股市涨幅可能会减弱。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198314863","content_text":"据媒体报道,今年以来,美股与经济数据“脱轨”的涨幅引发分析师对泡沫的担忧,而“巴菲特指标”——全球股市市值与GDP比率也创下1971年以来新高,暗示市场面临抛售风险。\n“巴菲特指标”创下新高,全球股市闪烁警示信号\n8月12日,美股三大指数均涨逾1%,投资者对经济前景的乐观程度有所提升。但另一方面,“股神”巴菲特最喜欢的指标——全球市值与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率在8月12日达到177.89%,创下1971年以来新高。\n该指标曾被巴菲特称为“给定时间估值水平的最佳单一度量指标”,一旦比率超过100%,就表示当前市场被高估,而当该指标接近50%(接近美国市场的历史平均水平),即表明当前市场存在低估。在过去的二十年中,该比率在2000年、2008年以及2018年均突破三位数,随后全球股市便迎来了抛售潮。\n巴菲特曾表示,当该指标在互联网泡沫破灭前的几个月中飙升至创纪录的高点时,它“应该是一个非常强烈的警告信号”。而当下美股市场同样受科技股上涨推动,苹果、亚马逊、微软今年股价屡创新高,市值均突破万亿美元。FAAMG约占标普500市值的20%,因此这些公司的估值下调会冲击整个美股市场的估值。\n\n该指标的当前水平也凸显出全球股市高估与经济增长放缓之间的巨大差距。收益于政府和央行积极干预以纾困公司和支撑市场,全球股市上涨;同时,全球经济则因封锁政策受到重创,工厂关闭、旅行禁令及在家办公都对各行业带来严重冲击。\n股市“抛售潮”或冲击美国经济\n另一方面,一旦全球市场上演“抛售潮”,将反过来为经济复苏带来压力。基石宏观(Cornerstone Macro)首席投资策略师迈克尔•坎特罗维茨(Michael Kantrowitz)表示,股市在经济中所占的比重越来越大,股市下跌可能会对美国的经济复苏产生重大影响。\n“在过去的30年里,通过财富效应,我们知道股市是经济的重要组成部分。美联储的政策和降息最终使市场在经济中占据了更大的比重。”他补充说,如果市场下滑对经济产生负面影响,“工具就会减少”,因为美联储“效率降低了”,无法进一步降低利率。\n这位策略师最近在一份题为《股票大到不能倒》的报告中指出: “我们认为,在消费者信心、财富和收入对股市的杠杆作用比以往任何时候都大的背景下,市值与GDP的比率将达到创纪录高点。”他补充说:“股市太大了,不能倒在这里,因为股市大跌可能会给美国政府带来巨额账单。”\n坎特罗威茨同样谈及了“巴菲特指标”,不过他看待这一指标的方式与巴菲特略有不同。他表示:“这不仅仅是一种估值指标,更多的是一种衡量经济对市场杠杆程度的方式”。换句话说,考虑到目前股市相对于经济的规模处于历史最高水平,如果股市出现大幅回调,将对经济产生更大影响。\n不过,该指标也有其不足之处。例如,它将当前股票估值与上个季度的GDP进行比较,并不是所有国家都提供定期、可靠的GDP数据。并且美国近期经济数据,以及美债收益率上升,都在暗示经济前景预期有所好转。如果全球经济持续复苏,有望通过提高分母降低指标数值。\n\n富国银行 (Wells Fargo&Co)股票策略主管克里斯·哈维(Chris Harvey)说:“当下市场很多现象让人想起90年代后期的崩溃。”但他不认为互联网泡沫时期的抛售潮会卷土重来,而是预期未来几个月股市涨幅可能会减弱。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":948567682,"gmtCreate":1595425679546,"gmtModify":1704208934594,"author":{"id":"3523704008471185","authorId":"3523704008471185","name":"安心顺心开心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f387422596847865e3b29f8d7fd427dd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523704008471185","authorIdStr":"3523704008471185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">$陌陌(MOMO)$</a>太衰太衰早S早退市好。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">$陌陌(MOMO)$</a>太衰太衰早S早退市好。","text":"$陌陌(MOMO)$太衰太衰早S早退市好。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/948567682","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":943530620,"gmtCreate":1594649436660,"gmtModify":1704206169257,"author":{"id":"3523704008471185","authorId":"3523704008471185","name":"安心顺心开心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f387422596847865e3b29f8d7fd427dd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523704008471185","authorIdStr":"3523704008471185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">$陌陌(MOMO)$</a>有毛病吧。","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTT\">$趣头条(QTT)$</a>何年马月才能翻身解套,垃圾股。","text":"$趣头条(QTT)$何年马月才能翻身解套,垃圾股。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/955357380","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1774,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":955354141,"gmtCreate":1592314732883,"gmtModify":1704198790776,"author":{"id":"3523704008471185","authorId":"3523704008471185","name":"安心顺心开心","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f387422596847865e3b29f8d7fd427dd","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3523704008471185","authorIdStr":"3523704008471185"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MOMO\">$陌陌(MOMO)$</a>差到评论形容二字“垃圾”","listText":"<a 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10:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“巴菲特指标”闪烁警告信号,全球股市抛售潮要来了吗?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198314863","media":"Wind万得","summary":"据媒体报道,今年以来,美股与经济数据“脱轨”的涨幅引发分析师对泡沫的担忧,而“巴菲特指标”——全球股市市值与GDP比率也创下1971年以来新高,暗示市场面临抛售风险。\n“巴菲特指标”创下新高,全球股市","content":"<p>据媒体报道,今年以来,美股与经济数据“脱轨”的涨幅引发分析师对泡沫的担忧,而“巴菲特指标”——全球股市市值与GDP比率也创下1971年以来新高,暗示市场面临抛售风险。</p>\n<p>“巴菲特指标”创下新高,全球股市闪烁警示信号</p>\n<p>8月12日,美股三大指数均涨逾1%,投资者对经济前景的乐观程度有所提升。但另一方面,“股神”巴菲特最喜欢的指标——全球市值与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率在8月12日达到177.89%,创下1971年以来新高。</p>\n<p>该指标曾被巴菲特称为“给定时间估值水平的最佳单一度量指标”,一旦比率超过100%,就表示当前市场被高估,而当该指标接近50%(接近美国市场的历史平均水平),即表明当前市场存在低估。在过去的二十年中,该比率在2000年、2008年以及2018年均突破三位数,随后全球股市便迎来了抛售潮。</p>\n<p>巴菲特曾表示,当该指标在互联网泡沫破灭前的几个月中飙升至创纪录的高点时,它“应该是一个非常强烈的警告信号”。而当下美股市场同样受科技股上涨推动,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>今年股价屡创新高,市值均突破万亿美元。FAAMG约占标普500市值的20%,因此这些公司的估值下调会冲击整个美股市场的估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2139db29e32c73b6c56a7062f6acce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"351\"></p>\n<p>该指标的当前水平也凸显出全球股市高估与经济增长放缓之间的巨大差距。收益于政府和央行积极干预以纾困公司和支撑市场,全球股市上涨;同时,全球经济则因封锁政策受到重创,工厂关闭、旅行禁令及在家办公都对各行业带来严重冲击。</p>\n<p>股市“抛售潮”或冲击美国经济</p>\n<p>另一方面,一旦全球市场上演“抛售潮”,将反过来为经济复苏带来压力。基石宏观(Cornerstone Macro)首席投资策略师迈克尔•坎特罗维茨(Michael Kantrowitz)表示,股市在经济中所占的比重越来越大,股市下跌可能会对美国的经济复苏产生重大影响。</p>\n<p>“在过去的30年里,通过财富效应,我们知道股市是经济的重要组成部分。美联储的政策和降息最终使市场在经济中占据了更大的比重。”他补充说,如果市场下滑对经济产生负面影响,“工具就会减少”,因为美联储“效率降低了”,无法进一步降低利率。</p>\n<p>这位策略师最近在一份题为《股票大到不能倒》的报告中指出: “我们认为,在消费者信心、财富和收入对股市的杠杆作用比以往任何时候都大的背景下,市值与GDP的比率将达到创纪录高点。”他补充说:“股市太大了,不能倒在这里,因为股市大跌可能会给美国政府带来巨额账单。”</p>\n<p>坎特罗威茨同样谈及了“巴菲特指标”,不过他看待这一指标的方式与巴菲特略有不同。他表示:“这不仅仅是一种估值指标,更多的是一种衡量经济对市场杠杆程度的方式”。换句话说,考虑到目前股市相对于经济的规模处于历史最高水平,如果股市出现大幅回调,将对经济产生更大影响。</p>\n<p>不过,该指标也有其不足之处。例如,它将当前股票估值与上个季度的GDP进行比较,并不是所有国家都提供定期、可靠的GDP数据。并且美国近期经济数据,以及美债收益率上升,都在暗示经济前景预期有所好转。如果全球经济持续复苏,有望通过提高分母降低指标数值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2608a49c818fb227c888a94d67c4ad49\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"429\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a> (Wells Fargo&Co)股票策略主管克里斯·哈维(Chris Harvey)说:“当下市场很多现象让人想起90年代后期的崩溃。”但他不认为互联网泡沫时期的抛售潮会卷土重来,而是预期未来几个月股市涨幅可能会减弱。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“巴菲特指标”闪烁警告信号,全球股市抛售潮要来了吗?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“巴菲特指标”闪烁警告信号,全球股市抛售潮要来了吗?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/99\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/c71e30d1317b4a5cb20a41998e10ac68);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Wind万得 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-08-13 10:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>据媒体报道,今年以来,美股与经济数据“脱轨”的涨幅引发分析师对泡沫的担忧,而“巴菲特指标”——全球股市市值与GDP比率也创下1971年以来新高,暗示市场面临抛售风险。</p>\n<p>“巴菲特指标”创下新高,全球股市闪烁警示信号</p>\n<p>8月12日,美股三大指数均涨逾1%,投资者对经济前景的乐观程度有所提升。但另一方面,“股神”巴菲特最喜欢的指标——全球市值与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率在8月12日达到177.89%,创下1971年以来新高。</p>\n<p>该指标曾被巴菲特称为“给定时间估值水平的最佳单一度量指标”,一旦比率超过100%,就表示当前市场被高估,而当该指标接近50%(接近美国市场的历史平均水平),即表明当前市场存在低估。在过去的二十年中,该比率在2000年、2008年以及2018年均突破三位数,随后全球股市便迎来了抛售潮。</p>\n<p>巴菲特曾表示,当该指标在互联网泡沫破灭前的几个月中飙升至创纪录的高点时,它“应该是一个非常强烈的警告信号”。而当下美股市场同样受科技股上涨推动,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>今年股价屡创新高,市值均突破万亿美元。FAAMG约占标普500市值的20%,因此这些公司的估值下调会冲击整个美股市场的估值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af2139db29e32c73b6c56a7062f6acce\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"351\"></p>\n<p>该指标的当前水平也凸显出全球股市高估与经济增长放缓之间的巨大差距。收益于政府和央行积极干预以纾困公司和支撑市场,全球股市上涨;同时,全球经济则因封锁政策受到重创,工厂关闭、旅行禁令及在家办公都对各行业带来严重冲击。</p>\n<p>股市“抛售潮”或冲击美国经济</p>\n<p>另一方面,一旦全球市场上演“抛售潮”,将反过来为经济复苏带来压力。基石宏观(Cornerstone Macro)首席投资策略师迈克尔•坎特罗维茨(Michael Kantrowitz)表示,股市在经济中所占的比重越来越大,股市下跌可能会对美国的经济复苏产生重大影响。</p>\n<p>“在过去的30年里,通过财富效应,我们知道股市是经济的重要组成部分。美联储的政策和降息最终使市场在经济中占据了更大的比重。”他补充说,如果市场下滑对经济产生负面影响,“工具就会减少”,因为美联储“效率降低了”,无法进一步降低利率。</p>\n<p>这位策略师最近在一份题为《股票大到不能倒》的报告中指出: “我们认为,在消费者信心、财富和收入对股市的杠杆作用比以往任何时候都大的背景下,市值与GDP的比率将达到创纪录高点。”他补充说:“股市太大了,不能倒在这里,因为股市大跌可能会给美国政府带来巨额账单。”</p>\n<p>坎特罗威茨同样谈及了“巴菲特指标”,不过他看待这一指标的方式与巴菲特略有不同。他表示:“这不仅仅是一种估值指标,更多的是一种衡量经济对市场杠杆程度的方式”。换句话说,考虑到目前股市相对于经济的规模处于历史最高水平,如果股市出现大幅回调,将对经济产生更大影响。</p>\n<p>不过,该指标也有其不足之处。例如,它将当前股票估值与上个季度的GDP进行比较,并不是所有国家都提供定期、可靠的GDP数据。并且美国近期经济数据,以及美债收益率上升,都在暗示经济前景预期有所好转。如果全球经济持续复苏,有望通过提高分母降低指标数值。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2608a49c818fb227c888a94d67c4ad49\" tg-width=\"796\" tg-height=\"429\"></p>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a> (Wells Fargo&Co)股票策略主管克里斯·哈维(Chris Harvey)说:“当下市场很多现象让人想起90年代后期的崩溃。”但他不认为互联网泡沫时期的抛售潮会卷土重来,而是预期未来几个月股市涨幅可能会减弱。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32f76f2b955be371110b877bebef37ba","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198314863","content_text":"据媒体报道,今年以来,美股与经济数据“脱轨”的涨幅引发分析师对泡沫的担忧,而“巴菲特指标”——全球股市市值与GDP比率也创下1971年以来新高,暗示市场面临抛售风险。\n“巴菲特指标”创下新高,全球股市闪烁警示信号\n8月12日,美股三大指数均涨逾1%,投资者对经济前景的乐观程度有所提升。但另一方面,“股神”巴菲特最喜欢的指标——全球市值与国内生产总值(GDP)的比率在8月12日达到177.89%,创下1971年以来新高。\n该指标曾被巴菲特称为“给定时间估值水平的最佳单一度量指标”,一旦比率超过100%,就表示当前市场被高估,而当该指标接近50%(接近美国市场的历史平均水平),即表明当前市场存在低估。在过去的二十年中,该比率在2000年、2008年以及2018年均突破三位数,随后全球股市便迎来了抛售潮。\n巴菲特曾表示,当该指标在互联网泡沫破灭前的几个月中飙升至创纪录的高点时,它“应该是一个非常强烈的警告信号”。而当下美股市场同样受科技股上涨推动,苹果、亚马逊、微软今年股价屡创新高,市值均突破万亿美元。FAAMG约占标普500市值的20%,因此这些公司的估值下调会冲击整个美股市场的估值。\n\n该指标的当前水平也凸显出全球股市高估与经济增长放缓之间的巨大差距。收益于政府和央行积极干预以纾困公司和支撑市场,全球股市上涨;同时,全球经济则因封锁政策受到重创,工厂关闭、旅行禁令及在家办公都对各行业带来严重冲击。\n股市“抛售潮”或冲击美国经济\n另一方面,一旦全球市场上演“抛售潮”,将反过来为经济复苏带来压力。基石宏观(Cornerstone Macro)首席投资策略师迈克尔•坎特罗维茨(Michael Kantrowitz)表示,股市在经济中所占的比重越来越大,股市下跌可能会对美国的经济复苏产生重大影响。\n“在过去的30年里,通过财富效应,我们知道股市是经济的重要组成部分。美联储的政策和降息最终使市场在经济中占据了更大的比重。”他补充说,如果市场下滑对经济产生负面影响,“工具就会减少”,因为美联储“效率降低了”,无法进一步降低利率。\n这位策略师最近在一份题为《股票大到不能倒》的报告中指出: “我们认为,在消费者信心、财富和收入对股市的杠杆作用比以往任何时候都大的背景下,市值与GDP的比率将达到创纪录高点。”他补充说:“股市太大了,不能倒在这里,因为股市大跌可能会给美国政府带来巨额账单。”\n坎特罗威茨同样谈及了“巴菲特指标”,不过他看待这一指标的方式与巴菲特略有不同。他表示:“这不仅仅是一种估值指标,更多的是一种衡量经济对市场杠杆程度的方式”。换句话说,考虑到目前股市相对于经济的规模处于历史最高水平,如果股市出现大幅回调,将对经济产生更大影响。\n不过,该指标也有其不足之处。例如,它将当前股票估值与上个季度的GDP进行比较,并不是所有国家都提供定期、可靠的GDP数据。并且美国近期经济数据,以及美债收益率上升,都在暗示经济前景预期有所好转。如果全球经济持续复苏,有望通过提高分母降低指标数值。\n\n富国银行 (Wells Fargo&Co)股票策略主管克里斯·哈维(Chris Harvey)说:“当下市场很多现象让人想起90年代后期的崩溃。”但他不认为互联网泡沫时期的抛售潮会卷土重来,而是预期未来几个月股市涨幅可能会减弱。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}