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Decebt
2021-09-25
因为你是托
为什么我说Amazon是最值得长期投资的股票?
Decebt
2021-08-24
$拼多多(PDD)$
卖菜天团nb
Decebt
2021-07-24
$新东方(EDU)$
两块多的新东方 你瞧不起谁?
Decebt
2021-06-10
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
何必呢。 私有化纳斯达克吧
Decebt
2021-05-26
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
这走势怕不是要金融危机了
Decebt
2021-05-21
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
缩量暴涨 6666
Decebt
2021-05-20
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
纳斯达克私有化的日子要到了 哈哈哈
Decebt
2021-05-20
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
快点啊 多买点高位泡沫股 帮助庄家站岗拉 相信科技股美好
Decebt
2021-05-20
$NQ100指数主连(NQmain)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
越这么拉 越心虚
Decebt
2021-05-20
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
大哥们纷纷套现离场 美股庄家自己把自己拉怕 没人玩 早崩早解脱 越拖事儿越大
Decebt
2021-05-19
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
美联储继续qe 崩 不qe 还是崩 今晚的纪要没有任何卵用 赶紧跑 其他蹦不蹦我不知道 纳斯达克庄家已经拉到自己都怕了
Decebt
2021-05-19
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
美联储什么消息都没用 今晚 见证奇迹
Decebt
2021-05-06
收钱了吧
继续买入五大科技股的六个理由
Decebt
2021-04-28
$波音(BA)$
不亏损能让你200块钱买波音?
Decebt
2021-04-27
$劳斯莱斯(RR..UK)$
@小虎说英股
这就是你推荐的好股票???
Decebt
2021-04-23
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
拜登真乃牛市终结者
Decebt
2021-04-23
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
拜登真乃牛市终结者
Decebt
2021-04-13
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
小秃驴这么拉盘怕不是疯了
Decebt
2021-04-13
$亚马逊(AMZN)$
旁氏诈骗犯20年不分红的小秃驴居然这么拉盘 呵呵
Decebt
2021-04-12
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
突然就没交易量了 腰斩不远了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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00:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为什么我说Amazon是最值得长期投资的股票?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2169687253","media":"一亩三分地海外投资","summary":"Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员,这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票,6年来从未抛售过,到今天来看ROI还不错,Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一,在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家。为什么Azure和GCP都不是AWS的竞争对手呢?因为时间匆忙,就写这么多,其实Amazon还有很多很精彩的业务布局和技术探索值得讨论。","content":"<p>Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员,这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。</p>\n<p>我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票,<b>6年来从未抛售过</b>,到今天来看ROI还不错,Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一,<b>在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家</b>。</p>\n<p>需要声明的是我本人并不在Amazon工作,恰恰相反的是我在Amazon最直接的竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>工作超过四年,<b>在retail和cloud方面有一些浅见可以分享</b>,在此抛砖引玉,请各位大佬斧正 :)</p>\n<h1>一、商业模式</h1>\n<p>对比Google超过90%的收入来自广告,Amazon的商业模式要<b>健康的多,也更多元化</b>。</p>\n<p>除了最基本的营业收入,还包括Marketplace的commission,Amazon的ads业务也试水了一段时间了,我认为这是对Google最大的打击,因为越来越多的人选择直接在Amazon.com上搜索商品,而不是通过Google。</p>\n<p>去年Pichai在国会反垄断质询时,就举了此例将祸水引向Amazon,除此之外还有Amazon最核心和最赚钱的<b>AWS业务</b>,AWS的revenue仅仅只占Amazon总体revenue的10%,<b>却贡献了Amazon总利润的60%+</b>,足可见cash cow的地位。</p>\n<p>而AWS在云计算处于绝对垄断的地位,为什么Azure和GCP包括Alibaba Cloud不会对AWS构成威胁,我后面会详细展开。</p>\n<p>创新业务方面,Amazon的Kindle、Alexa、Go Store都是同行业最大,做的最好的,收入的多元化,让Amazon有着更健康的商业模式。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是,<b>Alibaba选择了一条跟Amazon完全不同的商业模式</b>,Alibaba是C2C,也就是第三方卖家主导,这是中国国情决定的,也是<b>Amazon败走中国的关键因素</b>。</p>\n<p>Alibaba超过90%的收入也是来自广告,在cainiao网络成立之前,阿里是不碰物流的,全部外包给第三方物流公司。</p>\n<p>随着时间的推移,我们发现对物流缺乏管控会大大损伤消费者的体验,所以这些年像天猫超市、天猫国际等等业务,<b>都是自采自销,由cn在各地的仓储统一发货</b>,其实淘宝天猫头部商家也会根据阿里提供的销售预测提前备货到cn本地仓,加快物流的履约。</p>\n<p>这一套体系<b>基本是照搬Amazon Fullfillment</b>,因为Amazon在物流方面已经深耕多年,这个世界上不可能有第二个公司能比Amazon做的更好了</p>\n<h1>二、商业护城河</h1>\n<p>如果今天美团给你一张大额优惠券,你可能就不会用doordash了,但是如果有另一家小的电商网站比Amazon便宜10%,<b>你或许还是会用Amazon</b>,因为你不确定小的网站物流是否高效,商品质量是否有保证,售后服务是否有Amazon这么好,其中还包括对消费者隐私的保护,这就是商业的护城河。</p>\n<p>在我看来,Amazon的北美地区具有极高的商业护城河,让其他的公司根本没办法参与竞争。</p>\n<p>首先是对比实体商店Amazon拥有<b>更低廉的价格</b>,通过prime会员提供次日达、影视、音乐等服务,同时<b>售后退款政策好到令人发指</b>。</p>\n<p>如果你去看Jeff Bezos 1999年的访谈,他就提到Amazon从来不会care竞争对手在做什么,而且一如既往的为客户提供最好的体验,并且Jeff多次提到不会care短期的利益,<b>而且专注长期的利益</b>,Amazon在上市的前八年从来没有盈利过,通过压低价格让竞争对手破产、或者无法进入这个领域。</p>\n<p>同样的套路还适用于AWS的发展,在Google靠着点击广告的印钞机赚的盆满钵满之时,看着AWS微薄的利润,根本提不起兴趣,其实这都是Jeff的障眼法,<b>Amazon凭借优质的用户体验和多年不赚钱的代价构建起了极其宽广的护城河</b>。</p>\n<p>过去的几年你经常看到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>因为Snap的大火而股价大跌,因为TikTok忧心忡忡,但是你基本看不到有什么公司来挑战Amazon,这就是行业的门槛。</p>\n<p>在今天的北美电商市场,<b>已经不可能有公司能挑战Amazon了</b>,甚至都不可能有公司有兴趣进入这个行业,因为根本没什么机会,就单单这套Fullfillment的体系,没有200亿美金的投入就别想弄起来。</p>\n<h1>三、云计算</h1>\n<p>AWS的故事可以说是科技行业这十五年来最精彩和最富有传奇色彩的故事。</p>\n<p>为了解决大促后服务器资源剩余的问题,Amazon的几个天才工程师提出了云计算这个概念,并且深深的影响了这个时代。</p>\n<p>现在绝大部分<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>,包括明星创业公司例如Airbnb、Uber等等都是run on AWS,<b>AWS可能会深刻变革程序员这个行业</b>,未来不再需要很多的程序员,对于中小型公司可能只需要1-2个精通AWS配置的程序员就足够了。</p>\n<p>十几年前一位来自南非的天才工程师,希望能回家工作,因此向公司提出辞呈,<b>Amazon为了挽留这位工程师,决定在南非首都开普敦开设第一间位于非洲的研发中心</b>,最初的员工只有他一个人,就是在这个远离西雅图的office,开发出了AWS最核心的EC2产品,今天的AWS市场份额是剩余第二名到第十名加起来的总和还要多。</p>\n<p>阿里云在中国处于绝对垄断地位,即使是这样,全球的份额却不到AWS的10%,营收和利润就差的更远,并且因为仅仅是local的业务,而AWS面向全球,未来的增长潜力也差出去很多。</p>\n<p>为什么Azure和GCP都不是AWS的竞争对手呢?如果你参看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的财报,微软是通过把office365的收入并表,借此来造成跟AWS差距在减少的假象,其实这是左手倒右手的把戏,并没有什么核心竞争力。</p>\n<p>云计算最核心的是看Iaas层(Infrastructure as a service)的竞争,GCP和Azure根本上不了台面,Google效仿Azure将Google Suite的收入并表,带来股价的大涨,实际上后劲完全不足。</p>\n<p>我记得我在阿里的时候,一位阿里云的高管就跟我说过,\"<b>在云计算这个行业,没有严格意义上的第二名,AWS代表整个行业</b>\",事实上也确实如此。每次AWS reinvent上发布的新产品,总会在1-2年后出现在Azure和阿里云的产品库中。</p>\n<p>就目前来看,微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、阿里云在云计算方面并没有让我眼前一亮的产品,<b>谷歌其实是很有希望的</b>,在AWS Lambda横空出世之前Google的App Engine其实就是serverless的典型代表,可惜执行力差出去太多。</p>\n<p>我曾经对GCP抱有希望,因为Google拥有深厚的技术功底,但是之前因为公司价值观退出国防部百亿美金大单的竞标,和一系列完全不成熟的行为,让我对GCP彻底丧失希望,云计算这块,谷歌不会做很久,不信我们拭目以待。</p>\n<p>因为时间匆忙,就写这么多,其实Amazon还有很多很精彩的业务布局和技术探索值得讨论。</p>\n<p>比如被Jeff认为和AWS同样重要的Prime业务,比如Amazon的无人机送货业务,比如AWS 的marketplace业务,云产品不同于实体商品,这个marketplace很retail marketplace完全不一样。</p>\n<p>商业世界其实很精彩~</p>\n<h2>热评</h2>\n<p><b>@ail:</b> 提个略微不同的看法。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>竞争者还是很多的吧。比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>,target的线上商店,各种厂商官网直销,还有类似的电商比如ebay,新蛋等。</p>\n<p>虽然规模不如亚马逊,但是要说便宜10%也没人买就夸张了。而且贵重物品一般会选择官网买,比如名牌包,苹果电脑这种。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为什么我说Amazon是最值得长期投资的股票?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么我说Amazon是最值得长期投资的股票?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1072018882\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d5ab069f94284023b15ef80bdb915eb5);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">一亩三分地海外投资 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-21 00:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员,这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。</p>\n<p>我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票,<b>6年来从未抛售过</b>,到今天来看ROI还不错,Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一,<b>在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家</b>。</p>\n<p>需要声明的是我本人并不在Amazon工作,恰恰相反的是我在Amazon最直接的竞争对手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>工作超过四年,<b>在retail和cloud方面有一些浅见可以分享</b>,在此抛砖引玉,请各位大佬斧正 :)</p>\n<h1>一、商业模式</h1>\n<p>对比Google超过90%的收入来自广告,Amazon的商业模式要<b>健康的多,也更多元化</b>。</p>\n<p>除了最基本的营业收入,还包括Marketplace的commission,Amazon的ads业务也试水了一段时间了,我认为这是对Google最大的打击,因为越来越多的人选择直接在Amazon.com上搜索商品,而不是通过Google。</p>\n<p>去年Pichai在国会反垄断质询时,就举了此例将祸水引向Amazon,除此之外还有Amazon最核心和最赚钱的<b>AWS业务</b>,AWS的revenue仅仅只占Amazon总体revenue的10%,<b>却贡献了Amazon总利润的60%+</b>,足可见cash cow的地位。</p>\n<p>而AWS在云计算处于绝对垄断的地位,为什么Azure和GCP包括Alibaba Cloud不会对AWS构成威胁,我后面会详细展开。</p>\n<p>创新业务方面,Amazon的Kindle、Alexa、Go Store都是同行业最大,做的最好的,收入的多元化,让Amazon有着更健康的商业模式。</p>\n<p>值得一提的是,<b>Alibaba选择了一条跟Amazon完全不同的商业模式</b>,Alibaba是C2C,也就是第三方卖家主导,这是中国国情决定的,也是<b>Amazon败走中国的关键因素</b>。</p>\n<p>Alibaba超过90%的收入也是来自广告,在cainiao网络成立之前,阿里是不碰物流的,全部外包给第三方物流公司。</p>\n<p>随着时间的推移,我们发现对物流缺乏管控会大大损伤消费者的体验,所以这些年像天猫超市、天猫国际等等业务,<b>都是自采自销,由cn在各地的仓储统一发货</b>,其实淘宝天猫头部商家也会根据阿里提供的销售预测提前备货到cn本地仓,加快物流的履约。</p>\n<p>这一套体系<b>基本是照搬Amazon Fullfillment</b>,因为Amazon在物流方面已经深耕多年,这个世界上不可能有第二个公司能比Amazon做的更好了</p>\n<h1>二、商业护城河</h1>\n<p>如果今天美团给你一张大额优惠券,你可能就不会用doordash了,但是如果有另一家小的电商网站比Amazon便宜10%,<b>你或许还是会用Amazon</b>,因为你不确定小的网站物流是否高效,商品质量是否有保证,售后服务是否有Amazon这么好,其中还包括对消费者隐私的保护,这就是商业的护城河。</p>\n<p>在我看来,Amazon的北美地区具有极高的商业护城河,让其他的公司根本没办法参与竞争。</p>\n<p>首先是对比实体商店Amazon拥有<b>更低廉的价格</b>,通过prime会员提供次日达、影视、音乐等服务,同时<b>售后退款政策好到令人发指</b>。</p>\n<p>如果你去看Jeff Bezos 1999年的访谈,他就提到Amazon从来不会care竞争对手在做什么,而且一如既往的为客户提供最好的体验,并且Jeff多次提到不会care短期的利益,<b>而且专注长期的利益</b>,Amazon在上市的前八年从来没有盈利过,通过压低价格让竞争对手破产、或者无法进入这个领域。</p>\n<p>同样的套路还适用于AWS的发展,在Google靠着点击广告的印钞机赚的盆满钵满之时,看着AWS微薄的利润,根本提不起兴趣,其实这都是Jeff的障眼法,<b>Amazon凭借优质的用户体验和多年不赚钱的代价构建起了极其宽广的护城河</b>。</p>\n<p>过去的几年你经常看到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>因为Snap的大火而股价大跌,因为TikTok忧心忡忡,但是你基本看不到有什么公司来挑战Amazon,这就是行业的门槛。</p>\n<p>在今天的北美电商市场,<b>已经不可能有公司能挑战Amazon了</b>,甚至都不可能有公司有兴趣进入这个行业,因为根本没什么机会,就单单这套Fullfillment的体系,没有200亿美金的投入就别想弄起来。</p>\n<h1>三、云计算</h1>\n<p>AWS的故事可以说是科技行业这十五年来最精彩和最富有传奇色彩的故事。</p>\n<p>为了解决大促后服务器资源剩余的问题,Amazon的几个天才工程师提出了云计算这个概念,并且深深的影响了这个时代。</p>\n<p>现在绝大部分<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/V03.SI\">创业公司</a>,包括明星创业公司例如Airbnb、Uber等等都是run on AWS,<b>AWS可能会深刻变革程序员这个行业</b>,未来不再需要很多的程序员,对于中小型公司可能只需要1-2个精通AWS配置的程序员就足够了。</p>\n<p>十几年前一位来自南非的天才工程师,希望能回家工作,因此向公司提出辞呈,<b>Amazon为了挽留这位工程师,决定在南非首都开普敦开设第一间位于非洲的研发中心</b>,最初的员工只有他一个人,就是在这个远离西雅图的office,开发出了AWS最核心的EC2产品,今天的AWS市场份额是剩余第二名到第十名加起来的总和还要多。</p>\n<p>阿里云在中国处于绝对垄断地位,即使是这样,全球的份额却不到AWS的10%,营收和利润就差的更远,并且因为仅仅是local的业务,而AWS面向全球,未来的增长潜力也差出去很多。</p>\n<p>为什么Azure和GCP都不是AWS的竞争对手呢?如果你参看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>的财报,微软是通过把office365的收入并表,借此来造成跟AWS差距在减少的假象,其实这是左手倒右手的把戏,并没有什么核心竞争力。</p>\n<p>云计算最核心的是看Iaas层(Infrastructure as a service)的竞争,GCP和Azure根本上不了台面,Google效仿Azure将Google Suite的收入并表,带来股价的大涨,实际上后劲完全不足。</p>\n<p>我记得我在阿里的时候,一位阿里云的高管就跟我说过,\"<b>在云计算这个行业,没有严格意义上的第二名,AWS代表整个行业</b>\",事实上也确实如此。每次AWS reinvent上发布的新产品,总会在1-2年后出现在Azure和阿里云的产品库中。</p>\n<p>就目前来看,微软、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>、阿里云在云计算方面并没有让我眼前一亮的产品,<b>谷歌其实是很有希望的</b>,在AWS Lambda横空出世之前Google的App Engine其实就是serverless的典型代表,可惜执行力差出去太多。</p>\n<p>我曾经对GCP抱有希望,因为Google拥有深厚的技术功底,但是之前因为公司价值观退出国防部百亿美金大单的竞标,和一系列完全不成熟的行为,让我对GCP彻底丧失希望,云计算这块,谷歌不会做很久,不信我们拭目以待。</p>\n<p>因为时间匆忙,就写这么多,其实Amazon还有很多很精彩的业务布局和技术探索值得讨论。</p>\n<p>比如被Jeff认为和AWS同样重要的Prime业务,比如Amazon的无人机送货业务,比如AWS 的marketplace业务,云产品不同于实体商品,这个marketplace很retail marketplace完全不一样。</p>\n<p>商业世界其实很精彩~</p>\n<h2>热评</h2>\n<p><b>@ail:</b> 提个略微不同的看法。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>竞争者还是很多的吧。比如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WMT\">沃尔玛</a>,target的线上商店,各种厂商官网直销,还有类似的电商比如ebay,新蛋等。</p>\n<p>虽然规模不如亚马逊,但是要说便宜10%也没人买就夸张了。而且贵重物品一般会选择官网买,比如名牌包,苹果电脑这种。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe94fc940e9c4fcf157bb67f28e9ff8e","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2169687253","content_text":"Microsoft Amazon Apple 和Google是万亿美金俱乐部的成员,这四家公司都是非常伟大和值得投资的公司。\n我从14年开始每年都在持续买进一定数量的Amazon的股票,6年来从未抛售过,到今天来看ROI还不错,Amazon作为四个万亿俱乐部的成员之一,在此次疫情中的表现也要好于其他三家。\n需要声明的是我本人并不在Amazon工作,恰恰相反的是我在Amazon最直接的竞争对手阿里巴巴工作超过四年,在retail和cloud方面有一些浅见可以分享,在此抛砖引玉,请各位大佬斧正 :)\n一、商业模式\n对比Google超过90%的收入来自广告,Amazon的商业模式要健康的多,也更多元化。\n除了最基本的营业收入,还包括Marketplace的commission,Amazon的ads业务也试水了一段时间了,我认为这是对Google最大的打击,因为越来越多的人选择直接在Amazon.com上搜索商品,而不是通过Google。\n去年Pichai在国会反垄断质询时,就举了此例将祸水引向Amazon,除此之外还有Amazon最核心和最赚钱的AWS业务,AWS的revenue仅仅只占Amazon总体revenue的10%,却贡献了Amazon总利润的60%+,足可见cash cow的地位。\n而AWS在云计算处于绝对垄断的地位,为什么Azure和GCP包括Alibaba Cloud不会对AWS构成威胁,我后面会详细展开。\n创新业务方面,Amazon的Kindle、Alexa、Go Store都是同行业最大,做的最好的,收入的多元化,让Amazon有着更健康的商业模式。\n值得一提的是,Alibaba选择了一条跟Amazon完全不同的商业模式,Alibaba是C2C,也就是第三方卖家主导,这是中国国情决定的,也是Amazon败走中国的关键因素。\nAlibaba超过90%的收入也是来自广告,在cainiao网络成立之前,阿里是不碰物流的,全部外包给第三方物流公司。\n随着时间的推移,我们发现对物流缺乏管控会大大损伤消费者的体验,所以这些年像天猫超市、天猫国际等等业务,都是自采自销,由cn在各地的仓储统一发货,其实淘宝天猫头部商家也会根据阿里提供的销售预测提前备货到cn本地仓,加快物流的履约。\n这一套体系基本是照搬Amazon Fullfillment,因为Amazon在物流方面已经深耕多年,这个世界上不可能有第二个公司能比Amazon做的更好了\n二、商业护城河\n如果今天美团给你一张大额优惠券,你可能就不会用doordash了,但是如果有另一家小的电商网站比Amazon便宜10%,你或许还是会用Amazon,因为你不确定小的网站物流是否高效,商品质量是否有保证,售后服务是否有Amazon这么好,其中还包括对消费者隐私的保护,这就是商业的护城河。\n在我看来,Amazon的北美地区具有极高的商业护城河,让其他的公司根本没办法参与竞争。\n首先是对比实体商店Amazon拥有更低廉的价格,通过prime会员提供次日达、影视、音乐等服务,同时售后退款政策好到令人发指。\n如果你去看Jeff Bezos 1999年的访谈,他就提到Amazon从来不会care竞争对手在做什么,而且一如既往的为客户提供最好的体验,并且Jeff多次提到不会care短期的利益,而且专注长期的利益,Amazon在上市的前八年从来没有盈利过,通过压低价格让竞争对手破产、或者无法进入这个领域。\n同样的套路还适用于AWS的发展,在Google靠着点击广告的印钞机赚的盆满钵满之时,看着AWS微薄的利润,根本提不起兴趣,其实这都是Jeff的障眼法,Amazon凭借优质的用户体验和多年不赚钱的代价构建起了极其宽广的护城河。\n过去的几年你经常看到Facebook因为Snap的大火而股价大跌,因为TikTok忧心忡忡,但是你基本看不到有什么公司来挑战Amazon,这就是行业的门槛。\n在今天的北美电商市场,已经不可能有公司能挑战Amazon了,甚至都不可能有公司有兴趣进入这个行业,因为根本没什么机会,就单单这套Fullfillment的体系,没有200亿美金的投入就别想弄起来。\n三、云计算\nAWS的故事可以说是科技行业这十五年来最精彩和最富有传奇色彩的故事。\n为了解决大促后服务器资源剩余的问题,Amazon的几个天才工程师提出了云计算这个概念,并且深深的影响了这个时代。\n现在绝大部分创业公司,包括明星创业公司例如Airbnb、Uber等等都是run on AWS,AWS可能会深刻变革程序员这个行业,未来不再需要很多的程序员,对于中小型公司可能只需要1-2个精通AWS配置的程序员就足够了。\n十几年前一位来自南非的天才工程师,希望能回家工作,因此向公司提出辞呈,Amazon为了挽留这位工程师,决定在南非首都开普敦开设第一间位于非洲的研发中心,最初的员工只有他一个人,就是在这个远离西雅图的office,开发出了AWS最核心的EC2产品,今天的AWS市场份额是剩余第二名到第十名加起来的总和还要多。\n阿里云在中国处于绝对垄断地位,即使是这样,全球的份额却不到AWS的10%,营收和利润就差的更远,并且因为仅仅是local的业务,而AWS面向全球,未来的增长潜力也差出去很多。\n为什么Azure和GCP都不是AWS的竞争对手呢?如果你参看微软的财报,微软是通过把office365的收入并表,借此来造成跟AWS差距在减少的假象,其实这是左手倒右手的把戏,并没有什么核心竞争力。\n云计算最核心的是看Iaas层(Infrastructure as a service)的竞争,GCP和Azure根本上不了台面,Google效仿Azure将Google Suite的收入并表,带来股价的大涨,实际上后劲完全不足。\n我记得我在阿里的时候,一位阿里云的高管就跟我说过,\"在云计算这个行业,没有严格意义上的第二名,AWS代表整个行业\",事实上也确实如此。每次AWS reinvent上发布的新产品,总会在1-2年后出现在Azure和阿里云的产品库中。\n就目前来看,微软、谷歌、阿里云在云计算方面并没有让我眼前一亮的产品,谷歌其实是很有希望的,在AWS Lambda横空出世之前Google的App Engine其实就是serverless的典型代表,可惜执行力差出去太多。\n我曾经对GCP抱有希望,因为Google拥有深厚的技术功底,但是之前因为公司价值观退出国防部百亿美金大单的竞标,和一系列完全不成熟的行为,让我对GCP彻底丧失希望,云计算这块,谷歌不会做很久,不信我们拭目以待。\n因为时间匆忙,就写这么多,其实Amazon还有很多很精彩的业务布局和技术探索值得讨论。\n比如被Jeff认为和AWS同样重要的Prime业务,比如Amazon的无人机送货业务,比如AWS 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见证奇迹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/197353735","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576321601420605","authorId":"3576321601420605","name":"__7776_7779","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22d586a58b2c4ba4ffcc0c248d634ef0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576321601420605","authorIdStr":"3576321601420605"},"content":"今晚大跌,跌势已经形成了。","text":"今晚大跌,跌势已经形成了。","html":"今晚大跌,跌势已经形成了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":105606142,"gmtCreate":1620294503086,"gmtModify":1620294503086,"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"收钱了吧","listText":"收钱了吧","text":"收钱了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105606142","repostId":"1119674600","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1119674600","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"中国最具影响力的财经新闻媒体《财经》携手道琼斯媒体集团,引入百年历史的《巴伦》(Barron's)独家内容,打造涵盖全球金融信息、市场动态、行业分析、公司研究及理财顾问评估的全球投资平台。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"巴伦周刊","id":"1063202233","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab"},"pubTimestamp":1620294413,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1119674600?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-06 17:46","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"继续买入五大科技股的六个理由","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1119674600","media":"巴伦周刊","summary":"编者按:本周以来,道指连涨3天,而纳指则连跌3天,几大科技股近日也跌多涨少。《巴伦周刊》认为,后疫情时代的六个趋势将继续利好五大科技股,投资者还可以继续买入。\n2020年3月美股市场大跌时,笔者曾撰文","content":"<p>编者按:本周以来,道指连涨3天,而纳指则连跌3天,几大科技股近日也跌多涨少。《巴伦周刊》认为,后疫情时代的六个趋势将继续利好五大科技股,投资者还可以继续买入。</p>\n<p>2020年3月美股市场大跌时,笔者曾撰文称市场上出现了一个可以让投资者以低价买入五大科技巨头——Alphabet(GOOGL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>(FB)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT)——股票的好机会。现在,投资者还可以继续买入。</p>\n<p>事实证明,这五家公司在过去一年里的表现超过所有人的预期。上周,五家公司公布了今年第一季度财报,这是去年年初疫情暴发导致停工停产以来的第四份季度财报。今年第一季度,五巨头收入和利润均超出华尔街预期,收入合计增长了41%。过去四个季度,这五家公司的收入合计增长了27%,达到2500亿美元。</p>\n<p>第一季度Facebook收入增长48%,微软增长19%,创下2018年以来的最高水平。当季苹果收入增长54%,Alphabet增长34%,为2012年以来的最高水平。亚马逊收入增长44%,为2011年以来最高水平。</p>\n<p>必须要指出的一点是,骄人的业绩增长已经反应在了这些公司的股价上。自笔者去年撰文以来,这五家公司的股票涨幅不等,介于85%(微软)到135%(苹果)之间。虽然和一年前相比股价已经不再便宜,但笔者认为在科技领域这五只股票是最好的,而且以下六个趋势将持续利好这五只股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955de014f2741b7e7d18c62ac11054d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>云计算持续发展</b>:第一季度,微软云业务Azure的收入增长了50%,谷歌云(Google Cloud)收入增长了46%,市场领先的亚马逊云业务Amazon Web Services的收入增长了32%。这些业务已成为当代的数据中心,没有理由认为这些业务的快速增长势头会放缓。如果这三家公司的云业务是独立的公司,那么三者会是全球最大的三家企业软件公司。</p>\n<p><b>个人电脑卷土重来</b>:过去一年,在家工作/学习/娱乐的趋势推动了个人电脑销售的急剧增长。市场研究及咨询公司Gartner称,今年第一季度个人电脑销售额增长了32%,为二十年来最高水平。</p>\n<p>一些人可能认为疫情过后这类趋势将消退,但越来越多的迹象表明,许多公司的工作方式已经发生了永久性的改变。Shopify(SHOP)总裁哈利·芬克尔施泰因(Harley Finkelstein)上周告诉《巴伦周刊》,他不打算回到Shopify设在渥太华的总部工作了,他还称,Shopify在招聘时可以以“在家工作”吸引那些不考虑搬到加拿大的人。这些趋势会推动笔记本电脑、平板电脑和相关配件的需求不断增长。苹果上周在第二季度业绩指引中称,如果不是Mac和iPad的供应受到限制,第一季度收入会比实际收入高出30亿美元到40亿美元;第一季度来自Mac的收入增长了70%。生产个人电脑及视频游戏配件的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">罗技</a>(LOGI)第一季度收入激增了117%。</p>\n<p><b>电子商务继续快速发展</b>:第一季度亚马逊核心的网上零售业务收入增长41%,第三方卖家服务业务收入增长60%。Shopify第一季度收入同期增长110%,芬克尔施泰因指出,在美国和加拿大,电子商务仅占零售总额的25%,还有很大的增长空间。芬克尔施泰因还表示,在经济重新开放的澳大利亚和新西兰,Shopify的客户没有看到网上销售放缓的迹象。Facebook上周称,该公司的Marketplace业务现在拥有10亿用户。</p>\n<p><b>广告业回归</b>:在疫情暴发之初,由于旅游业和零售业遭受重创,Facebook和Alphabet的广告业务受到了极大冲击。但这种局面已经发生了变化,第一季度Facebook收入比华尔街预期高出近25亿美元,Alphabet收入比华尔街预期高出37亿美元。第一季度亚马逊的“其他”收入类别(几乎全部是广告业务)增长了72%。在经济重新开放之际,零售商、餐馆、航空公司、酒店和其他遭受重创的公司将积极吸引顾客回归。广告业的复苏才刚刚开始。</p>\n<p><b>芯片短缺</b>:苹果并不是唯一一家收入增长因供应瓶颈受到限制的公司。网络硬件公司Juniper首席执行官拉米·拉希姆(Rami Rahim)上周告诉笔者,虽然该公司库存水平足以支撑业绩指引,但交货时间不断延长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>(Seagate)首席财务官詹卢卡·罗马诺(Gianluca Romano)指出,该公司正在通过增加零部件库存以缓解芯片短缺造成的冲击。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>(Western Digital)首席执行官戴夫·戈克勒(Dave Goeckeler)称,为了应对闪存需求的不断增长,该公司每周甚至每天都会上调零售店或分销商销售的闪存的价格,此举推动了第一季度利润的大幅增长。</p>\n<p><b>可能面临的不利因素</b>:有很多。首先,今明两年利润对比可能会有很大差异,一些分析师认为,2022财年苹果收入可能出现负增长,Facebook预计公司今年下半年广告业务收入增速将放缓,并警告说公司面临监管压力以及苹果对跟踪消费者活动的APP进行严厉打击等问题。其次,对科技公司的监管可以说是拜登政府的首要任务,美国劳工部长马蒂·沃尔什(Marty Walsh)上周表示,零工工人应被认定为雇员,这一表态引发了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>(UBER)、Lyft(LYFT)和DoorDash(DASH)股票的抛售。最后,疫情仍然构成严重威胁,目前印度、巴西和其他主要市场的疫情形势依然严峻。但笔者看涨五大科技巨头的立场没有动摇,这五只股票是后疫情时代最好的投资选择。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>继续买入五大科技股的六个理由</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n继续买入五大科技股的六个理由\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1063202233\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd0fd02e1b0644cdbe57505e702dacab);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">巴伦周刊 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-06 17:46</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>编者按:本周以来,道指连涨3天,而纳指则连跌3天,几大科技股近日也跌多涨少。《巴伦周刊》认为,后疫情时代的六个趋势将继续利好五大科技股,投资者还可以继续买入。</p>\n<p>2020年3月美股市场大跌时,笔者曾撰文称市场上出现了一个可以让投资者以低价买入五大科技巨头——Alphabet(GOOGL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>(AMZN)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FB\">Facebook</a>(FB)和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>(MSFT)——股票的好机会。现在,投资者还可以继续买入。</p>\n<p>事实证明,这五家公司在过去一年里的表现超过所有人的预期。上周,五家公司公布了今年第一季度财报,这是去年年初疫情暴发导致停工停产以来的第四份季度财报。今年第一季度,五巨头收入和利润均超出华尔街预期,收入合计增长了41%。过去四个季度,这五家公司的收入合计增长了27%,达到2500亿美元。</p>\n<p>第一季度Facebook收入增长48%,微软增长19%,创下2018年以来的最高水平。当季苹果收入增长54%,Alphabet增长34%,为2012年以来的最高水平。亚马逊收入增长44%,为2011年以来最高水平。</p>\n<p>必须要指出的一点是,骄人的业绩增长已经反应在了这些公司的股价上。自笔者去年撰文以来,这五家公司的股票涨幅不等,介于85%(微软)到135%(苹果)之间。虽然和一年前相比股价已经不再便宜,但笔者认为在科技领域这五只股票是最好的,而且以下六个趋势将持续利好这五只股票。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/955de014f2741b7e7d18c62ac11054d1\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>云计算持续发展</b>:第一季度,微软云业务Azure的收入增长了50%,谷歌云(Google Cloud)收入增长了46%,市场领先的亚马逊云业务Amazon Web Services的收入增长了32%。这些业务已成为当代的数据中心,没有理由认为这些业务的快速增长势头会放缓。如果这三家公司的云业务是独立的公司,那么三者会是全球最大的三家企业软件公司。</p>\n<p><b>个人电脑卷土重来</b>:过去一年,在家工作/学习/娱乐的趋势推动了个人电脑销售的急剧增长。市场研究及咨询公司Gartner称,今年第一季度个人电脑销售额增长了32%,为二十年来最高水平。</p>\n<p>一些人可能认为疫情过后这类趋势将消退,但越来越多的迹象表明,许多公司的工作方式已经发生了永久性的改变。Shopify(SHOP)总裁哈利·芬克尔施泰因(Harley Finkelstein)上周告诉《巴伦周刊》,他不打算回到Shopify设在渥太华的总部工作了,他还称,Shopify在招聘时可以以“在家工作”吸引那些不考虑搬到加拿大的人。这些趋势会推动笔记本电脑、平板电脑和相关配件的需求不断增长。苹果上周在第二季度业绩指引中称,如果不是Mac和iPad的供应受到限制,第一季度收入会比实际收入高出30亿美元到40亿美元;第一季度来自Mac的收入增长了70%。生产个人电脑及视频游戏配件的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LOGI\">罗技</a>(LOGI)第一季度收入激增了117%。</p>\n<p><b>电子商务继续快速发展</b>:第一季度亚马逊核心的网上零售业务收入增长41%,第三方卖家服务业务收入增长60%。Shopify第一季度收入同期增长110%,芬克尔施泰因指出,在美国和加拿大,电子商务仅占零售总额的25%,还有很大的增长空间。芬克尔施泰因还表示,在经济重新开放的澳大利亚和新西兰,Shopify的客户没有看到网上销售放缓的迹象。Facebook上周称,该公司的Marketplace业务现在拥有10亿用户。</p>\n<p><b>广告业回归</b>:在疫情暴发之初,由于旅游业和零售业遭受重创,Facebook和Alphabet的广告业务受到了极大冲击。但这种局面已经发生了变化,第一季度Facebook收入比华尔街预期高出近25亿美元,Alphabet收入比华尔街预期高出37亿美元。第一季度亚马逊的“其他”收入类别(几乎全部是广告业务)增长了72%。在经济重新开放之际,零售商、餐馆、航空公司、酒店和其他遭受重创的公司将积极吸引顾客回归。广告业的复苏才刚刚开始。</p>\n<p><b>芯片短缺</b>:苹果并不是唯一一家收入增长因供应瓶颈受到限制的公司。网络硬件公司Juniper首席执行官拉米·拉希姆(Rami Rahim)上周告诉笔者,虽然该公司库存水平足以支撑业绩指引,但交货时间不断延长。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STX\">希捷科技</a>(Seagate)首席财务官詹卢卡·罗马诺(Gianluca Romano)指出,该公司正在通过增加零部件库存以缓解芯片短缺造成的冲击。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WDC\">西部数据</a>(Western Digital)首席执行官戴夫·戈克勒(Dave Goeckeler)称,为了应对闪存需求的不断增长,该公司每周甚至每天都会上调零售店或分销商销售的闪存的价格,此举推动了第一季度利润的大幅增长。</p>\n<p><b>可能面临的不利因素</b>:有很多。首先,今明两年利润对比可能会有很大差异,一些分析师认为,2022财年苹果收入可能出现负增长,Facebook预计公司今年下半年广告业务收入增速将放缓,并警告说公司面临监管压力以及苹果对跟踪消费者活动的APP进行严厉打击等问题。其次,对科技公司的监管可以说是拜登政府的首要任务,美国劳工部长马蒂·沃尔什(Marty Walsh)上周表示,零工工人应被认定为雇员,这一表态引发了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UBER\">优步</a>(UBER)、Lyft(LYFT)和DoorDash(DASH)股票的抛售。最后,疫情仍然构成严重威胁,目前印度、巴西和其他主要市场的疫情形势依然严峻。但笔者看涨五大科技巨头的立场没有动摇,这五只股票是后疫情时代最好的投资选择。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26758107fccec89857c0a3c7dc5527b6","relate_stocks":{"NFLX":"奈飞","MSFT":"微软","AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊","GOOG":"谷歌","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1119674600","content_text":"编者按:本周以来,道指连涨3天,而纳指则连跌3天,几大科技股近日也跌多涨少。《巴伦周刊》认为,后疫情时代的六个趋势将继续利好五大科技股,投资者还可以继续买入。\n2020年3月美股市场大跌时,笔者曾撰文称市场上出现了一个可以让投资者以低价买入五大科技巨头——Alphabet(GOOGL)、亚马逊(AMZN)、苹果(AAPL)、Facebook(FB)和微软(MSFT)——股票的好机会。现在,投资者还可以继续买入。\n事实证明,这五家公司在过去一年里的表现超过所有人的预期。上周,五家公司公布了今年第一季度财报,这是去年年初疫情暴发导致停工停产以来的第四份季度财报。今年第一季度,五巨头收入和利润均超出华尔街预期,收入合计增长了41%。过去四个季度,这五家公司的收入合计增长了27%,达到2500亿美元。\n第一季度Facebook收入增长48%,微软增长19%,创下2018年以来的最高水平。当季苹果收入增长54%,Alphabet增长34%,为2012年以来的最高水平。亚马逊收入增长44%,为2011年以来最高水平。\n必须要指出的一点是,骄人的业绩增长已经反应在了这些公司的股价上。自笔者去年撰文以来,这五家公司的股票涨幅不等,介于85%(微软)到135%(苹果)之间。虽然和一年前相比股价已经不再便宜,但笔者认为在科技领域这五只股票是最好的,而且以下六个趋势将持续利好这五只股票。\n\n云计算持续发展:第一季度,微软云业务Azure的收入增长了50%,谷歌云(Google Cloud)收入增长了46%,市场领先的亚马逊云业务Amazon Web Services的收入增长了32%。这些业务已成为当代的数据中心,没有理由认为这些业务的快速增长势头会放缓。如果这三家公司的云业务是独立的公司,那么三者会是全球最大的三家企业软件公司。\n个人电脑卷土重来:过去一年,在家工作/学习/娱乐的趋势推动了个人电脑销售的急剧增长。市场研究及咨询公司Gartner称,今年第一季度个人电脑销售额增长了32%,为二十年来最高水平。\n一些人可能认为疫情过后这类趋势将消退,但越来越多的迹象表明,许多公司的工作方式已经发生了永久性的改变。Shopify(SHOP)总裁哈利·芬克尔施泰因(Harley Finkelstein)上周告诉《巴伦周刊》,他不打算回到Shopify设在渥太华的总部工作了,他还称,Shopify在招聘时可以以“在家工作”吸引那些不考虑搬到加拿大的人。这些趋势会推动笔记本电脑、平板电脑和相关配件的需求不断增长。苹果上周在第二季度业绩指引中称,如果不是Mac和iPad的供应受到限制,第一季度收入会比实际收入高出30亿美元到40亿美元;第一季度来自Mac的收入增长了70%。生产个人电脑及视频游戏配件的罗技(LOGI)第一季度收入激增了117%。\n电子商务继续快速发展:第一季度亚马逊核心的网上零售业务收入增长41%,第三方卖家服务业务收入增长60%。Shopify第一季度收入同期增长110%,芬克尔施泰因指出,在美国和加拿大,电子商务仅占零售总额的25%,还有很大的增长空间。芬克尔施泰因还表示,在经济重新开放的澳大利亚和新西兰,Shopify的客户没有看到网上销售放缓的迹象。Facebook上周称,该公司的Marketplace业务现在拥有10亿用户。\n广告业回归:在疫情暴发之初,由于旅游业和零售业遭受重创,Facebook和Alphabet的广告业务受到了极大冲击。但这种局面已经发生了变化,第一季度Facebook收入比华尔街预期高出近25亿美元,Alphabet收入比华尔街预期高出37亿美元。第一季度亚马逊的“其他”收入类别(几乎全部是广告业务)增长了72%。在经济重新开放之际,零售商、餐馆、航空公司、酒店和其他遭受重创的公司将积极吸引顾客回归。广告业的复苏才刚刚开始。\n芯片短缺:苹果并不是唯一一家收入增长因供应瓶颈受到限制的公司。网络硬件公司Juniper首席执行官拉米·拉希姆(Rami Rahim)上周告诉笔者,虽然该公司库存水平足以支撑业绩指引,但交货时间不断延长。希捷科技(Seagate)首席财务官詹卢卡·罗马诺(Gianluca Romano)指出,该公司正在通过增加零部件库存以缓解芯片短缺造成的冲击。西部数据(Western Digital)首席执行官戴夫·戈克勒(Dave Goeckeler)称,为了应对闪存需求的不断增长,该公司每周甚至每天都会上调零售店或分销商销售的闪存的价格,此举推动了第一季度利润的大幅增长。\n可能面临的不利因素:有很多。首先,今明两年利润对比可能会有很大差异,一些分析师认为,2022财年苹果收入可能出现负增长,Facebook预计公司今年下半年广告业务收入增速将放缓,并警告说公司面临监管压力以及苹果对跟踪消费者活动的APP进行严厉打击等问题。其次,对科技公司的监管可以说是拜登政府的首要任务,美国劳工部长马蒂·沃尔什(Marty Walsh)上周表示,零工工人应被认定为雇员,这一表态引发了优步(UBER)、Lyft(LYFT)和DoorDash(DASH)股票的抛售。最后,疫情仍然构成严重威胁,目前印度、巴西和其他主要市场的疫情形势依然严峻。但笔者看涨五大科技巨头的立场没有动摇,这五只股票是后疫情时代最好的投资选择。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":100239058,"gmtCreate":1619616002974,"gmtModify":1619616002974,"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>不亏损能让你200块钱买波音?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">$波音(BA)$</a>不亏损能让你200块钱买波音?","text":"$波音(BA)$不亏损能让你200块钱买波音?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100239058","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2366,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":377156768,"gmtCreate":1619508829854,"gmtModify":1619508829854,"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RR..UK\">$劳斯莱斯(RR..UK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3528966054893519\">@小虎说英股</a>这就是你推荐的好股票???","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RR..UK\">$劳斯莱斯(RR..UK)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3528966054893519\">@小虎说英股</a>这就是你推荐的好股票???","text":"$劳斯莱斯(RR..UK)$@小虎说英股这就是你推荐的好股票???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/377156768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3528966054893519","authorId":"3528966054893519","name":"小虎说英股","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444754ad4cb8cbfaf0dcb4fb2537c79","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3528966054893519","authorIdStr":"3528966054893519"},"content":"是这样:因为合规原因我们不能直接推荐股票。那劳斯莱斯的风险很大、股票的恢复依靠疫情很快结束了以及各个航空公司开始正常运营。去年劳斯莱斯也发新股、稀释股东。如果你真的有胆你可以考虑劳斯莱斯或英国航空母公司 $国际航空集团(IAG.UK)$ 或德国旅行巨头 $TUI AG(TUI.UK)$ 小心!","text":"是这样:因为合规原因我们不能直接推荐股票。那劳斯莱斯的风险很大、股票的恢复依靠疫情很快结束了以及各个航空公司开始正常运营。去年劳斯莱斯也发新股、稀释股东。如果你真的有胆你可以考虑劳斯莱斯或英国航空母公司 $国际航空集团(IAG.UK)$ 或德国旅行巨头 $TUI AG(TUI.UK)$ 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>没事 larry 坚持住。还有浑水呢。你不主动下来 他会帮你下来的","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>没事 larry 坚持住。还有浑水呢。你不主动下来 他会帮你下来的","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$没事 larry 坚持住。还有浑水呢。你不主动下来 他会帮你下来的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":30,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/926945786","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3473216912979031","authorId":"3473216912979031","name":"GeekZhou","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3473216912979031","authorIdStr":"3473216912979031"},"content":"我想看看半年后你还在不在","text":"我想看看半年后你还在不在","html":"我想看看半年后你还在不在"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":957966402,"gmtCreate":1593170723506,"gmtModify":1704201350117,"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>作为gsx的老空军劝各位空军一句,这个股千万不要卖空,空的人越多,股价会涨的越高。全世界都知道gsx虚高,靠这种全市场透明信息不可能赚到钱。 机构和拉狗配合早就把流通股都吃进了,一边借给我们这样的散户空头收利息,等散户空头多了就一把拉升,同时把借出去强行要回来(6月初那波各位的空头都收到强平短信了吧)空头除了互相踩踏毫无办法,机构喝足了散户的血就等下一波!!。这股就是晾着它,不买不卖,没有交易量机构就没有拉它的动力了。股价慢慢就降回来了,真想空,就少量买 虚值期权,赌暴雷。 千万不要正面空 不然就是被 庄家 收割的命!!!求不要增加这个股的知名度了,散户空越多,机构越开心","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>作为gsx的老空军劝各位空军一句,这个股千万不要卖空,空的人越多,股价会涨的越高。全世界都知道gsx虚高,靠这种全市场透明信息不可能赚到钱。 机构和拉狗配合早就把流通股都吃进了,一边借给我们这样的散户空头收利息,等散户空头多了就一把拉升,同时把借出去强行要回来(6月初那波各位的空头都收到强平短信了吧)空头除了互相踩踏毫无办法,机构喝足了散户的血就等下一波!!。这股就是晾着它,不买不卖,没有交易量机构就没有拉它的动力了。股价慢慢就降回来了,真想空,就少量买 虚值期权,赌暴雷。 千万不要正面空 不然就是被 庄家 收割的命!!!求不要增加这个股的知名度了,散户空越多,机构越开心","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$作为gsx的老空军劝各位空军一句,这个股千万不要卖空,空的人越多,股价会涨的越高。全世界都知道gsx虚高,靠这种全市场透明信息不可能赚到钱。 机构和拉狗配合早就把流通股都吃进了,一边借给我们这样的散户空头收利息,等散户空头多了就一把拉升,同时把借出去强行要回来(6月初那波各位的空头都收到强平短信了吧)空头除了互相踩踏毫无办法,机构喝足了散户的血就等下一波!!。这股就是晾着它,不买不卖,没有交易量机构就没有拉它的动力了。股价慢慢就降回来了,真想空,就少量买 虚值期权,赌暴雷。 千万不要正面空 不然就是被 庄家 收割的命!!!求不要增加这个股的知名度了,散户空越多,机构越开心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":19,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/957966402","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3549414952213433","authorId":"3549414952213433","name":"不爱吃土豆倒吐土豆皮的人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549414952213433","authorIdStr":"3549414952213433"},"content":"股价是高了些,维持着吧,年初80","text":"股价是高了些,维持着吧,年初80","html":"股价是高了些,维持着吧,年初80"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927774759,"gmtCreate":1589082605971,"gmtModify":1704179271940,"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>既然你们喜欢喊我朱总 那我就再预测下 下周的走势。逼空上50 韭菜们别灰心到50补仓。 我再听见一次朱宇 我还分析。 奉陪到底<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3525945643966390\">@微信官方运营</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3522696042134664\">@银杏天下</a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>既然你们喜欢喊我朱总 那我就再预测下 下周的走势。逼空上50 韭菜们别灰心到50补仓。 我再听见一次朱宇 我还分析。 奉陪到底<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3525945643966390\">@微信官方运营</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3522696042134664\">@银杏天下</a>","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$既然你们喜欢喊我朱总 那我就再预测下 下周的走势。逼空上50 韭菜们别灰心到50补仓。 我再听见一次朱宇 我还分析。 奉陪到底@微信官方运营@银杏天下","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9cabcaeedb3deffbe5b5c4abac6b6a56","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":29,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927774759","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6509,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3525945643966390","authorId":"3525945643966390","name":"T20210907001","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7a7663d70d9e5ae6d3b7d7e5c45a1ed","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3525945643966390","authorIdStr":"3525945643966390"},"content":"好的 相信你 朱宇总,我已经全仓了","text":"好的 相信你 朱宇总,我已经全仓了","html":"好的 相信你 朱宇总,我已经全仓了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927513085,"gmtCreate":1588927986347,"gmtModify":1704178920522,"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>事情走到现在这一步。建议拉总稍微地位高度控盘平盘 任谁砸就是平。先把这件事过了再说。别再拉了 我空了一百股从46到现在 一步步见证拉总出名被围攻到现在这一步。这一次。拉总如果还是选择爆拉 结果会很不好的。。。。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>事情走到现在这一步。建议拉总稍微地位高度控盘平盘 任谁砸就是平。先把这件事过了再说。别再拉了 我空了一百股从46到现在 一步步见证拉总出名被围攻到现在这一步。这一次。拉总如果还是选择爆拉 结果会很不好的。。。。","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$事情走到现在这一步。建议拉总稍微地位高度控盘平盘 任谁砸就是平。先把这件事过了再说。别再拉了 我空了一百股从46到现在 一步步见证拉总出名被围攻到现在这一步。这一次。拉总如果还是选择爆拉 结果会很不好的。。。。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b7610db3af4eccc81605a226023b3c0","width":"1125","height":"2436"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":29,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927513085","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3529669973185162","authorId":"3529669973185162","name":"神偷小辉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3dc6d09b72b4645c134e8f3b449ac045","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3529669973185162","authorIdStr":"3529669973185162"},"content":"不认同,我觉得吧,就是要继续涨。然后浑水来,sec来,证监会来。真真假假,拉出来就完事了。你以为你缩头就不挨刀?人性本恶,来来来买定离手。赌一把大的","text":"不认同,我觉得吧,就是要继续涨。然后浑水来,sec来,证监会来。真真假假,拉出来就完事了。你以为你缩头就不挨刀?人性本恶,来来来买定离手。赌一把大的","html":"不认同,我觉得吧,就是要继续涨。然后浑水来,sec来,证监会来。真真假假,拉出来就完事了。你以为你缩头就不挨刀?人性本恶,来来来买定离手。赌一把大的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":952490119,"gmtCreate":1592134402231,"gmtModify":1704198136720,"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a> 我这次真心劝仓位1K以下的小散见好就收,gsx的瓜比我们想象的要大,钱总说拉到100可能是气话 但是他拉到55+so easy,这种股 只有一种方法 ,别碰就行 最多留几百股看戏就好。。比起snow求 别不承认 咱们小散就是垃圾 多头也别开心,钱总都被扒拉出来了 现在乱咬的力度很大 真心建议低位平盘 毕竟资方操盘手被暴漏了,,还是那句话 站在舆论中心弄死所有人的后果就是自己不好 还连累公司。。。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a> 我这次真心劝仓位1K以下的小散见好就收,gsx的瓜比我们想象的要大,钱总说拉到100可能是气话 但是他拉到55+so easy,这种股 只有一种方法 ,别碰就行 最多留几百股看戏就好。。比起snow求 别不承认 咱们小散就是垃圾 多头也别开心,钱总都被扒拉出来了 现在乱咬的力度很大 真心建议低位平盘 毕竟资方操盘手被暴漏了,,还是那句话 站在舆论中心弄死所有人的后果就是自己不好 还连累公司。。。","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$ 我这次真心劝仓位1K以下的小散见好就收,gsx的瓜比我们想象的要大,钱总说拉到100可能是气话 但是他拉到55+so easy,这种股 只有一种方法 ,别碰就行 最多留几百股看戏就好。。比起snow求 别不承认 咱们小散就是垃圾 多头也别开心,钱总都被扒拉出来了 现在乱咬的力度很大 真心建议低位平盘 毕竟资方操盘手被暴漏了,,还是那句话 站在舆论中心弄死所有人的后果就是自己不好 还连累公司。。。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":17,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/952490119","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3537827686706280","authorId":"3537827686706280","name":"清风随想","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f2e2973c5a6177310ae2200bdfc052","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3537827686706280","authorIdStr":"3537827686706280"},"content":"你发这样的帖子无外乎想低位横盘然后你快点出局,我也真无语了。","text":"你发这样的帖子无外乎想低位横盘然后你快点出局,我也真无语了。","html":"你发这样的帖子无外乎想低位横盘然后你快点出局,我也真无语了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927714395,"gmtCreate":1589001301917,"gmtModify":1704179186272,"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>果然如我所说又一次发展成为一场闹剧。不论是不是利益相关者都参与进来 这种情况 拉总还不89亿平盘 z最后的结果可能真的发展成为闹剧了。跟谁学的员工们。你们有点良知就别在这里互怼 把我的话给拉总说。他拉过46他知道这样下去的发展结果","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">$跟谁学(GSX)$</a>果然如我所说又一次发展成为一场闹剧。不论是不是利益相关者都参与进来 这种情况 拉总还不89亿平盘 z最后的结果可能真的发展成为闹剧了。跟谁学的员工们。你们有点良知就别在这里互怼 把我的话给拉总说。他拉过46他知道这样下去的发展结果","text":"$跟谁学(GSX)$果然如我所说又一次发展成为一场闹剧。不论是不是利益相关者都参与进来 这种情况 拉总还不89亿平盘 z最后的结果可能真的发展成为闹剧了。跟谁学的员工们。你们有点良知就别在这里互怼 把我的话给拉总说。他拉过46他知道这样下去的发展结果","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":23,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/927714395","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3128,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3539746473020878","authorId":"3539746473020878","name":"Cohort","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3539746473020878","authorIdStr":"3539746473020878"},"content":"你只是为了你的100股,别装的跟救世主似的,咸吃萝卜淡操心","text":"你只是为了你的100股,别装的跟救世主似的,咸吃萝卜淡操心","html":"你只是为了你的100股,别装的跟救世主似的,咸吃萝卜淡操心"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":927242099,"gmtCreate":1588907621511,"gmtModify":1704178854214,"author":{"id":"3522846711766919","authorId":"3522846711766919","name":"Decebt","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cccc0979fdc0c759b3965229e60f67ea","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3522846711766919","authorIdStr":"3522846711766919"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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