百万大叔的个人主页 - 老虎社区

百万大叔

百万大叔

个人简介：价值投资

IP属地：江西

61关注

11粉丝

1主题

0勋章

2020-09-22

我觉得这个逻辑有问题，小米的发展又不完全取决于华为，不否认华为是竞争对手，华为的衰落对小米有益，但毕竟只是期望，不至于20块的股价就把这种期望透支了吧，港股又不是a股，给个题材就上天，不看小米本身的调整以及业务发展，天天盯着华为分析不是舍本逐末么

小米集团-W(01810)吸引力下降，下调至“中性”评级-众人皆想分得一杯羹，但华为局势或已探底

2020-08-27

$小米集团-W(01810)$不容易呀，8.9块的本一路走来，面对多少唱空，多少诱惑，走到现在

2020-07-03

看好

给美团滴滴做外包的趣活更新招股书：第一季净亏2160万

2020-05-22

$小米集团-W(01810)$很多人幼稚的很，国家立法就是为了香港长治久安，长期利好香港，你们以为不立法那些废青就会停手，再闹一下不断来天鹅反应到港股上一样有害无益，这次长痛不如短痛，一次性解决问题，恢复香港的稳定，香港回归那些撤走的资本是什么下场大家不是没看见，这次立法又能超过回归的力度么？资本最喜欢的是稳定预期和有钱赚，什么制度才不会管呢，外资连a股都能买，有啥好跑的

2020-05-22

$恒生指数(HSI)$安全法长期利好香港，没有安全法暴徒会继续找事，又无法独立，只有往恐怖和极端走

2020-05-08

$小米集团-W(01810)$啥情况，为啥？

2020-03-19

$小米集团-W(01810)$天天这种深v，心脏受不了

2020-02-22

还是说都觉得就是计算机

2020-01-15

$小米集团-W(01810)$mark一下，以后不一定见的到这图了

2020-01-15

$小米集团-W(01810)$雷总或最大赢家[财迷]

2019-12-15

哈哈哈哈哈

2019-12-15

哈哈哈哈哈哈哈

2019-12-13

哈哈哈哈哈哈

2019-12-11

$小米集团-W(01810)$能破10么

2019-12-11

$小米集团-W(01810)$感觉主要原因是对手有点惨

2019-12-07

你奶奶男男女女

2019-12-03

哈哈哈哈哈

2019-11-27

哈哈哈哈哈哈

2019-11-22

哈哈哈哈哈哈哈

2019-11-20

哈哈哈哈哈

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15:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米集团-W(01810)吸引力下降，下调至“中性”评级-众人皆想分得一杯羹，但华为局势或已探底","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2069772951","media":"野村东方","summary":"股价已至高位上，升潜力不足。根据我们的观察，小米的股价已经历了以下主要三个阶段：1)2018年下半年上市后至2019年上半年，其智能手机在国内市场占比出现了一定程度的下滑；2)2019年下半年至202","content":"<html><body><article><p>股价已至高位上，升潜力不足。根据我们的观察，小米的股价已经历了以下主要三个阶段：1)2018年下半年上市后至2019年上半年，其智能手机在国内市场占比出现了一定程度的下滑；2)2019年下半年至2020年上半年，小米的国内市场份额逐渐开始得到保障，其股票也在2019年10月正式纳入港股通；3)2020年中期起，受中美科技战及半导体局势变化影响，小米成为华为式微风险下最佳的防守性选择(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/46816\">小米集团</a>：动荡市场中的优质标的)。但近期小米股价的节节攀升已让其价格达到较高的点位(小米集团(1810HK)：把握中美摩擦下的增长契机)，而华为的糟糕局势或已经探底。对预期小米将从华为那里抢占部分手机市场的投资者来说，小米股票的吸引力正在下降，股价上升潜力或有所不足。因此，我们将小米的目标价维持在23港元，但下调其评级至中性。</p><p>市场预期偏高，份额竞争激烈。市场共识与部分投资者一致认为2021-2022年小米的智能手机出货量会达到2亿部以上。但根据我们测算，如要达到2亿部出货量，小米必须满足三个条件：1)华为基本退出中国市场；2)小米抢占的市场份额超过所有主要竞争对手；3)小米海外手机出货量同比两位数增长。目前来看，达成海外出货量对小米而言并不算难，但前两个条件的实现却不容乐观。我们认为华为不太可能彻底在中国市场销声匿迹，而小米与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、Oppo、Vivo争夺市场份额也绝非易事。</p><p>美企或能持续供应非通信芯片。根据外媒报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>可能已经取得了美国政府的批准，可以继续为华为及其他在实体清单上的中国企业供应部分芯片。该消息并不让我们感到意外，事实上许多在实体清单上的中国公司目前依旧能够获得美国芯片供应。根据我们的行业调研，9月15日之后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>仍可以为华为提供服务器CPU，而AMD仅是备选。基于目前的信息，我们判断华为受美国政策影响的业务主要是：1)4G/5G通信芯片；2)非美国企业与华为业务；3)存储芯片。美国政策未来是否有变尚待持续跟踪。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米集团-W(01810)吸引力下降，下调至“中性”评级-众人皆想分得一杯羹，但华为局势或已探底</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米集团-W(01810)吸引力下降，下调至“中性”评级-众人皆想分得一杯羹，但华为局势或已探底\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-22 15:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202009221541557a1d69f9&s=b><strong>野村东方</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>股价已至高位上，升潜力不足。根据我们的观察，小米的股价已经历了以下主要三个阶段：1)2018年下半年上市后至2019年上半年，其智能手机在国内市场占比出现了一定程度的下滑；2)2019年下半年至2020年上半年，小米的国内市场份额逐渐开始得到保障，其股票也在2019年10月正式纳入港股通；3)2020年中期起，受中美科技战及半导体局势变化影响，小米成为华为式微风险下最佳的防守性选择(小米集团：动荡...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202009221541557a1d69f9&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8776326a073f38b9df528ccba693d04","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202009221541557a1d69f9&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2069772951","content_text":"股价已至高位上，升潜力不足。根据我们的观察，小米的股价已经历了以下主要三个阶段：1)2018年下半年上市后至2019年上半年，其智能手机在国内市场占比出现了一定程度的下滑；2)2019年下半年至2020年上半年，小米的国内市场份额逐渐开始得到保障，其股票也在2019年10月正式纳入港股通；3)2020年中期起，受中美科技战及半导体局势变化影响，小米成为华为式微风险下最佳的防守性选择(小米集团：动荡市场中的优质标的)。但近期小米股价的节节攀升已让其价格达到较高的点位(小米集团(1810HK)：把握中美摩擦下的增长契机)，而华为的糟糕局势或已经探底。对预期小米将从华为那里抢占部分手机市场的投资者来说，小米股票的吸引力正在下降，股价上升潜力或有所不足。因此，我们将小米的目标价维持在23港元，但下调其评级至中性。市场预期偏高，份额竞争激烈。市场共识与部分投资者一致认为2021-2022年小米的智能手机出货量会达到2亿部以上。但根据我们测算，如要达到2亿部出货量，小米必须满足三个条件：1)华为基本退出中国市场；2)小米抢占的市场份额超过所有主要竞争对手；3)小米海外手机出货量同比两位数增长。目前来看，达成海外出货量对小米而言并不算难，但前两个条件的实现却不容乐观。我们认为华为不太可能彻底在中国市场销声匿迹，而小米与苹果、三星、Oppo、Vivo争夺市场份额也绝非易事。美企或能持续供应非通信芯片。根据外媒报道，AMD可能已经取得了美国政府的批准，可以继续为华为及其他在实体清单上的中国企业供应部分芯片。该消息并不让我们感到意外，事实上许多在实体清单上的中国公司目前依旧能够获得美国芯片供应。根据我们的行业调研，9月15日之后英特尔仍可以为华为提供服务器CPU，而AMD仅是备选。基于目前的信息，我们判断华为受美国政策影响的业务主要是：1)4G/5G通信芯片；2)非美国企业与华为业务；3)存储芯片。美国政策未来是否有变尚待持续跟踪。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":973892277,"gmtCreate":1598497770299,"gmtModify":1704219158021,"author":{"id":"3520374433814505","authorId":"3520374433814505","name":"百万大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ec5ce0066c777a881379c4a8df10a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>不容易呀，8.9块的本一路走来，面对多少唱空，多少诱惑，走到现在","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>不容易呀，8.9块的本一路走来，面对多少唱空，多少诱惑，走到现在","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$不容易呀，8.9块的本一路走来，面对多少唱空，多少诱惑，走到现在","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/973892277","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1444,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":940861882,"gmtCreate":1593743604846,"gmtModify":1704203102237,"author":{"id":"3520374433814505","authorId":"3520374433814505","name":"百万大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ec5ce0066c777a881379c4a8df10a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好","listText":"看好","text":"看好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/940861882","repostId":"2048895238","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2048895238","pubTimestamp":1593597736,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2048895238?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-07-01 18:02","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"给美团滴滴做外包的趣活更新招股书：第一季净亏2160万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2048895238","media":"新浪财经-自媒体综合","summary":"雷帝网 雷建平 7月1日报道趣活今日更新招股书，此次发行270万股ADS，发行区间为9美元到11美元，以中间价计算，趣活此次募集资金2700万美元。趣活的股票代码为“QH”，预计不久在美国纳斯达克上市","content":"<html><body><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202071/276/w1080h796/20200701/0702-ivrxcey0995187.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>雷帝网 雷建平 7月1日报道</font></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QH\">趣活</a>今日更新招股书，此次发行270万股ADS，发行区间为9美元到11美元，以中间价计算，趣活此次募集资金2700万美元。</p><p>趣活的股票代码为“QH”，预计不久在美国纳斯达克上市。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202071/614/w1080h1134/20200701/b3db-ivrxcey0995190.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>趣活2020年第一季度营收为3.93亿元，较上年同期的3.487亿元增长12.6%；运营亏损为1910万元，较上年同期的运营亏损4900万元收窄61%。</p><p>趣活2020年第一季度净亏损为2160万元，较上年同期的净亏损4640万元收窄53.5%。</p><p>截至2020年3月31日，趣活持有1.3亿元的现金，较2019年12月31日的1.268亿元增长2.9%。</p><p><font><font><font><font>俞阳将</font>有73%的投票权</font></font></font></p><p>IPO前，俞阳（Leslie Yu）持股为15.49%；杨树轶持股为12.58%；Zhen Ba持股为4.86%；Quhuo Holding (BVI) Limited持股为19.55%。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>持股为12.24%，为最大机构投资方；软银中国资本持有11.67%股份，锴明投资持股7.44%。</p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider202071/146/w1080h666/20200701/f057-ivrxcey0995279.jpg/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p>IPO后，<font>俞阳（Leslie Yu）持股为14.7%，有72.98%；</font><font>杨树轶持股为11.92%，有4.7%的投票权；</font><font>Zhen Ba持股为4.61%，有1.82%的投票权。</font></p><p><font>Quhuo Holding (BVI) Limited持股为18.52%，</font><font>百度持股为11.6%，有4.58%的投票权；</font></p><p><font>软银中国资本持有11.06%股份，有4.37%投票权；</font><font>锴明投资持股7.05%，有2.78%的投票权。</font></p><p><font>———————————————</font></p><div><comment></comment></div><p>免责声明：自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体，版权归原作者所有，转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人，不代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>立场。若内容涉及投资建议，仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>给美团滴滴做外包的趣活更新招股书：第一季净亏2160万</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n给美团滴滴做外包的趣活更新招股书：第一季净亏2160万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-07-01 18:02 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkzmt/2020-07-01/doc-iircuyvk1445442.shtml><strong>新浪财经-自媒体综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>雷帝网 雷建平 7月1日报道趣活今日更新招股书，此次发行270万股ADS，发行区间为9美元到11美元，以中间价计算，趣活此次募集资金2700万美元。趣活的股票代码为“QH”，预计不久在美国纳斯达克上市。趣活2020年第一季度营收为3.93亿元，较上年同期的3.487亿元增长12.6%；运营亏损为1910万元，较上年同期的运营亏损4900万元收窄61%。趣活2020年第一季度净亏损为2160万元，较...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkzmt/2020-07-01/doc-iircuyvk1445442.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5e5ef6ded46cdce892f4c5752e90759","relate_stocks":{"QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数","QH":"趣活","03690":"美团-W"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkzmt/2020-07-01/doc-iircuyvk1445442.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2048895238","content_text":"雷帝网 雷建平 7月1日报道趣活今日更新招股书，此次发行270万股ADS，发行区间为9美元到11美元，以中间价计算，趣活此次募集资金2700万美元。趣活的股票代码为“QH”，预计不久在美国纳斯达克上市。趣活2020年第一季度营收为3.93亿元，较上年同期的3.487亿元增长12.6%；运营亏损为1910万元，较上年同期的运营亏损4900万元收窄61%。趣活2020年第一季度净亏损为2160万元，较上年同期的净亏损4640万元收窄53.5%。截至2020年3月31日，趣活持有1.3亿元的现金，较2019年12月31日的1.268亿元增长2.9%。俞阳将有73%的投票权IPO前，俞阳（Leslie Yu）持股为15.49%；杨树轶持股为12.58%；Zhen Ba持股为4.86%；Quhuo Holding (BVI) Limited持股为19.55%。百度持股为12.24%，为最大机构投资方；软银中国资本持有11.67%股份，锴明投资持股7.44%。IPO后，俞阳（Leslie Yu）持股为14.7%，有72.98%；杨树轶持股为11.92%，有4.7%的投票权；Zhen 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>耐心","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$耐心","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/931712291","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":74,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":975561868,"gmtCreate":1600761862554,"gmtModify":1703822374257,"author":{"id":"3520374433814505","authorId":"3520374433814505","name":"百万大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ec5ce0066c777a881379c4a8df10a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我觉得这个逻辑有问题，小米的发展又不完全取决于华为，不否认华为是竞争对手，华为的衰落对小米有益，但毕竟只是期望，不至于20块的股价就把这种期望透支了吧，港股又不是a股，给个题材就上天，不看小米本身的调整以及业务发展，天天盯着华为分析不是舍本逐末么","listText":"我觉得这个逻辑有问题，小米的发展又不完全取决于华为，不否认华为是竞争对手，华为的衰落对小米有益，但毕竟只是期望，不至于20块的股价就把这种期望透支了吧，港股又不是a股，给个题材就上天，不看小米本身的调整以及业务发展，天天盯着华为分析不是舍本逐末么","text":"我觉得这个逻辑有问题，小米的发展又不完全取决于华为，不否认华为是竞争对手，华为的衰落对小米有益，但毕竟只是期望，不至于20块的股价就把这种期望透支了吧，港股又不是a股，给个题材就上天，不看小米本身的调整以及业务发展，天天盯着华为分析不是舍本逐末么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/975561868","repostId":"2069772951","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2069772951","pubTimestamp":1600760171,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2069772951?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-22 15:36","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米集团-W(01810)吸引力下降，下调至“中性”评级-众人皆想分得一杯羹，但华为局势或已探底","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2069772951","media":"野村东方","summary":"股价已至高位上，升潜力不足。根据我们的观察，小米的股价已经历了以下主要三个阶段：1)2018年下半年上市后至2019年上半年，其智能手机在国内市场占比出现了一定程度的下滑；2)2019年下半年至202","content":"<html><body><article><p>股价已至高位上，升潜力不足。根据我们的观察，小米的股价已经历了以下主要三个阶段：1)2018年下半年上市后至2019年上半年，其智能手机在国内市场占比出现了一定程度的下滑；2)2019年下半年至2020年上半年，小米的国内市场份额逐渐开始得到保障，其股票也在2019年10月正式纳入港股通；3)2020年中期起，受中美科技战及半导体局势变化影响，小米成为华为式微风险下最佳的防守性选择(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/46816\">小米集团</a>：动荡市场中的优质标的)。但近期小米股价的节节攀升已让其价格达到较高的点位(小米集团(1810HK)：把握中美摩擦下的增长契机)，而华为的糟糕局势或已经探底。对预期小米将从华为那里抢占部分手机市场的投资者来说，小米股票的吸引力正在下降，股价上升潜力或有所不足。因此，我们将小米的目标价维持在23港元，但下调其评级至中性。</p><p>市场预期偏高，份额竞争激烈。市场共识与部分投资者一致认为2021-2022年小米的智能手机出货量会达到2亿部以上。但根据我们测算，如要达到2亿部出货量，小米必须满足三个条件：1)华为基本退出中国市场；2)小米抢占的市场份额超过所有主要竞争对手；3)小米海外手机出货量同比两位数增长。目前来看，达成海外出货量对小米而言并不算难，但前两个条件的实现却不容乐观。我们认为华为不太可能彻底在中国市场销声匿迹，而小米与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、Oppo、Vivo争夺市场份额也绝非易事。</p><p>美企或能持续供应非通信芯片。根据外媒报道，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>可能已经取得了美国政府的批准，可以继续为华为及其他在实体清单上的中国企业供应部分芯片。该消息并不让我们感到意外，事实上许多在实体清单上的中国公司目前依旧能够获得美国芯片供应。根据我们的行业调研，9月15日之后<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>仍可以为华为提供服务器CPU，而AMD仅是备选。基于目前的信息，我们判断华为受美国政策影响的业务主要是：1)4G/5G通信芯片；2)非美国企业与华为业务；3)存储芯片。美国政策未来是否有变尚待持续跟踪。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米集团-W(01810)吸引力下降，下调至“中性”评级-众人皆想分得一杯羹，但华为局势或已探底</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米集团-W(01810)吸引力下降，下调至“中性”评级-众人皆想分得一杯羹，但华为局势或已探底\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-22 15:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202009221541557a1d69f9&s=b><strong>野村东方</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>股价已至高位上，升潜力不足。根据我们的观察，小米的股价已经历了以下主要三个阶段：1)2018年下半年上市后至2019年上半年，其智能手机在国内市场占比出现了一定程度的下滑；2)2019年下半年至2020年上半年，小米的国内市场份额逐渐开始得到保障，其股票也在2019年10月正式纳入港股通；3)2020年中期起，受中美科技战及半导体局势变化影响，小米成为华为式微风险下最佳的防守性选择(小米集团：动荡...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202009221541557a1d69f9&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8776326a073f38b9df528ccba693d04","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202009221541557a1d69f9&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2069772951","content_text":"股价已至高位上，升潜力不足。根据我们的观察，小米的股价已经历了以下主要三个阶段：1)2018年下半年上市后至2019年上半年，其智能手机在国内市场占比出现了一定程度的下滑；2)2019年下半年至2020年上半年，小米的国内市场份额逐渐开始得到保障，其股票也在2019年10月正式纳入港股通；3)2020年中期起，受中美科技战及半导体局势变化影响，小米成为华为式微风险下最佳的防守性选择(小米集团：动荡市场中的优质标的)。但近期小米股价的节节攀升已让其价格达到较高的点位(小米集团(1810HK)：把握中美摩擦下的增长契机)，而华为的糟糕局势或已经探底。对预期小米将从华为那里抢占部分手机市场的投资者来说，小米股票的吸引力正在下降，股价上升潜力或有所不足。因此，我们将小米的目标价维持在23港元，但下调其评级至中性。市场预期偏高，份额竞争激烈。市场共识与部分投资者一致认为2021-2022年小米的智能手机出货量会达到2亿部以上。但根据我们测算，如要达到2亿部出货量，小米必须满足三个条件：1)华为基本退出中国市场；2)小米抢占的市场份额超过所有主要竞争对手；3)小米海外手机出货量同比两位数增长。目前来看，达成海外出货量对小米而言并不算难，但前两个条件的实现却不容乐观。我们认为华为不太可能彻底在中国市场销声匿迹，而小米与苹果、三星、Oppo、Vivo争夺市场份额也绝非易事。美企或能持续供应非通信芯片。根据外媒报道，AMD可能已经取得了美国政府的批准，可以继续为华为及其他在实体清单上的中国企业供应部分芯片。该消息并不让我们感到意外，事实上许多在实体清单上的中国公司目前依旧能够获得美国芯片供应。根据我们的行业调研，9月15日之后英特尔仍可以为华为提供服务器CPU，而AMD仅是备选。基于目前的信息，我们判断华为受美国政策影响的业务主要是：1)4G/5G通信芯片；2)非美国企业与华为业务；3)存储芯片。美国政策未来是否有变尚待持续跟踪。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":933631505,"gmtCreate":1569821634707,"gmtModify":1704719962779,"author":{"id":"3520374433814505","authorId":"3520374433814505","name":"百万大叔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04ec5ce0066c777a881379c4a8df10a4","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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