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他哥_8297

他哥_8297

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2025-12-18

垃圾简体中文文章

SpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配

2024-10-18

屁话道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多

特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！

2023-01-30

中国哪家公司能降价？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2023-01-14

特斯拉牛逼其他车厂**了其他车厂**了估值低所以特斯拉估值也应该低逻辑一百分

Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote>

2023-01-11

因为特斯拉开放超充了所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了逻辑一百分

抱歉，原内容已删除

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22:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"SpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592904517","media":"智通财经网","summary":"问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>埃隆·马斯克正在向投资者描绘一个由无人驾驶汽车、人形机器人助手甚至登陆火星生活的未来。问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的股票。</p><p>这家电动汽车制造商的股价周二创下年内首个新高，过去四周累计上涨约20%。自4月8日因特朗普政府关税政策引发恐慌而跌至低点以来，该股已飙升111%，跻身标普500指数中表现最佳的20只股票之列。</p><p>此次股价上涨证明了华尔街对马斯克人工智能雄心的信心，尤其是在特斯拉核心汽车业务举步维艰的情况下。<strong>但这同时也推高了特斯拉的估值。目前，特斯拉的市盈率高达214倍(基于未来12个月的预期收益)，在标普500指数成分股中排名第二，仅次于华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)，远高于排名第三的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> Technologies(PLTR.US)的178倍市盈率。</strong></p><p>First New York的投资组合经理兼宏观交易员Vikram Rai表示：“这个估值毫无道理。” 今年早些时候，在马斯克和特朗普在社交媒体上公开决裂后，First New York抛售了其持有的特斯拉股票。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b8a1b96ead6b01240cf9bb1879f76e0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p><p>鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。这家太空探索公司计划进行内部人士股票出售，估值将达到8000亿美元，使其成为全球估值最高的非上市公司。其首次公开募股(IPO)预计也将成为史上规模最大的IPO。</p><p>Horizon Investments分析师Dmitry Shlyapnikov表示：“SpaceX的IPO可能会给特斯拉股票带来一些抛售压力。有些投资者持有特斯拉股票是为了投资埃隆·马斯克的理念，而不是为了这家汽车公司本身。”</p><p>当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。</p><p>50 Park Investments首席执行官Adam Sarhan表示：“<strong>从历史经验来看，当马斯克旗下的一家公司取得重大里程碑式的成就时，往往会提振其他公司的市场情绪。</strong>SpaceX的高调IPO可能会吸引新一波投资者，他们会被马斯克的创新故事所吸引——而这种热情往往会蔓延到特斯拉。”</p><p><strong>分析指出，目前特斯拉的股价正受益于SpaceX带来的热潮，这两家公司的任务是相互关联的，并描绘了这样一个未来图景：特斯拉的Optimus机器人将助力马斯克实现殖民火星的宏伟目标，而SpaceX的星链卫星系统则将增强地球上的车辆互联。</strong></p><p>这些公司的估值也都很高。但特斯拉的怀疑者质疑该公司的基本面是否能够支撑这些估值。特斯拉汽车的销量正在放缓，利润也在下降，与此同时，监管力度加大，消费者在汽车上的支出也在减少。</p><p>对冲基金Telemetry的创始人Thomas Thornton说道：“如果你长期持有特斯拉股票，你肯定赚了钱，这一点毋庸置疑，只是我觉得很奇怪，因为特斯拉的基本面实在太糟糕了。”他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。</p><h2 id=\"id_3064329623\">“加倍押注马斯克”</h2><p><strong>另一方面，乐观主义者则认为特斯拉在自动驾驶和无人驾驶出租车领域拥有巨大的增长潜力。</strong>马斯克的目标是将特斯拉从一家汽车制造商转型为一家人工智能和机器人公司。他在9月份发表于X平台的一篇文章中写道，公司80%的利润最终将来自机器人。</p><p>持有该公司股票的 Zacks Investment Management 客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示：“我们相信，基于特斯拉在自动化领域的创新，未来两到三年内，特斯拉的收益将以 30% 到 35% 的速度增长。”</p><p><strong>如果马斯克能做到这一点，特斯拉的市值就更合理了。如果他做不到，SpaceX 就派上了用场。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。</strong></p><p>Rai表示： “我认为大多数投资者都不愿意继续加倍投资埃隆·马斯克，那风险太大了。”</p><p>Needham分析师Chris Pierce对此持不同意见。他说：“我们认为投资者不会在特斯拉和马斯克之间做出非此即彼的选择，而是会同时支持这两家公司。在特斯拉获利的投资者很可能也想支持马斯克的另一项事业。”</p><p><strong>就目前而言，对投资者来说，特斯拉是押注马斯克愿景的唯一途径。眼前的风险在于其股价估值，目前已接近危险区域。从技术层面来看，本周早些时候，特斯拉股价已接近超买区域。上一次股价触及该区域是在10月初，之后连续七个交易日下跌了10%。</strong></p><p>Mulberry表示：“短期来看，在经历了历史最高点之后，它可能需要一段时间的降温。”</p><p>但对于长期看好马斯克的人来说，估值正如Mulberry所说，只是一个短期问题。然而，在未来几年里，许多人认为无论价格如何，特斯拉都值得买入——甚至可能比SpaceX更值得买入。</p><p>51岁的Mulberry说道：“我完全相信未来某个时候会有商业火星探测任务，但可能在我有生之年看不到。但这是否意味着我现在就应该投资相关股票呢?这需要非常长远的眼光，而机器人出租车和机器人技术的影响可能在未来三到五年内就能显现。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-18 22:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1383364.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>埃隆·马斯克正在向投资者描绘一个由无人驾驶汽车、人形机器人助手甚至登陆火星生活的未来。问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。这家电动汽车制造商的股价周二创下年内首个新高，过去四周累计上涨约20%。自4月8日因特朗普政府关税政策引发恐慌而跌至低点以来，该股已飙升111%，跻身标普500指数中表现最佳的20只股票之列。此次股价上涨证明了华尔街对马斯克人工智能雄心的信心，尤其是在特斯拉...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1383364.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb3952e78c4c7330e4960d16950edf07","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1383364.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2592904517","content_text":"埃隆·马斯克正在向投资者描绘一个由无人驾驶汽车、人形机器人助手甚至登陆火星生活的未来。问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。这家电动汽车制造商的股价周二创下年内首个新高，过去四周累计上涨约20%。自4月8日因特朗普政府关税政策引发恐慌而跌至低点以来，该股已飙升111%，跻身标普500指数中表现最佳的20只股票之列。此次股价上涨证明了华尔街对马斯克人工智能雄心的信心，尤其是在特斯拉核心汽车业务举步维艰的情况下。但这同时也推高了特斯拉的估值。目前，特斯拉的市盈率高达214倍(基于未来12个月的预期收益)，在标普500指数成分股中排名第二，仅次于华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)，远高于排名第三的Palantir Technologies(PLTR.US)的178倍市盈率。First New York的投资组合经理兼宏观交易员Vikram Rai表示：“这个估值毫无道理。” 今年早些时候，在马斯克和特朗普在社交媒体上公开决裂后，First New York抛售了其持有的特斯拉股票。鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。这家太空探索公司计划进行内部人士股票出售，估值将达到8000亿美元，使其成为全球估值最高的非上市公司。其首次公开募股(IPO)预计也将成为史上规模最大的IPO。Horizon Investments分析师Dmitry Shlyapnikov表示：“SpaceX的IPO可能会给特斯拉股票带来一些抛售压力。有些投资者持有特斯拉股票是为了投资埃隆·马斯克的理念，而不是为了这家汽车公司本身。”当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。50 Park Investments首席执行官Adam Sarhan表示：“从历史经验来看，当马斯克旗下的一家公司取得重大里程碑式的成就时，往往会提振其他公司的市场情绪。SpaceX的高调IPO可能会吸引新一波投资者，他们会被马斯克的创新故事所吸引——而这种热情往往会蔓延到特斯拉。”分析指出，目前特斯拉的股价正受益于SpaceX带来的热潮，这两家公司的任务是相互关联的，并描绘了这样一个未来图景：特斯拉的Optimus机器人将助力马斯克实现殖民火星的宏伟目标，而SpaceX的星链卫星系统则将增强地球上的车辆互联。这些公司的估值也都很高。但特斯拉的怀疑者质疑该公司的基本面是否能够支撑这些估值。特斯拉汽车的销量正在放缓，利润也在下降，与此同时，监管力度加大，消费者在汽车上的支出也在减少。对冲基金Telemetry的创始人Thomas Thornton说道：“如果你长期持有特斯拉股票，你肯定赚了钱，这一点毋庸置疑，只是我觉得很奇怪，因为特斯拉的基本面实在太糟糕了。”他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。“加倍押注马斯克”另一方面，乐观主义者则认为特斯拉在自动驾驶和无人驾驶出租车领域拥有巨大的增长潜力。马斯克的目标是将特斯拉从一家汽车制造商转型为一家人工智能和机器人公司。他在9月份发表于X平台的一篇文章中写道，公司80%的利润最终将来自机器人。持有该公司股票的 Zacks Investment Management 客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示：“我们相信，基于特斯拉在自动化领域的创新，未来两到三年内，特斯拉的收益将以 30% 到 35% 的速度增长。”如果马斯克能做到这一点，特斯拉的市值就更合理了。如果他做不到，SpaceX 就派上了用场。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。Rai表示： “我认为大多数投资者都不愿意继续加倍投资埃隆·马斯克，那风险太大了。”Needham分析师Chris Pierce对此持不同意见。他说：“我们认为投资者不会在特斯拉和马斯克之间做出非此即彼的选择，而是会同时支持这两家公司。在特斯拉获利的投资者很可能也想支持马斯克的另一项事业。”就目前而言，对投资者来说，特斯拉是押注马斯克愿景的唯一途径。眼前的风险在于其股价估值，目前已接近危险区域。从技术层面来看，本周早些时候，特斯拉股价已接近超买区域。上一次股价触及该区域是在10月初，之后连续七个交易日下跌了10%。Mulberry表示：“短期来看，在经历了历史最高点之后，它可能需要一段时间的降温。”但对于长期看好马斯克的人来说，估值正如Mulberry所说，只是一个短期问题。然而，在未来几年里，许多人认为无论价格如何，特斯拉都值得买入——甚至可能比SpaceX更值得买入。51岁的Mulberry说道：“我完全相信未来某个时候会有商业火星探测任务，但可能在我有生之年看不到。但这是否意味着我现在就应该投资相关股票呢?这需要非常长远的眼光，而机器人出租车和机器人技术的影响可能在未来三到五年内就能显现。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.96}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361235944796552,"gmtCreate":1729232388369,"gmtModify":1729233708775,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519426235804087","authorIdStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","listText":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","text":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361235944796552","repostId":"2476416677","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2476416677","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1729219326,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2476416677?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-18 10:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2476416677","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析师指出，在大选年，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。","content":"<html><body><p>MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，<strong>这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。</strong></p>\n<p>Hulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。</p>\n<p>就在<strong>两个月前，道指对</strong><strong>哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。</strong>而在<strong>五月份</strong>Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，<strong>民主党获胜的概率被认为只有</strong><strong>58%。</strong>自那时以来概率的增加是由于股市的强势。</p>\n<p>民主党获胜的72%概率远高于目前电子期货市场Election Betting Odds给出的43%。</p>\n<p>那么哪个指标更值得关注？Hulbert认为并没有明确的答案。</p>\n<p><strong>电子期货市场是一个相对较新的现象，因此其历史记录很难在统计上具有显著性。</strong>但是道指的情况并非如此，因为我们有自19世纪末以来30多次总统选举的数据。Hulbert计算得出，截至10月中旬的道指年度回报率与现任党派胜选机会之间的相关性在97%的置信水平上是显著的。</p>\n<p>进入总统大选年时，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。以下几点值得留意：</p>\n<p>若道指截至选举年的10月15日时<strong>涨幅超过10%</strong>，在任党派赢得选举的次数占总数的78%——就像今年一样，今年年初至10月15日，道指上涨了13.4%。</p>\n<p>此外，统计结果显示，当道指<strong>涨幅为正但低于10%时</strong>，在任党派赢得了60%的选票；当<strong>年中</strong><strong>道指回报率为负时</strong>，在任党派的胜选概率下降至42%。</p>\n<p>相信股市是一个好的大选预测指标的理论基础在于，它是经济未来表现的一个敏感领先指标。<strong>人们倾向于用自己的钱包来投票。</strong></p>\n<p>有人可能会认为今年将是个例外，因为尽管美国股市表现强劲，但消费者信心一直疲软。但是，当Hulbert对消费者信心和股市进行了一次“一对一”的统计测试时，<strong>后者在预测总统选举结果方面更胜一筹。</strong></p>\n<p>Hulbert认为，道指对谁将赢得总统大选的预测值得认真对待。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-18 10:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。\nHulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。\n就在两个月前，道指对哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。而在五月份Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，民主党获胜...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.jin10.com/news/24/07/-U77z3gWSESsWgVajJDTa.png/lite","relate_stocks":{"DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2476416677","content_text":"MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。\nHulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。\n就在两个月前，道指对哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。而在五月份Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，民主党获胜的概率被认为只有58%。自那时以来概率的增加是由于股市的强势。\n民主党获胜的72%概率远高于目前电子期货市场Election Betting Odds给出的43%。\n那么哪个指标更值得关注？Hulbert认为并没有明确的答案。\n电子期货市场是一个相对较新的现象，因此其历史记录很难在统计上具有显著性。但是道指的情况并非如此，因为我们有自19世纪末以来30多次总统选举的数据。Hulbert计算得出，截至10月中旬的道指年度回报率与现任党派胜选机会之间的相关性在97%的置信水平上是显著的。\n进入总统大选年时，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。以下几点值得留意：\n若道指截至选举年的10月15日时涨幅超过10%，在任党派赢得选举的次数占总数的78%——就像今年一样，今年年初至10月15日，道指上涨了13.4%。\n此外，统计结果显示，当道指涨幅为正但低于10%时，在任党派赢得了60%的选票；当年中道指回报率为负时，在任党派的胜选概率下降至42%。\n相信股市是一个好的大选预测指标的理论基础在于，它是经济未来表现的一个敏感领先指标。人们倾向于用自己的钱包来投票。\n有人可能会认为今年将是个例外，因为尽管美国股市表现强劲，但消费者信心一直疲软。但是，当Hulbert对消费者信心和股市进行了一次“一对一”的统计测试时，后者在预测总统选举结果方面更胜一筹。\nHulbert认为，道指对谁将赢得总统大选的预测值得认真对待。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622034442,"gmtCreate":1675010390887,"gmtModify":1675042807258,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519426235804087","authorIdStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国哪家公司能降价？","listText":"中国哪家公司能降价？","text":"中国哪家公司能降价？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622034442","repostId":"2307216919","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626928131,"gmtCreate":1673663017823,"gmtModify":1673663321931,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519426235804087","authorIdStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","listText":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","text":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626928131","repostId":"1152054962","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152054962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673667194,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152054962?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-14 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152054962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price c","content":"<p><div> SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摘要特斯拉公司最近的降价应该会降低其预期的营业利润率。美国降价紧随中国市场降价之后。特斯拉股票仍然昂贵，即使在这些情况下……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-14 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摘要特斯拉公司最近的降价应该会降低其预期的营业利润率。美国降价紧随中国市场降价之后。特斯拉股票仍然昂贵，即使在这些情况下……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152054962","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these valuations.Everything’s Gotta GoYesterday, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a surprise announcement that it would be slashing the price of four of its vehicle models. The news comes on the heels of flagging domestic demand for its vehicles, and stronger competition from traditional automakers.The cuts amounted to an average of about 20%, with most of the reductions seemingly aimed at allowing buyers to qualify for the government’s $7,500 tax credit for vehicles under $55,000. Prices on the Model Y Long Range dropped to $52,990 from $65,990, bringing it just under the threshold.The news is certain to make nobody happy—except Tesla bears. Slashing prices will infuriate recent customers who paid the higher price and investors who will now fear that margin compression and overall demand destruction was worse than previously thought. (Not to mention the numerous corporate fleet car customers who famously purchased Tesla electric vehicles (\"EVs\") for their corporate stables at zero discount.)It's not surprising that, as consumer demand slows, a company whose factories the CEO called “gigantic money furnaces” is suddenly in a serious pinch. The news is especially unsurprisingly given Tesla’s recent announcement that it would slash the prices of its vehicles in China as well. As of last week, a Model 3 was 30% cheaper to purchase in China than it was in the U.S. With today’s news, the gap has closed a bit.The China StoryChina has long been the source of bull fuel for investors—the Shanghai factory and access to an seemingly endless supply of Chinese consumers hungry for Tesla products was thought to be the most promising frontier for the company. Tesla and its investors have found out, however, like so many other American companies who have attempted to do business in China, that this is fraught with hazard. From government regulated shutdowns, to government-backed EV makers hell-bent on, well, “adopting” foreign intellectual property, Tesla certainly has its work cut out for it.One interesting part of the Tesla bull narrative is that the company will—seemingly unimpeded—take the Chinese consumer market by storm. This view is, in our view, quite naïve. The Chinese have shown themselves time and time again to be relentless technology copycats, and while traditional car manufacturers in the West were certainly caught flatfooted by Tesla’s early success and have been relatively slow to respond, Chinese car makers have been anything but. In fact, in many cases Chinese car makers are even faster at iterating new models than Tesla. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s overall market share in the Chinese EV market slumped from 13% in 2021 to 8% in the first nine months of 2022. Chinese EV maker BYD Company Limited’s (OTCPK: BYDDF) Seal, for example, might not be as advanced as a Tesla Model 3—but it sells for $8,000 less.The Margins. Always the Margins.Many have made the case, including us, that Tesla’s margins were simply unsustainable. Tesla bulls made much of the fact that the expanding margins were here to stay—that Tesla had cracked the code, and that it would leave traditional auto makers in the dust (a curious thing to claim, especially when Tesla has almost always had a government-sponsored tailwind of one kind or another).Tesla EBITDA Margin vs F & GM(Koyfin)We believed, however, that one way or another, margin compression would come and that the market would find a way to restore order. This price reduction will likely do just that.The cost cuts also come at a difficult time in the competitive landscape. In 2022, almost 6% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. were electric, up from 3% a year before. Of that, Tesla accounted for 65% of those sales, which bulls are sure to rejoice. They might not rejoice, however, to learn that in 2021 Tesla captured 72% of all sales.Traditional car makers are also catching up. Ford Motor Company (F) has executed its EV plan to near perfection, and General Motors (GM), despite some early stumbles with the Chevy Bolt, has gained much ground. Add in the fact that brand loyalty among consumers is quite low when it comes to EVs, and you’ve got a recipe for tough times.What To Do?Tesla will, we are certain, survive this storm. We are not so sure about its lofty stock price. One of the most obvious things Tesla’s board could do in this situation is to initiate the stock buyback that was floated in mid-2022 as an option when the stock was falling.Interestingly, they haven’t yet done so.This could be because the board and company leadership do not believe the stock’s decline is complete, especially with the backdrop of the current competitive landscape. It may also mean that they don’t believe the stock is cheap enough yet, and thus not a good use of capital deployment. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the company announces a new buyback plan in the near future.The Bottom LineThe price cuts in the U.S. come on the heels of price reductions abroad, and they bode ill in the near term for Tesla Inc.’s margins. Combined with the fact that its market share is shrinking in China and not growing as quickly domestically—perhaps even stalling—in the United States, and the fact that traditional manufacturers are catching up, and things are looking grim for Tesla, Inc. in the near term. We believe TSLA stock has further to fall, and investors should be wary of entering at this price point.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":628454075,"gmtCreate":1673432816497,"gmtModify":1673433362808,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3519426235804087","authorIdStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","listText":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","text":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628454075","repostId":"2302042504","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":628454075,"gmtCreate":1673432816497,"gmtModify":1673433362808,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","listText":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","text":"因为特斯拉开放超充了 所以特斯拉在超充就没有优势了 逻辑一百分","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/628454075","repostId":"2302042504","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":512188701500608,"gmtCreate":1766073111036,"gmtModify":1766073152493,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"垃圾简体中文文章","listText":"垃圾简体中文文章","text":"垃圾简体中文文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/512188701500608","repostId":"2592904517","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2592904517","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1766067620,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2592904517?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-12-18 22:20","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"SpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2592904517","media":"智通财经网","summary":"问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>埃隆·马斯克正在向投资者描绘一个由无人驾驶汽车、人形机器人助手甚至登陆火星生活的未来。问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>的股票。</p><p>这家电动汽车制造商的股价周二创下年内首个新高，过去四周累计上涨约20%。自4月8日因特朗普政府关税政策引发恐慌而跌至低点以来，该股已飙升111%，跻身标普500指数中表现最佳的20只股票之列。</p><p>此次股价上涨证明了华尔街对马斯克人工智能雄心的信心，尤其是在特斯拉核心汽车业务举步维艰的情况下。<strong>但这同时也推高了特斯拉的估值。目前，特斯拉的市盈率高达214倍(基于未来12个月的预期收益)，在标普500指数成分股中排名第二，仅次于华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)，远高于排名第三的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">Palantir</a> Technologies(PLTR.US)的178倍市盈率。</strong></p><p>First New York的投资组合经理兼宏观交易员Vikram Rai表示：“这个估值毫无道理。” 今年早些时候，在马斯克和特朗普在社交媒体上公开决裂后，First New York抛售了其持有的特斯拉股票。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b8a1b96ead6b01240cf9bb1879f76e0\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"621\" tg-height=\"589\"/></p><p>鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。这家太空探索公司计划进行内部人士股票出售，估值将达到8000亿美元，使其成为全球估值最高的非上市公司。其首次公开募股(IPO)预计也将成为史上规模最大的IPO。</p><p>Horizon Investments分析师Dmitry Shlyapnikov表示：“SpaceX的IPO可能会给特斯拉股票带来一些抛售压力。有些投资者持有特斯拉股票是为了投资埃隆·马斯克的理念，而不是为了这家汽车公司本身。”</p><p>当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。</p><p>50 Park Investments首席执行官Adam Sarhan表示：“<strong>从历史经验来看，当马斯克旗下的一家公司取得重大里程碑式的成就时，往往会提振其他公司的市场情绪。</strong>SpaceX的高调IPO可能会吸引新一波投资者，他们会被马斯克的创新故事所吸引——而这种热情往往会蔓延到特斯拉。”</p><p><strong>分析指出，目前特斯拉的股价正受益于SpaceX带来的热潮，这两家公司的任务是相互关联的，并描绘了这样一个未来图景：特斯拉的Optimus机器人将助力马斯克实现殖民火星的宏伟目标，而SpaceX的星链卫星系统则将增强地球上的车辆互联。</strong></p><p>这些公司的估值也都很高。但特斯拉的怀疑者质疑该公司的基本面是否能够支撑这些估值。特斯拉汽车的销量正在放缓，利润也在下降，与此同时，监管力度加大，消费者在汽车上的支出也在减少。</p><p>对冲基金Telemetry的创始人Thomas Thornton说道：“如果你长期持有特斯拉股票，你肯定赚了钱，这一点毋庸置疑，只是我觉得很奇怪，因为特斯拉的基本面实在太糟糕了。”他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。</p><h2 id=\"id_3064329623\">“加倍押注马斯克”</h2><p><strong>另一方面，乐观主义者则认为特斯拉在自动驾驶和无人驾驶出租车领域拥有巨大的增长潜力。</strong>马斯克的目标是将特斯拉从一家汽车制造商转型为一家人工智能和机器人公司。他在9月份发表于X平台的一篇文章中写道，公司80%的利润最终将来自机器人。</p><p>持有该公司股票的 Zacks Investment Management 客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示：“我们相信，基于特斯拉在自动化领域的创新，未来两到三年内，特斯拉的收益将以 30% 到 35% 的速度增长。”</p><p><strong>如果马斯克能做到这一点，特斯拉的市值就更合理了。如果他做不到，SpaceX 就派上了用场。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。</strong></p><p>Rai表示： “我认为大多数投资者都不愿意继续加倍投资埃隆·马斯克，那风险太大了。”</p><p>Needham分析师Chris Pierce对此持不同意见。他说：“我们认为投资者不会在特斯拉和马斯克之间做出非此即彼的选择，而是会同时支持这两家公司。在特斯拉获利的投资者很可能也想支持马斯克的另一项事业。”</p><p><strong>就目前而言，对投资者来说，特斯拉是押注马斯克愿景的唯一途径。眼前的风险在于其股价估值，目前已接近危险区域。从技术层面来看，本周早些时候，特斯拉股价已接近超买区域。上一次股价触及该区域是在10月初，之后连续七个交易日下跌了10%。</strong></p><p>Mulberry表示：“短期来看，在经历了历史最高点之后，它可能需要一段时间的降温。”</p><p>但对于长期看好马斯克的人来说，估值正如Mulberry所说，只是一个短期问题。然而，在未来几年里，许多人认为无论价格如何，特斯拉都值得买入——甚至可能比SpaceX更值得买入。</p><p>51岁的Mulberry说道：“我完全相信未来某个时候会有商业火星探测任务，但可能在我有生之年看不到。但这是否意味着我现在就应该投资相关股票呢?这需要非常长远的眼光，而机器人出租车和机器人技术的影响可能在未来三到五年内就能显现。”</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSpaceX上市倒计时，特斯拉“马斯克溢价”面临再分配\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-12-18 22:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1383364.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>埃隆·马斯克正在向投资者描绘一个由无人驾驶汽车、人形机器人助手甚至登陆火星生活的未来。问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。这家电动汽车制造商的股价周二创下年内首个新高，过去四周累计上涨约20%。自4月8日因特朗普政府关税政策引发恐慌而跌至低点以来，该股已飙升111%，跻身标普500指数中表现最佳的20只股票之列。此次股价上涨证明了华尔街对马斯克人工智能雄心的信心，尤其是在特斯拉...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1383364.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb3952e78c4c7330e4960d16950edf07","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1383364.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2592904517","content_text":"埃隆·马斯克正在向投资者描绘一个由无人驾驶汽车、人形机器人助手甚至登陆火星生活的未来。问题是，目前押注他的愿景只有一种途径：购买特斯拉的股票。这家电动汽车制造商的股价周二创下年内首个新高，过去四周累计上涨约20%。自4月8日因特朗普政府关税政策引发恐慌而跌至低点以来，该股已飙升111%，跻身标普500指数中表现最佳的20只股票之列。此次股价上涨证明了华尔街对马斯克人工智能雄心的信心，尤其是在特斯拉核心汽车业务举步维艰的情况下。但这同时也推高了特斯拉的估值。目前，特斯拉的市盈率高达214倍(基于未来12个月的预期收益)，在标普500指数成分股中排名第二，仅次于华纳兄弟探索公司(WBD.US)，远高于排名第三的Palantir Technologies(PLTR.US)的178倍市盈率。First New York的投资组合经理兼宏观交易员Vikram Rai表示：“这个估值毫无道理。” 今年早些时候，在马斯克和特朗普在社交媒体上公开决裂后，First New York抛售了其持有的特斯拉股票。鉴于马斯克的航天公司SpaceX可能明年上市，那些寻求“投资马斯克股票”的股票交易员很快就能找到新的途径。这家太空探索公司计划进行内部人士股票出售，估值将达到8000亿美元，使其成为全球估值最高的非上市公司。其首次公开募股(IPO)预计也将成为史上规模最大的IPO。Horizon Investments分析师Dmitry Shlyapnikov表示：“SpaceX的IPO可能会给特斯拉股票带来一些抛售压力。有些投资者持有特斯拉股票是为了投资埃隆·马斯克的理念，而不是为了这家汽车公司本身。”当然，还有另一种观点认为，SpaceX的公开募股将使马斯克成为关注焦点，从而给特斯拉带来新的发展动力。50 Park Investments首席执行官Adam Sarhan表示：“从历史经验来看，当马斯克旗下的一家公司取得重大里程碑式的成就时，往往会提振其他公司的市场情绪。SpaceX的高调IPO可能会吸引新一波投资者，他们会被马斯克的创新故事所吸引——而这种热情往往会蔓延到特斯拉。”分析指出，目前特斯拉的股价正受益于SpaceX带来的热潮，这两家公司的任务是相互关联的，并描绘了这样一个未来图景：特斯拉的Optimus机器人将助力马斯克实现殖民火星的宏伟目标，而SpaceX的星链卫星系统则将增强地球上的车辆互联。这些公司的估值也都很高。但特斯拉的怀疑者质疑该公司的基本面是否能够支撑这些估值。特斯拉汽车的销量正在放缓，利润也在下降，与此同时，监管力度加大，消费者在汽车上的支出也在减少。对冲基金Telemetry的创始人Thomas Thornton说道：“如果你长期持有特斯拉股票，你肯定赚了钱，这一点毋庸置疑，只是我觉得很奇怪，因为特斯拉的基本面实在太糟糕了。”他本人持有少量特斯拉空头头寸。“加倍押注马斯克”另一方面，乐观主义者则认为特斯拉在自动驾驶和无人驾驶出租车领域拥有巨大的增长潜力。马斯克的目标是将特斯拉从一家汽车制造商转型为一家人工智能和机器人公司。他在9月份发表于X平台的一篇文章中写道，公司80%的利润最终将来自机器人。持有该公司股票的 Zacks Investment Management 客户投资组合经理Brian Mulberry表示：“我们相信，基于特斯拉在自动化领域的创新，未来两到三年内，特斯拉的收益将以 30% 到 35% 的速度增长。”如果马斯克能做到这一点，特斯拉的市值就更合理了。如果他做不到，SpaceX 就派上了用场。SpaceX 的公开交易股票将使投资者有机会拥有马斯克愿景的一部分，而无需承担特斯拉的包袱。Rai表示： “我认为大多数投资者都不愿意继续加倍投资埃隆·马斯克，那风险太大了。”Needham分析师Chris Pierce对此持不同意见。他说：“我们认为投资者不会在特斯拉和马斯克之间做出非此即彼的选择，而是会同时支持这两家公司。在特斯拉获利的投资者很可能也想支持马斯克的另一项事业。”就目前而言，对投资者来说，特斯拉是押注马斯克愿景的唯一途径。眼前的风险在于其股价估值，目前已接近危险区域。从技术层面来看，本周早些时候，特斯拉股价已接近超买区域。上一次股价触及该区域是在10月初，之后连续七个交易日下跌了10%。Mulberry表示：“短期来看，在经历了历史最高点之后，它可能需要一段时间的降温。”但对于长期看好马斯克的人来说，估值正如Mulberry所说，只是一个短期问题。然而，在未来几年里，许多人认为无论价格如何，特斯拉都值得买入——甚至可能比SpaceX更值得买入。51岁的Mulberry说道：“我完全相信未来某个时候会有商业火星探测任务，但可能在我有生之年看不到。但这是否意味着我现在就应该投资相关股票呢?这需要非常长远的眼光，而机器人出租车和机器人技术的影响可能在未来三到五年内就能显现。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1.96}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":361235944796552,"gmtCreate":1729232388369,"gmtModify":1729233708775,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","listText":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","text":"屁话 道指涨幅扩大在市场的人都知道是九月中旬以后，跟trump民调领先同步，显然是在price in trump当选。道指为什么涨幅扩大，那是因为trump概念股cat unh等同步涨幅扩大。cat一卖挖掘机的你说它为啥涨？民主党为了粉饰太平真的是脸都不要了。中文自媒体的水平也就跟哈马斯差不多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/361235944796552","repostId":"2476416677","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2476416677","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1729219326,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2476416677?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-18 10:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特朗普要输？美股预计哈里斯胜选概率为72%！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2476416677","media":"金十数据","summary":"分析师指出，在大选年，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。","content":"<html><body><p>MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，<strong>这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。</strong></p>\n<p>Hulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。</p>\n<p>就在<strong>两个月前，道指对</strong><strong>哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。</strong>而在<strong>五月份</strong>Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，<strong>民主党获胜的概率被认为只有</strong><strong>58%。</strong>自那时以来概率的增加是由于股市的强势。</p>\n<p>民主党获胜的72%概率远高于目前电子期货市场Election Betting Odds给出的43%。</p>\n<p>那么哪个指标更值得关注？Hulbert认为并没有明确的答案。</p>\n<p><strong>电子期货市场是一个相对较新的现象，因此其历史记录很难在统计上具有显著性。</strong>但是道指的情况并非如此，因为我们有自19世纪末以来30多次总统选举的数据。Hulbert计算得出，截至10月中旬的道指年度回报率与现任党派胜选机会之间的相关性在97%的置信水平上是显著的。</p>\n<p>进入总统大选年时，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。以下几点值得留意：</p>\n<p>若道指截至选举年的10月15日时<strong>涨幅超过10%</strong>，在任党派赢得选举的次数占总数的78%——就像今年一样，今年年初至10月15日，道指上涨了13.4%。</p>\n<p>此外，统计结果显示，当道指<strong>涨幅为正但低于10%时</strong>，在任党派赢得了60%的选票；当<strong>年中</strong><strong>道指回报率为负时</strong>，在任党派的胜选概率下降至42%。</p>\n<p>相信股市是一个好的大选预测指标的理论基础在于，它是经济未来表现的一个敏感领先指标。<strong>人们倾向于用自己的钱包来投票。</strong></p>\n<p>有人可能会认为今年将是个例外，因为尽管美国股市表现强劲，但消费者信心一直疲软。但是，当Hulbert对消费者信心和股市进行了一次“一对一”的统计测试时，<strong>后者在预测总统选举结果方面更胜一筹。</strong></p>\n<p>Hulbert认为，道指对谁将赢得总统大选的预测值得认真对待。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。\nHulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。\n就在两个月前，道指对哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。而在五月份Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，民主党获胜...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.jin10.com/news/24/07/-U77z3gWSESsWgVajJDTa.png/lite","relate_stocks":{"DXD":"两倍做空道琼30指数ETF-ProShares","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDOW":"三倍做空道指30ETF-ProShares","DOG":"道指ETF-ProShares做空","DDM":"2倍做多道指ETF-ProShares","UDOW":"三倍做多道指30ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=150660&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2476416677","content_text":"MarketWatch的专栏作家Mark Hulbert表示，截至目前，道指今年的强劲回报率为0.37%，这意味着美国副总统、民主党候选人哈里斯在11月赢得总统大选的概率为72%。\nHulbert指出，道指在美国大选年的表现与现任政党再度胜选的机会之间存在着统计学上的显著相关性。\n就在两个月前，道指对哈里斯获胜的概率赋值为64%。而在五月份Hulbert专门写了一篇关于这个话题的文章时，民主党获胜的概率被认为只有58%。自那时以来概率的增加是由于股市的强势。\n民主党获胜的72%概率远高于目前电子期货市场Election Betting Odds给出的43%。\n那么哪个指标更值得关注？Hulbert认为并没有明确的答案。\n电子期货市场是一个相对较新的现象，因此其历史记录很难在统计上具有显著性。但是道指的情况并非如此，因为我们有自19世纪末以来30多次总统选举的数据。Hulbert计算得出，截至10月中旬的道指年度回报率与现任党派胜选机会之间的相关性在97%的置信水平上是显著的。\n进入总统大选年时，股市年度回报率越高，现任党派获胜的机会就越大。以下几点值得留意：\n若道指截至选举年的10月15日时涨幅超过10%，在任党派赢得选举的次数占总数的78%——就像今年一样，今年年初至10月15日，道指上涨了13.4%。\n此外，统计结果显示，当道指涨幅为正但低于10%时，在任党派赢得了60%的选票；当年中道指回报率为负时，在任党派的胜选概率下降至42%。\n相信股市是一个好的大选预测指标的理论基础在于，它是经济未来表现的一个敏感领先指标。人们倾向于用自己的钱包来投票。\n有人可能会认为今年将是个例外，因为尽管美国股市表现强劲，但消费者信心一直疲软。但是，当Hulbert对消费者信心和股市进行了一次“一对一”的统计测试时，后者在预测总统选举结果方面更胜一筹。\nHulbert认为，道指对谁将赢得总统大选的预测值得认真对待。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,".DJI":0.9,"UDOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":622034442,"gmtCreate":1675010390887,"gmtModify":1675042807258,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"中国哪家公司能降价？","listText":"中国哪家公司能降价？","text":"中国哪家公司能降价？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622034442","repostId":"2307216919","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":626928131,"gmtCreate":1673663017823,"gmtModify":1673663321931,"author":{"id":"3519426235804087","authorId":"3519426235804087","name":"他哥_8297","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3a9264a1f3df3a6ea239c87f02e4bbf","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3519426235804087","idStr":"3519426235804087"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","listText":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","text":"特斯拉牛逼 其他车厂**了 其他车厂**了 估值低 所以特斯拉估值也应该低 逻辑一百分","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/626928131","repostId":"1152054962","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1152054962","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1673667194,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152054962?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-01-14 11:33","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152054962","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price c","content":"<p><div> SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摘要特斯拉公司最近的降价应该会降低其预期的营业利润率。美国降价紧随中国市场降价之后。特斯拉股票仍然昂贵，即使在这些情况下……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"seekingalpha_fund","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla: Are Price Cuts The Canary In The Coal Mine?<blockquote>特斯拉：降价是煤矿里的金丝雀吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2023-01-14 11:33</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these ...</p><p><blockquote><div>摘要特斯拉公司最近的降价应该会降低其预期的营业利润率。美国降价紧随中国市场降价之后。特斯拉股票仍然昂贵，即使在这些情况下……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4569795-tesla-are-price-cuts-the-canary-in-the-coal-mine","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152054962","content_text":"SummaryTesla, Inc.'s recent price cuts should reduce its heralded operating margins.The U.S. price cut comes on the heels of a Chinese market price cut.Tesla stock remains expensive, even at these valuations.Everything’s Gotta GoYesterday, Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) made a surprise announcement that it would be slashing the price of four of its vehicle models. The news comes on the heels of flagging domestic demand for its vehicles, and stronger competition from traditional automakers.The cuts amounted to an average of about 20%, with most of the reductions seemingly aimed at allowing buyers to qualify for the government’s $7,500 tax credit for vehicles under $55,000. Prices on the Model Y Long Range dropped to $52,990 from $65,990, bringing it just under the threshold.The news is certain to make nobody happy—except Tesla bears. Slashing prices will infuriate recent customers who paid the higher price and investors who will now fear that margin compression and overall demand destruction was worse than previously thought. (Not to mention the numerous corporate fleet car customers who famously purchased Tesla electric vehicles (\"EVs\") for their corporate stables at zero discount.)It's not surprising that, as consumer demand slows, a company whose factories the CEO called “gigantic money furnaces” is suddenly in a serious pinch. The news is especially unsurprisingly given Tesla’s recent announcement that it would slash the prices of its vehicles in China as well. As of last week, a Model 3 was 30% cheaper to purchase in China than it was in the U.S. With today’s news, the gap has closed a bit.The China StoryChina has long been the source of bull fuel for investors—the Shanghai factory and access to an seemingly endless supply of Chinese consumers hungry for Tesla products was thought to be the most promising frontier for the company. Tesla and its investors have found out, however, like so many other American companies who have attempted to do business in China, that this is fraught with hazard. From government regulated shutdowns, to government-backed EV makers hell-bent on, well, “adopting” foreign intellectual property, Tesla certainly has its work cut out for it.One interesting part of the Tesla bull narrative is that the company will—seemingly unimpeded—take the Chinese consumer market by storm. This view is, in our view, quite naïve. The Chinese have shown themselves time and time again to be relentless technology copycats, and while traditional car manufacturers in the West were certainly caught flatfooted by Tesla’s early success and have been relatively slow to respond, Chinese car makers have been anything but. In fact, in many cases Chinese car makers are even faster at iterating new models than Tesla. According to the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s overall market share in the Chinese EV market slumped from 13% in 2021 to 8% in the first nine months of 2022. Chinese EV maker BYD Company Limited’s (OTCPK: BYDDF) Seal, for example, might not be as advanced as a Tesla Model 3—but it sells for $8,000 less.The Margins. Always the Margins.Many have made the case, including us, that Tesla’s margins were simply unsustainable. Tesla bulls made much of the fact that the expanding margins were here to stay—that Tesla had cracked the code, and that it would leave traditional auto makers in the dust (a curious thing to claim, especially when Tesla has almost always had a government-sponsored tailwind of one kind or another).Tesla EBITDA Margin vs F & GM(Koyfin)We believed, however, that one way or another, margin compression would come and that the market would find a way to restore order. This price reduction will likely do just that.The cost cuts also come at a difficult time in the competitive landscape. In 2022, almost 6% of all vehicles sold in the U.S. were electric, up from 3% a year before. Of that, Tesla accounted for 65% of those sales, which bulls are sure to rejoice. They might not rejoice, however, to learn that in 2021 Tesla captured 72% of all sales.Traditional car makers are also catching up. Ford Motor Company (F) has executed its EV plan to near perfection, and General Motors (GM), despite some early stumbles with the Chevy Bolt, has gained much ground. Add in the fact that brand loyalty among consumers is quite low when it comes to EVs, and you’ve got a recipe for tough times.What To Do?Tesla will, we are certain, survive this storm. We are not so sure about its lofty stock price. One of the most obvious things Tesla’s board could do in this situation is to initiate the stock buyback that was floated in mid-2022 as an option when the stock was falling.Interestingly, they haven’t yet done so.This could be because the board and company leadership do not believe the stock’s decline is complete, especially with the backdrop of the current competitive landscape. It may also mean that they don’t believe the stock is cheap enough yet, and thus not a good use of capital deployment. Nonetheless, we would not be surprised if the company announces a new buyback plan in the near future.The Bottom LineThe price cuts in the U.S. come on the heels of price reductions abroad, and they bode ill in the near term for Tesla Inc.’s margins. Combined with the fact that its market share is shrinking in China and not growing as quickly domestically—perhaps even stalling—in the United States, and the fact that traditional manufacturers are catching up, and things are looking grim for Tesla, Inc. in the near term. We believe TSLA stock has further to fall, and investors should be wary of entering at this price point.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3249,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}