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根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会(NAR)的数据,美国6月成屋销售总数年化416万户,不及预期的421万户,5月前值为430万户。6月成屋销售环比下跌3.3%,为2022年11月以来最大环比跌幅,不及预期的下跌2.1%,5月前值为下跌0.2%。6月成屋销售同比下跌18.9%,也是2009年6月同期以来的最低迷销售。 图片 由于当前的按揭贷款利率比2021年底高出两倍还多,许多已经锁定低贷款利率的房主不愿出售房屋,因此市场上的房屋供应量低于正常水平。 前美联储主席伯南克7月20日表示,美联储7月料将加息,7月可能是本轮加息周期的最后一次加息。“看起来非常明显,美联储将在下次会议上再加息25个基点。7月份的加息可能是最后一次。” 伯南克预计,随着租金涨势的消退和汽车价格的下跌,未来六个月通胀可以更持久地下跌至3%-3.5%的水平。到明年初,美国通胀有望降到3%、3%略多的水平。再之后,他预计美联储会慢慢来、试图让通胀降至2%的目标。 图片 如上图所示,市场已经完全消化了美联储7月份即将加息25个基点的预期,高利率的情况下,美国未来经济出现放缓着实属于大概率事件,无非区别在于经济到底是软着陆还是硬着陆。 上半年市场的情绪相对比较悲观,一直在预期经济潜在的大衰退,尤其是债券市场的倒挂十分明显(直到现在依然还是倒挂)。结果到了年中发现,这一轮的AI热潮直接把美国的科技股带到新的位","text":"刚刚,我进行了7月份大班的实战点评,分别从“最后一次加息”,“YCC拐点推迟”,“对冲基金指标”,“宏观审慎调节参数“和“四大金刚”等几个方面解读了基本面的一些信息,并结合美联储,伯南克,美元/日元,金银油,美股,人民币,A股等给出了接下来的布局思路。 图片 美国的房地产领域目前呈现冰火两重天的态势,由于美国成屋库存有限,并且房屋建筑商对新房销售提供各种激励措施,买家转至新屋市场,新屋销售强劲,远超成屋。 图片 根据美国全国房地产经纪人协会(NAR)的数据,美国6月成屋销售总数年化416万户,不及预期的421万户,5月前值为430万户。6月成屋销售环比下跌3.3%,为2022年11月以来最大环比跌幅,不及预期的下跌2.1%,5月前值为下跌0.2%。6月成屋销售同比下跌18.9%,也是2009年6月同期以来的最低迷销售。 图片 由于当前的按揭贷款利率比2021年底高出两倍还多,许多已经锁定低贷款利率的房主不愿出售房屋,因此市场上的房屋供应量低于正常水平。 前美联储主席伯南克7月20日表示,美联储7月料将加息,7月可能是本轮加息周期的最后一次加息。“看起来非常明显,美联储将在下次会议上再加息25个基点。7月份的加息可能是最后一次。” 伯南克预计,随着租金涨势的消退和汽车价格的下跌,未来六个月通胀可以更持久地下跌至3%-3.5%的水平。到明年初,美国通胀有望降到3%、3%略多的水平。再之后,他预计美联储会慢慢来、试图让通胀降至2%的目标。 图片 如上图所示,市场已经完全消化了美联储7月份即将加息25个基点的预期,高利率的情况下,美国未来经济出现放缓着实属于大概率事件,无非区别在于经济到底是软着陆还是硬着陆。 上半年市场的情绪相对比较悲观,一直在预期经济潜在的大衰退,尤其是债券市场的倒挂十分明显(直到现在依然还是倒挂)。结果到了年中发现,这一轮的AI热潮直接把美国的科技股带到新的位","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e73a75182ac0a0236db7dd1344c807b","width":"726","height":"712"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2674898cd65c071bc4a6cc5576d6ae85","width":"1080","height":"599"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/edf95ced904999b1c2560683a32bdae3","width":"529","height":"321"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/200555241967736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2865,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000316","authorId":"9000000000000316","name":"丹尼尔加","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2986a3c909439505407d0230a69dcb6","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000316","authorIdStr":"9000000000000316"},"content":"你总是能从普通的新闻里面读出一些不一样的东西","text":"你总是能从普通的新闻里面读出一些不一样的东西","html":"你总是能从普通的新闻里面读出一些不一样的东西"}],"imageCount":5,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":666809059,"gmtCreate":1665531707472,"gmtModify":1665539494376,"author":{"id":"3518147987475135","authorId":"3518147987475135","name":"无聊1973","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87c2c88e0ebb567e150dc96b625c2435","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518147987475135","authorIdStr":"3518147987475135"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666809059","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":258217758859504,"gmtCreate":1704075080823,"gmtModify":1704075082081,"author":{"id":"3518147987475135","authorId":"3518147987475135","name":"无聊1973","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/87c2c88e0ebb567e150dc96b625c2435","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3518147987475135","authorIdStr":"3518147987475135"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"y","listText":"y","text":"y","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/258217758859504","repostId":"1156511468","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156511468","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1704074911,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156511468?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-01 10:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"理想汽车:2023年12月交付50353辆,全年交付超37万辆","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156511468","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"理想汽车公布2023年12月交付数据。2023年12月,理想汽车交付新车50353辆,同比增长137.1%,成功达成月交付五万辆的目标。2023年第四季度共交付131805辆,同比增长184.6%。2023年全年共交付376030辆,同比增长182.2%。截至2023年12月31日,理想汽车累计交付量超过六十万辆,是交付量最高的中国新势力车企。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月1日 ,2023年12月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>交付新车50,353辆,同比增长137.1%,成功达成月交付五万辆的目标。2023年全年共交付37.6万辆,同比增长182.2%;</p><p>理想汽车累计交付量超过六十万辆,是国内交付量最高的新势力。</p><p><strong>李想:理想2024年将挑战80万年销量、10万月销量</strong></p><p> 理想汽车CEO李想发文表示,“2023年目标全部达成:376000、50000、20000、300。2024年挑战更高的目标:800000、100000、30000、2000。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c79db20eb15e7e823673de506790733\" alt=\"\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13e36e95add2d3e54494587c8da544a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"2436\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n理想汽车:2023年12月交付50353辆,全年交付超37万辆 \n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-01-01 10:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月1日 ,2023年12月<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>交付新车50,353辆,同比增长137.1%,成功达成月交付五万辆的目标。2023年全年共交付37.6万辆,同比增长182.2%;</p><p>理想汽车累计交付量超过六十万辆,是国内交付量最高的新势力。</p><p><strong>李想:理想2024年将挑战80万年销量、10万月销量</strong></p><p> 理想汽车CEO李想发文表示,“2023年目标全部达成:376000、50000、20000、300。2024年挑战更高的目标:800000、100000、30000、2000。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c79db20eb15e7e823673de506790733\" alt=\"\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d13e36e95add2d3e54494587c8da544a\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1125\" tg-height=\"2436\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c0ab7d3f5d89bb403311ca0a8e68f8e","relate_stocks":{"BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1587":"次新股","LU1720050803.USD":"安联全方位中国股票基金","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","02015":"理想汽车-W","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1539":"汽车股","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","BK4099":"汽车制造商","EVS.SI":"MSCI China Electric Vehicles and Future Mobility ETF-NikkoAM","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","LU1794554557.SGD":"Allianz All China Equity AT Acc H2-SGD","BK1119":"汽车制造商","BK4555":"新能源车","LI":"理想汽车","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK4588":"碎股","BK4563":"昨日强势股"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156511468","content_text":"1月1日 ,2023年12月理想汽车交付新车50,353辆,同比增长137.1%,成功达成月交付五万辆的目标。2023年全年共交付37.6万辆,同比增长182.2%;理想汽车累计交付量超过六十万辆,是国内交付量最高的新势力。李想:理想2024年将挑战80万年销量、10万月销量 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