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人生海海，不过尔尔。
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一缕灵籁
10-08
$小米集团-W(01810)$
一缕灵籁
2023-05-17
$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$
[微笑]
一缕灵籁
2022-06-22
看到这个事情，我只能用“商场如战场，战场无兄弟”来看待此事件。
马化腾退了，俞敏洪挺着
一缕灵籁
2020-06-03
$正力控股(08283)$
我静悄悄来，就这么静悄悄的走了，再见。
一缕灵籁
2019-04-23
斗鱼怎么，可有看好的朋友，分析一下。
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[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/652361500","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":59,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":683004510,"gmtCreate":1655875532931,"gmtModify":1704863447650,"author":{"id":"3517452499822031","authorId":"3517452499822031","name":"一缕灵籁","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/938d16db1c06b742af93f7bfcb8a67b0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3517452499822031","authorIdStr":"3517452499822031"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看到这个事情，我只能用“商场如战场，战场无兄弟”来看待此事件。","listText":"看到这个事情，我只能用“商场如战场，战场无兄弟”来看待此事件。","text":"看到这个事情，我只能用“商场如战场，战场无兄弟”来看待此事件。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683004510","repostId":"2245948299","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2245948299","pubTimestamp":1655813832,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2245948299?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-06-21 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n马化腾退了，俞敏洪挺着\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-21 20:17 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-06-21/doc-imizmscu8014141.shtml><strong>《财经》杂志</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原创 | 马化腾退了，俞敏洪挺着“利润面前没朋友。”作者 | 刘亚杰“老俞，你是来给我捧场的，还是来砸我场子的？”2016年7月5日，前海华侨城JW万豪酒店，腾讯云峰会结束不久，俞敏洪风尘仆仆赶奔马化腾组的局，见面就迎来了这句话。老俞性格谦和，情商极高，明白此时正是舆论咒骂网络诈骗，呼吁隐私保护的时候，PONY马有压力；况且当年初完成溢价增资，腾讯间接成为新东方在线的股东，自当奉以宽慰。那次握手，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-06-21/doc-imizmscu8014141.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK4526":"热门中概股","BK1556":"内地教育股","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","BK1586":"云计算","BK4510":"在线教育","BK1095":"互动媒体与服务","BK1228":"教育服务","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR","BK1502":"双十一","BK1608":"元宇宙概念","BK1596":"K12教育","BK4563":"昨日强势股","BK1591":"就地过年概念","BK1519":"在线教育","09901":"新东方-S","BK1517":"云办公","EDU":"新东方","BK1531":"手游股","BK4531":"中概回港概念","BK4204":"教育服务","BK1516":"腾讯概念","BK1589":"北水核心资产","01797":"东方甄选","BK4506":"内地教育股","BK1588":"回港中概股","00700":"腾讯控股","BK4509":"腾讯概念","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK1526":"科网股"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-06-21/doc-imizmscu8014141.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2245948299","content_text":"原创 | 马化腾退了，俞敏洪挺着“利润面前没朋友。”作者 | 刘亚杰“老俞，你是来给我捧场的，还是来砸我场子的？”2016年7月5日，前海华侨城JW万豪酒店，腾讯云峰会结束不久，俞敏洪风尘仆仆赶奔马化腾组的局，见面就迎来了这句话。老俞性格谦和，情商极高，明白此时正是舆论咒骂网络诈骗，呼吁隐私保护的时候，PONY马有压力；况且当年初完成溢价增资，腾讯间接成为新东方在线的股东，自当奉以宽慰。那次握手，PONY马几分“友情”，几分“财情”，老俞算不清，也不想算。他直当眼前人就是朋友，何必算得那么清晰。太刻意了，朋友就没得做了。一晃六年过去了，故事变了味儿。正如《我们都猜错了60岁的俞敏洪》的观点，新东方在线的股价到达高位。还没站稳当，老俞自我挑战的故事还没讲完，PONY马就急匆匆地套现离场，些许薄面也不讲。本月17日（周五）与20日（周一）两次减持，腾讯系减持新东方在线，共套现7.19亿港元，扣除成本后4亿港元获利让PONY马美滋滋；可新东方在线20日单日股价大幅回撤32%。利益马化腾带走，风险俞敏洪来扛，利润面前没朋友。回头想，老俞可能没把账算清楚：腾讯的驾临，不过是在其资本扩张大道上，需要一枚面向教培的棋子。只要新东方在线能赚钱，PONY马没理由放跑它。彼时，感情成了生意的锦上添花。如今棋盘被打翻了，教培的棋子落地，在风险不定的环境中走跳，连老俞自己都没把握的事，凭什么要求PONY马一道而去？只是地主家也没了余粮，雪中送炭的故事怎滴还有人讲？就是送，也要把账算在明面。人们时常感叹，情义与生意从来不能两全；人们时常忽略，这根本不是一个困难的抉择。壹|马化腾的账本马化腾的内心里，新东方在线和俞敏洪是特别的存在。曾有机构统计，马化腾十分看好人工智能、出行、短视频、大健康领域，向来出手从来阔绰。腾讯持股11.97%的快手，一年可以亏掉780.77亿元的时候，教培行业投入再高都显得容易接受。在这些项目中，新东方在线投资额度并不算高，当然成长速度也不是最快。不过唯一的亮点，就是它足够早，打响了腾讯布局教培行业的发令枪。如此标志性意义，马化腾岂能随便放弃？无论何时，总要给旗帜一个空间，何况成本也不高。综合第三方数据，每年腾讯对外投资的额度超过千亿已是常态。企查查数据显示，截至2021年底腾讯全年对外投资共计212次，额度达到1358.19亿元。这样算来，腾讯给新东方在线的投资，不足全年对外投资额度的5‰，放到1237.88亿元的净利润（2021年）中同样微不足道。多一个不多，留着吧，还能亏到哪去呢？自从2020年7月22日触及43.45港元/股高位后，新东方在线股价震荡下滑，马化腾却始终坚持持有。即使2021年7月24日“双减”政策发布，教培行业生存逻辑被彻底击穿，当天3.94港元/股的收盘价已经低于2016年0.5627美元（约4.42港元）的认购价被套牢时，一切都没有改变。奈何根据腾讯控股2022年第一季度财报显示，以投资为主的“其他收益净额”为131亿元，同比减少32.8%，这还是在减持Sea Limit股权盈利185亿元的基础上实现。换言之，马化腾要考虑的，已经不是新东方在线这一个项目是否赚钱的问题，而是整个投资大盘子已经不能带来稳定收入。地主家都没了余粮，也就到了收账的时候。腾讯投资收益下滑在进入2022年后有数据佐证，已经完整错过2021年11月，新东方在线公布转型农产品线上直播业务时带来的行情，退场成本太高，于是马化腾只能继续等。好在转折没有让他等太久，“双语带货”的惊艳亮相，一度让新东方在线的股价触及最高点的33.15港元/股——高出马化腾内心底线几个量级。现在退场，腾讯既能兑现曾经投入换来的收益，又无需继续承担长期持有股权带来的风险，一箭双雕的事儿，过了这村还有店吗？于是6月15日出售3561.25万股套现3.42亿港元，6月16日出售3899.14万股套现3.77亿港元，1.58%的持股比例已经低于俞敏洪持有的2.72%。迅雷不及掩耳，干净利落，马化腾逃离新东方在线的是非之地。贰|俞敏洪的无奈“如果我口袋里有1000元给大家分的话，我觉得我自己留100元就差不多了。”这两天，俞敏洪曾在文章中有这样的自省。贪婪不是他人生的关键词，略带佛系的忍让与释放，让更多人相信马化腾弃船而去的时候，他会选择接受。可是坦率的说，这有点难。在这场分手中，马化腾只要考虑“是否接受投资失败”的一个问题即可，俞敏洪则不然：从6月6日到16日的10天里，新东方在线的股价涨了8倍，该如何延续上升势头？在“中关村周杰伦”董宇辉成为头牌主播后，“黄庄蔡依林”、“五道口张韶涵”、“北四环潘玮柏”该到哪里去找？享受美好的销售体验，还要有优质的售后服务，整个体系如何完善优化？一条农产品的赛道能不能盛放不下新东方在线的大理想，下一个方向在哪里？“双语”、“文学”、“哲学”、“故事会”……这些手牌已经放到牌桌上，后面还能创新些什么？……现在的新东方在线，一切都很脆弱。一个不小心，好不容易换来的收获就会倾家荡产。一些容易解决的，俞敏洪已经有所安排。比如招人，成熟的“农产品主播”，工资已经提高到2万元以上，后台运维人员相继水涨船高，故事有了新的开端。可以想见，俞敏洪会将现有成功经验，在农产品直播的小圈子内快速复制，后续还会拓展到其他领域。趁着还在舆论的风口，将交易额从1000万元提升到更高层级。已经见到了翻身的希望，正是需要支持的时候，正是需要人力和财力大量补充的关键时候，曾经的战略股东们却抽身而去，场面实在尴尬。公开数据显示，包括摩根士丹利、摩根大通、汇丰银行、花旗银行等外资机构，也在反击战打响的时候，与马化腾做出了相同的选择。羊群效应的出现，视为必然。资方走了，现金流少了，可是要做的事情越来越多，这才是俞敏洪的烦恼。对比不久前，腾讯旗下各大信息平台满屏报道新东方在线崛地而起，研究机构全新发布直播带货扶摇直上的交易增量，以及不同媒体不断刷屏的董宇辉专访。一边是不断渲染新东方在线前景无限，一边是实打实的高位清仓套现……故事有了另一个猜想：这是一次预谋已久的资本大逃亡吗？“圣人论迹不论心，论心世上无完人。”这是很多人相信马化腾跑了，为俞敏洪惋惜的理由。当然，事实只能让人们心生疑窦，很难找到最终的答案。只是在俞敏洪的内心，早该料想到会有这么一天。叁| 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