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虎不威
不要再做一个傻叉,A股玩得那么好,来美国找死吗?
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虎不威
2023-03-13
$优信(UXIN)$
亏成狗了,果然选择错了啊
虎不威
2022-02-24
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
抄底吧,兄弟们,每天买一百股
虎不威
2021-08-04
加油亏得要死
雾芯科技盘前大涨,成功申报国内首个电子烟临床试验
虎不威
2021-08-04
说明啥呢
抱歉,原内容已删除
虎不威
2021-07-30
买啥跌啥啊,真的是不要这样对我把
虎不威
2021-07-27
$每日优鲜(MF)$
买了三天多,以为抄了个低想不到是半山腰啊,非常悲剧啊,太悲剧了
虎不威
2021-07-24
没有更低只有更低
虎不威
2021-07-21
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
@达摩行:
$滴滴(DIDI)$
看了下数据,监管后滴滴的dau还是稳定在2000万左右,T3从70万涨到了120万,曹操从50万涨到了70万,嘀嗒稳定在200万。其他的可以忽略不计。高德和百度的数据不详。
虎不威
2021-07-16
学习学习
平安证券:从叮咚买菜和每日优鲜看前置仓电商的未来
虎不威
2021-07-14
有毒啊一买就跌,这技术天下无敌,多空都是亏钱吗
虎不威
2021-07-09
真的是惨,为啥买啥亏啥呢,天要我亡
虎不威
2021-07-09
$知乎(ZH)$
真是亏死了啊,千万不能做空,开始大涨500点了
虎不威
2021-07-08
$知乎(ZH)$
要开始上涨一周了赶紧做多吧
虎不威
2021-07-08
买跌就大涨,刚才还舍不得割真的够可以,本来想搞投机,投机总是失败,逼我搞价值投资啊!因为他比大盘走得强所以呢你就做多吧,好好的做空,去赌干吗呢,就是给自己添堵。****永远不会改,美国市场投机非常难。
虎不威
2021-07-08
难道我又错了,想顺应下市场结果你大涨,是因为你调整到位了吗?看来我有毒,个股总是跟我预测的相反,我想空你就多,我想多你就跌怎么办???
虎不威
2021-07-08
真的是买啥跌啥
虎不威
2021-07-08
买还是不卖,竞争好激烈
滴滴出行遭下架后,中国出行市场迎来洗牌期?
虎不威
2021-07-08
危机尾中有机会
@老王的投研笔记:这期讲基本面,下一期讲到底什么时候抄底$滴滴(DIDI)$。以下为正文:我一直认为我党是股民们的好朋友,2017年人民网发文《《王者荣耀》,是娱乐大众还是“陷害”人生》,腾讯股价应声下落,当天跌了4个多点;2018年人民网又发文《拼多多山寨路线能走多远》,拼夕夕股价也应声下跌,当天最多跌了15个点。回过头来,这些票到现在,价格都翻了好几番。所以,投资路上,不要放过任何一个危机,危中有机。我们再来看看这两天闹得沸沸扬扬的滴滴事件,网信办昨天发文说需要对滴滴做网络安全审查,并且停止滴滴的新用户注册,刚又发文全面下架APP,事态发展更加严重了。网传是滴滴把我国的地图数据给了美丽国,以谋求上市。太狗了!但具体的原因博主我肯定是不知道,点波关注,后面我给大家分析。我们先来看看滴滴的基本面。滴滴是领先的一站式移动出行和本地生活服务平台按照招股说明书所列,公司主要业务包括共享出行、汽车服务、电动汽车、海外业务和其他业务。其**享出行业务占总收入98%以上,是公司的支柱业务。共享出行主要指滴滴快车、滴滴专车、滴滴顺风车、滴滴代驾这几块大业务以及其他小业务。用过滴滴的朋友都知道,快车最便宜的、专车贵点、豪华车最贵,顺风车就是拼车。花小猪是2020年从滴滴里面分出来的,主打三四线下沉市场。从2012年开始,滴滴从的士市场开始切入,逐步完善出行业务板块,并且通过横向并购快的、优步中国等优质资产,在的士、快车、专车、豪华车领域均取得了第一的成绩,即使2018年顺风车下架后,公司经历过一段业务下滑,但是该业务重新上架后,滴滴又夺回了全品类第一的宝座。我们来看看滴滴在出行领域的竞争对手,产品种类上,滴滴最全,其他能打的也就曹操出行和首汽约车,在部分地区有一定的市场,市场份额上,滴滴占据着90
虎不威
2021-07-02
跌得再惨都要记得做t不抛弃,不放弃啊!
虎不威
2021-07-02
以为抄了个低想不到买到半山腰了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RLX\">雾芯科技</a>盘前异动拉升,现涨近15%,早前公司宣布电子烟品牌悦刻成功申报国内首个电子烟临床试验。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da85ca3a959a7d4a1a36ee2320ade4bf\" tg-width=\"1393\" tg-height=\"924\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc4ee269ad9cff7441dc3605e3bc69a","relate_stocks":{"RLX":"雾芯科技"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1124330329","content_text":"周三,雾芯科技盘前异动拉升,现涨近15%,早前公司宣布电子烟品牌悦刻成功申报国内首个电子烟临床试验。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1675,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":890372810,"gmtCreate":1628085373830,"gmtModify":1628085373830,"author":{"id":"3516916477871414","authorId":"3516916477871414","name":"虎不威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bcd8ea76531d8087755de84618b3a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3516916477871414","authorIdStr":"3516916477871414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"说明啥呢","listText":"说明啥呢","text":"说明啥呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890372810","repostId":"1124330329","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":806228761,"gmtCreate":1627659184753,"gmtModify":1627659184753,"author":{"id":"3516916477871414","authorId":"3516916477871414","name":"虎不威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bcd8ea76531d8087755de84618b3a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3516916477871414","authorIdStr":"3516916477871414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"买啥跌啥啊,真的是不要这样对我把","listText":"买啥跌啥啊,真的是不要这样对我把","text":"买啥跌啥啊,真的是不要这样对我把","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5a5371a9f6738c9ade0aeb180e2687f","width":"1080","height":"2926"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806228761","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1922,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":803006249,"gmtCreate":1627395174881,"gmtModify":1627395174881,"author":{"id":"3516916477871414","authorId":"3516916477871414","name":"虎不威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bcd8ea76531d8087755de84618b3a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3516916477871414","authorIdStr":"3516916477871414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">$每日优鲜(MF)$</a>买了三天多,以为抄了个低想不到是半山腰啊,非常悲剧啊,太悲剧了","listText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>看了下数据,监管后滴滴的dau还是稳定在2000万左右,T3从70万涨到了120万,曹操从50万涨到了70万,嘀嗒稳定在200万。其他的可以忽略不计。高德和百度的数据不详。","listText":"<a 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02:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"平安证券:从叮咚买菜和每日优鲜看前置仓电商的未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2151532106","media":"199IT","summary":"平安证券:从叮咚买菜和每日优鲜看前置仓电商的未来 一、前置仓电商:高频占据中高客群钱包份额1.1 前置仓电商:满足消费者对便利、健康的生鲜食杂需求生鲜电商:履约时效在一小时内,主要经营品类为生鲜食杂的一类电商。2021年6月叮咚买菜、每日优鲜赴美上市,上市首日市值分别达到55.4、22.7亿美元。每日优鲜疫情期间毛利率大幅提升,随后回落至较低毛利率水平。","content":"<html><body><p>原标题:平安证券:从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DDL\">叮咚</a>买菜和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MF\">每日优鲜</a>看前置仓电商的未来</p><p><font><font> 一、前置仓电商:高频占据中高客群钱包份额</font></font></p><p><font><font>1.1 </font></font><font><font>前置仓电商:满足消费者对便利、健康的生鲜食杂需求</font></font></p><p><font><font>生鲜电商:</font>履约时效在一小时内,主要经营品类为生鲜食杂的一类电商。生鲜电商分为平台型和自营型,平台型包括专注于</font><font>商超平台的京东到家和淘鲜达,以及外卖平台美团外卖和饿了么。自营型进一步分为前置仓和店仓到家两个模式,前置仓包</font><font>括叮咚买菜、每日优鲜、美团买菜等,店仓到家包括盒马、大润发到家等。</font></p><p><font><font>前置仓电商:</font>前置仓密集构建在社区周边,将生鲜、快消品直接存储其中,由骑手负责最后一公里配送到</font><font>消费者家中,主要满足中高线城市消费者对便利、健康的生鲜食杂需求。</font></p><p><font><font>1.2 </font></font><font><font>行业规模:</font></font><font><font>2020</font></font><font><font>年生鲜电商规模</font></font><font><font>1288</font></font><font><font>亿,其中前置仓</font></font><font><font>308</font></font><font><font>亿</font></font></p><p><font><font>2020</font></font><font><font>年生鲜电商规模</font></font><font><font>1288</font></font><font><font>亿,其中前置仓</font></font><font><font>308</font></font><font><font>亿。</font>根据</font><font>CIC</font><font>咨询公司数据,</font><font>2020</font><font>年生鲜电商规模</font><font>1288</font><font>亿,</font><font>其中平台型规模</font><font>703</font><font>亿,自营型</font><font>585</font><font>亿。预计</font><font>2025</font><font>年生鲜电商规模</font><font>5118</font><font>亿,其中平台型</font><font>1934 </font><font>亿,自营型</font><font>3184</font><font>亿。</font></p><p><font><font>1.3 </font></font><font><font>业态对比:前置仓优势在于网点更密集,配送速度更快</font></font></p><p><font><font>前置仓:</font>优势在于选址要求低、能够更加密集的覆盖用户,配送速度更快。劣势在于</font><font>UE</font><font>模型差,盈利能力弱。</font></p><p><font><font>店仓到家:</font>优势在于<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300959\">线上线下</a>两个流量入口,以及线上订单可复用线下门店、员工等资源。劣势在于选址要求高覆盖区域有限</font></p><p><font><font>平台:</font>优势在于平台轻资产模式易下沉,劣势在于商超到家需求不如外卖大,且超市利润率低于餐饮店,难以负担配送费。</font></p><p><font><font>1.4 </font></font><font><font>用户画像:高线城市白领为主,潜在用户规模预计约</font></font><font><font>7500</font></font><font><font>万</font></font></p><p><font><font>用户画像:高线城市中青年高收入群体。</font>每日优鲜</font><font>80%</font><font>用户在</font><font>26</font><font>至</font><font>45</font><font>岁之间,其中超</font><font>1/2</font><font>在</font><font>26</font><font>至</font><font>35</font><font>岁之间,近</font><font>1/3</font><font>年龄在</font><font>36</font><font>至</font><font>45 </font><font>岁之间。典型用户为:厨房使用频次高的父母、对食物有高要求的消费者以及白领职业人士。盒马也透露主要用户画像为年龄在</font><font>25</font><font>至</font><font>40</font><font>岁之间的女性,年收入达</font><font>27</font><font>万以上。</font></p><p><font><font>潜在用户规模测算:</font>根据上述用户画像,我们假设生鲜电商主要覆盖一二线城市</font><font>25-45</font><font>岁用户,其他年龄群体用户占比</font><font>20%</font><font>,</font><font>则潜在用户规模在</font><font>7500</font><font>万左右。</font><font>21Q1</font><font>叮咚买菜月消费用户达到</font><font>690</font><font>万,每日优鲜</font><font>21Q1-TTM</font><font>消费用户达到</font><font>790</font><font>万,截止</font><font>21Q1</font><font>累计交易用户达</font><font>3100</font><font>万,盒马</font><font>2020</font><font>年年消费用户规模达</font><font>2500</font><font>万,生鲜电商用户渗透率还有较大提升空间。</font></p><p><font><font>1.5 </font></font><font><font>叮咚买菜</font></font><font><font> vs.</font></font><font><font>每日优鲜:叮咚买菜后来居上,主要核心指标均处于领先地位</font></font></p><p><font><font>叮咚买菜后来居上,主要核心指标均处于领先地位。</font></font><font>2018</font><font>年叮咚买菜</font><font>GMV</font><font>仅</font><font>7.4</font><font>亿元,</font><font>2020</font><font>年叮咚买菜</font><font> GMV</font><font>达到</font><font>130</font><font>亿元,目前叮咚买菜的日均订单量、用户数、覆盖城市、前置仓数量等主要核心指标均高于</font><font>每日优鲜。</font></p><p><font><font>1.5.1 </font></font><font><font>赶超秘诀:抓住消费者心智与核心客群,疫情期间加速逆转</font></font></p><p><font>叮咚买菜后来居上的主要原因:</font></p><p><font><font>抓住</font></font><font><font>“</font></font><font><font>买菜</font></font><font><font>”</font></font><font><font>消费者的心智,持续提升复购率增加订单规模。</font></font><font>“</font><font>买菜</font><font>”</font><font>需求高频,带来订单量的持续增长,而每日优鲜走向</font><font> “</font><font>线上超市</font><font>”</font><font>,虽然客单价高但需求频率较低,影响订单量的增长。</font></p><p><font><font>抓住核心客群,避免被非目标用户</font></font><font><font>“</font></font><font><font>薅羊毛</font></font><font><font>”</font></font><font><font>。</font>生鲜到家需求有限,叮咚买菜核心用户贡献近半数</font><font>GMV</font><font>,而每日优鲜在</font><font>21Q1</font><font>仍</font><font>有</font><font>25%</font><font>订单属于</font><font>“</font><font>薅羊毛</font><font>”</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>疫情期间客户体验好,没有一味提升盈利能力而是做好服务。</font>每日优鲜在疫情期间毛利率从往年的</font><font>10%</font><font>左右飙升至</font><font>30%</font><font>,而叮</font><font>咚买菜则合理控制毛利率的增长,更好的价格获得更多用户。</font></p><p><font><font>1.5.2 </font></font><font><font>赶超秘诀:抓住消费者心智与核心客群,疫情期间加速逆转</font></font></p><p><font><font>融资节奏好,疫情前储备大量资金。</font>前置仓电商还处于亏损期,融资能力成为业务发展重要支撑。</font><font>2019</font><font>年叮咚买菜筹</font><font>资活动现金净额达到</font><font>16.8</font><font>亿,充分利用筹资款开拓业务,在疫情时加大投入实现弯道超车。而每日优鲜在</font><font>2019</font><font>年融资</font><font>断档,筹资活动现金流出</font><font>8200</font><font>万。</font><font>2021</font><font>年</font><font>6</font><font>月叮咚买菜、每日优鲜赴美上市,上市首日市值分别达到</font><font>55.4</font><font>、</font><font>22.7</font><font>亿美元。</font></p><p><font>二、实现盈利需较长时间,订单量至关重要</font></p><p><font><font>2.1 </font></font><font><font>商业模式:高质量商品和快速配送带来复购和规模,进而改善</font></font><font><font>UE</font></font><font><font>模型</font></font></p><p><font>前置仓本质是满足消费者健康、便利生鲜食杂需求,第一步是要有高质量商品和快速配送体系。当商品品质和配送时间确定后才</font><font>能带来消费者复购、提升订单规模,进而改善</font><font>UE</font><font>模型、继续提升商品质量,形成正向循环。</font></p><p><font><font>UE</font></font><font><font>模型:</font>最关键三个变量为客单价、毛利率、配送费。核心是毛利总额需要能覆盖单均配送成本。影响毛利总额的主要因素为供应链能力即商品力,影响配送成本的主要因素是单仓订单规模。</font></p><p><font><font>订单量:</font>由前置仓数量和单仓订单量推动,区域、城市拓展提升前置仓数量进而覆盖更多用户,复购率决定单仓订单量。</font></p><p><font><font>2.2 UE</font></font><font><font>模型:目前毛利无法覆盖配送费用,难以盈利</font></font></p><p><font><font>前置仓</font></font><font><font>UE</font></font><font><font>模型关键在于毛利覆盖配送费用,目前盈利能力较差。</font></font><font>UE</font><font>模型即是从客单价开始,扣除一系列成本最</font><font>终得到单均运营利润</font><font>/</font><font>亏损,其中重点要素为单均毛利和配送费用。</font><font> 21Q1</font><font>叮咚买菜客单价</font><font>61.7</font><font>元,单均毛利</font><font>10.3</font><font>元,履约费用</font><font>21.3</font><font>元,单均运营亏损</font><font>19.1</font><font>元。</font></p><p><font><font>2.2.1 </font></font><font><font>毛利率:前置仓公司综合毛利率低于传统超市</font></font></p><p><font><font>优秀前置仓公司商品毛利率高于传统超市,但综合毛利率低于传统超市。</font>以叮咚买菜和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601933\">永辉超市</a>为例,</font><font>2019</font><font>、</font><font>2020</font><font>年叮咚买菜</font><font>商品销售毛利率均高于永辉超市,推测与前置仓较高商品定价、以及前置仓多为包装菜有关。</font><font>2019</font><font>、</font><font> 2020</font><font>叮咚买菜综合毛利率均低于永辉超市,主因线下超市可通过商品吸引客流,通过店铺租金、商品后台费等收入实现</font><font>“</font><font>流量</font><font>变现</font><font>”</font><font>,而前置仓公司仅有会员收入等非商品收入。</font></p><p><font><font>每日优鲜疫情期间毛利率大幅提升,随后回落至较低毛利率水平。</font></font><font>2018-2020</font><font>年,每日优鲜毛利率分别为</font><font>8.6%/8.7%/19.4%</font><font>,</font><font> 2020</font><font>年毛利率大幅提升主因</font><font>20Q1</font><font>疫情期间每日优鲜毛利率大幅提升至</font><font>30.2%</font><font>,</font><font>21Q1</font><font>每日优鲜毛利率回落至</font><font>12.3%</font><font>,显示出商品运</font><font>营效率和叮咚买菜间较大的差距。</font></p><p><font><font>2.2.2 </font></font><font><font>履约费用:最后一公里配送费用占比最高</font></font></p><p><font><font>履约费用包括:</font>①最后一公里配送费、②前置仓租金、③城市仓至前置仓配送费等。</font></p><p><font>最后一公里配送费占比最高,其中骑手提成部分相对刚性。最后一公里配送由骑手负责,由于骑手薪资由底薪与单均提成构成,</font><font>因此配送费用规模效应较弱。</font><font>2020-21Q1</font><font>叮咚买菜、每日优鲜最后一公里配送费率均维持在</font><font>20%</font><font>左右,约占整体履约费用的</font><font>2/3</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>租金、城市仓至前置仓配送费具有规模效应。</font>以叮咚买菜为例,</font><font>2019</font><font>至</font><font>2020</font><font>年,租金</font><font>+</font><font>城市仓配送费用率从</font><font>17.6%</font><font>降至</font><font>13.5%</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>对标相似行业,配送费用率有一定下降空间</font></font></p><p><font><font>若单均配送费用降至</font></font><font><font>7</font></font><font><font>元左右,最后一公里配送费用率将降至</font></font><font><font>12.8%</font></font><font><font>。</font></font><font>21Q1</font><font>叮咚买菜单均配送费用为</font><font>12.7</font><font>元,单均配送费用较</font><font>高推测主要因为大规模开拓新仓导致单仓订单密度不足所致。对比相似行业,美团外卖</font><font>1P</font><font>订单配送费用稳定在</font><font>7.2</font><font>元</font><font>左右。假设叮咚买菜单均配送费用降至</font><font>7</font><font>元,对照现有单均收入,则配送费用率将降至</font><font>12.8%</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>2.2.3 </font></font><font><font>补贴:应更聚焦目标客群的获取与维护</font></font></p><p><font><font>每日优鲜补贴强度更高。</font>前置仓补贴分两类,</font><font>1</font><font>)销售商品的补贴,会计上直接抵减收入,可以用</font><font>GMV/</font><font>收入指标衡量补贴程度。</font><font>2</font><font>)拉新补贴计入销售费用可用销售费用率衡量。</font><font>21Q1</font><font>叮咚买菜</font><font> GMV/</font><font>收入达</font><font>113%</font><font>,销售费用率</font><font>8%</font><font>,每日优鲜补贴强度更高。</font></p><p><font><font>补贴应更聚焦目标客群的获取与维护。</font>每日优鲜补贴强度更高,但获客成本却高于叮咚买菜,这可能与有效用户</font><font>GMV</font><font>占比较低有关。前置仓模式定位中高客群,单纯依赖补贴吸引</font><font>“</font><font>薅羊</font><font>毛</font><font>”</font><font>用户效用较低,应更聚焦目标客群的获取与维护。</font></p><p><font><font>2.3 </font></font><font><font>订单量:叮咚买菜订单量大幅领先</font></font></p><p><font><font>叮咚买菜订单量大幅领先于每日优鲜。</font></font><font>2020</font><font>年叮咚买菜订单量达到</font><font>2</font><font>亿单,同比增长</font><font>111%</font><font>,而每日优鲜有效用户订单量为</font><font>6510 </font><font>万,同比仅增长</font><font>10.2%</font><font>。假设有效用户订单量占总订单数比例为</font><font>81%</font><font>,则</font><font>2020</font><font>年每日优鲜订单</font><font>量为</font><font>8037</font><font>万单。叮咚买菜订单量大幅领先主因:</font><font>1</font><font>)前置仓数量更多,</font><font>2</font><font>)单仓订单量更大。</font></p><p><font><font>2.3.1 </font></font><font><font>前置仓数量:叮咚买菜按区域迅速扩城,</font></font><font><font>21Q1</font></font><font><font>覆盖</font></font><font><font>29</font></font><font><font>个城市</font></font><font><font>950</font></font><font><font>个前置仓</font></font></p><p><font><font>叮咚买菜迅速扩城,</font></font><font><font>21Q1</font></font><font><font>覆盖</font></font><font><font>29</font></font><font><font>个城市</font></font><font><font>950</font></font><font><font>个前置仓。</font></font><font>2019-21Q1</font><font>叮咚买菜覆盖城市数量从</font><font>5</font><font>个增长至</font><font>29</font><font>个,拥有</font><font>950</font><font>个前置仓,月</font><font>GMV</font><font>破亿城市达</font><font>5</font><font>个,单个城市月</font><font>GMV</font><font>虽然从</font><font>7900</font><font>万降至</font><font>4900</font><font>万,但依然高于</font><font>每日优鲜的</font><font>4000</font><font>万,显示出有效的区域拓展策略。</font></p><p><font><font>长期看,叮咚买菜区域拓展策略更为合理。</font>前置仓在一个城市订单分布呈现蜂窝状,当某个区域订单量超过单仓需求后就会</font><font>增加前置仓数量,因此前置仓一般按区域、城市拓张。叮咚买菜按区域拓城,有利于区域供应链</font><font>建设。每日优鲜拓城主要覆盖一二线省会城市,短期需求大但由于城市较为分散长期供应链成本高。</font></p><p><font><font>2.3.2 </font></font><font><font>单仓订单量:成熟仓订单量大幅高于均值,对配送成本有较大影响</font></font></p><p><font><font>标准前置仓配置:</font>根据每日优鲜招股书公布的前置仓数据,单仓面积一般在</font><font>300</font><font>平米左右,</font><font>SKU 4300</font><font>个,每个前置仓配备</font><font>1</font><font>名</font><font>经理、</font><font>5-10</font><font>名分拣和库存员工以及</font><font>10-20</font><font>名配送员。平均每个配送员每天配送</font><font>50</font><font>单,每单配送时长约</font><font>39</font><font>分钟。单仓库存周转率</font><font> 3.8</font><font>天,损耗率</font><font>2.5%</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>成熟仓日均订单规模大幅高于平均值,单仓订单量对配送成本有较大影响。</font>以叮咚买菜为例,成熟仓日均订单量</font><font>2000</font><font>单,而</font><font>单仓平均值只有</font><font>815</font><font>单,考虑到成熟仓培育需要时间,预计新仓拖累单仓平均订单表现。订单规模严重影响配送员效率,成熟</font><font>仓每个骑手日均配送</font><font>85</font><font>单,而平均值只有</font><font>48</font><font>单。考虑到配送员工资一般有最低保障,因此不断开新仓对配送成本有较大影响。</font></p><p><font><font>2.3.3 </font></font><font><font>单仓订单量:由复购率驱动,高客单价影响消费频率</font></font></p><p><font><font>单仓订单增长靠复购。</font></font><font>2018</font><font>年至</font><font>21Q1</font><font>,叮咚买菜单用户月均交易订单量维持在</font><font>3</font><font>单以上,而每日优鲜月均交易订单量不足</font><font>1</font><font>单,</font><font>复购率是单用户月均交易订单量差异的主因。叮咚买菜存量用户贡献绝大多数</font><font>GMV</font><font>亦能验证复购率重要性。根据叮咚买菜招股书,存量用户</font><font>GMV</font><font>贡献率从</font><font>18Q1</font><font>的</font><font>51.9%</font><font>增长至</font><font>21Q1</font><font>的</font><font>81.6%</font><font>,存量用户持续复购驱动</font><font>GMV</font><font>不断增长。</font></p><p><font><font>高客单价影响频率。</font>每日优鲜客单价始终高于叮咚买菜,</font><font>21Q1</font><font>每日优鲜客单价</font><font>89.6</font><font>元而叮咚买菜客单价</font><font>61.7</font><font>元,高客单价可能是抑制购物频率原因之一。</font></p><p><font><font>2.3.4 </font></font><font><font>单仓订单量:核心用户复购率更高</font></font></p><p><font><font>以会员为代表的核心用户复购率更高。</font>根据叮咚买菜招股书,</font><font>21Q1</font><font>占总用户比例</font><font>22%</font><font>的会员用户贡献</font><font>47%</font><font>的</font><font>GMV</font><font>,客单价为整体</font><font>的</font><font>107%</font><font>,月交易订单量为整体的</font><font>1.9</font><font>倍。叮咚买菜会员</font><font>12</font><font>月、</font><font>24</font><font>月复购率分别达到</font><font>64.2%</font><font>、</font><font>70.5%</font><font>,自会员计划发布至今留存率</font><font> 48.8%</font><font>。与此相似,</font><font>2020</font><font>年</font><font>1</font><font>月占总用户比例</font><font>31%</font><font>的盒马核心用户贡献</font><font>67%</font><font>的</font><font>GMV</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>2.4 </font></font><font><font>核心竞争力:零售最终是供应链的比拼</font></font></p><p><font>零售最终是供应链的比拼,强供应链能力最终体现为更低的采购成本、有竞争力的销售价格、更大的销售规模。提升供应链的</font><font>方式包括:增加商品直采比例、与供应链上游深度合作、增强商品运营能力等。</font></p><p><font><font>盒马、叮咚买菜供应链能力更为突出</font></font></p><p><font><font>从商品售价看,盒马、叮咚买菜有较强供应链能力。</font>上海地区盒马商品价格优势明显,北京地区叮咚买菜价格略有优势。上海</font><font>地区,根据抽样的</font><font>4</font><font>大品类</font><font>15</font><font>种商品看,盒马在</font><font>9</font><font>种商品上面有价格优势。此外叮咚买菜在上海地区生鲜品类有一定价格优势。北京地区,叮咚在</font><font>6</font><font>种商品上面有价格优势。</font></p><p><font><font>三、增强供应链能力提毛利,扩大会员规模增单量</font></font></p><p><font><font>3.1.1 </font></font><font><font>供应链:加大自有品牌商品建设,增强商品运营能力</font></font></p><p><font><font>加大自有品牌商品的建设。</font>自有品牌商品拥有更低的采购成本,既可降低销售价格提升价格竞争力,又可提升毛利率增强盈利</font><font>能力。此外,自有品牌商品亦能增加商品独特性,增强零售商区分度。</font></p><p><font><font>叮咚:</font></font><font>2020</font><font>年</font><font>7</font><font>月首次推出自有品牌商品,</font><font>21Q1</font><font>自有品牌销售占比</font><font>3.3%</font><font>,上海区域销售占比</font><font>8.1%</font><font>。以</font><font>2020</font><font>年</font><font>7</font><font>月推出日日鲜猪肉</font><font>为例,叮咚自建猪肉加工厂深度参与到加工环节,不仅价格更具吸引力,毛利率也更高,</font><font>21Q1</font><font>日日鲜猪肉占猪肉销售比例</font><font>40%</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>盒马:</font>自有品牌商品建设较早,已形成盒马工坊、日日鲜、帝皇鲜、盒马</font><font>MAX</font><font>等系列品类。根据盒马商品采销总经理赵家钰透</font><font>露,</font><font>2020</font><font>年盒马自有品牌销售达到</font><font>20%</font><font>,相比</font><font>2019</font><font>年翻一倍。</font><font>2020</font><font>年盒马推出超</font><font>20000</font><font>款新品,其中</font><font>6000</font><font>多款为盒马自有品牌。</font></p><p><font><font>3.1.2 </font></font><font><font>供应链:加大预制半成品建设,提升毛利率</font></font></p><p><font><font>加大预制半成品的建设。</font>预制半成品也叫</font><font>3R</font><font>商品,能满足消费者对方便、健康的需求,随着生活节奏加</font><font>快,备受消费者喜爱</font><font>,2019</font><font>年盒马自有品牌中消费者接受度最高的就是</font><font>3R</font><font>商品。预制半成品拥有更高的毛利率,以日本</font><font>7-11</font><font>为</font><font>例,</font><font>FY2021</font><font>其加工食品毛利率高达</font><font>39.4%</font><font>,远高于生鲜</font><font>16%</font><font>左右的毛利率。</font></p><p><font><font>叮咚买菜、盒马积极布局预制半成品。</font>叮咚买菜已推出</font><font>“</font><font>拳击小龙虾</font><font>”</font><font>等预制半成品。盒马预制半成品布局更为领先,</font><font>2017</font><font>年</font><font>即树立预制半成品品牌盒马工坊,</font><font>2020</font><font>年</font><font>7</font><font>月全国所有门店盒马工坊的单月销售额突破</font><font>1</font><font>亿元,占据盒马自有品牌销售额近</font><font>40%</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>3.3 </font></font><font><font>会员:拓展会员规模,增强用户粘性</font></font></p><p><font><font>会员用户具备高粘性,可提升订单增长的持续性。</font>如前所述,会员的订单贡献量远高于普通用户。</font><font>21Q1</font><font>占叮咚买菜总用户比</font><font>例</font><font>22%</font><font>的会员用户贡献</font><font>47%</font><font>的</font><font>GMV</font><font>,客单价为均值的</font><font>107%</font><font>,月交易订单量为均值的</font><font>1.9</font><font>倍,拓展会员规模可提升订单持续增长性。</font></p><p><font><font>采用</font></font><font><font>“</font></font><font><font>激励措施</font></font><font><font>” </font></font><font><font>,积极拓展会员规模,抢占核心用户。</font>由于会员群体的高价值和稀缺性,通过一定激励措施推动更多普通</font><font>用户成为会员可抢占核心用户、提升订单量增长的持续性。以叮咚买菜为例,通过与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">爱奇艺</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XIMA\">喜马拉雅</a>等公司进行</font><font>“</font><font>会员联名</font><font>”</font><font>活动,变相降低会员费用,积极拓展会员规模。</font><font>21Q1</font><font>会员规模达</font><font>152</font><font>万,会员费收入达</font><font>4500</font><font>万。</font></p><p><font><font>Costco</font></font><font><font>通过商品引流会员费变现的方式,目前暂不适用于前置仓模式。</font></font><font>FY2016-FY2020</font><font>,</font><font>Costco</font><font>会员费收入贡献</font><font>70%</font><font>左右运营利</font><font>润。与此对比,</font><font>21Q1</font><font>叮咚买菜会员费收入</font><font>4500</font><font>万,占毛利比例为</font><font>6%</font><font>。国内前置仓模式寄希望于通过会员收入提升盈利能力任重</font><font>道远,主要因为覆盖用户规模及</font><font>ARPPU</font><font>有限,会员的作用更多在于提升用户粘性。</font></p><p><font><font>会员规模取决于服务面向的人群,前置仓模式覆盖用户规模有限。</font></font><font>Costco</font><font>通过低价吸引用户购买会员,在美国属于大众消费。</font><font>而前置仓典型用户为:乐意为便捷与高质量服务支付溢价的用户,规模有限。</font><font>FY2020 Costco</font><font>会员规模达到</font><font>1.06</font><font>亿,与此对比,</font><font> 21Q1</font><font>叮咚买菜会员用户规模</font><font>152</font><font>万,会员渗透率</font><font>22%</font><font>。</font></p><p><font><font>会员</font></font><font><font>ARPPU</font></font><font><font>取决于所提供的服务丰富度。</font></font><font>21Q1</font><font>叮咚买菜会员年</font><font>ARPPU118</font><font>元,与此对比,</font><font>FY2020 Costco </font><font>单会员</font><font>ARPPU</font><font>在</font><font>30</font><font>美元、盒马会员费为</font><font>258</font><font>元,盒马会员权益较为丰富,包括每月</font><font>31</font><font>次免配送费、盒马</font><font>X</font><font>会员店购物资格、会员</font><font>日</font><font>88</font><font>折、会员专享优惠券、购物返积分等。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021713/400/w1280h720/20210713/5e89-ksmehzt3495415.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021713/400/w1280h720/20210713/f9b5-ksmehzt3495414.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2021713/400/w1280h720/20210713/d8c3-ksmehzt3495425.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><div><img 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n平安证券:从叮咚买菜和每日优鲜看前置仓电商的未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-13 02:07 北京时间 <a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-07-13/doc-ikqcfnca6487774.shtml><strong>199IT</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>原标题:平安证券:从叮咚买菜和每日优鲜看前置仓电商的未来 一、前置仓电商:高频占据中高客群钱包份额1.1 前置仓电商:满足消费者对便利、健康的生鲜食杂需求生鲜电商:履约时效在一小时内,主要经营品类为生鲜食杂的一类电商。生鲜电商分为平台型和自营型,平台型包括专注于商超平台的京东到家和淘鲜达,以及外卖平台美团外卖和饿了么。自营型进一步分为前置仓和店仓到家两个模式,前置仓包括叮咚买菜、每日优鲜...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-07-13/doc-ikqcfnca6487774.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604b5a8595b17f13ade7eb1901dcc75e","relate_stocks":{"161027":"证券","MF":"每日优鲜","DDL":"叮咚买菜"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/tech/2021-07-13/doc-ikqcfnca6487774.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2151532106","content_text":"原标题:平安证券:从叮咚买菜和每日优鲜看前置仓电商的未来 一、前置仓电商:高频占据中高客群钱包份额1.1 前置仓电商:满足消费者对便利、健康的生鲜食杂需求生鲜电商:履约时效在一小时内,主要经营品类为生鲜食杂的一类电商。生鲜电商分为平台型和自营型,平台型包括专注于商超平台的京东到家和淘鲜达,以及外卖平台美团外卖和饿了么。自营型进一步分为前置仓和店仓到家两个模式,前置仓包括叮咚买菜、每日优鲜、美团买菜等,店仓到家包括盒马、大润发到家等。前置仓电商:前置仓密集构建在社区周边,将生鲜、快消品直接存储其中,由骑手负责最后一公里配送到消费者家中,主要满足中高线城市消费者对便利、健康的生鲜食杂需求。1.2 行业规模:2020年生鲜电商规模1288亿,其中前置仓308亿2020年生鲜电商规模1288亿,其中前置仓308亿。根据CIC咨询公司数据,2020年生鲜电商规模1288亿,其中平台型规模703亿,自营型585亿。预计2025年生鲜电商规模5118亿,其中平台型1934 亿,自营型3184亿。1.3 业态对比:前置仓优势在于网点更密集,配送速度更快前置仓:优势在于选址要求低、能够更加密集的覆盖用户,配送速度更快。劣势在于UE模型差,盈利能力弱。店仓到家:优势在于线上线下两个流量入口,以及线上订单可复用线下门店、员工等资源。劣势在于选址要求高覆盖区域有限平台:优势在于平台轻资产模式易下沉,劣势在于商超到家需求不如外卖大,且超市利润率低于餐饮店,难以负担配送费。1.4 用户画像:高线城市白领为主,潜在用户规模预计约7500万用户画像:高线城市中青年高收入群体。每日优鲜80%用户在26至45岁之间,其中超1/2在26至35岁之间,近1/3年龄在36至45 岁之间。典型用户为:厨房使用频次高的父母、对食物有高要求的消费者以及白领职业人士。盒马也透露主要用户画像为年龄在25至40岁之间的女性,年收入达27万以上。潜在用户规模测算:根据上述用户画像,我们假设生鲜电商主要覆盖一二线城市25-45岁用户,其他年龄群体用户占比20%,则潜在用户规模在7500万左右。21Q1叮咚买菜月消费用户达到690万,每日优鲜21Q1-TTM消费用户达到790万,截止21Q1累计交易用户达3100万,盒马2020年年消费用户规模达2500万,生鲜电商用户渗透率还有较大提升空间。1.5 叮咚买菜 vs.每日优鲜:叮咚买菜后来居上,主要核心指标均处于领先地位叮咚买菜后来居上,主要核心指标均处于领先地位。2018年叮咚买菜GMV仅7.4亿元,2020年叮咚买菜 GMV达到130亿元,目前叮咚买菜的日均订单量、用户数、覆盖城市、前置仓数量等主要核心指标均高于每日优鲜。1.5.1 赶超秘诀:抓住消费者心智与核心客群,疫情期间加速逆转叮咚买菜后来居上的主要原因:抓住“买菜”消费者的心智,持续提升复购率增加订单规模。“买菜”需求高频,带来订单量的持续增长,而每日优鲜走向 “线上超市”,虽然客单价高但需求频率较低,影响订单量的增长。抓住核心客群,避免被非目标用户“薅羊毛”。生鲜到家需求有限,叮咚买菜核心用户贡献近半数GMV,而每日优鲜在21Q1仍有25%订单属于“薅羊毛”。疫情期间客户体验好,没有一味提升盈利能力而是做好服务。每日优鲜在疫情期间毛利率从往年的10%左右飙升至30%,而叮咚买菜则合理控制毛利率的增长,更好的价格获得更多用户。1.5.2 赶超秘诀:抓住消费者心智与核心客群,疫情期间加速逆转融资节奏好,疫情前储备大量资金。前置仓电商还处于亏损期,融资能力成为业务发展重要支撑。2019年叮咚买菜筹资活动现金净额达到16.8亿,充分利用筹资款开拓业务,在疫情时加大投入实现弯道超车。而每日优鲜在2019年融资断档,筹资活动现金流出8200万。2021年6月叮咚买菜、每日优鲜赴美上市,上市首日市值分别达到55.4、22.7亿美元。二、实现盈利需较长时间,订单量至关重要2.1 商业模式:高质量商品和快速配送带来复购和规模,进而改善UE模型前置仓本质是满足消费者健康、便利生鲜食杂需求,第一步是要有高质量商品和快速配送体系。当商品品质和配送时间确定后才能带来消费者复购、提升订单规模,进而改善UE模型、继续提升商品质量,形成正向循环。UE模型:最关键三个变量为客单价、毛利率、配送费。核心是毛利总额需要能覆盖单均配送成本。影响毛利总额的主要因素为供应链能力即商品力,影响配送成本的主要因素是单仓订单规模。订单量:由前置仓数量和单仓订单量推动,区域、城市拓展提升前置仓数量进而覆盖更多用户,复购率决定单仓订单量。2.2 UE模型:目前毛利无法覆盖配送费用,难以盈利前置仓UE模型关键在于毛利覆盖配送费用,目前盈利能力较差。UE模型即是从客单价开始,扣除一系列成本最终得到单均运营利润/亏损,其中重点要素为单均毛利和配送费用。 21Q1叮咚买菜客单价61.7元,单均毛利10.3元,履约费用21.3元,单均运营亏损19.1元。2.2.1 毛利率:前置仓公司综合毛利率低于传统超市优秀前置仓公司商品毛利率高于传统超市,但综合毛利率低于传统超市。以叮咚买菜和永辉超市为例,2019、2020年叮咚买菜商品销售毛利率均高于永辉超市,推测与前置仓较高商品定价、以及前置仓多为包装菜有关。2019、 2020叮咚买菜综合毛利率均低于永辉超市,主因线下超市可通过商品吸引客流,通过店铺租金、商品后台费等收入实现“流量变现”,而前置仓公司仅有会员收入等非商品收入。每日优鲜疫情期间毛利率大幅提升,随后回落至较低毛利率水平。2018-2020年,每日优鲜毛利率分别为8.6%/8.7%/19.4%, 2020年毛利率大幅提升主因20Q1疫情期间每日优鲜毛利率大幅提升至30.2%,21Q1每日优鲜毛利率回落至12.3%,显示出商品运营效率和叮咚买菜间较大的差距。2.2.2 履约费用:最后一公里配送费用占比最高履约费用包括:①最后一公里配送费、②前置仓租金、③城市仓至前置仓配送费等。最后一公里配送费占比最高,其中骑手提成部分相对刚性。最后一公里配送由骑手负责,由于骑手薪资由底薪与单均提成构成,因此配送费用规模效应较弱。2020-21Q1叮咚买菜、每日优鲜最后一公里配送费率均维持在20%左右,约占整体履约费用的2/3。租金、城市仓至前置仓配送费具有规模效应。以叮咚买菜为例,2019至2020年,租金+城市仓配送费用率从17.6%降至13.5%。对标相似行业,配送费用率有一定下降空间若单均配送费用降至7元左右,最后一公里配送费用率将降至12.8%。21Q1叮咚买菜单均配送费用为12.7元,单均配送费用较高推测主要因为大规模开拓新仓导致单仓订单密度不足所致。对比相似行业,美团外卖1P订单配送费用稳定在7.2元左右。假设叮咚买菜单均配送费用降至7元,对照现有单均收入,则配送费用率将降至12.8%。2.2.3 补贴:应更聚焦目标客群的获取与维护每日优鲜补贴强度更高。前置仓补贴分两类,1)销售商品的补贴,会计上直接抵减收入,可以用GMV/收入指标衡量补贴程度。2)拉新补贴计入销售费用可用销售费用率衡量。21Q1叮咚买菜 GMV/收入达113%,销售费用率8%,每日优鲜补贴强度更高。补贴应更聚焦目标客群的获取与维护。每日优鲜补贴强度更高,但获客成本却高于叮咚买菜,这可能与有效用户GMV占比较低有关。前置仓模式定位中高客群,单纯依赖补贴吸引“薅羊毛”用户效用较低,应更聚焦目标客群的获取与维护。2.3 订单量:叮咚买菜订单量大幅领先叮咚买菜订单量大幅领先于每日优鲜。2020年叮咚买菜订单量达到2亿单,同比增长111%,而每日优鲜有效用户订单量为6510 万,同比仅增长10.2%。假设有效用户订单量占总订单数比例为81%,则2020年每日优鲜订单量为8037万单。叮咚买菜订单量大幅领先主因:1)前置仓数量更多,2)单仓订单量更大。2.3.1 前置仓数量:叮咚买菜按区域迅速扩城,21Q1覆盖29个城市950个前置仓叮咚买菜迅速扩城,21Q1覆盖29个城市950个前置仓。2019-21Q1叮咚买菜覆盖城市数量从5个增长至29个,拥有950个前置仓,月GMV破亿城市达5个,单个城市月GMV虽然从7900万降至4900万,但依然高于每日优鲜的4000万,显示出有效的区域拓展策略。长期看,叮咚买菜区域拓展策略更为合理。前置仓在一个城市订单分布呈现蜂窝状,当某个区域订单量超过单仓需求后就会增加前置仓数量,因此前置仓一般按区域、城市拓张。叮咚买菜按区域拓城,有利于区域供应链建设。每日优鲜拓城主要覆盖一二线省会城市,短期需求大但由于城市较为分散长期供应链成本高。2.3.2 单仓订单量:成熟仓订单量大幅高于均值,对配送成本有较大影响标准前置仓配置:根据每日优鲜招股书公布的前置仓数据,单仓面积一般在300平米左右,SKU 4300个,每个前置仓配备1名经理、5-10名分拣和库存员工以及10-20名配送员。平均每个配送员每天配送50单,每单配送时长约39分钟。单仓库存周转率 3.8天,损耗率2.5%。成熟仓日均订单规模大幅高于平均值,单仓订单量对配送成本有较大影响。以叮咚买菜为例,成熟仓日均订单量2000单,而单仓平均值只有815单,考虑到成熟仓培育需要时间,预计新仓拖累单仓平均订单表现。订单规模严重影响配送员效率,成熟仓每个骑手日均配送85单,而平均值只有48单。考虑到配送员工资一般有最低保障,因此不断开新仓对配送成本有较大影响。2.3.3 单仓订单量:由复购率驱动,高客单价影响消费频率单仓订单增长靠复购。2018年至21Q1,叮咚买菜单用户月均交易订单量维持在3单以上,而每日优鲜月均交易订单量不足1单,复购率是单用户月均交易订单量差异的主因。叮咚买菜存量用户贡献绝大多数GMV亦能验证复购率重要性。根据叮咚买菜招股书,存量用户GMV贡献率从18Q1的51.9%增长至21Q1的81.6%,存量用户持续复购驱动GMV不断增长。高客单价影响频率。每日优鲜客单价始终高于叮咚买菜,21Q1每日优鲜客单价89.6元而叮咚买菜客单价61.7元,高客单价可能是抑制购物频率原因之一。2.3.4 单仓订单量:核心用户复购率更高以会员为代表的核心用户复购率更高。根据叮咚买菜招股书,21Q1占总用户比例22%的会员用户贡献47%的GMV,客单价为整体的107%,月交易订单量为整体的1.9倍。叮咚买菜会员12月、24月复购率分别达到64.2%、70.5%,自会员计划发布至今留存率 48.8%。与此相似,2020年1月占总用户比例31%的盒马核心用户贡献67%的GMV。2.4 核心竞争力:零售最终是供应链的比拼零售最终是供应链的比拼,强供应链能力最终体现为更低的采购成本、有竞争力的销售价格、更大的销售规模。提升供应链的方式包括:增加商品直采比例、与供应链上游深度合作、增强商品运营能力等。盒马、叮咚买菜供应链能力更为突出从商品售价看,盒马、叮咚买菜有较强供应链能力。上海地区盒马商品价格优势明显,北京地区叮咚买菜价格略有优势。上海地区,根据抽样的4大品类15种商品看,盒马在9种商品上面有价格优势。此外叮咚买菜在上海地区生鲜品类有一定价格优势。北京地区,叮咚在6种商品上面有价格优势。三、增强供应链能力提毛利,扩大会员规模增单量3.1.1 供应链:加大自有品牌商品建设,增强商品运营能力加大自有品牌商品的建设。自有品牌商品拥有更低的采购成本,既可降低销售价格提升价格竞争力,又可提升毛利率增强盈利能力。此外,自有品牌商品亦能增加商品独特性,增强零售商区分度。叮咚:2020年7月首次推出自有品牌商品,21Q1自有品牌销售占比3.3%,上海区域销售占比8.1%。以2020年7月推出日日鲜猪肉为例,叮咚自建猪肉加工厂深度参与到加工环节,不仅价格更具吸引力,毛利率也更高,21Q1日日鲜猪肉占猪肉销售比例40%。盒马:自有品牌商品建设较早,已形成盒马工坊、日日鲜、帝皇鲜、盒马MAX等系列品类。根据盒马商品采销总经理赵家钰透露,2020年盒马自有品牌销售达到20%,相比2019年翻一倍。2020年盒马推出超20000款新品,其中6000多款为盒马自有品牌。3.1.2 供应链:加大预制半成品建设,提升毛利率加大预制半成品的建设。预制半成品也叫3R商品,能满足消费者对方便、健康的需求,随着生活节奏加快,备受消费者喜爱,2019年盒马自有品牌中消费者接受度最高的就是3R商品。预制半成品拥有更高的毛利率,以日本7-11为例,FY2021其加工食品毛利率高达39.4%,远高于生鲜16%左右的毛利率。叮咚买菜、盒马积极布局预制半成品。叮咚买菜已推出“拳击小龙虾”等预制半成品。盒马预制半成品布局更为领先,2017年即树立预制半成品品牌盒马工坊,2020年7月全国所有门店盒马工坊的单月销售额突破1亿元,占据盒马自有品牌销售额近40%。3.3 会员:拓展会员规模,增强用户粘性会员用户具备高粘性,可提升订单增长的持续性。如前所述,会员的订单贡献量远高于普通用户。21Q1占叮咚买菜总用户比例22%的会员用户贡献47%的GMV,客单价为均值的107%,月交易订单量为均值的1.9倍,拓展会员规模可提升订单持续增长性。采用“激励措施” ,积极拓展会员规模,抢占核心用户。由于会员群体的高价值和稀缺性,通过一定激励措施推动更多普通用户成为会员可抢占核心用户、提升订单量增长的持续性。以叮咚买菜为例,通过与爱奇艺、喜马拉雅等公司进行“会员联名”活动,变相降低会员费用,积极拓展会员规模。21Q1会员规模达152万,会员费收入达4500万。Costco通过商品引流会员费变现的方式,目前暂不适用于前置仓模式。FY2016-FY2020,Costco会员费收入贡献70%左右运营利润。与此对比,21Q1叮咚买菜会员费收入4500万,占毛利比例为6%。国内前置仓模式寄希望于通过会员收入提升盈利能力任重道远,主要因为覆盖用户规模及ARPPU有限,会员的作用更多在于提升用户粘性。会员规模取决于服务面向的人群,前置仓模式覆盖用户规模有限。Costco通过低价吸引用户购买会员,在美国属于大众消费。而前置仓典型用户为:乐意为便捷与高质量服务支付溢价的用户,规模有限。FY2020 Costco会员规模达到1.06亿,与此对比, 21Q1叮咚买菜会员用户规模152万,会员渗透率22%。会员ARPPU取决于所提供的服务丰富度。21Q1叮咚买菜会员年ARPPU118元,与此对比,FY2020 Costco 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19:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"滴滴出行遭下架后,中国出行市场迎来洗牌期?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2149422223","media":"孙美娜","summary":"7月4日,网信中国发布了关于下架滴滴出行App的通报。根据网信中国通报,经检验核实,滴滴出行App存在严重违法违规收集使用个人信息问题。就在滴滴被下架档口,中国多家出行公司开始出现新动作:7月8日,有消息称美团旗下出行服务聚合平台美团打车App正式开通北京区域服务,北京正是滴滴总部所在地。多年来,滴滴一直处于市场支配地位,占据90%以上的市场份额。该平台遭遇下架后,也相当于给了出行赛道一众对手以新机会。","content":"<html><body><div><p>7月4日,网信中国发布了关于下架<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">滴滴</a>出行App的通报。根据网信中国通报,经检验核实,滴滴出行App(下称滴滴)存在严重违法违规收集使用个人信息问题。随后滴滴在各大应用商店下架。7月7日,滴滴从微信小程序、支付宝小程序、官网全面下架。</p><p>就在滴滴被下架档口,中国多家出行公司开始出现新动作: </p><p>7月8日,有消息称美团旗下出行服务聚合平台美团打车App正式开通北京区域服务,北京正是滴滴总部所在地。有消息称,美团打车近期还推出了千元大奖招募新司机的活动,可享受每日总流水增加20%和最高达千元的冲单奖励。</p><p>不甘示弱的高德打车也在线下线上投入大量广告,推出“新用户打车低至一元,100元优惠券等你领”活动。在司机端,高德打车也紧急推出免佣活动,吸引更多的司机来注册,转移到高德的各个平台上,有网友在社交平台曝出“高德所有平台免抽佣4天”。</p><p>同日,一张疑似国有出行服务公司T3出行安全部门领导发的部门内群聊截图流传网上。截图内容写道,“面临千载难逢的发展机遇,经昨夜公司经管层紧急会议决定,T3出行紧急调整开城计划,本月内要连开15城,日均单量突破百万,牢固树立中国网约车第二地位,今天起全员开启战斗模式……”</p><p><img src=\"https://diting-hetu.iyiou.com/16257453158331.jpg\" title=\"16257453158331.jpg\"/></p><p>而就在该内容流出的前一天,由T3出行关联公司南京领行科技全资持股的江苏领行智联科技有限公司成立。该公司法定代表人为T3出行CEO崔大勇,注册资本3500万人民币,经营范围包括智能车载设备销售、人工智能应用软件开发、人工智能硬件销售、汽车租赁等。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601238\">广汽集团</a>旗下出行平台如祺出行也于7月5日在官方<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WB\">微博</a>发出一张宣传海报,在显著位置强调“国企背景大平台”,同时送出最高150元的新人礼包。</p><p><img src=\"https://diting-hetu.iyiou.com/16257453435386.jpg\" title=\"16257453435386.jpg\"/></p><p>除了上述公司为了抢占市场份额各展拳脚,字节跳动也被传加入了此次混战。7月5日,有字节员工在脉脉上爆料称,字节跳动的打车软件“跳动出行”小组已成立,将在下周五(7月16日)上线H5版本,并且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DYIN\">抖音</a>app会进行导流。但北京字节跳动相关负责人随后回应称,这是谣言,该公司没有打车项目。</p><p>截止2021年3月31日,在国内,滴滴拥有3.77亿年活跃用户,月平均活跃用户数为1.56亿。多年来,滴滴一直处于市场支配地位,占据90%以上的市场份额。该平台遭遇下架后,也相当于给了出行赛道一众对手以新机会。因此,各家都在拼尽全力抢占市场份额,而究竟谁会脱颖而出,只有时间能给出答案。</p></div></body></html>","source":"iyiou_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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href=https://www.iyiou.com/news/202107081019608><strong>孙美娜</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月4日,网信中国发布了关于下架滴滴出行App的通报。根据网信中国通报,经检验核实,滴滴出行App(下称滴滴)存在严重违法违规收集使用个人信息问题。随后滴滴在各大应用商店下架。7月7日,滴滴从微信小程序、支付宝小程序、官网全面下架。就在滴滴被下架档口,中国多家出行公司开始出现新动作: 7月8日,有消息称美团旗下出行服务聚合平台美团打车App正式开通北京区域服务,北京正是滴滴总部所在地。有消息称,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.iyiou.com/news/202107081019608\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ea7ede672eda39f3803f5271d88222","relate_stocks":{"DIDI":"滴滴(已退市)"},"source_url":"https://www.iyiou.com/news/202107081019608","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2149422223","content_text":"7月4日,网信中国发布了关于下架滴滴出行App的通报。根据网信中国通报,经检验核实,滴滴出行App(下称滴滴)存在严重违法违规收集使用个人信息问题。随后滴滴在各大应用商店下架。7月7日,滴滴从微信小程序、支付宝小程序、官网全面下架。就在滴滴被下架档口,中国多家出行公司开始出现新动作: 7月8日,有消息称美团旗下出行服务聚合平台美团打车App正式开通北京区域服务,北京正是滴滴总部所在地。有消息称,美团打车近期还推出了千元大奖招募新司机的活动,可享受每日总流水增加20%和最高达千元的冲单奖励。不甘示弱的高德打车也在线下线上投入大量广告,推出“新用户打车低至一元,100元优惠券等你领”活动。在司机端,高德打车也紧急推出免佣活动,吸引更多的司机来注册,转移到高德的各个平台上,有网友在社交平台曝出“高德所有平台免抽佣4天”。同日,一张疑似国有出行服务公司T3出行安全部门领导发的部门内群聊截图流传网上。截图内容写道,“面临千载难逢的发展机遇,经昨夜公司经管层紧急会议决定,T3出行紧急调整开城计划,本月内要连开15城,日均单量突破百万,牢固树立中国网约车第二地位,今天起全员开启战斗模式……”而就在该内容流出的前一天,由T3出行关联公司南京领行科技全资持股的江苏领行智联科技有限公司成立。该公司法定代表人为T3出行CEO崔大勇,注册资本3500万人民币,经营范围包括智能车载设备销售、人工智能应用软件开发、人工智能硬件销售、汽车租赁等。广汽集团旗下出行平台如祺出行也于7月5日在官方微博发出一张宣传海报,在显著位置强调“国企背景大平台”,同时送出最高150元的新人礼包。除了上述公司为了抢占市场份额各展拳脚,字节跳动也被传加入了此次混战。7月5日,有字节员工在脉脉上爆料称,字节跳动的打车软件“跳动出行”小组已成立,将在下周五(7月16日)上线H5版本,并且抖音app会进行导流。但北京字节跳动相关负责人随后回应称,这是谣言,该公司没有打车项目。截止2021年3月31日,在国内,滴滴拥有3.77亿年活跃用户,月平均活跃用户数为1.56亿。多年来,滴滴一直处于市场支配地位,占据90%以上的市场份额。该平台遭遇下架后,也相当于给了出行赛道一众对手以新机会。因此,各家都在拼尽全力抢占市场份额,而究竟谁会脱颖而出,只有时间能给出答案。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1106,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140756623,"gmtCreate":1625676072662,"gmtModify":1625676072662,"author":{"id":"3516916477871414","authorId":"3516916477871414","name":"虎不威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bcd8ea76531d8087755de84618b3a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3516916477871414","authorIdStr":"3516916477871414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"危机尾中有机会","listText":"危机尾中有机会","text":"危机尾中有机会","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140756623","repostId":"140652181","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":140652181,"gmtCreate":1625656383043,"gmtModify":1710139349579,"author":{"id":"3562281138781374","authorId":"3562281138781374","name":"老王的投研笔记","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba945f192f56be9fd2f1b715782b7213","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3562281138781374","authorIdStr":"3562281138781374"},"themes":[],"title":"滴滴摊上大事了,能抄底么?","htmlText":"\n \n \n 这期讲基本面,下一期讲到底什么时候抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>。以下为正文:我一直认为我党是股民们的好朋友,2017年人民网发文《《王者荣耀》,是娱乐大众还是“陷害”人生》,腾讯股价应声下落,当天跌了4个多点;2018年人民网又发文《拼多多山寨路线能走多远》,拼夕夕股价也应声下跌,当天最多跌了15个点。回过头来,这些票到现在,价格都翻了好几番。所以,投资路上,不要放过任何一个危机,危中有机。我们再来看看这两天闹得沸沸扬扬的滴滴事件,网信办昨天发文说需要对滴滴做网络安全审查,并且停止滴滴的新用户注册,刚又发文全面下架APP,事态发展更加严重了。网传是滴滴把我国的地图数据给了美丽国,以谋求上市。太狗了!但具体的原因博主我肯定是不知道,点波关注,后面我给大家分析。我们先来看看滴滴的基本面。滴滴是领先的一站式移动出行和本地生活服务平台按照招股说明书所列,公司主要业务包括共享出行、汽车服务、电动汽车、海外业务和其他业务。其**享出行业务占总收入98%以上,是公司的支柱业务。共享出行主要指滴滴快车、滴滴专车、滴滴顺风车、滴滴代驾这几块大业务以及其他小业务。用过滴滴的朋友都知道,快车最便宜的、专车贵点、豪华车最贵,顺风车就是拼车。花小猪是2020年从滴滴里面分出来的,主打三四线下沉市场。从2012年开始,滴滴从的士市场开始切入,逐步完善出行业务板块,并且通过横向并购快的、优步中国等优质资产,在的士、快车、专车、豪华车领域均取得了第一的成绩,即使2018年顺风车下架后,公司经历过一段业务下滑,但是该业务重新上架后,滴滴又夺回了全品类第一的宝座。我们来看看滴滴在出行领域的竞争对手,产品种类上,滴滴最全,其他能打的也就曹操出行和首汽约车,在部分地区有一定的市场,市场份额上,滴滴占据着90\n \n","listText":"这期讲基本面,下一期讲到底什么时候抄底<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIDI\">$滴滴(DIDI)$</a>。以下为正文:我一直认为我党是股民们的好朋友,2017年人民网发文《《王者荣耀》,是娱乐大众还是“陷害”人生》,腾讯股价应声下落,当天跌了4个多点;2018年人民网又发文《拼多多山寨路线能走多远》,拼夕夕股价也应声下跌,当天最多跌了15个点。回过头来,这些票到现在,价格都翻了好几番。所以,投资路上,不要放过任何一个危机,危中有机。我们再来看看这两天闹得沸沸扬扬的滴滴事件,网信办昨天发文说需要对滴滴做网络安全审查,并且停止滴滴的新用户注册,刚又发文全面下架APP,事态发展更加严重了。网传是滴滴把我国的地图数据给了美丽国,以谋求上市。太狗了!但具体的原因博主我肯定是不知道,点波关注,后面我给大家分析。我们先来看看滴滴的基本面。滴滴是领先的一站式移动出行和本地生活服务平台按照招股说明书所列,公司主要业务包括共享出行、汽车服务、电动汽车、海外业务和其他业务。其**享出行业务占总收入98%以上,是公司的支柱业务。共享出行主要指滴滴快车、滴滴专车、滴滴顺风车、滴滴代驾这几块大业务以及其他小业务。用过滴滴的朋友都知道,快车最便宜的、专车贵点、豪华车最贵,顺风车就是拼车。花小猪是2020年从滴滴里面分出来的,主打三四线下沉市场。从2012年开始,滴滴从的士市场开始切入,逐步完善出行业务板块,并且通过横向并购快的、优步中国等优质资产,在的士、快车、专车、豪华车领域均取得了第一的成绩,即使2018年顺风车下架后,公司经历过一段业务下滑,但是该业务重新上架后,滴滴又夺回了全品类第一的宝座。我们来看看滴滴在出行领域的竞争对手,产品种类上,滴滴最全,其他能打的也就曹操出行和首汽约车,在部分地区有一定的市场,市场份额上,滴滴占据着90","text":"这期讲基本面,下一期讲到底什么时候抄底$滴滴(DIDI)$。以下为正文:我一直认为我党是股民们的好朋友,2017年人民网发文《《王者荣耀》,是娱乐大众还是“陷害”人生》,腾讯股价应声下落,当天跌了4个多点;2018年人民网又发文《拼多多山寨路线能走多远》,拼夕夕股价也应声下跌,当天最多跌了15个点。回过头来,这些票到现在,价格都翻了好几番。所以,投资路上,不要放过任何一个危机,危中有机。我们再来看看这两天闹得沸沸扬扬的滴滴事件,网信办昨天发文说需要对滴滴做网络安全审查,并且停止滴滴的新用户注册,刚又发文全面下架APP,事态发展更加严重了。网传是滴滴把我国的地图数据给了美丽国,以谋求上市。太狗了!但具体的原因博主我肯定是不知道,点波关注,后面我给大家分析。我们先来看看滴滴的基本面。滴滴是领先的一站式移动出行和本地生活服务平台按照招股说明书所列,公司主要业务包括共享出行、汽车服务、电动汽车、海外业务和其他业务。其**享出行业务占总收入98%以上,是公司的支柱业务。共享出行主要指滴滴快车、滴滴专车、滴滴顺风车、滴滴代驾这几块大业务以及其他小业务。用过滴滴的朋友都知道,快车最便宜的、专车贵点、豪华车最贵,顺风车就是拼车。花小猪是2020年从滴滴里面分出来的,主打三四线下沉市场。从2012年开始,滴滴从的士市场开始切入,逐步完善出行业务板块,并且通过横向并购快的、优步中国等优质资产,在的士、快车、专车、豪华车领域均取得了第一的成绩,即使2018年顺风车下架后,公司经历过一段业务下滑,但是该业务重新上架后,滴滴又夺回了全品类第一的宝座。我们来看看滴滴在出行领域的竞争对手,产品种类上,滴滴最全,其他能打的也就曹操出行和首汽约车,在部分地区有一定的市场,市场份额上,滴滴占据着90","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4879ed4e4f5d6a08c8906f832b916b4b","width":"0","height":"0"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140652181","isVote":1,"tweetType":2,"object":{"id":"5ec27e6f1b744d3181b7e559e727339d","tweetId":"140652181","videoUrl":"https://1254107296.vod2.myqcloud.com/73ba5544vodgzp1254107296/d23b5d9a3701925920541120891/KKZ2nxdPX94A.mp4","poster":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4879ed4e4f5d6a08c8906f832b916b4b"},"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":21,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":781,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":152005357,"gmtCreate":1625239380179,"gmtModify":1625239380179,"author":{"id":"3516916477871414","authorId":"3516916477871414","name":"虎不威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bcd8ea76531d8087755de84618b3a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3516916477871414","authorIdStr":"3516916477871414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"跌得再惨都要记得做t不抛弃,不放弃啊!","listText":"跌得再惨都要记得做t不抛弃,不放弃啊!","text":"跌得再惨都要记得做t不抛弃,不放弃啊!","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a437f56e3c93bfb6ab9dd80d6ea4b503","width":"1080","height":"2089"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152005357","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1321,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156771715,"gmtCreate":1625238780737,"gmtModify":1625238780737,"author":{"id":"3516916477871414","authorId":"3516916477871414","name":"虎不威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bcd8ea76531d8087755de84618b3a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3516916477871414","authorIdStr":"3516916477871414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"以为抄了个低想不到买到半山腰了","listText":"以为抄了个低想不到买到半山腰了","text":"以为抄了个低想不到买到半山腰了","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b85468ae6e55a407b03190765f64065","width":"1080","height":"2089"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156771715","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1028,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":959138449,"gmtCreate":1589810779781,"gmtModify":1704190706646,"author":{"id":"3516916477871414","authorId":"3516916477871414","name":"虎不威","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95bcd8ea76531d8087755de84618b3a0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3516916477871414","authorIdStr":"3516916477871414"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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