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2020-04-21

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@浅酌:$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$难道05是要到0美元交割吗？

2020-03-30

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美原油期货跌至2002年11月以来最低水平\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-03-30 09:36 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.qhrb.com.cn/2020/0330/271433.shtml><strong>期货日报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>3月30日，美原油期货跌至2002年11月以来最低水平，报20.3美元/桶。\n相关报道：\n需求崩溃产量不减反增！太疯狂？油价暴跌背后的“三国演义”\n没有人会想到油价会跌到冷战结束以来的最低点。油价到了30美元已经是对想象力的冲击，而现在已经徘徊在了20美元一线。当然，如果回溯历史的话，油价还有更低的时候，但是从上个世纪70年代以来，美元大大贬值，信用货币时代，什么都在涨价，油价如果跌到个位数的话，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.qhrb.com.cn/2020/0330/271433.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78e4944908df81bfad358b07ba0dc819","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://www.qhrb.com.cn/2020/0330/271433.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2023602391","content_text":"3月30日，美原油期货跌至2002年11月以来最低水平，报20.3美元/桶。\n相关报道：\n需求崩溃产量不减反增！太疯狂？油价暴跌背后的“三国演义”\n没有人会想到油价会跌到冷战结束以来的最低点。油价到了30美元已经是对想象力的冲击，而现在已经徘徊在了20美元一线。当然，如果回溯历史的话，油价还有更低的时候，但是从上个世纪70年代以来，美元大大贬值，信用货币时代，什么都在涨价，油价如果跌到个位数的话，估计多数石油公司都要破产或者转型了。\n在油价暴跌的背后是什么呢？可以说是产油国的一场内讧，沙特、俄罗斯和美国都算是世界头号产油国，在这个三足鼎立的格局中，沙特发动了一场突袭，而俄罗斯在暗中配合，躺枪的是美国，但是美国的身份比较复杂，不只是产油国，还是石油消费国，更重要的是它是世界头号强国，是三国中最强的一方。在短期内，沙特和俄罗斯具有一定的优势，但是时间并不在沙特和俄罗斯一边。未来的历史学家可能会认为这次价格大战是沙特、俄罗斯的防御性攻击，也可能是一次失败的反击。\n在沙特所代表的欧佩克与俄罗斯就新的石油减产谈判破裂之后，油价一路暴跌，着实令人眼花缭乱，一桶油比不上一桶水，更不用说可乐了。这样的价格是不是合理呢？当然不合理，因为没有反映出石油的价值。油价包含着商品价值、地缘政治风险以及金融市场的情绪。油价下跌，对产油国来说肯定是不友好的，尤其是财政严重依赖石油出口的沙特和俄罗斯。\n蹊跷的是，油价低迷的情况下，产油国却发动了进攻，沙特宣布原油日产量将达到历史性的1300万桶，但更令人奇怪的是沙特和俄罗斯之间的关系。克里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫说，我们知道美国的石油部门陷入了巨大的困境，同时佩斯科夫否认俄罗斯和沙特之间进行价格战，他说两国关系非常好，其他国家不应该介入到沙俄之间的双边关系。\n沙特是欧佩克的老大，而俄罗斯是非欧佩克的老大，两个老大之间在2016年达成了减产协议，共同维护油价，本来欧佩克内部已经形成共识，与俄罗斯商谈新的减产协议，但是被俄罗斯拒绝了。看起来是两大产油国之间闹掰了，但实际并不是这么简单。俄罗斯认为新的减产协议对于稳定价格没有什么用，沙特可能在一定程度上也认可了这样的观点。为什么呢？\n第一，世界能源市场的供应方发生了变化，沙特和俄罗斯的双头格局被打破了，美国跃升为世界第一大产油国，改变了产油国的格局，从“二人转”变成了“三国杀”。如果沙特和俄罗斯同时减产，但是美国不减产，即使价格能够上涨，那又怎样？美国才是最大的获益者。第二，能源需求结构也在变化，传统产油国面临着新能源的巨大冲击，这也是沙特王储萨勒曼焦虑的地方，当世界不需要沙特石油的时候，沙特该怎么办？沙特需要为一个后石油时代做准备，但是在这个漫长的过渡时期，沙特需要保持石油的主导地位。\n新冠肺炎疫情暴发之后，全球航空业遭受重创，而且随着疫情在全球大流行，石油需求将进一步受到打击，高盛预计2020年原油需求将同比下降110万桶/日，可以说，原油需求处于崩溃的状态。这个时候产量不减反增，岂不是太疯狂了？沙特的做法算是富贵险中求，绝地一击。借助需求的崩溃，一举击溃沙特和俄罗斯面临的两大共同敌人：一是美国的页岩油生产商，二是新能源。就实质来说，沙特和俄罗斯的价格战，至少在形式上是联手绞杀美国页岩油生产商，因为这些生产商的成本比俄罗斯要高，比沙特要高好几倍。\n油价暴跌，让美国的页岩油生产商备受压力，页岩油革命在很大程度上依靠金融市场的支撑才继续下来，通过大量的举债和复杂的融资，页岩油企业获得了资金，但是油价暴跌，让这些企业面临着巨大的债务压力，页岩油企业的债务高达2000亿美元，今年到期的债务超过400亿美元。如果国家不介入的话，页岩油企业熬不过漫长的寒冬，仅仅依靠企业削减成本、裁员，无法保证现金流，最后可能不得不出局了。\n企业与国家之间的较量，企业是没有胜算的，这是沙特对美国页岩油企业突袭的本质。问题在于，石油产业已经变成了战略产业，特朗普上台之后废除了奥巴马政府时期的清洁能源法案，鼓励页岩油气生产，特朗普还不断为美国的页岩油气寻找买家，甚至逼迫欧洲放弃“北溪2号”。现在一个最大的变量就是特朗普政府会怎么面对这场价格战？美国有很强大的能源利益集团，价格暴跌之后，特朗普宣布要充实国家的石油战略储备，其实也是拯救美国的页岩油生产商。\n美国从上世纪70年代就追求能源自主，现在变成了石油净出口国，不会坐等页岩油生产商破产。当美国政府介入之后，产油国的三国演义才真正开始，美国政府可能会对来自沙特、俄罗斯的石油加征关税，理由是涉嫌倾销。在疫情大暴发之际，页岩油企业可能还不是特朗普关注的焦点问题，但是疫情平稳后，页岩油革命以及美国能源自主是他不会无视的战略。\n现在的油价对石油企业来说是“黑天鹅”，沙特阿美的股价也在暴跌，另外，沙特财政要维持下去，油价至少要在50美元以上，俄罗斯的外汇储备可能会坚持更长一些时间。从这个角度来说，沙特的突然袭击，不会速战速决，有可能变成一个大泥坑，而时间显然不在沙特一边。美国媒体报道说，美国官员也在接触沙特的官员，建议沙特不要向市场倾泻如此之多的廉价石油。另外，沙特能坚持多久更要看特朗普什么时候介入，毕竟沙特是美国安全体系内的成员。(来源：中国经营网)\n（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 责任编辑：李靖琴                                                        \n《期货日报》社有限公司版权声明","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}