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2023-01-19

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href=\"https://www.163.com/dy/article/HRDJ70NI0519DFFO.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b836c62c005198b7955ad90145d2bb8","relate_stocks":{"01797":"东方甄选"},"source_url":"https://www.163.com/dy/article/HRDJ70NI0519DFFO.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2304865819","content_text":"马上要改名为东方甄选的新东方在线股价从2022年5月12日的最低2.84港元上涨到目前的61.9港元，累计涨幅超过20倍，公司市值也超过母公司新东方，主要因为它的直播带货业务突出，股票受到了投资者的追捧，但是这样的业务逻辑能走多久，却是一个问号。从电商干掉实体店，到直播带货干掉电商，谁又知道谁能干掉直播带货？至少厂家直接直播就会比带货成本更低，没有中间商赚差价，这一点就能吸引消费者的青睐。据一位资深消费者反馈，买李佳琦的东西是因为它便宜，如果不便宜了，谁知道李佳琦是谁。东方甄选也是一样，如果将来直播更加发达，厂家都自己直播，谁还会去买东方甄选的东西？所以本栏说，东方甄选的业务未必能维持20年，所以用市盈率的方法来衡量股价并不科学，过高的股价也存在泡沫破裂的风险。东方甄选的股价现在是怎么估值的？投资者认为东方甄选的直播带货销售额大幅提升，相应的利润也会大幅上涨。从东方甄选最新一期的中期报告（截至2022年11月30日止六个月）看，公司总收入20.8亿元，同比增长590.23%，每股收益0.58元。那么现在61.9港元的股价，按照市盈率计算已经接近50倍，这就是说，投资者不仅预期未来若干年东方甄选的业绩都能保持在现在的高位，而且还能有所增长，但是真的能如此顺利吗？从二级市场走势看，东方甄选的股价已经从最高69.7港元向下回落到目前的61.9港元，表明已经有资金开始逢高减持，而且公司营收增长近6倍，股价却已经增长了20倍，东方甄选虽然是一家很优秀的公司，但是股价的过快上涨同样也存在风险，如果投资者此时追涨买入，即使东方甄选股价回调一半，也不会有任何违和感，但投资者的损失却会非常惨重。投资者可以回想一下，某宝是如何打败实体店的？价格！直播间是如何抢某宝生意的？价格！东方甄选的商品，就算再好，只要能在某宝或者厂家直播间找到更低的价格，东方甄选的营收和利润就会出现下滑，这对于股价的压力，是不可忽视的存在。从A股的历史上看，最早在A股市场炒作股票的正是香港投资者，很多影视作品中都有出现。半年多的时间股价上涨20倍，这一涨幅也足以傲视全部A股上市公司，还记得同样红得发紫的以岭药业吗？回调起来哪管什么业绩和成长性。所以本栏说，现在东方甄选的股价已经不再便宜，预期收益和风险比已经不那么划算，这样的股票走势只适合观赏，不适合参与投机。投资者要明白，任何一个股市，股价过高时都不宜过度追涨，即使是港股，也是有可能出现泡沫的。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1023,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}