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Lancezhao
2022-10-05
当总统
老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？
Lancezhao
2021-06-09
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08:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197886521","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。</p><p>今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be9b9d4e66dc190eb9f9eae07561a\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。</p><p>假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。</p><p>每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。</p><p>说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。</p><p>On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.</p><p>比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1044785273\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/12742089e62446e49dd6fd102af60d04);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-05 08:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。</p><p>今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be9b9d4e66dc190eb9f9eae07561a\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。</p><p>假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。</p><p>每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。</p><p>说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。</p><p>On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.</p><p>比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c0b8b70e62c31099a0930308087d87","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197886521","content_text":"马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者特斯拉股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to Twitter (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying Twitter that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180721146,"gmtCreate":1623228122985,"gmtModify":1623228122985,"author":{"id":"3513990691323667","authorId":"3513990691323667","name":"Lancezhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbfd10dd01ae36c389db8fb20d52ccba","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3513990691323667","authorIdStr":"3513990691323667"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>破发","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>破发","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$破发","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180721146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":668528688,"gmtCreate":1664962789544,"gmtModify":1664962792234,"author":{"id":"3513990691323667","authorId":"3513990691323667","name":"Lancezhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbfd10dd01ae36c389db8fb20d52ccba","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3513990691323667","authorIdStr":"3513990691323667"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"当总统","listText":"当总统","text":"当总统","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/668528688","repostId":"1197886521","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1197886521","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"老虎社区精选助您了解全球市场趋势，把握投资机会","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎锐评","id":"1044785273","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12742089e62446e49dd6fd102af60d04"},"pubTimestamp":1664930750,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1197886521?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-05 08:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197886521","media":"老虎锐评","summary":"即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。</p><p>今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be9b9d4e66dc190eb9f9eae07561a\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。</p><p>假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。</p><p>每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。</p><p>说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。</p><p>On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.</p><p>比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎锐评：马斯克戏剧性反转，他到底要干什么？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1044785273\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/12742089e62446e49dd6fd102af60d04);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎锐评 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-10-05 08:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。</p><p>今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c74be9b9d4e66dc190eb9f9eae07561a\" tg-width=\"695\" tg-height=\"295\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。</p><p>假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。</p><p>每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。</p><p>说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。</p><p>On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TWTR\">Twitter</a> that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.</p><p>比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2c0b8b70e62c31099a0930308087d87","relate_stocks":{"TWTR":"Twitter","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197886521","content_text":"马斯克和推特的事情我写了不少。首次看到马斯克买入推特股票，我的反应是马斯克绝对不会甘愿做一个被动投资人，必将对推特董事会发起进攻；后来马斯克正式抛出了收购要约，我的反应就是立刻离场或者做空推特股票，经过一些列计算，我算出马斯克的钱不够；再到后来马斯克开始在推特上挑刺机器人的消息，我的反应就是马斯克要耍赖了…可以说，每一次马斯克有任何动作，我都能精准算出他的意图和他的下一步。但是今天马斯克突然给推特发信，宣布将按照原价收购推特，我看不懂了。今天推特股价受此消息影响，大涨22%，收盘价$52.00，离收购价$54.20一步之遥（下图）。在这个价位又有一个套利机会产生，做空推特，用收入去买美国国债。别看现在马斯克又愿意重新收购推特，即使双方配合再加上监管不阻拦，要结束收购也是1年甚至更长时间。要知道，马斯克首次提出收购要约的时候，正好是4月4日，距今已经半年了，收购的时间是很容易拖得很长的。假设最后收购成功（假设1年），那么做空的损失是年化2.2/52 = 4.2%。但是把做空的收入直接拿去买1年期国债，那么1年的收益差不多是3.9%。也就是说，这个组合最大的损失就是4.2%- 3.9% = 0.3%，可以忽略不计，唯一需要考虑的是融券的成本（今天的融券成本差不多是0.25%，也可以忽略不计）。但向上的收益就很大了，万一马斯克又反悔了呢？或者监管跳出来阻拦呢？或者马斯克的银行们突然不愿意借贷了呢？或者特斯拉股价暴跌导致马斯克钱不够呢？……有太多可能性这个收购案不能成功了。每次看到股价逼近收购价，其实都是暗示做空的机会来了。我是真的看不懂为何有买家会愿意在这个时候用$52买入，还不如去买美国国债。说回马斯克，这是他今天给SEC发的信，一副非常愿意配合收购的样子。On October 3, 2022, the Reporting Person’s advisors sent a letter to Twitter (on the Reporting Person’s behalf) notifying Twitter that the Reporting Person intends to proceed to closing of the transaction contemplated by the April 25, 2022 Merger Agreement, on the terms and subject to the conditions set forth therein and pending receipt of the proceeds of the debt financing contemplated thereby, provided that the Delaware Chancery Court enter an immediate stay of the action, Twitter vs. Musk, et al. (C.A. No. 202-0613-KSJM), and adjourn the trial and all other proceedings related thereto pending such closing or further order of the court. The foregoing description of the letter is qualified in its entirety by reference to the full text of the letter, a copy of which is attached hereto as Exhibit S and incorporated herein by reference.比较吊诡的是，一向喜欢在推特上解释自己动机的马斯克（卖股票的动机，收购推特的动机，俄乌和平协议提出的动机），对于这件事情居然一个推特没发。我虽然说我看不懂马斯克，但心中还是有几个解释，先把问题抛在这里，这件事究竟怎么解读？任何一个看上去很难的分析，后面都是机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":180721146,"gmtCreate":1623228122985,"gmtModify":1623228122985,"author":{"id":"3513990691323667","authorId":"3513990691323667","name":"Lancezhao","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dbfd10dd01ae36c389db8fb20d52ccba","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3513990691323667","authorIdStr":"3513990691323667"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>破发","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>破发","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$破发","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180721146","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":705,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
