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2020-03-13

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@Tony特别帅: 【视频解读能源大战】用简单的白话讲讲石油和大盘的关系、石油美元的话语权、沙特新王储的破局、以及新能源汽车怎么掺和进去了。这年头，真是一不小心，就被历史的车轮碾过去了。$WTI原油主连(CLmain)$

2020-01-06

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@程俊Dream:回顾与展望2：2020年外汇市场谁将唱主角（有机会）？

2019-11-09

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@堕落王者流浪:$黄金1912(GC1912)$ 我突然明白对冲的意义了，我多黄金，空钯金，贵金属类大致走势相同，比如说黄金亏了，但是我空钯金赚到了，我把钯金挣到的钱又拿来加仓黄金，这样黄金的持仓就会被均摊，之后只要黄金稍微回暖，那我就赚到了，同理钯金也一样，这样资金就会开会流转，且风险降低[捂脸]

2019-06-06

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“比烂模式”盛行，美元指数原地踏步 过去一年外汇市场最大的逻辑是什么？是美联储降息么？可以说是，也可以说不是。 说不是的理由非常简单，美联储在降息，美债收益率在下滑，为什么美元还逆流而上？说的道理则需要看更进一层：货币政策反应宏观环境。美国降息一方面是对于全球环境不确定的担忧（美联储说法），另一方面是美国数据的确有弱化的迹象。 然而与此同时，美元最大的对手盘欧元却深陷于更加恶劣的环境：英国要闹着退欧、欧元区大佬德法数据无法直视、民粹主义在多个国家崛起。除此之外，上半年局势不定的英镑、被中美深度影响的澳元及新西兰元都承压显著。 在这种大背景下，即便美元指数第二大对手盘——避险品种日元表现抢眼，美元全年也没有太多的压力，最终几乎是一个震荡原地踏步的结果。 （美元指数周线图） 波动率低迷难以延续 交易新逻辑呼之欲出 与汇市走势疲软同步的自然是波动率的低迷。作为外汇市场最为活跃，参与人数最多的品种，欧元在2018年之后就陷入了波动率不断下滑的窘境，至四季度已经刷新面世以来的最低月波动率。而从K线图上，可以看到明显的处于阴跌模式，和2008-2015年那种大开大合的投机盛世完全是天壤之别。 （欧元/美元期货连续月图） 但是，就像2002年和2007/08年一样，物极必反的道理迟早会出现，波澜壮阔的行情正在不远处等待着我们。有几个因素很有可能在未来1-2年主导外汇市场的逻辑和动向。 可能1：货币政策同步化结束 这种可能性存在，但是就时间角度来看，2020年达成的可能性并不太大。反全球化和保守主义的抬头意味着大多数主要经济体的情况很难走出显著差异化，这也将","listText":"整个2019年，外汇市场用“乏善可陈”来形容丝毫不为过。尽管有着几次“闪崩”行情另几家欢喜几家愁，也有着日元和英镑的上下半场行情，但是最为重要的构成美元指数的纠结明显无法令汇市投资者满意。那么2020年会成为外汇市场风云再起的一年么？ “比烂模式”盛行，美元指数原地踏步 过去一年外汇市场最大的逻辑是什么？是美联储降息么？可以说是，也可以说不是。 说不是的理由非常简单，美联储在降息，美债收益率在下滑，为什么美元还逆流而上？说的道理则需要看更进一层：货币政策反应宏观环境。美国降息一方面是对于全球环境不确定的担忧（美联储说法），另一方面是美国数据的确有弱化的迹象。 然而与此同时，美元最大的对手盘欧元却深陷于更加恶劣的环境：英国要闹着退欧、欧元区大佬德法数据无法直视、民粹主义在多个国家崛起。除此之外，上半年局势不定的英镑、被中美深度影响的澳元及新西兰元都承压显著。 在这种大背景下，即便美元指数第二大对手盘——避险品种日元表现抢眼，美元全年也没有太多的压力，最终几乎是一个震荡原地踏步的结果。 （美元指数周线图） 波动率低迷难以延续 交易新逻辑呼之欲出 与汇市走势疲软同步的自然是波动率的低迷。作为外汇市场最为活跃，参与人数最多的品种，欧元在2018年之后就陷入了波动率不断下滑的窘境，至四季度已经刷新面世以来的最低月波动率。而从K线图上，可以看到明显的处于阴跌模式，和2008-2015年那种大开大合的投机盛世完全是天壤之别。 （欧元/美元期货连续月图） 但是，就像2002年和2007/08年一样，物极必反的道理迟早会出现，波澜壮阔的行情正在不远处等待着我们。有几个因素很有可能在未来1-2年主导外汇市场的逻辑和动向。 可能1：货币政策同步化结束 这种可能性存在，但是就时间角度来看，2020年达成的可能性并不太大。反全球化和保守主义的抬头意味着大多数主要经济体的情况很难走出显著差异化，这也将","text":"整个2019年，外汇市场用“乏善可陈”来形容丝毫不为过。尽管有着几次“闪崩”行情另几家欢喜几家愁，也有着日元和英镑的上下半场行情，但是最为重要的构成美元指数的纠结明显无法令汇市投资者满意。那么2020年会成为外汇市场风云再起的一年么？ “比烂模式”盛行，美元指数原地踏步 过去一年外汇市场最大的逻辑是什么？是美联储降息么？可以说是，也可以说不是。 说不是的理由非常简单，美联储在降息，美债收益率在下滑，为什么美元还逆流而上？说的道理则需要看更进一层：货币政策反应宏观环境。美国降息一方面是对于全球环境不确定的担忧（美联储说法），另一方面是美国数据的确有弱化的迹象。 然而与此同时，美元最大的对手盘欧元却深陷于更加恶劣的环境：英国要闹着退欧、欧元区大佬德法数据无法直视、民粹主义在多个国家崛起。除此之外，上半年局势不定的英镑、被中美深度影响的澳元及新西兰元都承压显著。 在这种大背景下，即便美元指数第二大对手盘——避险品种日元表现抢眼，美元全年也没有太多的压力，最终几乎是一个震荡原地踏步的结果。 （美元指数周线图） 波动率低迷难以延续 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“比烂模式”盛行，美元指数原地踏步 过去一年外汇市场最大的逻辑是什么？是美联储降息么？可以说是，也可以说不是。 说不是的理由非常简单，美联储在降息，美债收益率在下滑，为什么美元还逆流而上？说的道理则需要看更进一层：货币政策反应宏观环境。美国降息一方面是对于全球环境不确定的担忧（美联储说法），另一方面是美国数据的确有弱化的迹象。 然而与此同时，美元最大的对手盘欧元却深陷于更加恶劣的环境：英国要闹着退欧、欧元区大佬德法数据无法直视、民粹主义在多个国家崛起。除此之外，上半年局势不定的英镑、被中美深度影响的澳元及新西兰元都承压显著。 在这种大背景下，即便美元指数第二大对手盘——避险品种日元表现抢眼，美元全年也没有太多的压力，最终几乎是一个震荡原地踏步的结果。 （美元指数周线图） 波动率低迷难以延续 交易新逻辑呼之欲出 与汇市走势疲软同步的自然是波动率的低迷。作为外汇市场最为活跃，参与人数最多的品种，欧元在2018年之后就陷入了波动率不断下滑的窘境，至四季度已经刷新面世以来的最低月波动率。而从K线图上，可以看到明显的处于阴跌模式，和2008-2015年那种大开大合的投机盛世完全是天壤之别。 （欧元/美元期货连续月图） 但是，就像2002年和2007/08年一样，物极必反的道理迟早会出现，波澜壮阔的行情正在不远处等待着我们。有几个因素很有可能在未来1-2年主导外汇市场的逻辑和动向。 可能1：货币政策同步化结束 这种可能性存在，但是就时间角度来看，2020年达成的可能性并不太大。反全球化和保守主义的抬头意味着大多数主要经济体的情况很难走出显著差异化，这也将","listText":"整个2019年，外汇市场用“乏善可陈”来形容丝毫不为过。尽管有着几次“闪崩”行情另几家欢喜几家愁，也有着日元和英镑的上下半场行情，但是最为重要的构成美元指数的纠结明显无法令汇市投资者满意。那么2020年会成为外汇市场风云再起的一年么？ “比烂模式”盛行，美元指数原地踏步 过去一年外汇市场最大的逻辑是什么？是美联储降息么？可以说是，也可以说不是。 说不是的理由非常简单，美联储在降息，美债收益率在下滑，为什么美元还逆流而上？说的道理则需要看更进一层：货币政策反应宏观环境。美国降息一方面是对于全球环境不确定的担忧（美联储说法），另一方面是美国数据的确有弱化的迹象。 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