阿拉丁神的个人主页 - 老虎社区

阿拉丁神

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11-16

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 垃圾中的战斗机 [喷血]

07-10

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 天天买不完的卖单，公司有那么差吗？地板上割肉

06-15

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 每天成交量不缩，股价持续阴跌！谁在买，又是谁在卖？持有股票的无一获利，基本面有那么差？

06-14

$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 垃圾中的战斗机！一把好牌打的稀巴烂！

2023-03-23

万恶之源莫过于Powell，印那么多钱，归根结底就是为了Old monney割韭菜。韭菜硬了，伤到镰刀了，还要喊喊喊

美联储如期加息25个基点，决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声

2023-03-23

地球人应该把Powell，拉出去毙了！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-03-09

M股涨的时候，股为啥不相关呢？马后炮都找不到方向？

观点 | 俄乌冲突下港股为何跌跌不休？

2020-01-18

$中芯国际(00981)$如果你相信未来的世界是人工智能的世界，想想什么是核心资产？从特斯拉汽车自动驾驶的实现，到脑机接口、一个芯片可以解决神经元变你变的小超人一样，海量存储、互联海量信息、记忆变的无比从容、精通世界语言而不用再去每天背单词，如果觉得这一切都还是梦想的话，可能已经离我们越来越近。当这一切已不是梦想，而是即将梦想成真，未来已来时，仔细思考中芯国际的价值，结合5G的妙传的实现，想想千亿的定价是高估吗？14纳米制程的实现是质变，这个质变决定未来它是最有希望实现中国梦的！5纳米、2纳米也许仅是起点，技术无止境，但无疑这是中国未来高科技的希望，加速追赶是必然趋势，再去看看台积电、三星的市值，先进制程的巨额投入，当我们的芯片板块风起云涌时，从资金敏感性的角度看，我们是不是也是落后的呢？成熟资本市场都可以给市梦率的投资标的，我们还在拿PE、PB来估计它的合理价值，看看国家为什么砸几百亿美元投全产业链，一条生产线百亿美元的投资，我们的股票是不是太理性了？最后，祝所有投资者梦想成真！

2019-04-04

$中芯国际(00981)$ 公司是国内半导体行业的龙头公司，大A股的芯片制造企业都上天了，龙头公司为什么滞涨？公司股东是国有控股，半导体大基金的重点扶持企业。上海新开的科创板重点培养该类企业上市，公司所处上海区域，行业影响力、市场规模、技术上都是龙头老大，而新的科创板缺少台积电这样的科技类公司“定海神针”，公司在美国、香港近期一直滞涨，上万亿市场规模，类比台积电的行业规模和市场地位以及对台湾股市的影响，难道不会发生私有化回归科创板的神奇故事吗？公司股价持续低迷，基本面转好，14nm先进制程即将量产的历史机遇下，A股估值这么低的情况下，垃圾公司的市值都比公司高，我想这是见仁见智的问题。拭目以待，公司千亿市值仅仅是开始！小散们手中的廉价筹码且行且珍惜！喜欢请转发！

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02:00","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"美联储如期加息25个基点，决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143226275","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><b>决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。</b></blockquote><p>3月22日周三，美联储如期加息25个基点，令基准的联邦基金利率升至4.75%-5%目标区间，为2007年底、即金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。</p><p>这是美联储自去年3月以来连续第九次加息，也是连续第二次加息幅度放慢至25个基点。市场预计美国加息周期接近尾声，今年底之前或开启降息令利率降至4.25%-4.5%，以应对经济放缓。</p><p>备受关注的决议声明称，美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。<b>有分析称，这份决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声，</b>声明写到：</p><blockquote>“委员会将密切关注未来的信息并评估对货币政策的影响。委员会预计，一些额外的政策紧缩（some additional policy firming）可能是适当的，以便获得对足够限制经济增长的货币政策立场，使通胀随着时间的推移回到2%。”</blockquote><p>该措辞与之前的声明不同，之前的声明表明“持续加息（ongoing increases）是适宜的”。</p><p>在回应近期银行业危机时，声明提到：</p><blockquote>“美国银行体系健全且富有弹性，最近的事态发展可能导致家庭和企业的信贷条件收紧，并对经济活动、就业招聘和通胀造成压力。这些影响的程度是不确定的。委员会仍然高度关注通胀风险。 ”</blockquote><p>一同发布的美联储官员利率意见“点阵图”显示，其中位数预期是显示，2023年末的利率仍为5.1%，维持去年底的预期不变，2024年底料为4.3%：</p><blockquote>预计2023年年底的联邦基金利率为5.1%，12月份料为5.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>预计2024年年底的联邦基金利率为4.3%，12月份料为4.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>预计2025年年底的联邦基金利率为3.1%，12月份料3.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>预计长期联邦基金利率预期为2.5%，12月份料为2.5%。</blockquote><blockquote><b>有分析指出，这说明今年美联储仅有空间再加息一次。</b></blockquote><blockquote><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/111fab0d5436ee43c3c7b28950d9fe85\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"658\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></blockquote><p>在每季度发布的经济预测方面，美联储下调未来两年美国GDP预期：</p><blockquote>美联储下调美国2023年GDP增长预期至0.4%，去年12月料增0.5%。</blockquote><blockquote>下调美国2024年GDP增长预期至1.2%，去年12月料增1.6%。</blockquote><blockquote>上调美国2025年GDP增长预期1.9%，去年12月料增1.8%。</blockquote><blockquote>维持更长周期的美国GDP增幅预期在1.8%。</blockquote><p>同时，美联储进一步上调美国今年通胀率预期：</p><blockquote>美联储上调2023年PCE通胀预期至3.3%，12月份料为3.1%。</blockquote><blockquote>2024年PCE通胀预期2.5%，与12月份持平。</blockquote><blockquote>2025年PCE通胀预期2.1%，与12月份持平</blockquote><blockquote>维持更长周期的PCE通胀预期在2.0%不变。</blockquote><p>数据公布后，美股三大股指走高。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a947c5009c6cfab63e04a0e2564db35e\" tg-width=\"958\" tg-height=\"154\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储如期加息25个基点，决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-03-23 02:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684674><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。3月22日周三，美联储如期加息25个基点，令基准的联邦基金利率升至4.75%-5%目标区间，为2007年底、即金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。这是美联储自去年3月以来连续...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684674\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f09c44f289c2f0d40610768fe6661fab","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3684674","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143226275","content_text":"决议声明删除了“持续加息是适宜的”措辞，改为“一些额外的政策紧缩可能是适当的”，被市场解读为鸽派论调。“点阵图”仍维持今年底利率预期在5.1%不变，今年或只能再加息一次。声明称美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。3月22日周三，美联储如期加息25个基点，令基准的联邦基金利率升至4.75%-5%目标区间，为2007年底、即金融危机爆发前夕以来的最高水平。这是美联储自去年3月以来连续第九次加息，也是连续第二次加息幅度放慢至25个基点。市场预计美国加息周期接近尾声，今年底之前或开启降息令利率降至4.25%-4.5%，以应对经济放缓。备受关注的决议声明称，美国银行业健康、有韧性，但诸多倒闭事件将拖累经济增长。有分析称，这份决议声明暗示加息周期接近尾声，声明写到：“委员会将密切关注未来的信息并评估对货币政策的影响。委员会预计，一些额外的政策紧缩（some additional policy firming）可能是适当的，以便获得对足够限制经济增长的货币政策立场，使通胀随着时间的推移回到2%。”该措辞与之前的声明不同，之前的声明表明“持续加息（ongoing increases）是适宜的”。在回应近期银行业危机时，声明提到：“美国银行体系健全且富有弹性，最近的事态发展可能导致家庭和企业的信贷条件收紧，并对经济活动、就业招聘和通胀造成压力。这些影响的程度是不确定的。委员会仍然高度关注通胀风险。 ”一同发布的美联储官员利率意见“点阵图”显示，其中位数预期是显示，2023年末的利率仍为5.1%，维持去年底的预期不变，2024年底料为4.3%：预计2023年年底的联邦基金利率为5.1%，12月份料为5.1%。预计2024年年底的联邦基金利率为4.3%，12月份料为4.1%。预计2025年年底的联邦基金利率为3.1%，12月份料3.1%。预计长期联邦基金利率预期为2.5%，12月份料为2.5%。有分析指出，这说明今年美联储仅有空间再加息一次。在每季度发布的经济预测方面，美联储下调未来两年美国GDP预期：美联储下调美国2023年GDP增长预期至0.4%，去年12月料增0.5%。下调美国2024年GDP增长预期至1.2%，去年12月料增1.6%。上调美国2025年GDP增长预期1.9%，去年12月料增1.8%。维持更长周期的美国GDP增幅预期在1.8%。同时，美联储进一步上调美国今年通胀率预期：美联储上调2023年PCE通胀预期至3.3%，12月份料为3.1%。2024年PCE通胀预期2.5%，与12月份持平。2025年PCE通胀预期2.1%，与12月份持平维持更长周期的PCE通胀预期在2.0%不变。数据公布后，美股三大股指走高。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650723495,"gmtCreate":1679526017017,"gmtModify":1679535436621,"author":{"id":"3512215775135523","authorId":"3512215775135523","name":"阿拉丁神","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512215775135523","authorIdStr":"3512215775135523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"地球人应该把Powell，拉出去毙了！","listText":"地球人应该把Powell，拉出去毙了！","text":"地球人应该把Powell，拉出去毙了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650723495","repostId":"1151598224","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635969359,"gmtCreate":1646798294534,"gmtModify":1646798294534,"author":{"id":"3512215775135523","authorId":"3512215775135523","name":"阿拉丁神","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512215775135523","authorIdStr":"3512215775135523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"M股涨的时候，股为啥不相关呢？马后炮都找不到方向？","listText":"M股涨的时候，股为啥不相关呢？马后炮都找不到方向？","text":"M股涨的时候，股为啥不相关呢？马后炮都找不到方向？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635969359","repostId":"2218409823","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2218409823","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1646789947,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2218409823?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-03-09 09:39","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"观点 | 俄乌冲突下港股为何跌跌不休？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2218409823","media":"光大证券","summary":"要点欧洲资金撤离，港股受到较大冲击为何本轮港股跌跌不休？我们认为主要是因为港股受到欧洲资金的较大影响。本轮俄乌冲突中港股跌幅居前，超过了美股及A股。这背后的原因是欧洲资金在港股市场具有较大影响力。而俄乌冲突爆发后使得原本就在高位的能源价格再次飙升，这将损害欧洲未来的经济前景并增加了能源供给的不确定性，欧股市场大幅下挫。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote>港股在本轮俄乌冲突中跌幅居前，超过了美股及A股。这背后究竟是何原因？俄乌冲突对风险资产的后续又有着哪些影响？</blockquote><p><b>要点</b></p><p><b>欧洲资金撤离，港股受到较大冲击</b></p><p><b>为何本轮港股跌跌不休？我们认为主要是因为港股受到欧洲资金的较大影响。</b>本轮俄乌冲突中港股跌幅居前，超过了美股及A股。这背后的原因是欧洲资金在港股市场具有较大影响力。而俄乌冲突爆发后使得原本就在高位的能源价格再次飙升，这将损害欧洲未来的经济前景并增加了能源供给的不确定性，欧股市场大幅下挫。欧洲资金的撤离和欧洲投资者风险偏好的下降使得港股本轮遭受到相比于A股和美股更大的冲击。</p><p><b>俄乌冲突后续如何演化？</b></p><p><b>从美国futuur预测网站的押注结果来看，俄罗斯在2022年年底之前最终用武力占领基辅的概率较高。</b>俄乌冲突的后续发展仍会对资本市场造成一定影响。当市场普遍认为俄罗斯获胜的概率升高时，美股将会下跌。</p><p><b>不过即使俄乌冲突愈演愈烈，后续更多国家参与其中的概率也较低。</b>根据Teaching， Research， and InternationalPolicy民意调查显示，美国国际关系专家预计若俄乌发生激烈冲突，美国直接以军事介入的概率微乎其微。美国futuur预测网站也显示，美国或北约其他成员国军事介入的概率较低，而这也与拜登近期的多次表态如出一辙。此外，俄罗斯与波罗的海其他国家发生冲突的概率也较低。</p><p><b>俄乌冲突对于通胀的影响值得关注</b></p><p><b>地缘冲突期间油价上行幅度与冲突烈度和持续时间有着正向的关联。</b>历史上除伊拉克战争外，其余四次地缘冲突过程中均出现油价大幅上行，上行幅度与冲突烈度(以双方伤亡人数体现)和持续时间有着正向的关联。<b>因此未来国际原油价格走势将取决于俄乌冲突局势演变是否可控。</b></p><p><b>俄乌冲突不会打乱美联储原有的加息步伐，未来海外滞胀的可能性值得关注。</b>从历史上来看，当通胀达到绝对高位时，控制通胀成为货币政策的首要任务，即使美股持续回调或经济陷入负增长。</p><p><b>俄乌冲突对风险资产的后续影响</b></p><p>对于美股市场，若美国为地缘冲突的被动方，则受冲击较大；若美国为地缘冲突的主动方则美股受到影响较小。A股市场近年来成熟度提升，地缘冲突带来的利空影响减弱。港股走势与美股市场有明显联动效应，短期内受到的冲击较大。</p><p><b>本次俄乌冲突过后，美股未来走势将继续偏弱。</b>通过分析自2000年以来大型地缘政治事件后美股重回涨势的原因可知，通常支撑美股回暖的主要因素包括强劲的经济数据或较为宽松货币政策等。但往前看，上半年美股都不具备这些修复条件，因此本次俄乌冲突事件过后，美股走势可能仍然偏弱。</p><p><b>2022年政府工作报告有望提高市场对于国内经济增速的预期，地缘政治风险对A股的影响有限。</b>3月5日第十三届全国人大五次会议开幕，政府工作报告显示，2022年GDP增速目标为5.5%左右，超出市场预期。超预期的增长目标无疑也将缓和市场对于经济的担忧。<b>未来俄乌冲突再度升级的可能性不大，港股有望摆脱外围风险扰动，但上半年的修复空间可能有限。</b>港股主要资产(约70%)来源于内地，受益于内地“稳增长”政策支持，港股有望迎来超跌反弹，但考虑到港股仍会受到欧洲投资者情绪及美股未来走势偏弱的影响，上半年的修复空间可能有限。</p><p><b>风险提示：</b>1.美国对中国企业的制裁加剧； 2. 经济超预期下行； 3.海外市场波动加剧。</p><p><b>正文</b></p><p><b>01</b></p><p><b>俄乌冲突下港股为何跌跌不休？</b></p><p><b>1.1、俄乌冲突升级 ，港股受到较大冲击</b></p><p><b>俄乌局势加速激化，全球股市震荡下跌。</b>2月17日，乌克兰政府炮轰乌东部分地区引发争议。随后2月21日晚，俄罗斯总统普京宣布承认乌克兰东部顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克地区“独立”，并下令俄罗斯军队向该地区启动莫斯科的“维和行动”。[1]此后多国宣布将对俄罗斯实行制裁，其中包括美、英以及欧盟。2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京宣布对乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区采取特别军事行动。俄乌冲突升级，全球股市应声下跌，美股、欧股及俄罗斯股市集体回调，港股及A股也受到波及。</p><p><b>俄乌冲突加剧对港股负面影响较大。</b>自俄乌冲突升级之后，市场恐慌情绪急速升温，全球股市集体步入震荡下行区间(20220216-20220307)，其中港股恒生指数和恒生科技指数累计跌幅超10%，而A股市场在全球主要股指中表现相对较好，其中沪深300跌幅为5.38%，而上证指数跌幅仅为2.13%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/119a49fc349717d5d64206a50a1f200d\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"588\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>为何本轮港股跌跌不休？我们认为主要是因为港股受到欧洲资金的较大影响。</b>本轮俄乌冲突中港股跌幅居前，超过了美股及A股。这背后的原因是因为欧洲资金在港股市场具有较大影响力，2019年欧洲(包括英国)投资者的交易总额在港股市场中占比达到12.4%，超过了美国投资者的10.3%。</p><p><b>俄乌冲突对欧洲经济前景造成较大冲击。</b>欧洲能源进口高度依赖俄罗斯，尤其是天然气及煤炭，而俄乌冲突爆发后使得原本就在高位的能源价格再次飙升，这将损害欧洲未来的经济前景并增加了能源供给的不确定性。在此情况下欧股市场大幅下挫，跌幅超过了2000年以来历次地缘政治危机[2]爆发后的最大跌幅。在俄乌冲突爆发后欧元兑美元的快速下跌亦反映了这点。欧洲资金的撤离和欧洲投资者风险偏好的下降使得港股本轮遭受到相比于A股和美股更大的冲击。</p><p>[2]由于2001年的911事件、2008年的俄罗斯格鲁吉亚及2020年的美伊冲突之后分别发生了美国会计丑闻、次贷危机及新冠疫情导致的流动性恐慌危机，对美股及全球风险资产价格造成了较大的影响，因此为了单独考量地缘冲突带来的影响，我们将此三次地缘政治冲突剔除。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1aa6b8c805fb65b657572ad2be830e6c\" tg-width=\"919\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7bb368dba697276c17da4b807af7fb5\" tg-width=\"937\" tg-height=\"713\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0bd7734794597d5c2841ac5a506d81f\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/db8a7267a23cf10ccaccd622ab619bfb\" tg-width=\"677\" tg-height=\"471\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ce7f4c440e51d665524ff4eff26cd1\" tg-width=\"687\" tg-height=\"484\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1.2、俄乌冲突后续如何演化？</b></p><p><b>俄乌冲突会持续多久？</b>俄方已经宣布特别军事行为会持续至完成目标。俄方的最终目标是消除北约通过乌克兰东扩对俄罗斯安全的影响。而乌克兰内部抵抗情绪仍然高涨，并且外部的援助也开始到达。因此俄乌冲突预计在短时间内不会结束。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06031b1b565c4c90d61a15109de35dc1\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"493\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>俄乌冲突的后续发展仍会对资本市场造成一定影响。</b>根据当前美国futuur的预测网站上对俄乌冲突的投票来看[3]，其预测俄罗斯最终控制基辅的概率较高，这与欧美股市的走势有一定的负相关性。因为若俄罗斯直接占领基辅，乌克兰加入北约的机会将大幅下降，这也意味着北约东扩计划受到阻碍，欧美市场投资信心受到打击。因此若未来俄乌冲突难以在短时间内结束，其对资本市场仍然将会有一定影响。</p><p>[3]预测结果样本取自美国一个名为Futuur的预测市场(prediction market)，其中样本总量来自111个预测者的168次投注。因为目前没有其他的可参考依据，所以我们暂时认为此样本结果具有一定的参考性。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9fcfb2f0adfe54a74ced81bf9b8139e9\" tg-width=\"930\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd5aaa853e94eeae8328863f8e23f81c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"412\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>不过即使俄乌冲突愈演愈烈，后续更多国家参与其中的概率也较低。</b>根据TRIP(Teaching， Research， and International Policy)今年1月的调查显示，美国国际关系专家预计若俄乌发生激烈冲突，美国直接以军事介入的概率微乎其微，仅为2.26%。美国futuur预测网站也显示，美国或北约其他成员国军事介入俄乌冲突的概率也较低。而这个结果也与拜登近期的多次表态如出一辙。针对目前俄乌冲突的发展态势，美国宣布对俄罗斯制裁的同时对乌克兰给予军事援助，但明确表示美方不会直接军事介入俄乌冲突。此外，美国futuur预测网站同样显示，俄罗斯与波罗的海其他国家发生冲突的概率也较低。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/273ed12e1251dafdc72816b8713556ec\" tg-width=\"940\" tg-height=\"490\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b4d42b362ef9625d93a4587081a1037\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"502\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/184b9dad8724d5e07c3ee18ced35e039\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"391\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1.3、俄乌冲突对于通胀的影响值得关注</b></p><p><b>俄乌冲突对于经济的影响主要体现在大宗商品的通胀上，能源价格上升对于欧洲的负面影响尤甚。</b>欧洲40%天然气都来源于俄罗斯天然气工业公司，俄罗斯向欧洲输送天然气的常规供应量中的约1/3需要经过乌克兰。而对于煤炭来说，欧洲的主要供应国也是俄罗斯。因此俄乌冲突下欧洲的通胀压力大幅上升。</p><p><b>油价持续上行影响全球的通胀预期。</b>俄罗斯是全球重要的能源出口大国，天然气出口位列全球第一。除能源之外，俄罗斯和乌克兰还是全球重要的粮食出口国，二者出口的小麦占全球的15%-20%[4]。近期受俄乌冲突影响，布伦特原油价格大幅上行，将直接影响全球通胀预期，值得重点关注。</p><p><b>供需情况是影响油价中长期走势的关键，地缘政治冲突对油价的影响也是通过供需传导至价格。</b>20世纪90年代之后，新兴市场发展迅速，原油价格整体呈现涨势，两次车臣战争期间油价也震荡上行；<b>2008年次贷危机冲击全球经济，影响原油需求。在这样的大趋势下，格鲁吉亚战争爆发也未能改变国际油价走向。</b>克里米亚事件对原油供需影响小，因而对国际油价的影响也较小。国际原油价格的涨跌与供需情况高度相关，地缘政治对国际油价的影响也是通过影响供需传导至价格。</p><p>[4]腾讯网《俄乌冲突影响下的国际粮油波动，会波及国内哪些<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000061\">农产品</a>？》</p><p>https://www.163.com/dy/article/H128F7R40552A740.html</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b913e8791109c663bbaba0acbfb0cb5\" tg-width=\"735\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7400de78843abfd5f1850518643ec228\" tg-width=\"732\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7981abc85450567f365bfbdcd79c7d85\" tg-width=\"733\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c4b56586e4c27be9e6ca98beec5e7267\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>战争或冲突期间油价上行幅度与冲突烈度和持续时间有着正向的关联。</b>复盘1990年以来几次战争，由于阿富汗战争、叙利亚内战等时间跨度过长，主要军事行动时期不便界定，故主要使用了海湾战争等五次战争(详见表1)的主要军事行动期间数据进行研究。除伊拉克战争外，其余四次战争过程中均出现油价大幅上行，上行幅度与冲突烈度(以双方伤亡人数体现)和持续时间有着正向的关联。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9037538a22ef1a58cf49aabe8e610e54\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"277\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f03f445272888095f0b9986c4b33923b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"79\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>未来国际原油价格走势取决于俄乌冲突局势演变是否可控。</b>从中长期来看，原油需求旺盛，供给仍然紧张，故原油价格下行空间有限。从短期来看，当前影响原油价格的主因是俄乌冲突引发的供需缺口预期和市场情绪变化。未来国际原油价格走势将取决于俄乌冲突局势演变是否可控。若未来冲突继续升级，油价可能保持在110美元/桶以上的高位，且存在突破140美元/桶的可能性。而若俄乌谈判出现好转，油价大概率已经阶段性见顶。[5]</p><p>[5]<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601788\">光大证券</a>研究所宏观团队《俄乌冲突下，油价如何演绎？》高瑞东赵格格 2022年3月4日。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ace0339774705b082761b6c41a6ffcb\" tg-width=\"918\" tg-height=\"507\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>当通胀达到绝对高位时，控制通胀成为货币政策的首要任务，即使美股持续回调或经济陷入负增长。</b>美国自1950年以来只有三次石油危机期间的通胀水平超过当前(超过6%)。在历次石油危机爆发后，美国CPI受到油价上涨的影响一路上行。之后美国经济增速快速回落(第一次原油危机之后美国GDP增速甚至一度陷入负增长)同时美股呈现震荡或回落态势。但在绝对的高通胀面前，美联储不得不收紧货币政策。仅在第三次石油危机爆发后美联储没有加息，这是因为当时美国正处于降息周期内，而超预期的通胀使得美联储维持较高的利率水平不变，打乱了原有的降息节奏。</p><p><b>近期美联储官员的表态也印证了俄乌冲突不会打乱其原有的加息步伐，未来海外滞胀的可能性值得关注。</b>2月25日，多位美联储高官在公开场合发表讲话，尽管美联储官员大多承认了这场地缘冲突事件带来的风险，但同时也强调美联储有必要采取措施应对美国40年来最严重的通胀。美联储主席鲍威尔3月3日重申，美联储仍打算在3月上调联邦基金利率(上调25个基点)。美联储缩减资产负债表的行动有可能在今年夏天开始。考虑到今年上半年美国通胀仍将维持高位，3月开启加息周期将是大概率事件。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9f7edd24941709f53dd06d84c074fd47\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"631\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1.4、俄乌冲突对风险资产的后续影响</b></p><p><b>对于美股市场，历次地缘政治冲突带来的影响略有分化。</b>其中“9·11”事件重创美股市场，主要由于美国是此次冲突的被动方，而随即科技股走强和美联储降息，冲突带来的恐慌情绪得到化解；在阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争、美国空袭叙利亚战争以及美伊冲突中，美国作为冲突的主动方，军事方面占据优势地位，经济方面表现强劲，因此这几次冲突对美股影响较小；而在2014年克里米亚事件中，美股受扰动时间较长。</p><p><b>A股市场与海外市场的联动效应相对较弱，地缘冲突带来的利空影响较小。港股走势与美股市场有明显联动效应，短期内受到冲击更大。</b>A股市场早期受地缘政治冲突带来的利空影响较大，但随着A股市场成熟度提升，地缘冲突虽然仍会扰动A股市场，但其利空影响逐渐缩小。与A股相比港股更容易受到地缘政治冲突影响。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fa9da2f7021ca37dbf6737918855955\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"452\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f0e9851ac44686235fb20448cb21b62e\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"450\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/245a3d43ed4dbb92a128d762e0adc99a\" tg-width=\"833\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50c3d56fd5f2d6ac4f97394d0422d05a\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>本次俄乌冲突过后，美股未来走势将继续偏弱。</b>通过分析自2000年以来大型地缘政治事件后美股重回涨势的原因可知，通常支撑美股回暖的因素主要包括强劲的经济数据或较为宽松货币政策等。但向前看，一方面当前美国CPI高企，迫于高通胀的压力，美联储大概率将在3月开启加息周期(详见上文论述)。另一方面，受到高通胀的困扰，美国消费者信心低迷，美国经济景气度大概率从高点回落，从而限制美股未来一段时间的回升空间。因此本次俄乌冲突事件过后，美股上半年走势或仍将偏弱。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2c6c6b4abe26be1cdb3bb04643f3b74c\" tg-width=\"838\" tg-height=\"322\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2022年政府工作报告有望提高市场对于国内经济增速的预期，地缘政治风险对A股的影响有限。</b>鉴于近年来A股成熟度有所提升，预计俄乌冲突对其后续影响有限。3月5日，第十三届全国人大五次会议开幕，政府工作报告显示，2022年GDP增速目标为5.5%左右，超出市场预期。而历史上看，我国政府工作报告中制定的经济增长目标大多能够实现，超预期的增长目标无疑也将缓和市场对于经济的担忧。</p><p><b>未来俄乌冲突再度升级的可能性不大，港股有望摆脱外围风险扰动，不过上半年的修复空间可能有限。</b>港股主要资产(约70%)来源于内地，受益于内地“稳增长”政策支持，同时根据前文分析俄乌冲突进一步升级的可能性不大，港股同样有望迎来超跌反弹。但考虑港股仍会受到欧洲投资者情绪及美股未来走势偏弱的影响，上半年的修复空间可能有限。</p><p><b>港股行业配置方面建议关注：</b>1)受益于能源价格大幅上行的周期品行业。2)受益于奥密克戎毒株对全球疫情影响减弱，需求有望复苏的酒店、餐饮、旅游与博彩等行业。3)受益于国内“稳增长”政策发力的建筑公司以及资产质地优良的地产公司。</p><p><b>02</b></p><p><b>市场表现与核心数据</b></p><p><b>2.1 市场表现回顾</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3578c7740ac97c147154ad8cfb51d0bd\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"665\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64295b806048d068941ad6c3023e3d8d\" tg-width=\"754\" tg-height=\"591\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7e0eeee4995c4dc4b842dcc720773d2\" tg-width=\"761\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2 资金与流动性概览</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/04a7d4e3112d4d45371d47d4704e08c5\" tg-width=\"764\" tg-height=\"618\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78d6966d083f66dcd64e4892cd9b2161\" tg-width=\"751\" tg-height=\"291\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7fd95e642724235571fe3b11b92f54f\" tg-width=\"760\" tg-height=\"282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.3 板块盈利与估值</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc8b295c2055fcf9ab98d0f3066e89c0\" tg-width=\"757\" tg-height=\"593\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d08dbebb62cd2ff3892f38143911fb1\" tg-width=\"763\" tg-height=\"843\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>03</b></p><p><b>未来一周须知</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0bf88a28ae888919f7a8ff3133bd531\" tg-width=\"756\" tg-height=\"418\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>4</b></p><p><b>风险提示</b></p><p>1、美国对中国企业的制裁加剧；2、经济超预期下行；3、海外市场波动加剧。</p></body></html>","source":"eastmoney_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>观点 | 俄乌冲突下港股为何跌跌不休？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n观点 | 俄乌冲突下港股为何跌跌不休？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-03-09 09:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203092301691533_0.html><strong>光大证券</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>港股在本轮俄乌冲突中跌幅居前，超过了美股及A股。这背后究竟是何原因？俄乌冲突对风险资产的后续又有着哪些影响？要点欧洲资金撤离，港股受到较大冲击为何本轮港股跌跌不休？我们认为主要是因为港股受到欧洲资金的较大影响。本轮俄乌冲突中港股跌幅居前，超过了美股及A股。这背后的原因是欧洲资金在港股市场具有较大影响力。而俄乌冲突爆发后使得原本就在高位的能源价格再次飙升，这将损害欧洲未来的经济前景并增加了能源供给的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203092301691533_0.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/119a49fc349717d5d64206a50a1f200d","relate_stocks":{"159934":"黄金ETF","510030":"价值ETF","510050":"上证50ETF","512550":"A50ETF基金","513500":"标普500ETF","513600":"恒生指数ETF","518880":"黄金ETF","DWT":"三倍做空原油ETN","GDX":"黄金矿业ETF-VanEck","DGAZ":"三倍做空天然气ETN(VelocityShares)","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","HSI":"恒生指数","UCO":"二倍做多彭博原油ETF","DDG":"ProShares做空石油与天然气ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","SCO":"二倍做空彭博原油指数ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","XPP":"二倍做多富时中国50ETF(ProShares)","BK4504":"桥水持仓","FXP":"二倍做空富时中国50ETF-ProShares","NUGT":"二倍做多黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","YXI":"ProShares做空FTSE中国50ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","DUST":"二倍做空黄金矿业指数ETF-Direxion","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4570":"地缘局势概念股","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF"},"source_url":"http://hk.eastmoney.com/a/202203092301691533_0.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2218409823","content_text":"港股在本轮俄乌冲突中跌幅居前，超过了美股及A股。这背后究竟是何原因？俄乌冲突对风险资产的后续又有着哪些影响？要点欧洲资金撤离，港股受到较大冲击为何本轮港股跌跌不休？我们认为主要是因为港股受到欧洲资金的较大影响。本轮俄乌冲突中港股跌幅居前，超过了美股及A股。这背后的原因是欧洲资金在港股市场具有较大影响力。而俄乌冲突爆发后使得原本就在高位的能源价格再次飙升，这将损害欧洲未来的经济前景并增加了能源供给的不确定性，欧股市场大幅下挫。欧洲资金的撤离和欧洲投资者风险偏好的下降使得港股本轮遭受到相比于A股和美股更大的冲击。俄乌冲突后续如何演化？从美国futuur预测网站的押注结果来看，俄罗斯在2022年年底之前最终用武力占领基辅的概率较高。俄乌冲突的后续发展仍会对资本市场造成一定影响。当市场普遍认为俄罗斯获胜的概率升高时，美股将会下跌。不过即使俄乌冲突愈演愈烈，后续更多国家参与其中的概率也较低。根据Teaching， Research， and InternationalPolicy民意调查显示，美国国际关系专家预计若俄乌发生激烈冲突，美国直接以军事介入的概率微乎其微。美国futuur预测网站也显示，美国或北约其他成员国军事介入的概率较低，而这也与拜登近期的多次表态如出一辙。此外，俄罗斯与波罗的海其他国家发生冲突的概率也较低。俄乌冲突对于通胀的影响值得关注地缘冲突期间油价上行幅度与冲突烈度和持续时间有着正向的关联。历史上除伊拉克战争外，其余四次地缘冲突过程中均出现油价大幅上行，上行幅度与冲突烈度(以双方伤亡人数体现)和持续时间有着正向的关联。因此未来国际原油价格走势将取决于俄乌冲突局势演变是否可控。俄乌冲突不会打乱美联储原有的加息步伐，未来海外滞胀的可能性值得关注。从历史上来看，当通胀达到绝对高位时，控制通胀成为货币政策的首要任务，即使美股持续回调或经济陷入负增长。俄乌冲突对风险资产的后续影响对于美股市场，若美国为地缘冲突的被动方，则受冲击较大；若美国为地缘冲突的主动方则美股受到影响较小。A股市场近年来成熟度提升，地缘冲突带来的利空影响减弱。港股走势与美股市场有明显联动效应，短期内受到的冲击较大。本次俄乌冲突过后，美股未来走势将继续偏弱。通过分析自2000年以来大型地缘政治事件后美股重回涨势的原因可知，通常支撑美股回暖的主要因素包括强劲的经济数据或较为宽松货币政策等。但往前看，上半年美股都不具备这些修复条件，因此本次俄乌冲突事件过后，美股走势可能仍然偏弱。2022年政府工作报告有望提高市场对于国内经济增速的预期，地缘政治风险对A股的影响有限。3月5日第十三届全国人大五次会议开幕，政府工作报告显示，2022年GDP增速目标为5.5%左右，超出市场预期。超预期的增长目标无疑也将缓和市场对于经济的担忧。未来俄乌冲突再度升级的可能性不大，港股有望摆脱外围风险扰动，但上半年的修复空间可能有限。港股主要资产(约70%)来源于内地，受益于内地“稳增长”政策支持，港股有望迎来超跌反弹，但考虑到港股仍会受到欧洲投资者情绪及美股未来走势偏弱的影响，上半年的修复空间可能有限。风险提示：1.美国对中国企业的制裁加剧； 2. 经济超预期下行； 3.海外市场波动加剧。正文01俄乌冲突下港股为何跌跌不休？1.1、俄乌冲突升级 ，港股受到较大冲击俄乌局势加速激化，全球股市震荡下跌。2月17日，乌克兰政府炮轰乌东部分地区引发争议。随后2月21日晚，俄罗斯总统普京宣布承认乌克兰东部顿涅茨克和卢甘斯克地区“独立”，并下令俄罗斯军队向该地区启动莫斯科的“维和行动”。[1]此后多国宣布将对俄罗斯实行制裁，其中包括美、英以及欧盟。2月24日，俄罗斯总统普京宣布对乌克兰东部顿巴斯地区采取特别军事行动。俄乌冲突升级，全球股市应声下跌，美股、欧股及俄罗斯股市集体回调，港股及A股也受到波及。俄乌冲突加剧对港股负面影响较大。自俄乌冲突升级之后，市场恐慌情绪急速升温，全球股市集体步入震荡下行区间(20220216-20220307)，其中港股恒生指数和恒生科技指数累计跌幅超10%，而A股市场在全球主要股指中表现相对较好，其中沪深300跌幅为5.38%，而上证指数跌幅仅为2.13%。为何本轮港股跌跌不休？我们认为主要是因为港股受到欧洲资金的较大影响。本轮俄乌冲突中港股跌幅居前，超过了美股及A股。这背后的原因是因为欧洲资金在港股市场具有较大影响力，2019年欧洲(包括英国)投资者的交易总额在港股市场中占比达到12.4%，超过了美国投资者的10.3%。俄乌冲突对欧洲经济前景造成较大冲击。欧洲能源进口高度依赖俄罗斯，尤其是天然气及煤炭，而俄乌冲突爆发后使得原本就在高位的能源价格再次飙升，这将损害欧洲未来的经济前景并增加了能源供给的不确定性。在此情况下欧股市场大幅下挫，跌幅超过了2000年以来历次地缘政治危机[2]爆发后的最大跌幅。在俄乌冲突爆发后欧元兑美元的快速下跌亦反映了这点。欧洲资金的撤离和欧洲投资者风险偏好的下降使得港股本轮遭受到相比于A股和美股更大的冲击。[2]由于2001年的911事件、2008年的俄罗斯格鲁吉亚及2020年的美伊冲突之后分别发生了美国会计丑闻、次贷危机及新冠疫情导致的流动性恐慌危机，对美股及全球风险资产价格造成了较大的影响，因此为了单独考量地缘冲突带来的影响，我们将此三次地缘政治冲突剔除。1.2、俄乌冲突后续如何演化？俄乌冲突会持续多久？俄方已经宣布特别军事行为会持续至完成目标。俄方的最终目标是消除北约通过乌克兰东扩对俄罗斯安全的影响。而乌克兰内部抵抗情绪仍然高涨，并且外部的援助也开始到达。因此俄乌冲突预计在短时间内不会结束。俄乌冲突的后续发展仍会对资本市场造成一定影响。根据当前美国futuur的预测网站上对俄乌冲突的投票来看[3]，其预测俄罗斯最终控制基辅的概率较高，这与欧美股市的走势有一定的负相关性。因为若俄罗斯直接占领基辅，乌克兰加入北约的机会将大幅下降，这也意味着北约东扩计划受到阻碍，欧美市场投资信心受到打击。因此若未来俄乌冲突难以在短时间内结束，其对资本市场仍然将会有一定影响。[3]预测结果样本取自美国一个名为Futuur的预测市场(prediction market)，其中样本总量来自111个预测者的168次投注。因为目前没有其他的可参考依据，所以我们暂时认为此样本结果具有一定的参考性。不过即使俄乌冲突愈演愈烈，后续更多国家参与其中的概率也较低。根据TRIP(Teaching， Research， and International Policy)今年1月的调查显示，美国国际关系专家预计若俄乌发生激烈冲突，美国直接以军事介入的概率微乎其微，仅为2.26%。美国futuur预测网站也显示，美国或北约其他成员国军事介入俄乌冲突的概率也较低。而这个结果也与拜登近期的多次表态如出一辙。针对目前俄乌冲突的发展态势，美国宣布对俄罗斯制裁的同时对乌克兰给予军事援助，但明确表示美方不会直接军事介入俄乌冲突。此外，美国futuur预测网站同样显示，俄罗斯与波罗的海其他国家发生冲突的概率也较低。1.3、俄乌冲突对于通胀的影响值得关注俄乌冲突对于经济的影响主要体现在大宗商品的通胀上，能源价格上升对于欧洲的负面影响尤甚。欧洲40%天然气都来源于俄罗斯天然气工业公司，俄罗斯向欧洲输送天然气的常规供应量中的约1/3需要经过乌克兰。而对于煤炭来说，欧洲的主要供应国也是俄罗斯。因此俄乌冲突下欧洲的通胀压力大幅上升。油价持续上行影响全球的通胀预期。俄罗斯是全球重要的能源出口大国，天然气出口位列全球第一。除能源之外，俄罗斯和乌克兰还是全球重要的粮食出口国，二者出口的小麦占全球的15%-20%[4]。近期受俄乌冲突影响，布伦特原油价格大幅上行，将直接影响全球通胀预期，值得重点关注。供需情况是影响油价中长期走势的关键，地缘政治冲突对油价的影响也是通过供需传导至价格。20世纪90年代之后，新兴市场发展迅速，原油价格整体呈现涨势，两次车臣战争期间油价也震荡上行；2008年次贷危机冲击全球经济，影响原油需求。在这样的大趋势下，格鲁吉亚战争爆发也未能改变国际油价走向。克里米亚事件对原油供需影响小，因而对国际油价的影响也较小。国际原油价格的涨跌与供需情况高度相关，地缘政治对国际油价的影响也是通过影响供需传导至价格。[4]腾讯网《俄乌冲突影响下的国际粮油波动，会波及国内哪些农产品？》https://www.163.com/dy/article/H128F7R40552A740.html战争或冲突期间油价上行幅度与冲突烈度和持续时间有着正向的关联。复盘1990年以来几次战争，由于阿富汗战争、叙利亚内战等时间跨度过长，主要军事行动时期不便界定，故主要使用了海湾战争等五次战争(详见表1)的主要军事行动期间数据进行研究。除伊拉克战争外，其余四次战争过程中均出现油价大幅上行，上行幅度与冲突烈度(以双方伤亡人数体现)和持续时间有着正向的关联。未来国际原油价格走势取决于俄乌冲突局势演变是否可控。从中长期来看，原油需求旺盛，供给仍然紧张，故原油价格下行空间有限。从短期来看，当前影响原油价格的主因是俄乌冲突引发的供需缺口预期和市场情绪变化。未来国际原油价格走势将取决于俄乌冲突局势演变是否可控。若未来冲突继续升级，油价可能保持在110美元/桶以上的高位，且存在突破140美元/桶的可能性。而若俄乌谈判出现好转，油价大概率已经阶段性见顶。[5][5]光大证券研究所宏观团队《俄乌冲突下，油价如何演绎？》高瑞东赵格格 2022年3月4日。当通胀达到绝对高位时，控制通胀成为货币政策的首要任务，即使美股持续回调或经济陷入负增长。美国自1950年以来只有三次石油危机期间的通胀水平超过当前(超过6%)。在历次石油危机爆发后，美国CPI受到油价上涨的影响一路上行。之后美国经济增速快速回落(第一次原油危机之后美国GDP增速甚至一度陷入负增长)同时美股呈现震荡或回落态势。但在绝对的高通胀面前，美联储不得不收紧货币政策。仅在第三次石油危机爆发后美联储没有加息，这是因为当时美国正处于降息周期内，而超预期的通胀使得美联储维持较高的利率水平不变，打乱了原有的降息节奏。近期美联储官员的表态也印证了俄乌冲突不会打乱其原有的加息步伐，未来海外滞胀的可能性值得关注。2月25日，多位美联储高官在公开场合发表讲话，尽管美联储官员大多承认了这场地缘冲突事件带来的风险，但同时也强调美联储有必要采取措施应对美国40年来最严重的通胀。美联储主席鲍威尔3月3日重申，美联储仍打算在3月上调联邦基金利率(上调25个基点)。美联储缩减资产负债表的行动有可能在今年夏天开始。考虑到今年上半年美国通胀仍将维持高位，3月开启加息周期将是大概率事件。1.4、俄乌冲突对风险资产的后续影响对于美股市场，历次地缘政治冲突带来的影响略有分化。其中“9·11”事件重创美股市场，主要由于美国是此次冲突的被动方，而随即科技股走强和美联储降息，冲突带来的恐慌情绪得到化解；在阿富汗战争、伊拉克战争、美国空袭叙利亚战争以及美伊冲突中，美国作为冲突的主动方，军事方面占据优势地位，经济方面表现强劲，因此这几次冲突对美股影响较小；而在2014年克里米亚事件中，美股受扰动时间较长。A股市场与海外市场的联动效应相对较弱，地缘冲突带来的利空影响较小。港股走势与美股市场有明显联动效应，短期内受到冲击更大。A股市场早期受地缘政治冲突带来的利空影响较大，但随着A股市场成熟度提升，地缘冲突虽然仍会扰动A股市场，但其利空影响逐渐缩小。与A股相比港股更容易受到地缘政治冲突影响。本次俄乌冲突过后，美股未来走势将继续偏弱。通过分析自2000年以来大型地缘政治事件后美股重回涨势的原因可知，通常支撑美股回暖的因素主要包括强劲的经济数据或较为宽松货币政策等。但向前看，一方面当前美国CPI高企，迫于高通胀的压力，美联储大概率将在3月开启加息周期(详见上文论述)。另一方面，受到高通胀的困扰，美国消费者信心低迷，美国经济景气度大概率从高点回落，从而限制美股未来一段时间的回升空间。因此本次俄乌冲突事件过后，美股上半年走势或仍将偏弱。2022年政府工作报告有望提高市场对于国内经济增速的预期，地缘政治风险对A股的影响有限。鉴于近年来A股成熟度有所提升，预计俄乌冲突对其后续影响有限。3月5日，第十三届全国人大五次会议开幕，政府工作报告显示，2022年GDP增速目标为5.5%左右，超出市场预期。而历史上看，我国政府工作报告中制定的经济增长目标大多能够实现，超预期的增长目标无疑也将缓和市场对于经济的担忧。未来俄乌冲突再度升级的可能性不大，港股有望摆脱外围风险扰动，不过上半年的修复空间可能有限。港股主要资产(约70%)来源于内地，受益于内地“稳增长”政策支持，同时根据前文分析俄乌冲突进一步升级的可能性不大，港股同样有望迎来超跌反弹。但考虑港股仍会受到欧洲投资者情绪及美股未来走势偏弱的影响，上半年的修复空间可能有限。港股行业配置方面建议关注：1)受益于能源价格大幅上行的周期品行业。2)受益于奥密克戎毒株对全球疫情影响减弱，需求有望复苏的酒店、餐饮、旅游与博彩等行业。3)受益于国内“稳增长”政策发力的建筑公司以及资产质地优良的地产公司。02市场表现与核心数据2.1 市场表现回顾2.2 资金与流动性概览2.3 板块盈利与估值03未来一周须知4风险提示1、美国对中国企业的制裁加剧；2、经济超预期下行；3、海外市场波动加剧。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":916825113,"gmtCreate":1579323417432,"gmtModify":1704339656157,"author":{"id":"3512215775135523","authorId":"3512215775135523","name":"阿拉丁神","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512215775135523","authorIdStr":"3512215775135523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00981\">$中芯国际(00981)$</a>如果你相信未来的世界是人工智能的世界，想想什么是核心资产？从特斯拉汽车自动驾驶的实现，到脑机接口、一个芯片可以解决神经元变你变的小超人一样，海量存储、互联海量信息、记忆变的无比从容、精通世界语言而不用再去每天背单词，如果觉得这一切都还是梦想的话，可能已经离我们越来越近。当这一切已不是梦想，而是即将梦想成真，未来已来时，仔细思考中芯国际的价值，结合5G的妙传的实现，想想千亿的定价是高估吗？14纳米制程的实现是质变，这个质变决定未来它是最有希望实现中国梦的！5纳米、2纳米也许仅是起点，技术无止境，但无疑这是中国未来高科技的希望，加速追赶是必然趋势，再去看看台积电、三星的市值，先进制程的巨额投入，当我们的芯片板块风起云涌时，从资金敏感性的角度看，我们是不是也是落后的呢？成熟资本市场都可以给市梦率的投资标的，我们还在拿PE、PB来估计它的合理价值，看看国家为什么砸几百亿美元投全产业链，一条生产线百亿美元的投资，我们的股票是不是太理性了？最后，祝所有投资者梦想成真！","text":"$中芯国际(00981)$如果你相信未来的世界是人工智能的世界，想想什么是核心资产？从特斯拉汽车自动驾驶的实现，到脑机接口、一个芯片可以解决神经元变你变的小超人一样，海量存储、互联海量信息、记忆变的无比从容、精通世界语言而不用再去每天背单词，如果觉得这一切都还是梦想的话，可能已经离我们越来越近。当这一切已不是梦想，而是即将梦想成真，未来已来时，仔细思考中芯国际的价值，结合5G的妙传的实现，想想千亿的定价是高估吗？14纳米制程的实现是质变，这个质变决定未来它是最有希望实现中国梦的！5纳米、2纳米也许仅是起点，技术无止境，但无疑这是中国未来高科技的希望，加速追赶是必然趋势，再去看看台积电、三星的市值，先进制程的巨额投入，当我们的芯片板块风起云涌时，从资金敏感性的角度看，我们是不是也是落后的呢？成熟资本市场都可以给市梦率的投资标的，我们还在拿PE、PB来估计它的合理价值，看看国家为什么砸几百亿美元投全产业链，一条生产线百亿美元的投资，我们的股票是不是太理性了？最后，祝所有投资者梦想成真！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916825113","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":371425798443112,"gmtCreate":1731689158860,"gmtModify":1731689961530,"author":{"id":"3512215775135523","authorId":"3512215775135523","name":"阿拉丁神","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512215775135523","authorIdStr":"3512215775135523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$&nbsp;</a> 垃圾中的战斗机 [喷血]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$&nbsp;</a> 垃圾中的战斗机 [喷血]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 垃圾中的战斗机 [喷血]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371425798443112","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":661,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576119814530073","authorId":"3576119814530073","name":"takahashi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f12c7d8784688fa5f83836ec48f9e90","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576119814530073","authorIdStr":"3576119814530073"},"content":"垃圾的要命，破60天线出了，之前重仓来的还好跑得快","text":"垃圾的要命，破60天线出了，之前重仓来的还好跑得快","html":"垃圾的要命，破60天线出了，之前重仓来的还好跑得快"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":635969359,"gmtCreate":1646798294534,"gmtModify":1646798294534,"author":{"id":"3512215775135523","authorId":"3512215775135523","name":"阿拉丁神","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512215775135523","authorIdStr":"3512215775135523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"M股涨的时候，股为啥不相关呢？马后炮都找不到方向？","listText":"M股涨的时候，股为啥不相关呢？马后炮都找不到方向？","text":"M股涨的时候，股为啥不相关呢？马后炮都找不到方向？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635969359","repostId":"2218409823","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326127963210016,"gmtCreate":1720622712350,"gmtModify":1720622713756,"author":{"id":"3512215775135523","authorId":"3512215775135523","name":"阿拉丁神","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512215775135523","authorIdStr":"3512215775135523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a> 天天买不完的卖单，公司有那么差吗？地板上割肉","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U\">$Unity Software Inc.(U)$</a> 天天买不完的卖单，公司有那么差吗？地板上割肉","text":"$Unity Software Inc.(U)$ 天天买不完的卖单，公司有那么差吗？地板上割肉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326127963210016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":650723495,"gmtCreate":1679526017017,"gmtModify":1679535436621,"author":{"id":"3512215775135523","authorId":"3512215775135523","name":"阿拉丁神","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3512215775135523","authorIdStr":"3512215775135523"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"地球人应该把Powell，拉出去毙了！","listText":"地球人应该把Powell，拉出去毙了！","text":"地球人应该把Powell，拉出去毙了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/650723495","repostId":"1151598224","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1151598224","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1679513801,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151598224?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-03-23 03:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed Recap: All the Market-Moving Comments From Fed Chair Powell After Rate Hike","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151598224","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point. Th","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><i>The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point. The move brings the benchmark funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. In the wake of recent turmoil for regional banks, Chair Jerome Powell assured the public that the Fed will use &#34;all of our tools&#34; to keep the banking system safe.</i></p><h2>Fed will use &#39;all of our tools&#39; to keep banking system safe, Chair Jerome Powell says</h2><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will use all its tools to safeguard the banking system.</p><p>&#34;Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity. We will continue to closely monitor conditions in the banking system and are prepared to use all of our tools as needed to keep it safe and sound,&#34; Powell said.</p><p>&#34;In addition, we are committed to learning the lessons from this episode, and to work to prevent episodes from events like this from happening again,&#34; he added.</p><h2>Regional bank issues means tighter credit conditions, Powell says</h2><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the issues in the banking system in recent weeks will create tighter credit conditions.</p><p>&#34;We believe however that events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and business, which would in turn result affect economic outcomes. It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects, and therefore too soon to determine how monetary policy should respond,&#34; Powell said.</p><p>He later compared the banking issues to additional rate hikes.</p><h2>Powell cautions that inflation fight &#39;has a long way to go&#39;</h2><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the central bank still has some distance to cover as it tries to bring down inflation to its longer-run goal.</p><p>&#34;The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy,&#34; the central bank leader said at his post-meeting news conference.</p><p>He noted some progress and also said the Fed will be assessing data and the impact of its rate hikes in deciding how to proceed with policy.</p><p>&#34;Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but the strength of these recent readings indicates that inflation pressures continue to run high,&#34; Powell said.</p><h2>Bank deposit flows have stabilized, Powell says</h2><p>The banking system is resilient and deposit flows are back on track, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said.</p><p>&#34;Deposit flows in the banking system have stabilized over the last week,&#34; he said.</p><p>Powell said the powerful actions taken by the Fed, Treasury Department and FDIC demonstrate that depositors&#39; savings and the banking system are safe.</p><p>The central bank is now undertaking a thorough internal review to see where it can strengthen supervision and regulation.</p><h2>Fed Chair Powell anticipates tighter credit conditions ahead, says “some additional policy firming may be appropriate”</h2><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that tighter credit conditions are likely ahead following turmoil in the regional banking sector.</p><p>&#34;We believe, however, that events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes,&#34; he said.</p><p>&#34;It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects, and therefore too soon to tell it how monetary policy should respond,&#34; Powell added. &#34;As a result, we no longer state that we anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate to quell inflation. Instead, we now anticipate that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.&#34;</p><p>The Fed will closely monitor incoming data and assess the actual and expected effects on tighter credit conditions on economic activity, the labor market and inflation in order to inform its policy decisions, Powell added. He said the Fed is &#34;strongly committed&#34; to returning inflation to its 2% objective.</p><h2>Powell says committee considered a pause in light of the banking crisis</h2><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the rate-setting committee considered a pause in rate hikes in light of the banking crisis.</p><p>&#34;We did consider that in the days running up to the meeting,&#34; Powell said in the press conference when asked about a pause.</p><p>Powell said the reason for the very strong consensus for a rate hike resulted from the intermediate data on inflation and the labor market that came in stronger than expected before the recent events.</p><p>&#34;We are committed to restoring price stability and all of the evidence says that the public has confidence that we will do so that will bring inflation down to 2% over time. It is important that we sustain that confidence with our actions, as well as our words,&#34; Powell said.</p><h2>Fed Chair Powell on Silicon Valley Bank failure, &#39;How did this happen?&#39;</h2><p>At his press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke about Silicon Valley Bank&#39;s failure.</p><h2>Powell slams Silicon Valley Bank management over lack of supervision</h2><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that management at Silicon Valley Bank &#34;failed badly,&#34; while exposing customers to &#34;significant liquidity risk and interest rate risk.&#34;</p><p>He added that stronger supervision and regulation is needed to prevent another string of bank collapses and deposit crisis.</p><p>&#34;My only interest is that we identify what went wrong here,&#34; Powell said.</p><h2>The market is getting it wrong by predicting rate cuts this year, says Powell</h2><p>The market is getting it wrong if it expects rate cuts later this year, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.</p><p>He highlighted the fact that the central bank&#39;s summary of economic projections published Wednesday anticipates slow growth, a gradual decline in inflation and the rebalancing of both supply and demand within the labor market.</p><p>&#34;In that most likely case, if that happens, participants don&#39;t see rate cuts this year,&#34; he said.</p><p>Powell added that what lies ahead for the economy may be &#34;uncertain&#34; but rate hikes are not currently in the central bank&#39;s &#34;baseline expectation.&#34;</p><h2>If the Fed needs to raise rates higher, it will, Powell says</h2><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will conduct more rate hikes if it needs to in order to fight inflation.</p><p>&#34;If we need to raise rates higher, we will,&#34; Powell said in the press conference. &#34;I think for now, though ...we see the likelihood of credit tightening. We know that that can have an effect on the macro economy.&#34;</p><p>The chairman said the Fed will also watch inflation and the labor market closely.</p><p>&#34;Of course, we will eventually get to tight enough policy to bring inflation down to 2%,&#34; Powell said.</p><h2>Fed, other regulators will use &#39;tools&#39; to protect depositors, Powell says</h2><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried to assure Americans that their bank deposits will be kept safe, but stopped short of saying explicitly that even uninsured deposits will be backstopped by federal officials.</p><p>&#34;What I&#39;m saying is you&#39;ve seen that we have the tools to protect depositors when there is a threat of serious harm to the economy or to the financial system, and we&#39;re prepared to use those tools. I think depositors should assume that their deposits are safe,&#34; he said.</p><h2>There&#39;s still a &#39;pathway&#39; to a soft landing, Fed Chair Powell says</h2><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it&#39;s &#34;too early&#34; to say what effect the banking crisis will have, but the central bank leader expects a pathway &#34;still exists&#34; to a soft landing.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s too early to say, really, whether these events have had much of an effect,&#34; said Powell, adding that credit standards and credit availability will be affected the longer the banking crisis continues.</p><p>&#34;I do still think though that there&#39;s, there&#39;s a pathway to [a soft landing],&#34; he added, saying &#34;I think that pathway still exists, and, you know, we&#39;re certainly trying to find it.&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed Recap: All the Market-Moving Comments From Fed Chair Powell After Rate Hike</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed Recap: All the Market-Moving Comments From Fed Chair Powell After Rate Hike\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-03-23 03:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><i>The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point. The move brings the benchmark funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. In the wake of recent turmoil for regional banks, Chair Jerome Powell assured the public that the Fed will use &#34;all of our tools&#34; to keep the banking system safe.</i></p><h2>Fed will use &#39;all of our tools&#39; to keep banking system safe, Chair Jerome Powell says</h2><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will use all its tools to safeguard the banking system.</p><p>&#34;Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity. We will continue to closely monitor conditions in the banking system and are prepared to use all of our tools as needed to keep it safe and sound,&#34; Powell said.</p><p>&#34;In addition, we are committed to learning the lessons from this episode, and to work to prevent episodes from events like this from happening again,&#34; he added.</p><h2>Regional bank issues means tighter credit conditions, Powell says</h2><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the issues in the banking system in recent weeks will create tighter credit conditions.</p><p>&#34;We believe however that events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and business, which would in turn result affect economic outcomes. It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects, and therefore too soon to determine how monetary policy should respond,&#34; Powell said.</p><p>He later compared the banking issues to additional rate hikes.</p><h2>Powell cautions that inflation fight &#39;has a long way to go&#39;</h2><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the central bank still has some distance to cover as it tries to bring down inflation to its longer-run goal.</p><p>&#34;The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy,&#34; the central bank leader said at his post-meeting news conference.</p><p>He noted some progress and also said the Fed will be assessing data and the impact of its rate hikes in deciding how to proceed with policy.</p><p>&#34;Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but the strength of these recent readings indicates that inflation pressures continue to run high,&#34; Powell said.</p><h2>Bank deposit flows have stabilized, Powell says</h2><p>The banking system is resilient and deposit flows are back on track, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said.</p><p>&#34;Deposit flows in the banking system have stabilized over the last week,&#34; he said.</p><p>Powell said the powerful actions taken by the Fed, Treasury Department and FDIC demonstrate that depositors&#39; savings and the banking system are safe.</p><p>The central bank is now undertaking a thorough internal review to see where it can strengthen supervision and regulation.</p><h2>Fed Chair Powell anticipates tighter credit conditions ahead, says “some additional policy firming may be appropriate”</h2><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that tighter credit conditions are likely ahead following turmoil in the regional banking sector.</p><p>&#34;We believe, however, that events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes,&#34; he said.</p><p>&#34;It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects, and therefore too soon to tell it how monetary policy should respond,&#34; Powell added. &#34;As a result, we no longer state that we anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate to quell inflation. Instead, we now anticipate that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.&#34;</p><p>The Fed will closely monitor incoming data and assess the actual and expected effects on tighter credit conditions on economic activity, the labor market and inflation in order to inform its policy decisions, Powell added. He said the Fed is &#34;strongly committed&#34; to returning inflation to its 2% objective.</p><h2>Powell says committee considered a pause in light of the banking crisis</h2><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the rate-setting committee considered a pause in rate hikes in light of the banking crisis.</p><p>&#34;We did consider that in the days running up to the meeting,&#34; Powell said in the press conference when asked about a pause.</p><p>Powell said the reason for the very strong consensus for a rate hike resulted from the intermediate data on inflation and the labor market that came in stronger than expected before the recent events.</p><p>&#34;We are committed to restoring price stability and all of the evidence says that the public has confidence that we will do so that will bring inflation down to 2% over time. It is important that we sustain that confidence with our actions, as well as our words,&#34; Powell said.</p><h2>Fed Chair Powell on Silicon Valley Bank failure, &#39;How did this happen?&#39;</h2><p>At his press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke about Silicon Valley Bank&#39;s failure.</p><h2>Powell slams Silicon Valley Bank management over lack of supervision</h2><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that management at Silicon Valley Bank &#34;failed badly,&#34; while exposing customers to &#34;significant liquidity risk and interest rate risk.&#34;</p><p>He added that stronger supervision and regulation is needed to prevent another string of bank collapses and deposit crisis.</p><p>&#34;My only interest is that we identify what went wrong here,&#34; Powell said.</p><h2>The market is getting it wrong by predicting rate cuts this year, says Powell</h2><p>The market is getting it wrong if it expects rate cuts later this year, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.</p><p>He highlighted the fact that the central bank&#39;s summary of economic projections published Wednesday anticipates slow growth, a gradual decline in inflation and the rebalancing of both supply and demand within the labor market.</p><p>&#34;In that most likely case, if that happens, participants don&#39;t see rate cuts this year,&#34; he said.</p><p>Powell added that what lies ahead for the economy may be &#34;uncertain&#34; but rate hikes are not currently in the central bank&#39;s &#34;baseline expectation.&#34;</p><h2>If the Fed needs to raise rates higher, it will, Powell says</h2><p>Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will conduct more rate hikes if it needs to in order to fight inflation.</p><p>&#34;If we need to raise rates higher, we will,&#34; Powell said in the press conference. &#34;I think for now, though ...we see the likelihood of credit tightening. We know that that can have an effect on the macro economy.&#34;</p><p>The chairman said the Fed will also watch inflation and the labor market closely.</p><p>&#34;Of course, we will eventually get to tight enough policy to bring inflation down to 2%,&#34; Powell said.</p><h2>Fed, other regulators will use &#39;tools&#39; to protect depositors, Powell says</h2><p>Fed Chair Jerome Powell tried to assure Americans that their bank deposits will be kept safe, but stopped short of saying explicitly that even uninsured deposits will be backstopped by federal officials.</p><p>&#34;What I&#39;m saying is you&#39;ve seen that we have the tools to protect depositors when there is a threat of serious harm to the economy or to the financial system, and we&#39;re prepared to use those tools. I think depositors should assume that their deposits are safe,&#34; he said.</p><h2>There&#39;s still a &#39;pathway&#39; to a soft landing, Fed Chair Powell says</h2><p>Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it&#39;s &#34;too early&#34; to say what effect the banking crisis will have, but the central bank leader expects a pathway &#34;still exists&#34; to a soft landing.</p><p>&#34;It&#39;s too early to say, really, whether these events have had much of an effect,&#34; said Powell, adding that credit standards and credit availability will be affected the longer the banking crisis continues.</p><p>&#34;I do still think though that there&#39;s, there&#39;s a pathway to [a soft landing],&#34; he added, saying &#34;I think that pathway still exists, and, you know, we&#39;re certainly trying to find it.&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151598224","content_text":"The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, or a quarter of a percentage point. The move brings the benchmark funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. In the wake of recent turmoil for regional banks, Chair Jerome Powell assured the public that the Fed will use \"all of our tools\" to keep the banking system safe.Fed will use 'all of our tools' to keep banking system safe, Chair Jerome Powell saysFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will use all its tools to safeguard the banking system.\"Our banking system is sound and resilient, with strong capital and liquidity. We will continue to closely monitor conditions in the banking system and are prepared to use all of our tools as needed to keep it safe and sound,\" Powell said.\"In addition, we are committed to learning the lessons from this episode, and to work to prevent episodes from events like this from happening again,\" he added.Regional bank issues means tighter credit conditions, Powell saysFed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the issues in the banking system in recent weeks will create tighter credit conditions.\"We believe however that events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and business, which would in turn result affect economic outcomes. It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects, and therefore too soon to determine how monetary policy should respond,\" Powell said.He later compared the banking issues to additional rate hikes.Powell cautions that inflation fight 'has a long way to go'Fed Chairman Jerome Powell warned that the central bank still has some distance to cover as it tries to bring down inflation to its longer-run goal.\"The process of getting inflation back down to 2% has a long way to go and is likely to be bumpy,\" the central bank leader said at his post-meeting news conference.He noted some progress and also said the Fed will be assessing data and the impact of its rate hikes in deciding how to proceed with policy.\"Inflation has moderated somewhat since the middle of last year, but the strength of these recent readings indicates that inflation pressures continue to run high,\" Powell said.Bank deposit flows have stabilized, Powell saysThe banking system is resilient and deposit flows are back on track, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said.\"Deposit flows in the banking system have stabilized over the last week,\" he said.Powell said the powerful actions taken by the Fed, Treasury Department and FDIC demonstrate that depositors' savings and the banking system are safe.The central bank is now undertaking a thorough internal review to see where it can strengthen supervision and regulation.Fed Chair Powell anticipates tighter credit conditions ahead, says “some additional policy firming may be appropriate”Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted that tighter credit conditions are likely ahead following turmoil in the regional banking sector.\"We believe, however, that events in the banking system over the past two weeks are likely to result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses, which would in turn affect economic outcomes,\" he said.\"It is too soon to determine the extent of these effects, and therefore too soon to tell it how monetary policy should respond,\" Powell added. \"As a result, we no longer state that we anticipate that ongoing rate increases will be appropriate to quell inflation. Instead, we now anticipate that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.\"The Fed will closely monitor incoming data and assess the actual and expected effects on tighter credit conditions on economic activity, the labor market and inflation in order to inform its policy decisions, Powell added. He said the Fed is \"strongly committed\" to returning inflation to its 2% objective.Powell says committee considered a pause in light of the banking crisisFed Chairman Jerome Powell said the rate-setting committee considered a pause in rate hikes in light of the banking crisis.\"We did consider that in the days running up to the meeting,\" Powell said in the press conference when asked about a pause.Powell said the reason for the very strong consensus for a rate hike resulted from the intermediate data on inflation and the labor market that came in stronger than expected before the recent events.\"We are committed to restoring price stability and all of the evidence says that the public has confidence that we will do so that will bring inflation down to 2% over time. It is important that we sustain that confidence with our actions, as well as our words,\" Powell said.Fed Chair Powell on Silicon Valley Bank failure, 'How did this happen?'At his press conference on Wednesday afternoon, Fed Chair Jerome Powell spoke about Silicon Valley Bank's failure.Powell slams Silicon Valley Bank management over lack of supervisionFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that management at Silicon Valley Bank \"failed badly,\" while exposing customers to \"significant liquidity risk and interest rate risk.\"He added that stronger supervision and regulation is needed to prevent another string of bank collapses and deposit crisis.\"My only interest is that we identify what went wrong here,\" Powell said.The market is getting it wrong by predicting rate cuts this year, says PowellThe market is getting it wrong if it expects rate cuts later this year, said Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.He highlighted the fact that the central bank's summary of economic projections published Wednesday anticipates slow growth, a gradual decline in inflation and the rebalancing of both supply and demand within the labor market.\"In that most likely case, if that happens, participants don't see rate cuts this year,\" he said.Powell added that what lies ahead for the economy may be \"uncertain\" but rate hikes are not currently in the central bank's \"baseline expectation.\"If the Fed needs to raise rates higher, it will, Powell saysFed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank will conduct more rate hikes if it needs to in order to fight inflation.\"If we need to raise rates higher, we will,\" Powell said in the press conference. \"I think for now, though ...we see the likelihood of credit tightening. We know that that can have an effect on the macro economy.\"The chairman said the Fed will also watch inflation and the labor market closely.\"Of course, we will eventually get to tight enough policy to bring inflation down to 2%,\" Powell said.Fed, other regulators will use 'tools' to protect depositors, Powell saysFed Chair Jerome Powell tried to assure Americans that their bank deposits will be kept safe, but stopped short of saying explicitly that even uninsured deposits will be backstopped by federal officials.\"What I'm saying is you've seen that we have the tools to protect depositors when there is a threat of serious harm to the economy or to the financial system, and we're prepared to use those tools. I think depositors should assume that their deposits are safe,\" he said.There's still a 'pathway' to a soft landing, Fed Chair Powell saysFederal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said it's \"too early\" to say what effect the banking crisis will have, but the central bank leader expects a pathway \"still exists\" to a soft landing.\"It's too early to say, really, whether these events have had much of an effect,\" said Powell, adding that credit standards and credit availability will be affected the longer the banking crisis continues.\"I do still think though that there's, there's a pathway to [a soft landing],\" he added, saying \"I think that pathway still exists, and, you know, we're certainly trying to find it.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1257,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}