向良的个人主页 - 老虎社区

向良

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2022-06-04

可是人家好好的[捂脸]

为什么说美联储是高通胀的始作俑者？

2021-07-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$记得前天也是盘前长开盘就泄

2021-07-09

$老虎证券(TIGR)$，盘前高开，我慌的一逼啊！

2021-07-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$大清亡了大清亡了

2021-07-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$完了完了完了

2021-07-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$完了完了完了大清亡了

2021-07-08

$老虎证券(TIGR)$完了完了完了

2021-07-07

$老虎证券(TIGR)$完了完了完了

2021-07-07

$老虎证券(TIGR)$跌的确实太夸张了

2021-07-07

因为没办法解释吧，杀伤面太广

@卡库卡酷:$老虎证券(TIGR)$老虎app也是真牛啤，关于自己的负面新闻完全不报[呆住]

2021-07-06

$老虎证券(TIGR)$并没错杀

2021-07-06

$老虎证券(TIGR)$崩了崩了崩了！！！！！

2021-06-29

$老虎证券(TIGR)$有本事再来个10%以上的暴跌！

2021-06-29

$老虎证券(TIGR)$当你看到我的帖子时老虎一定涨了

2021-06-25

香港的牌照呢？

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-06-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$我今天刚骂他就涨了，不骂不行啊

2021-06-22

$老虎证券(TIGR)$有本事给我跌到10块啊！

2021-06-18

$老虎证券(TIGR)$开始屠杀了

2021-06-17

$老虎证券(TIGR)$破了20就搞笑了

2021-06-16

$老虎证券(TIGR)$增发认购就是个笑话[捂脸]

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/838275\">驱动力</a>。其中，住房和交通项权重较高，其对PCE物价指数的拉动也相对较大。向前看，我们认为，<b>住房项</b>通胀短期内仍有上行空间，但在房屋供给持续回升、房贷利率跳升的背景下，预计住房项对通胀的支撑将在四季度回落。<b>交通项</b>下，一是劳动力供需缺口较大提振薪资水平，二是原油供需仍处在紧平衡格局，带动能源价格维持高位波动，预计交通项价格在年内维持高位。</p><p><b>年内美国通胀下行有限，仍在高位。</b>在基准情形下，商品需求在短期内维持韧性；供给方面，供应链修复疲软状态将持续，导致部分商品价格环比仍有小幅上行空间；服务方面，在薪资、能源和房价问题短期内较难改善的背景下，服务价格对通胀仍有支撑。因此，基准情形下，整体通胀（CPI）同比增速虽然已于4月开始回落，但其回落速度将较为缓慢，预计5月通胀同比增速仍将在8%左右水平，年末回落至6.4%左右水平，2022年全年通胀水平约在7.6%左右水平。</p><p><b>一、美联储为财政部融资、提振需求、刺激经济、推升通胀</b></p><p><b>新冠危机后，美联储大举购买美债，为美国财政部进行大规模、高强度的财政刺激，提供了充足的子弹。此外，2020年危机后推出的财政刺激，无论是从幅度还是传导路径的有效性上，均远超2008年危机后水平。财政部的直接派现和补贴，显著改善居民资产负债表，其避开流动性陷阱，使得需求端强劲反弹，叠加供给受阻，最终导致通胀水平在两次危机中的巨大差异。</b></p><p><b>1.1  相较于2008年，新冠危机后财政部更大规模、更快节奏的派现，提振需求，推升通胀</b></p><p><b>美联储为财政部提供关键支持，虽提振了需求，但推升了通胀。</b>新冠疫情期后的两年，美联储大规模扩表并购入美债，贡献了同期美债新增份额的57.1%，而国外投资人贡献了13.6%；相较而言，2008年次贷危机后的两年，美联储对新增美债的贡献率仅有16.9%，而国外投资人的贡献率却高达40.2%，<i>参见4月23日外发报告《美联储与财政部，如何配合穿越危机》</i>。</p><p>可以看到，美联储在新冠期间对财政部进行了强有力的支持，使得财政部可以快速对居民进行补贴和派现。然而，<b>财政部的直接派现和补贴，显著改善居民资产负债表，其避开流动性陷阱，使得需求端强劲反弹，叠加供给受阻，最终导致通胀同比增速（CPI）自2021年1月的1.4%，一路飙升至2022年4月的8.3%。</b></p><p><b>此外，2020年危机后推出的财政刺激，无论是幅度还是传导路径上，其效果均远超2008年危机后水平。</b>经我们统计，美国财政部在新冠疫情暴发后推出了一系列财政刺激法案，包括2.2万亿美元CARES法案、1.9万亿美元美国救助计划法案、2.3万亿美元综合拨款法案、4800亿美元薪资保护计划等，其中，一揽子刺激法案在2020-2021年的实际支出规模高达3.7万亿美元，较2008年国际金融危机期间的3590亿美元，增长约935%。</p><p><b>此外，从传导路径来看，疫情期间推出的法案，包括对居民的直接派现和失业补贴，导致从拨款到最终刺激消费的路径更为通畅，而疫情防控下，居民线下消费受限进一步推升储蓄，加快居民资产负债表修复。</b>2020年至2021年，居民月均储蓄率高达14.1%，较2019年的7.6%显著上行6.5个百分点。在超大规模的财政刺激下，美国经济和就业市场迅速复苏，居民消费强劲反弹，也对通胀构成巨大压力。2021年，美国实际GDP增速高达5.7%，其中，个人消费支出对实际GDP贡献率达5.3%，为1947年以来最高水平。同期，CPI同比增速自2021年初的1.4%快速上行至2021年末的7%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be12bb16c72f0a1aaf698a828258bc64\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"795\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d8e901e129133e6b87b31038a86f1858\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"809\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>通过分析美、英、法、德、加五大发达经济体以及整体欧洲的数据，可以发现，过度的财政补贴引发通胀，并非个例。</b>随着财政刺激程度（赤字率） 的增强，核心通胀呈现出明显的上行趋势。可以看到，过度的财政刺激导致居民收入比疫情前更高，从而推升需求，拉动通胀上行。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12a4a86c1333383e5e1dd63352ed1394\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"750\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>1.2  通胀敏感度测算进一步印证，通胀拉动更在需求端</b></p><p><b>我们通过比较疫情初期物价和物量的变化，对通胀进行敏感性测算，发现需求敏感类分项对通胀的贡献高于供给敏感类分项，即在天量财政刺激背景下，居民收入不降反升，导致需求在2021年疫情趋弱、城市逐渐解封后V字反弹，推升通胀压力。</b></p><p>首先，基于美国经济分析局（BEA）每月公布的PCE价格和物量指数，将通胀子类别拆分成对疫情敏感和不敏感两大种类。疫情敏感类分项主要包括，在疫情初期，也就是2020年2-4月期间，其价格或者数量发生的变化（无论正负），与过去10年的平均变化在统计意义上有显著差异，疫情非敏感性分项则包括PCE剩余品类。</p><p>第二，在对疫情敏分项的基础上，我们将其拆分成供给拉动、需求拉动、和不确定性因素拉动子项，以此来辨别通胀的主导因素。需求拉动的分项是指，在2020年2月至4月期间价格和数量向同一方向显著变化的子类。供给拉动的分项是指，价格和数量向反方向显著变化的子类别。不确定性拉动分项，则是在数量或者价格上，出现统计显著性的变动，但两者并未同时发生显著变化。</p><p><b>通过测算可以看到，基于疫情初期物价和物量变化的比较，需求敏感类分项对通胀的贡献高于供给敏感类分项。</b>但此测算无法对各子项需求和供给的演绎进行推演，并对通胀进行预判。因此，在下文中，我们将分析在疫情的各个阶段，各细分项需求端和供给端的博弈，并对通胀的走势作进一步展望，我们将分别从商品和服务两个角度切入分析。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/923b90db180c465cd19ef9d1d5daa2a0\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"810\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/426573e965298cfb785ba7792c2b92f7\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>二、居民储蓄仍在高位，部分商品价格短期内仍有上行空间</b></p><p>自2021年1月开始，美国通胀水平持续攀升，美联储最核心的通胀观测指标（PCE价格指数），自2021年1月的1.4%一路飙升至2022年3月的6.6%；同期，核心PCE指数也从3.1%上行至5.2%。相较于CPI指数，PCE指数采用链式规则编制，也就是PCE各个分项的权重随着物价的变化而变化，考虑了替代效应，更贴合民众感受到的实际通胀水平。<b>核心通胀的抬升显示，美国高通胀压力已经蔓延到各类商品和服务。其中，商品项下的机动车和零部件、汽油及其他能源品类是推升通胀的主要贡献因素；服务项下，住房、交通、娱乐和餐饮为主要驱动力。</b>其中，因住房和交通项权重较高，其对PCE物价指数的拉动也相对较大。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854313a6eed7f8f10e7b3fa84c0b1015\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"878\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5092e7a6a3fb96446f96b1712040fbf9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"897\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.1供给不足但需求较强，汽车价格有进一步上行空间</b></p><p><b>疫情期间，汽车及零部件价格经历了量价齐跌、量价齐涨、和量缩价涨的过程，向前看，居民手中仍有约2.6万亿美元的额外储蓄，支撑需求维持韧性，而供应链修复疲软也将持续，导致汽车及零部件价格在短期内仍有进一步上行空间。</b></p><p>在疫情初始阶段（2020年2月-2020年4月），突发的新冠疫情抑制了对机动车的供给和需求，导致机动车及零部件的物价和物量同比，均呈现下跌状态。在疫情大规模爆发阶段（2020年4月-2021年4月），美国财政部进行了三次大规模的转移支付，导致居民额外储蓄迅速攀升，而疫情封控背景下，服务消费受限，商品消费自然地成为居民最大支出渠道，最终导致物价和物量同比均持续上升。在疫情爆发后期（2021年5月-2022年2月），受芯片短缺、劳动力供给短缺、以及全球运输体系受限的影响，导致供给严重不足，限制需求，因而物价指数同比上升，而物量指数同比下降。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f50a965b60a0bdac65595d7d4c203dae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"791\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55d8ad9237c0521aca8bda1dcb806b68\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"798\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3516070ddfd2da2c27d504c3c8984973\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"897\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54652f17065a0c7ddc8a2516a621a977\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"885\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>展望来看，需求端，居民在疫情期间积累的储蓄，仍能在短期内支撑需求。</b>疫情期间，财政部对居民实施了3次派现，导致居民积累了一定规模的额外储蓄。根据我们测算，自2020年1月以来，居民积累的额外储蓄规模，已经达到了2.6万亿美元。一方面，额外储蓄使得居民在高通胀背景下，仍有一定消费的能力。然而，我们也可以看到，4月居民储蓄率下行至4.4%，为2008年9月以来最低水平；居民月度额外储蓄规模在4月持续在负值扩张，显示高通胀背景下，居民支出上行快于收入，也就是说，居民消费短期内仍有韧性，但持久性不强。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0459b2c8df1c289f43184a851e1c7ada\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"732\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>从供给端的角度来看，受芯片短缺影响，机动车供给在年内仍无法迅速修复，供需合力，导致机动车价格，特别是新车价格，有进一步上行空间。</b></p><p><b>具体来看，供给端，全球芯片供给修复缓慢，年内预计仍将制约汽车芯片供给，对新车价格形成支撑。</b>今年4月14日，世界最大的代工芯片制造商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>（TCMC）表示，全芯片短缺问题可能会持续，其所有类型芯片的生产产能都非常有限。</p><p>对汽车制造商来说，芯片短缺的矛盾更为严重，因为在疫情期间，芯片制造商将更多供给转移给利润更高的消费类电子产品。因此，可以看到，机动车及零部件价格同比增速自2021年3月的5.5%不断上行至2022年3月的19.6%，成为推动美国通胀的重要因素之一。</p><p><b>向前看，全球芯片供应链在年内仍将受疫情和俄乌冲突影响，对机动车价格形成支撑。</b>全球芯片供应链非常复杂，从产能建设、产品开发到最后的产品生产过程中，需要全球产业链的参与。世界经济论坛数据测算显示，对于机动车芯片制造而言，整体的开发时长需要24-36个月。因此，我们判断，芯片短缺问题将在2022年持续，限制产能，叠加俄乌冲突和上海疫情对供应链造成冲击，都将持续支撑机动车价格维持高位。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0437e10ef77b15549314302320026104\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"694\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>2.2 汽油价格大概率维持高位波动</b></p><p><b>俄乌冲突加大能源价格波动。</b>2022年2月，俄乌冲突爆发，推升全球能源价格走高，也导致美国通胀在今年2月以后进一步上行，<b>向前看，若原油供给不出现大规模反弹，预计原油价格仍将在高位波动，对汽油价格形成支撑。</b>一是，俄乌双方仍旧僵持不下，局势或将进一步发酵，若未来战事继续升级，油价存在冲高可能；若俄乌冲突出现好转，油价大概率已经阶段性见顶。二是，由于近期美欧加大战略石油储备的投放，叠加4月18日，美国内政部表示，将于6月启动新一轮联邦石油和天然气资源开采权拍卖，为原油供给提供支持，一定程度上对冲了油价上行压力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e1c63f6b26d5b2f7da81f175317b42c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"893\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca13b0e0b2f4bbad1a64287a1597f489\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"877\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>三、房价、薪资、能源支撑服务价格</b></p><p>在PCE价格指数下的服务项下，住房、交通、娱乐和餐饮为主要驱动力。其中，因住房（33.3%）和交通（13.9%）项权重较高，其对PCE物价指数的拉动也相对较大。向前看，住房项同比增速仍将在上半年持续上行，支撑整体通胀水平；但下半年，在房屋供给持续回升、房贷利率跳升的背景下，预计住房项对通胀的支撑将逐步趋弱。交通项下，劳动力供给不足，叠加能源价格高企，推升美国交通项价格，向前看，<b>预计交通项价格仍维持高位波动。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a42ab7c9c9bfa4fc56eb79cbaed4eb9c\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"701\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.1  短期内，住房价格对通胀仍有支撑，四季度趋于回落</b></p><p><b>疫情影响供给，低利率刺激需求，最终导致美国房价显著上行。新冠疫情导致房屋补库受阻，压降成屋供给，叠加低房贷利率对需求的刺激，导致住房项PCE同比增速自2021年初的2%显著上行至2022年3月的4.5%，而因住房项在PCE中的权重达33.3%，其对整体通胀的影响较大。向前看，住房项价格仍将在短期内持续上行，支撑整体通胀水平；但在房屋库存回升、房贷利率跳升的背景下，预计住房项对通胀的支撑将在四季度逐步回落。</b></p><p>从美国成屋库存的数据可以看出，一般来说，补库从每年年初开始并持续至年中，在此期间，成屋库存都处于较快增长阶段。但因2020年新冠疫情冲击，并延续至2021年年末，导致2020年补库节奏不及往年。</p><p>现阶段，房屋库存已开始触底反弹，房屋月度供应比率也超过疫情前水平（2022年4月为9%，2020年2月为5.3%），显示房屋供给开始修复。从需求端观察，美联储在今年3月和5月分别加息25bp和50bp，直接导致30年期固定房贷利率在5月上行至5.1%，较疫情前（2020年2月）时的3.45%，高出1.65个百分点。向前看，房贷利率仍有上行空间，对房屋需求形成较大压力。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7eaa9037c5e78123c47d632f58f74e9\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"846\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65dfc08b96d1df0328b232ef45cd5ba3\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"836\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>从历史数据来看，美国房屋价格增速(Caseshiller)一般领先PCE房屋价格指数同比增速6-18个月，而此次CaseShiller房屋价格同比增速已于2021年9月见顶回落。因此我们预计，<b>住房项价格仍将在短期内持续上行，支撑整体通胀水平；但在房屋供给持续回升、房贷利率跳升的背景下，预计住房项对通胀的支撑将在四季度逐步回落。</b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5643c525d7ecc339e45c7bf9a61bbf86\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"894\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>3.2劳动力供给不足，叠加能源价格高企，预计交通项价格年内维持高位</b></p><p><b>劳动力供给不足，叠加能源价格高企，推升美国交通项价格。</b>交通项在整体PCE中的权重达13.9%，对服务通胀的贡献位列住房项之后。交通项的主要贡献项是公共交通，其在疫情后期物量增速维持稳定，但物价增速出现持续上行的趋势，显示需求趋稳但供给不足。一方面，交通运输行业职位空缺/失业人数缺口自2021年4月起持续扩大；另一方面，因全球能源供需紧平衡，汽油、机油、海运价格在2021年4月之后快速上行，推升成本，提振总体价格。</p><p><b>我们预计，运输和贸易业劳动力供需失衡的情况将在年内持续，抬高交通项通胀粘性。</b>4月非农就业人口总数与疫情前（2020年2月）相比，仍有120万人缺口，但4月职位空缺数为1140万人，这也显示，就算非农劳动力人数回到了疫情前水平，也无法覆盖现有的劳动力需求。新冠疫情导致人们选择提前退休，叠加约100万人因新冠死亡，均是在短期无法解决的问题。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c45bb9c78d36524d124f116d167b7608\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"835\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26d4e0e4d22b42d0ed24942b37f91831\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"849\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07026f704a53e824eec5fb455a24dad8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"837\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1965334cd40f4bd7409509a1a0a959f\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"823\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>另外，因全球能源供需紧平衡，汽油、机油、海运价格在2021年4月之后快速上行，也是推升总体交通项价格的主要原因。</b>但如前文所述，若美欧加大战略石油储备的投放，OPEC增加产能，则将缓解油价上涨压力。然而，考虑到俄乌冲突延续，OPEC+增产动能较弱，页岩油产能释放缓慢，原油供需仍处在紧平衡格局，油价仍将延续高位震荡，对运输和贸易物价形成支撑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/52d0e8c9b9a628b0e9eeed44e131d761\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"759\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>四、年内美国通胀下行有限，仍在高位</b></p><p><b>在基准情形下，</b>美国商品需求在短时间内维持韧性。根据我们测算，疫情期间居民积累的约2.6万亿美元的额外储蓄，在短期内对消费形成支撑。供给方面，供应链修复疲软状态将持续，导致部分商品价格环比在短期内仍有上行空间；服务方面，在薪资、能源和房价问题短期内较难改善的背景下，服务价格对通胀仍有支撑。因此，我们认为，整体通胀（CPI）同比增速虽然已于4月开始回落，但速度将较为缓慢，预计年末回落至6.4%左右水平，2022年全年通胀水平约在7.6%左右水平。</p><p><b>在乐观情景下</b>，全球供应链紧缩问题好转缓解供给端压力，商品（新车）价格上行节奏放缓；能源项下，因供给抬升（OPEC增产），其价格环比在下半年开始回落；美联储加息有效抑制部分需求，降低房租价格上行速度。因此，乐观情形下，整体通胀（CPI）同比增速将在4月之后持续回落，并且在年末下行至5.4%左右水平，2022年全年通胀水平约在7.2%左右水平。在乐观情形下，美联储下半年加息节奏将弱于预期。</p><p><b>在悲观情景下</b>，全球供应链持续紧缩，需求端维持韧性，支撑商品价格进一步上行；俄乌冲突进一步升级，推升能源价格整体预期；劳动力供需缺口弥合不及预期，导致薪资增速维持高位，引导服务价格持续上行。因此，悲观情形下，整体通胀（CPI）同比增速将在2季度维持在8%左右水平，并且在年末缓慢回落至7.0%，2022年全年通胀水平约在7.9%水平。在悲观情形下，美联储下半年加息节奏可能进一步增强。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a53adb9f285535ac75992682a58a96e\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"876\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aec01d5746f6721fc334c0616472f508\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"858\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>五、风险提示</b></p><p>俄乌冲突持续发酵冲击经济预期；新冠疫情扩散程度超预期。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1622454134566","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为什么说美联储是高通胀的始作俑者？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为什么说美联储是高通胀的始作俑者？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-04 09:40 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ebijhjr6CyPQ3KwZnw4xhg><strong>高瑞东宏观笔记</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美国疫情以来的高通胀，是美国政府在美联储大量扩表支持下，短时间内大规模派现，供需极度不匹配所致。相较于2008年次贷危机，疫后美联储购入美债比例，从16.9%提升至57.1%，对经济刺激力度大、速度快，避开了流动性陷阱，直达居民和企业，强力支撑总需求。2020年至2021年，居民月均储蓄率高达14.1%，较2019年的7.6%显著上行6.5个百分点。但是，由于政策力度过猛，通胀居高不下，直到现在，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ebijhjr6CyPQ3KwZnw4xhg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e09a7b30204158feaaaf0f4efc19f31f","relate_stocks":{"513500":"标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","OEX":"标普100","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ebijhjr6CyPQ3KwZnw4xhg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2240920582","content_text":"美国疫情以来的高通胀，是美国政府在美联储大量扩表支持下，短时间内大规模派现，供需极度不匹配所致。相较于2008年次贷危机，疫后美联储购入美债比例，从16.9%提升至57.1%，对经济刺激力度大、速度快，避开了流动性陷阱，直达居民和企业，强力支撑总需求。2020年至2021年，居民月均储蓄率高达14.1%，较2019年的7.6%显著上行6.5个百分点。但是，由于政策力度过猛，通胀居高不下，直到现在，美国居民手中仍有2.6万亿美元左右的超额储蓄，支撑需求端在短期内维持韧性。在供应链问题修复不力，房价、薪资和能源价格高企的背景下，预计美国通胀回落速度缓慢，2022年全年通胀水平在7.6%左右水平。美联储配合财政部，提振需求、刺激经济、共度危机。美联储为财政部提供关键支持，虽提振了需求，但推升了通胀。美联储在2020年新冠疫情后，购买美债规模远超2008年国际金融危机时期，使得财政部可以大规模、高强度地对居民派现和补贴。新冠疫情期后的两年，美联储大规模扩表并购入美债，贡献了同期美债新增份额的57.1%，而国外投资人贡献了13.6%；相较而言，2008年国际金融危机后的两年，美联储对新增美债的贡献率仅有16.9%。财政部的直接派现和补贴，显著改善居民资产负债表，其避开流动性陷阱，使得需求端强劲反弹，叠加供给受阻，最终导致通胀同比增速（CPI）自2021年1月的1.4%，一路飙升至2022年4月的8.3%。居民储蓄仍在高位，部分商品价格短期内仍有上行空间。耐用品方面，居民手中仍有2.6万亿美元左右额外储蓄，支撑需求在短期内维持韧性。但供应链修复疲软的状态在年内较难改变，预计汽车及零部件价格短期内仍有上行空间。非耐用品方面，汽油及其他能源品价格主要受全球原油价格影响。向前看，若原油供给不出现大规模反弹，原油价格大概率维持高位波动，制约通胀下行的速度。房价、薪资、能源支撑服务价格。在PCE价格指数的服务项下，住房、交通、娱乐和餐饮为主要驱动力。其中，住房和交通项权重较高，其对PCE物价指数的拉动也相对较大。向前看，我们认为，住房项通胀短期内仍有上行空间，但在房屋供给持续回升、房贷利率跳升的背景下，预计住房项对通胀的支撑将在四季度回落。交通项下，一是劳动力供需缺口较大提振薪资水平，二是原油供需仍处在紧平衡格局，带动能源价格维持高位波动，预计交通项价格在年内维持高位。年内美国通胀下行有限，仍在高位。在基准情形下，商品需求在短期内维持韧性；供给方面，供应链修复疲软状态将持续，导致部分商品价格环比仍有小幅上行空间；服务方面，在薪资、能源和房价问题短期内较难改善的背景下，服务价格对通胀仍有支撑。因此，基准情形下，整体通胀（CPI）同比增速虽然已于4月开始回落，但其回落速度将较为缓慢，预计5月通胀同比增速仍将在8%左右水平，年末回落至6.4%左右水平，2022年全年通胀水平约在7.6%左右水平。一、美联储为财政部融资、提振需求、刺激经济、推升通胀新冠危机后，美联储大举购买美债，为美国财政部进行大规模、高强度的财政刺激，提供了充足的子弹。此外，2020年危机后推出的财政刺激，无论是从幅度还是传导路径的有效性上，均远超2008年危机后水平。财政部的直接派现和补贴，显著改善居民资产负债表，其避开流动性陷阱，使得需求端强劲反弹，叠加供给受阻，最终导致通胀水平在两次危机中的巨大差异。1.1  相较于2008年，新冠危机后财政部更大规模、更快节奏的派现，提振需求，推升通胀美联储为财政部提供关键支持，虽提振了需求，但推升了通胀。新冠疫情期后的两年，美联储大规模扩表并购入美债，贡献了同期美债新增份额的57.1%，而国外投资人贡献了13.6%；相较而言，2008年次贷危机后的两年，美联储对新增美债的贡献率仅有16.9%，而国外投资人的贡献率却高达40.2%，参见4月23日外发报告《美联储与财政部，如何配合穿越危机》。可以看到，美联储在新冠期间对财政部进行了强有力的支持，使得财政部可以快速对居民进行补贴和派现。然而，财政部的直接派现和补贴，显著改善居民资产负债表，其避开流动性陷阱，使得需求端强劲反弹，叠加供给受阻，最终导致通胀同比增速（CPI）自2021年1月的1.4%，一路飙升至2022年4月的8.3%。此外，2020年危机后推出的财政刺激，无论是幅度还是传导路径上，其效果均远超2008年危机后水平。经我们统计，美国财政部在新冠疫情暴发后推出了一系列财政刺激法案，包括2.2万亿美元CARES法案、1.9万亿美元美国救助计划法案、2.3万亿美元综合拨款法案、4800亿美元薪资保护计划等，其中，一揽子刺激法案在2020-2021年的实际支出规模高达3.7万亿美元，较2008年国际金融危机期间的3590亿美元，增长约935%。此外，从传导路径来看，疫情期间推出的法案，包括对居民的直接派现和失业补贴，导致从拨款到最终刺激消费的路径更为通畅，而疫情防控下，居民线下消费受限进一步推升储蓄，加快居民资产负债表修复。2020年至2021年，居民月均储蓄率高达14.1%，较2019年的7.6%显著上行6.5个百分点。在超大规模的财政刺激下，美国经济和就业市场迅速复苏，居民消费强劲反弹，也对通胀构成巨大压力。2021年，美国实际GDP增速高达5.7%，其中，个人消费支出对实际GDP贡献率达5.3%，为1947年以来最高水平。同期，CPI同比增速自2021年初的1.4%快速上行至2021年末的7%。通过分析美、英、法、德、加五大发达经济体以及整体欧洲的数据，可以发现，过度的财政补贴引发通胀，并非个例。随着财政刺激程度（赤字率） 的增强，核心通胀呈现出明显的上行趋势。可以看到，过度的财政刺激导致居民收入比疫情前更高，从而推升需求，拉动通胀上行。1.2  通胀敏感度测算进一步印证，通胀拉动更在需求端我们通过比较疫情初期物价和物量的变化，对通胀进行敏感性测算，发现需求敏感类分项对通胀的贡献高于供给敏感类分项，即在天量财政刺激背景下，居民收入不降反升，导致需求在2021年疫情趋弱、城市逐渐解封后V字反弹，推升通胀压力。首先，基于美国经济分析局（BEA）每月公布的PCE价格和物量指数，将通胀子类别拆分成对疫情敏感和不敏感两大种类。疫情敏感类分项主要包括，在疫情初期，也就是2020年2-4月期间，其价格或者数量发生的变化（无论正负），与过去10年的平均变化在统计意义上有显著差异，疫情非敏感性分项则包括PCE剩余品类。第二，在对疫情敏分项的基础上，我们将其拆分成供给拉动、需求拉动、和不确定性因素拉动子项，以此来辨别通胀的主导因素。需求拉动的分项是指，在2020年2月至4月期间价格和数量向同一方向显著变化的子类。供给拉动的分项是指，价格和数量向反方向显著变化的子类别。不确定性拉动分项，则是在数量或者价格上，出现统计显著性的变动，但两者并未同时发生显著变化。通过测算可以看到，基于疫情初期物价和物量变化的比较，需求敏感类分项对通胀的贡献高于供给敏感类分项。但此测算无法对各子项需求和供给的演绎进行推演，并对通胀进行预判。因此，在下文中，我们将分析在疫情的各个阶段，各细分项需求端和供给端的博弈，并对通胀的走势作进一步展望，我们将分别从商品和服务两个角度切入分析。二、居民储蓄仍在高位，部分商品价格短期内仍有上行空间自2021年1月开始，美国通胀水平持续攀升，美联储最核心的通胀观测指标（PCE价格指数），自2021年1月的1.4%一路飙升至2022年3月的6.6%；同期，核心PCE指数也从3.1%上行至5.2%。相较于CPI指数，PCE指数采用链式规则编制，也就是PCE各个分项的权重随着物价的变化而变化，考虑了替代效应，更贴合民众感受到的实际通胀水平。核心通胀的抬升显示，美国高通胀压力已经蔓延到各类商品和服务。其中，商品项下的机动车和零部件、汽油及其他能源品类是推升通胀的主要贡献因素；服务项下，住房、交通、娱乐和餐饮为主要驱动力。其中，因住房和交通项权重较高，其对PCE物价指数的拉动也相对较大。2.1供给不足但需求较强，汽车价格有进一步上行空间疫情期间，汽车及零部件价格经历了量价齐跌、量价齐涨、和量缩价涨的过程，向前看，居民手中仍有约2.6万亿美元的额外储蓄，支撑需求维持韧性，而供应链修复疲软也将持续，导致汽车及零部件价格在短期内仍有进一步上行空间。在疫情初始阶段（2020年2月-2020年4月），突发的新冠疫情抑制了对机动车的供给和需求，导致机动车及零部件的物价和物量同比，均呈现下跌状态。在疫情大规模爆发阶段（2020年4月-2021年4月），美国财政部进行了三次大规模的转移支付，导致居民额外储蓄迅速攀升，而疫情封控背景下，服务消费受限，商品消费自然地成为居民最大支出渠道，最终导致物价和物量同比均持续上升。在疫情爆发后期（2021年5月-2022年2月），受芯片短缺、劳动力供给短缺、以及全球运输体系受限的影响，导致供给严重不足，限制需求，因而物价指数同比上升，而物量指数同比下降。展望来看，需求端，居民在疫情期间积累的储蓄，仍能在短期内支撑需求。疫情期间，财政部对居民实施了3次派现，导致居民积累了一定规模的额外储蓄。根据我们测算，自2020年1月以来，居民积累的额外储蓄规模，已经达到了2.6万亿美元。一方面，额外储蓄使得居民在高通胀背景下，仍有一定消费的能力。然而，我们也可以看到，4月居民储蓄率下行至4.4%，为2008年9月以来最低水平；居民月度额外储蓄规模在4月持续在负值扩张，显示高通胀背景下，居民支出上行快于收入，也就是说，居民消费短期内仍有韧性，但持久性不强。从供给端的角度来看，受芯片短缺影响，机动车供给在年内仍无法迅速修复，供需合力，导致机动车价格，特别是新车价格，有进一步上行空间。具体来看，供给端，全球芯片供给修复缓慢，年内预计仍将制约汽车芯片供给，对新车价格形成支撑。今年4月14日，世界最大的代工芯片制造商台积电（TCMC）表示，全芯片短缺问题可能会持续，其所有类型芯片的生产产能都非常有限。对汽车制造商来说，芯片短缺的矛盾更为严重，因为在疫情期间，芯片制造商将更多供给转移给利润更高的消费类电子产品。因此，可以看到，机动车及零部件价格同比增速自2021年3月的5.5%不断上行至2022年3月的19.6%，成为推动美国通胀的重要因素之一。向前看，全球芯片供应链在年内仍将受疫情和俄乌冲突影响，对机动车价格形成支撑。全球芯片供应链非常复杂，从产能建设、产品开发到最后的产品生产过程中，需要全球产业链的参与。世界经济论坛数据测算显示，对于机动车芯片制造而言，整体的开发时长需要24-36个月。因此，我们判断，芯片短缺问题将在2022年持续，限制产能，叠加俄乌冲突和上海疫情对供应链造成冲击，都将持续支撑机动车价格维持高位。2.2 汽油价格大概率维持高位波动俄乌冲突加大能源价格波动。2022年2月，俄乌冲突爆发，推升全球能源价格走高，也导致美国通胀在今年2月以后进一步上行，向前看，若原油供给不出现大规模反弹，预计原油价格仍将在高位波动，对汽油价格形成支撑。一是，俄乌双方仍旧僵持不下，局势或将进一步发酵，若未来战事继续升级，油价存在冲高可能；若俄乌冲突出现好转，油价大概率已经阶段性见顶。二是，由于近期美欧加大战略石油储备的投放，叠加4月18日，美国内政部表示，将于6月启动新一轮联邦石油和天然气资源开采权拍卖，为原油供给提供支持，一定程度上对冲了油价上行压力。三、房价、薪资、能源支撑服务价格在PCE价格指数下的服务项下，住房、交通、娱乐和餐饮为主要驱动力。其中，因住房（33.3%）和交通（13.9%）项权重较高，其对PCE物价指数的拉动也相对较大。向前看，住房项同比增速仍将在上半年持续上行，支撑整体通胀水平；但下半年，在房屋供给持续回升、房贷利率跳升的背景下，预计住房项对通胀的支撑将逐步趋弱。交通项下，劳动力供给不足，叠加能源价格高企，推升美国交通项价格，向前看，预计交通项价格仍维持高位波动。3.1  短期内，住房价格对通胀仍有支撑，四季度趋于回落疫情影响供给，低利率刺激需求，最终导致美国房价显著上行。新冠疫情导致房屋补库受阻，压降成屋供给，叠加低房贷利率对需求的刺激，导致住房项PCE同比增速自2021年初的2%显著上行至2022年3月的4.5%，而因住房项在PCE中的权重达33.3%，其对整体通胀的影响较大。向前看，住房项价格仍将在短期内持续上行，支撑整体通胀水平；但在房屋库存回升、房贷利率跳升的背景下，预计住房项对通胀的支撑将在四季度逐步回落。从美国成屋库存的数据可以看出，一般来说，补库从每年年初开始并持续至年中，在此期间，成屋库存都处于较快增长阶段。但因2020年新冠疫情冲击，并延续至2021年年末，导致2020年补库节奏不及往年。现阶段，房屋库存已开始触底反弹，房屋月度供应比率也超过疫情前水平（2022年4月为9%，2020年2月为5.3%），显示房屋供给开始修复。从需求端观察，美联储在今年3月和5月分别加息25bp和50bp，直接导致30年期固定房贷利率在5月上行至5.1%，较疫情前（2020年2月）时的3.45%，高出1.65个百分点。向前看，房贷利率仍有上行空间，对房屋需求形成较大压力。从历史数据来看，美国房屋价格增速(Caseshiller)一般领先PCE房屋价格指数同比增速6-18个月，而此次CaseShiller房屋价格同比增速已于2021年9月见顶回落。因此我们预计，住房项价格仍将在短期内持续上行，支撑整体通胀水平；但在房屋供给持续回升、房贷利率跳升的背景下，预计住房项对通胀的支撑将在四季度逐步回落。3.2劳动力供给不足，叠加能源价格高企，预计交通项价格年内维持高位劳动力供给不足，叠加能源价格高企，推升美国交通项价格。交通项在整体PCE中的权重达13.9%，对服务通胀的贡献位列住房项之后。交通项的主要贡献项是公共交通，其在疫情后期物量增速维持稳定，但物价增速出现持续上行的趋势，显示需求趋稳但供给不足。一方面，交通运输行业职位空缺/失业人数缺口自2021年4月起持续扩大；另一方面，因全球能源供需紧平衡，汽油、机油、海运价格在2021年4月之后快速上行，推升成本，提振总体价格。我们预计，运输和贸易业劳动力供需失衡的情况将在年内持续，抬高交通项通胀粘性。4月非农就业人口总数与疫情前（2020年2月）相比，仍有120万人缺口，但4月职位空缺数为1140万人，这也显示，就算非农劳动力人数回到了疫情前水平，也无法覆盖现有的劳动力需求。新冠疫情导致人们选择提前退休，叠加约100万人因新冠死亡，均是在短期无法解决的问题。另外，因全球能源供需紧平衡，汽油、机油、海运价格在2021年4月之后快速上行，也是推升总体交通项价格的主要原因。但如前文所述，若美欧加大战略石油储备的投放，OPEC增加产能，则将缓解油价上涨压力。然而，考虑到俄乌冲突延续，OPEC+增产动能较弱，页岩油产能释放缓慢，原油供需仍处在紧平衡格局，油价仍将延续高位震荡，对运输和贸易物价形成支撑。四、年内美国通胀下行有限，仍在高位在基准情形下，美国商品需求在短时间内维持韧性。根据我们测算，疫情期间居民积累的约2.6万亿美元的额外储蓄，在短期内对消费形成支撑。供给方面，供应链修复疲软状态将持续，导致部分商品价格环比在短期内仍有上行空间；服务方面，在薪资、能源和房价问题短期内较难改善的背景下，服务价格对通胀仍有支撑。因此，我们认为，整体通胀（CPI）同比增速虽然已于4月开始回落，但速度将较为缓慢，预计年末回落至6.4%左右水平，2022年全年通胀水平约在7.6%左右水平。在乐观情景下，全球供应链紧缩问题好转缓解供给端压力，商品（新车）价格上行节奏放缓；能源项下，因供给抬升（OPEC增产），其价格环比在下半年开始回落；美联储加息有效抑制部分需求，降低房租价格上行速度。因此，乐观情形下，整体通胀（CPI）同比增速将在4月之后持续回落，并且在年末下行至5.4%左右水平，2022年全年通胀水平约在7.2%左右水平。在乐观情形下，美联储下半年加息节奏将弱于预期。在悲观情景下，全球供应链持续紧缩，需求端维持韧性，支撑商品价格进一步上行；俄乌冲突进一步升级，推升能源价格整体预期；劳动力供需缺口弥合不及预期，导致薪资增速维持高位，引导服务价格持续上行。因此，悲观情形下，整体通胀（CPI）同比增速将在2季度维持在8%左右水平，并且在年末缓慢回落至7.0%，2022年全年通胀水平约在7.9%水平。在悲观情形下，美联储下半年加息节奏可能进一步增强。五、风险提示俄乌冲突持续发酵冲击经济预期；新冠疫情扩散程度超预期。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1081,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":141968979,"gmtCreate":1625833992191,"gmtModify":1625833992191,"author":{"id":"3510119105228942","authorId":"3510119105228942","name":"向良","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3160fd59deba5cffdccc42914c6759","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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TBSPL looks forward to developing its partnerships with CDP and SGX and strengthening its presence in the Singapore market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>UP Fintech Holding Limited’s Singapore Subsidiary Receives Approval-in-Principle Regarding Securities Trading and Clearing in Singapore</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUP Fintech Holding Limited’s Singapore Subsidiary Receives Approval-in-Principle Regarding Securities Trading and Clearing in Singapore\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-06-25 16:08</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, China, June 25, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- UP Fintech Holding Limited (Nasdaq: TIGR) (“UP Fintech” or the “Company”), a leading online brokerage firm focusing on global investors, today announced that its Singapore subsidiary, Tiger Brokers (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. or (“TBSPL”) has received approval-in-principle to be admitted as a Clearing Member of The Central Depository (Pte) Limited (“CDP”). TBSPL also received approval-in-principle from Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (“SGX”) as well as Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited for admission as a trading member.</p><p>The Company expects to use these approvals-in-principle to improve the user experience and services it offers to clients. TBSPL looks forward to developing its partnerships with CDP and SGX and strengthening its presence in the Singapore market.</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TIGR":"老虎证券"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199923953","content_text":"BEIJING, China, June 25, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- UP Fintech Holding Limited (Nasdaq: TIGR) (“UP Fintech” or the “Company”), a leading online brokerage firm focusing on global investors, today announced that its Singapore subsidiary, Tiger Brokers (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. or (“TBSPL”) has received approval-in-principle to be admitted as a Clearing Member of The Central Depository (Pte) Limited (“CDP”). TBSPL also received approval-in-principle from Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (“SGX”) as well as Singapore Exchange Derivatives Trading Limited for admission as a trading member.The Company expects to use these approvals-in-principle to improve the user experience and services it offers to clients. TBSPL looks forward to developing its partnerships with CDP and SGX and strengthening its presence in the Singapore market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":163145233,"gmtCreate":1623864759122,"gmtModify":1623864759122,"author":{"id":"3510119105228942","authorId":"3510119105228942","name":"向良","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3160fd59deba5cffdccc42914c6759","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>破了20就搞笑了","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>破了20就搞笑了","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$破了20就搞笑了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163145233","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":891,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":169514238,"gmtCreate":1623842770424,"gmtModify":1623842770424,"author":{"id":"3510119105228942","authorId":"3510119105228942","name":"向良","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d3160fd59deba5cffdccc42914c6759","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>通通成了韭菜盒子","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>通通成了韭菜盒子","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$通通成了韭菜盒子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169514238","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}