菜鸟毅哥的个人主页 - 老虎社区

菜鸟毅哥

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：北京

39关注

3粉丝

2主题

0勋章

2021-09-22

通篇主观观点，完全没有数据支撑[微笑]

中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同

2020-03-20

$Waitr Holdings Inc.(WTRH)$[流泪] 早上一看触发止损单又涨了回去

2020-03-20

$New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.(NYMTM)$[微笑] 成交一下

2020-03-14

$道琼斯(.DJI)$[流泪] 卖完你就搞偷袭

2019-08-22

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 我要买空[财迷]

2019-08-02

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 小米月线全是绿[流泪]

2019-03-26

$小米集团-W(01810)$清仓做空小米[微笑]

2019-03-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$首日换手率167[微笑]

2019-02-25

$京东方精电(00710)$这货跟京东方有啥关系

2019-02-22

$翼辰实业(01596)$第一

2019-02-20

$呷哺呷哺(00520)$无量上涨，啥情况

2019-02-14

$尚德机构(STG)$尚德还亏损？

2019-02-13

$佳源国际控股(02768)$还不选方向，都没量了

2019-02-12

$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$这玩意是纳指跌它就涨吗

2019-02-12

$香港交易所(00388)$港交所啥情况[微笑]

2019-02-08

$道琼斯(.DJI)$道指不能做空吗？🙃

2019-02-06

$英美烟草公司(BATS.UK)$这市盈牛B

2019-02-05

$格林国际控股(02700)$僵尸股真可怕

2019-01-31

$美团点评-W(03690)$这股咋不能做空

2019-01-21

$佳源国际控股(02768)$明天是涨是跌

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3509878164156099","uuid":"3509878164156099","gmtCreate":1546784144868,"gmtModify":1546784144868,"name":"菜鸟毅哥","pinyin":"cnygcainiaoyige","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":3,"headSize":39,"tweetSize":20,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":3,"name":"书生虎","nameTw":"書生虎","represent":"努力向上","factor":"发布10条非转发主帖,其中5条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":2,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2024.06.29","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001},{"badgeId":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d-1","templateUuid":"228c86a078844d74991fff2b7ab2428d","name":"投资经理虎","description":"证券账户累计交易金额达到10万美元","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8dfc27c1ee0e25db1c93e9d0b641101","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f43908c142f8a33c78f5bdf0e2897488","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82165ff19cb8a786e8919f92acee5213","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.28","exceedPercentage":"60.58%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1101},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-2","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"宗师交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到100次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad22cfbe2d05aa393b18e9226e4b0307","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36702e6ff3ffe46acafee66cc85273ca","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d52eb88fa385cf5abe2616ed63781765","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLink":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"80.40%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100}],"userBadgeCount":5,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"北京","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":869649369,"gmtCreate":1632285062351,"gmtModify":1632285062351,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"通篇主观观点，完全没有数据支撑[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"通篇主观观点，完全没有数据支撑[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"通篇主观观点，完全没有数据支撑[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869649369","repostId":"1138740934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138740934","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632280942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138740934?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138740934","media":"陈曦固收研究","summary":"近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠","content":"<p>近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。</p>\n<p><b>表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：</b></p>\n<p><b>第一，都与房地产相关</b>，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。</p>\n<p><b>第二，都是债务危机</b>。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的影响往往较小，例如2000年美国互联网泡沫，中国2015年股市异动，而债务危机的影响则要大得多，例如98年东南亚外债危机，08年美国次贷危机等。</p>\n<p><b>第三，都表现出传染性</b>。雷曼破产导致一系列连锁反应，恒大出事导致银行对房地产企业融资收缩，已经多家地方房企出现问题。</p>\n<p>雷曼时刻是美国次贷危机的重要加速点，雷曼倒掉之后，美国陷入全面的危机之中。</p>\n<p><b>既然恒大与雷曼有诸多相似，是否意味着中国会重演2008年的美国？</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为，中国重演美国2008年的可能性基本为零。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为，恒大与雷曼有以下本质差别：</b></p>\n<p><b>第一，雷曼背后是居民加杠杆，而恒大背后是地产企业加杠杆，对经济的影响完全不同。</b>08年美国房价下跌，居民被迫去杠杆，进而导致大量居民的资产负债表崩溃，消费能力急剧下降，是地产危机转为经济危机的根源；恒大背后是房地产企业加杠杆，中国的居民加杠杆并不严重。</p>\n<p>中国居民尽管也加杠杆买房，但是中国有严格的首付比例等限制，与美国次贷完全不可同日而语，<b>中国不存在居民资产负债表崩溃的可能。</b></p>\n<p><b>第二，雷曼时刻之后的关键是房价崩盘式下跌，导致抵押品快速贬值，继而出现全面危机；中国看不到房价断崖式下行的可能。</b>对于房价上涨压力大的地区，确实政策非常严格，而对于房价存在下跌压力的地区，则已经开始出台限制房价下跌政策。中国因城施策的背景下，房价未来大概率进入涨跌均有限的波动状态，甚至是冻结状态，不会触发抵押品贬值危机。<b>中国出问题仅限于房企，而不是押品，</b>这是与美国2008年的另一大关键区别。</p>\n<p><b>第三，中国有成熟的大型企业债务问题处置经验，</b>包商、华融、明天、安邦、海航等体量都与恒大可比，甚至有的比恒大更大，处置方式基本都是国家接管、业务拆分、切断传染。其中，能够避免雷曼重演的关键是：切断传染。我们认为即使真有个别中国的房企资不抵债，也能通过政府介入切断传染性（不是政府兜底，而是切断传染）。</p>\n<p><b>第四，银行是缓冲/加速债务危机的关键环节，中国的银行大多数具有国企背景，或者对监管、对政府的响应要比美国强得多。</b>如果按照市场化主体的行为逻辑，很容易出现挤兑（看房企出问题，于是全面抽贷断贷），而中国的银行不存在这个问题。在2020年3-4月疫情高峰、谁也看不清企业能否活下去的时候，中国的银行体系可以大量放贷，还是放中长期贷、甚至信用贷，足以表明中国的银行与美国的银行有巨大差异。</p>\n<p><b>综上所述，我们认为，恒大并不是中国版雷曼，两者差异非常大。如果真的有大型房企资不抵债，则更类似之前的个别大型企业的定点爆破，而不会出现类似美国2008年的风险传染。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于中国经济和资本市场，我们认为：</b></p>\n<p><b>1、房地产调控大方向不会变化</b>，2020疫情后-2021年上半年，房地产是中国经济的重要支撑，而现在开始，<b>房地产确实正在变成对经济的拖累。</b></p>\n<p>2、<b>中国房地产行业不可能消失</b>，即使是发达国家，房地产业仍然占有重要位置，因此，<b>如果房地产行业整体错杀，特别是如果符合三道红线的优质房企被错杀，则其股、债均存在投资机会。</b></p>\n<p><b>3、对于股市的影响，与美国2008年不可同日而语。</b>港股更多的受到外资影响，不了解中国国情，外资误判是正常的；<b>而如果中国股市出现类似港股的下跌，则是买入机会。</b></p>\n<p><b>4、对于债券市场</b>，雷曼时刻之后，美债收益率上行，有观点认为中国可能会出现类似情况，这基本属于误读。美国当年是真的出现了“现金为王”的情况，避险避到只认现金，而中国距离那一步实在是十万八千里。我们认为，中国出现类似美国当年的避险情绪很难，<b>就算真的出现避险，中国央行也会保证流动性</b>，类似包商、永煤之后，导致的是国债收益率下行而不是上行。</p>\n<p><b>我们认为，恒大对中国债市的主要影响是两方面：</b></p>\n<p><b>一是寻找优质房企的地产债错杀机会；</b></p>\n<p><b>二是确认调控对于房地产投资的影响</b>，这将导致经济下行压力加大，在内需本就不足的情况下，<b>货币宽松可能性上升</b>（我们维持10-11月存在降息可能）<b>。</b></p>\n<p><b>中国不存在“雷曼时刻”，维持3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变，同时提示低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。</b></p>","source":"lsy1627443742494","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-22 11:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk><strong>陈曦固收研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。\n第二，都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138740934","content_text":"近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。\n第二，都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的影响往往较小，例如2000年美国互联网泡沫，中国2015年股市异动，而债务危机的影响则要大得多，例如98年东南亚外债危机，08年美国次贷危机等。\n第三，都表现出传染性。雷曼破产导致一系列连锁反应，恒大出事导致银行对房地产企业融资收缩，已经多家地方房企出现问题。\n雷曼时刻是美国次贷危机的重要加速点，雷曼倒掉之后，美国陷入全面的危机之中。\n既然恒大与雷曼有诸多相似，是否意味着中国会重演2008年的美国？\n我们认为，中国重演美国2008年的可能性基本为零。\n我们认为，恒大与雷曼有以下本质差别：\n第一，雷曼背后是居民加杠杆，而恒大背后是地产企业加杠杆，对经济的影响完全不同。08年美国房价下跌，居民被迫去杠杆，进而导致大量居民的资产负债表崩溃，消费能力急剧下降，是地产危机转为经济危机的根源；恒大背后是房地产企业加杠杆，中国的居民加杠杆并不严重。\n中国居民尽管也加杠杆买房，但是中国有严格的首付比例等限制，与美国次贷完全不可同日而语，中国不存在居民资产负债表崩溃的可能。\n第二，雷曼时刻之后的关键是房价崩盘式下跌，导致抵押品快速贬值，继而出现全面危机；中国看不到房价断崖式下行的可能。对于房价上涨压力大的地区，确实政策非常严格，而对于房价存在下跌压力的地区，则已经开始出台限制房价下跌政策。中国因城施策的背景下，房价未来大概率进入涨跌均有限的波动状态，甚至是冻结状态，不会触发抵押品贬值危机。中国出问题仅限于房企，而不是押品，这是与美国2008年的另一大关键区别。\n第三，中国有成熟的大型企业债务问题处置经验，包商、华融、明天、安邦、海航等体量都与恒大可比，甚至有的比恒大更大，处置方式基本都是国家接管、业务拆分、切断传染。其中，能够避免雷曼重演的关键是：切断传染。我们认为即使真有个别中国的房企资不抵债，也能通过政府介入切断传染性（不是政府兜底，而是切断传染）。\n第四，银行是缓冲/加速债务危机的关键环节，中国的银行大多数具有国企背景，或者对监管、对政府的响应要比美国强得多。如果按照市场化主体的行为逻辑，很容易出现挤兑（看房企出问题，于是全面抽贷断贷），而中国的银行不存在这个问题。在2020年3-4月疫情高峰、谁也看不清企业能否活下去的时候，中国的银行体系可以大量放贷，还是放中长期贷、甚至信用贷，足以表明中国的银行与美国的银行有巨大差异。\n综上所述，我们认为，恒大并不是中国版雷曼，两者差异非常大。如果真的有大型房企资不抵债，则更类似之前的个别大型企业的定点爆破，而不会出现类似美国2008年的风险传染。\n对于中国经济和资本市场，我们认为：\n1、房地产调控大方向不会变化，2020疫情后-2021年上半年，房地产是中国经济的重要支撑，而现在开始，房地产确实正在变成对经济的拖累。\n2、中国房地产行业不可能消失，即使是发达国家，房地产业仍然占有重要位置，因此，如果房地产行业整体错杀，特别是如果符合三道红线的优质房企被错杀，则其股、债均存在投资机会。\n3、对于股市的影响，与美国2008年不可同日而语。港股更多的受到外资影响，不了解中国国情，外资误判是正常的；而如果中国股市出现类似港股的下跌，则是买入机会。\n4、对于债券市场，雷曼时刻之后，美债收益率上行，有观点认为中国可能会出现类似情况，这基本属于误读。美国当年是真的出现了“现金为王”的情况，避险避到只认现金，而中国距离那一步实在是十万八千里。我们认为，中国出现类似美国当年的避险情绪很难，就算真的出现避险，中国央行也会保证流动性，类似包商、永煤之后，导致的是国债收益率下行而不是上行。\n我们认为，恒大对中国债市的主要影响是两方面：\n一是寻找优质房企的地产债错杀机会；\n二是确认调控对于房地产投资的影响，这将导致经济下行压力加大，在内需本就不足的情况下，货币宽松可能性上升（我们维持10-11月存在降息可能）。\n中国不存在“雷曼时刻”，维持3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变，同时提示低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967759929,"gmtCreate":1584708954961,"gmtModify":1704355740391,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WTRH\">$Waitr Holdings Inc.(WTRH)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;早上一看触发止损单又涨了回去","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WTRH\">$Waitr Holdings Inc.(WTRH)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;早上一看触发止损单又涨了回去","text":"$Waitr Holdings Inc.(WTRH)$[流泪] 早上一看触发止损单又涨了回去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967759929","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967725567,"gmtCreate":1584708318759,"gmtModify":1704355735396,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYMTM\">$New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.(NYMTM)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;成交一下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYMTM\">$New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.(NYMTM)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;成交一下","text":"$New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.(NYMTM)$[微笑] 成交一下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967725567","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964943278,"gmtCreate":1584130198694,"gmtModify":1704353245123,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;卖完你就搞偷袭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;卖完你就搞偷袭","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$[流泪] 卖完你就搞偷袭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964943278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":994975294,"gmtCreate":1566461078118,"gmtModify":1704714460234,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;我要买空[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;我要买空[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 我要买空[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/994975294","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991698022,"gmtCreate":1564709602166,"gmtModify":1704707679875,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;小米月线全是绿[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;小米月线全是绿[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 小米月线全是绿[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991698022","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":443206,"gmtCreate":1553559819025,"gmtModify":1704794865296,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$清仓做空小米[微笑]","listText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$清仓做空小米[微笑]","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$清仓做空小米[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/443206","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437591,"gmtCreate":1553114472619,"gmtModify":1704794122373,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$首日换手率167[微笑]","listText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$首日换手率167[微笑]","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$首日换手率167[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437591","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":407528,"gmtCreate":1551069938979,"gmtModify":1704790406841,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东方精电(00710)$这货跟京东方有啥关系","listText":"$京东方精电(00710)$这货跟京东方有啥关系","text":"$京东方精电(00710)$这货跟京东方有啥关系","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":406159,"gmtCreate":1550840987264,"gmtModify":1704790235247,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$翼辰实业(01596)$第一","listText":"$翼辰实业(01596)$第一","text":"$翼辰实业(01596)$第一","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406159","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":403954,"gmtCreate":1550640590041,"gmtModify":1704789951623,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$呷哺呷哺(00520)$无量上涨，啥情况","listText":"$呷哺呷哺(00520)$无量上涨，啥情况","text":"$呷哺呷哺(00520)$无量上涨，啥情况","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/403954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":400575,"gmtCreate":1550122415972,"gmtModify":1704789517789,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$尚德机构(STG)$尚德还亏损？","listText":"$尚德机构(STG)$尚德还亏损？","text":"$尚德机构(STG)$尚德还亏损？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/400575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399793,"gmtCreate":1550060334638,"gmtModify":1704789424957,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$还不选方向，都没量了","listText":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$还不选方向，都没量了","text":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$还不选方向，都没量了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398937,"gmtCreate":1549971616513,"gmtModify":1704789320908,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$这玩意是纳指跌它就涨吗","listText":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$这玩意是纳指跌它就涨吗","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$这玩意是纳指跌它就涨吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398937","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398773,"gmtCreate":1549955192489,"gmtModify":1704789302489,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$香港交易所(00388)$港交所啥情况[微笑]","listText":"$香港交易所(00388)$港交所啥情况[微笑]","text":"$香港交易所(00388)$港交所啥情况[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398773","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397123,"gmtCreate":1549589808815,"gmtModify":1704789095180,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$道指不能做空吗？🙃","listText":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$道指不能做空吗？🙃","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$道指不能做空吗？🙃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395906,"gmtCreate":1549436159596,"gmtModify":1704788951383,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英美烟草公司(BATS.UK)$这市盈牛B","listText":"$英美烟草公司(BATS.UK)$这市盈牛B","text":"$英美烟草公司(BATS.UK)$这市盈牛B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395906","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395074,"gmtCreate":1549317620959,"gmtModify":1704788845827,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$格林国际控股(02700)$僵尸股真可怕","listText":"$格林国际控股(02700)$僵尸股真可怕","text":"$格林国际控股(02700)$僵尸股真可怕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395074","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392371,"gmtCreate":1548937966679,"gmtModify":1704788502700,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$美团点评-W(03690)$这股咋不能做空","listText":"$美团点评-W(03690)$这股咋不能做空","text":"$美团点评-W(03690)$这股咋不能做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392371","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384014,"gmtCreate":1548073502999,"gmtModify":1704787443594,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$明天是涨是跌","listText":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$明天是涨是跌","text":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$明天是涨是跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384014","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":869649369,"gmtCreate":1632285062351,"gmtModify":1632285062351,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"通篇主观观点，完全没有数据支撑[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"通篇主观观点，完全没有数据支撑[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"通篇主观观点，完全没有数据支撑[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869649369","repostId":"1138740934","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138740934","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632280942,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138740934?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 11:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138740934","media":"陈曦固收研究","summary":"近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠","content":"<p>近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。</p>\n<p><b>表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：</b></p>\n<p><b>第一，都与房地产相关</b>，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。</p>\n<p><b>第二，都是债务危机</b>。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的影响往往较小，例如2000年美国互联网泡沫，中国2015年股市异动，而债务危机的影响则要大得多，例如98年东南亚外债危机，08年美国次贷危机等。</p>\n<p><b>第三，都表现出传染性</b>。雷曼破产导致一系列连锁反应，恒大出事导致银行对房地产企业融资收缩，已经多家地方房企出现问题。</p>\n<p>雷曼时刻是美国次贷危机的重要加速点，雷曼倒掉之后，美国陷入全面的危机之中。</p>\n<p><b>既然恒大与雷曼有诸多相似，是否意味着中国会重演2008年的美国？</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为，中国重演美国2008年的可能性基本为零。</b></p>\n<p><b>我们认为，恒大与雷曼有以下本质差别：</b></p>\n<p><b>第一，雷曼背后是居民加杠杆，而恒大背后是地产企业加杠杆，对经济的影响完全不同。</b>08年美国房价下跌，居民被迫去杠杆，进而导致大量居民的资产负债表崩溃，消费能力急剧下降，是地产危机转为经济危机的根源；恒大背后是房地产企业加杠杆，中国的居民加杠杆并不严重。</p>\n<p>中国居民尽管也加杠杆买房，但是中国有严格的首付比例等限制，与美国次贷完全不可同日而语，<b>中国不存在居民资产负债表崩溃的可能。</b></p>\n<p><b>第二，雷曼时刻之后的关键是房价崩盘式下跌，导致抵押品快速贬值，继而出现全面危机；中国看不到房价断崖式下行的可能。</b>对于房价上涨压力大的地区，确实政策非常严格，而对于房价存在下跌压力的地区，则已经开始出台限制房价下跌政策。中国因城施策的背景下，房价未来大概率进入涨跌均有限的波动状态，甚至是冻结状态，不会触发抵押品贬值危机。<b>中国出问题仅限于房企，而不是押品，</b>这是与美国2008年的另一大关键区别。</p>\n<p><b>第三，中国有成熟的大型企业债务问题处置经验，</b>包商、华融、明天、安邦、海航等体量都与恒大可比，甚至有的比恒大更大，处置方式基本都是国家接管、业务拆分、切断传染。其中，能够避免雷曼重演的关键是：切断传染。我们认为即使真有个别中国的房企资不抵债，也能通过政府介入切断传染性（不是政府兜底，而是切断传染）。</p>\n<p><b>第四，银行是缓冲/加速债务危机的关键环节，中国的银行大多数具有国企背景，或者对监管、对政府的响应要比美国强得多。</b>如果按照市场化主体的行为逻辑，很容易出现挤兑（看房企出问题，于是全面抽贷断贷），而中国的银行不存在这个问题。在2020年3-4月疫情高峰、谁也看不清企业能否活下去的时候，中国的银行体系可以大量放贷，还是放中长期贷、甚至信用贷，足以表明中国的银行与美国的银行有巨大差异。</p>\n<p><b>综上所述，我们认为，恒大并不是中国版雷曼，两者差异非常大。如果真的有大型房企资不抵债，则更类似之前的个别大型企业的定点爆破，而不会出现类似美国2008年的风险传染。</b></p>\n<p><b>对于中国经济和资本市场，我们认为：</b></p>\n<p><b>1、房地产调控大方向不会变化</b>，2020疫情后-2021年上半年，房地产是中国经济的重要支撑，而现在开始，<b>房地产确实正在变成对经济的拖累。</b></p>\n<p>2、<b>中国房地产行业不可能消失</b>，即使是发达国家，房地产业仍然占有重要位置，因此，<b>如果房地产行业整体错杀，特别是如果符合三道红线的优质房企被错杀，则其股、债均存在投资机会。</b></p>\n<p><b>3、对于股市的影响，与美国2008年不可同日而语。</b>港股更多的受到外资影响，不了解中国国情，外资误判是正常的；<b>而如果中国股市出现类似港股的下跌，则是买入机会。</b></p>\n<p><b>4、对于债券市场</b>，雷曼时刻之后，美债收益率上行，有观点认为中国可能会出现类似情况，这基本属于误读。美国当年是真的出现了“现金为王”的情况，避险避到只认现金，而中国距离那一步实在是十万八千里。我们认为，中国出现类似美国当年的避险情绪很难，<b>就算真的出现避险，中国央行也会保证流动性</b>，类似包商、永煤之后，导致的是国债收益率下行而不是上行。</p>\n<p><b>我们认为，恒大对中国债市的主要影响是两方面：</b></p>\n<p><b>一是寻找优质房企的地产债错杀机会；</b></p>\n<p><b>二是确认调控对于房地产投资的影响</b>，这将导致经济下行压力加大，在内需本就不足的情况下，<b>货币宽松可能性上升</b>（我们维持10-11月存在降息可能）<b>。</b></p>\n<p><b>中国不存在“雷曼时刻”，维持3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变，同时提示低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。</b></p>","source":"lsy1627443742494","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国不存在“雷曼时刻”！恒大与雷曼的四点不同\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-22 11:22 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk><strong>陈曦固收研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。\n第二，都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad2dd670f9557c66480c84fc5e4bd415","relate_stocks":{"03333":"中国恒大"},"source_url":"https://finance.ifeng.com/c/89jwfdVukxk","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138740934","content_text":"近期，不少观点将恒大类比为雷曼，中秋节期间，港股大跌，地产、银行领跌。\n表面上看，恒大与雷曼有很多相似之处：\n第一，都与房地产相关，特别是出事之前的底层逻辑是房价能持续上涨。只有房价上涨，才能消化加杠杆的负债。而美国次贷危机前以及中国过去这些年确实存在房价的持续上涨。\n第二，都是债务危机。债务危机比“股灾”要严重的多，因为资产是软的，债务是硬的，很容易出现资产负债表的破坏。从国际经验看，“股灾”的影响往往较小，例如2000年美国互联网泡沫，中国2015年股市异动，而债务危机的影响则要大得多，例如98年东南亚外债危机，08年美国次贷危机等。\n第三，都表现出传染性。雷曼破产导致一系列连锁反应，恒大出事导致银行对房地产企业融资收缩，已经多家地方房企出现问题。\n雷曼时刻是美国次贷危机的重要加速点，雷曼倒掉之后，美国陷入全面的危机之中。\n既然恒大与雷曼有诸多相似，是否意味着中国会重演2008年的美国？\n我们认为，中国重演美国2008年的可能性基本为零。\n我们认为，恒大与雷曼有以下本质差别：\n第一，雷曼背后是居民加杠杆，而恒大背后是地产企业加杠杆，对经济的影响完全不同。08年美国房价下跌，居民被迫去杠杆，进而导致大量居民的资产负债表崩溃，消费能力急剧下降，是地产危机转为经济危机的根源；恒大背后是房地产企业加杠杆，中国的居民加杠杆并不严重。\n中国居民尽管也加杠杆买房，但是中国有严格的首付比例等限制，与美国次贷完全不可同日而语，中国不存在居民资产负债表崩溃的可能。\n第二，雷曼时刻之后的关键是房价崩盘式下跌，导致抵押品快速贬值，继而出现全面危机；中国看不到房价断崖式下行的可能。对于房价上涨压力大的地区，确实政策非常严格，而对于房价存在下跌压力的地区，则已经开始出台限制房价下跌政策。中国因城施策的背景下，房价未来大概率进入涨跌均有限的波动状态，甚至是冻结状态，不会触发抵押品贬值危机。中国出问题仅限于房企，而不是押品，这是与美国2008年的另一大关键区别。\n第三，中国有成熟的大型企业债务问题处置经验，包商、华融、明天、安邦、海航等体量都与恒大可比，甚至有的比恒大更大，处置方式基本都是国家接管、业务拆分、切断传染。其中，能够避免雷曼重演的关键是：切断传染。我们认为即使真有个别中国的房企资不抵债，也能通过政府介入切断传染性（不是政府兜底，而是切断传染）。\n第四，银行是缓冲/加速债务危机的关键环节，中国的银行大多数具有国企背景，或者对监管、对政府的响应要比美国强得多。如果按照市场化主体的行为逻辑，很容易出现挤兑（看房企出问题，于是全面抽贷断贷），而中国的银行不存在这个问题。在2020年3-4月疫情高峰、谁也看不清企业能否活下去的时候，中国的银行体系可以大量放贷，还是放中长期贷、甚至信用贷，足以表明中国的银行与美国的银行有巨大差异。\n综上所述，我们认为，恒大并不是中国版雷曼，两者差异非常大。如果真的有大型房企资不抵债，则更类似之前的个别大型企业的定点爆破，而不会出现类似美国2008年的风险传染。\n对于中国经济和资本市场，我们认为：\n1、房地产调控大方向不会变化，2020疫情后-2021年上半年，房地产是中国经济的重要支撑，而现在开始，房地产确实正在变成对经济的拖累。\n2、中国房地产行业不可能消失，即使是发达国家，房地产业仍然占有重要位置，因此，如果房地产行业整体错杀，特别是如果符合三道红线的优质房企被错杀，则其股、债均存在投资机会。\n3、对于股市的影响，与美国2008年不可同日而语。港股更多的受到外资影响，不了解中国国情，外资误判是正常的；而如果中国股市出现类似港股的下跌，则是买入机会。\n4、对于债券市场，雷曼时刻之后，美债收益率上行，有观点认为中国可能会出现类似情况，这基本属于误读。美国当年是真的出现了“现金为王”的情况，避险避到只认现金，而中国距离那一步实在是十万八千里。我们认为，中国出现类似美国当年的避险情绪很难，就算真的出现避险，中国央行也会保证流动性，类似包商、永煤之后，导致的是国债收益率下行而不是上行。\n我们认为，恒大对中国债市的主要影响是两方面：\n一是寻找优质房企的地产债错杀机会；\n二是确认调控对于房地产投资的影响，这将导致经济下行压力加大，在内需本就不足的情况下，货币宽松可能性上升（我们维持10-11月存在降息可能）。\n中国不存在“雷曼时刻”，维持3月以来提出的“债牛已至”观点不变，同时提示低估值蓝筹股的投资机会。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1502,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":437591,"gmtCreate":1553114472619,"gmtModify":1704794122373,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$首日换手率167[微笑]","listText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$首日换手率167[微笑]","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$首日换手率167[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/437591","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":397123,"gmtCreate":1549589808815,"gmtModify":1704789095180,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$道指不能做空吗？🙃","listText":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$道指不能做空吗？🙃","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$道指不能做空吗？🙃","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/397123","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1100,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":994975294,"gmtCreate":1566461078118,"gmtModify":1704714460234,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;我要买空[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;我要买空[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 我要买空[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/994975294","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1708,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":407528,"gmtCreate":1551069938979,"gmtModify":1704790406841,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$京东方精电(00710)$这货跟京东方有啥关系","listText":"$京东方精电(00710)$这货跟京东方有啥关系","text":"$京东方精电(00710)$这货跟京东方有啥关系","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/407528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398937,"gmtCreate":1549971616513,"gmtModify":1704789320908,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$这玩意是纳指跌它就涨吗","listText":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$这玩意是纳指跌它就涨吗","text":"$纳指三倍做空ETF(SQQQ)$这玩意是纳指跌它就涨吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398937","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1886,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":964943278,"gmtCreate":1584130198694,"gmtModify":1704353245123,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;卖完你就搞偷袭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;卖完你就搞偷袭","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$[流泪] 卖完你就搞偷袭","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/964943278","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":991698022,"gmtCreate":1564709602166,"gmtModify":1704707679875,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;小米月线全是绿[流泪]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;小米月线全是绿[流泪]&nbsp;","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 小米月线全是绿[流泪]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/991698022","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1434,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":443206,"gmtCreate":1553559819025,"gmtModify":1704794865296,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$清仓做空小米[微笑]","listText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$清仓做空小米[微笑]","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$清仓做空小米[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/443206","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967759929,"gmtCreate":1584708954961,"gmtModify":1704355740391,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WTRH\">$Waitr Holdings Inc.(WTRH)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;早上一看触发止损单又涨了回去","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WTRH\">$Waitr Holdings Inc.(WTRH)$</a>[流泪]&nbsp;早上一看触发止损单又涨了回去","text":"$Waitr Holdings Inc.(WTRH)$[流泪] 早上一看触发止损单又涨了回去","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967759929","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399793,"gmtCreate":1550060334638,"gmtModify":1704789424957,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$还不选方向，都没量了","listText":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$还不选方向，都没量了","text":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$还不选方向，都没量了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399793","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":398773,"gmtCreate":1549955192489,"gmtModify":1704789302489,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$香港交易所(00388)$港交所啥情况[微笑]","listText":"$香港交易所(00388)$港交所啥情况[微笑]","text":"$香港交易所(00388)$港交所啥情况[微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/398773","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":629,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":406159,"gmtCreate":1550840987264,"gmtModify":1704790235247,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$翼辰实业(01596)$第一","listText":"$翼辰实业(01596)$第一","text":"$翼辰实业(01596)$第一","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/406159","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1986,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":400575,"gmtCreate":1550122415972,"gmtModify":1704789517789,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$尚德机构(STG)$尚德还亏损？","listText":"$尚德机构(STG)$尚德还亏损？","text":"$尚德机构(STG)$尚德还亏损？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/400575","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1112,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":384014,"gmtCreate":1548073502999,"gmtModify":1704787443594,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$明天是涨是跌","listText":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$明天是涨是跌","text":"$佳源国际控股(02768)$明天是涨是跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/384014","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":967725567,"gmtCreate":1584708318759,"gmtModify":1704355735396,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYMTM\">$New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.(NYMTM)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;成交一下","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NYMTM\">$New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.(NYMTM)$</a>[微笑]&nbsp;成交一下","text":"$New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.(NYMTM)$[微笑] 成交一下","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/967725567","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":403954,"gmtCreate":1550640590041,"gmtModify":1704789951623,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$呷哺呷哺(00520)$无量上涨，啥情况","listText":"$呷哺呷哺(00520)$无量上涨，啥情况","text":"$呷哺呷哺(00520)$无量上涨，啥情况","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/403954","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395906,"gmtCreate":1549436159596,"gmtModify":1704788951383,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$英美烟草公司(BATS.UK)$这市盈牛B","listText":"$英美烟草公司(BATS.UK)$这市盈牛B","text":"$英美烟草公司(BATS.UK)$这市盈牛B","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395906","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":395074,"gmtCreate":1549317620959,"gmtModify":1704788845827,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$格林国际控股(02700)$僵尸股真可怕","listText":"$格林国际控股(02700)$僵尸股真可怕","text":"$格林国际控股(02700)$僵尸股真可怕","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/395074","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":392371,"gmtCreate":1548937966679,"gmtModify":1704788502700,"author":{"id":"3509878164156099","authorId":"3509878164156099","name":"菜鸟毅哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3509878164156099","authorIdStr":"3509878164156099"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$美团点评-W(03690)$这股咋不能做空","listText":"$美团点评-W(03690)$这股咋不能做空","text":"$美团点评-W(03690)$这股咋不能做空","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/392371","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}