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王大饼
2020-04-22
$Netflix, Inc.(NFLX)$
我怎么觉得接下来会大跌?之前抄底原油的巨头们,会疯狂卖其他股票来弥补损失。我说得对吗?黑人问号脸
王大饼
2020-04-15
$跟谁学(GSX)$
这破逼股票还有人买进?真特么奇怪了,这些人都是员工家人开的账号吗?
王大饼
2020-01-08
一句话能说清楚的,非要写几千字混稿费?苹果跟红米荣耀完全不是个价位好吗,十倍的价格!特斯拉跟国产车价格差的多嘛,蔚来小鹏甚至比人家卖的贵,玩个屁
回忆苹果手机往事,看清国产特斯拉的未来
王大饼
2019-09-30
$蔚来(NIO)$
再跌一阵子,腾讯就要全资收购了,或者卖给腾讯投资的其他公司,ES8也会降价甩卖,最起码降到小鹏汽车或者比亚迪那个价。ES6会是彻头彻尾一款便宜的电动车。
王大饼
2019-05-17
$百度(BIDU)$ 财报呢?
王大饼
2019-05-16
$GoPro(GPRO)$ 看了下YouTube测评,全方位被大疆完爆,甚至连一个优点都找不出 太惨啊,药丸
王大饼
2019-05-04
$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 继续跌吧!加油
王大饼
2019-05-04
$蔚来(NIO)$ 悲剧了,昨天卖的
王大饼
2019-05-02
$新氧(SY)$ 哈哈哈,开心
王大饼
2019-04-30
$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 开盘价23,现在才34,涨了50%而已,怕个屁啊。等到100%再出来发抖
王大饼
2019-04-30
$中国铁塔(00788)$ 终于看到中国铁塔的塔了
王大饼
2019-04-30
$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 涨50%不是问题啊
王大饼
2019-04-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 明天财报数据如何?大家来猜猜看
王大饼
2019-04-18
$Zoom(ZM)$是不是太高了
王大饼
2019-04-03
$蔚来(NIO)$ 老虎这平台费用,是不是太特么贵了?
王大饼
2019-03-29
$拼多多(PDD)$ 会跌倒16不
王大饼
2019-03-13
$拼多多(PDD)$ 今天跌5个点,最多了吧。不能跌20个点吧
王大饼
2019-03-12
$陌陌(MOMO)$ 好开心,37.5卖掉了[开心]
王大饼
2019-03-06
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 再跌一点,我就把工资卡里面还剩的点钱全充进来
王大饼
2019-03-02
$特斯拉(TSLA)$亏完今天晚上,我的model3就变成model2了
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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11:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"回忆苹果手机往事,看清国产特斯拉的未来","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148711113","media":"许树泽树我直言","summary":"有幸见证这个时代,水大才能鱼大。","content":"<p><span>作者:许树泽</span></p><p>国产$<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>(TSLA)$的中国速度让人吃惊,就好比考试的时候,还没打铃,但第一名已经早早交卷,后面没做完的同学们可要抓紧时间了。</p><p>考场上还有谁呢?当然不仅仅是中国的那些电动车新势力,马斯克想要征服的是全球整个汽车工业,是亨利福特以来所有的那些燃油车们。国产特斯拉就好比是1984年的那台上海大众桑塔纳,一个新的时代的大幕已经拉开了。</p><p>先说结论:<b>电动车还能继续降价。</b>虽然打过折已经便宜很多了,但是未来降价的幅度,按照一些工程师对成本的估算,顺利的话,一年后还有15%的空间。</p><p>这个结论有两个重要依据:电池成本持续下降和零配件快速国产化。</p><p><b>首先,电动车就是一台会跑的电池嘛,电池在车子的成本中占比是最高的。</b>电池想要提高性能那是非常难的,挑战的不是竞争对手,而是物理极限;但是换个思路,电池改善技术,降低成本,这个是完全可以有的。在过去的五年中,全球电池成本每年下降16%,如果保持这个速度,越往后就可以越便宜。</p><p><b>第二点,国产特斯拉的零配件,有30%已经国产化了,</b>按照计划,到夏天,有70%的零件可以国产,到了12月底,100%的零件可以全部国产。这两重暴击,可以继续大幅降低国产特斯拉的综合成本,就可以继续降价。</p><p>那么大家很自然有个疑问,据说这公司一直亏钱啊,亏钱还敢降价,它就不怕倒闭吗?!它如果倒闭了,车主们怎么办呢?降价一时爽,一直降价一直爽?可别到时候修车都找不到人……</p><p>这里面我们要稍作解释,到底什么叫亏损?一般大家看的是利润表,利润为负叫做亏损,<b>亏损有两种情况:收入大幅减少导致亏损、成本大幅抬高导致亏损。</b>在后一种情况当中,成本抬高,往往可能是因为把用于投资的开支、用于研发的开支,在财务上处理成了当期的费用,因此成本高昂导致亏损。</p><p>可是你知道,这完全不符合逻辑,你读个MBA、或者你买了个理财产品、甚至企业投的广告,这压根可不是成本,你投的是货真价实的资产啊!这些统统都是在给自己的未来存钱!虽然当期资金流出多,但是其实恰恰是对未来的大利好!</p><p>正因为如此,我们看一家企业是否亏钱,不是那么在意利润表,我们理解的亏钱<b>,是经营现金流为负,更严格的要求是自由现金流为负</b><b><span>(经营现金-投资支出)</span></b>,按照这样的标准来看,号称专注亏损二十年的大名鼎鼎的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>,其实从来没有"亏"过哪怕一分钱;而即使按照最低标准来看,特斯拉也确确实实是亏钱的,截止去年底,才算真正意义上现金流全面转正而已。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/01c871ee2a2da4f205aff2adec7fffc2\" /></p><p>特斯拉经营活动现金流量</p><p>说回来,既然情况真的很危险,那么再大幅降价,岂不是更加如履薄冰,是梁静茹给的你勇气吗?</p><p>这里面有两个关键要点:经济学第一规律——需求定律和外部同盟效应。</p><p>经济学最朴素的第一规律,就是需求定律。通俗来讲就是薄利多销,价格越便宜,销量越上升。特斯拉这次从35.6万降价到29.9万,降价幅度为16%,这就意味着它的销量只要能上升19%<span>(29.9*1.19=35.6)</span>就能让这次降价打平不亏。</p><p>汽车这个东西的价格弹性还算是比较大的,更何况是特斯拉,稍微降价带来的销量提升,大概率会大幅高于19%,降价对它自己有利可图,他们自己肯定做模型算过才定的价,咱们大伙就不用操心啦。</p><p>更重要的,我们最想和大家分享的是第二点,外部同盟效应。</p><p>三谷资本的曾凡华先生和树泽分享了这个重要的角度,企业竞争就好比行军打仗,靠自己是打不赢的,必须有内部同盟和外部同盟。一家公司能不能成,不能老是盯着表面看,它其实有很多强大的外部盟友,这种强大的联盟效应的合力,大家集体投了那么多的时间精力金钱,以至于它根本无法失败,甚至失败不起,太多人已经绑在了上面让它不能失败。</p><p>从这个角度,国产特斯拉绝对不是简单的外来和尚,它的"特斯拉速度"为啥那么快?那么巨大的上海工厂,三个月破土、半年建成、一年内新车下线!为啥?因为它已经得到中国汽车零件和新能源这两个产业链、甚至地方政府们的全力加持,此外,还有实力雄厚的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601988\">中国银行</a>业,累计给特斯拉中国工厂贷款超过了100亿元以上,这些可都是神队友啊!复仇者联盟合体,它们已经形成了一个强大的外部同盟效应。大家常常盯着特斯拉的一些技术问题和马斯克本身的性格和特点,却可能忽视了这种不容易分析到的外部同盟的巨大力量。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fffce8661cdce9ad9feceac0dc2efe0f\" /></p><p>那么大家可能会问了,那为啥要跟他结盟呢?我们有那么多的民族企业,你看那谁谁谁们。</p><p>这里就得站在更大的历史时空的语境中理解才会更深。在如今全球经济减速的背景下,中国经济肩膀上是有使命和责任的,我们向世界做出承诺,会进一步开放中国的市场,因此,无论引进来的是谁,他是哪里人、国籍如何,我们都信守诺言,开放大门,这是大国的信誉和承诺。</p><p>更重要的是,这让我们想起来了2010前后的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>和iphone。当时的情况和今天非常相似,我们当时也有很多民族手机品牌啊,什么手机中的战斗机坦克轰炸机啦,怎么能让苹果进来呢?</p><p>可是苹果进来之后,把技术授权给了很多做原材料的供应商,苹果帮助它们提高效率,改善工艺,降低成本,短短几年时间,中国在长三角、珠三角,形成了全球最强大的电子产业供应链。</p><p>一个极其励志的真实故事,当年一个十八九岁初出茅庐的小镇女孩,在富士康工厂做第一代女工,因为工作勤劳努力,也幸运赶上时代浪潮,晋升飞快。有了积蓄和经验之后,和哥哥凑钱去香港注册了一家小工厂,然后拿着资质在珠三角开办了一家自己的精密加工企业。</p><p>这小企业最早是帮助手机做连接器<span>(充电那个金属接口)</span>,因为工艺好效率高,被苹果相中成为供应商,这些年踏踏实实老老实实给苹果做些小零配件。士别三日刮目相看,今年再看这家公司,它甚至接到了苹果最新一代降噪耳机AirPods Pro一半的订单!</p><p>要知道,给苹果做生意,苹果给多少,你就只能赚多少,在给定毛利率低到只有20%的情况下,通过极为苛刻的成本控制,硬是把净利润率做到了近10%。<span>(中国上市公司整体净利润率只有3%多点)</span>而当年的年轻女工,如今已经是身家200亿的当地女首富,多么令人心潮澎湃的一个励志的人生故事,这种故事,也只有出生在水大鱼大的当今时代的中国才能上演。</p><p>说回来,<b>苹果的成功绝对不是自己技术的成功,也不是品牌的成功,而是一个非常典型的依靠外部同盟效应,形成强大合力的成功。</b>说是苹果培育了中国智能手机的需求,一点也不夸张,苹果生态孕育出中国的尖端电子产业供应链,其实是培养了一个行业的长期潜力,这才是真正的长期价值。</p><p>而到头来,今天,真正出货量更大的是谁呢?是华为、是小米、是OV。当年如果因为害怕影响民族工业,而把苹果挡在外面,那根本不会有我们电子产业的今天。</p><p>说到这,不禁想起日本便利店之父铃木敏文先生说的那句话:<b>"垄断不是竞争优势,恰恰只是没有竞争"。</b>打开大门,让竞争者进来,市场竞争打造磨练出来的能力,才是真正的竞争优势。具备竞争优势的公司,才是投资者最可靠的护城河。</p><p>说到未来,我们对中国的汽车行业充满了信心。道理很简单,看千人保有量,美国是830多台,日韩400台~600台,中国只有170多台,巨大的缺口意味着空间。但是这个机会到底是谁的?好比当年,中国的网民用户数不多,空间很大,但是互联网真正起来之后,谁最受益呢?不是卖电脑的,而是卖手机的,因为手机成为了接入网络的超级终端,很多没上过网的用户直接过顶传球跨过了电脑这个阶段,直接跳到了手机。</p><p>拥有智能驾驶系统的新能源车,会不会就是类同上述,让年轻人跨过燃油车的第一部车呢?</p><p>有幸见证这个时代,水大才能鱼大。</p>","source":"lsy1578453270226","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n回忆苹果手机往事,看清国产特斯拉的未来\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-01-08 11:15 北京时间 <a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LWP0MzOQWeKYo_t9Cnfp2g><strong>许树泽树我直言</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者:许树泽国产$特斯拉(TSLA)$的中国速度让人吃惊,就好比考试的时候,还没打铃,但第一名已经早早交卷,后面没做完的同学们可要抓紧时间了。考场上还有谁呢?当然不仅仅是中国的那些电动车新势力,马斯克想要征服的是全球整个汽车工业,是亨利福特以来所有的那些燃油车们。国产特斯拉就好比是1984年的那台上海大众桑塔纳,一个新的时代的大幕已经拉开了。先说结论:电动车还能继续降价。虽然打过折已经便宜很多了,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LWP0MzOQWeKYo_t9Cnfp2g\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9749762c5ee11a52030b4c66a89c8026","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/LWP0MzOQWeKYo_t9Cnfp2g","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148711113","content_text":"作者:许树泽国产$特斯拉(TSLA)$的中国速度让人吃惊,就好比考试的时候,还没打铃,但第一名已经早早交卷,后面没做完的同学们可要抓紧时间了。考场上还有谁呢?当然不仅仅是中国的那些电动车新势力,马斯克想要征服的是全球整个汽车工业,是亨利福特以来所有的那些燃油车们。国产特斯拉就好比是1984年的那台上海大众桑塔纳,一个新的时代的大幕已经拉开了。先说结论:电动车还能继续降价。虽然打过折已经便宜很多了,但是未来降价的幅度,按照一些工程师对成本的估算,顺利的话,一年后还有15%的空间。这个结论有两个重要依据:电池成本持续下降和零配件快速国产化。首先,电动车就是一台会跑的电池嘛,电池在车子的成本中占比是最高的。电池想要提高性能那是非常难的,挑战的不是竞争对手,而是物理极限;但是换个思路,电池改善技术,降低成本,这个是完全可以有的。在过去的五年中,全球电池成本每年下降16%,如果保持这个速度,越往后就可以越便宜。第二点,国产特斯拉的零配件,有30%已经国产化了,按照计划,到夏天,有70%的零件可以国产,到了12月底,100%的零件可以全部国产。这两重暴击,可以继续大幅降低国产特斯拉的综合成本,就可以继续降价。那么大家很自然有个疑问,据说这公司一直亏钱啊,亏钱还敢降价,它就不怕倒闭吗?!它如果倒闭了,车主们怎么办呢?降价一时爽,一直降价一直爽?可别到时候修车都找不到人……这里面我们要稍作解释,到底什么叫亏损?一般大家看的是利润表,利润为负叫做亏损,亏损有两种情况:收入大幅减少导致亏损、成本大幅抬高导致亏损。在后一种情况当中,成本抬高,往往可能是因为把用于投资的开支、用于研发的开支,在财务上处理成了当期的费用,因此成本高昂导致亏损。可是你知道,这完全不符合逻辑,你读个MBA、或者你买了个理财产品、甚至企业投的广告,这压根可不是成本,你投的是货真价实的资产啊!这些统统都是在给自己的未来存钱!虽然当期资金流出多,但是其实恰恰是对未来的大利好!正因为如此,我们看一家企业是否亏钱,不是那么在意利润表,我们理解的亏钱,是经营现金流为负,更严格的要求是自由现金流为负(经营现金-投资支出),按照这样的标准来看,号称专注亏损二十年的大名鼎鼎的亚马逊,其实从来没有\"亏\"过哪怕一分钱;而即使按照最低标准来看,特斯拉也确确实实是亏钱的,截止去年底,才算真正意义上现金流全面转正而已。特斯拉经营活动现金流量说回来,既然情况真的很危险,那么再大幅降价,岂不是更加如履薄冰,是梁静茹给的你勇气吗?这里面有两个关键要点:经济学第一规律——需求定律和外部同盟效应。经济学最朴素的第一规律,就是需求定律。通俗来讲就是薄利多销,价格越便宜,销量越上升。特斯拉这次从35.6万降价到29.9万,降价幅度为16%,这就意味着它的销量只要能上升19%(29.9*1.19=35.6)就能让这次降价打平不亏。汽车这个东西的价格弹性还算是比较大的,更何况是特斯拉,稍微降价带来的销量提升,大概率会大幅高于19%,降价对它自己有利可图,他们自己肯定做模型算过才定的价,咱们大伙就不用操心啦。更重要的,我们最想和大家分享的是第二点,外部同盟效应。三谷资本的曾凡华先生和树泽分享了这个重要的角度,企业竞争就好比行军打仗,靠自己是打不赢的,必须有内部同盟和外部同盟。一家公司能不能成,不能老是盯着表面看,它其实有很多强大的外部盟友,这种强大的联盟效应的合力,大家集体投了那么多的时间精力金钱,以至于它根本无法失败,甚至失败不起,太多人已经绑在了上面让它不能失败。从这个角度,国产特斯拉绝对不是简单的外来和尚,它的\"特斯拉速度\"为啥那么快?那么巨大的上海工厂,三个月破土、半年建成、一年内新车下线!为啥?因为它已经得到中国汽车零件和新能源这两个产业链、甚至地方政府们的全力加持,此外,还有实力雄厚的中国银行业,累计给特斯拉中国工厂贷款超过了100亿元以上,这些可都是神队友啊!复仇者联盟合体,它们已经形成了一个强大的外部同盟效应。大家常常盯着特斯拉的一些技术问题和马斯克本身的性格和特点,却可能忽视了这种不容易分析到的外部同盟的巨大力量。那么大家可能会问了,那为啥要跟他结盟呢?我们有那么多的民族企业,你看那谁谁谁们。这里就得站在更大的历史时空的语境中理解才会更深。在如今全球经济减速的背景下,中国经济肩膀上是有使命和责任的,我们向世界做出承诺,会进一步开放中国的市场,因此,无论引进来的是谁,他是哪里人、国籍如何,我们都信守诺言,开放大门,这是大国的信誉和承诺。更重要的是,这让我们想起来了2010前后的苹果和iphone。当时的情况和今天非常相似,我们当时也有很多民族手机品牌啊,什么手机中的战斗机坦克轰炸机啦,怎么能让苹果进来呢?可是苹果进来之后,把技术授权给了很多做原材料的供应商,苹果帮助它们提高效率,改善工艺,降低成本,短短几年时间,中国在长三角、珠三角,形成了全球最强大的电子产业供应链。一个极其励志的真实故事,当年一个十八九岁初出茅庐的小镇女孩,在富士康工厂做第一代女工,因为工作勤劳努力,也幸运赶上时代浪潮,晋升飞快。有了积蓄和经验之后,和哥哥凑钱去香港注册了一家小工厂,然后拿着资质在珠三角开办了一家自己的精密加工企业。这小企业最早是帮助手机做连接器(充电那个金属接口),因为工艺好效率高,被苹果相中成为供应商,这些年踏踏实实老老实实给苹果做些小零配件。士别三日刮目相看,今年再看这家公司,它甚至接到了苹果最新一代降噪耳机AirPods 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太惨啊,药丸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/908003364","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3104,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3471076687566805","authorId":"3471076687566805","name":"Doublet","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"其实还好吧 和go7比大疆画面颜色偏黄 不过大疆也非常强大","text":"其实还好吧 和go7比大疆画面颜色偏黄 不过大疆也非常强大","html":"其实还好吧 和go7比大疆画面颜色偏黄 不过大疆也非常强大"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":903690606,"gmtCreate":1556909880905,"gmtModify":1704801652687,"author":{"id":"3507413142684139","authorId":"3507413142684139","name":"王大饼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76f8eb238ec0985e65e0c6ba7d7b07b6","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 继续跌吧!加油","listText":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 继续跌吧!加油","text":"$Pinterest, Inc.(PINS)$ 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