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夏道休_2947
11-19
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸
夏道休_2947
01-09
曾经我也相信有行情，怎奈村里吃人不带吐骨头
“铁口”李蓓：未来中国股市或有“二十年一遇”行情
夏道休_2947
11-27
🦐🚗🥚，你TM是第一名
@果子哥家老汉:
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
到底了，可以逐步建仓了，这波预计持续到2月底。会涨到3631点左右。
$道琼斯(.DJI)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$恒生指数(HSI)$
夏道休_2947
2023-12-14
全球新高，大A新低，屁民都洗洗睡吧
抱歉，原内容已删除
夏道休_2947
2023-05-26
$创业板指(399006)$
夏道休_2947
2023-03-24
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
夏道休_2947
2023-03-08
$上证指数(000001.SH)$
夏道休_2947
2023-03-08
$创业板指(399006)$
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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13:45","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2390346757","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"提醒部分投资者“踏空风险”。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。</p><p>作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。</p><p>李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><p>她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。</p><h2 id=\"id_3719791639\">市场“一致预期”是错的</h2><p>李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。</p><p>然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。</p><p>她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。</p><p>以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。</p><p>具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。</p><h2 id=\"id_1700695953\">小心“踏空风险”</h2><p>李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。</p><p>基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。</p><h2 id=\"id_414897472\">大牛市和经济高增长未必同步</h2><p>很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。</p><p>李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。</p><p>她举了两个例子：</p><blockquote><p>其一，1940年代末，美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。</p><p>其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。</p></blockquote><p>因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。</p><p>未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。</p><h2 id=\"id_2621002691\">如何防控风险 ？</h2><p>对于投资者规避风险的方法，李蓓有两点亲身经验。</p><p>其一，可以用期权工具。国内隐含波动15%以内，美国和中国香港市场都要超过30%，因此在A股可以用看涨期权进行表达，比如买入大盘股指数看涨期权。</p><p>其二，控制仓位。由于市场现在是左侧，需要防范净值大幅波动，等右侧机会来了再加仓。</p></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n李蓓“新鲜”发声：明年美国或会衰退，坚定持有人民币资产\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-12 13:45 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c734b87f52be5f120b1c0c0583b68e11","relate_stocks":{"000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3704022","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2390346757","content_text":"12月12日上午，“私募魔女”李蓓现身一场高净值投资者论坛，公开与多位内资外资知名人士参加圆桌讨论会。作为半夏投资的掌门人，李蓓再次唱多中国资产，并提示所谓市场的“一致预期”通常是错误的。李蓓还提醒：持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。她在这场圆桌会上发表哪些犀利观点？资事堂总结如下，以飨读者。市场“一致预期”是错的李蓓指出，一家海外知名机构做的投资者问卷调查显示，目前市场预期是做多大型美国科技股，并看空中国资产——这些交易显得非常“拥挤”。然而，市场通常证明这种拥挤的交易，事后都是“屡试不爽”，且与预期相反。她认为，如果投资者现在将资产转成美元资产，到了明年很可能被证明是错误的决策。以2023年市场“一致预期”为例，预期差出现于财政政策走向的判断。具体来说：8月以前美国财政是显著扩张的，而中国是财政显著收缩。其中，今年美国时薪增速是4%，居民可支配收入增配达到8%，税收优惠带来收入上涨。但这个趋势明年面临逆转，因为过去一个季度美国“半只脚”基本踏入衰退区域，这导致美国明年面临财政收缩的情景。小心“踏空风险”李蓓再次强调看多人民币风险资产的观点。同时，明年的宏观背景板上，美国将进入温和衰退，利率随之进一步下降。基于此，持有美元计价资产的中国投资者，可能会踏空未来中国资产的上涨。大牛市和经济高增长未必同步很多投资者有一个认知误区，即经济高增长的前提下，才有权益资产牛市的出现。李蓓指出，观察看全球经济周期和资本市场发展，低增长下的牛市并不罕见。她举了两个例子：其一，1940年代末，美国标普500指数的PE只有8倍，整个四十年代美国经历高增长，卖军火卖物资，最后才参战。到了50年代，高增长早已不在，但迎来了牛市。其二，1970年代日本经历了产业升级和经济快速增长，但1980年时日本股市估值非常低，产业升级也结束，迎来了之后十年增速下台阶的宏观图景。然而，日本股票市场1980年代迎来大牛市。因此，并不一定是高增长才能带来大牛市。未来我们会遇到资本市场重估带来的牛市，当投资人担忧逐渐减弱的时候，重估就会到来，而且经济进一步转型叠加利率下行，都会有利于牛市的演绎。如何防控风险 ？对于投资者规避风险的方法，李蓓有两点亲身经验。其一，可以用期权工具。国内隐含波动15%以内，美国和中国香港市场都要超过30%，因此在A股可以用看涨期权进行表达，比如买入大盘股指数看涨期权。其二，控制仓位。由于市场现在是左侧，需要防范净值大幅波动，等右侧机会来了再加仓。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":846,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":655980088,"gmtCreate":1685066537245,"gmtModify":1685067555162,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ 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</a>","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627848782","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":208,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":627848211,"gmtCreate":1678239564733,"gmtModify":1678239967337,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3506295545546950","idStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ </a>","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$ </a>","text":"$创业板指(399006)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/627848211","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":372680938340464,"gmtCreate":1731996080663,"gmtModify":1731996082246,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506295545546950","authorIdStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a>A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000001.SH\">$上证指数(000001.SH)$ </a>A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸","text":"$上证指数(000001.SH)$ A股已经没希望了，过去是，现在是，未来更是。。。全球最拉，没有之一，远离A股，方可上岸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/372680938340464","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":158,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":261194555605184,"gmtCreate":1704778387812,"gmtModify":1704778389356,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506295545546950","authorIdStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"曾经我也相信有行情，怎奈村里吃人不带吐骨头","listText":"曾经我也相信有行情，怎奈村里吃人不带吐骨头","text":"曾经我也相信有行情，怎奈村里吃人不带吐骨头","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/261194555605184","repostId":"2401840984","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2401840984","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1704707414,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2401840984?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-08 17:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“铁口”李蓓：未来中国股市或有“二十年一遇”行情","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2401840984","media":"wallstreet","summary":"去年最后一个月净值继续回落。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>去年最后一个月净值继续回落。</p></blockquote><p>净值继续跌，而她继续看好。</p><p>这可能就是李蓓吧。</p><p>1月8日，市场流传出李蓓的一份最新基金月报（2023年12月月报）。</p><p>这是半夏旗下“低波动”系列产品的月报，在月报中，基金经理复盘了过去一个月的操作，并再次重申牛市观点：</p><p>当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部；</p><p>将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2-3轮小牛市的。</p><p>（将来的股市行情）大概率超越5年一遇的级别，可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。</p><p>然而，在“大喊机会”的同时，李蓓的一只低波动主题（私募）基金在2023年录得近15个点的跌幅，更跑输了大盘指数。</p><p>这可能会让她有点烦心吧。</p><p><strong>2023年“受挫”</strong></p><p>根据业内流传的投资月报，一个隶属于半夏投资低波动系列的私募产品，在2023年实现-14.70%的年度收益，跑输沪深300指数约三个百分点。</p><p>这让半夏无法重复2022年的辉煌，相反在一批百亿私募同行中暂时排名居于中下游之列。</p><p>对于去年12月的操作，李蓓复盘称：<strong>权益类持仓跌幅则大于沪深300指数，一方面是期权权利金在指数低波动背景下面临时间价值的损失，一方面是个股持仓走势弱于沪深300。</strong></p><p>虽然业绩不理想，但李蓓依然信心满满：由于债券和商品市场都并没有大机会，我们把大部分的风险预算留给权益仓位。</p><p>她还指出：“政策沿着预期的方向和节奏循序渐进的落地，后续几个月的时间，效果会逐渐显现出来。资金流动是过去一段时间更主要的矛盾。”</p><p><strong>提及年初“黑天鹅”</strong></p><p>李蓓还提及了2024年开年的行情，并认为：年初市场出现了明显的下跌，尤其基金重仓股下跌惨烈。开年的戏剧一幕再一次提醒我们一个道理，世界充满了黑天鹅，不确定性始终存在。</p><p>但她认为市场出现了增量资金，有如下分析：</p><p>ETF净申购是12月最大的增量，对市场的稳定起了很大的托底作用。</p><p>其它类别的机构，无论私募，保险还是外资仓位，仓位出清的过程都基本完成，仓位的绝对水平都是历史低位。</p><p><strong>给出三点“提示”</strong></p><p>李蓓在月报中给投资人强调以下三点：</p><p><strong>其一，后续要继续规避公募集体超配的行业和个股。</strong>更本质的是：主动公募和主观私募所面临的资金流出趋势，在未来一年都很难逆转。</p><p><strong>其二，这一波公募的卖出降仓位结束后，市场上所有的存量投资者就都会完成仓位出清。</strong>所以虽然年初市场表现的确低于预期，但中期上涨的障碍进一步的扫清了。</p><p><strong>其三，保险资金的入场，是我们之前一直预期的2024年主要的资金增量。</strong>从开年的表现来看，基本上也可以确定这种趋势已经正在发生，保险偏好的高股息类公司，开年后的相对跑赢比之前更加地流畅。</p><p><strong>再提大牛市</strong></p><p>数月以来，李蓓非常坚定看好未来大牛市趋势。</p><p>她在此份月报中再次唱多，指出：当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部，<strong>将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2、3轮小牛市的，大概率超越5年一遇的级别，可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。</strong></p><p>她更把增量资金和市场演变的顺序，做了一番“演绎”：</p><blockquote><p>国家队托底，保险入市推动第一波触底回升；</p><p>基本面担忧缓解后，外资逆转，机构持续加仓引发第二波上涨；</p><p>赚钱效应引发存款搬家推动第三波泡沫化。</p></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_hot_news","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“铁口”李蓓：未来中国股市或有“二十年一遇”行情\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-01-08 17:50 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3705875><strong>wallstreet</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>去年最后一个月净值继续回落。净值继续跌，而她继续看好。这可能就是李蓓吧。1月8日，市场流传出李蓓的一份最新基金月报（2023年12月月报）。这是半夏旗下“低波动”系列产品的月报，在月报中，基金经理复盘了过去一个月的操作，并再次重申牛市观点：当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部；将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2-3轮小牛市的。（将来的股市行情）大概率超越5年一遇的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3705875\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e68f18a297e419bae3cc0320b6d8ff4e","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3705875","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2401840984","content_text":"去年最后一个月净值继续回落。净值继续跌，而她继续看好。这可能就是李蓓吧。1月8日，市场流传出李蓓的一份最新基金月报（2023年12月月报）。这是半夏旗下“低波动”系列产品的月报，在月报中，基金经理复盘了过去一个月的操作，并再次重申牛市观点：当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部；将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2-3轮小牛市的。（将来的股市行情）大概率超越5年一遇的级别，可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。然而，在“大喊机会”的同时，李蓓的一只低波动主题（私募）基金在2023年录得近15个点的跌幅，更跑输了大盘指数。这可能会让她有点烦心吧。2023年“受挫”根据业内流传的投资月报，一个隶属于半夏投资低波动系列的私募产品，在2023年实现-14.70%的年度收益，跑输沪深300指数约三个百分点。这让半夏无法重复2022年的辉煌，相反在一批百亿私募同行中暂时排名居于中下游之列。对于去年12月的操作，李蓓复盘称：权益类持仓跌幅则大于沪深300指数，一方面是期权权利金在指数低波动背景下面临时间价值的损失，一方面是个股持仓走势弱于沪深300。虽然业绩不理想，但李蓓依然信心满满：由于债券和商品市场都并没有大机会，我们把大部分的风险预算留给权益仓位。她还指出：“政策沿着预期的方向和节奏循序渐进的落地，后续几个月的时间，效果会逐渐显现出来。资金流动是过去一段时间更主要的矛盾。”提及年初“黑天鹅”李蓓还提及了2024年开年的行情，并认为：年初市场出现了明显的下跌，尤其基金重仓股下跌惨烈。开年的戏剧一幕再一次提醒我们一个道理，世界充满了黑天鹅，不确定性始终存在。但她认为市场出现了增量资金，有如下分析：ETF净申购是12月最大的增量，对市场的稳定起了很大的托底作用。其它类别的机构，无论私募，保险还是外资仓位，仓位出清的过程都基本完成，仓位的绝对水平都是历史低位。给出三点“提示”李蓓在月报中给投资人强调以下三点：其一，后续要继续规避公募集体超配的行业和个股。更本质的是：主动公募和主观私募所面临的资金流出趋势，在未来一年都很难逆转。其二，这一波公募的卖出降仓位结束后，市场上所有的存量投资者就都会完成仓位出清。所以虽然年初市场表现的确低于预期，但中期上涨的障碍进一步的扫清了。其三，保险资金的入场，是我们之前一直预期的2024年主要的资金增量。从开年的表现来看，基本上也可以确定这种趋势已经正在发生，保险偏好的高股息类公司，开年后的相对跑赢比之前更加地流畅。再提大牛市数月以来，李蓓非常坚定看好未来大牛市趋势。她在此份月报中再次唱多，指出：当前是中长期和中短期共振的底部，而不仅仅是小周期底部，将来的这一轮中国股市牛市行情的级别，是会超过过去的2、3轮小牛市的，大概率超越5年一遇的级别，可能是10年甚至20年一遇的级别。她更把增量资金和市场演变的顺序，做了一番“演绎”：国家队托底，保险入市推动第一波触底回升；基本面担忧缓解后，外资逆转，机构持续加仓引发第二波上涨；赚钱效应引发存款搬家推动第三波泡沫化。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1008,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":375486628454576,"gmtCreate":1732675136498,"gmtModify":1732675578128,"author":{"id":"3506295545546950","authorId":"3506295545546950","name":"夏道休_2947","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/48e7cc4bb8e889742f10e6a6affea8c3","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506295545546950","authorIdStr":"3506295545546950"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"🦐🚗🥚，你TM是第一名","listText":"🦐🚗🥚，你TM是第一名","text":"🦐🚗🥚，你TM是第一名","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375486628454576","repostId":"375167663444408","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":375167663444408,"gmtCreate":1732635866941,"gmtModify":1732636225060,"author":{"id":"38637229394370","authorId":"38637229394370","name":"果子哥家老汉","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12d5c82e54917164a75cf6baa009bf55","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"38637229394370","authorIdStr":"38637229394370"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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