巴巴特的个人主页 - 老虎社区

巴巴特

想炒中概股短线，就得想庄家所想，想炒美股就得顺大盘而走

IP属地：广东

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0勋章

09-19

来人，喂公子吃饼

09-06

被选举政治绑架导致错过降息的时期上年年中就降的话还有的救非要搞制裁，非要造假数据只能硬着陆咯

策略师：为经济衰退做好准备，美联储恐无力回天

07-13

加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了

无视通胀降温！摩根大通CEO戴蒙再度警告通胀和利率可能处于高位

2020-07-02

$高频电子(FEIM)$60万空票，才500万流通市值，这又可能是逼空的庄股，小心做空

2019-04-26

$Twitter(TWTR)$ 哇塞，谁这么强势，要拉爆空头吗？$Twitter(TWTR)$

2019-01-16

$Microbot Medical Inc(MBOT)$ 哇塞，停牌了！怎么回事？

2019-01-16

$勒莫国航(GOL)$ 已经进入横幅震荡一个月了，得离场观望突破前高再进场了

2019-01-03

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 今天的这么一跌，把B站的情绪完全跌成恐慌，庄家也要糟了吧，今晚如果不拉上14.2估计短时间内就拉不上了，庄家多轮筑底都直接被打穿

2019-01-02

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 庄家又开始了，又要打下来吸筹了

2018-12-29

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 站上均线啦，买买买！目标17块！

2018-12-28

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 大家小心，庄家在出货了，还不知道是要打下来吸筹还是直接出货，小心一点

2018-12-26

$京东(JD)$ 京东频频爆出利好，估计是想借利好出货

2018-12-26

$MINDBODY, Inc.(MB)$ 嘿嘿，这股跳空高开，36有大支撑，如果能跌破36，跌到35.75就可以疯狂卖空了

2018-12-26

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 今天就精彩了，能判断做庄是吸筹还是打算再拉高出货，今天估计会跳开，拉到14.15附近震荡，能突破的话，到均线也有可能，能到均线那明天就应该高开涨一波了，星期五如果震仓那下礼拜就稳当，如果星期五还拉涨，那就可能是拉高出货了

2018-12-21

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 庄家这么辛苦洗的盘，那我大B站估计还真能彪到19块哦

2018-12-20

$富达南方银行(LION)$ 今天强势做空估计能到24刀

2018-12-20

$Pacific Drilling Ltd(PACD)$ 这股还有人买进？厉害啊，有胆量

2018-12-20

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ $哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 盘前说了要小心成为第二个趣店，还真灵验了，这波庄洗的厉害，不过BILI的股票还是适合长拿的，现在价钱就合适了，庄也改变不了长期趋势

2018-12-20

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 消息面是好，但还是不要太疯狂了，盘前抬的太高跌下来就惨了

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来人，喂公子吃饼","listText":"来人，喂公子吃饼","text":"来人，喂公子吃饼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350911916331256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346544887554080,"gmtCreate":1725635005723,"gmtModify":1725635217689,"author":{"id":"3506086340129599","authorId":"3506086340129599","name":"巴巴特","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506086340129599","authorIdStr":"3506086340129599"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"被选举政治绑架导致错过降息的时期 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Berezin警告，投资者需要为美国经济衰退做准备，随着经济状况恶化，美联储不太可能挽救局面。以下为全文内容。</p><p>如果把一杯温水放在冰箱里，它的温度会逐渐下降。最终水会结冰，从液体变成固体。除了让冰箱里的温度保持在零摄氏度以下，不需要发生任何新的事情就能产生这种“相变”。</p><p>同理的是美联储的紧缩货币政策对经济的影响。随着美联储收紧货币政策，美国经济正在降温，通胀下降和工资增长就是明证。如果美联储放任经济温度持续下降，它就会结冰。</p><p>2022年初，每个失业工人都有两个职位空缺。任何当时失业的人轻而易举就能找到新工作。这阻止了失业率上升。</p><p>如今事情不再那么简单了。职位空缺率已回落至新冠疫情前的水平。那些失去工作的人发现越来越难找到新工作。虽然过去12个月劳动力市场的大量涌入导致失业率上升，但近一半的增长还是是由于失业人数增加。</p><p><strong>劳动力市场疲软将削弱消费者支出。</strong>7月份的个人储蓄率为2.9%，不到2019年的一半。疫情期间的超额储蓄已经耗尽。按通胀调整后计算，收入最低的20%的人的银行存款低于2019年的水平。消费者贷款拖欠率已上升至2010年的水平，那一年的失业率是现在的两倍。</p><p><strong>房地产市场再次出现压力迹象。</strong>住宅建筑商信心在8月份降至今年迄今为止的最低水平。房屋销售疲软。新屋开工和许可已经延期。自今年年初以来，在建住房数量下降了8%以上。</p><p>与过去不同，建筑业的就业人数还没有下降，也许建筑商正在囤积劳动力，但如果住房建设继续疲软，该行业的裁员浪潮将随之而来。</p><p>商业房地产仍然处于低迷状态。写字楼空置率处于历史最高水平，并且仍呈上升趋势。办公楼、公寓、零售和酒店领域的违约率正在攀升。占商业地产贷款大部分的区域性银行将遭受更多损失。</p><p><strong>制造业活动再次放缓。</strong>ISM制造业指数的新订单分项在8月份降至2023年5月以来的最低水平。按实际价值计算，核心资本货物订单在过去两年中一直呈下降趋势。建筑支出得到了《芯片法案》和《通胀削减法案》提供的刺激措施的补贴。虽然绝对值仍然很高，但这一支出已经见顶，并将在未来几个季度下降。</p><p><strong>美联储不太可能挽救局面。</strong>其在2001年1月和2007年9月开始降息仅几个月后，经济就曾陷入衰退。</p><p>市场目前预计美联储将在未来12个月内降息2个百分点以上。只有美联储提供的宽松程度超过市场已经定价的水平，长期债券收益率才会从当前水平大幅下降。这不太可能发生，除非出现经济衰退。</p><p><strong>即使美联储的宽松政策确实超过市场预期，其影响也具有滞后性。</strong>事实上，随着低利率抵押贷款债务的减少，房主支付的平均抵押贷款利率明年几乎肯定会上升，并被高利率抵押贷款所取代。</p><p>在经济衰退的情况下，我们预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数（SPX）的远期市盈率将从21倍降至16倍，盈利预期将从当前水平下降10%。</p><p><strong>这将使标普500指数跌至3800点，较当前水平下跌近三分之一。</strong>相比之下，债券可能会表现良好。我们预计<strong>10年期美国国债收益率将在2025年降至3%。</strong>过去两年，投资者看好股票而不是债券是正确的。但现在，是时候翻转剧本了。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>策略师：为经济衰退做好准备，美联储恐无力回天</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=147638&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5596b0c7a5731bf931d7cb480f7ea7fb","relate_stocks":{"IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=147638&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2465537656","content_text":"加拿大投资研究公司策略师警告，在经济衰退的情况下，标普500指数将下跌三成。加拿大投资研究公司BCA Research的首席全球策略师Peter Berezin警告，投资者需要为美国经济衰退做准备，随着经济状况恶化，美联储不太可能挽救局面。以下为全文内容。如果把一杯温水放在冰箱里，它的温度会逐渐下降。最终水会结冰，从液体变成固体。除了让冰箱里的温度保持在零摄氏度以下，不需要发生任何新的事情就能产生这种“相变”。同理的是美联储的紧缩货币政策对经济的影响。随着美联储收紧货币政策，美国经济正在降温，通胀下降和工资增长就是明证。如果美联储放任经济温度持续下降，它就会结冰。2022年初，每个失业工人都有两个职位空缺。任何当时失业的人轻而易举就能找到新工作。这阻止了失业率上升。如今事情不再那么简单了。职位空缺率已回落至新冠疫情前的水平。那些失去工作的人发现越来越难找到新工作。虽然过去12个月劳动力市场的大量涌入导致失业率上升，但近一半的增长还是是由于失业人数增加。劳动力市场疲软将削弱消费者支出。7月份的个人储蓄率为2.9%，不到2019年的一半。疫情期间的超额储蓄已经耗尽。按通胀调整后计算，收入最低的20%的人的银行存款低于2019年的水平。消费者贷款拖欠率已上升至2010年的水平，那一年的失业率是现在的两倍。房地产市场再次出现压力迹象。住宅建筑商信心在8月份降至今年迄今为止的最低水平。房屋销售疲软。新屋开工和许可已经延期。自今年年初以来，在建住房数量下降了8%以上。与过去不同，建筑业的就业人数还没有下降，也许建筑商正在囤积劳动力，但如果住房建设继续疲软，该行业的裁员浪潮将随之而来。商业房地产仍然处于低迷状态。写字楼空置率处于历史最高水平，并且仍呈上升趋势。办公楼、公寓、零售和酒店领域的违约率正在攀升。占商业地产贷款大部分的区域性银行将遭受更多损失。制造业活动再次放缓。ISM制造业指数的新订单分项在8月份降至2023年5月以来的最低水平。按实际价值计算，核心资本货物订单在过去两年中一直呈下降趋势。建筑支出得到了《芯片法案》和《通胀削减法案》提供的刺激措施的补贴。虽然绝对值仍然很高，但这一支出已经见顶，并将在未来几个季度下降。美联储不太可能挽救局面。其在2001年1月和2007年9月开始降息仅几个月后，经济就曾陷入衰退。市场目前预计美联储将在未来12个月内降息2个百分点以上。只有美联储提供的宽松程度超过市场已经定价的水平，长期债券收益率才会从当前水平大幅下降。这不太可能发生，除非出现经济衰退。即使美联储的宽松政策确实超过市场预期，其影响也具有滞后性。事实上，随着低利率抵押贷款债务的减少，房主支付的平均抵押贷款利率明年几乎肯定会上升，并被高利率抵押贷款所取代。在经济衰退的情况下，我们预计标普500指数（SPX）的远期市盈率将从21倍降至16倍，盈利预期将从当前水平下降10%。这将使标普500指数跌至3800点，较当前水平下跌近三分之一。相比之下，债券可能会表现良好。我们预计10年期美国国债收益率将在2025年降至3%。过去两年，投资者看好股票而不是债券是正确的。但现在，是时候翻转剧本了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326857855697096,"gmtCreate":1720830887354,"gmtModify":1720830889355,"author":{"id":"3506086340129599","authorId":"3506086340129599","name":"巴巴特","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506086340129599","authorIdStr":"3506086340129599"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了","listText":"加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了","text":"加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326857855697096","repostId":"2451598808","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2451598808","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1720831830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2451598808?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-13 08:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"无视通胀降温！摩根大通CEO戴蒙再度警告通胀和利率可能处于高位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2451598808","media":"智通财经网","summary":"戴蒙最新表示，美国通胀降温取得了一些进展，但我们面前仍存在多重推动通胀的力量。因此，美国的通胀和利率可能继续高于市场预期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>尽管近期美国通胀出现缓解迹象，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>CEO戴蒙仍坚持其此前观点，周五再次就通胀和利率发出警告。</p><p>周五，摩根大通发布了第二季度财报，戴蒙同时发布声明表示：美国通胀降温取得了一些进展，但我们面前仍存在多重推动通胀的力量：巨额财政赤字、基础设施建设需求、贸易重组和全球再军事化。因此，美国的通胀和利率可能继续高于市场预期。</p><p>戴蒙与许多经济学家一起，对美国债务和赤字的激增发出警告。美国联邦政府在2024财年至今的支出比收入多8550亿美元。2023财年，美国政府的赤字支出为1.7万亿美元。</p><p>这不是戴蒙第一次警告敲打美国未来通胀形势。今年4月时他表示，美国的通胀和利率可能持续高于市场预期，已为美联储最高将利率上调至8%做好了准备。5月底时他表示，美国通胀和利率都会更高，当前价位不会回购公司股票。</p><p>周五美国几家大型银行公布财报，摩根大通是其中表现最好的，股价创下新高，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>、花旗银行股价则下挫。</p><p>本周，美国公布了CPI和PPI两大通胀数据。美国6月CPI环比四年来首次转负，核心CPI同比增速创逾三年新低，但PPI超预期反弹，同比增2.6%，核心PPI同比增3%，均为去年3月来最高，上月PPI数据大幅上修。</p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔本周早些时候表示担心，长期维持过高利率可能会危及经济增长，并暗示只要通胀继续取得进展，降息就可能即将到来。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>无视通胀降温！摩根大通CEO戴蒙再度警告通胀和利率可能处于高位</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n无视通胀降温！摩根大通CEO戴蒙再度警告通胀和利率可能处于高位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-13 08:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1150497.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管近期美国通胀出现缓解迹象，但摩根大通CEO戴蒙仍坚持其此前观点，周五再次就通胀和利率发出警告。周五，摩根大通发布了第二季度财报，戴蒙同时发布声明表示：美国通胀降温取得了一些进展，但我们面前仍存在多重推动通胀的力量：巨额财政赤字、基础设施建设需求、贸易重组和全球再军事化。因此，美国的通胀和利率可能继续高于市场预期。戴蒙与许多经济学家一起，对美国债务和赤字的激增发出警告。美国联邦政府在2024财年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1150497.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","JPM":"摩根大通","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL 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嘿嘿，这股跳空高开，36有大支撑，如果能跌破36，跌到35.75就可以疯狂卖空了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/364946","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2333,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350911916331256,"gmtCreate":1726697425412,"gmtModify":1726697427316,"author":{"id":"3506086340129599","authorId":"3506086340129599","name":"巴巴特","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506086340129599","authorIdStr":"3506086340129599"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"来人，喂公子吃饼","listText":"来人，喂公子吃饼","text":"来人，喂公子吃饼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350911916331256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":575,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346544887554080,"gmtCreate":1725635005723,"gmtModify":1725635217689,"author":{"id":"3506086340129599","authorId":"3506086340129599","name":"巴巴特","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506086340129599","authorIdStr":"3506086340129599"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"被选举政治绑架导致错过降息的时期 上年年中就降的话还有的救 非要搞制裁，非要造假数据 只能硬着陆咯","listText":"被选举政治绑架导致错过降息的时期 上年年中就降的话还有的救 非要搞制裁，非要造假数据 只能硬着陆咯","text":"被选举政治绑架导致错过降息的时期 上年年中就降的话还有的救 非要搞制裁，非要造假数据 只能硬着陆咯","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346544887554080","repostId":"2465537656","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2465537656","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1725606911,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2465537656?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-06 15:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"策略师：为经济衰退做好准备，美联储恐无力回天","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2465537656","media":"金十数据","summary":"加拿大投资研究公司策略师警告，在经济衰退的情况下，标普500指数将下跌三成。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>加拿大投资研究公司策略师警告，在经济衰退的情况下，标普500指数将下跌三成。</p></blockquote><p>加拿大投资研究公司BCA Research的首席全球策略师Peter Berezin警告，投资者需要为美国经济衰退做准备，随着经济状况恶化，美联储不太可能挽救局面。以下为全文内容。</p><p>如果把一杯温水放在冰箱里，它的温度会逐渐下降。最终水会结冰，从液体变成固体。除了让冰箱里的温度保持在零摄氏度以下，不需要发生任何新的事情就能产生这种“相变”。</p><p>同理的是美联储的紧缩货币政策对经济的影响。随着美联储收紧货币政策，美国经济正在降温，通胀下降和工资增长就是明证。如果美联储放任经济温度持续下降，它就会结冰。</p><p>2022年初，每个失业工人都有两个职位空缺。任何当时失业的人轻而易举就能找到新工作。这阻止了失业率上升。</p><p>如今事情不再那么简单了。职位空缺率已回落至新冠疫情前的水平。那些失去工作的人发现越来越难找到新工作。虽然过去12个月劳动力市场的大量涌入导致失业率上升，但近一半的增长还是是由于失业人数增加。</p><p><strong>劳动力市场疲软将削弱消费者支出。</strong>7月份的个人储蓄率为2.9%，不到2019年的一半。疫情期间的超额储蓄已经耗尽。按通胀调整后计算，收入最低的20%的人的银行存款低于2019年的水平。消费者贷款拖欠率已上升至2010年的水平，那一年的失业率是现在的两倍。</p><p><strong>房地产市场再次出现压力迹象。</strong>住宅建筑商信心在8月份降至今年迄今为止的最低水平。房屋销售疲软。新屋开工和许可已经延期。自今年年初以来，在建住房数量下降了8%以上。</p><p>与过去不同，建筑业的就业人数还没有下降，也许建筑商正在囤积劳动力，但如果住房建设继续疲软，该行业的裁员浪潮将随之而来。</p><p>商业房地产仍然处于低迷状态。写字楼空置率处于历史最高水平，并且仍呈上升趋势。办公楼、公寓、零售和酒店领域的违约率正在攀升。占商业地产贷款大部分的区域性银行将遭受更多损失。</p><p><strong>制造业活动再次放缓。</strong>ISM制造业指数的新订单分项在8月份降至2023年5月以来的最低水平。按实际价值计算，核心资本货物订单在过去两年中一直呈下降趋势。建筑支出得到了《芯片法案》和《通胀削减法案》提供的刺激措施的补贴。虽然绝对值仍然很高，但这一支出已经见顶，并将在未来几个季度下降。</p><p><strong>美联储不太可能挽救局面。</strong>其在2001年1月和2007年9月开始降息仅几个月后，经济就曾陷入衰退。</p><p>市场目前预计美联储将在未来12个月内降息2个百分点以上。只有美联储提供的宽松程度超过市场已经定价的水平，长期债券收益率才会从当前水平大幅下降。这不太可能发生，除非出现经济衰退。</p><p><strong>即使美联储的宽松政策确实超过市场预期，其影响也具有滞后性。</strong>事实上，随着低利率抵押贷款债务的减少，房主支付的平均抵押贷款利率明年几乎肯定会上升，并被高利率抵押贷款所取代。</p><p>在经济衰退的情况下，我们预计<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数（SPX）的远期市盈率将从21倍降至16倍，盈利预期将从当前水平下降10%。</p><p><strong>这将使标普500指数跌至3800点，较当前水平下跌近三分之一。</strong>相比之下，债券可能会表现良好。我们预计<strong>10年期美国国债收益率将在2025年降至3%。</strong>过去两年，投资者看好股票而不是债券是正确的。但现在，是时候翻转剧本了。</p></body></html>","source":"xnew_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>策略师：为经济衰退做好准备，美联储恐无力回天</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n策略师：为经济衰退做好准备，美联储恐无力回天\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-09-06 15:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=147638&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>加拿大投资研究公司策略师警告，在经济衰退的情况下，标普500指数将下跌三成。加拿大投资研究公司BCA Research的首席全球策略师Peter Berezin警告，投资者需要为美国经济衰退做准备，随着经济状况恶化，美联储不太可能挽救局面。以下为全文内容。如果把一杯温水放在冰箱里，它的温度会逐渐下降。最终水会结冰，从液体变成固体。除了让冰箱里的温度保持在零摄氏度以下，不需要发生任何新的事情就能产生...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=147638&type=news&data_type=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5596b0c7a5731bf931d7cb480f7ea7fb","relate_stocks":{"IVV":"标普500指数ETF","OEX":"标普100","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","BK4581":"高盛持仓","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","BK4588":"碎股","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=147638&type=news&data_type=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2465537656","content_text":"加拿大投资研究公司策略师警告，在经济衰退的情况下，标普500指数将下跌三成。加拿大投资研究公司BCA Research的首席全球策略师Peter Berezin警告，投资者需要为美国经济衰退做准备，随着经济状况恶化，美联储不太可能挽救局面。以下为全文内容。如果把一杯温水放在冰箱里，它的温度会逐渐下降。最终水会结冰，从液体变成固体。除了让冰箱里的温度保持在零摄氏度以下，不需要发生任何新的事情就能产生这种“相变”。同理的是美联储的紧缩货币政策对经济的影响。随着美联储收紧货币政策，美国经济正在降温，通胀下降和工资增长就是明证。如果美联储放任经济温度持续下降，它就会结冰。2022年初，每个失业工人都有两个职位空缺。任何当时失业的人轻而易举就能找到新工作。这阻止了失业率上升。如今事情不再那么简单了。职位空缺率已回落至新冠疫情前的水平。那些失去工作的人发现越来越难找到新工作。虽然过去12个月劳动力市场的大量涌入导致失业率上升，但近一半的增长还是是由于失业人数增加。劳动力市场疲软将削弱消费者支出。7月份的个人储蓄率为2.9%，不到2019年的一半。疫情期间的超额储蓄已经耗尽。按通胀调整后计算，收入最低的20%的人的银行存款低于2019年的水平。消费者贷款拖欠率已上升至2010年的水平，那一年的失业率是现在的两倍。房地产市场再次出现压力迹象。住宅建筑商信心在8月份降至今年迄今为止的最低水平。房屋销售疲软。新屋开工和许可已经延期。自今年年初以来，在建住房数量下降了8%以上。与过去不同，建筑业的就业人数还没有下降，也许建筑商正在囤积劳动力，但如果住房建设继续疲软，该行业的裁员浪潮将随之而来。商业房地产仍然处于低迷状态。写字楼空置率处于历史最高水平，并且仍呈上升趋势。办公楼、公寓、零售和酒店领域的违约率正在攀升。占商业地产贷款大部分的区域性银行将遭受更多损失。制造业活动再次放缓。ISM制造业指数的新订单分项在8月份降至2023年5月以来的最低水平。按实际价值计算，核心资本货物订单在过去两年中一直呈下降趋势。建筑支出得到了《芯片法案》和《通胀削减法案》提供的刺激措施的补贴。虽然绝对值仍然很高，但这一支出已经见顶，并将在未来几个季度下降。美联储不太可能挽救局面。其在2001年1月和2007年9月开始降息仅几个月后，经济就曾陷入衰退。市场目前预计美联储将在未来12个月内降息2个百分点以上。只有美联储提供的宽松程度超过市场已经定价的水平，长期债券收益率才会从当前水平大幅下降。这不太可能发生，除非出现经济衰退。即使美联储的宽松政策确实超过市场预期，其影响也具有滞后性。事实上，随着低利率抵押贷款债务的减少，房主支付的平均抵押贷款利率明年几乎肯定会上升，并被高利率抵押贷款所取代。在经济衰退的情况下，我们预计标普500指数（SPX）的远期市盈率将从21倍降至16倍，盈利预期将从当前水平下降10%。这将使标普500指数跌至3800点，较当前水平下跌近三分之一。相比之下，债券可能会表现良好。我们预计10年期美国国债收益率将在2025年降至3%。过去两年，投资者看好股票而不是债券是正确的。但现在，是时候翻转剧本了。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326857855697096,"gmtCreate":1720830887354,"gmtModify":1720830889355,"author":{"id":"3506086340129599","authorId":"3506086340129599","name":"巴巴特","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3506086340129599","authorIdStr":"3506086340129599"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了","listText":"加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了","text":"加到8%？历史上接近7%的最后都破产了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326857855697096","repostId":"2451598808","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2451598808","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1720831830,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2451598808?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-07-13 08:50","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"无视通胀降温！摩根大通CEO戴蒙再度警告通胀和利率可能处于高位","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2451598808","media":"智通财经网","summary":"戴蒙最新表示，美国通胀降温取得了一些进展，但我们面前仍存在多重推动通胀的力量。因此，美国的通胀和利率可能继续高于市场预期。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>尽管近期美国通胀出现缓解迹象，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>CEO戴蒙仍坚持其此前观点，周五再次就通胀和利率发出警告。</p><p>周五，摩根大通发布了第二季度财报，戴蒙同时发布声明表示：美国通胀降温取得了一些进展，但我们面前仍存在多重推动通胀的力量：巨额财政赤字、基础设施建设需求、贸易重组和全球再军事化。因此，美国的通胀和利率可能继续高于市场预期。</p><p>戴蒙与许多经济学家一起，对美国债务和赤字的激增发出警告。美国联邦政府在2024财年至今的支出比收入多8550亿美元。2023财年，美国政府的赤字支出为1.7万亿美元。</p><p>这不是戴蒙第一次警告敲打美国未来通胀形势。今年4月时他表示，美国的通胀和利率可能持续高于市场预期，已为美联储最高将利率上调至8%做好了准备。5月底时他表示，美国通胀和利率都会更高，当前价位不会回购公司股票。</p><p>周五美国几家大型银行公布财报，摩根大通是其中表现最好的，股价创下新高，而<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>、花旗银行股价则下挫。</p><p>本周，美国公布了CPI和PPI两大通胀数据。美国6月CPI环比四年来首次转负，核心CPI同比增速创逾三年新低，但PPI超预期反弹，同比增2.6%，核心PPI同比增3%，均为去年3月来最高，上月PPI数据大幅上修。</p><p>美联储主席鲍威尔本周早些时候表示担心，长期维持过高利率可能会危及经济增长，并暗示只要通胀继续取得进展，降息就可能即将到来。</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>无视通胀降温！摩根大通CEO戴蒙再度警告通胀和利率可能处于高位</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n无视通胀降温！摩根大通CEO戴蒙再度警告通胀和利率可能处于高位\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-07-13 08:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1150497.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管近期美国通胀出现缓解迹象，但摩根大通CEO戴蒙仍坚持其此前观点，周五再次就通胀和利率发出警告。周五，摩根大通发布了第二季度财报，戴蒙同时发布声明表示：美国通胀降温取得了一些进展，但我们面前仍存在多重推动通胀的力量：巨额财政赤字、基础设施建设需求、贸易重组和全球再军事化。因此，美国的通胀和利率可能继续高于市场预期。戴蒙与许多经济学家一起，对美国债务和赤字的激增发出警告。美国联邦政府在2024财年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1150497.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb5398fed733ffbbc94ab1b9a49946a8","relate_stocks":{"IE00B3S45H60.SGD":"Neuberger Berman US Multicap Opportunities A Acc SGD-H","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","IE00BHPRN162.USD":"BNY MELLON BLOCKCHAIN INNOVATION \"B\" (USD) ACC","LU1670628061.USD":"M&G (LUX) NORTH AMERICAN DIVIDEND \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BJTD4V19.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US LONG SHORT EQUITY \"A1\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0208291251.USD":"FRANKLIN MUTUAL U.S. VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00B1XK9C88.USD":"PINEBRIDGE US LARGE CAP RESEARCH ENHANCED \"A\" (USD) ACC","JPM":"摩根大通","LU1084165304.USD":"FIDELITY WORLD \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL 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