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pomy
2020-01-30
脑子里装的全是si
“新冠”疫情不可怕!我们该全面操心经济了
pomy
2018-11-23
$华兴资本控股(01911)$ 今天要涨一波
pomy
2018-11-21
$华兴资本控股(01911)$ 每次回购都会带来一波📈 感觉全靠回购拉升股价
pomy
2018-11-21
$美团点评-W(03690)$ 看样子要跟进$小米集团-W(01810)$ 的节奏???
pomy
2018-11-20
$小米集团-W(01810)$ 今天很坚挺
pomy
2018-11-16
$小米集团-W(01810)$ 又回到12了 是不是可以抄底一波?
pomy
2018-11-14
$腾讯控股(00700)$ 财报好于市场预期 明天跌还是涨?
pomy
2018-11-09
$腾讯控股(00700)$ 20周年又咋样?让你跌还的跌
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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/></p><p><b><span>直接说重点:</span></b></p><p><span>1,只要地方官吏放下了所谓的面子与政绩,新冠就一定会控制住。时间问题。</span><b><span>所有可预判的问题都不可怕,包括新冠</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>2,现在开始,我们应该自上而下,全面操心经济。经济不可能一直停下去。企业,尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。</span><b><span>家庭的资产负债表再恶化,家庭也不会消失。但很多中小企业现金流量表与资产负债表一旦恶化超过一定时长,一口气缓不过来,这个企业就可能没有回头路了</span></b><span>。救它们,更需要争分夺秒;</span></p><p><span>3,2003年非典,四个季度GDP增速分别为11.1%、9.1%、10%和10%,非典主要影响了2季度GDP增速约1.5个百分点。全年看,受影响最大的第三产业增加值减慢0.8个百分点。当年第三产业占GDP比重为32%,也即非典大致影响当年GDP增速0.3—0.5个百分点,并不算大。</span><b><span>绝大多数人正是依据SARS的经验来判断新冠对经济的影响,但这会带来重大误判与误导;</span></b></p><p><span>4,</span><span><b>2003年,中国经济还是一个睡凉席都不感冒的二十岁小伙</b></span><span>。彼时GDP总量仅11.7万亿,2019年已是99万亿。而且,彼时最易受病毒冲击的三产规模不大,其增加值占GDP比重仅为32%,三分之一不到。但同样的数据,2019年已经达到54%,超过一半——仅按这个数据,</span><span><b>新冠就可以轻松拉低全年GDP一个点。</b></span></p><p><span>更关键的是,</span><span><b>2003年中国刚加入WTO不久</b></span><span>,正在全面享受融入全球分工与市场的红利——</span><span><b>这是中国经济史上唯一可以与1979年中美建交并改革开放相提并论的重大拐点性事件,同时中国自身经济也正处在重化工业化、城镇化和人口红利消费升级的自我强化上升阶段,内外的修复能力与上升动能都堪称充足。</b></span></p><p><span>但现如今的经济身体素质,早已今非昔比。具体数据我不展开了,在我过去的分析里很详尽;</span></p><p><span>5,</span><span><b>还有一个巨大的黑天鹅变量,多数人都还没有纳入考量模型</b></span><span>。世卫组织(WHO)将于近日召开紧急会议,以确定是否把中国新冠纳入“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件" ——用普通话粗暴翻译,就是是否把中国纳入疫区,而考量的核心因素,就是病毒持续人传人的能力。事实上,柳叶刀确定的新冠病毒R值(平均每个病毒患者(携带者)要传染的人数)为2.90——3.1,远超非典1.77和1.85的R值。</span></p><p><span>纳入公共卫生事件,意味着如果没有大规模的应对行动,疫情将无法被妥善控制 。</span><b><span>这个纳入是一把双刃剑</span></b><span>,一方面有助于全世界高度重视疫情防控,疫区国家也能得到更多支援,但另一方面,</span><span><b>世界其他国家大概率会对疫区实行旅行和贸易限制,形同实际意义上的经济制裁</b></span><span>。这对疫区经济是不可承受之重。过去十年WHO宣布过五起 纳入,最近一次是去年七月针对刚果(金)的埃博拉疫情,该疫情超过2500例感染。</span></p><p><span>6,回到我文首说的,新冠并不可怕,现在我们自上而下,应该开始全方位操心经济,行动越快越好。</span><b><span>乱世重典,现在小修小补已于事无补</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>我的建议是:</span></b></p><p><b><span>首先,动用所有官方力量与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01051\">国际资源</a>,绝对不能让WHO将新冠纳入公共卫生事件,绝对不能;</span></b></p><p><b><span>其次,捆住地方政府的手,缩减和砍削所有基建开支,将钱通过退税和补贴的方式,直接返还给企业与个人,以最大程度修复家庭和企业的资产负债表,增加民间投资与消费信心;</span></b></p><p><b><span>第三,才是大规模减税。税收返还是即期的,减税是未来,于当下,助力不大。当下是要输血救人。</span></b></p><p><b><span>第四,才是考虑增加财政赤字到3以上,让政府花钱</span></b><span>。没有前面的输血,老套路的政府花钱,极大可能吃力不讨好——企业太虚,根本无力承接。</span></p><p><b><span>7,再强调一遍:</span></b></p><p><b><span>经济是主战场!</span></b></p><p><b><span>有经济,才有未来!</span></b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新冠”疫情不可怕!我们该全面操心经济了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新冠”疫情不可怕!我们该全面操心经济了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-01-30 15:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/791a7ad4ff412aa090638a75f9ee16aa\" /></p><p><b><span>直接说重点:</span></b></p><p><span>1,只要地方官吏放下了所谓的面子与政绩,新冠就一定会控制住。时间问题。</span><b><span>所有可预判的问题都不可怕,包括新冠</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>2,现在开始,我们应该自上而下,全面操心经济。经济不可能一直停下去。企业,尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。</span><b><span>家庭的资产负债表再恶化,家庭也不会消失。但很多中小企业现金流量表与资产负债表一旦恶化超过一定时长,一口气缓不过来,这个企业就可能没有回头路了</span></b><span>。救它们,更需要争分夺秒;</span></p><p><span>3,2003年非典,四个季度GDP增速分别为11.1%、9.1%、10%和10%,非典主要影响了2季度GDP增速约1.5个百分点。全年看,受影响最大的第三产业增加值减慢0.8个百分点。当年第三产业占GDP比重为32%,也即非典大致影响当年GDP增速0.3—0.5个百分点,并不算大。</span><b><span>绝大多数人正是依据SARS的经验来判断新冠对经济的影响,但这会带来重大误判与误导;</span></b></p><p><span>4,</span><span><b>2003年,中国经济还是一个睡凉席都不感冒的二十岁小伙</b></span><span>。彼时GDP总量仅11.7万亿,2019年已是99万亿。而且,彼时最易受病毒冲击的三产规模不大,其增加值占GDP比重仅为32%,三分之一不到。但同样的数据,2019年已经达到54%,超过一半——仅按这个数据,</span><span><b>新冠就可以轻松拉低全年GDP一个点。</b></span></p><p><span>更关键的是,</span><span><b>2003年中国刚加入WTO不久</b></span><span>,正在全面享受融入全球分工与市场的红利——</span><span><b>这是中国经济史上唯一可以与1979年中美建交并改革开放相提并论的重大拐点性事件,同时中国自身经济也正处在重化工业化、城镇化和人口红利消费升级的自我强化上升阶段,内外的修复能力与上升动能都堪称充足。</b></span></p><p><span>但现如今的经济身体素质,早已今非昔比。具体数据我不展开了,在我过去的分析里很详尽;</span></p><p><span>5,</span><span><b>还有一个巨大的黑天鹅变量,多数人都还没有纳入考量模型</b></span><span>。世卫组织(WHO)将于近日召开紧急会议,以确定是否把中国新冠纳入“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件" ——用普通话粗暴翻译,就是是否把中国纳入疫区,而考量的核心因素,就是病毒持续人传人的能力。事实上,柳叶刀确定的新冠病毒R值(平均每个病毒患者(携带者)要传染的人数)为2.90——3.1,远超非典1.77和1.85的R值。</span></p><p><span>纳入公共卫生事件,意味着如果没有大规模的应对行动,疫情将无法被妥善控制 。</span><b><span>这个纳入是一把双刃剑</span></b><span>,一方面有助于全世界高度重视疫情防控,疫区国家也能得到更多支援,但另一方面,</span><span><b>世界其他国家大概率会对疫区实行旅行和贸易限制,形同实际意义上的经济制裁</b></span><span>。这对疫区经济是不可承受之重。过去十年WHO宣布过五起 纳入,最近一次是去年七月针对刚果(金)的埃博拉疫情,该疫情超过2500例感染。</span></p><p><span>6,回到我文首说的,新冠并不可怕,现在我们自上而下,应该开始全方位操心经济,行动越快越好。</span><b><span>乱世重典,现在小修小补已于事无补</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>我的建议是:</span></b></p><p><b><span>首先,动用所有官方力量与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01051\">国际资源</a>,绝对不能让WHO将新冠纳入公共卫生事件,绝对不能;</span></b></p><p><b><span>其次,捆住地方政府的手,缩减和砍削所有基建开支,将钱通过退税和补贴的方式,直接返还给企业与个人,以最大程度修复家庭和企业的资产负债表,增加民间投资与消费信心;</span></b></p><p><b><span>第三,才是大规模减税。税收返还是即期的,减税是未来,于当下,助力不大。当下是要输血救人。</span></b></p><p><b><span>第四,才是考虑增加财政赤字到3以上,让政府花钱</span></b><span>。没有前面的输血,老套路的政府花钱,极大可能吃力不讨好——企业太虚,根本无力承接。</span></p><p><b><span>7,再强调一遍:</span></b></p><p><b><span>经济是主战场!</span></b></p><p><b><span>有经济,才有未来!</span></b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139503311","content_text":"直接说重点:1,只要地方官吏放下了所谓的面子与政绩,新冠就一定会控制住。时间问题。所有可预判的问题都不可怕,包括新冠。2,现在开始,我们应该自上而下,全面操心经济。经济不可能一直停下去。企业,尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。家庭的资产负债表再恶化,家庭也不会消失。但很多中小企业现金流量表与资产负债表一旦恶化超过一定时长,一口气缓不过来,这个企业就可能没有回头路了。救它们,更需要争分夺秒;3,2003年非典,四个季度GDP增速分别为11.1%、9.1%、10%和10%,非典主要影响了2季度GDP增速约1.5个百分点。全年看,受影响最大的第三产业增加值减慢0.8个百分点。当年第三产业占GDP比重为32%,也即非典大致影响当年GDP增速0.3—0.5个百分点,并不算大。绝大多数人正是依据SARS的经验来判断新冠对经济的影响,但这会带来重大误判与误导;4,2003年,中国经济还是一个睡凉席都不感冒的二十岁小伙。彼时GDP总量仅11.7万亿,2019年已是99万亿。而且,彼时最易受病毒冲击的三产规模不大,其增加值占GDP比重仅为32%,三分之一不到。但同样的数据,2019年已经达到54%,超过一半——仅按这个数据,新冠就可以轻松拉低全年GDP一个点。更关键的是,2003年中国刚加入WTO不久,正在全面享受融入全球分工与市场的红利——这是中国经济史上唯一可以与1979年中美建交并改革开放相提并论的重大拐点性事件,同时中国自身经济也正处在重化工业化、城镇化和人口红利消费升级的自我强化上升阶段,内外的修复能力与上升动能都堪称充足。但现如今的经济身体素质,早已今非昔比。具体数据我不展开了,在我过去的分析里很详尽;5,还有一个巨大的黑天鹅变量,多数人都还没有纳入考量模型。世卫组织(WHO)将于近日召开紧急会议,以确定是否把中国新冠纳入“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件\" ——用普通话粗暴翻译,就是是否把中国纳入疫区,而考量的核心因素,就是病毒持续人传人的能力。事实上,柳叶刀确定的新冠病毒R值(平均每个病毒患者(携带者)要传染的人数)为2.90——3.1,远超非典1.77和1.85的R值。纳入公共卫生事件,意味着如果没有大规模的应对行动,疫情将无法被妥善控制 。这个纳入是一把双刃剑,一方面有助于全世界高度重视疫情防控,疫区国家也能得到更多支援,但另一方面,世界其他国家大概率会对疫区实行旅行和贸易限制,形同实际意义上的经济制裁。这对疫区经济是不可承受之重。过去十年WHO宣布过五起 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明天跌还是涨?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/330387","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":335137,"gmtCreate":1542686199910,"gmtModify":1704781362506,"author":{"id":"3502780081853159","authorId":"3502780081853159","name":"pomy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 今天很坚挺","listText":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 今天很坚挺","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 今天很坚挺","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/335137","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1025,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":336607,"gmtCreate":1542765340864,"gmtModify":1704781543935,"author":{"id":"3502780081853159","authorId":"3502780081853159","name":"pomy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$美团点评-W(03690)$ 看样子要跟进$小米集团-W(01810)$ 的节奏???","listText":"$美团点评-W(03690)$ 看样子要跟进$小米集团-W(01810)$ 的节奏???","text":"$美团点评-W(03690)$ 看样子要跟进$小米集团-W(01810)$ 的节奏???","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/336607","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":326958,"gmtCreate":1541741000455,"gmtModify":1704780318593,"author":{"id":"3502780081853159","authorId":"3502780081853159","name":"pomy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 20周年又咋样?让你跌还的跌","listText":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 20周年又咋样?让你跌还的跌","text":"$腾讯控股(00700)$ 20周年又咋样?让你跌还的跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/326958","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":912424529,"gmtCreate":1580399816161,"gmtModify":1704341502424,"author":{"id":"3502780081853159","authorId":"3502780081853159","name":"pomy","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"脑子里装的全是si","listText":"脑子里装的全是si","text":"脑子里装的全是si","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/912424529","repostId":"1139503311","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139503311","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"格隆汇旗下公众号。分享和探讨港股、美国中概股以及少量估值确有吸引力之A股的投资线索、投资机会与投资心得.","home_visible":1,"media_name":"格隆汇","id":"3","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d"},"pubTimestamp":1580369141,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139503311?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-01-30 15:25","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"“新冠”疫情不可怕!我们该全面操心经济了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139503311","media":"格隆汇","summary":"企业,尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。","content":"<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/791a7ad4ff412aa090638a75f9ee16aa\" /></p><p><b><span>直接说重点:</span></b></p><p><span>1,只要地方官吏放下了所谓的面子与政绩,新冠就一定会控制住。时间问题。</span><b><span>所有可预判的问题都不可怕,包括新冠</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>2,现在开始,我们应该自上而下,全面操心经济。经济不可能一直停下去。企业,尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。</span><b><span>家庭的资产负债表再恶化,家庭也不会消失。但很多中小企业现金流量表与资产负债表一旦恶化超过一定时长,一口气缓不过来,这个企业就可能没有回头路了</span></b><span>。救它们,更需要争分夺秒;</span></p><p><span>3,2003年非典,四个季度GDP增速分别为11.1%、9.1%、10%和10%,非典主要影响了2季度GDP增速约1.5个百分点。全年看,受影响最大的第三产业增加值减慢0.8个百分点。当年第三产业占GDP比重为32%,也即非典大致影响当年GDP增速0.3—0.5个百分点,并不算大。</span><b><span>绝大多数人正是依据SARS的经验来判断新冠对经济的影响,但这会带来重大误判与误导;</span></b></p><p><span>4,</span><span><b>2003年,中国经济还是一个睡凉席都不感冒的二十岁小伙</b></span><span>。彼时GDP总量仅11.7万亿,2019年已是99万亿。而且,彼时最易受病毒冲击的三产规模不大,其增加值占GDP比重仅为32%,三分之一不到。但同样的数据,2019年已经达到54%,超过一半——仅按这个数据,</span><span><b>新冠就可以轻松拉低全年GDP一个点。</b></span></p><p><span>更关键的是,</span><span><b>2003年中国刚加入WTO不久</b></span><span>,正在全面享受融入全球分工与市场的红利——</span><span><b>这是中国经济史上唯一可以与1979年中美建交并改革开放相提并论的重大拐点性事件,同时中国自身经济也正处在重化工业化、城镇化和人口红利消费升级的自我强化上升阶段,内外的修复能力与上升动能都堪称充足。</b></span></p><p><span>但现如今的经济身体素质,早已今非昔比。具体数据我不展开了,在我过去的分析里很详尽;</span></p><p><span>5,</span><span><b>还有一个巨大的黑天鹅变量,多数人都还没有纳入考量模型</b></span><span>。世卫组织(WHO)将于近日召开紧急会议,以确定是否把中国新冠纳入“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件" ——用普通话粗暴翻译,就是是否把中国纳入疫区,而考量的核心因素,就是病毒持续人传人的能力。事实上,柳叶刀确定的新冠病毒R值(平均每个病毒患者(携带者)要传染的人数)为2.90——3.1,远超非典1.77和1.85的R值。</span></p><p><span>纳入公共卫生事件,意味着如果没有大规模的应对行动,疫情将无法被妥善控制 。</span><b><span>这个纳入是一把双刃剑</span></b><span>,一方面有助于全世界高度重视疫情防控,疫区国家也能得到更多支援,但另一方面,</span><span><b>世界其他国家大概率会对疫区实行旅行和贸易限制,形同实际意义上的经济制裁</b></span><span>。这对疫区经济是不可承受之重。过去十年WHO宣布过五起 纳入,最近一次是去年七月针对刚果(金)的埃博拉疫情,该疫情超过2500例感染。</span></p><p><span>6,回到我文首说的,新冠并不可怕,现在我们自上而下,应该开始全方位操心经济,行动越快越好。</span><b><span>乱世重典,现在小修小补已于事无补</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>我的建议是:</span></b></p><p><b><span>首先,动用所有官方力量与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01051\">国际资源</a>,绝对不能让WHO将新冠纳入公共卫生事件,绝对不能;</span></b></p><p><b><span>其次,捆住地方政府的手,缩减和砍削所有基建开支,将钱通过退税和补贴的方式,直接返还给企业与个人,以最大程度修复家庭和企业的资产负债表,增加民间投资与消费信心;</span></b></p><p><b><span>第三,才是大规模减税。税收返还是即期的,减税是未来,于当下,助力不大。当下是要输血救人。</span></b></p><p><b><span>第四,才是考虑增加财政赤字到3以上,让政府花钱</span></b><span>。没有前面的输血,老套路的政府花钱,极大可能吃力不讨好——企业太虚,根本无力承接。</span></p><p><b><span>7,再强调一遍:</span></b></p><p><b><span>经济是主战场!</span></b></p><p><b><span>有经济,才有未来!</span></b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“新冠”疫情不可怕!我们该全面操心经济了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“新冠”疫情不可怕!我们该全面操心经济了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-01-30 15:25</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/791a7ad4ff412aa090638a75f9ee16aa\" /></p><p><b><span>直接说重点:</span></b></p><p><span>1,只要地方官吏放下了所谓的面子与政绩,新冠就一定会控制住。时间问题。</span><b><span>所有可预判的问题都不可怕,包括新冠</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><span>2,现在开始,我们应该自上而下,全面操心经济。经济不可能一直停下去。企业,尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。</span><b><span>家庭的资产负债表再恶化,家庭也不会消失。但很多中小企业现金流量表与资产负债表一旦恶化超过一定时长,一口气缓不过来,这个企业就可能没有回头路了</span></b><span>。救它们,更需要争分夺秒;</span></p><p><span>3,2003年非典,四个季度GDP增速分别为11.1%、9.1%、10%和10%,非典主要影响了2季度GDP增速约1.5个百分点。全年看,受影响最大的第三产业增加值减慢0.8个百分点。当年第三产业占GDP比重为32%,也即非典大致影响当年GDP增速0.3—0.5个百分点,并不算大。</span><b><span>绝大多数人正是依据SARS的经验来判断新冠对经济的影响,但这会带来重大误判与误导;</span></b></p><p><span>4,</span><span><b>2003年,中国经济还是一个睡凉席都不感冒的二十岁小伙</b></span><span>。彼时GDP总量仅11.7万亿,2019年已是99万亿。而且,彼时最易受病毒冲击的三产规模不大,其增加值占GDP比重仅为32%,三分之一不到。但同样的数据,2019年已经达到54%,超过一半——仅按这个数据,</span><span><b>新冠就可以轻松拉低全年GDP一个点。</b></span></p><p><span>更关键的是,</span><span><b>2003年中国刚加入WTO不久</b></span><span>,正在全面享受融入全球分工与市场的红利——</span><span><b>这是中国经济史上唯一可以与1979年中美建交并改革开放相提并论的重大拐点性事件,同时中国自身经济也正处在重化工业化、城镇化和人口红利消费升级的自我强化上升阶段,内外的修复能力与上升动能都堪称充足。</b></span></p><p><span>但现如今的经济身体素质,早已今非昔比。具体数据我不展开了,在我过去的分析里很详尽;</span></p><p><span>5,</span><span><b>还有一个巨大的黑天鹅变量,多数人都还没有纳入考量模型</b></span><span>。世卫组织(WHO)将于近日召开紧急会议,以确定是否把中国新冠纳入“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件" ——用普通话粗暴翻译,就是是否把中国纳入疫区,而考量的核心因素,就是病毒持续人传人的能力。事实上,柳叶刀确定的新冠病毒R值(平均每个病毒患者(携带者)要传染的人数)为2.90——3.1,远超非典1.77和1.85的R值。</span></p><p><span>纳入公共卫生事件,意味着如果没有大规模的应对行动,疫情将无法被妥善控制 。</span><b><span>这个纳入是一把双刃剑</span></b><span>,一方面有助于全世界高度重视疫情防控,疫区国家也能得到更多支援,但另一方面,</span><span><b>世界其他国家大概率会对疫区实行旅行和贸易限制,形同实际意义上的经济制裁</b></span><span>。这对疫区经济是不可承受之重。过去十年WHO宣布过五起 纳入,最近一次是去年七月针对刚果(金)的埃博拉疫情,该疫情超过2500例感染。</span></p><p><span>6,回到我文首说的,新冠并不可怕,现在我们自上而下,应该开始全方位操心经济,行动越快越好。</span><b><span>乱世重典,现在小修小补已于事无补</span></b><span>。</span></p><p><b><span>我的建议是:</span></b></p><p><b><span>首先,动用所有官方力量与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01051\">国际资源</a>,绝对不能让WHO将新冠纳入公共卫生事件,绝对不能;</span></b></p><p><b><span>其次,捆住地方政府的手,缩减和砍削所有基建开支,将钱通过退税和补贴的方式,直接返还给企业与个人,以最大程度修复家庭和企业的资产负债表,增加民间投资与消费信心;</span></b></p><p><b><span>第三,才是大规模减税。税收返还是即期的,减税是未来,于当下,助力不大。当下是要输血救人。</span></b></p><p><b><span>第四,才是考虑增加财政赤字到3以上,让政府花钱</span></b><span>。没有前面的输血,老套路的政府花钱,极大可能吃力不讨好——企业太虚,根本无力承接。</span></p><p><b><span>7,再强调一遍:</span></b></p><p><b><span>经济是主战场!</span></b></p><p><b><span>有经济,才有未来!</span></b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15e20574f8fb568333181d61bb200086","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139503311","content_text":"直接说重点:1,只要地方官吏放下了所谓的面子与政绩,新冠就一定会控制住。时间问题。所有可预判的问题都不可怕,包括新冠。2,现在开始,我们应该自上而下,全面操心经济。经济不可能一直停下去。企业,尤其解决了社会绝大部分就业的中小企业的承受能力是有限的。家庭的资产负债表再恶化,家庭也不会消失。但很多中小企业现金流量表与资产负债表一旦恶化超过一定时长,一口气缓不过来,这个企业就可能没有回头路了。救它们,更需要争分夺秒;3,2003年非典,四个季度GDP增速分别为11.1%、9.1%、10%和10%,非典主要影响了2季度GDP增速约1.5个百分点。全年看,受影响最大的第三产业增加值减慢0.8个百分点。当年第三产业占GDP比重为32%,也即非典大致影响当年GDP增速0.3—0.5个百分点,并不算大。绝大多数人正是依据SARS的经验来判断新冠对经济的影响,但这会带来重大误判与误导;4,2003年,中国经济还是一个睡凉席都不感冒的二十岁小伙。彼时GDP总量仅11.7万亿,2019年已是99万亿。而且,彼时最易受病毒冲击的三产规模不大,其增加值占GDP比重仅为32%,三分之一不到。但同样的数据,2019年已经达到54%,超过一半——仅按这个数据,新冠就可以轻松拉低全年GDP一个点。更关键的是,2003年中国刚加入WTO不久,正在全面享受融入全球分工与市场的红利——这是中国经济史上唯一可以与1979年中美建交并改革开放相提并论的重大拐点性事件,同时中国自身经济也正处在重化工业化、城镇化和人口红利消费升级的自我强化上升阶段,内外的修复能力与上升动能都堪称充足。但现如今的经济身体素质,早已今非昔比。具体数据我不展开了,在我过去的分析里很详尽;5,还有一个巨大的黑天鹅变量,多数人都还没有纳入考量模型。世卫组织(WHO)将于近日召开紧急会议,以确定是否把中国新冠纳入“国际关注的突发公共卫生事件\" ——用普通话粗暴翻译,就是是否把中国纳入疫区,而考量的核心因素,就是病毒持续人传人的能力。事实上,柳叶刀确定的新冠病毒R值(平均每个病毒患者(携带者)要传染的人数)为2.90——3.1,远超非典1.77和1.85的R值。纳入公共卫生事件,意味着如果没有大规模的应对行动,疫情将无法被妥善控制 。这个纳入是一把双刃剑,一方面有助于全世界高度重视疫情防控,疫区国家也能得到更多支援,但另一方面,世界其他国家大概率会对疫区实行旅行和贸易限制,形同实际意义上的经济制裁。这对疫区经济是不可承受之重。过去十年WHO宣布过五起 纳入,最近一次是去年七月针对刚果(金)的埃博拉疫情,该疫情超过2500例感染。6,回到我文首说的,新冠并不可怕,现在我们自上而下,应该开始全方位操心经济,行动越快越好。乱世重典,现在小修小补已于事无补。我的建议是:首先,动用所有官方力量与国际资源,绝对不能让WHO将新冠纳入公共卫生事件,绝对不能;其次,捆住地方政府的手,缩减和砍削所有基建开支,将钱通过退税和补贴的方式,直接返还给企业与个人,以最大程度修复家庭和企业的资产负债表,增加民间投资与消费信心;第三,才是大规模减税。税收返还是即期的,减税是未来,于当下,助力不大。当下是要输血救人。第四,才是考虑增加财政赤字到3以上,让政府花钱。没有前面的输血,老套路的政府花钱,极大可能吃力不讨好——企业太虚,根本无力承接。7,再强调一遍:经济是主战场!有经济,才有未来!","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}