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猿人
2020-09-09
用民科反对民科,真魔幻!一点干货都没有
抱歉,原内容已删除
猿人
2020-09-09
**不通的文章
美联储头上的阴谋论到底是不是真的?
猿人
2020-05-20
$瑞幸咖啡(LK)$
爽歪歪[财迷]
猿人
2020-04-21
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
现在只差破产新闻了,来一个大的指数立马死给你看!
猿人
2020-04-21
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
如果基本面继续恶化,川普强行开工的可能性在增加。
猿人
2020-04-07
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
做空英镑爽死了,英国果然是最掉链子的。
猿人
2020-04-06
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
我还是选择看空美股,但时间与位置现在不是最佳。等待机会来临!
猿人
2020-04-06
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
现在做单难度高,消息面,政策面还有疫情发展让市场走势不可预测!
猿人
2020-03-27
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
震荡市
猿人
2020-03-27
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
关注南半球与热带地区的疫情,这是美国“夏日计划”的最大变量!
猿人
2020-03-16
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
六个交易日熔断三次,壮观!
猿人
2020-03-16
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
踩踏开始!
猿人
2020-03-12
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
今天交易员可以下个早班去开个party!
猿人
2020-03-12
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
继续
猿人
2020-03-12
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
Make America Great Again!
猿人
2020-03-10
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
通胀预期变通缩预期,变化无常
猿人
2020-03-10
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
空头狂欢
猿人
2020-03-09
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
美联储直接下场买股票。开个玩笑
猿人
2019-12-04
$标普500ETF(SPY)$
用客户的钱做多,自己偷偷买入看跌期权,交易员美滋滋啊
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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13:33","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美联储头上的阴谋论到底是不是真的?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169535764","media":"格隆汇","summary":"来源: 房东经济学\n你是否常常下面这些耸人听闻的说法?\n“美联储收紧货币了,要用强势美元剪全世界羊毛了。”“美联储放水了,又要靠印美元来剥削全世界了!”“美联储把金融危机转嫁给其他国家......”\n","content":"<p><span>来源: 房东经济学</span></p>\n<p><span>你是否常常下面这些耸人听闻的说法?</span></p>\n<p><b><span>“美联储收紧货币了,要用强势美元剪全世界羊毛了。”“美联储放水了,又要靠印美元来剥削全世界了!”“美联储把金融危机转嫁给其他国家......”</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美联储这下可就难办了,</span><b><span>松也是要害你,紧也是要害你,那民科们觉得美联储要怎么做才能让自己满意呢?</span></b></p>\n<p><span>下面就全方位看一看美联储的</span><span><b>地位、功能、案例、决策</b></span><span>以及我们关心的</span><span><b>道德观</b></span><span>,相信这会是具有意义的常识科普。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>一、美联储的地位和功能</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美联储即美国的央行,依据美国国会通过的1913年《联邦储备法案》而创设,以避免再度发生类似1907年的银行危机。整个系统包括联邦储备委员会、联邦公开市场委员会、联邦储备银行、三千家会员银行、及3个咨询委员会。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf7b42c190101a71a534b82da248558\"></p>\n<p><span>12家分布全美主要城市的地区性的联邦储备银行及辖区</span></p>\n<p><span>美联储的工作目标和其他国家央行是一样的,那就是</span><span><b>稳定本国经济,保护本国就业增长和控制通胀。</b></span><span>由于美国经济自身有周期性,所以美联储货币政策的宽松和紧缩主要是根据美国经济状况而定的。</span></p>\n<p><span>例如2004年美国GDP增速3.8%,通胀率达到3.3%,已经出现过热苗头,美联储在2004-2006年连续17次加息,将联邦基金利率从1%升至5.25%,后来次贷危机爆发,美国经济硬着陆,美联储又开始大幅降息并启动量化宽松。</span></p>\n<p><span>可见美联储工作的重心一直是美国经济,过热的时候收紧,过冷的时候宽松,央行工作是一项几乎需要面面俱到的系统工程,美联储没有那个心思也没有那个能力去“加息收割别国”或“印钞剥削别国”。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>二、美联储的独立性</span></b></p>\n<p><span>值得一提的是,</span><span><b>美联储是美国一个独立机构,不受联邦政府控制,</b></span><span>因此无法成为所谓“美国阴谋”的执行者,阴谋论无从谈及。</span></p>\n<p><span>作为美国的央行,美联储只是从美国国会获得权利,因</span><span><b>其决议无需获得美国总统或者立法机关的任何高层批准</b></span><span>,所以它被视为独立的央行,它不接受美国国会的拨款,其成员任期也跨越多届总统及国会任期。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然,美联储服从于美国国会的监督,后者定期观察其活动并通过法令来改变其职能。同时,美联储必须在政府建立的经济和金融政策的总体框架下工作。</span></p>\n<p><span>所以,我们在过去两年经常看到特朗普吐槽美联储主席鲍威尔,特朗普曾多次表示美国需要大幅降息至零利率,而美联储根本没把总统的话放在眼里,反而在2018年加息4次,到今年时,美国经济减速,美联储又谨慎地降息三次,每次都是最小幅度的25个基点,这让急于大幅降息的特朗普焦急又无助。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d645e18bea1ebb737746f01d113ee0ad\"></p>\n<p><span>特朗普对鲍威尔不满已久,但也只能靠发推吐槽几句</span></p>\n<p><span><b>三、美国能靠印钞剥削世界吗?</b></span></p>\n<p><span>自从布雷顿森林体系崩溃后,美元不再与黄金挂钩,</span><span><b>美元的价值仅仅在于美国联邦政府的信用。</b></span><span>目前世界上的货币几乎都是这种性质的信用货币,对应各个国家的信用。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfcc974da291bc834ed20008dd23df35\"></p>\n<p><span>2013年开始流通的新款百元美钞</span></p>\n<p><span>理论上说,如果美联储无限制印钞,必然会严重损害美元背后的信用,并导致美元贬值,购买力大幅降低,美联储不仅没有办法通过无节制印钞来剥削全世界,而且还会因为这个行为损害美元信用,严重侵蚀美国的长期利益,</span><span><b>美国人不会蠢到去做这种得不偿失的事。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>另一方面,尽管经历了很长一段时间的零利率和量化宽松,美国的货币供给整体上仍是比较理性的,截止2019年10月底,</span><span><b>美国M2(广义货币)供应量为15.24万亿美元,大约是中国的55%,</b></span><span>而中国的GDP总量只有美国的65%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>很多国家虽然表面上要“去美元化”,行动上还是对美元爱不释手。</span></b><span>这也很好理解,因为目前美元比其他货币更加适合于成为国际货币,如果现在可以用别的货币去替代美元来进行国际贸易和金融结算,并且能让我们的经济活动效率更高,那大家自然会抛弃美元。</span></p>\n<p><span>遗憾的是,中短期内我们都看不到这个可能性。各国决策者对于这一点更是心知肚明,美债也是全球公认的最安全的资产之一,目前中国持有了超过1.1万亿美元的美债,以微小差距排在日本之后,可见美元背后的信用有多高。</span></p>\n<p><span>据环球银行间金融通信协会(SWIFT)公布的最新数据显示,美元在全球支付市场中排名第一,占比超过40%,而且</span><span><b>自2011年以来,欧元的使用比例显著降低,这使得美元占全球支付的比例这些年来不但没有下降,反而还在增加,</b></span><span>而除了欧元外,其他货币和美元都有着数量级的差距。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16166abf22cada9bd16fb3549b73002b\"></p>\n<p><span>近年来美元、欧元、日元、人民币在全球支付市场中的比例(红色为美元)</span></p>\n<p><span><b>四、美国能靠货币紧缩“剪羊毛”吗?</b></span></p>\n<p><span>除了上面说到的“美联储通过宽松来剥削世界”的谎言,还有一个反向的谎言,那就是:美国靠紧缩货币来刺破其他国家资产泡沫,然后获得廉价资产,最终得到剪羊毛的效果。</span></p>\n<p><span>持这一观点的人常常以90年代的</span><span><b>亚洲金融风暴</b></span><span>来进行佐证,因为在其他周期几乎找不到美国剪羊毛的案例,亚洲金融风暴看上去相对要像一点(也仅仅是相对)。</span></p>\n<p><span>亚洲金融风暴期间,东南亚大多数国家、韩国以及中国香港都受到了极大冲击,泰铢在取消联系汇率制后一天暴贬17%,香港房价一年跌去一半,恒生指数从1997年8月高点的16820点下跌到1998年8月的6544点,我们从这些数字就足以体会这场金融风暴的惨烈程度。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fbd0cd026d5e32c43c153394a387373\"></p>\n<p><span>在亚洲金融风暴中受严重冲击的国家</span></p>\n<p><span>可是,在亚洲金融风暴发生期间,美国并不在加息周期之中,相反,美联储还小幅下调了利率,1993年3月末时的联邦基金利率为5.5%,经过三次降息到1998年11月时是4.75%。</span><span><b>我们找不到美联储通过货币政策攻击东南亚国家的证据</b></span><span>,至于包括索罗斯在内参与其中的国际资本大鳄,不过只是以盈利为目的的“个体户”,还有无数来自其他国家的对冲基金在这场风暴中下赌注。</span></p>\n<p><span>当时美国经济如日中天,这并不是靠“剪羊毛”得来的,而是依赖互联网产业带来的新一轮经济扩张,在美国经济强势的背景下,即便美联储货币政策不收紧,美元也不断攀升成为强势货币;亚洲金融风暴的发生,原因不在美国,而在这些国家自己。在风暴来临前,这些国家发生了什么呢?</span></p>\n<p><span>他们经历了“经济奇迹”,先有“四小龙”,后有“四小虎”,但在发展后期,东南亚国家的经济增长越来越依赖不断增加的资本投入,全要素生产率增长几乎停滞,</span><span><b>泰国、印尼、马来西亚、中国香港等地经济纷纷进入了泡沫状态,经济杠杆化严重,资产价格飙升。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9278ebf31217d379ea5c25204d4caca\"></p>\n<p><span>香港房价从1996至1997年短期翻倍,随后1997至1998腰斩</span></p>\n<p><span>所以,是当初这些亚洲国家的</span><span><b>体质太弱、金融周期见顶、风险积累太多</b></span><span>,最终导致出现了金融风暴,风暴的导火索仅仅是泰铢取消了联系汇率制(放弃与美元挂钩),没人逼泰国这么做,这事儿还真不能赖美国。在亚洲市场被血洗的过程中,美国的主要资金还在纳斯达克那些充满愿景的科网泡沫中爆炒,并没有通过抄底亚洲廉价资产来实现所谓的“剪羊毛”。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>五、美联储的底线</b></span></p>\n<p><span>全球金融危机爆发以来,包括美联储在内,各个主要经济体的央行都采取了宽松的货币政策,但经济增长对货币宽松的依赖就像是鸦片,很多经济体一旦沾上就很难离开。</span></p>\n<p><span>美联储曾经的零利率和量化宽松也备受争议,比如不少民科张口就来的一句话:</span><span><b>“美联储把金融危机的风险转嫁给了其他国家”</b></span><span>,但压根不解释清楚美联储究竟做了什么,也没有说风险是通过什么渠道怎样转嫁的,更不会告诉你次贷危机时标普500指数下跌近60%、全美平均房价下跌30%、无数人由于负资产而流落街头...... 没有国家能在金融危机中独善其身,危机源头的美国更是损失惨重,如果美国有这个能力转嫁风险,这些坏事也就不会发生了。</span></p>\n<p><span>金融危机爆发后,美联储做的事可以总结为两个:</span><span><b>一是降息、二是量化宽松。</b></span><span>这是针对美国经济状况指定的国内货币政策,和对外转嫁风险八杆子打不着。再退一步说,如果这样就等于是转嫁风险,我们就来横向对比一下全球各大央行操作的力度,看看谁“转嫁风险”的力度更大一些。</span></p>\n<p><span>先从利率说起,目前美国联邦基金利率几乎是所有主要发达国家中最高的,所以低利率算不上是美国输出危机的工具。美国从2015-2018年连续渐进式加息累计9次,同一时期没有第二个国家这样做,美联储加息的目的是为了给下次危机腾出更大的货币政策空间,相比日本和欧洲的破罐子破摔的零利率,</span><b>美国可能是全世界主要发达经济体中,极少数还在努力实现利率正常化的国家了。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0c97a9c03d54fd30f0591468c37e593\"></p>\n<p><span>2018年后,美联储利率(图中橙色线)已显著高于日本央行、欧洲央行、英国央行、澳洲联储以及新西兰联储的利率</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f68123dfd032a080855aea0e0086277d\"></p>\n<p><span>联邦基金有效利率 1983-2019</span></p>\n<p><span>说完利率,再谈量化宽松(QE),量化宽松并不是美联储的专利,日本早在2001-2006年为了对抗通缩就进行过QE。由于量化宽松是通过央行购债实施的,因此量化宽松的力度会清楚地显示在某一个央行的资产负债表上。</span></p>\n<p><span>金融危机后,各个主要经济体央行的资产负债表都显著扩大,以央行资产/GDP来衡量QE的强度和节奏,美国可能还是最克制的一家:在2018年末,美联储资产/美国GDP已降至20%以下,英国的这一比例为40%,日本已经超过100%。</span><span><b>如果量化宽松是“风险转嫁”的途径,那从数据看,美国显然没有占到便宜。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fede61b7168d694d2bc64fa519373a9a\"></p>\n<p><span>美联储(虚线)、日本央行(橙线)、欧洲央行(黄线)、英国央行(灰线)资产/GDP情况</span></p>\n<p><b><span>六、远离阴谋论</span></b></p>\n<p><span>经过上述的介绍,相信大家对于美联储的方方面面都有了一定了解,整体来说,美联储是一个对美国经济负责且行为得当的央行。</span><span><b>对于那些我们幻想中的阴谋,美联储既没有动机也没有能力去实施,他们自己的工作已经够忙的了。</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>阴谋论的可怕之处在于,它彻底颠倒了我们原本正常的思维方向:</b></span><span>分析一个问题,我们往往都是先收集信息,再得出结论;而</span><span><b>阴谋论让你先有结论,再围绕结论强行拼凑一些似是而非的信息。</b></span><span>阴谋论常常伴随一些无中生有的虚构信息对读者加以煽动,这的确很容易让人热血沸腾,但在沸腾的同时,也会让当事人智商打五折。</span></p>\n<p><span>美联储只是一个例子而已,互联网给了我们更多渠道了解世界,凡事多一些思考,少一份盲从,不仅可以深入了解自己感兴趣的领域,更能避免自己被人利用。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储头上的阴谋论到底是不是真的?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储头上的阴谋论到底是不是真的?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/3\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/24397cd0a72f485e9734d658c5a0841d);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">格隆汇 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2019-11-15 13:33</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>来源: 房东经济学</span></p>\n<p><span>你是否常常下面这些耸人听闻的说法?</span></p>\n<p><b><span>“美联储收紧货币了,要用强势美元剪全世界羊毛了。”“美联储放水了,又要靠印美元来剥削全世界了!”“美联储把金融危机转嫁给其他国家......”</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美联储这下可就难办了,</span><b><span>松也是要害你,紧也是要害你,那民科们觉得美联储要怎么做才能让自己满意呢?</span></b></p>\n<p><span>下面就全方位看一看美联储的</span><span><b>地位、功能、案例、决策</b></span><span>以及我们关心的</span><span><b>道德观</b></span><span>,相信这会是具有意义的常识科普。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>一、美联储的地位和功能</span></b></p>\n<p><span>美联储即美国的央行,依据美国国会通过的1913年《联邦储备法案》而创设,以避免再度发生类似1907年的银行危机。整个系统包括联邦储备委员会、联邦公开市场委员会、联邦储备银行、三千家会员银行、及3个咨询委员会。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdf7b42c190101a71a534b82da248558\"></p>\n<p><span>12家分布全美主要城市的地区性的联邦储备银行及辖区</span></p>\n<p><span>美联储的工作目标和其他国家央行是一样的,那就是</span><span><b>稳定本国经济,保护本国就业增长和控制通胀。</b></span><span>由于美国经济自身有周期性,所以美联储货币政策的宽松和紧缩主要是根据美国经济状况而定的。</span></p>\n<p><span>例如2004年美国GDP增速3.8%,通胀率达到3.3%,已经出现过热苗头,美联储在2004-2006年连续17次加息,将联邦基金利率从1%升至5.25%,后来次贷危机爆发,美国经济硬着陆,美联储又开始大幅降息并启动量化宽松。</span></p>\n<p><span>可见美联储工作的重心一直是美国经济,过热的时候收紧,过冷的时候宽松,央行工作是一项几乎需要面面俱到的系统工程,美联储没有那个心思也没有那个能力去“加息收割别国”或“印钞剥削别国”。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>二、美联储的独立性</span></b></p>\n<p><span>值得一提的是,</span><span><b>美联储是美国一个独立机构,不受联邦政府控制,</b></span><span>因此无法成为所谓“美国阴谋”的执行者,阴谋论无从谈及。</span></p>\n<p><span>作为美国的央行,美联储只是从美国国会获得权利,因</span><span><b>其决议无需获得美国总统或者立法机关的任何高层批准</b></span><span>,所以它被视为独立的央行,它不接受美国国会的拨款,其成员任期也跨越多届总统及国会任期。</span></p>\n<p><span>当然,美联储服从于美国国会的监督,后者定期观察其活动并通过法令来改变其职能。同时,美联储必须在政府建立的经济和金融政策的总体框架下工作。</span></p>\n<p><span>所以,我们在过去两年经常看到特朗普吐槽美联储主席鲍威尔,特朗普曾多次表示美国需要大幅降息至零利率,而美联储根本没把总统的话放在眼里,反而在2018年加息4次,到今年时,美国经济减速,美联储又谨慎地降息三次,每次都是最小幅度的25个基点,这让急于大幅降息的特朗普焦急又无助。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d645e18bea1ebb737746f01d113ee0ad\"></p>\n<p><span>特朗普对鲍威尔不满已久,但也只能靠发推吐槽几句</span></p>\n<p><span><b>三、美国能靠印钞剥削世界吗?</b></span></p>\n<p><span>自从布雷顿森林体系崩溃后,美元不再与黄金挂钩,</span><span><b>美元的价值仅仅在于美国联邦政府的信用。</b></span><span>目前世界上的货币几乎都是这种性质的信用货币,对应各个国家的信用。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bfcc974da291bc834ed20008dd23df35\"></p>\n<p><span>2013年开始流通的新款百元美钞</span></p>\n<p><span>理论上说,如果美联储无限制印钞,必然会严重损害美元背后的信用,并导致美元贬值,购买力大幅降低,美联储不仅没有办法通过无节制印钞来剥削全世界,而且还会因为这个行为损害美元信用,严重侵蚀美国的长期利益,</span><span><b>美国人不会蠢到去做这种得不偿失的事。</b></span></p>\n<p><span>另一方面,尽管经历了很长一段时间的零利率和量化宽松,美国的货币供给整体上仍是比较理性的,截止2019年10月底,</span><span><b>美国M2(广义货币)供应量为15.24万亿美元,大约是中国的55%,</b></span><span>而中国的GDP总量只有美国的65%。</span></p>\n<p><b><span>很多国家虽然表面上要“去美元化”,行动上还是对美元爱不释手。</span></b><span>这也很好理解,因为目前美元比其他货币更加适合于成为国际货币,如果现在可以用别的货币去替代美元来进行国际贸易和金融结算,并且能让我们的经济活动效率更高,那大家自然会抛弃美元。</span></p>\n<p><span>遗憾的是,中短期内我们都看不到这个可能性。各国决策者对于这一点更是心知肚明,美债也是全球公认的最安全的资产之一,目前中国持有了超过1.1万亿美元的美债,以微小差距排在日本之后,可见美元背后的信用有多高。</span></p>\n<p><span>据环球银行间金融通信协会(SWIFT)公布的最新数据显示,美元在全球支付市场中排名第一,占比超过40%,而且</span><span><b>自2011年以来,欧元的使用比例显著降低,这使得美元占全球支付的比例这些年来不但没有下降,反而还在增加,</b></span><span>而除了欧元外,其他货币和美元都有着数量级的差距。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16166abf22cada9bd16fb3549b73002b\"></p>\n<p><span>近年来美元、欧元、日元、人民币在全球支付市场中的比例(红色为美元)</span></p>\n<p><span><b>四、美国能靠货币紧缩“剪羊毛”吗?</b></span></p>\n<p><span>除了上面说到的“美联储通过宽松来剥削世界”的谎言,还有一个反向的谎言,那就是:美国靠紧缩货币来刺破其他国家资产泡沫,然后获得廉价资产,最终得到剪羊毛的效果。</span></p>\n<p><span>持这一观点的人常常以90年代的</span><span><b>亚洲金融风暴</b></span><span>来进行佐证,因为在其他周期几乎找不到美国剪羊毛的案例,亚洲金融风暴看上去相对要像一点(也仅仅是相对)。</span></p>\n<p><span>亚洲金融风暴期间,东南亚大多数国家、韩国以及中国香港都受到了极大冲击,泰铢在取消联系汇率制后一天暴贬17%,香港房价一年跌去一半,恒生指数从1997年8月高点的16820点下跌到1998年8月的6544点,我们从这些数字就足以体会这场金融风暴的惨烈程度。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2fbd0cd026d5e32c43c153394a387373\"></p>\n<p><span>在亚洲金融风暴中受严重冲击的国家</span></p>\n<p><span>可是,在亚洲金融风暴发生期间,美国并不在加息周期之中,相反,美联储还小幅下调了利率,1993年3月末时的联邦基金利率为5.5%,经过三次降息到1998年11月时是4.75%。</span><span><b>我们找不到美联储通过货币政策攻击东南亚国家的证据</b></span><span>,至于包括索罗斯在内参与其中的国际资本大鳄,不过只是以盈利为目的的“个体户”,还有无数来自其他国家的对冲基金在这场风暴中下赌注。</span></p>\n<p><span>当时美国经济如日中天,这并不是靠“剪羊毛”得来的,而是依赖互联网产业带来的新一轮经济扩张,在美国经济强势的背景下,即便美联储货币政策不收紧,美元也不断攀升成为强势货币;亚洲金融风暴的发生,原因不在美国,而在这些国家自己。在风暴来临前,这些国家发生了什么呢?</span></p>\n<p><span>他们经历了“经济奇迹”,先有“四小龙”,后有“四小虎”,但在发展后期,东南亚国家的经济增长越来越依赖不断增加的资本投入,全要素生产率增长几乎停滞,</span><span><b>泰国、印尼、马来西亚、中国香港等地经济纷纷进入了泡沫状态,经济杠杆化严重,资产价格飙升。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9278ebf31217d379ea5c25204d4caca\"></p>\n<p><span>香港房价从1996至1997年短期翻倍,随后1997至1998腰斩</span></p>\n<p><span>所以,是当初这些亚洲国家的</span><span><b>体质太弱、金融周期见顶、风险积累太多</b></span><span>,最终导致出现了金融风暴,风暴的导火索仅仅是泰铢取消了联系汇率制(放弃与美元挂钩),没人逼泰国这么做,这事儿还真不能赖美国。在亚洲市场被血洗的过程中,美国的主要资金还在纳斯达克那些充满愿景的科网泡沫中爆炒,并没有通过抄底亚洲廉价资产来实现所谓的“剪羊毛”。</span></p>\n<p><span><b>五、美联储的底线</b></span></p>\n<p><span>全球金融危机爆发以来,包括美联储在内,各个主要经济体的央行都采取了宽松的货币政策,但经济增长对货币宽松的依赖就像是鸦片,很多经济体一旦沾上就很难离开。</span></p>\n<p><span>美联储曾经的零利率和量化宽松也备受争议,比如不少民科张口就来的一句话:</span><span><b>“美联储把金融危机的风险转嫁给了其他国家”</b></span><span>,但压根不解释清楚美联储究竟做了什么,也没有说风险是通过什么渠道怎样转嫁的,更不会告诉你次贷危机时标普500指数下跌近60%、全美平均房价下跌30%、无数人由于负资产而流落街头...... 没有国家能在金融危机中独善其身,危机源头的美国更是损失惨重,如果美国有这个能力转嫁风险,这些坏事也就不会发生了。</span></p>\n<p><span>金融危机爆发后,美联储做的事可以总结为两个:</span><span><b>一是降息、二是量化宽松。</b></span><span>这是针对美国经济状况指定的国内货币政策,和对外转嫁风险八杆子打不着。再退一步说,如果这样就等于是转嫁风险,我们就来横向对比一下全球各大央行操作的力度,看看谁“转嫁风险”的力度更大一些。</span></p>\n<p><span>先从利率说起,目前美国联邦基金利率几乎是所有主要发达国家中最高的,所以低利率算不上是美国输出危机的工具。美国从2015-2018年连续渐进式加息累计9次,同一时期没有第二个国家这样做,美联储加息的目的是为了给下次危机腾出更大的货币政策空间,相比日本和欧洲的破罐子破摔的零利率,</span><b>美国可能是全世界主要发达经济体中,极少数还在努力实现利率正常化的国家了。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0c97a9c03d54fd30f0591468c37e593\"></p>\n<p><span>2018年后,美联储利率(图中橙色线)已显著高于日本央行、欧洲央行、英国央行、澳洲联储以及新西兰联储的利率</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f68123dfd032a080855aea0e0086277d\"></p>\n<p><span>联邦基金有效利率 1983-2019</span></p>\n<p><span>说完利率,再谈量化宽松(QE),量化宽松并不是美联储的专利,日本早在2001-2006年为了对抗通缩就进行过QE。由于量化宽松是通过央行购债实施的,因此量化宽松的力度会清楚地显示在某一个央行的资产负债表上。</span></p>\n<p><span>金融危机后,各个主要经济体央行的资产负债表都显著扩大,以央行资产/GDP来衡量QE的强度和节奏,美国可能还是最克制的一家:在2018年末,美联储资产/美国GDP已降至20%以下,英国的这一比例为40%,日本已经超过100%。</span><span><b>如果量化宽松是“风险转嫁”的途径,那从数据看,美国显然没有占到便宜。</b></span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fede61b7168d694d2bc64fa519373a9a\"></p>\n<p><span>美联储(虚线)、日本央行(橙线)、欧洲央行(黄线)、英国央行(灰线)资产/GDP情况</span></p>\n<p><b><span>六、远离阴谋论</span></b></p>\n<p><span>经过上述的介绍,相信大家对于美联储的方方面面都有了一定了解,整体来说,美联储是一个对美国经济负责且行为得当的央行。</span><span><b>对于那些我们幻想中的阴谋,美联储既没有动机也没有能力去实施,他们自己的工作已经够忙的了。</b></span></p>\n<p><span><b>阴谋论的可怕之处在于,它彻底颠倒了我们原本正常的思维方向:</b></span><span>分析一个问题,我们往往都是先收集信息,再得出结论;而</span><span><b>阴谋论让你先有结论,再围绕结论强行拼凑一些似是而非的信息。</b></span><span>阴谋论常常伴随一些无中生有的虚构信息对读者加以煽动,这的确很容易让人热血沸腾,但在沸腾的同时,也会让当事人智商打五折。</span></p>\n<p><span>美联储只是一个例子而已,互联网给了我们更多渠道了解世界,凡事多一些思考,少一份盲从,不仅可以深入了解自己感兴趣的领域,更能避免自己被人利用。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f9e9a265cb0e7e8cb195039b2fe24a4","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169535764","content_text":"来源: 房东经济学\n你是否常常下面这些耸人听闻的说法?\n“美联储收紧货币了,要用强势美元剪全世界羊毛了。”“美联储放水了,又要靠印美元来剥削全世界了!”“美联储把金融危机转嫁给其他国家......”\n美联储这下可就难办了,松也是要害你,紧也是要害你,那民科们觉得美联储要怎么做才能让自己满意呢?\n下面就全方位看一看美联储的地位、功能、案例、决策以及我们关心的道德观,相信这会是具有意义的常识科普。\n一、美联储的地位和功能\n美联储即美国的央行,依据美国国会通过的1913年《联邦储备法案》而创设,以避免再度发生类似1907年的银行危机。整个系统包括联邦储备委员会、联邦公开市场委员会、联邦储备银行、三千家会员银行、及3个咨询委员会。\n\n12家分布全美主要城市的地区性的联邦储备银行及辖区\n美联储的工作目标和其他国家央行是一样的,那就是稳定本国经济,保护本国就业增长和控制通胀。由于美国经济自身有周期性,所以美联储货币政策的宽松和紧缩主要是根据美国经济状况而定的。\n例如2004年美国GDP增速3.8%,通胀率达到3.3%,已经出现过热苗头,美联储在2004-2006年连续17次加息,将联邦基金利率从1%升至5.25%,后来次贷危机爆发,美国经济硬着陆,美联储又开始大幅降息并启动量化宽松。\n可见美联储工作的重心一直是美国经济,过热的时候收紧,过冷的时候宽松,央行工作是一项几乎需要面面俱到的系统工程,美联储没有那个心思也没有那个能力去“加息收割别国”或“印钞剥削别国”。\n二、美联储的独立性\n值得一提的是,美联储是美国一个独立机构,不受联邦政府控制,因此无法成为所谓“美国阴谋”的执行者,阴谋论无从谈及。\n作为美国的央行,美联储只是从美国国会获得权利,因其决议无需获得美国总统或者立法机关的任何高层批准,所以它被视为独立的央行,它不接受美国国会的拨款,其成员任期也跨越多届总统及国会任期。\n当然,美联储服从于美国国会的监督,后者定期观察其活动并通过法令来改变其职能。同时,美联储必须在政府建立的经济和金融政策的总体框架下工作。\n所以,我们在过去两年经常看到特朗普吐槽美联储主席鲍威尔,特朗普曾多次表示美国需要大幅降息至零利率,而美联储根本没把总统的话放在眼里,反而在2018年加息4次,到今年时,美国经济减速,美联储又谨慎地降息三次,每次都是最小幅度的25个基点,这让急于大幅降息的特朗普焦急又无助。\n\n特朗普对鲍威尔不满已久,但也只能靠发推吐槽几句\n三、美国能靠印钞剥削世界吗?\n自从布雷顿森林体系崩溃后,美元不再与黄金挂钩,美元的价值仅仅在于美国联邦政府的信用。目前世界上的货币几乎都是这种性质的信用货币,对应各个国家的信用。\n\n2013年开始流通的新款百元美钞\n理论上说,如果美联储无限制印钞,必然会严重损害美元背后的信用,并导致美元贬值,购买力大幅降低,美联储不仅没有办法通过无节制印钞来剥削全世界,而且还会因为这个行为损害美元信用,严重侵蚀美国的长期利益,美国人不会蠢到去做这种得不偿失的事。\n另一方面,尽管经历了很长一段时间的零利率和量化宽松,美国的货币供给整体上仍是比较理性的,截止2019年10月底,美国M2(广义货币)供应量为15.24万亿美元,大约是中国的55%,而中国的GDP总量只有美国的65%。\n很多国家虽然表面上要“去美元化”,行动上还是对美元爱不释手。这也很好理解,因为目前美元比其他货币更加适合于成为国际货币,如果现在可以用别的货币去替代美元来进行国际贸易和金融结算,并且能让我们的经济活动效率更高,那大家自然会抛弃美元。\n遗憾的是,中短期内我们都看不到这个可能性。各国决策者对于这一点更是心知肚明,美债也是全球公认的最安全的资产之一,目前中国持有了超过1.1万亿美元的美债,以微小差距排在日本之后,可见美元背后的信用有多高。\n据环球银行间金融通信协会(SWIFT)公布的最新数据显示,美元在全球支付市场中排名第一,占比超过40%,而且自2011年以来,欧元的使用比例显著降低,这使得美元占全球支付的比例这些年来不但没有下降,反而还在增加,而除了欧元外,其他货币和美元都有着数量级的差距。\n\n近年来美元、欧元、日元、人民币在全球支付市场中的比例(红色为美元)\n四、美国能靠货币紧缩“剪羊毛”吗?\n除了上面说到的“美联储通过宽松来剥削世界”的谎言,还有一个反向的谎言,那就是:美国靠紧缩货币来刺破其他国家资产泡沫,然后获得廉价资产,最终得到剪羊毛的效果。\n持这一观点的人常常以90年代的亚洲金融风暴来进行佐证,因为在其他周期几乎找不到美国剪羊毛的案例,亚洲金融风暴看上去相对要像一点(也仅仅是相对)。\n亚洲金融风暴期间,东南亚大多数国家、韩国以及中国香港都受到了极大冲击,泰铢在取消联系汇率制后一天暴贬17%,香港房价一年跌去一半,恒生指数从1997年8月高点的16820点下跌到1998年8月的6544点,我们从这些数字就足以体会这场金融风暴的惨烈程度。\n\n在亚洲金融风暴中受严重冲击的国家\n可是,在亚洲金融风暴发生期间,美国并不在加息周期之中,相反,美联储还小幅下调了利率,1993年3月末时的联邦基金利率为5.5%,经过三次降息到1998年11月时是4.75%。我们找不到美联储通过货币政策攻击东南亚国家的证据,至于包括索罗斯在内参与其中的国际资本大鳄,不过只是以盈利为目的的“个体户”,还有无数来自其他国家的对冲基金在这场风暴中下赌注。\n当时美国经济如日中天,这并不是靠“剪羊毛”得来的,而是依赖互联网产业带来的新一轮经济扩张,在美国经济强势的背景下,即便美联储货币政策不收紧,美元也不断攀升成为强势货币;亚洲金融风暴的发生,原因不在美国,而在这些国家自己。在风暴来临前,这些国家发生了什么呢?\n他们经历了“经济奇迹”,先有“四小龙”,后有“四小虎”,但在发展后期,东南亚国家的经济增长越来越依赖不断增加的资本投入,全要素生产率增长几乎停滞,泰国、印尼、马来西亚、中国香港等地经济纷纷进入了泡沫状态,经济杠杆化严重,资产价格飙升。\n\n香港房价从1996至1997年短期翻倍,随后1997至1998腰斩\n所以,是当初这些亚洲国家的体质太弱、金融周期见顶、风险积累太多,最终导致出现了金融风暴,风暴的导火索仅仅是泰铢取消了联系汇率制(放弃与美元挂钩),没人逼泰国这么做,这事儿还真不能赖美国。在亚洲市场被血洗的过程中,美国的主要资金还在纳斯达克那些充满愿景的科网泡沫中爆炒,并没有通过抄底亚洲廉价资产来实现所谓的“剪羊毛”。\n五、美联储的底线\n全球金融危机爆发以来,包括美联储在内,各个主要经济体的央行都采取了宽松的货币政策,但经济增长对货币宽松的依赖就像是鸦片,很多经济体一旦沾上就很难离开。\n美联储曾经的零利率和量化宽松也备受争议,比如不少民科张口就来的一句话:“美联储把金融危机的风险转嫁给了其他国家”,但压根不解释清楚美联储究竟做了什么,也没有说风险是通过什么渠道怎样转嫁的,更不会告诉你次贷危机时标普500指数下跌近60%、全美平均房价下跌30%、无数人由于负资产而流落街头...... 没有国家能在金融危机中独善其身,危机源头的美国更是损失惨重,如果美国有这个能力转嫁风险,这些坏事也就不会发生了。\n金融危机爆发后,美联储做的事可以总结为两个:一是降息、二是量化宽松。这是针对美国经济状况指定的国内货币政策,和对外转嫁风险八杆子打不着。再退一步说,如果这样就等于是转嫁风险,我们就来横向对比一下全球各大央行操作的力度,看看谁“转嫁风险”的力度更大一些。\n先从利率说起,目前美国联邦基金利率几乎是所有主要发达国家中最高的,所以低利率算不上是美国输出危机的工具。美国从2015-2018年连续渐进式加息累计9次,同一时期没有第二个国家这样做,美联储加息的目的是为了给下次危机腾出更大的货币政策空间,相比日本和欧洲的破罐子破摔的零利率,美国可能是全世界主要发达经济体中,极少数还在努力实现利率正常化的国家了。\n\n2018年后,美联储利率(图中橙色线)已显著高于日本央行、欧洲央行、英国央行、澳洲联储以及新西兰联储的利率\n\n联邦基金有效利率 1983-2019\n说完利率,再谈量化宽松(QE),量化宽松并不是美联储的专利,日本早在2001-2006年为了对抗通缩就进行过QE。由于量化宽松是通过央行购债实施的,因此量化宽松的力度会清楚地显示在某一个央行的资产负债表上。\n金融危机后,各个主要经济体央行的资产负债表都显著扩大,以央行资产/GDP来衡量QE的强度和节奏,美国可能还是最克制的一家:在2018年末,美联储资产/美国GDP已降至20%以下,英国的这一比例为40%,日本已经超过100%。如果量化宽松是“风险转嫁”的途径,那从数据看,美国显然没有占到便宜。\n\n美联储(虚线)、日本央行(橙线)、欧洲央行(黄线)、英国央行(灰线)资产/GDP情况\n六、远离阴谋论\n经过上述的介绍,相信大家对于美联储的方方面面都有了一定了解,整体来说,美联储是一个对美国经济负责且行为得当的央行。对于那些我们幻想中的阴谋,美联储既没有动机也没有能力去实施,他们自己的工作已经够忙的了。\n阴谋论的可怕之处在于,它彻底颠倒了我们原本正常的思维方向:分析一个问题,我们往往都是先收集信息,再得出结论;而阴谋论让你先有结论,再围绕结论强行拼凑一些似是而非的信息。阴谋论常常伴随一些无中生有的虚构信息对读者加以煽动,这的确很容易让人热血沸腾,但在沸腾的同时,也会让当事人智商打五折。\n美联储只是一个例子而已,互联网给了我们更多渠道了解世界,凡事多一些思考,少一份盲从,不仅可以深入了解自己感兴趣的领域,更能避免自己被人利用。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":959571052,"gmtCreate":1589975209376,"gmtModify":1704191327714,"author":{"id":"3502079875554137","authorId":"3502079875554137","name":"猿人","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502079875554137","authorIdStr":"3502079875554137"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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