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黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2020-04-03
快餐吃的太快,噎死了
瑞幸咖啡“自爆”22亿造假 商业模式再遭质疑
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2020-03-03
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
美股暴力反弹后,What’s next ?
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-06-19
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 老虎🐯加油哦,看好你。懂你的都知道你要起飞了哦
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-06-18
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 空起老虎🐯,空起老虎🐯
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-06-10
$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 刚才跌,见好就收了,结果。。。
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-06-10
$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$继续加油,可惜是模拟账户,眼馋啊
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-29
$联邦快递(FDX)$ 真是没天理
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-29
$联邦快递(FDX)$ 信誉这么差的垃圾公司,股票才跌这点?要在大A股绝对连着几个跌停
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-21
$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 唉,买早了,可惜呀
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-18
$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 这么多人看空的时候就应该是买的时候。而且还有机构做空消息,明显的钓鱼。让你做空,实际是把你们埋了的打算
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-17
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 感谢自己昨晚临收盘割肉了,不然今天连自己姓啥的都不知道了
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-17
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 感谢自己昨晚临收盘割肉了,不然今天连自己姓啥的都不知道了
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-17
$英伟达(NVDA)$ 为啥盘后这么活跃啊?
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-17
$Canopy Growth Corporation(CGC)$ 静等44.46
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-17
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 真心不想用你了,太伤心了
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-17
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 这是?
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-16
$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 不明白为啥老虎跌的这么惨?我们用的不也挺好吗?这都让我担心用老虎的安全性了。求虎妞们出来解释一下
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-07
$Adient PLC(ADNT)$ 为啥盘前大跌啊?
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-06
$慧俪轻体(WW)$ 哭死在厕所,在最底点卖出了[捂脸][捂脸][捂脸]
黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好
2019-05-01
$思科(CSCO)$ 个人感觉每日85%的股票前一个小时到一个半小时之间,一天的行情走势基本就走完了。
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00:47","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"瑞幸咖啡“自爆”22亿造假 商业模式再遭质疑","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2024499206","media":"中国经营网","summary":"本报记者 许礼清 李向磊北京报道 4月2日,瑞幸咖啡五次熔断,股价下跌73.74%,此前公司自认数据造假。瑞幸咖啡以这样的方式停下了狂奔的脚步。 瑞幸咖啡“自爆”称,公司调查显示,COO及其部分下","content":"<html><body><p> 本报记者 许礼清 李向磊北京报道</p><p> 4月2日,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LK\">瑞幸咖啡</a>五次熔断,股价下跌73.74%,此前公司自认数据造假。瑞幸咖啡以这样的方式停下了狂奔的脚步。</p><p> 瑞幸咖啡“自爆”称,公司调查显示,COO及其部分下属员工从2019年第二季度起从事某些不正当行为,与伪造交易相关的销售额约为22亿元。而在两个月前,瑞幸咖啡曾否认关于其数据造假的做空报告。</p><p> 回顾瑞幸咖啡的发展历程,短短一年时间开出2000家店,2019年完成了4500家店的目标,达到4507家自营门店。烧钱速度也肉眼可见,2019年第三季度,瑞幸咖啡净亏损5.3亿元。2019年5月登陆美股之后,一度成为资本神话、公众眼中的明星企业。但此次黑天鹅事件,给其前景带来了很大的不确定性。</p><p> 《中国经营报》记者就相关问题联系瑞幸咖啡创始人钱治亚及营销中心公关总监,但电话一直未接通。</p><p> 香颂资本执行董事沈萌告诉记者:“造假在美国资本市场是很严重的,未来集体诉讼是跑不掉的,甚至不排除引入刑事调查,以及强制退市或判决破产,之前的安然就是前车之鉴。”</p><p> <strong>黑天鹅事件</strong></p><p> 4月2日晚间,瑞幸咖啡向美国证券交易委员会提交的一份公告称,公司在对截至2019年12月31日财年的合并财务报表进行审计时发现问题,由董事会成立特别委员会,进行内部调查。</p><p> 根据调查的初步结果显示,从2019年的第二季度开始,公司首席运营官(COO)兼董事刘剑以及向他报告的几名员工出现不当行为,包括捏造某些交易。特别委员会建议采取一些临时补救措施,包括暂停刘剑和其他相关员工的职务,以及中止与已确定的虚假交易涉及方的合同和交易。</p><p> 鸿门资本创始人庄帅认为,瑞幸咖啡之所以出现造假,因为它不能做好市场,对市场的判断是错误的,从而根本达不到预期的业绩,其本质是想获取持续的资金。</p><p> 清华大学快营销研究员孙巍认为:“商业逐利,无可厚非,但不能破了商业诚信的底线,这是生意和交易的基础。显然,瑞幸咖啡的诚信机制有了问题。”</p><p> 同时,据外媒消息,美国已有多家律所对瑞幸咖啡提起集体诉讼,控告瑞幸咖啡作出虚假和误导性陈述,违反美国证券法。目前,该项集体诉讼已于2月13日在纽约南区地方法院立案。</p><p> 由于该事件,瑞幸咖啡盘前跌幅一度超过84%,每股由26.2美元降至每股4.16美元。截至记者发稿,五次熔断,市值17.37亿美元。</p><p> 据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经消息,瑞幸就涉嫌造假一事在内部发文称,公司对此次事件发生表示震惊,目前相关当事人已停职且其负责工作已安排其他管理者接任,并将尽力减少此次事件的负面影响。</p><p> <strong>曾否认造假</strong></p><p> 实际上,在两个月之前,瑞幸咖啡方面还曾否认过浑水对其盈利数据造假的做空报告。</p><p> 浑水的报告中,直指瑞幸咖啡自2019年第三季度以来存在造假行为。做空报告认为,瑞幸咖啡夸大了门店商品的销售数量,将第三季度和第四季度,每店每日的商品销量至少分别夸大了69%和88%。报告中强调,瑞幸咖啡的订单量、销量、价格方面存在造假行为,而这意味着报告的核心论点是瑞幸咖啡的单店利润存在造假行为。根据瑞幸咖啡公布的数据,16元的单杯价格和单店日平均448杯的销量可以使得单店利润率接近30%。但如果按照报告所指出的数据模型来看,单店的经营将亏损达28%。</p><p> 按照报告中的逻辑,瑞幸咖啡的门店处于亏损状态,但为了在财务上制造出盈利的假象,因而夸大市场营销的费用以遮掩。在2019年第三季度,瑞幸咖啡计划在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002027\">分众传媒</a>(主营电梯、室外电子屏幕等广告业务)的投放为3.8亿元。根据报告中第三方的统计数据显示,在2019年5月之前,瑞幸咖啡一直是分众传媒最大的客户。但从6月起,根据瑞幸咖啡在分众传媒的投放迅速缩减,已不在前10名客户的位置中,实际支出仅为0.46亿元。</p><p> 做空报告认为,正是在广告投放中虚报的3.3亿元,弥补了单店亏损所造成的整体亏损,造成了单店盈利的假象。</p><p> 而瑞幸咖啡方面曾全盘否认这些。并且,其强调了自身的商业逻辑:“凭借我们颠覆性的新零售模式、多元化的产品组合和强大的财务状况,瑞幸咖啡将继续拓展夯实业务,为客户提供卓越的价值主张,并长期为股东提供可持续的价值。”</p><p> <strong>回溯瑞幸模式</strong></p><p> 2018年初,瑞幸咖啡在神州专车总部成立。从创始人钱治亚抛出10亿元教育市场,到对标<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SBUX\">星巴克</a>,再到后来的疯狂扩张、纳斯达克上市,瑞幸咖啡一度书写出了资本神话。但如今回溯瑞幸咖啡的成长历程,其始终没有解决最初的问题。</p><p> 孙巍告诉记者:“资本压力驱动最终干扰了瑞幸咖啡正常的经营逻辑,无论开店增长、产品扩张,都是为了匹配资本逻辑,而非消费逻辑。”</p><p> 瑞幸咖啡的目标真的是星巴克吗?业内似乎一直没有统一的看法。</p><p> 从模式上看,瑞幸咖啡提出“无限场景”理念,开出的都是小店,主打以用户自提和外卖为主的消费场景;而星巴克核心经营理念是“第三空间”,就是区别于工作空间和生活空间之外的休闲消费、社交的空间,星巴克的消费以“堂食”为主。</p><p> 对此庄帅表示:“在线上,瑞幸咖啡请的代言人、广告的设计、公众号的页面、公关的文章几乎全部是‘星巴克式’的格调和风格。但线下更多是‘麦咖啡’和‘快餐咖啡’的形象,仅有少部分‘高大上’的旗舰店和优享店。”</p><p> 沈萌也认为:“数据咖啡重点是数据,而不是咖啡,咖啡是收集数据的渠道,所以瑞幸咖啡的对手应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a>、阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>,但它还是选择了星巴克,而星巴克卖咖啡是卖咖啡文化,而不仅仅是咖啡本身。”</p><p> 2019年底,瑞幸咖啡实现4500家门店的目标,也实现了“超越星巴克”的目标,成为国内市场规模最大的咖啡品牌。</p><p> 而瑞幸咖啡的疯狂开店,显然已经形成了重资产模式。每开一家店,就意味着要投入房租、设备、人员成本。</p><p> “瑞幸咖啡开设的门店,分为旗舰店、优享点、快取店、外卖厨房店,没有做到标准化和一致性。这样看来,瑞幸咖啡单纯比较开店数量确实只能算是公关传播手段。毕竟快取店、悠享店和外卖厨房店选址和装修更容易、谈判难度低、租金也更便宜。一方面利于快速开店,然后在线上以量对标行业巨头星巴克进行造势;另一方面则提升外卖配送的效率。”庄帅认为。</p><p> 同时庄帅告诉记者:“根据我实地考察多家实体店,以及近一年来的观察研究发现:瑞幸咖啡的快速发展很快会因为违背了零售电商行业的‘一致性原理’出现系统性经营风险,从而付出相应的代价。系统性崩盘的风险则会在三五年的时间逐渐显现,使得企业慢慢走向衰退。但从现在的情况来看,有可能美国的监管机构直接将它破产,没有未来可言。”</p><p> 而靠广告轰炸、线上拼团、精准营销、外卖切入等手段确实快速带来了流量,然后通过运营把流量转化到线下自提,但是这些高昂的获客成本从其亏损中就可窥得一二。</p><p> 沈萌认为:“瑞幸的补贴是缺少长期维持的基础,任何商业性行为都必须具备可持续性,最终实现自我造血,前期门店的扩张如果是进行数据积累,那么就有价值,如果只是门店,那么价值就会大打折扣,让其背负沉重的负担。它的核心就是烧钱圈用户,但是这些用户都属于价格敏感性,一旦价格优势不复存在,就会离开,而瑞幸咖啡并没有形成价格以外的黏性。”</p><p> (编辑:刘旺 校对:颜京宁)</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n瑞幸咖啡“自爆”22亿造假 商业模式再遭质疑\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-03 00:47 北京时间 <a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2020-04-03/doc-iimxyqwa4804974.shtml><strong>中国经营网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>本报记者 许礼清 李向磊北京报道 4月2日,瑞幸咖啡五次熔断,股价下跌73.74%,此前公司自认数据造假。瑞幸咖啡以这样的方式停下了狂奔的脚步。 瑞幸咖啡“自爆”称,公司调查显示,COO及其部分下属员工从2019年第二季度起从事某些不正当行为,与伪造交易相关的销售额约为22亿元。而在两个月前,瑞幸咖啡曾否认关于其数据造假的做空报告。 回顾瑞幸咖啡的发展历程,短短一年时间开出2000家店,...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2020-04-03/doc-iimxyqwa4804974.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7123c00c718afd2209048e9d94f04a1","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://tech.sina.com.cn/i/2020-04-03/doc-iimxyqwa4804974.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2024499206","content_text":"本报记者 许礼清 李向磊北京报道 4月2日,瑞幸咖啡五次熔断,股价下跌73.74%,此前公司自认数据造假。瑞幸咖啡以这样的方式停下了狂奔的脚步。 瑞幸咖啡“自爆”称,公司调查显示,COO及其部分下属员工从2019年第二季度起从事某些不正当行为,与伪造交易相关的销售额约为22亿元。而在两个月前,瑞幸咖啡曾否认关于其数据造假的做空报告。 回顾瑞幸咖啡的发展历程,短短一年时间开出2000家店,2019年完成了4500家店的目标,达到4507家自营门店。烧钱速度也肉眼可见,2019年第三季度,瑞幸咖啡净亏损5.3亿元。2019年5月登陆美股之后,一度成为资本神话、公众眼中的明星企业。但此次黑天鹅事件,给其前景带来了很大的不确定性。 《中国经营报》记者就相关问题联系瑞幸咖啡创始人钱治亚及营销中心公关总监,但电话一直未接通。 香颂资本执行董事沈萌告诉记者:“造假在美国资本市场是很严重的,未来集体诉讼是跑不掉的,甚至不排除引入刑事调查,以及强制退市或判决破产,之前的安然就是前车之鉴。” 黑天鹅事件 4月2日晚间,瑞幸咖啡向美国证券交易委员会提交的一份公告称,公司在对截至2019年12月31日财年的合并财务报表进行审计时发现问题,由董事会成立特别委员会,进行内部调查。 根据调查的初步结果显示,从2019年的第二季度开始,公司首席运营官(COO)兼董事刘剑以及向他报告的几名员工出现不当行为,包括捏造某些交易。特别委员会建议采取一些临时补救措施,包括暂停刘剑和其他相关员工的职务,以及中止与已确定的虚假交易涉及方的合同和交易。 鸿门资本创始人庄帅认为,瑞幸咖啡之所以出现造假,因为它不能做好市场,对市场的判断是错误的,从而根本达不到预期的业绩,其本质是想获取持续的资金。 清华大学快营销研究员孙巍认为:“商业逐利,无可厚非,但不能破了商业诚信的底线,这是生意和交易的基础。显然,瑞幸咖啡的诚信机制有了问题。” 同时,据外媒消息,美国已有多家律所对瑞幸咖啡提起集体诉讼,控告瑞幸咖啡作出虚假和误导性陈述,违反美国证券法。目前,该项集体诉讼已于2月13日在纽约南区地方法院立案。 由于该事件,瑞幸咖啡盘前跌幅一度超过84%,每股由26.2美元降至每股4.16美元。截至记者发稿,五次熔断,市值17.37亿美元。 据新浪财经消息,瑞幸就涉嫌造假一事在内部发文称,公司对此次事件发生表示震惊,目前相关当事人已停职且其负责工作已安排其他管理者接任,并将尽力减少此次事件的负面影响。 曾否认造假 实际上,在两个月之前,瑞幸咖啡方面还曾否认过浑水对其盈利数据造假的做空报告。 浑水的报告中,直指瑞幸咖啡自2019年第三季度以来存在造假行为。做空报告认为,瑞幸咖啡夸大了门店商品的销售数量,将第三季度和第四季度,每店每日的商品销量至少分别夸大了69%和88%。报告中强调,瑞幸咖啡的订单量、销量、价格方面存在造假行为,而这意味着报告的核心论点是瑞幸咖啡的单店利润存在造假行为。根据瑞幸咖啡公布的数据,16元的单杯价格和单店日平均448杯的销量可以使得单店利润率接近30%。但如果按照报告所指出的数据模型来看,单店的经营将亏损达28%。 按照报告中的逻辑,瑞幸咖啡的门店处于亏损状态,但为了在财务上制造出盈利的假象,因而夸大市场营销的费用以遮掩。在2019年第三季度,瑞幸咖啡计划在分众传媒(主营电梯、室外电子屏幕等广告业务)的投放为3.8亿元。根据报告中第三方的统计数据显示,在2019年5月之前,瑞幸咖啡一直是分众传媒最大的客户。但从6月起,根据瑞幸咖啡在分众传媒的投放迅速缩减,已不在前10名客户的位置中,实际支出仅为0.46亿元。 做空报告认为,正是在广告投放中虚报的3.3亿元,弥补了单店亏损所造成的整体亏损,造成了单店盈利的假象。 而瑞幸咖啡方面曾全盘否认这些。并且,其强调了自身的商业逻辑:“凭借我们颠覆性的新零售模式、多元化的产品组合和强大的财务状况,瑞幸咖啡将继续拓展夯实业务,为客户提供卓越的价值主张,并长期为股东提供可持续的价值。” 回溯瑞幸模式 2018年初,瑞幸咖啡在神州专车总部成立。从创始人钱治亚抛出10亿元教育市场,到对标星巴克,再到后来的疯狂扩张、纳斯达克上市,瑞幸咖啡一度书写出了资本神话。但如今回溯瑞幸咖啡的成长历程,其始终没有解决最初的问题。 孙巍告诉记者:“资本压力驱动最终干扰了瑞幸咖啡正常的经营逻辑,无论开店增长、产品扩张,都是为了匹配资本逻辑,而非消费逻辑。” 瑞幸咖啡的目标真的是星巴克吗?业内似乎一直没有统一的看法。 从模式上看,瑞幸咖啡提出“无限场景”理念,开出的都是小店,主打以用户自提和外卖为主的消费场景;而星巴克核心经营理念是“第三空间”,就是区别于工作空间和生活空间之外的休闲消费、社交的空间,星巴克的消费以“堂食”为主。 对此庄帅表示:“在线上,瑞幸咖啡请的代言人、广告的设计、公众号的页面、公关的文章几乎全部是‘星巴克式’的格调和风格。但线下更多是‘麦咖啡’和‘快餐咖啡’的形象,仅有少部分‘高大上’的旗舰店和优享店。” 沈萌也认为:“数据咖啡重点是数据,而不是咖啡,咖啡是收集数据的渠道,所以瑞幸咖啡的对手应该是百度、阿里、腾讯,但它还是选择了星巴克,而星巴克卖咖啡是卖咖啡文化,而不仅仅是咖啡本身。” 2019年底,瑞幸咖啡实现4500家门店的目标,也实现了“超越星巴克”的目标,成为国内市场规模最大的咖啡品牌。 而瑞幸咖啡的疯狂开店,显然已经形成了重资产模式。每开一家店,就意味着要投入房租、设备、人员成本。 “瑞幸咖啡开设的门店,分为旗舰店、优享点、快取店、外卖厨房店,没有做到标准化和一致性。这样看来,瑞幸咖啡单纯比较开店数量确实只能算是公关传播手段。毕竟快取店、悠享店和外卖厨房店选址和装修更容易、谈判难度低、租金也更便宜。一方面利于快速开店,然后在线上以量对标行业巨头星巴克进行造势;另一方面则提升外卖配送的效率。”庄帅认为。 同时庄帅告诉记者:“根据我实地考察多家实体店,以及近一年来的观察研究发现:瑞幸咖啡的快速发展很快会因为违背了零售电商行业的‘一致性原理’出现系统性经营风险,从而付出相应的代价。系统性崩盘的风险则会在三五年的时间逐渐显现,使得企业慢慢走向衰退。但从现在的情况来看,有可能美国的监管机构直接将它破产,没有未来可言。” 而靠广告轰炸、线上拼团、精准营销、外卖切入等手段确实快速带来了流量,然后通过运营把流量转化到线下自提,但是这些高昂的获客成本从其亏损中就可窥得一二。 沈萌认为:“瑞幸的补贴是缺少长期维持的基础,任何商业性行为都必须具备可持续性,最终实现自我造血,前期门店的扩张如果是进行数据积累,那么就有价值,如果只是门店,那么价值就会大打折扣,让其背负沉重的负担。它的核心就是烧钱圈用户,但是这些用户都属于价格敏感性,一旦价格优势不复存在,就会离开,而瑞幸咖啡并没有形成价格以外的黏性。” (编辑:刘旺 校对:颜京宁)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1691,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":983699854,"gmtCreate":1583245235078,"gmtModify":1704349153519,"author":{"id":"3498077904051180","authorId":"3498077904051180","name":"黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a65ea90f5a2ec10db4f0095087b646","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498077904051180","authorIdStr":"3498077904051180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/983699854","repostId":"1186469170","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186469170","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"坚守初心,不随俗流。用一颗匠子心打造一个具有广度、深度、高度、温度的港股交流圈","home_visible":1,"media_name":"丫丫港股圈","id":"1055767104","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953"},"pubTimestamp":1583242516,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186469170?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-03-03 21:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美股暴力反弹后,What’s next ?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186469170","media":"丫丫港股圈","summary":"2月27日,全球指数纷纷跳水,道指、标普、纳指都下跌4%以上,道指狂泄1000点。纳斯达克指数单周暴跌10%,下跌幅度仅次于金融危机最恐慌时的两次急挫。其实,从2019年下半年以来,在宽松的预期下,全","content":"<p><span>2月27日,全球指数纷纷跳水,道指、标普、纳指都下跌4%以上,道指狂泄1000点。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c29ab938f113a226d895053369c60a1\" /></p><p><span>纳斯达克指数单周暴跌10%,下跌幅度仅次于金融危机最恐慌时的两次急挫。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a67b33c7281aaddbb683fa241534cfe\" /></p><p><span>其实,从2019年下半年以来,在宽松的预期下,全球指数就开启了新一轮的上涨。疫情危机从逻辑上来说,并没有影响到长期预期。</span></p><p><span>所以美联储一出来喊话,指数又迅速企稳,周一晚还创下了历史上单日反弹很多点数的纪录。被骗下车的投资者纷纷惊呼:卧槽!无情!</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62171504e01b1bbba2bc43471237fced\" /></p><p><span>但是美股是不是就这样就见底了?从公司的盈利和估值来看,现在又是不是一个很好的上车机会?</span></p><p><b><span>面对情绪起伏不定的市场先生,现在的美股市场,到底是机会还是陷阱呢?</span></b></p><p><b><span>过往调整的时间</span></b></p><p><span>股票研究,尤其是指数的走势,其实就是一个</span><span><b>不断总结过去,并期望未来会发生同样事情来让我们获利</b></span><span>的游戏。我们不妨翻开美股的历史,看看市场先生喜欢什么套路。</span></p><p><span>从历史数据来看,美股近二十年有过几次明显的回撤。</span></p><p><b><span>幅度最大的是2008年金融危机。</span></b><span>从2007年10月份顶峰计算,整个触底过程耗时1年5个月,到2009年3月份才到达底部。当时的资本市场面对着严重的流动性危机,不断有公司倒闭。纳指在这个过程中下跌了50%,不可谓不惨烈。后续花了两年时间,纳斯达克才在2011年回到2007年的峰值水平。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ba5d67a9c438a0f692720585e9e5b80\" /></p><p><b><span>接下来幅度比较大时期的还有2015年-2016年。</span></b><span>这两年中国在经历严重的股灾,同年特朗普上台。这段时期,纳斯达克有过两次10%以上的回撤,分别用了1个月和2个月时间触底。整个下挫耗时一年,然后开启了新一轮上涨,2017年,纳指上涨30%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4e24efcf46851d35b7d4fa5549c8c5f\" /></p><p><b><span>接下来还有2011年8月份的急挫,</span></b><span>纳指花了3个月时间筑底,最大回撤幅度13%。其他大大小小的回撤还有很多,比如说2018年10月-12月、2010年5-7月,都有过20%左右幅度的回撤,这些回撤都在3个月左右筑底,然后又开始新一轮上涨。</span></p><p><b><span>所以,仅仅从近二十年的指数数据来看,美股的筑底期大概在3个月左右。严重点像金融危机,修复期则可能持续一年。</span></b></p><p><span>这一次的疫情,虽然严重程度大概率不如金融危机,但是从市场先生的习惯来说,他可能还是喜欢和大家多玩一段时间。</span></p><p><b><span>估值性价比</span></b></p><p><span>光从K线数据分析,还不足以判断应该抄底还是观望,毕竟美股在上世纪70年代曾经有过10年不涨的历史。</span></p><p><span>在那十年里面,无论何时抄底,都要持有很长时间才能解套。</span></p><p><b><span>假如从估值和企业盈利的角度来看,美股现在处于一个什么样的位置呢?</span></b></p><p><span>上周,从美国大型公司具体情况看,基本所有领域的公司都出现了大幅下跌。</span></p><p><span>首先是科技类公司。苹果下跌12.68%,Facebook下跌8.43%,谷歌A类股跌9.82%,亚马逊下跌10.31%,微软下跌9.28%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ceb987434ffa336cbdb075c17791dd0\" /></p><p><span>半导体方面,AMD下跌14.66%,英伟达下跌8.11%,英特尔下跌13.71%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e42f4677cb9b926721e52178ace673c\" /></p><p><span>金融板块和消费板块也有较大幅度下跌,摩根大通下跌14.51%,宝洁下跌10.63%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217419650e17c9068005fe03db488b16\" /></p><p><span>然而在经历了急剧的下跌后,其实很多公司的估值仍然在历史的高位。</span></p><p><span>比如说苹果的市盈率,比起2018年12月份,仍然贵了不少。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2f9c25d13c1016e8fdc6a87ce722be\" /></p><p><span>而且从2016年开始,苹果的收入增速就下降到个位数级别,对估值的支撑比较弱。其股价的上涨动力一方面是因为减税带来的利润提升,另外一方面是因为市场对5G换机潮的预期带来的估值提升。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93130f672da1c18515677638fe09fb56\" /></p><p><span>除了苹果公司之外,互联网、半导体和金融的几个标杆企业,营业收入和利润也出现了不同程度的下滑。</span></p><p><span>比如说谷歌,营收和利润的增速都为近4年来最低值。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc35a192dd5ae208c5787487cbbf2159\" /></p><p><span>半导体领域的英伟达,营收和利润都从2017年以来首次转负。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45485d9148fde0f9627f2a6ecd0640b\" /></p><p><span>巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔,营业收入增速为5年来最低,营业利润增速下降到1.23%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f59ee678f96528a7c217556ea8e217e\" /></p><p><span>整体来看,企业的整体利润增速处于一个比较低的位置,但是目前标普、道指、纳指的整体市盈率,分别为24.1倍、22.5倍和35.68倍,却处于一个相对高的位置。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca08be469747d5282e46e9051ff11141\" /></p><p><b><span>所以,从估值的角度看,现在的美股依然不便宜。</span></b></p><p><b><span>预期</span></b></p><p><span>金融市场的定价,其中相当一部分是对未来的预期。</span></p><p><span>比如同样市盈率为30倍的A公司和B公司,A公司未来三年增长率是100%,B公司未来三年增长率是5%,那么B公司的估值明显要比A公司更贵。</span></p><p><b><span>目前股票市场的估值看起来并不便宜,但事实上,他们是真的不便宜吗?</span></b></p><p><span>从2008年金融危机以来,美联储分别进行了3次明显的扩表操作。</span></p><p><span>分别是2008年9月份、2010年10月份和2012年11月份。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b2d9eba6090c65d6357102a5250164\" /></p><p><span>2008年9月份,市场开始进行量化宽松后,美股从2009年3月份开始触底反弹。这一轮反弹主要是估值驱动,我们可以看到标普和纳指的估值在这段时期不断攀升,纳指最高达到50倍PE。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbae0ff7faf54721a97570c4fb0f83b\" /></p><p><b><span>2010年11月到2011年6月份是另外一次扩表,这一次美联储的资产增加了30%。</span></b></p><p><span>在扩表之前,股市就开始反弹。随着资产负债表的上升,股市也逐渐走高,纳指在2010年12月份达到42倍PE的短期新高。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c176fb64e90746ab923bd9e1b2682801\" /></p><p><span>2012年10月份到2014年9月份,美联储继续扩表60%,美股也在2011年的低位盘整后,走出了一波4年大牛市。市场估值同样是在扩表中期达到峰值。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c51aee5eefb97873cc093bcdca532d\" /></p><p><span>虽然这三个时间段,美股的估值都到达一个高位,但是站在2020年的现在回过头看,即使在当时最高点买入,现在也会有高额的回报。</span></p><p><span>结合企业盈利,我们以2009年整个纳斯达克盈利前100名的公司作为样本,跟踪他们从2009年到2016年的盈利状况,如下图所示。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dfbc813a037544069818a50f7d954a\" /></p><p><span>我们可以看到,盈利分别在2011年、2013年和2015年有较大的增长,刚好和几次扩表的时间重合。</span></p><p><b><span>也就是说,美股的每一轮牛市,基本都是在宽松的预期下,股市的估值先提升;宽松的过程,企业的盈利提升,从而消化估值;然后股市涨不动了,美联储又开始进行宽松。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8dd5f113e777d94db949947dc686b8\" /></p><p><span>就是这样一轮又一轮宽松,不断的推高资产价格,造出了美股的十年长牛。</span></p><p><span>而现在,美联储又开始降息和扩表了,聪明的投资者们,又打算配合美联储演这一出好戏,一起推高股市,一起赚钱。</span></p><p><span>但大家都明白子弹终有用完的一日,如果这次突如其来的疫情,减息太猛,利率又降到接近0的位置,后面假如再出现增长乏力的情况。</span></p><p><span>美联储这个游戏,要怎么玩下去呢?</span></p><p><b><span>风险</span></b></p><p><span>股神说过对于徫大的公司,只要合理的价格买进就可以了,我认为他所指的伟大公司就是存在护城河带来的增长确定性。言下之意,只要有足够的确定性,不要贪太便宜。</span></p><p><span>这句话也可以应用在整体美股上,先假设美股估值现在是合理略高一点,那确定性足够吗?明显地很多场外因素仍然处于不确定的阶段。</span></p><p><b><span>首先,作为这次暴跌的导火索,疫情仍然在蔓延。</span></b></p><p><span>韩国2月29日新确诊376例,累计病例达3526例;</span></p><p><span>日本国内确诊病例升至947例;</span></p><p><span>意大利新增240例,确诊病例达到1128例;</span></p><p><span>伊朗确诊593例,其中43例死亡,更可怕的是伊朗多名政要感染,团灭的节奏。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fc380ca457958974c3397b4362dd57a\" /></p><p><b><span>比起确诊人数更让人担心的是各国对待疫情的态度和执行力。</span></b></p><p><span>韩国在疫情爆发后,至今仍然没有封城,甚至有宗教人士出面,大规模组织集会对抗政府。</span></p><p><span>日本政府的态度非常不明确,为了不影响奥运会的召开,故意缓慢处理疫情,提高核酸试剂盒的检测条件,想通过降低检测数来减少确诊人数。</span></p><p><span>意大利对疫情倒是非常重视。早在1月30日第一次确诊了两例,总理孔特就当机立断宣布意大利进入"紧急状态",无奈的是后续政府马上陷入了政党内耗,迟迟无法出台防疫措施。</span></p><p><span>伊朗的局势更加严峻,由于没有能力检测,医疗设备也较落后,大部分伊朗感染人群都是病情非常严重之后才进入医院。再加上伊朗多名高官也确诊了,伊朗的情况不容乐观。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca93426a9cb5364f99e6d164d93d8e93\" /></p><p><span>还有美国本身也极不重视防疫。</span></p><p><b><span>因此,短期来看,疫情反复的可能性比较大,一旦美国疫情有坏消息,美股可再插水。</span></b></p><p><span>除了疫情影响,2020年的大选也是市场的一个不确定性。疫情前,市场预期川普连任概率大,但现在随着美国出现疫情和美股大跌,川普连任有机会被民主党桑德斯挑战,市场讨论不确定性。虽说桑德斯上台,毛利衣有机会缓和,但是他的政策却对于美国科技股巨头和其他大企业极之不利。</span></p><p><span>这也是美股今年的不确定性之一。</span></p><p><b><span>总结</span></b></p><p><span>综合目前的市场情绪、政策和潜在风险,全球股市的下跌短期还没有到反转的时候。</span></p><p><b><span>但是从长远来看,美联储肯定是会继续吹大泡沫的,未来的美股是死不了。</span></b></p><p><span>在这段不太平静的时期,股市难免波动较大,投资者看到上蹿下跳的股价时,难免会有追涨杀跌的欲望。</span></p><p><span>但是我们还是建议大家不要做T,适当的离市场远一点。</span></p><p><span>有时间的话,可以读一下公司的财报,认真的计算一下持仓公司的内在价值和安全边际。</span></p><p><span>也许梳理完你就会明白,市场先生给的是机会,还是陷阱。</span></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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}\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股暴力反弹后,What’s next ?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1055767104\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/e72e80eef358bde27914deb6b2315953);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">丫丫港股圈 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2020-03-03 21:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><span>2月27日,全球指数纷纷跳水,道指、标普、纳指都下跌4%以上,道指狂泄1000点。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c29ab938f113a226d895053369c60a1\" /></p><p><span>纳斯达克指数单周暴跌10%,下跌幅度仅次于金融危机最恐慌时的两次急挫。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a67b33c7281aaddbb683fa241534cfe\" /></p><p><span>其实,从2019年下半年以来,在宽松的预期下,全球指数就开启了新一轮的上涨。疫情危机从逻辑上来说,并没有影响到长期预期。</span></p><p><span>所以美联储一出来喊话,指数又迅速企稳,周一晚还创下了历史上单日反弹很多点数的纪录。被骗下车的投资者纷纷惊呼:卧槽!无情!</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/62171504e01b1bbba2bc43471237fced\" /></p><p><span>但是美股是不是就这样就见底了?从公司的盈利和估值来看,现在又是不是一个很好的上车机会?</span></p><p><b><span>面对情绪起伏不定的市场先生,现在的美股市场,到底是机会还是陷阱呢?</span></b></p><p><b><span>过往调整的时间</span></b></p><p><span>股票研究,尤其是指数的走势,其实就是一个</span><span><b>不断总结过去,并期望未来会发生同样事情来让我们获利</b></span><span>的游戏。我们不妨翻开美股的历史,看看市场先生喜欢什么套路。</span></p><p><span>从历史数据来看,美股近二十年有过几次明显的回撤。</span></p><p><b><span>幅度最大的是2008年金融危机。</span></b><span>从2007年10月份顶峰计算,整个触底过程耗时1年5个月,到2009年3月份才到达底部。当时的资本市场面对着严重的流动性危机,不断有公司倒闭。纳指在这个过程中下跌了50%,不可谓不惨烈。后续花了两年时间,纳斯达克才在2011年回到2007年的峰值水平。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ba5d67a9c438a0f692720585e9e5b80\" /></p><p><b><span>接下来幅度比较大时期的还有2015年-2016年。</span></b><span>这两年中国在经历严重的股灾,同年特朗普上台。这段时期,纳斯达克有过两次10%以上的回撤,分别用了1个月和2个月时间触底。整个下挫耗时一年,然后开启了新一轮上涨,2017年,纳指上涨30%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4e24efcf46851d35b7d4fa5549c8c5f\" /></p><p><b><span>接下来还有2011年8月份的急挫,</span></b><span>纳指花了3个月时间筑底,最大回撤幅度13%。其他大大小小的回撤还有很多,比如说2018年10月-12月、2010年5-7月,都有过20%左右幅度的回撤,这些回撤都在3个月左右筑底,然后又开始新一轮上涨。</span></p><p><b><span>所以,仅仅从近二十年的指数数据来看,美股的筑底期大概在3个月左右。严重点像金融危机,修复期则可能持续一年。</span></b></p><p><span>这一次的疫情,虽然严重程度大概率不如金融危机,但是从市场先生的习惯来说,他可能还是喜欢和大家多玩一段时间。</span></p><p><b><span>估值性价比</span></b></p><p><span>光从K线数据分析,还不足以判断应该抄底还是观望,毕竟美股在上世纪70年代曾经有过10年不涨的历史。</span></p><p><span>在那十年里面,无论何时抄底,都要持有很长时间才能解套。</span></p><p><b><span>假如从估值和企业盈利的角度来看,美股现在处于一个什么样的位置呢?</span></b></p><p><span>上周,从美国大型公司具体情况看,基本所有领域的公司都出现了大幅下跌。</span></p><p><span>首先是科技类公司。苹果下跌12.68%,Facebook下跌8.43%,谷歌A类股跌9.82%,亚马逊下跌10.31%,微软下跌9.28%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ceb987434ffa336cbdb075c17791dd0\" /></p><p><span>半导体方面,AMD下跌14.66%,英伟达下跌8.11%,英特尔下跌13.71%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e42f4677cb9b926721e52178ace673c\" /></p><p><span>金融板块和消费板块也有较大幅度下跌,摩根大通下跌14.51%,宝洁下跌10.63%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/217419650e17c9068005fe03db488b16\" /></p><p><span>然而在经历了急剧的下跌后,其实很多公司的估值仍然在历史的高位。</span></p><p><span>比如说苹果的市盈率,比起2018年12月份,仍然贵了不少。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2f9c25d13c1016e8fdc6a87ce722be\" /></p><p><span>而且从2016年开始,苹果的收入增速就下降到个位数级别,对估值的支撑比较弱。其股价的上涨动力一方面是因为减税带来的利润提升,另外一方面是因为市场对5G换机潮的预期带来的估值提升。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93130f672da1c18515677638fe09fb56\" /></p><p><span>除了苹果公司之外,互联网、半导体和金融的几个标杆企业,营业收入和利润也出现了不同程度的下滑。</span></p><p><span>比如说谷歌,营收和利润的增速都为近4年来最低值。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc35a192dd5ae208c5787487cbbf2159\" /></p><p><span>半导体领域的英伟达,营收和利润都从2017年以来首次转负。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d45485d9148fde0f9627f2a6ecd0640b\" /></p><p><span>巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔,营业收入增速为5年来最低,营业利润增速下降到1.23%。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f59ee678f96528a7c217556ea8e217e\" /></p><p><span>整体来看,企业的整体利润增速处于一个比较低的位置,但是目前标普、道指、纳指的整体市盈率,分别为24.1倍、22.5倍和35.68倍,却处于一个相对高的位置。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca08be469747d5282e46e9051ff11141\" /></p><p><b><span>所以,从估值的角度看,现在的美股依然不便宜。</span></b></p><p><b><span>预期</span></b></p><p><span>金融市场的定价,其中相当一部分是对未来的预期。</span></p><p><span>比如同样市盈率为30倍的A公司和B公司,A公司未来三年增长率是100%,B公司未来三年增长率是5%,那么B公司的估值明显要比A公司更贵。</span></p><p><b><span>目前股票市场的估值看起来并不便宜,但事实上,他们是真的不便宜吗?</span></b></p><p><span>从2008年金融危机以来,美联储分别进行了3次明显的扩表操作。</span></p><p><span>分别是2008年9月份、2010年10月份和2012年11月份。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65b2d9eba6090c65d6357102a5250164\" /></p><p><span>2008年9月份,市场开始进行量化宽松后,美股从2009年3月份开始触底反弹。这一轮反弹主要是估值驱动,我们可以看到标普和纳指的估值在这段时期不断攀升,纳指最高达到50倍PE。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6fbae0ff7faf54721a97570c4fb0f83b\" /></p><p><b><span>2010年11月到2011年6月份是另外一次扩表,这一次美联储的资产增加了30%。</span></b></p><p><span>在扩表之前,股市就开始反弹。随着资产负债表的上升,股市也逐渐走高,纳指在2010年12月份达到42倍PE的短期新高。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c176fb64e90746ab923bd9e1b2682801\" /></p><p><span>2012年10月份到2014年9月份,美联储继续扩表60%,美股也在2011年的低位盘整后,走出了一波4年大牛市。市场估值同样是在扩表中期达到峰值。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05c51aee5eefb97873cc093bcdca532d\" /></p><p><span>虽然这三个时间段,美股的估值都到达一个高位,但是站在2020年的现在回过头看,即使在当时最高点买入,现在也会有高额的回报。</span></p><p><span>结合企业盈利,我们以2009年整个纳斯达克盈利前100名的公司作为样本,跟踪他们从2009年到2016年的盈利状况,如下图所示。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b8dfbc813a037544069818a50f7d954a\" /></p><p><span>我们可以看到,盈利分别在2011年、2013年和2015年有较大的增长,刚好和几次扩表的时间重合。</span></p><p><b><span>也就是说,美股的每一轮牛市,基本都是在宽松的预期下,股市的估值先提升;宽松的过程,企业的盈利提升,从而消化估值;然后股市涨不动了,美联储又开始进行宽松。</span></b></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e8dd5f113e777d94db949947dc686b8\" /></p><p><span>就是这样一轮又一轮宽松,不断的推高资产价格,造出了美股的十年长牛。</span></p><p><span>而现在,美联储又开始降息和扩表了,聪明的投资者们,又打算配合美联储演这一出好戏,一起推高股市,一起赚钱。</span></p><p><span>但大家都明白子弹终有用完的一日,如果这次突如其来的疫情,减息太猛,利率又降到接近0的位置,后面假如再出现增长乏力的情况。</span></p><p><span>美联储这个游戏,要怎么玩下去呢?</span></p><p><b><span>风险</span></b></p><p><span>股神说过对于徫大的公司,只要合理的价格买进就可以了,我认为他所指的伟大公司就是存在护城河带来的增长确定性。言下之意,只要有足够的确定性,不要贪太便宜。</span></p><p><span>这句话也可以应用在整体美股上,先假设美股估值现在是合理略高一点,那确定性足够吗?明显地很多场外因素仍然处于不确定的阶段。</span></p><p><b><span>首先,作为这次暴跌的导火索,疫情仍然在蔓延。</span></b></p><p><span>韩国2月29日新确诊376例,累计病例达3526例;</span></p><p><span>日本国内确诊病例升至947例;</span></p><p><span>意大利新增240例,确诊病例达到1128例;</span></p><p><span>伊朗确诊593例,其中43例死亡,更可怕的是伊朗多名政要感染,团灭的节奏。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fc380ca457958974c3397b4362dd57a\" /></p><p><b><span>比起确诊人数更让人担心的是各国对待疫情的态度和执行力。</span></b></p><p><span>韩国在疫情爆发后,至今仍然没有封城,甚至有宗教人士出面,大规模组织集会对抗政府。</span></p><p><span>日本政府的态度非常不明确,为了不影响奥运会的召开,故意缓慢处理疫情,提高核酸试剂盒的检测条件,想通过降低检测数来减少确诊人数。</span></p><p><span>意大利对疫情倒是非常重视。早在1月30日第一次确诊了两例,总理孔特就当机立断宣布意大利进入"紧急状态",无奈的是后续政府马上陷入了政党内耗,迟迟无法出台防疫措施。</span></p><p><span>伊朗的局势更加严峻,由于没有能力检测,医疗设备也较落后,大部分伊朗感染人群都是病情非常严重之后才进入医院。再加上伊朗多名高官也确诊了,伊朗的情况不容乐观。</span></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ca93426a9cb5364f99e6d164d93d8e93\" /></p><p><span>还有美国本身也极不重视防疫。</span></p><p><b><span>因此,短期来看,疫情反复的可能性比较大,一旦美国疫情有坏消息,美股可再插水。</span></b></p><p><span>除了疫情影响,2020年的大选也是市场的一个不确定性。疫情前,市场预期川普连任概率大,但现在随着美国出现疫情和美股大跌,川普连任有机会被民主党桑德斯挑战,市场讨论不确定性。虽说桑德斯上台,毛利衣有机会缓和,但是他的政策却对于美国科技股巨头和其他大企业极之不利。</span></p><p><span>这也是美股今年的不确定性之一。</span></p><p><b><span>总结</span></b></p><p><span>综合目前的市场情绪、政策和潜在风险,全球股市的下跌短期还没有到反转的时候。</span></p><p><b><span>但是从长远来看,美联储肯定是会继续吹大泡沫的,未来的美股是死不了。</span></b></p><p><span>在这段不太平静的时期,股市难免波动较大,投资者看到上蹿下跳的股价时,难免会有追涨杀跌的欲望。</span></p><p><span>但是我们还是建议大家不要做T,适当的离市场远一点。</span></p><p><span>有时间的话,可以读一下公司的财报,认真的计算一下持仓公司的内在价值和安全边际。</span></p><p><span>也许梳理完你就会明白,市场先生给的是机会,还是陷阱。</span></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3fd9b4b7cbec67c68f3fbf44b021799e","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186469170","content_text":"2月27日,全球指数纷纷跳水,道指、标普、纳指都下跌4%以上,道指狂泄1000点。纳斯达克指数单周暴跌10%,下跌幅度仅次于金融危机最恐慌时的两次急挫。其实,从2019年下半年以来,在宽松的预期下,全球指数就开启了新一轮的上涨。疫情危机从逻辑上来说,并没有影响到长期预期。所以美联储一出来喊话,指数又迅速企稳,周一晚还创下了历史上单日反弹很多点数的纪录。被骗下车的投资者纷纷惊呼:卧槽!无情!但是美股是不是就这样就见底了?从公司的盈利和估值来看,现在又是不是一个很好的上车机会?面对情绪起伏不定的市场先生,现在的美股市场,到底是机会还是陷阱呢?过往调整的时间股票研究,尤其是指数的走势,其实就是一个不断总结过去,并期望未来会发生同样事情来让我们获利的游戏。我们不妨翻开美股的历史,看看市场先生喜欢什么套路。从历史数据来看,美股近二十年有过几次明显的回撤。幅度最大的是2008年金融危机。从2007年10月份顶峰计算,整个触底过程耗时1年5个月,到2009年3月份才到达底部。当时的资本市场面对着严重的流动性危机,不断有公司倒闭。纳指在这个过程中下跌了50%,不可谓不惨烈。后续花了两年时间,纳斯达克才在2011年回到2007年的峰值水平。接下来幅度比较大时期的还有2015年-2016年。这两年中国在经历严重的股灾,同年特朗普上台。这段时期,纳斯达克有过两次10%以上的回撤,分别用了1个月和2个月时间触底。整个下挫耗时一年,然后开启了新一轮上涨,2017年,纳指上涨30%。接下来还有2011年8月份的急挫,纳指花了3个月时间筑底,最大回撤幅度13%。其他大大小小的回撤还有很多,比如说2018年10月-12月、2010年5-7月,都有过20%左右幅度的回撤,这些回撤都在3个月左右筑底,然后又开始新一轮上涨。所以,仅仅从近二十年的指数数据来看,美股的筑底期大概在3个月左右。严重点像金融危机,修复期则可能持续一年。这一次的疫情,虽然严重程度大概率不如金融危机,但是从市场先生的习惯来说,他可能还是喜欢和大家多玩一段时间。估值性价比光从K线数据分析,还不足以判断应该抄底还是观望,毕竟美股在上世纪70年代曾经有过10年不涨的历史。在那十年里面,无论何时抄底,都要持有很长时间才能解套。假如从估值和企业盈利的角度来看,美股现在处于一个什么样的位置呢?上周,从美国大型公司具体情况看,基本所有领域的公司都出现了大幅下跌。首先是科技类公司。苹果下跌12.68%,Facebook下跌8.43%,谷歌A类股跌9.82%,亚马逊下跌10.31%,微软下跌9.28%。半导体方面,AMD下跌14.66%,英伟达下跌8.11%,英特尔下跌13.71%。金融板块和消费板块也有较大幅度下跌,摩根大通下跌14.51%,宝洁下跌10.63%。然而在经历了急剧的下跌后,其实很多公司的估值仍然在历史的高位。比如说苹果的市盈率,比起2018年12月份,仍然贵了不少。而且从2016年开始,苹果的收入增速就下降到个位数级别,对估值的支撑比较弱。其股价的上涨动力一方面是因为减税带来的利润提升,另外一方面是因为市场对5G换机潮的预期带来的估值提升。除了苹果公司之外,互联网、半导体和金融的几个标杆企业,营业收入和利润也出现了不同程度的下滑。比如说谷歌,营收和利润的增速都为近4年来最低值。半导体领域的英伟达,营收和利润都从2017年以来首次转负。巴菲特旗下的伯克希尔,营业收入增速为5年来最低,营业利润增速下降到1.23%。整体来看,企业的整体利润增速处于一个比较低的位置,但是目前标普、道指、纳指的整体市盈率,分别为24.1倍、22.5倍和35.68倍,却处于一个相对高的位置。所以,从估值的角度看,现在的美股依然不便宜。预期金融市场的定价,其中相当一部分是对未来的预期。比如同样市盈率为30倍的A公司和B公司,A公司未来三年增长率是100%,B公司未来三年增长率是5%,那么B公司的估值明显要比A公司更贵。目前股票市场的估值看起来并不便宜,但事实上,他们是真的不便宜吗?从2008年金融危机以来,美联储分别进行了3次明显的扩表操作。分别是2008年9月份、2010年10月份和2012年11月份。2008年9月份,市场开始进行量化宽松后,美股从2009年3月份开始触底反弹。这一轮反弹主要是估值驱动,我们可以看到标普和纳指的估值在这段时期不断攀升,纳指最高达到50倍PE。2010年11月到2011年6月份是另外一次扩表,这一次美联储的资产增加了30%。在扩表之前,股市就开始反弹。随着资产负债表的上升,股市也逐渐走高,纳指在2010年12月份达到42倍PE的短期新高。2012年10月份到2014年9月份,美联储继续扩表60%,美股也在2011年的低位盘整后,走出了一波4年大牛市。市场估值同样是在扩表中期达到峰值。虽然这三个时间段,美股的估值都到达一个高位,但是站在2020年的现在回过头看,即使在当时最高点买入,现在也会有高额的回报。结合企业盈利,我们以2009年整个纳斯达克盈利前100名的公司作为样本,跟踪他们从2009年到2016年的盈利状况,如下图所示。我们可以看到,盈利分别在2011年、2013年和2015年有较大的增长,刚好和几次扩表的时间重合。也就是说,美股的每一轮牛市,基本都是在宽松的预期下,股市的估值先提升;宽松的过程,企业的盈利提升,从而消化估值;然后股市涨不动了,美联储又开始进行宽松。就是这样一轮又一轮宽松,不断的推高资产价格,造出了美股的十年长牛。而现在,美联储又开始降息和扩表了,聪明的投资者们,又打算配合美联储演这一出好戏,一起推高股市,一起赚钱。但大家都明白子弹终有用完的一日,如果这次突如其来的疫情,减息太猛,利率又降到接近0的位置,后面假如再出现增长乏力的情况。美联储这个游戏,要怎么玩下去呢?风险股神说过对于徫大的公司,只要合理的价格买进就可以了,我认为他所指的伟大公司就是存在护城河带来的增长确定性。言下之意,只要有足够的确定性,不要贪太便宜。这句话也可以应用在整体美股上,先假设美股估值现在是合理略高一点,那确定性足够吗?明显地很多场外因素仍然处于不确定的阶段。首先,作为这次暴跌的导火索,疫情仍然在蔓延。韩国2月29日新确诊376例,累计病例达3526例;日本国内确诊病例升至947例;意大利新增240例,确诊病例达到1128例;伊朗确诊593例,其中43例死亡,更可怕的是伊朗多名政要感染,团灭的节奏。比起确诊人数更让人担心的是各国对待疫情的态度和执行力。韩国在疫情爆发后,至今仍然没有封城,甚至有宗教人士出面,大规模组织集会对抗政府。日本政府的态度非常不明确,为了不影响奥运会的召开,故意缓慢处理疫情,提高核酸试剂盒的检测条件,想通过降低检测数来减少确诊人数。意大利对疫情倒是非常重视。早在1月30日第一次确诊了两例,总理孔特就当机立断宣布意大利进入\"紧急状态\",无奈的是后续政府马上陷入了政党内耗,迟迟无法出台防疫措施。伊朗的局势更加严峻,由于没有能力检测,医疗设备也较落后,大部分伊朗感染人群都是病情非常严重之后才进入医院。再加上伊朗多名高官也确诊了,伊朗的情况不容乐观。还有美国本身也极不重视防疫。因此,短期来看,疫情反复的可能性比较大,一旦美国疫情有坏消息,美股可再插水。除了疫情影响,2020年的大选也是市场的一个不确定性。疫情前,市场预期川普连任概率大,但现在随着美国出现疫情和美股大跌,川普连任有机会被民主党桑德斯挑战,市场讨论不确定性。虽说桑德斯上台,毛利衣有机会缓和,但是他的政策却对于美国科技股巨头和其他大企业极之不利。这也是美股今年的不确定性之一。总结综合目前的市场情绪、政策和潜在风险,全球股市的下跌短期还没有到反转的时候。但是从长远来看,美联储肯定是会继续吹大泡沫的,未来的美股是死不了。在这段不太平静的时期,股市难免波动较大,投资者看到上蹿下跳的股价时,难免会有追涨杀跌的欲望。但是我们还是建议大家不要做T,适当的离市场远一点。有时间的话,可以读一下公司的财报,认真的计算一下持仓公司的内在价值和安全边际。也许梳理完你就会明白,市场先生给的是机会,还是陷阱。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1622,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":904800662,"gmtCreate":1560951322556,"gmtModify":1704701088231,"author":{"id":"3498077904051180","authorId":"3498077904051180","name":"黑猫白猫逮住老鼠的就是好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/86a65ea90f5a2ec10db4f0095087b646","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3498077904051180","authorIdStr":"3498077904051180"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 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