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郭的国
2022-11-08
I think..., I believe..., I don't see.... who are you?
Jumia Technologies: Burn (Cash) Baby Burn
郭的国
2019-01-03
$蔚来(NIO)$ 穿!
郭的国
2018-12-20
$蔚来(NIO)$ 现在才发现在这里还不敢乱说话,不过还是要说两句。正是因为有人看多,也有人看空,才形成了股票每天的成交量,你是今天的坚实做多者,但在你卖出的那一刻又是真真实实做空者,反之亦然。所以,看多者去谩骂看空者,或看空者去谩骂看多者,实属没有必要。看多者既然这么坚实的看多,那就在市场上打爆空头就成了,何必多费口水,如果非此,那也说明你对自己的看多也信心不足,心中也有空心,那又何必去攻击其他有空心的人?反之亦然...... 盘口反映一切。
郭的国
2018-12-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 一辆特斯拉Model S在加州莫名自燃 老虎资讯综合 2018-12-19 18:13 北京时间12月19日晚间消息,美国加州圣克拉拉县消防局称,一辆特斯拉$(TSLA)$Model S电动汽车周二在洛斯盖图斯的一个商业停车场起火。但没有人员受伤,邻近的建筑物也没有受损。当时,这辆汽车并未发生碰撞。 对此,特斯拉发言人在一份声明中称:“目前我们正在调查此事,并与现场急救人员保持联系。庆幸的是,没有人员受伤。”
郭的国
2018-12-19
$蔚来(NIO)$ 对于蔚来汽车股价的起伏,华尔街的分析师渐露看空其市场前景。投资机构伯恩斯坦发布报告称,蔚来ES8卖一辆亏一辆,订单增速走低,销售渠道狭窄,市场竞争激烈,将蔚来汽车股票评级设定为“跑输大市,股票目标价仅为每股4.2美元,与建议卖出无异。 国泰君安$(02611)$证券驻香港的分析师也呈悲观态度,“蔚来最大的挑战在于生产。在其上市以后,蔚来的股票可能在短期内获得投资者的青睐,然而随着投资者的理性战胜感性以及蔚来公布更加透明的数据后,这种热情最终将会冷却下来。
郭的国
2018-12-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 19年 捷豹,宝马,奥迪,奔驰,尤其是保时捷的电动车相继上市。特斯拉,蔚来, 已两手空空[贱笑]
郭的国
2018-11-28
$哈里斯公司(HRS)$ 有人不?这股票为什么没有人讨论,大家都是看舆论消息操作的吗?
郭的国
2018-11-13
$蔚来汽车(NIO)$ 不知道有没有同样在等待做空机会的人在这里?哈哈😄
郭的国
2018-11-05
$苹果(AAPL)$ 上周五高通又对苹果盗取其核心技术给Intel来改善英特尔的基带芯片信号提起独立诉讼。他们的决裂将使苹果在5G手机上的推出比采用高通的厂家晚一年,计划在2020年,其他厂商则预计在2019年发布5G手机。
郭的国
2018-11-05
$苹果(AAPL)$ 虽然财报还行,但是主营业务手机的创新已经到了天花板,其他厂商譬如华为已经在缩小差距,所以手机以后不见得还会猛增,至于ipad, mac, 这两个东西目前整个市场都在萎缩,大家人手一个高性能手机就够了,ipad,笔记本一个星期用一次的频率。所以长期来看,空苹果。至于它的传说中的汽车,比他走在前面的高科技汽车厂商现在越来越多,而且都已经商业化了。
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think..., I believe..., I don't see.... who are you?","listText":"I think..., I believe..., I don't see.... who are you?","text":"I think..., I believe..., I don't see.... who are you?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664119299","repostId":"2279038761","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2279038761","pubTimestamp":1667221200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2279038761?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-31 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jumia Technologies: Burn (Cash) Baby Burn","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2279038761","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Daniel Megias/iStock via Getty Images Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA) is an African eCommerce company","content":"<html><body><figure><picture> <img height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Daniel Megias/iStock via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure> <p>Jumia Technologies (<span>NYSE:JMIA</span>) is an African eCommerce company that flew high in light of the 2021 meme stock mania and has since crashed 90%. The company has a significant cash burn problem. I believe it could be headed toward bankruptcy, with the<span> ability to refinance becoming harder in this environment and dilution not a viable option anymore at this valuation.</span></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"506\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670355007664437.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia performance <span>(google)</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Operating in a growing industry</h2> <p>Jumia operates in an attractive but challenging market. African E-Commerce is expected to grow at an 18% CAGR up to $72 billion in 2025. By then, 520 million people are expected to use eCommerce services or a 39.5% penetration. ECommerce is texted to reach a 3% penetration compared to offline commerce by then, significantly lagging the rest of the world and leaving a significant opportunity.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-1667035687920808.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>African eCommerce market expectations <span>(Statista)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Although this leaves ample opportunity, we must acknowledge that Africa is a vast and diverse continent with thousands of languages spoken. Expanding into new countries isn't as simple as it sounds and involves a lot of costs, especially if you are fulfilling orders.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"352\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670360044656062.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Diversity in Africa <span>(Medium (Jessica Innis))</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>What does Jumia do?</h2> <p>Jumia has five main revenue streams: Fulfilment of orders for third-party sellers, commissions from third-party sellers, Marketing & Advertising services, Value-added services and first-party sales. Revenues have stagnated over the last four years, while most eCommerce companies saw exponential growth.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"286\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670365928091028.png\" width=\"478\"/> </picture><figcaption><p>Jumia revenue by segments <span>(Authors model, Data from 10K)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>In 2022 revenue growth did pick up and revenues increased to over $200 million. Still, costs continued to rise, amounting to a Cash outflow of $254 million (keep in mind that FCF doesn't include the $37 million in stock-based compensation, which doesn't burn cash but dilutes the value each share represents in the company).</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"331\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670402967287295.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia Cash burn <span>(Koyfin)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>We have to give management some credit for using the manic share prices in 2021 when the company traded at almost 50 times gross profit and raised cash. The company raised around $244 million in 2020 and $349 million in 2021, diluting shareholders by around 25% in total. The company currently has a market cap of $509 million and would have to dilute shareholders substantially to raise money.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"331\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670411110086226.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia cash raised <span>(Koyfin)</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Path to profitability</h2> <p>The company's plan to reach profitability has six points:</p> <ul> <li>Continue to grow gross merchandise volume (GMV) by at least 15%.</li> <li>Accelerate monetization to increase gross profits by 27-44%.</li> <li>Reduce Sales & Advertising costs by 18-37% to $35-45m for H2 22.</li> <li>They see Q4 21 as the peak for losses at $70m adjusted EBITDA (I hate adjusting an already heavily adjusted number like EBITDA).</li> <li>They expect a YoY reduction of 12-29% in costs for H2 22 compared to H1 22.</li> <li>FY 22 guidance of Adjusted EBITDA loss between $200-220 million and a decreasing Adjusted EBITDA loss in FY 2023.</li> </ul> <p>I do not believe this is enough to turn this ship around. If we look at the data below, we can see that GMV grew by 34%, while Gross Profit only grew 23% and Operating loss increased by 43% for the quarter. The company made $33.1 million in gross profit and had already spent over 90% on fulfillment expenses. So basically, after just delivering the orders, the company was already losing money on their business without factoring in all the other costs. Especially G&A expenses stand out. The company spends a lot of stuff here just to run their business, $29.5 million without even including the $7.3 million in stock-based compensation. The company has had higher G&A costs in 17/18 quarters on record (the one quarter where gross profit was higher saw $27.26 million versus $26.17 million). I do not see how this business is working out.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"457\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670417130566874.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia Constant Currency Data <span>(Jumia Q2 presentation)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Let's assume that they manage to curb costs by 40% each year, which I do not find realistic given their plan to \"profitability\" they would need to raise cash in 2024/2025 at the latest. According to gurufocus, Jumia has a cost of capital of 16.7%, so taking on debt is very expensive and issuing shares is likely not an option due to the small market cap compared to their expected losses.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <tr> <td> </td> <td>2022</td> <td>2023</td> <td>2024</td> <td>2025</td> <td>2026</td> <td>2027</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Cash/Equivalents</td> <td>$350</td> <td>$171</td> <td>$44</td> <td>-$47</td> <td>-$112</td> <td>-$159</td> </tr> <tr> <td>losses (40% improvement each year)</td> <td>$250</td> <td>$178</td> <td>$127</td> <td>$91</td> <td>$65</td> <td>$46</td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <h2>Comparison to Sea Limited</h2> <p>Sea Limited (SE) is another high-flying growth stock running on significant losses this year. Sea Limited also burned through a lot of cash, but the difference is that they also grew exponentially. Jumia loses over 100% of revenues to grow around 20%. This leads to ballooning costs, as we see with G&A. If we compare G&A as a percentage of revenue for Sea Limited, we can see that they increasingly got operating leverage. No such trend is seen with Jumia. Another key difference is that Sea Limited had one very profitable segment with Garena, its gaming segment that posted hundreds of million in operating cash flow. This was a great cushion to help against the aggressive loss-making expansion into eCommerce. Jumia doesn't have such a segment and instead loses money everywhere.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"331\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-1667042540899043.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>JMIA vs SE <span>(Koyfin)</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>What about liquidation?</h2> <p>As I explained in the previous segments, I do not see the business model working out with their unit economics, so the only option is liquidation. In the charts below, we see that the Tangible Book value of Jumia is at $281 million, just 1.8 times less than the market cap. The company has a lot of cash and short-term investments, but they are being eaten away quickly. If we look out three years, they will have eaten through all of these cash reserves, reducing possible liquidation value to around $50-100 million if we credit them $28 million in PPE and give some value to their annual active consumers (8 million in FY 21) and active quarterly consumers (3.4 million in Q2 2022, so these customers purchase relatively infrequently).</p> <div></div> <p>The best course of action would be to seek liquidation or a takeover bid from a company like Walmart (WMT) while they still have a lot of substance to the business via the $350 million in liquidity. I do not see how the company can turn a profit with its lack of cost control and bad unit economics. Even after a 90% fall, the downside from here is still substantial.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"331\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-1667043409747662.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia Liquidation value <span>(Koyfin)</span></p></figcaption></figure></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jumia Technologies: Burn (Cash) Baby Burn</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJumia Technologies: Burn (Cash) Baby Burn\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-31 21:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551082-jumia-technologies-burn-cash-baby-burn><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Daniel Megias/iStock via Getty Images Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA) is an African eCommerce company that flew high in light of the 2021 meme stock mania and has since crashed 90%. The company has a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551082-jumia-technologies-burn-cash-baby-burn\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002679.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Balanced SGD","JMIA":"Jumia Technologies AG","SG9999005177.SGD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Southeast Asia Trust A Acc SGD","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","SG9999002604.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore/Malaysia SGD","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","SG9999013486.USD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (USD) INC A","LU0048573645.USD":"富达东盟基金","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0251143029.SGD":"Fidelity ASEAN A-SGD","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SG9999002414.USD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE TRUST (USD) ACC","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","SE":"Sea Ltd","LU0532188223.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - ASEAN Equity A (acc) SGD","BGNE":"百济神州","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","SGXZ58947870.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999002406.SGD":"利安新加坡信托基金","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SG9999002620.SGD":"LionGlobal South East Asia SGD","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD) INC","WMT":"沃尔玛","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4522":"非洲概念","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","SG9999013460.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Dividend Equity Fund SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","SG9999013478.USD":"利安新加坡股息基金","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551082-jumia-technologies-burn-cash-baby-burn","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2279038761","content_text":"Daniel Megias/iStock via Getty Images Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA) is an African eCommerce company that flew high in light of the 2021 meme stock mania and has since crashed 90%. The company has a significant cash burn problem. I believe it could be headed toward bankruptcy, with the ability to refinance becoming harder in this environment and dilution not a viable option anymore at this valuation. Jumia performance (google)Operating in a growing industry Jumia operates in an attractive but challenging market. African E-Commerce is expected to grow at an 18% CAGR up to $72 billion in 2025. By then, 520 million people are expected to use eCommerce services or a 39.5% penetration. ECommerce is texted to reach a 3% penetration compared to offline commerce by then, significantly lagging the rest of the world and leaving a significant opportunity. African eCommerce market expectations (Statista)Although this leaves ample opportunity, we must acknowledge that Africa is a vast and diverse continent with thousands of languages spoken. Expanding into new countries isn't as simple as it sounds and involves a lot of costs, especially if you are fulfilling orders. Diversity in Africa (Medium (Jessica Innis))What does Jumia do? Jumia has five main revenue streams: Fulfilment of orders for third-party sellers, commissions from third-party sellers, Marketing & Advertising services, Value-added services and first-party sales. Revenues have stagnated over the last four years, while most eCommerce companies saw exponential growth. Jumia revenue by segments (Authors model, Data from 10K)In 2022 revenue growth did pick up and revenues increased to over $200 million. Still, costs continued to rise, amounting to a Cash outflow of $254 million (keep in mind that FCF doesn't include the $37 million in stock-based compensation, which doesn't burn cash but dilutes the value each share represents in the company). Jumia Cash burn (Koyfin)We have to give management some credit for using the manic share prices in 2021 when the company traded at almost 50 times gross profit and raised cash. The company raised around $244 million in 2020 and $349 million in 2021, diluting shareholders by around 25% in total. The company currently has a market cap of $509 million and would have to dilute shareholders substantially to raise money. Jumia cash raised (Koyfin)Path to profitability The company's plan to reach profitability has six points: Continue to grow gross merchandise volume (GMV) by at least 15%. Accelerate monetization to increase gross profits by 27-44%. Reduce Sales & Advertising costs by 18-37% to $35-45m for H2 22. They see Q4 21 as the peak for losses at $70m adjusted EBITDA (I hate adjusting an already heavily adjusted number like EBITDA). They expect a YoY reduction of 12-29% in costs for H2 22 compared to H1 22. FY 22 guidance of Adjusted EBITDA loss between $200-220 million and a decreasing Adjusted EBITDA loss in FY 2023. I do not believe this is enough to turn this ship around. If we look at the data below, we can see that GMV grew by 34%, while Gross Profit only grew 23% and Operating loss increased by 43% for the quarter. The company made $33.1 million in gross profit and had already spent over 90% on fulfillment expenses. So basically, after just delivering the orders, the company was already losing money on their business without factoring in all the other costs. Especially G&A expenses stand out. The company spends a lot of stuff here just to run their business, $29.5 million without even including the $7.3 million in stock-based compensation. The company has had higher G&A costs in 17/18 quarters on record (the one quarter where gross profit was higher saw $27.26 million versus $26.17 million). I do not see how this business is working out. Jumia Constant Currency Data (Jumia Q2 presentation)Let's assume that they manage to curb costs by 40% each year, which I do not find realistic given their plan to \"profitability\" they would need to raise cash in 2024/2025 at the latest. According to gurufocus, Jumia has a cost of capital of 16.7%, so taking on debt is very expensive and issuing shares is likely not an option due to the small market cap compared to their expected losses. 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total Cash/Equivalents $350 $171 $44 -$47 -$112 -$159 losses (40% improvement each year) $250 $178 $127 $91 $65 $46 Click to enlarge Comparison to Sea Limited Sea Limited (SE) is another high-flying growth stock running on significant losses this year. Sea Limited also burned through a lot of cash, but the difference is that they also grew exponentially. Jumia loses over 100% of revenues to grow around 20%. This leads to ballooning costs, as we see with G&A. If we compare G&A as a percentage of revenue for Sea Limited, we can see that they increasingly got operating leverage. No such trend is seen with Jumia. Another key difference is that Sea Limited had one very profitable segment with Garena, its gaming segment that posted hundreds of million in operating cash flow. This was a great cushion to help against the aggressive loss-making expansion into eCommerce. Jumia doesn't have such a segment and instead loses money everywhere. JMIA vs SE (Koyfin)What about liquidation? As I explained in the previous segments, I do not see the business model working out with their unit economics, so the only option is liquidation. In the charts below, we see that the Tangible Book value of Jumia is at $281 million, just 1.8 times less than the market cap. The company has a lot of cash and short-term investments, but they are being eaten away quickly. If we look out three years, they will have eaten through all of these cash reserves, reducing possible liquidation value to around $50-100 million if we credit them $28 million in PPE and give some value to their annual active consumers (8 million in FY 21) and active quarterly consumers (3.4 million in Q2 2022, so these customers purchase relatively infrequently). The best course of action would be to seek liquidation or a takeover bid from a company like Walmart (WMT) while they still have a lot of substance to the business via the $350 million in liquidity. I do not see how the company can turn a profit with its lack of cost control and bad unit economics. Even after a 90% fall, the downside from here is still substantial. Jumia Liquidation value (Koyfin)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369754,"gmtCreate":1546526260506,"gmtModify":1704785667665,"author":{"id":"3497417414455445","authorId":"3497417414455445","name":"郭的国","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3497417414455445","idStr":"3497417414455445"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 穿!","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 穿!","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 穿!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369754","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360354,"gmtCreate":1545308929820,"gmtModify":1704784527147,"author":{"id":"3497417414455445","authorId":"3497417414455445","name":"郭的国","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3497417414455445","idStr":"3497417414455445"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 现在才发现在这里还不敢乱说话,不过还是要说两句。正是因为有人看多,也有人看空,才形成了股票每天的成交量,你是今天的坚实做多者,但在你卖出的那一刻又是真真实实做空者,反之亦然。所以,看多者去谩骂看空者,或看空者去谩骂看多者,实属没有必要。看多者既然这么坚实的看多,那就在市场上打爆空头就成了,何必多费口水,如果非此,那也说明你对自己的看多也信心不足,心中也有空心,那又何必去攻击其他有空心的人?反之亦然...... 盘口反映一切。","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 现在才发现在这里还不敢乱说话,不过还是要说两句。正是因为有人看多,也有人看空,才形成了股票每天的成交量,你是今天的坚实做多者,但在你卖出的那一刻又是真真实实做空者,反之亦然。所以,看多者去谩骂看空者,或看空者去谩骂看多者,实属没有必要。看多者既然这么坚实的看多,那就在市场上打爆空头就成了,何必多费口水,如果非此,那也说明你对自己的看多也信心不足,心中也有空心,那又何必去攻击其他有空心的人?反之亦然...... 盘口反映一切。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 现在才发现在这里还不敢乱说话,不过还是要说两句。正是因为有人看多,也有人看空,才形成了股票每天的成交量,你是今天的坚实做多者,但在你卖出的那一刻又是真真实实做空者,反之亦然。所以,看多者去谩骂看空者,或看空者去谩骂看多者,实属没有必要。看多者既然这么坚实的看多,那就在市场上打爆空头就成了,何必多费口水,如果非此,那也说明你对自己的看多也信心不足,心中也有空心,那又何必去攻击其他有空心的人?反之亦然...... 盘口反映一切。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360354","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1852,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3504264251982830","authorId":"3504264251982830","name":"等等等等等","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3504264251982830","idStr":"3504264251982830"},"content":"不反对做空,市场需要做空,需要的是刺破泡沫的做空,不需要靠发布一些抹黑事情的坐空,扰乱市场。","text":"不反对做空,市场需要做空,需要的是刺破泡沫的做空,不需要靠发布一些抹黑事情的坐空,扰乱市场。","html":"不反对做空,市场需要做空,需要的是刺破泡沫的做空,不需要靠发布一些抹黑事情的坐空,扰乱市场。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359216,"gmtCreate":1545220484743,"gmtModify":1704784383051,"author":{"id":"3497417414455445","authorId":"3497417414455445","name":"郭的国","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3497417414455445","idStr":"3497417414455445"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 一辆特斯拉Model S在加州莫名自燃 老虎资讯综合 2018-12-19 18:13 北京时间12月19日晚间消息,美国加州圣克拉拉县消防局称,一辆特斯拉$(TSLA)$Model S电动汽车周二在洛斯盖图斯的一个商业停车场起火。但没有人员受伤,邻近的建筑物也没有受损。当时,这辆汽车并未发生碰撞。 对此,特斯拉发言人在一份声明中称:“目前我们正在调查此事,并与现场急救人员保持联系。庆幸的是,没有人员受伤。”","listText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 一辆特斯拉Model S在加州莫名自燃 老虎资讯综合 2018-12-19 18:13 北京时间12月19日晚间消息,美国加州圣克拉拉县消防局称,一辆特斯拉$(TSLA)$Model S电动汽车周二在洛斯盖图斯的一个商业停车场起火。但没有人员受伤,邻近的建筑物也没有受损。当时,这辆汽车并未发生碰撞。 对此,特斯拉发言人在一份声明中称:“目前我们正在调查此事,并与现场急救人员保持联系。庆幸的是,没有人员受伤。”","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 一辆特斯拉Model S在加州莫名自燃 老虎资讯综合 2018-12-19 18:13 北京时间12月19日晚间消息,美国加州圣克拉拉县消防局称,一辆特斯拉$(TSLA)$Model S电动汽车周二在洛斯盖图斯的一个商业停车场起火。但没有人员受伤,邻近的建筑物也没有受损。当时,这辆汽车并未发生碰撞。 对此,特斯拉发言人在一份声明中称:“目前我们正在调查此事,并与现场急救人员保持联系。庆幸的是,没有人员受伤。”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359215,"gmtCreate":1545220407814,"gmtModify":1704784383222,"author":{"id":"3497417414455445","authorId":"3497417414455445","name":"郭的国","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3497417414455445","idStr":"3497417414455445"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 对于蔚来汽车股价的起伏,华尔街的分析师渐露看空其市场前景。投资机构伯恩斯坦发布报告称,蔚来ES8卖一辆亏一辆,订单增速走低,销售渠道狭窄,市场竞争激烈,将蔚来汽车股票评级设定为“跑输大市,股票目标价仅为每股4.2美元,与建议卖出无异。 国泰君安$(02611)$证券驻香港的分析师也呈悲观态度,“蔚来最大的挑战在于生产。在其上市以后,蔚来的股票可能在短期内获得投资者的青睐,然而随着投资者的理性战胜感性以及蔚来公布更加透明的数据后,这种热情最终将会冷却下来。","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 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对于蔚来汽车股价的起伏,华尔街的分析师渐露看空其市场前景。投资机构伯恩斯坦发布报告称,蔚来ES8卖一辆亏一辆,订单增速走低,销售渠道狭窄,市场竞争激烈,将蔚来汽车股票评级设定为“跑输大市,股票目标价仅为每股4.2美元,与建议卖出无异。 国泰君安$(02611)$证券驻香港的分析师也呈悲观态度,“蔚来最大的挑战在于生产。在其上市以后,蔚来的股票可能在短期内获得投资者的青睐,然而随着投资者的理性战胜感性以及蔚来公布更加透明的数据后,这种热情最终将会冷却下来。","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 对于蔚来汽车股价的起伏,华尔街的分析师渐露看空其市场前景。投资机构伯恩斯坦发布报告称,蔚来ES8卖一辆亏一辆,订单增速走低,销售渠道狭窄,市场竞争激烈,将蔚来汽车股票评级设定为“跑输大市,股票目标价仅为每股4.2美元,与建议卖出无异。 国泰君安$(02611)$证券驻香港的分析师也呈悲观态度,“蔚来最大的挑战在于生产。在其上市以后,蔚来的股票可能在短期内获得投资者的青睐,然而随着投资者的理性战胜感性以及蔚来公布更加透明的数据后,这种热情最终将会冷却下来。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 对于蔚来汽车股价的起伏,华尔街的分析师渐露看空其市场前景。投资机构伯恩斯坦发布报告称,蔚来ES8卖一辆亏一辆,订单增速走低,销售渠道狭窄,市场竞争激烈,将蔚来汽车股票评级设定为“跑输大市,股票目标价仅为每股4.2美元,与建议卖出无异。 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有人不?这股票为什么没有人讨论,大家都是看舆论消息操作的吗?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/341043","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2453,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3502539952839658","authorId":"3502539952839658","name":"英和美","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6aa0bd34c8fc8f4f41cfd238df7fce8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3502539952839658","authorIdStr":"3502539952839658"},"content":"军火商严格受控于zf,上升空间不大吧,不过保守势力逐步盛行的美国,从白宫到民间应该都会加大国防开支,这股应该很稳,小涨可以,大涨的可能性不大。","text":"军火商严格受控于zf,上升空间不大吧,不过保守势力逐步盛行的美国,从白宫到民间应该都会加大国防开支,这股应该很稳,小涨可以,大涨的可能性不大。","html":"军火商严格受控于zf,上升空间不大吧,不过保守势力逐步盛行的美国,从白宫到民间应该都会加大国防开支,这股应该很稳,小涨可以,大涨的可能性不大。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":360354,"gmtCreate":1545308929820,"gmtModify":1704784527147,"author":{"id":"3497417414455445","authorId":"3497417414455445","name":"郭的国","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497417414455445","authorIdStr":"3497417414455445"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 现在才发现在这里还不敢乱说话,不过还是要说两句。正是因为有人看多,也有人看空,才形成了股票每天的成交量,你是今天的坚实做多者,但在你卖出的那一刻又是真真实实做空者,反之亦然。所以,看多者去谩骂看空者,或看空者去谩骂看多者,实属没有必要。看多者既然这么坚实的看多,那就在市场上打爆空头就成了,何必多费口水,如果非此,那也说明你对自己的看多也信心不足,心中也有空心,那又何必去攻击其他有空心的人?反之亦然...... 盘口反映一切。","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 现在才发现在这里还不敢乱说话,不过还是要说两句。正是因为有人看多,也有人看空,才形成了股票每天的成交量,你是今天的坚实做多者,但在你卖出的那一刻又是真真实实做空者,反之亦然。所以,看多者去谩骂看空者,或看空者去谩骂看多者,实属没有必要。看多者既然这么坚实的看多,那就在市场上打爆空头就成了,何必多费口水,如果非此,那也说明你对自己的看多也信心不足,心中也有空心,那又何必去攻击其他有空心的人?反之亦然...... 盘口反映一切。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 现在才发现在这里还不敢乱说话,不过还是要说两句。正是因为有人看多,也有人看空,才形成了股票每天的成交量,你是今天的坚实做多者,但在你卖出的那一刻又是真真实实做空者,反之亦然。所以,看多者去谩骂看空者,或看空者去谩骂看多者,实属没有必要。看多者既然这么坚实的看多,那就在市场上打爆空头就成了,何必多费口水,如果非此,那也说明你对自己的看多也信心不足,心中也有空心,那又何必去攻击其他有空心的人?反之亦然...... 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上周五高通又对苹果盗取其核心技术给Intel来改善英特尔的基带芯片信号提起独立诉讼。他们的决裂将使苹果在5G手机上的推出比采用高通的厂家晚一年,计划在2020年,其他厂商则预计在2019年发布5G手机。","listText":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 上周五高通又对苹果盗取其核心技术给Intel来改善英特尔的基带芯片信号提起独立诉讼。他们的决裂将使苹果在5G手机上的推出比采用高通的厂家晚一年,计划在2020年,其他厂商则预计在2019年发布5G手机。","text":"$苹果(AAPL)$ 上周五高通又对苹果盗取其核心技术给Intel来改善英特尔的基带芯片信号提起独立诉讼。他们的决裂将使苹果在5G手机上的推出比采用高通的厂家晚一年,计划在2020年,其他厂商则预计在2019年发布5G手机。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323353","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2217,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359216,"gmtCreate":1545220484743,"gmtModify":1704784383051,"author":{"id":"3497417414455445","authorId":"3497417414455445","name":"郭的国","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497417414455445","authorIdStr":"3497417414455445"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 一辆特斯拉Model 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对此,特斯拉发言人在一份声明中称:“目前我们正在调查此事,并与现场急救人员保持联系。庆幸的是,没有人员受伤。”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/359216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":369754,"gmtCreate":1546526260506,"gmtModify":1704785667665,"author":{"id":"3497417414455445","authorId":"3497417414455445","name":"郭的国","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497417414455445","authorIdStr":"3497417414455445"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 穿!","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 穿!","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 穿!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369754","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":664119299,"gmtCreate":1667865462111,"gmtModify":1667865465246,"author":{"id":"3497417414455445","authorId":"3497417414455445","name":"郭的国","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3497417414455445","authorIdStr":"3497417414455445"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"I think..., I believe..., I don't see.... who are you?","listText":"I think..., I believe..., I don't see.... who are you?","text":"I think..., I believe..., I don't see.... who are you?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664119299","repostId":"2279038761","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2279038761","pubTimestamp":1667221200,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2279038761?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-10-31 21:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jumia Technologies: Burn (Cash) Baby Burn","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2279038761","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Daniel Megias/iStock via Getty Images Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA) is an African eCommerce company","content":"<html><body><figure><picture> <img height=\"1024px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/> </picture><figcaption> <p>Daniel Megias/iStock via Getty Images</p></figcaption></figure> <p>Jumia Technologies (<span>NYSE:JMIA</span>) is an African eCommerce company that flew high in light of the 2021 meme stock mania and has since crashed 90%. The company has a significant cash burn problem. I believe it could be headed toward bankruptcy, with the<span> ability to refinance becoming harder in this environment and dilution not a viable option anymore at this valuation.</span></p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"506\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670355007664437.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia performance <span>(google)</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Operating in a growing industry</h2> <p>Jumia operates in an attractive but challenging market. African E-Commerce is expected to grow at an 18% CAGR up to $72 billion in 2025. By then, 520 million people are expected to use eCommerce services or a 39.5% penetration. ECommerce is texted to reach a 3% penetration compared to offline commerce by then, significantly lagging the rest of the world and leaving a significant opportunity.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-1667035687920808.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>African eCommerce market expectations <span>(Statista)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Although this leaves ample opportunity, we must acknowledge that Africa is a vast and diverse continent with thousands of languages spoken. Expanding into new countries isn't as simple as it sounds and involves a lot of costs, especially if you are fulfilling orders.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"352\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670360044656062.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Diversity in Africa <span>(Medium (Jessica Innis))</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>What does Jumia do?</h2> <p>Jumia has five main revenue streams: Fulfilment of orders for third-party sellers, commissions from third-party sellers, Marketing & Advertising services, Value-added services and first-party sales. Revenues have stagnated over the last four years, while most eCommerce companies saw exponential growth.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture> <img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"286\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670365928091028.png\" width=\"478\"/> </picture><figcaption><p>Jumia revenue by segments <span>(Authors model, Data from 10K)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>In 2022 revenue growth did pick up and revenues increased to over $200 million. Still, costs continued to rise, amounting to a Cash outflow of $254 million (keep in mind that FCF doesn't include the $37 million in stock-based compensation, which doesn't burn cash but dilutes the value each share represents in the company).</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"331\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670402967287295.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia Cash burn <span>(Koyfin)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>We have to give management some credit for using the manic share prices in 2021 when the company traded at almost 50 times gross profit and raised cash. The company raised around $244 million in 2020 and $349 million in 2021, diluting shareholders by around 25% in total. The company currently has a market cap of $509 million and would have to dilute shareholders substantially to raise money.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"331\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670411110086226.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia cash raised <span>(Koyfin)</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>Path to profitability</h2> <p>The company's plan to reach profitability has six points:</p> <ul> <li>Continue to grow gross merchandise volume (GMV) by at least 15%.</li> <li>Accelerate monetization to increase gross profits by 27-44%.</li> <li>Reduce Sales & Advertising costs by 18-37% to $35-45m for H2 22.</li> <li>They see Q4 21 as the peak for losses at $70m adjusted EBITDA (I hate adjusting an already heavily adjusted number like EBITDA).</li> <li>They expect a YoY reduction of 12-29% in costs for H2 22 compared to H1 22.</li> <li>FY 22 guidance of Adjusted EBITDA loss between $200-220 million and a decreasing Adjusted EBITDA loss in FY 2023.</li> </ul> <p>I do not believe this is enough to turn this ship around. If we look at the data below, we can see that GMV grew by 34%, while Gross Profit only grew 23% and Operating loss increased by 43% for the quarter. The company made $33.1 million in gross profit and had already spent over 90% on fulfillment expenses. So basically, after just delivering the orders, the company was already losing money on their business without factoring in all the other costs. Especially G&A expenses stand out. The company spends a lot of stuff here just to run their business, $29.5 million without even including the $7.3 million in stock-based compensation. The company has had higher G&A costs in 17/18 quarters on record (the one quarter where gross profit was higher saw $27.26 million versus $26.17 million). I do not see how this business is working out.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"457\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-16670417130566874.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia Constant Currency Data <span>(Jumia Q2 presentation)</span></p></figcaption></figure><p>Let's assume that they manage to curb costs by 40% each year, which I do not find realistic given their plan to \"profitability\" they would need to raise cash in 2024/2025 at the latest. According to gurufocus, Jumia has a cost of capital of 16.7%, so taking on debt is very expensive and issuing shares is likely not an option due to the small market cap compared to their expected losses.</p> <span><span><span></span><table> <tr> <td> </td> <td>2022</td> <td>2023</td> <td>2024</td> <td>2025</td> <td>2026</td> <td>2027</td> </tr> <tr> <td>Total Cash/Equivalents</td> <td>$350</td> <td>$171</td> <td>$44</td> <td>-$47</td> <td>-$112</td> <td>-$159</td> </tr> <tr> <td>losses (40% improvement each year)</td> <td>$250</td> <td>$178</td> <td>$127</td> <td>$91</td> <td>$65</td> <td>$46</td> </tr> </table> <span></span></span><button><svg viewbox=\"0 0 16 16\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/2000/svg\"><path clip-rule=\"evenodd\" d=\"M16 11a5 5 0 0 1-5 5H5a5 5 0 0 1-5-5V5a5 5 0 0 1 5-5h6a5 5 0 0 1 5 5v6zm-4.5-2.5h2v-6h-6v2h4v4zm-9-1h2v4h4v2h-6v-6z\" fill-rule=\"evenodd\"></path></svg>Click to enlarge</button></span> <h2>Comparison to Sea Limited</h2> <p>Sea Limited (SE) is another high-flying growth stock running on significant losses this year. Sea Limited also burned through a lot of cash, but the difference is that they also grew exponentially. Jumia loses over 100% of revenues to grow around 20%. This leads to ballooning costs, as we see with G&A. If we compare G&A as a percentage of revenue for Sea Limited, we can see that they increasingly got operating leverage. No such trend is seen with Jumia. Another key difference is that Sea Limited had one very profitable segment with Garena, its gaming segment that posted hundreds of million in operating cash flow. This was a great cushion to help against the aggressive loss-making expansion into eCommerce. Jumia doesn't have such a segment and instead loses money everywhere.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"331\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-1667042540899043.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>JMIA vs SE <span>(Koyfin)</span></p></figcaption></figure><h2>What about liquidation?</h2> <p>As I explained in the previous segments, I do not see the business model working out with their unit economics, so the only option is liquidation. In the charts below, we see that the Tangible Book value of Jumia is at $281 million, just 1.8 times less than the market cap. The company has a lot of cash and short-term investments, but they are being eaten away quickly. If we look out three years, they will have eaten through all of these cash reserves, reducing possible liquidation value to around $50-100 million if we credit them $28 million in PPE and give some value to their annual active consumers (8 million in FY 21) and active quarterly consumers (3.4 million in Q2 2022, so these customers purchase relatively infrequently).</p> <div></div> <p>The best course of action would be to seek liquidation or a takeover bid from a company like Walmart (WMT) while they still have a lot of substance to the business via the $350 million in liquidity. I do not see how the company can turn a profit with its lack of cost control and bad unit economics. Even after a 90% fall, the downside from here is still substantial.</p> <figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"true\" height=\"331\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2022/10/29/56002364-1667043409747662.png\" width=\"640\"/></span><figcaption><p>Jumia Liquidation value <span>(Koyfin)</span></p></figcaption></figure></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jumia Technologies: Burn (Cash) Baby Burn</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJumia Technologies: Burn (Cash) Baby Burn\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-10-31 21:00 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551082-jumia-technologies-burn-cash-baby-burn><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Daniel Megias/iStock via Getty Images Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA) is an African eCommerce company that flew high in light of the 2021 meme stock mania and has since crashed 90%. The company has a ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551082-jumia-technologies-burn-cash-baby-burn\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/1402851891/image_1402851891.jpg","relate_stocks":{"SG9999002679.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Balanced SGD","JMIA":"Jumia Technologies AG","SG9999005177.SGD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Southeast Asia Trust A Acc SGD","LU1280957306.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQUITIES \"AUP\" (USD) INC","SG9999002604.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore/Malaysia SGD","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4551":"寇图资本持仓","LU0310799852.SGD":"FTIF - Templeton Global Equity Income A MDIS SGD","SG9999013486.USD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (USD) INC A","LU0048573645.USD":"富达东盟基金","BK4155":"大卖场与超市","BK4505":"高瓴资本持仓","LU0251143029.SGD":"Fidelity ASEAN A-SGD","BK4085":"互动家庭娱乐","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SG9999002414.USD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE TRUST (USD) ACC","LU1430594728.SGD":"Eastspring Investments - Global Low Volatility Equity AS SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","SE":"Sea Ltd","LU0532188223.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - ASEAN Equity A (acc) SGD","BGNE":"百济神州","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0211327993.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930490.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"AS\" (SGD) INC A","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","SGXZ58947870.SGD":"LIONGLOBAL SINGAPORE DIVIDEND EQUITY (SGDHDG) INC","SG9999002406.SGD":"利安新加坡信托基金","LU1585245621.USD":"EASTSPRING INV GLOBAL LOW VOLATILITY EQUITY FUND \"A\" (USD) ACC B","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SG9999002620.SGD":"LionGlobal South East Asia SGD","LU0211328371.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A\" (MDIS) (USD) INC","WMT":"沃尔玛","BK4139":"生物科技","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4522":"非洲概念","LU0640476718.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) US CONTRARIAN CORE EQ \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4566":"资本集团","SG9999013460.SGD":"LionGlobal Singapore Dividend Equity Fund SGD","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","SG9999013478.USD":"利安新加坡股息基金","BK4526":"热门中概股"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4551082-jumia-technologies-burn-cash-baby-burn","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2279038761","content_text":"Daniel Megias/iStock via Getty Images Jumia Technologies (NYSE:JMIA) is an African eCommerce company that flew high in light of the 2021 meme stock mania and has since crashed 90%. The company has a significant cash burn problem. I believe it could be headed toward bankruptcy, with the ability to refinance becoming harder in this environment and dilution not a viable option anymore at this valuation. Jumia performance (google)Operating in a growing industry Jumia operates in an attractive but challenging market. African E-Commerce is expected to grow at an 18% CAGR up to $72 billion in 2025. By then, 520 million people are expected to use eCommerce services or a 39.5% penetration. ECommerce is texted to reach a 3% penetration compared to offline commerce by then, significantly lagging the rest of the world and leaving a significant opportunity. African eCommerce market expectations (Statista)Although this leaves ample opportunity, we must acknowledge that Africa is a vast and diverse continent with thousands of languages spoken. Expanding into new countries isn't as simple as it sounds and involves a lot of costs, especially if you are fulfilling orders. Diversity in Africa (Medium (Jessica Innis))What does Jumia do? Jumia has five main revenue streams: Fulfilment of orders for third-party sellers, commissions from third-party sellers, Marketing & Advertising services, Value-added services and first-party sales. Revenues have stagnated over the last four years, while most eCommerce companies saw exponential growth. Jumia revenue by segments (Authors model, Data from 10K)In 2022 revenue growth did pick up and revenues increased to over $200 million. Still, costs continued to rise, amounting to a Cash outflow of $254 million (keep in mind that FCF doesn't include the $37 million in stock-based compensation, which doesn't burn cash but dilutes the value each share represents in the company). Jumia Cash burn (Koyfin)We have to give management some credit for using the manic share prices in 2021 when the company traded at almost 50 times gross profit and raised cash. The company raised around $244 million in 2020 and $349 million in 2021, diluting shareholders by around 25% in total. The company currently has a market cap of $509 million and would have to dilute shareholders substantially to raise money. Jumia cash raised (Koyfin)Path to profitability The company's plan to reach profitability has six points: Continue to grow gross merchandise volume (GMV) by at least 15%. Accelerate monetization to increase gross profits by 27-44%. Reduce Sales & Advertising costs by 18-37% to $35-45m for H2 22. They see Q4 21 as the peak for losses at $70m adjusted EBITDA (I hate adjusting an already heavily adjusted number like EBITDA). They expect a YoY reduction of 12-29% in costs for H2 22 compared to H1 22. FY 22 guidance of Adjusted EBITDA loss between $200-220 million and a decreasing Adjusted EBITDA loss in FY 2023. I do not believe this is enough to turn this ship around. If we look at the data below, we can see that GMV grew by 34%, while Gross Profit only grew 23% and Operating loss increased by 43% for the quarter. The company made $33.1 million in gross profit and had already spent over 90% on fulfillment expenses. So basically, after just delivering the orders, the company was already losing money on their business without factoring in all the other costs. Especially G&A expenses stand out. The company spends a lot of stuff here just to run their business, $29.5 million without even including the $7.3 million in stock-based compensation. The company has had higher G&A costs in 17/18 quarters on record (the one quarter where gross profit was higher saw $27.26 million versus $26.17 million). I do not see how this business is working out. Jumia Constant Currency Data (Jumia Q2 presentation)Let's assume that they manage to curb costs by 40% each year, which I do not find realistic given their plan to \"profitability\" they would need to raise cash in 2024/2025 at the latest. According to gurufocus, Jumia has a cost of capital of 16.7%, so taking on debt is very expensive and issuing shares is likely not an option due to the small market cap compared to their expected losses. 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 Total Cash/Equivalents $350 $171 $44 -$47 -$112 -$159 losses (40% improvement each year) $250 $178 $127 $91 $65 $46 Click to enlarge Comparison to Sea Limited Sea Limited (SE) is another high-flying growth stock running on significant losses this year. Sea Limited also burned through a lot of cash, but the difference is that they also grew exponentially. Jumia loses over 100% of revenues to grow around 20%. This leads to ballooning costs, as we see with G&A. If we compare G&A as a percentage of revenue for Sea Limited, we can see that they increasingly got operating leverage. No such trend is seen with Jumia. Another key difference is that Sea Limited had one very profitable segment with Garena, its gaming segment that posted hundreds of million in operating cash flow. This was a great cushion to help against the aggressive loss-making expansion into eCommerce. Jumia doesn't have such a segment and instead loses money everywhere. JMIA vs SE (Koyfin)What about liquidation? As I explained in the previous segments, I do not see the business model working out with their unit economics, so the only option is liquidation. In the charts below, we see that the Tangible Book value of Jumia is at $281 million, just 1.8 times less than the market cap. The company has a lot of cash and short-term investments, but they are being eaten away quickly. If we look out three years, they will have eaten through all of these cash reserves, reducing possible liquidation value to around $50-100 million if we credit them $28 million in PPE and give some value to their annual active consumers (8 million in FY 21) and active quarterly consumers (3.4 million in Q2 2022, so these customers purchase relatively infrequently). The best course of action would be to seek liquidation or a takeover bid from a company like Walmart (WMT) while they still have a lot of substance to the business via the $350 million in liquidity. I do not see how the company can turn a profit with its lack of cost control and bad unit economics. Even after a 90% fall, the downside from here is still substantial. Jumia Liquidation value (Koyfin)","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":207,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}