紫杉资本的个人主页 - 老虎社区

紫杉资本

紫杉资本

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IP属地：四川

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0勋章

2022-01-20

吹吧，吹了这么多年慢牛！

抱歉，原内容已删除

2022-01-11

文章不错，转给大家看看

@阳光财经: 美股分析：惊！大盘出现见顶信号——标题党。

2021-09-30

这篇文章不错，转发给大家

@果盘:期权入门系列教程（二）：买期权的概念以及注意事项

2020-03-12

$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 历史时刻的见证者！又熔断了，，美股牛市彻底结束了！

2019-11-27

$东方证券(600958)$ 这里好安静

2019-08-19

$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 这几天，天天看着大盘涨，不敢上车[捂脸] [捂脸]

2019-07-26

$拼多多(PDD)$ 我有个事不明白，拼多多的资金走向大中小单都是往外流出，为啥股价还能涨呢？

2019-07-26

$拼多多(PDD)$ 感觉没有庄了，这只股终于价值回归了～

2019-04-18

$趣头条(QTT)$这个量啊，，

2019-04-17

$拼多多(PDD)$看来没那么容易好反弹啊，

2019-03-13

$拼多多(PDD)$我今天做多也是疯了

2019-03-13

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

@九格:拼多多Q4越亏越多，还是没有击败争议

2019-03-13

$拼多多(PDD)$财报业绩大涨，为啥股票大跌啊

2019-03-12

$趣头条(QTT)$止盈止损都是非常有必要的！已抛。

2019-03-11

$趣头条(QTT)$庄玩的好啊，上下全看他心情了！

2019-03-07

$趣头条(QTT)$今晚庄看来是洗洗睡了～

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传送门：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/868345553\" target=\"_blank\">期权入门系列教程（一）：什么是期权？</a> 本期我们聊期权的状态和买期权的相关事项。期权根据行权价的不同，可以分为实值期权、平价期权和虚值期权。期权的三种状态如果是看涨期权，股票的价格大于行权价，就表示当前期权处于实值期权状态；股票的价格等于行权价，表示当前期权是平价期权；股票价格小于行权价，表示当前期权处于虚值期权状态。看跌期权则是正好反过来，股票价格小于行权价，表示处于实值期权状态；股票价格大于行权价，表示处于虚值期权状态；股票价格等于行权价也是表示平价期权。有点乱，是吧？没关系，我们先来看下为什么这样规定呢？其实，期权从字面上理解就是：有期限的权利。如果买了一张期权，就表示在这个期权到期日之前你获得了一种权利。没错，就是权利，你只要行权，别人就必须无条件执行，你付出的代价就是购买这张期权花费的价格，也就是权利金。买入看涨期权的权利是：在到期日之前以该期权的行权价买入对应股票的权利。举个例子，如果你买了10月1日到期，行权价在$40的1张NIO看涨期权，那就意味着在10月1日之前，你都可以行权，以单价$40，买入100股NIO股票，也就是花$4000（$40*100）买入nio的股票。如果你持有这张期权，会在什么情况下行权？一定是NIO股价大于$40的时候才会去行权，如果股价小于$40，直接在市场上买就好了，干嘛要行权来花更贵的价格来买入股票呢。买入看跌期权的权利是：在到期日之前已该期权的行权价卖出对应股票的权利。同样，如果你买了10月1日到期，行权价在$40的1张NIO看涨期权，那就意味着在10月1日之前，你都可以行权，以单价$40，卖出100股NIO股票，也就是账户收入增加$4000（","listText":"上篇文章我们讲了期权的基本概念：到期日、行权价、权利金。 传送门：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/868345553\" target=\"_blank\">期权入门系列教程（一）：什么是期权？</a> 本期我们聊期权的状态和买期权的相关事项。期权根据行权价的不同，可以分为实值期权、平价期权和虚值期权。期权的三种状态如果是看涨期权，股票的价格大于行权价，就表示当前期权处于实值期权状态；股票的价格等于行权价，表示当前期权是平价期权；股票价格小于行权价，表示当前期权处于虚值期权状态。看跌期权则是正好反过来，股票价格小于行权价，表示处于实值期权状态；股票价格大于行权价，表示处于虚值期权状态；股票价格等于行权价也是表示平价期权。有点乱，是吧？没关系，我们先来看下为什么这样规定呢？其实，期权从字面上理解就是：有期限的权利。如果买了一张期权，就表示在这个期权到期日之前你获得了一种权利。没错，就是权利，你只要行权，别人就必须无条件执行，你付出的代价就是购买这张期权花费的价格，也就是权利金。买入看涨期权的权利是：在到期日之前以该期权的行权价买入对应股票的权利。举个例子，如果你买了10月1日到期，行权价在$40的1张NIO看涨期权，那就意味着在10月1日之前，你都可以行权，以单价$40，买入100股NIO股票，也就是花$4000（$40*100）买入nio的股票。如果你持有这张期权，会在什么情况下行权？一定是NIO股价大于$40的时候才会去行权，如果股价小于$40，直接在市场上买就好了，干嘛要行权来花更贵的价格来买入股票呢。买入看跌期权的权利是：在到期日之前已该期权的行权价卖出对应股票的权利。同样，如果你买了10月1日到期，行权价在$40的1张NIO看涨期权，那就意味着在10月1日之前，你都可以行权，以单价$40，卖出100股NIO股票，也就是账户收入增加$4000（","text":"上篇文章我们讲了期权的基本概念：到期日、行权价、权利金。 传送门：期权入门系列教程（一）：什么是期权？ 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10:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中国股市，未来十年将跑赢美股？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2204038810","media":"虎嗅","summary":"未来十年中国股市的预期年化回报约为6.5%","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月17日，中国央行发布消息称，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，当天开展7000亿中期借贷便利（MLF）操作和1000亿公开市场逆回购操作。中期借贷便利（MLF）操作和公开市场逆回购操作的中标利率均下降10个基点。</p><p>在降息消息推动下，上证综指连续两天反弹，17日和18日分别上涨0.58%和0.8%，但恒生指数分别下跌0.68%和0.43%。</p><p>1月17日，彭博经济学家表示，<b>中国央行对一年期中期借贷便利利率的下调幅度大于预期，表明它正着力于为未来的经济提供支撑。 </b></p><p>1月18日，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，国内降息释放出稳增长的积极信号，使得市场信心得到了很大提振，将有利于股市和债市回暖。</p><p>2021年，中国股市表现失色，MSCI中国指数下跌21.72%，而同期MSCI世界指数上涨21.82%。逆势之下，很多海外资管机构仍然对2022年中国资产的表现相对看好。<b>本文梳理了海外资管机构近日对于中国市场在2022年、甚至更长期走势的分析和预测。</b></p><p>一、JP Morgan</p><blockquote><b>海外互联网公司仍可能高度波动，更看好中国A股 </b></blockquote><p>1月1日，JP Morgan在报告中指出，由于房地产和其它行业的新规限制了经济增长，以及能源价格上涨和电力配给不足使中国工业生产的反弹进入逆境，导致中国的增长在去年秋天停滞。2022年的信号好坏参半，但JP Morgan认为，在岸中国股票的积极因素将超过消极因素。</p><p>“中国在MSCI新兴市场指数中的权重可能从35%上升到45%，因为有更多的在岸公司被纳入该指数。</p><p>出于这个原因，并考虑到中国数量巨大的中产阶级正在崛起，我们仍然相信中国的长期机会引人注目。尽管2021年监管导致股市波动，但2021年的风险资本流入数量明确显示，私人投资者认为中国监管机构不会永久地削弱许多大型民营企业的长期前景。</p><p>数据显示，这些私人投资者倾向于关注医疗保健、必需消费品、保险等在中国股票市场中代表性不足的行业。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59e96d498f3147141cee5035f47175cb\" tg-width=\"543\" tg-height=\"357\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>二、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HSBC\">汇丰</a>银行</p><blockquote><b>中国股市估值仍具吸引力，看好日常消费、能源和公用事业</b></blockquote><p>1月5日，汇丰银行发布报告，截至2021年11月底，中国在岸股票的市盈率约为18倍，而由于近期的抛售，离岸股票的市盈率回落至14倍。两组数字远低于标普500指数的23倍。根据《巴伦周刊》近日的报道，自11月以来，汇丰将中国股票的立场提高到超配。</p><p>2022年，汇丰银行对中国11个行业和板块进行了评级，其中日常消费、能源、信息科技和公用事业四个板块获得了正面评级。<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/644a5f2be719d7a7078239ce597cd767\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"1282\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>备注︰汇丰<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/B73.SI\">环球投资</a>管理离岸中国股票团队的行业观点：「+」=正面、「–」=负面、「O」=中性</p><p>三、先锋领航基金</p><blockquote><b>未来十年，中国股市将跑赢美股</b></blockquote><p>1月6日，先锋领航投资策略及研究部亚太区首席经济学家王黔博士表示，长远来看，鉴于中性利率的结构性走低、政策支持减少和部分市场估值过高的背景下，先锋领航对于全球资产的长期回报前景持更为谨慎的态度，而从全球范围内的低回报环境来看，<b>中国资产对于全球投资者将相对更具吸引力。</b></p><p>“就全球股市而言，我们估算未来十年中国股市的预期年化回报约为6.5%，略高于去年的6.3%，而中国之外的全球股市年化回报仅为4.3%，主要是受美国股市的拖累。我们预计未来十年美国股市平均年回报只有3%左右，在美国之外全球市场回报率大约为6%，也略低于中国。此外，我们还预计成长股会跑输价值股，大盘股会跑输小盘股。”</p><p>就全球固定收益市场而言，先锋领航的预期回报也仍然低迷，它预计中国的债市预期回报约3.1%，远高于其他市场的1.8%。</p><p>四、美国<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">道富银行</a></p><blockquote><b>中国的股票市场被结构性地低估了 </b></blockquote><p>道富银行在年末的市场展望中指出，2021年，中国的经济放缓、零Covid策略和监管干预导致了许多负面新闻。从投资的角度，需要超越这些消息，看到中国的基本趋势。“我们相信，中国资产仍然具有吸引力。同时我们认为，中国市场需要一种不同的评估方法。<b>投资者应该考虑对中国资产采用更加积极的策略，并扩充来自中国的投资组合</b>。”</p><p>道富银行认为，投资中国的宏观理由仍未改变。中国增长率仍将远高于发达市场，并略高于其他新兴市场。即使中国每年的GDP增长放缓到4%至5%的水平，这也将为企业提供很大的空间，使其收益以有吸引力的速度增长。此外，中国的规模意味着中国公司可以利用更大的国内市场，毕竟，中国的国内经济比所有其他新兴市场国家的经济总和还要大。</p><p>“虽然我们的一些宏观论点是值得商榷的，但我们对自己的核心投资论点很笃定，即<b>中国的股票市场被结构性地低估了。</b>中国股票市场市值是中国GDP的82%，这个比例远远低于任何一个发达市场。我们估计到2025年，在新股发行和当前市场增长的推动下，市值与GDP之比应达到100%。”</p><p>部分国家/地区的巴菲特指标（市值/GDP）：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65da5d2580fb5f014a4c78585e1ac69a\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"332\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>数据来源：道富银行（截至2021年10月29日）</p><p>道富银行还指出，对于全球投资者而言，配置中国资产意味着分散化。“中国的资产与其他市场的相关性非常低。从新冠疫情我们可以看到，中国在多大程度上遵循自己的经济周期和自己的政策重点。与全球金融市场的有限融合也降低了中国与其他市场的相关性。在今天的投资环境中，这样的多样化不可多得。”</p><p>部分国家/地区的股票相关系数：</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c12fccd57c22eff575d201d7d9acb738\" tg-width=\"1000\" tg-height=\"197\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>数据来源：道富银行（根据2004年6月至2021年10月期间的月度数据统计）</p><p>五、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a></p><blockquote><b>亚洲市场中，最看好中国资产</b></blockquote><p>1月10日，贝莱德指出：“比起亚洲（除日本外）的权益资产，我们更好看中国权益资产。我们看好亚洲固收类资产的同时，也认为中国固收类资产的估值尤其具有吸引力。”</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>近期也表示，中国股市在2022年将有更好的表现：“因为市场从重大调整中恢复过来，并过渡到&#39;希望&#39;阶段，市盈率扩张通常会战胜疲软的基本面增长，并推动强劲的股票收益。&#34;</p><p>六、前景虽好，风险尚存</p><p>在市场风险层面，JP Morgan和高盛同时认为，中国实行的对新冠病毒零容忍政策将继续拖累经济增长。而在中国为2022年冬奥会做准备时，反污染政策可能会制约工业生产。</p><p>同时，JP Morgan对中国离岸互联网股票持谨慎态度。因为互联网监管已经是中国长期治理的必要条件，这可能导致这些公司的收入增长下降，合规成本增加，监管事件引起的波动性加大。</p><p>在《巴伦周刊》年底的报道中，华兴证券（香港）研究部宏观及策略研究主管庞溟表示：“我们预计，尽管预期收益会反弹，但2022年的市场情绪将继续拖累中国股市——除非监管压力缓解，中美关系大幅改善。”</p><p>他表示：“在中国股票中，我们更喜欢A股，因为它们的近期监管风险较低，新经济/旧经济部门组合更加平衡，对国内政策推动更加敏感，并降低了美联储紧缩政策的潜在溢出风险。”</p><p>（本文仅供读者参考，并不构成提供或赖以作为投资、会计、法律或税务建议。）</p></body></html>","source":"highlight_huxiu","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中国股市，未来十年将跑赢美股？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中国股市，未来十年将跑赢美股？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-19 10:24 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.huxiu.com/article/491878.html><strong>虎嗅</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>1月17日，中国央行发布消息称，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，当天开展7000亿中期借贷便利（MLF）操作和1000亿公开市场逆回购操作。中期借贷便利（MLF）操作和公开市场逆回购操作的中标利率均下降10个基点。在降息消息推动下，上证综指连续两天反弹，17日和18日分别上涨0.58%和0.8%，但恒生指数分别下跌0.68%和0.43%。1月17日，彭博经济学家表示，中国央行对一年期中期借贷便利利率...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.huxiu.com/article/491878.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318f43ed8a63a383cdbf2c6fed62ee4a","relate_stocks":{"BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4135":"资产管理与托管银行","BK1601":"香港本地股","00005":"汇丰控股","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","GS":"高盛",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","MS":"摩根士丹利","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","STT":"道富银行","BK1231":"综合性银行","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4077":"互动媒体与服务","BK1572":"香港银行股","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","TCEHY":"腾讯控股ADR"},"source_url":"https://www.huxiu.com/article/491878.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2204038810","content_text":"1月17日，中国央行发布消息称，为维护银行体系流动性合理充裕，当天开展7000亿中期借贷便利（MLF）操作和1000亿公开市场逆回购操作。中期借贷便利（MLF）操作和公开市场逆回购操作的中标利率均下降10个基点。在降息消息推动下，上证综指连续两天反弹，17日和18日分别上涨0.58%和0.8%，但恒生指数分别下跌0.68%和0.43%。1月17日，彭博经济学家表示，中国央行对一年期中期借贷便利利率的下调幅度大于预期，表明它正着力于为未来的经济提供支撑。 1月18日，前海开源基金首席经济学家杨德龙表示，国内降息释放出稳增长的积极信号，使得市场信心得到了很大提振，将有利于股市和债市回暖。2021年，中国股市表现失色，MSCI中国指数下跌21.72%，而同期MSCI世界指数上涨21.82%。逆势之下，很多海外资管机构仍然对2022年中国资产的表现相对看好。本文梳理了海外资管机构近日对于中国市场在2022年、甚至更长期走势的分析和预测。一、JP Morgan海外互联网公司仍可能高度波动，更看好中国A股 1月1日，JP Morgan在报告中指出，由于房地产和其它行业的新规限制了经济增长，以及能源价格上涨和电力配给不足使中国工业生产的反弹进入逆境，导致中国的增长在去年秋天停滞。2022年的信号好坏参半，但JP Morgan认为，在岸中国股票的积极因素将超过消极因素。“中国在MSCI新兴市场指数中的权重可能从35%上升到45%，因为有更多的在岸公司被纳入该指数。出于这个原因，并考虑到中国数量巨大的中产阶级正在崛起，我们仍然相信中国的长期机会引人注目。尽管2021年监管导致股市波动，但2021年的风险资本流入数量明确显示，私人投资者认为中国监管机构不会永久地削弱许多大型民营企业的长期前景。数据显示，这些私人投资者倾向于关注医疗保健、必需消费品、保险等在中国股票市场中代表性不足的行业。二、汇丰银行中国股市估值仍具吸引力，看好日常消费、能源和公用事业1月5日，汇丰银行发布报告，截至2021年11月底，中国在岸股票的市盈率约为18倍，而由于近期的抛售，离岸股票的市盈率回落至14倍。两组数字远低于标普500指数的23倍。根据《巴伦周刊》近日的报道，自11月以来，汇丰将中国股票的立场提高到超配。2022年，汇丰银行对中国11个行业和板块进行了评级，其中日常消费、能源、信息科技和公用事业四个板块获得了正面评级。备注︰汇丰环球投资管理离岸中国股票团队的行业观点：「+」=正面、「–」=负面、「O」=中性三、先锋领航基金未来十年，中国股市将跑赢美股1月6日，先锋领航投资策略及研究部亚太区首席经济学家王黔博士表示，长远来看，鉴于中性利率的结构性走低、政策支持减少和部分市场估值过高的背景下，先锋领航对于全球资产的长期回报前景持更为谨慎的态度，而从全球范围内的低回报环境来看，中国资产对于全球投资者将相对更具吸引力。“就全球股市而言，我们估算未来十年中国股市的预期年化回报约为6.5%，略高于去年的6.3%，而中国之外的全球股市年化回报仅为4.3%，主要是受美国股市的拖累。我们预计未来十年美国股市平均年回报只有3%左右，在美国之外全球市场回报率大约为6%，也略低于中国。此外，我们还预计成长股会跑输价值股，大盘股会跑输小盘股。”就全球固定收益市场而言，先锋领航的预期回报也仍然低迷，它预计中国的债市预期回报约3.1%，远高于其他市场的1.8%。四、美国道富银行中国的股票市场被结构性地低估了 道富银行在年末的市场展望中指出，2021年，中国的经济放缓、零Covid策略和监管干预导致了许多负面新闻。从投资的角度，需要超越这些消息，看到中国的基本趋势。“我们相信，中国资产仍然具有吸引力。同时我们认为，中国市场需要一种不同的评估方法。投资者应该考虑对中国资产采用更加积极的策略，并扩充来自中国的投资组合。”道富银行认为，投资中国的宏观理由仍未改变。中国增长率仍将远高于发达市场，并略高于其他新兴市场。即使中国每年的GDP增长放缓到4%至5%的水平，这也将为企业提供很大的空间，使其收益以有吸引力的速度增长。此外，中国的规模意味着中国公司可以利用更大的国内市场，毕竟，中国的国内经济比所有其他新兴市场国家的经济总和还要大。“虽然我们的一些宏观论点是值得商榷的，但我们对自己的核心投资论点很笃定，即中国的股票市场被结构性地低估了。中国股票市场市值是中国GDP的82%，这个比例远远低于任何一个发达市场。我们估计到2025年，在新股发行和当前市场增长的推动下，市值与GDP之比应达到100%。”部分国家/地区的巴菲特指标（市值/GDP）：数据来源：道富银行（截至2021年10月29日）道富银行还指出，对于全球投资者而言，配置中国资产意味着分散化。“中国的资产与其他市场的相关性非常低。从新冠疫情我们可以看到，中国在多大程度上遵循自己的经济周期和自己的政策重点。与全球金融市场的有限融合也降低了中国与其他市场的相关性。在今天的投资环境中，这样的多样化不可多得。”部分国家/地区的股票相关系数：数据来源：道富银行（根据2004年6月至2021年10月期间的月度数据统计）五、贝莱德亚洲市场中，最看好中国资产1月10日，贝莱德指出：“比起亚洲（除日本外）的权益资产，我们更好看中国权益资产。我们看好亚洲固收类资产的同时，也认为中国固收类资产的估值尤其具有吸引力。”高盛近期也表示，中国股市在2022年将有更好的表现：“因为市场从重大调整中恢复过来，并过渡到'希望'阶段，市盈率扩张通常会战胜疲软的基本面增长，并推动强劲的股票收益。\"六、前景虽好，风险尚存在市场风险层面，JP Morgan和高盛同时认为，中国实行的对新冠病毒零容忍政策将继续拖累经济增长。而在中国为2022年冬奥会做准备时，反污染政策可能会制约工业生产。同时，JP Morgan对中国离岸互联网股票持谨慎态度。因为互联网监管已经是中国长期治理的必要条件，这可能导致这些公司的收入增长下降，合规成本增加，监管事件引起的波动性加大。在《巴伦周刊》年底的报道中，华兴证券（香港）研究部宏观及策略研究主管庞溟表示：“我们预计，尽管预期收益会反弹，但2022年的市场情绪将继续拖累中国股市——除非监管压力缓解，中美关系大幅改善。”他表示：“在中国股票中，我们更喜欢A股，因为它们的近期监管风险较低，新经济/旧经济部门组合更加平衡，对国内政策推动更加敏感，并降低了美联储紧缩政策的潜在溢出风险。”（本文仅供读者参考，并不构成提供或赖以作为投资、会计、法律或税务建议。）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1336,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694144293,"gmtCreate":1641885256908,"gmtModify":1641885256908,"author":{"id":"3495599831980327","authorId":"3495599831980327","name":"紫杉资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1a3aa056310b0439063c666eaa1d72","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495599831980327","authorIdStr":"3495599831980327"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"文章不错，转给大家看看","listText":"文章不错，转给大家看看","text":"文章不错，转给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694144293","repostId":"694124850","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":694124850,"gmtCreate":1641874379365,"gmtModify":1641878578261,"author":{"id":"3468322318173915","authorId":"3468322318173915","name":"阳光财经","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae4ab676f150a8d357cb5f3e4956d1a0","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3468322318173915","authorIdStr":"3468322318173915"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"\n \n \n  美股分析：惊！大盘出现见顶信号——标题党。\n 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>&nbsp;历史时刻的见证者！又熔断了，，美股牛市彻底结束了！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a>&nbsp;历史时刻的见证者！又熔断了，，美股牛市彻底结束了！","text":"$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 历史时刻的见证者！又熔断了，，美股牛市彻底结束了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/965246304","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":426481,"gmtCreate":1552486742568,"gmtModify":1704792686042,"author":{"id":"3495599831980327","authorId":"3495599831980327","name":"紫杉资本","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b1a3aa056310b0439063c666eaa1d72","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3495599831980327","authorIdStr":"3495599831980327"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/426481","repostId":"426381","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":426381,"gmtCreate":1552485449807,"gmtModify":1704792671760,"author":{"id":"16180209980775","authorId":"16180209980775","name":"九格","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b7351b7dca167cbf31dfae7714bb158","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"16180209980775","authorIdStr":"16180209980775"},"themes":[],"title":"拼多多Q4越亏越多，还是没有击败争议","htmlText":"在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/424058\" target=\"_blank\">财报前瞻</a>里也说过，拼多多$(PDD)$这次预期被瑞银的报告拉得很高。 此前大家都认为它竞争力大不如阿里$(BABA)$，也许能战一战京东$(JD)$，但是淘宝是没戏的，而瑞银却说拼多多数年内可以赶上淘宝，所以市场对本次财报的预期就一下飙升了。 但看股价表现也知道，显然这种胃口没有被满足。 1.用户数据：增速没有明显提升 如图，MAU今年以来环比增速一直在18%附近，12个月活跃买家增速也持续下滑。 一方面，理智的看，体量这么大了还要大涨是不现实的，这并不说明拼多多表现不好。 但是另一方面来说，“用户超高速增长”是拼多多最大的光环，加上瑞银“三年后赶上阿里”的预测，显然这个数据满足不了投资者的胃口。 并且更重要的是，拼多多如今并没有扭亏，如果这就脱离了“高速增长”的轨道，预期是否要大打折扣？ 2.财务数据：营收大涨，但支出也大涨 从收入端来看，无论是年平均消费支出，还是GMV和营收，拼多多都表现良好： 但盈利数据却诉说了另外一个故事： 如上图，事实上拼多多财务失血得厉害。 当然，问题肯定出在成本端。 具体来说，营业成本保持稳定（占营收比例本季度变化不大），“三费”中研发和行政管理支出同样稳定，罪魁祸首是营销支出： 如图，拼多多的营销支出/营收一直保持在惊人的高位，本季度甚至超过了营收。 要知道这并不是电商的常态，即使我们不去对比有自营业务的京东，同样做平台的阿里也从没有过这么夸张的数据。 这就会引发一个非常严肃的疑虑：拼多多的营收增长是不是用补贴换来的？也就是说根本不可持续？ 举个例子来说，大家都知道今年双十一和年货节拼多多主推了iPhone销售，价格相当低廉，并且不是假货（国行带发票）。 但问题是，不断有人爆料说拼多多这个iPhone的价格甚至比华强北的二","listText":"在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/TW/424058\" target=\"_blank\">财报前瞻</a>里也说过，拼多多$(PDD)$这次预期被瑞银的报告拉得很高。 此前大家都认为它竞争力大不如阿里$(BABA)$，也许能战一战京东$(JD)$，但是淘宝是没戏的，而瑞银却说拼多多数年内可以赶上淘宝，所以市场对本次财报的预期就一下飙升了。 但看股价表现也知道，显然这种胃口没有被满足。 1.用户数据：增速没有明显提升 如图，MAU今年以来环比增速一直在18%附近，12个月活跃买家增速也持续下滑。 一方面，理智的看，体量这么大了还要大涨是不现实的，这并不说明拼多多表现不好。 但是另一方面来说，“用户超高速增长”是拼多多最大的光环，加上瑞银“三年后赶上阿里”的预测，显然这个数据满足不了投资者的胃口。 并且更重要的是，拼多多如今并没有扭亏，如果这就脱离了“高速增长”的轨道，预期是否要大打折扣？ 2.财务数据：营收大涨，但支出也大涨 从收入端来看，无论是年平均消费支出，还是GMV和营收，拼多多都表现良好： 但盈利数据却诉说了另外一个故事： 如上图，事实上拼多多财务失血得厉害。 当然，问题肯定出在成本端。 具体来说，营业成本保持稳定（占营收比例本季度变化不大），“三费”中研发和行政管理支出同样稳定，罪魁祸首是营销支出： 如图，拼多多的营销支出/营收一直保持在惊人的高位，本季度甚至超过了营收。 要知道这并不是电商的常态，即使我们不去对比有自营业务的京东，同样做平台的阿里也从没有过这么夸张的数据。 这就会引发一个非常严肃的疑虑：拼多多的营收增长是不是用补贴换来的？也就是说根本不可持续？ 举个例子来说，大家都知道今年双十一和年货节拼多多主推了iPhone销售，价格相当低廉，并且不是假货（国行带发票）。 但问题是，不断有人爆料说拼多多这个iPhone的价格甚至比华强北的二","text":"在财报前瞻里也说过，拼多多$(PDD)$这次预期被瑞银的报告拉得很高。 此前大家都认为它竞争力大不如阿里$(BABA)$，也许能战一战京东$(JD)$，但是淘宝是没戏的，而瑞银却说拼多多数年内可以赶上淘宝，所以市场对本次财报的预期就一下飙升了。 但看股价表现也知道，显然这种胃口没有被满足。 1.用户数据：增速没有明显提升 如图，MAU今年以来环比增速一直在18%附近，12个月活跃买家增速也持续下滑。 一方面，理智的看，体量这么大了还要大涨是不现实的，这并不说明拼多多表现不好。 但是另一方面来说，“用户超高速增长”是拼多多最大的光环，加上瑞银“三年后赶上阿里”的预测，显然这个数据满足不了投资者的胃口。 并且更重要的是，拼多多如今并没有扭亏，如果这就脱离了“高速增长”的轨道，预期是否要大打折扣？ 2.财务数据：营收大涨，但支出也大涨 从收入端来看，无论是年平均消费支出，还是GMV和营收，拼多多都表现良好： 但盈利数据却诉说了另外一个故事： 如上图，事实上拼多多财务失血得厉害。 当然，问题肯定出在成本端。 具体来说，营业成本保持稳定（占营收比例本季度变化不大），“三费”中研发和行政管理支出同样稳定，罪魁祸首是营销支出： 如图，拼多多的营销支出/营收一直保持在惊人的高位，本季度甚至超过了营收。 要知道这并不是电商的常态，即使我们不去对比有自营业务的京东，同样做平台的阿里也从没有过这么夸张的数据。 这就会引发一个非常严肃的疑虑：拼多多的营收增长是不是用补贴换来的？也就是说根本不可持续？ 举个例子来说，大家都知道今年双十一和年货节拼多多主推了iPhone销售，价格相当低廉，并且不是假货（国行带发票）。 但问题是，不断有人爆料说拼多多这个iPhone的价格甚至比华强北的二","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/affccd2c5481bd4e407efe08e6ae6a7e"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/74cb4f66f8e3621a45914bb629ed079b"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/44475334abca367003957d54488632bd"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/426381","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":10,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}