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苦涩的沙
2021-06-08
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券商下半年投资策略陆续出台 绩优成长赛道仍是最佳布局领域
苦涩的沙
2021-06-08
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上半年A股市场即将收官,有多家券商在近日纷纷发布了针对下半年的投资策略展望,其中,中信证券认为,A股已步入共振上行期,其中四季度的空间更大;东方证券表示,A股市场将从流动性市场向业绩市场过度,股市仍将震荡上行;中信建投的态度则是,成长股在经济下行的环境中将表现优异,短期景气和行业的长期增长将成为超额收益的源泉。","content":"<html><body><div>\n<blockquote>\n<p>投资研报</p>\n<p>又一半导体材料龙头被挖出!产品持续处于超产状态,机构高呼隐藏王者正向全球龙头迈进,新产能投放在即,价值正面临重估</p>\n<p>中国宠物市场量价齐升,万亿“宠物经济”市场又有新王者诞生?宠物护理第一股市占率遥遥领先,产能瓶颈也即将突破</p>\n<p>2000亿“南帝”突然跌停!32亿杠杆资金遭闷杀(附解读医药低位逻辑变化受益股)</p>\n<p>半导体王者归来:下半年买什么?电子行业9大核心赛道受益股全梳理(名单)</p>\n</blockquote><p><span> 券商下半年投资策略陆续出台,绩优成长赛道仍是最佳布局领域</span></p>\n<p><span> 来源: 证券市场红周刊 </span></p>\n<p><span> 原创 红刊社</span></p>\n<p><span> 记者 | 刘增禄</span></p>\n<p> 上半年A股市场即将收官,有多家券商在近日纷纷发布了针对下半年的投资策略展望,其中,<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a></span><span></span>认为,A股已步入共振上行期,其中四季度的空间更大;<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">东方证券</a></span><span></span>表示,A股市场将从流动性市场向业绩市场过度,股市仍将震荡上行;<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601066\">中信建投</a></span><span></span>的态度则是,成长股在经济下行的环境中将表现优异,短期景气和行业的长期增长将成为超额收益的源泉。</p>\n<p> 券商建议下半年配置成长赛道板块</p>\n<p> 对于通胀,多数机构认为,通胀在三季度阴霾渐散,流动性预期修复,成长类板块相对盈利趋势明显占优。在此基础上,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>认为,三季度可以强化成长配置,建议继续关注更多由产业空间带来实质空间和估值弹性的成长板块。细分领域中,成长类制造板块建议关注新能源、科技自主可控、国防安全和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>制造;成长类消费板块建议关注化妆品、医美、免税、运动服饰、新型烟草。主题方面,建议关注受益于“碳中和”实施纲要出台预期的能源安全主题,以及二季报有望超预期且海外不稳定局势催化的国防板块。</p>\n<p> 对于四季度,中信证券除了建议继续坚持成长股的配置,还表示在全球经济共振复苏下,国内居民可支配收入和非房信贷增速提升将驱动可选消费复苏,这将成为经济增长的新亮点,且景气持续有望到明年上半年。此时可以配置电商,线上销售占比较高的品牌服饰、美妆日化等品类和传统的可选耐用品,如家电、汽车、消费电子等板块。</p>\n<p> 对于下半年成长板块的布局,中信建投也给出了类似的观点,认为成长股在经济下行的环境中将表现更优。建议布局医药、人工智能、新能源及新能源汽车板块。随着人口老龄化和人类健康需求的提高,生物医药行业空间大,具备良好的持续盈利能力;人工智能能够解决更多问题,也是未来发展的重要方向,人工智能行业未来5年复合增速预计为26.2%,中国人工智能复合增速预计为44.5%,属于长坡厚雪的赛道。而在“碳中和”背景下,新能源汽车、光伏等行业具有广阔的成长空间,新能源汽车在未来15年的长期复合增速预计在22%~32%之间,光伏行业装机量复合增速也在25%左右的水平。</p>\n<p> 另外,从2016~2020年开始,以茅台为代表的白马蓝筹股获得了显著的收益,背后本质的原因是收入、利润和现金流的稳定透明,在估值的时候获得了较大的溢价。中信建投认为,从生命周期角度来看,这些公司因为有更长的持续时间,从而拥有较大的终值,也可以认为是较长的久期。因此,下半年也仍看好白酒为代表的消费赛道的长期投资机会。</p>\n<p> 资金提前布局券商看好标的</p>\n<p> 对于券商们看好的领域,近期机构资金已经开始有所布局,比如新能源汽车概念股<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300450\">先导智能</a></span><span></span>,在4月26日~6月4日期间,公司在大宗交易平台累计完成了34笔交易,合计成交额10.68亿元,其中只有一笔2.2万股涉及金额207.46万元的交易为机构资金卖出,而其余10.66亿元的交易全部被机构资金买进。</p>\n<p> 观察先导智能今年首季的业绩表现,2.01亿元的净利润额较上年同期大幅增长了112.97%,身为全球领先的新能源装备提供商,在深度绑定全球锂电龙头<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300750\">宁德时代</a></span><span></span>后,先导智能展示出了强劲的发展动能。5月31日晚间,公司披露年内以来已累计中标宁德时代锂电池生产设备约45.47亿元,这无疑将对公司的业绩产生明显的正面利好,有效提高公司收入规模和盈利能力。</p>\n<p> 除了新能源汽车概念股,医药板块也得到了机构资金的大力认可。<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000661\">长春高新</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300122\">智飞生物</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300233\">金城医药</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300482\">万孚生物</a></span><span></span>、<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688321\">微芯生物</a></span><span></span>等公司二季度以来都获得了机构资金的净买入。如5月20日遭遇大股东金磊抛售的长春高新,其减持的412.42万股股份中,就有398.82万股被机构资金买进,斥资高达18.74亿元。类似的,生物制品公司智飞生物被机构资金净买入了8.58亿元;化学制剂公司金城医药,4月份以来发生的18笔大宗交易如数被机构资金接盘,合计买进1.68亿元。</p>\n<p> 另外,观察被机构资金集中持股的<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600519\">贵州茅台</a></span><span></span>,二季度以来也发生了多笔大宗交易且买卖席位均出现过机构的身影,但从机构的买卖金额统计,8笔机构席位卖出的交易合计卖出金额1.86亿元,5笔机构买进的交易合计买进金额3.19亿元。整体来看,贵州茅台在二季度期间获得机构持续增持。</p>\n<p> 表1:机构资金二季度以来净买入额过亿元的公司</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/444/w550h694/20210608/14e0-krhvrxs9248695.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> 下半年市场机会从流动性市场向业绩市场过渡</p>\n<p> 除了赛道板块的推荐,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03958\">东方证券</a>在近日发布的投资策略报告中也指出,市场在经历了流动性的推动后,下半年机会将逐步向业绩市场过度,过渡期中,市场一般以震荡上行为主。目前,Wind 一致盈利预期的全A股2021年归母净利润增速进一步上升至30%。从业绩增速节奏来看,Q1或是本轮增速高点,Q2开始增速逐步下行。ROE角度,2021年Q1全A主要指数的ROE进一步修复,其中净利润率上升对于整体ROE修复的带动最为明显。目前创业板指、沪深300、上证50等主要指数的ROE水平依然在10%以上,如此情况意味着,A股依然拥有较好的投资回报率。</p>\n<p> 其次,国际比较角度,A股具备估值优势:上证综指、沪深300和上证50 的市盈率约为13~15 倍,低于道指和标普500指数。估值和资金面角度,A 股当前估值分化仍在延续:上证50、<span><span>沪深300指数</span><span></span></span><span></span>、创业板指静态估值分位依然处于高位,其他大部分指数的估值分位都处于历史60分位及以下水平。资金方面,随着A股机构化程度的加深,以及居民资产对于权益资产配置比例的扩大,资金也有望继续加速流入A股。配置上,建议布局中长期行业确定性强或者长期业绩维度高增长的公司。</p>\n<p> 观察近期绩优股的市场表现,我们不难发现众多中报大幅预增公司都走出了不俗的升势。一季报业绩增长347.7%的<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002472\">双环传动</a></span><span></span>,今年中期的净利润增速预计高达10966.66%,4月21日业绩一经公布,股价至今已上涨24.91%,而同期大盘只上涨了3.65%。中期继续预增1927.68%的<span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002900\">哈三联</a></span><span></span>,4月28日公告至今股价大幅上涨了90.33%,跑赢了同期大盘85.77个百分点。整体上,在275家中报预喜公司中,预告以来有172只个股跑赢了同期市场均值,占比达62.55%。</p>\n<p> 表2:预告后跑赢大盘30个百分点以上的中报预喜公司</p>\n<div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/finance/crawl/595/w550h845/20210608/6cc9-krhvrxs9248813.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<p> (文中提及个股仅为举例分析,不做买卖建议。)</p>\n<div>\n<span>牛市来了?如何快速上车,金牌投顾服务免费送>></span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读,尽在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>财经APP</div>\n</div>\n<p>责任编辑:杨红卜 </p>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>券商下半年投资策略陆续出台 绩优成长赛道仍是最佳布局领域</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n券商下半年投资策略陆续出台 绩优成长赛道仍是最佳布局领域\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-08 19:38 北京时间 <a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/quanshang/qsyj/2021-06-08/doc-ikqciyzi8487713.shtml><strong>新浪财经综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>投资研报\n又一半导体材料龙头被挖出!产品持续处于超产状态,机构高呼隐藏王者正向全球龙头迈进,新产能投放在即,价值正面临重估\n中国宠物市场量价齐升,万亿“宠物经济”市场又有新王者诞生?宠物护理第一股市占率遥遥领先,产能瓶颈也即将突破\n2000亿“南帝”突然跌停!32亿杠杆资金遭闷杀(附解读医药低位逻辑变化受益股)\n半导体王者归来:下半年买什么?电子行业9大核心赛道受益股全梳理(名单)\n 券商下半年...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/quanshang/qsyj/2021-06-08/doc-ikqciyzi8487713.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fe85c79e7ab0e902548197ca13ca8164","relate_stocks":{"510030":"价值ETF","510050":"上证50ETF","512550":"A50ETF基金","YXI":"ProShares做空FTSE中国50ETF","FXP":"二倍做空富时中国50ETF-ProShares","000300.SH":"沪深300","XPP":"二倍做多富时中国50ETF(ProShares)","000016.SH":"上证50"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/quanshang/qsyj/2021-06-08/doc-ikqciyzi8487713.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2141691202","content_text":"投资研报\n又一半导体材料龙头被挖出!产品持续处于超产状态,机构高呼隐藏王者正向全球龙头迈进,新产能投放在即,价值正面临重估\n中国宠物市场量价齐升,万亿“宠物经济”市场又有新王者诞生?宠物护理第一股市占率遥遥领先,产能瓶颈也即将突破\n2000亿“南帝”突然跌停!32亿杠杆资金遭闷杀(附解读医药低位逻辑变化受益股)\n半导体王者归来:下半年买什么?电子行业9大核心赛道受益股全梳理(名单)\n 券商下半年投资策略陆续出台,绩优成长赛道仍是最佳布局领域\n 来源: 证券市场红周刊 \n 原创 红刊社\n 记者 | 刘增禄\n 上半年A股市场即将收官,有多家券商在近日纷纷发布了针对下半年的投资策略展望,其中,中信证券认为,A股已步入共振上行期,其中四季度的空间更大;东方证券表示,A股市场将从流动性市场向业绩市场过度,股市仍将震荡上行;中信建投的态度则是,成长股在经济下行的环境中将表现优异,短期景气和行业的长期增长将成为超额收益的源泉。\n 券商建议下半年配置成长赛道板块\n 对于通胀,多数机构认为,通胀在三季度阴霾渐散,流动性预期修复,成长类板块相对盈利趋势明显占优。在此基础上,中信证券认为,三季度可以强化成长配置,建议继续关注更多由产业空间带来实质空间和估值弹性的成长板块。细分领域中,成长类制造板块建议关注新能源、科技自主可控、国防安全和智能制造;成长类消费板块建议关注化妆品、医美、免税、运动服饰、新型烟草。主题方面,建议关注受益于“碳中和”实施纲要出台预期的能源安全主题,以及二季报有望超预期且海外不稳定局势催化的国防板块。\n 对于四季度,中信证券除了建议继续坚持成长股的配置,还表示在全球经济共振复苏下,国内居民可支配收入和非房信贷增速提升将驱动可选消费复苏,这将成为经济增长的新亮点,且景气持续有望到明年上半年。此时可以配置电商,线上销售占比较高的品牌服饰、美妆日化等品类和传统的可选耐用品,如家电、汽车、消费电子等板块。\n 对于下半年成长板块的布局,中信建投也给出了类似的观点,认为成长股在经济下行的环境中将表现更优。建议布局医药、人工智能、新能源及新能源汽车板块。随着人口老龄化和人类健康需求的提高,生物医药行业空间大,具备良好的持续盈利能力;人工智能能够解决更多问题,也是未来发展的重要方向,人工智能行业未来5年复合增速预计为26.2%,中国人工智能复合增速预计为44.5%,属于长坡厚雪的赛道。而在“碳中和”背景下,新能源汽车、光伏等行业具有广阔的成长空间,新能源汽车在未来15年的长期复合增速预计在22%~32%之间,光伏行业装机量复合增速也在25%左右的水平。\n 另外,从2016~2020年开始,以茅台为代表的白马蓝筹股获得了显著的收益,背后本质的原因是收入、利润和现金流的稳定透明,在估值的时候获得了较大的溢价。中信建投认为,从生命周期角度来看,这些公司因为有更长的持续时间,从而拥有较大的终值,也可以认为是较长的久期。因此,下半年也仍看好白酒为代表的消费赛道的长期投资机会。\n 资金提前布局券商看好标的\n 对于券商们看好的领域,近期机构资金已经开始有所布局,比如新能源汽车概念股先导智能,在4月26日~6月4日期间,公司在大宗交易平台累计完成了34笔交易,合计成交额10.68亿元,其中只有一笔2.2万股涉及金额207.46万元的交易为机构资金卖出,而其余10.66亿元的交易全部被机构资金买进。\n 观察先导智能今年首季的业绩表现,2.01亿元的净利润额较上年同期大幅增长了112.97%,身为全球领先的新能源装备提供商,在深度绑定全球锂电龙头宁德时代后,先导智能展示出了强劲的发展动能。5月31日晚间,公司披露年内以来已累计中标宁德时代锂电池生产设备约45.47亿元,这无疑将对公司的业绩产生明显的正面利好,有效提高公司收入规模和盈利能力。\n 除了新能源汽车概念股,医药板块也得到了机构资金的大力认可。长春高新、智飞生物、金城医药、万孚生物、微芯生物等公司二季度以来都获得了机构资金的净买入。如5月20日遭遇大股东金磊抛售的长春高新,其减持的412.42万股股份中,就有398.82万股被机构资金买进,斥资高达18.74亿元。类似的,生物制品公司智飞生物被机构资金净买入了8.58亿元;化学制剂公司金城医药,4月份以来发生的18笔大宗交易如数被机构资金接盘,合计买进1.68亿元。\n 另外,观察被机构资金集中持股的贵州茅台,二季度以来也发生了多笔大宗交易且买卖席位均出现过机构的身影,但从机构的买卖金额统计,8笔机构席位卖出的交易合计卖出金额1.86亿元,5笔机构买进的交易合计买进金额3.19亿元。整体来看,贵州茅台在二季度期间获得机构持续增持。\n 表1:机构资金二季度以来净买入额过亿元的公司\n\n 下半年市场机会从流动性市场向业绩市场过渡\n 除了赛道板块的推荐,东方证券在近日发布的投资策略报告中也指出,市场在经历了流动性的推动后,下半年机会将逐步向业绩市场过度,过渡期中,市场一般以震荡上行为主。目前,Wind 一致盈利预期的全A股2021年归母净利润增速进一步上升至30%。从业绩增速节奏来看,Q1或是本轮增速高点,Q2开始增速逐步下行。ROE角度,2021年Q1全A主要指数的ROE进一步修复,其中净利润率上升对于整体ROE修复的带动最为明显。目前创业板指、沪深300、上证50等主要指数的ROE水平依然在10%以上,如此情况意味着,A股依然拥有较好的投资回报率。\n 其次,国际比较角度,A股具备估值优势:上证综指、沪深300和上证50 的市盈率约为13~15 倍,低于道指和标普500指数。估值和资金面角度,A 股当前估值分化仍在延续:上证50、沪深300指数、创业板指静态估值分位依然处于高位,其他大部分指数的估值分位都处于历史60分位及以下水平。资金方面,随着A股机构化程度的加深,以及居民资产对于权益资产配置比例的扩大,资金也有望继续加速流入A股。配置上,建议布局中长期行业确定性强或者长期业绩维度高增长的公司。\n 观察近期绩优股的市场表现,我们不难发现众多中报大幅预增公司都走出了不俗的升势。一季报业绩增长347.7%的双环传动,今年中期的净利润增速预计高达10966.66%,4月21日业绩一经公布,股价至今已上涨24.91%,而同期大盘只上涨了3.65%。中期继续预增1927.68%的哈三联,4月28日公告至今股价大幅上涨了90.33%,跑赢了同期大盘85.77个百分点。整体上,在275家中报预喜公司中,预告以来有172只个股跑赢了同期市场均值,占比达62.55%。\n 表2:预告后跑赢大盘30个百分点以上的中报预喜公司\n\n 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