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帅到常笑醒

01-18

已渲染完毕该轮到HR登场了

京东：三年收入超百万不算啥，有小哥三年收入超200万

帅到常笑醒

2021-09-22

嗯，已经走了十多年的独立行情了

抱歉，原内容已删除

帅到常笑醒

2021-07-07

$知乎(ZH)$人家涉及信息安全被审查。你一个编故事的也跟着增热度

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2020-11-25

$老虎证券(TIGR)$大家用脚投票

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2020-11-25

$老虎证券(TIGR)$果不其然

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2020-09-02

$老虎证券(TIGR)$真是跌到怀疑人生

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2020-09-01

$老虎证券(TIGR)$这样有些说不过去了，在这里的朋友都是通过老虎证券来到美股的，大家也是建立在对老虎的信任基础上才反过来购买老虎的股票。但是股价一直这样低迷下去会寒了大伙的心啊！

帅到常笑醒

2020-08-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$如果是这样，我们又何必期待财报的增长呢

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2020-08-20

$老虎证券(TIGR)$财报好有错吗？财报好有罪吗？财报好就非得跌成这等熊样吗？

帅到常笑醒

2020-08-05

$老虎证券(TIGR)$和富途的市值相差6倍！他俩有这么大的差距吗？

帅到常笑醒

2019-11-29

$三倍做多天然气ETN(VelocityShares)(UGAZ)$关键是做多这边创新低了，做空那边也没创新高啊。这种etf确实坑

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2019-10-16

$趣头条(QTT)$还有坚持✊的吗？

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2019-06-18

$趣头条(QTT)$ 有比惨的吗

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2019-06-10

$Beyond Meat Inc.(BYND)$ 都说国外的素食者很极端，看来不是空穴来朝啊！

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2019-04-16

$富途控股(FHL)$这算是水涨船高吗

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2019-04-12

$如涵控股(RUHN)$网红要卸妆啦……

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2019-04-04

$如涵控股(RUHN)$ 该熔断了吧

帅到常笑醒

2019-04-03

$如涵控股(RUHN)$ [喷血][喷血]380

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2019-03-26

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 所有中概股的游资都集中到老虎上了

帅到常笑醒

2019-03-21

$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 流通市值1.39亿，今日成交量5900万，将近一半的流通市值了。昨天那么多的虎友中签，看来今天是要我们交出筹码的节奏啊！

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21:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"中金：美国冲击有限，中国资产将走出独立行情","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151764050","media":"中金点睛","summary":"中国利率可能保持下行趋势，未必跟随美债利率上行。","content":"<p>作者： 李昭、杨晓卿、王汉锋</p>\n<p><b>9月FOMC会议于21-22日召开，重点关注散点图和Taper信号：</b>6月份散点图中位数显示2022年不加息，2023年加2次息。从散点图分布特征看，9月份散点图的加息预期中位数上移的可能性不小：在18名联储官员中，只需要1名联储官员上调加息预期，就可以推高2023年的政策利率预期中位数；2名联储官员上调加息预期，可以推高2022年的政策利率预期中位数。</p>\n<p><b>图表：2021年6月份散点图中位数显示2022年不加息，2023年加2次息</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e10a17b7a4e82f1521a7aca46de998a4\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg ，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p><b>图表：期货市场隐含美联储加息次数</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/452c768f346757c4f4ad0dcd9a318bb3\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>联邦基金期货价格显示美联储2022年加息0.8次，2023年加息2.2次，说明市场已经部分预期了散点图的上移。与此同时，9月份会议将首次公布2024年散点图，目前市场预期2024年美联储加息次数远低于2次。与历史上美联储加息周期对比，我们认为目前<b>市场可能低估了2024年的加息节奏。</b>本次会议的另一大看点是Taper信号。在8月份Jackson Hole全球央行年会上，美联储主席Powell表示“如果未来经济数据符合预期，可以在2021年开始Taper”。我们预期本次会议将继续释放Taper信号，可能把Powell关于Taper的表述写入会议决议，甚至明确提及将很快开始Taper &nbsp;(使用类似“soon”或“in the next &nbsp;meetings”的表述)。由于8月美国就业数据不及预期，并且没有提前引导预期，美联储本次会议官宣Taper的可能性不大；我们预期美联储或将在年底正式宣布Taper。</p>\n<p><b>图表：联邦基金期货市场显示美联储2022年加息0.8次，2023年加息2.2次：市场已经部分反映9月份散点图的上移风险</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e26c3879835ecc8bdd7f28c8eddf7da\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p><b>图表：市场隐含2023年10月到2024年10月间的加息次数仅有1.2次，可能低估美联储的加息节奏</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444dabf073d375565383a44640a7250\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg, 中金公司研究部</p>\n<p><b>美债利率上行可期，中国市场影响有限：</b>我们仍然认为<b>9月份可能是美债利率上行的起点</b>。<b>Taper信号释放推高长端利率，散点图上调风险推高中短端利率。</b>美债利率上行，黄金仍然承担压力。叠加美国债务上限前景的不确定性，海外股票调整风险上升。</p>\n<p>当然，如果近期海外与国内市场波动过大，全球避险情绪抬升，也可能推后美债利率的上行时点，我们会保持密切关注。我们认为<b>美债利率上升可能对中国资产影响有限</b>：中国与美国经济周期目前出现错位，中国资产更可能在本国宏观环境影响下走出独立行情。<b>中国利率可能保持下行趋势，未必跟随美债利率上行。在美股调整以前，只是美债利率上行，可能对A股冲击有限。</b></p>\n<p>我们认为近期中国市场交易的主线是<b>国内政策与流动性，信贷脉冲提供关键线索：</b></p>\n<p>1）股票：信贷脉冲于5月实现触底反弹，由于从信用边际宽松到形成实物工作量需要时间，今年11月后股票指数上涨行情可能更为明朗；</p>\n<p>2）债券：信贷脉冲持续上行，信用扩张需要货币宽松支持，利率仍有下行空间；</p>\n<p>3）商品：受上半年信贷脉冲下行区间影响，可能指数层面维持横盘震荡，内部持续分化。<b>我们对国内资产的排序为债券&gt;商品&gt;股票。</b></p>\n<p><b>图表：过去一周大类资产表现回顾（以美元计价，全收益回报率）</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39f40420d66ba50b2544734beec9c66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 数据截至2021年9月17日。</p>\n<p><b>全球大类资产表现回顾（2021/9/10~9/17）：</b>全球大类资产表现整体排序为<b>中国债券&gt;全球债券&gt;海外股票&gt;国内商品&gt;中国股票，与我们的预判一致。</b></p>\n<p>1）股票中，除日本股市微涨0.3%之外，全球股市周内表现整体较为黯淡。国内方面，8月经济数据显示国内经济内生动能继续放缓，叠加恒大债务事件、监管风险等多因素影响，国内股市本周持续下行。其中，中概股指数受拼多多、京东等电商股拖累，本周收跌-4.9%。海外方面，本周8月美国零售数据超出市场预期，强化市场对于美联储政策收紧预期，美股本周下挫0.5%，欧洲股市下挫1.7%。</p>\n<p>2）债券中，全球信用债&gt;中国信用债&gt;中国利率债&gt;全球利率债，国内、海外利率走势继续分化，与我们在《大类资产配置月报(2021-09): 把握中国市场独立行情》中的预判一致。国内方面，央行9月15日宣布等量续作MLF 6000亿元，17日央行开展7天逆回购500亿元和14天逆回购500亿元，单日净投放900亿元，反映央行在季末税期走款、地方债发行量边际抬升等因素扰动下对于流动性的持续呵护，十年期国债利率在本周后期转而下行2bps。国内信用债方面，本周恒大地产债务风险引发市场关注，带动国内信用利差大幅走阔，2年期AA级企业债信用利差周内扩大8.3%。海外方面，美国8月通胀预期边际缓解，带动十年期美债利率本周回调2.1bps。截至9月17日，美债长端利率月内上行8bps，体现我们在9月初提出的“9月或成美债利率上行起点”观点正在初步兑现。同时，截至9月17日，欧洲利率自9月10日ECB会议之后已经上行8bps，与我们在9月8日发布的《关注欧洲Taper风险》中的预判一致。9月20日后，政策不确定性上升，投资者对系统性风险的担忧加深，全球资产进入risk-off模式，美债利率下调4bps。</p>\n<p>3）商品中，以美元计价，本周CRB指数周内上涨0.8%，南华商品指数周内收跌2.0%，而内部品种分化延续。其中，受欧洲能源危机、OPEC上调今明两年石油需求预期影响，能源上涨3.2%，原油上涨3.3%；而智利铜矿劳工紧张局势缓解、国内铜产量回升两方面因素导致铜价周内收跌3.9%。另外，8月美国通胀数据环比首次回落，叠加美国零售数据超预期，对黄金构成下行压力，黄金下跌2.2%，与我们在《流动性潮起潮落，下半年如何布局》中的预判一致。</p>\n<p><b>图表：全球大类资产表现汇总表（以美元计价）</b></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，万得资讯，中金公司研究部&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; *在细分类别中选择了发行时间超过半年，规模较大的基金作为参考。数据截至2021年9月17日。</p>\n<p><b>图表：中国大类资产表现汇总表（以人民币计价）</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb4808e0ad85a96fda9e443a471d3a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，万得资讯，中金公司研究部&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; *在细分类别中选择了发行时间超过半年，规模较大的基金作为参考。数据截至2021年9月17日。</p>\n<p>未来一周市场焦点：1）9月21-22日美联储FOMC议息会议，9月22日BoJ会议，9月23日BoE会议；2）9月26日德国联邦大选；3）美国财年即将结束；国会可能对债务上限问题投票。</p>\n<p><b>图表：最近两周重点经济事件及数据发布计划概览</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67204f5961454532d9e09360d6e62529\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>中金：美国冲击有限，中国资产将走出独立行情</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n中金：美国冲击有限，中国资产将走出独立行情\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1012212489\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b16ed39660b4e0c835afdaf1c94aa75);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">中金点睛 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-09-22 21:07</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>作者： 李昭、杨晓卿、王汉锋</p>\n<p><b>9月FOMC会议于21-22日召开，重点关注散点图和Taper信号：</b>6月份散点图中位数显示2022年不加息，2023年加2次息。从散点图分布特征看，9月份散点图的加息预期中位数上移的可能性不小：在18名联储官员中，只需要1名联储官员上调加息预期，就可以推高2023年的政策利率预期中位数；2名联储官员上调加息预期，可以推高2022年的政策利率预期中位数。</p>\n<p><b>图表：2021年6月份散点图中位数显示2022年不加息，2023年加2次息</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e10a17b7a4e82f1521a7aca46de998a4\" tg-width=\"750\" tg-height=\"488\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg ，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p><b>图表：期货市场隐含美联储加息次数</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/452c768f346757c4f4ad0dcd9a318bb3\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"404\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p>联邦基金期货价格显示美联储2022年加息0.8次，2023年加息2.2次，说明市场已经部分预期了散点图的上移。与此同时，9月份会议将首次公布2024年散点图，目前市场预期2024年美联储加息次数远低于2次。与历史上美联储加息周期对比，我们认为目前<b>市场可能低估了2024年的加息节奏。</b>本次会议的另一大看点是Taper信号。在8月份Jackson Hole全球央行年会上，美联储主席Powell表示“如果未来经济数据符合预期，可以在2021年开始Taper”。我们预期本次会议将继续释放Taper信号，可能把Powell关于Taper的表述写入会议决议，甚至明确提及将很快开始Taper &nbsp;(使用类似“soon”或“in the next &nbsp;meetings”的表述)。由于8月美国就业数据不及预期，并且没有提前引导预期，美联储本次会议官宣Taper的可能性不大；我们预期美联储或将在年底正式宣布Taper。</p>\n<p><b>图表：联邦基金期货市场显示美联储2022年加息0.8次，2023年加息2.2次：市场已经部分反映9月份散点图的上移风险</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e26c3879835ecc8bdd7f28c8eddf7da\" tg-width=\"603\" tg-height=\"340\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p>\n<p><b>图表：市场隐含2023年10月到2024年10月间的加息次数仅有1.2次，可能低估美联储的加息节奏</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b444dabf073d375565383a44640a7250\" tg-width=\"727\" tg-height=\"456\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg, 中金公司研究部</p>\n<p><b>美债利率上行可期，中国市场影响有限：</b>我们仍然认为<b>9月份可能是美债利率上行的起点</b>。<b>Taper信号释放推高长端利率，散点图上调风险推高中短端利率。</b>美债利率上行，黄金仍然承担压力。叠加美国债务上限前景的不确定性，海外股票调整风险上升。</p>\n<p>当然，如果近期海外与国内市场波动过大，全球避险情绪抬升，也可能推后美债利率的上行时点，我们会保持密切关注。我们认为<b>美债利率上升可能对中国资产影响有限</b>：中国与美国经济周期目前出现错位，中国资产更可能在本国宏观环境影响下走出独立行情。<b>中国利率可能保持下行趋势，未必跟随美债利率上行。在美股调整以前，只是美债利率上行，可能对A股冲击有限。</b></p>\n<p>我们认为近期中国市场交易的主线是<b>国内政策与流动性，信贷脉冲提供关键线索：</b></p>\n<p>1）股票：信贷脉冲于5月实现触底反弹，由于从信用边际宽松到形成实物工作量需要时间，今年11月后股票指数上涨行情可能更为明朗；</p>\n<p>2）债券：信贷脉冲持续上行，信用扩张需要货币宽松支持，利率仍有下行空间；</p>\n<p>3）商品：受上半年信贷脉冲下行区间影响，可能指数层面维持横盘震荡，内部持续分化。<b>我们对国内资产的排序为债券&gt;商品&gt;股票。</b></p>\n<p><b>图表：过去一周大类资产表现回顾（以美元计价，全收益回报率）</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c39f40420d66ba50b2544734beec9c66\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"390\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 数据截至2021年9月17日。</p>\n<p><b>全球大类资产表现回顾（2021/9/10~9/17）：</b>全球大类资产表现整体排序为<b>中国债券&gt;全球债券&gt;海外股票&gt;国内商品&gt;中国股票，与我们的预判一致。</b></p>\n<p>1）股票中，除日本股市微涨0.3%之外，全球股市周内表现整体较为黯淡。国内方面，8月经济数据显示国内经济内生动能继续放缓，叠加恒大债务事件、监管风险等多因素影响，国内股市本周持续下行。其中，中概股指数受拼多多、京东等电商股拖累，本周收跌-4.9%。海外方面，本周8月美国零售数据超出市场预期，强化市场对于美联储政策收紧预期，美股本周下挫0.5%，欧洲股市下挫1.7%。</p>\n<p>2）债券中，全球信用债&gt;中国信用债&gt;中国利率债&gt;全球利率债，国内、海外利率走势继续分化，与我们在《大类资产配置月报(2021-09): 把握中国市场独立行情》中的预判一致。国内方面，央行9月15日宣布等量续作MLF 6000亿元，17日央行开展7天逆回购500亿元和14天逆回购500亿元，单日净投放900亿元，反映央行在季末税期走款、地方债发行量边际抬升等因素扰动下对于流动性的持续呵护，十年期国债利率在本周后期转而下行2bps。国内信用债方面，本周恒大地产债务风险引发市场关注，带动国内信用利差大幅走阔，2年期AA级企业债信用利差周内扩大8.3%。海外方面，美国8月通胀预期边际缓解，带动十年期美债利率本周回调2.1bps。截至9月17日，美债长端利率月内上行8bps，体现我们在9月初提出的“9月或成美债利率上行起点”观点正在初步兑现。同时，截至9月17日，欧洲利率自9月10日ECB会议之后已经上行8bps，与我们在9月8日发布的《关注欧洲Taper风险》中的预判一致。9月20日后，政策不确定性上升，投资者对系统性风险的担忧加深，全球资产进入risk-off模式，美债利率下调4bps。</p>\n<p>3）商品中，以美元计价，本周CRB指数周内上涨0.8%，南华商品指数周内收跌2.0%，而内部品种分化延续。其中，受欧洲能源危机、OPEC上调今明两年石油需求预期影响，能源上涨3.2%，原油上涨3.3%；而智利铜矿劳工紧张局势缓解、国内铜产量回升两方面因素导致铜价周内收跌3.9%。另外，8月美国通胀数据环比首次回落，叠加美国零售数据超预期，对黄金构成下行压力，黄金下跌2.2%，与我们在《流动性潮起潮落，下半年如何布局》中的预判一致。</p>\n<p><b>图表：全球大类资产表现汇总表（以美元计价）</b></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，万得资讯，中金公司研究部&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; *在细分类别中选择了发行时间超过半年，规模较大的基金作为参考。数据截至2021年9月17日。</p>\n<p><b>图表：中国大类资产表现汇总表（以人民币计价）</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5bb4808e0ad85a96fda9e443a471d3a2\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"749\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，万得资讯，中金公司研究部&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; *在细分类别中选择了发行时间超过半年，规模较大的基金作为参考。数据截至2021年9月17日。</p>\n<p>未来一周市场焦点：1）9月21-22日美联储FOMC议息会议，9月22日BoJ会议，9月23日BoE会议；2）9月26日德国联邦大选；3）美国财年即将结束；国会可能对债务上限问题投票。</p>\n<p><b>图表：最近两周重点经济事件及数据发布计划概览</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67204f5961454532d9e09360d6e62529\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"472\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9635eb271432f5c92670ddd7726225b","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151764050","content_text":"作者： 李昭、杨晓卿、王汉锋\n9月FOMC会议于21-22日召开，重点关注散点图和Taper信号：6月份散点图中位数显示2022年不加息，2023年加2次息。从散点图分布特征看，9月份散点图的加息预期中位数上移的可能性不小：在18名联储官员中，只需要1名联储官员上调加息预期，就可以推高2023年的政策利率预期中位数；2名联储官员上调加息预期，可以推高2022年的政策利率预期中位数。\n图表：2021年6月份散点图中位数显示2022年不加息，2023年加2次息\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg ，中金公司研究部\n图表：期货市场隐含美联储加息次数\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n联邦基金期货价格显示美联储2022年加息0.8次，2023年加息2.2次，说明市场已经部分预期了散点图的上移。与此同时，9月份会议将首次公布2024年散点图，目前市场预期2024年美联储加息次数远低于2次。与历史上美联储加息周期对比，我们认为目前市场可能低估了2024年的加息节奏。本次会议的另一大看点是Taper信号。在8月份Jackson Hole全球央行年会上，美联储主席Powell表示“如果未来经济数据符合预期，可以在2021年开始Taper”。我们预期本次会议将继续释放Taper信号，可能把Powell关于Taper的表述写入会议决议，甚至明确提及将很快开始Taper  (使用类似“soon”或“in the next  meetings”的表述)。由于8月美国就业数据不及预期，并且没有提前引导预期，美联储本次会议官宣Taper的可能性不大；我们预期美联储或将在年底正式宣布Taper。\n图表：联邦基金期货市场显示美联储2022年加息0.8次，2023年加息2.2次：市场已经部分反映9月份散点图的上移风险\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部\n图表：市场隐含2023年10月到2024年10月间的加息次数仅有1.2次，可能低估美联储的加息节奏\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg, 中金公司研究部\n美债利率上行可期，中国市场影响有限：我们仍然认为9月份可能是美债利率上行的起点。Taper信号释放推高长端利率，散点图上调风险推高中短端利率。美债利率上行，黄金仍然承担压力。叠加美国债务上限前景的不确定性，海外股票调整风险上升。\n当然，如果近期海外与国内市场波动过大，全球避险情绪抬升，也可能推后美债利率的上行时点，我们会保持密切关注。我们认为美债利率上升可能对中国资产影响有限：中国与美国经济周期目前出现错位，中国资产更可能在本国宏观环境影响下走出独立行情。中国利率可能保持下行趋势，未必跟随美债利率上行。在美股调整以前，只是美债利率上行，可能对A股冲击有限。\n我们认为近期中国市场交易的主线是国内政策与流动性，信贷脉冲提供关键线索：\n1）股票：信贷脉冲于5月实现触底反弹，由于从信用边际宽松到形成实物工作量需要时间，今年11月后股票指数上涨行情可能更为明朗；\n2）债券：信贷脉冲持续上行，信用扩张需要货币宽松支持，利率仍有下行空间；\n3）商品：受上半年信贷脉冲下行区间影响，可能指数层面维持横盘震荡，内部持续分化。我们对国内资产的排序为债券>商品>股票。\n图表：过去一周大类资产表现回顾（以美元计价，全收益回报率）\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部 数据截至2021年9月17日。\n全球大类资产表现回顾（2021/9/10~9/17）：全球大类资产表现整体排序为中国债券>全球债券>海外股票>国内商品>中国股票，与我们的预判一致。\n1）股票中，除日本股市微涨0.3%之外，全球股市周内表现整体较为黯淡。国内方面，8月经济数据显示国内经济内生动能继续放缓，叠加恒大债务事件、监管风险等多因素影响，国内股市本周持续下行。其中，中概股指数受拼多多、京东等电商股拖累，本周收跌-4.9%。海外方面，本周8月美国零售数据超出市场预期，强化市场对于美联储政策收紧预期，美股本周下挫0.5%，欧洲股市下挫1.7%。\n2）债券中，全球信用债>中国信用债>中国利率债>全球利率债，国内、海外利率走势继续分化，与我们在《大类资产配置月报(2021-09): 把握中国市场独立行情》中的预判一致。国内方面，央行9月15日宣布等量续作MLF 6000亿元，17日央行开展7天逆回购500亿元和14天逆回购500亿元，单日净投放900亿元，反映央行在季末税期走款、地方债发行量边际抬升等因素扰动下对于流动性的持续呵护，十年期国债利率在本周后期转而下行2bps。国内信用债方面，本周恒大地产债务风险引发市场关注，带动国内信用利差大幅走阔，2年期AA级企业债信用利差周内扩大8.3%。海外方面，美国8月通胀预期边际缓解，带动十年期美债利率本周回调2.1bps。截至9月17日，美债长端利率月内上行8bps，体现我们在9月初提出的“9月或成美债利率上行起点”观点正在初步兑现。同时，截至9月17日，欧洲利率自9月10日ECB会议之后已经上行8bps，与我们在9月8日发布的《关注欧洲Taper风险》中的预判一致。9月20日后，政策不确定性上升，投资者对系统性风险的担忧加深，全球资产进入risk-off模式，美债利率下调4bps。\n3）商品中，以美元计价，本周CRB指数周内上涨0.8%，南华商品指数周内收跌2.0%，而内部品种分化延续。其中，受欧洲能源危机、OPEC上调今明两年石油需求预期影响，能源上涨3.2%，原油上涨3.3%；而智利铜矿劳工紧张局势缓解、国内铜产量回升两方面因素导致铜价周内收跌3.9%。另外，8月美国通胀数据环比首次回落，叠加美国零售数据超预期，对黄金构成下行压力，黄金下跌2.2%，与我们在《流动性潮起潮落，下半年如何布局》中的预判一致。\n图表：全球大类资产表现汇总表（以美元计价）\n资料来源：Bloomberg，万得资讯，中金公司研究部    *在细分类别中选择了发行时间超过半年，规模较大的基金作为参考。数据截至2021年9月17日。\n图表：中国大类资产表现汇总表（以人民币计价）\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，万得资讯，中金公司研究部    *在细分类别中选择了发行时间超过半年，规模较大的基金作为参考。数据截至2021年9月17日。\n未来一周市场焦点：1）9月21-22日美联储FOMC议息会议，9月22日BoJ会议，9月23日BoE会议；2）9月26日德国联邦大选；3）美国财年即将结束；国会可能对债务上限问题投票。\n图表：最近两周重点经济事件及数据发布计划概览\n\n资料来源：Bloomberg，中金公司研究部","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":971242096,"gmtCreate":1598970563115,"gmtModify":1704220902227,"author":{"id":"3494622145427978","authorId":"3494622145427978","name":"帅到常笑醒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$老虎证券(TIGR)$</a>这样有些说不过去了，在这里的朋友都是通过老虎证券来到美股的，大家也是建立在对老虎的信任基础上才反过来购买老虎的股票。但是股价一直这样低迷下去会寒了大伙的心啊！","listText":"<a 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所有中概股的游资都集中到老虎上了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/444458","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":439007,"gmtCreate":1553179665819,"gmtModify":1704794320730,"author":{"id":"3494622145427978","authorId":"3494622145427978","name":"帅到常笑醒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 流通市值1.39亿，今日成交量5900万，将近一半的流通市值了。昨天那么多的虎友中签，看来今天是要我们交出筹码的节奏啊！","listText":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 流通市值1.39亿，今日成交量5900万，将近一半的流通市值了。昨天那么多的虎友中签，看来今天是要我们交出筹码的节奏啊！","text":"$老虎证券(TIGR)$ 流通市值1.39亿，今日成交量5900万，将近一半的流通市值了。昨天那么多的虎友中签，看来今天是要我们交出筹码的节奏啊！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439007","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":264359699816688,"gmtCreate":1705563387781,"gmtModify":1705563389663,"author":{"id":"3494622145427978","authorId":"3494622145427978","name":"帅到常笑醒","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"已渲染完毕 该轮到HR登场了","listText":"已渲染完毕 该轮到HR登场了","text":"已渲染完毕 该轮到HR登场了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/264359699816688","repostId":"1100553185","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1100553185","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1705562543,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100553185?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-01-18 15:22","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"京东：三年收入超百万不算啥，有小哥三年收入超200万","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100553185","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"目前，京东快递小哥中三年收入超百万的已达近百人。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>“京东黑板报”微信公众号消息，目前，京东快递小哥中三年收入超百万的已达近百人，在广东潮汕地区有小哥三年收入超200万。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66fd908fce53b2f878eca63e37867c7a\" tg-width=\"560\" 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n京东：三年收入超百万不算啥，有小哥三年收入超200万\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-01-18 15:22</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>“京东黑板报”微信公众号消息，目前，京东快递小哥中三年收入超百万的已达近百人，在广东潮汕地区有小哥三年收入超200万。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66fd908fce53b2f878eca63e37867c7a\" tg-width=\"560\" 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