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蒸蛋糕

蒸蛋糕

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IP属地：安徽

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2020-03-28

$华大基因(300676)$这不是房地产公司嘛！

2020-03-24

$波音(BA)$这玩意会跌倒零！

2020-03-16

$道琼斯(.DJI)$三万跌倒两万[晕] [晕] [晕]

2020-03-12

$道琼斯(.DJI)$真没想到新冠是这最后一根稻草[喷血] [喷血] [喷血]

2020-03-04

京东也在搞抢购，网易严选也在搞，麻烦您受累也去骂骂他们

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-02-16

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 嗡嗡嗡，睡不着[哟哟] [哟哟] [哟哟]

2020-02-14

多头弄死他

美银证券上调小米(01810.HK)目标价至9元维持「跑输大市」评级

2020-02-14

应该用的非原装数据线，而且受潮！我的一加已经闪婚两次了！这种明显是线烧了找厂商？？？

小米手机充电时起火售后以未复工为由多日后仍未解决

2020-02-03

$天然气主连(NGmain)$ 冬天快要过了，今年天然气还能涨吗？？？各位大神

2020-02-03

$上证指数(000001.SH)$ ！！！

2020-01-21

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 昨天13.56跑了。睡懒觉了，不然开盘直接跑！感觉会回调一点继续涨吧[黑眼圈]

2020-01-17

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 还能继续持有吗？有点慌

2020-01-15

$小米集团-W(01810)$ 近一周京东k305g销量超v30p，这一波越级打的漂亮啊

2020-01-14

帝国主义亡我之心不死

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-01-13

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 49抛的，亏了百分之四十多！气煞我也

2020-01-08

难得有看得这么清楚的文章，美股的泡沫撑不了多久了！按目前最新数据美国民众的消费能力还是有的，估计可以撑到特朗普连任！也有可能在大选前雪崩，特朗普gg

企业次贷，美股头顶最黑最黑的乌云！

2020-01-04

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 为什么偏偏是周五，周末又让局势缓和了！真的是mmp

2020-01-03

这波高涨是因为美联储给影子银行的五千亿全都流进了股市！

2019-12-27

$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 是时候加仓了吗？

2019-12-27

爱国宣传引发的销量剧增，消费者终究会理性，反噬是迟早的事

华为、小米国内处境两重天，关键时候，核心技术还是很重要的

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美银证券上调小米(01810.HK)目标价至9元 维持「跑输大市」评级","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2010387225","media":"AAFN","summary":"美银证券发表的研究报告指，该行於2月7日与小米集团  的管理层召开电话会议，公司指出新型冠状病毒带来最大的问题是内地生产供应，而物流及零件的影响暂时仍可控，而据第三方数据显示首季内地智能手机出货或按年","content":"<html><body><p>美银证券发表的研究报告指，该行於2月7日与小米集团  的管理层召开电话会议，公司指出新型冠状病毒带来最大的问题是内地生产供应，而物流及零件的影响暂时仍可控，而据第三方数据显示首季内地智能手机出货或按年跌30-35%。小米指出现时库存水平能支撑短期供应，未来会遵循当地政府的隔离政策，并估计可在2月10日逐步复工。公司又指海外市场表现稳定，印度及印尼的供应均是由当地厂房负责，而公司的5G发展路线不变。小米计划在2月13日於线上推出小米10手机，并在今年续推多个新型号。公司留意到相对线下市场，线上市场所受影响较轻微，由於公司主要经营线上业务，虽然物流上暂时有轻微延迟，但公司在湖北外仍继续营运。对於互联网业务方面，客户广告预算等现时仍未清晰；而游戏及电商业务暂时亦未受大影响。该行重申对公司「跑输大市」评级，认为受疫情影响内地需求疲弱，公司或会面对利润降低、零件及经营成本增加等问题，互联网业务亦受广告方面可见性低拖累，该行将公司2020年盈利预测削3%，目标价8.2元升至9元。(el/u)~阿思达克财经新闻网址: www.aastocks.com</p></body></html>","source":"aastocks","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美银证券上调小米(01810.HK)目标价至9元 维持「跑输大市」评级\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-02-10 14:43 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.aastocks.com/apps/data/iphone/news/newscontent.aspx?newsid=NOW.992035&style=5&chgstyle=1&categoryid=stock&width=320&market_id=hk&fontary=3&platform=iPhone&language=sc&isfirstreq=1&sourceid=aafn&datatype=0><strong>AAFN</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美银证券发表的研究报告指，该行於2月7日与小米集团  的管理层召开电话会议，公司指出新型冠状病毒带来最大的问题是内地生产供应，而物流及零件的影响暂时仍可控，而据第三方数据显示首季内地智能手机出货或按年跌30-35%。小米指出现时库存水平能支撑短期供应，未来会遵循当地政府的隔离政策，并估计可在2月10日逐步复工。公司又指海外市场表现稳定，印度及印尼的供应均是由当地厂房负责，而公司的5G发展路线不变。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.aastocks.com/apps/data/iphone/news/newscontent.aspx?newsid=NOW.992035&style=5&chgstyle=1&categoryid=stock&width=320&market_id=hk&fontary=3&platform=iPhone&language=sc&isfirstreq=1&sourceid=aafn&datatype=0\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/537e08ee4cb694b56ef79b75b4b0c349","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"http://www.aastocks.com/apps/data/iphone/news/newscontent.aspx?newsid=NOW.992035&style=5&chgstyle=1&categoryid=stock&width=320&market_id=hk&fontary=3&platform=iPhone&language=sc&isfirstreq=1&sourceid=aafn&datatype=0","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/51f6b9126f36f92bbf92982596066e5a","article_id":"2010387225","content_text":"美银证券发表的研究报告指，该行於2月7日与小米集团  的管理层召开电话会议，公司指出新型冠状病毒带来最大的问题是内地生产供应，而物流及零件的影响暂时仍可控，而据第三方数据显示首季内地智能手机出货或按年跌30-35%。小米指出现时库存水平能支撑短期供应，未来会遵循当地政府的隔离政策，并估计可在2月10日逐步复工。公司又指海外市场表现稳定，印度及印尼的供应均是由当地厂房负责，而公司的5G发展路线不变。小米计划在2月13日於线上推出小米10手机，并在今年续推多个新型号。公司留意到相对线下市场，线上市场所受影响较轻微，由於公司主要经营线上业务，虽然物流上暂时有轻微延迟，但公司在湖北外仍继续营运。对於互联网业务方面，客户广告预算等现时仍未清晰；而游戏及电商业务暂时亦未受大影响。该行重申对公司「跑输大市」评级，认为受疫情影响内地需求疲弱，公司或会面对利润降低、零件及经营成本增加等问题，互联网业务亦受广告方面可见性低拖累，该行将公司2020年盈利预测削3%，目标价8.2元升至9元。(el/u)~阿思达克财经新闻网址: www.aastocks.com","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":917147047,"gmtCreate":1581663838989,"gmtModify":1704344925202,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该用的非原装数据线，而且受潮！我的一加已经闪婚两次了！这种明显是线烧了找厂商？？？","listText":"应该用的非原装数据线，而且受潮！我的一加已经闪婚两次了！这种明显是线烧了找厂商？？？","text":"应该用的非原装数据线，而且受潮！我的一加已经闪婚两次了！这种明显是线烧了找厂商？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/917147047","repostId":"2011716546","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2011716546","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1581656403,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2011716546?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-02-14 13:00","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米手机充电时起火 售后以未复工为由多日后仍未解决","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2011716546","media":"消费者报道","summary":"小米手机充电时起火 售后以未复工为由多日后仍未解决 就高女士的投诉发采访函消费者报道 ■按：“我家差点成了火灾现场。” 2月13日，小米10手机正式对外发布...","content":"<div>\n<p>小米手机充电时起火 售后以未复工为由多日后仍未解决\n　　就高女士的投诉发采访函消费者报道\n\n　　■按：“我家差点成了火灾现场。”\n\n　　2月13日，小米10手机正式对外发布，小米品牌新一代旗舰手机上市发售。然而，就在近日，有消费者通过《消费者报道》的投诉系统，发起针对小米起火自燃的投诉。\n　　北京的高女士表示，自己购买3个月不到的小米MIX 3手机，在充电时手机USB接口冒出火星和黑烟，而小米售后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2020-02-14/doc-iimxyqvz2791810.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina_stock","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>小米手机充电时起火 售后以未复工为由多日后仍未解决</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米手机充电时起火 售后以未复工为由多日后仍未解决\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-02-14 13:00 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2020-02-14/doc-iimxyqvz2791810.shtml><strong>消费者报道</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小米手机充电时起火 售后以未复工为由多日后仍未解决\n　　就高女士的投诉发采访函消费者报道\n\n　　■按：“我家差点成了火灾现场。”\n\n　　2月13日，小米10手机正式对外发布，小米品牌新一代旗舰手机上市发售。然而，就在近日，有消费者通过《消费者报道》的投诉系统，发起针对小米起火自燃的投诉。\n　　北京的高女士表示，自己购买3个月不到的小米MIX 3手机，在充电时手机USB接口冒出火星和黑烟，而小米售后...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2020-02-14/doc-iimxyqvz2791810.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b841f5eda278b95023e7905323fa0be","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2020-02-14/doc-iimxyqvz2791810.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2011716546","content_text":"小米手机充电时起火 售后以未复工为由多日后仍未解决\n　　就高女士的投诉发采访函消费者报道\n\n　　■按：“我家差点成了火灾现场。”\n\n　　2月13日，小米10手机正式对外发布，小米品牌新一代旗舰手机上市发售。然而，就在近日，有消费者通过《消费者报道》的投诉系统，发起针对小米起火自燃的投诉。\n　　北京的高女士表示，自己购买3个月不到的小米MIX 3手机，在充电时手机USB接口冒出火星和黑烟，而小米售后方面以受疫情影响未复工为由回应高女士，问题出现多日后仍未解决相关售后问题。\n　　为此，《消费者报道》就高女士的投诉发送采访函至小米科技有限责任公司，但截至发稿，小米方面并未就此作出回应。\n　　手机在充电时出现明火\n　　2月3日晚，高女士在家中为自己的小米MIX 3手机进行充电。几分钟后，高女士闻到了一股烧焦的味道，随后发现自己的手机出现火星，还有浓烟冒出，并伴有“滋滋滋”的声音。\n　　“幸亏我发现及时，不然我家差点成了火灾现场。”高女士表示，她发现手机起火后，马上断开电源，所幸并未造成人员受伤和其他物品损失。“我当时用的是小米原装的充电器和充电线，不知道为什么会起火。”\n\n▲手机USB接口和充电线接口均有被烧黑的痕迹\n　　高女士告诉本刊，出现火星和冒烟的部位是手机的USB接口位置。从高女士提供的图片来看，手机USB接口和充电线接口均有被烧黑的痕迹。\n　　高女士表示，关于这台手机的情况，自己是去年11月24日在天猫小米官方旗舰店花费2599元购买的，距离出现起火问题时还不到3个月的时间。高女士表示：“我已经不敢再使用这部手机了，不知道什么时候又会着火。”\n　　机主投诉小米售后“踢皮球”\n　　起火问题出现后的第二天，高女士就与小米售后人员进行联系，协商手机起火原因鉴定和退货退款等问题。然而，这一趟售后服务之旅并不顺利。\n　　高女士表示，小米工作人员要求她先将手机寄送至在天津的小米寄修中心进行鉴定。在天津小米寄修中心收到手机后的几天时间内，并没有工作人员联系高女士协商后续事宜。\n▲高女士将手机从北京寄往天津\n　　高女士于是继续与小米客服人员联系，对方表示受疫情影响，天津当地的企业2月10日才会复工。高女士表示，就在她等待小米给出的处理结果时，天津的小米售后人员表示要将手机寄送至成都进行处理。随后，就在当天下午，又有自称郑州当地的小米售后人员致电高女士，表示要将手机从天津寄送到郑州。\n　　高女士表示，她不清楚手机究竟是已经送到了郑州，还是在天津，“我现在都不清楚我的手机究竟在谁的手上”。在她看来，小米应该内部协调好相应的部门来负责售后服务，不应该由消费者来承担相应的代价。\n　　在此期间，小米方面也没有为高女士提供备用机，客服人员让高女士向亲朋好友借闲置手机使用。“这样的售后服务态度和流程，很让我们消费者心寒。”高女士说道。\n▲小米客服称2月10复工，不过至今仍没有工作人员联系高女士处理后续事宜\n　　手机究竟寄送到了哪个售后服务中心？手机是否已经开始进行鉴定？手机起火的原因是什么？手机能否退货退款处理？一番波折之后，这一系列问题高女士仍然没有得到明确的答案。高女士表示：“希望小米尽快解决问题，不要在疫情期间占用宝贵的快递资源，把手机寄来寄去。”\n　　针对高女士的投诉，本刊发函至小米科技有限责任公司进行问询。不过截至发稿，小米方面并未就此作出任何回应。\n　　实际上，作为一部滑盖智能手机，小米MIX 3不时因产品质量问题和售后服务问题被消费者投诉。在黑猫投诉平台上，有多条投诉小米MIX 3出现黑屏、售后人员以没有配件为由拒绝维修手机的帖子。\n▲多位消费者投诉小米MIX 3的屏幕质量问题和售后维修问题\n　　为手机充电时务必随时留意机身温度\n　　有手机检测专家表示，一般来说，外部温度过高、电池内部线路短路、电池过度充电和过度使用等都是手机出现自燃起火的常见原因。\n　　专家提醒消费者，使用手机时应该避免长时间看视频、玩游戏等耗电较多的操作。为手机充电时，最好使用原装充电器，对于声称有快充功能的充电器要谨慎使用。如果在使用手机和为手机充电的过程中机身发热甚至发烫，应及时停止使用手机，并取下手机保护套，让手机得到充分的散热。\n　　另外，使用手机等电子产品时一定要注意防潮防水和远离高温环境，一旦手机出现明火，应及时断开电源，并让专业人士进行检修，切勿擅自对手机进行拆卸处理。\n责任编辑：程立","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":915164763,"gmtCreate":1580744202752,"gmtModify":1704342159534,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NGmain\">$天然气主连(NGmain)$</a>&nbsp;冬天快要过了，今年天然气还能涨吗？？？各位大神","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/NGmain\">$天然气主连(NGmain)$</a>&nbsp;冬天快要过了，今年天然气还能涨吗？？？各位大神","text":"$天然气主连(NGmain)$ 冬天快要过了，今年天然气还能涨吗？？？各位大神","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/915164763","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4558,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3488269349740712","authorId":"3488269349740712","name":"跳清水河","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/36b4c1d84757c3f7594576cd3eb46840","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3488269349740712","idStr":"3488269349740712"},"content":"可以！可以从1.8涨到1.87 [笑哭]","text":"可以！可以从1.8涨到1.87 [笑哭]","html":"可以！可以从1.8涨到1.87 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！！！","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/346ddb461c088a63c8a51d5720c540f9","width":"1125","height":"231"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/915165877","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":916250037,"gmtCreate":1579598175929,"gmtModify":1704339932889,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;昨天13.56跑了。睡懒觉了，不然开盘直接跑！感觉会回调一点继续涨吧[黑眼圈]&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;昨天13.56跑了。睡懒觉了，不然开盘直接跑！感觉会回调一点继续涨吧[黑眼圈]&nbsp;","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 昨天13.56跑了。睡懒觉了，不然开盘直接跑！感觉会回调一点继续涨吧[黑眼圈]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916250037","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2014,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":916326194,"gmtCreate":1579243121818,"gmtModify":1704339400249,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;还能继续持有吗？有点慌","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;还能继续持有吗？有点慌","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 还能继续持有吗？有点慌","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7e5e3fa17cec472cdc397d78964192d","width":"1176","height":"1851"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/916326194","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2042,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3489613815371275","authorId":"3489613815371275","name":"路漫漫其修远兮0","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d22bfef215d3b37d90e97c29da2788d7","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3489613815371275","idStr":"3489613815371275"},"content":"没到发行价都别慌","text":"没到发行价都别慌","html":"没到发行价都别慌"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":918409924,"gmtCreate":1579061988568,"gmtModify":1704338790312,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;近一周京东k305g销量超v30p，这一波越级打的漂亮啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01810\">$小米集团-W(01810)$</a>&nbsp;近一周京东k305g销量超v30p，这一波越级打的漂亮啊","text":"$小米集团-W(01810)$ 近一周京东k305g销量超v30p，这一波越级打的漂亮啊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea17aad9c02a229f10e29276634ffda0","width":"1080","height":"2160"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/918409924","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493291024491772","authorId":"3493291024491772","name":"老大不在家","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf8334597d79297844bc8dafe706ae19","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3493291024491772","idStr":"3493291024491772"},"content":"一个星期才9000，这也太少了吧。","text":"一个星期才9000，这也太少了吧。","html":"一个星期才9000，这也太少了吧。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":918216058,"gmtCreate":1578985555574,"gmtModify":1704338568940,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"帝国主义亡我之心不死","listText":"帝国主义亡我之心不死","text":"帝国主义亡我之心不死","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/918216058","repostId":"918218571","repostType":1,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1198,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":918853491,"gmtCreate":1578909278013,"gmtModify":1704338362958,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>&nbsp;49抛的，亏了百分之四十多！气煞我也","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>&nbsp;49抛的，亏了百分之四十多！气煞我也","text":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 49抛的，亏了百分之四十多！气煞我也","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/918853491","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1181,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911416087,"gmtCreate":1578462906149,"gmtModify":1704337554398,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"难得有看得这么清楚的文章，美股的泡沫撑不了多久了！按目前最新数据美国民众的消费能力还是有的，估计可以撑到特朗普连任！也有可能在大选前雪崩，特朗普gg","listText":"难得有看得这么清楚的文章，美股的泡沫撑不了多久了！按目前最新数据美国民众的消费能力还是有的，估计可以撑到特朗普连任！也有可能在大选前雪崩，特朗普gg","text":"难得有看得这么清楚的文章，美股的泡沫撑不了多久了！按目前最新数据美国民众的消费能力还是有的，估计可以撑到特朗普连任！也有可能在大选前雪崩，特朗普gg","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911416087","repostId":"1181611412","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181611412","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1578462143,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181611412?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-01-08 13:42","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"企业次贷，美股头顶最黑最黑的乌云！","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181611412","media":"财主家的余粮","summary":"2019年的美股，涨涨涨，涨涨涨，涨成了最近20年来表现仅次于2013年的一年（见下表）。\n\n数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心\n\n源头嘛，当然是美联储的春药加持！\n\n2018年9月，美联储信誓","content":"<p><span>2019年的美股，涨涨涨，涨涨涨，涨成了最近20年来表现仅次于2013年的一年（见下表）。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d274abfdf84c3dc183c6386b1c755a69\"><i><span>数据来源：Wind，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>发展研究中心</span></i></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>源头嘛，当然是美联储的春药加持！</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>2018年9月，美联储信誓旦旦告诉大家，美联储的资产负债表缩减处于“自动驾驶模式”，而2019年将加息3次；一直到2018年底，还在死撑着说，2019年至少加息2次，资产负债表依然持续缩减。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>结果呢，美股就上演</span><b><span>“死给你看”</span></b><span>的游戏咯！</span></p>\n<p><span>下图，就是标普500指数2018年以来的走势情况，注意看2018年底的暴跌。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/17d21d1097c1c366e44f6c7277951391\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>一个并没有自己主见的美联储主席鲍威尔，遭到了美国总统数次的羞辱及施压，于是屈服了，2019年初宣布暂停加息，缩表也声称将要在年底终止。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>到了2019年年中，传出了不仅不加息，还要降息的消息；</span></p>\n<p><span>到了2019年8月，传出了不仅降息1次，还要降息2次的消息；</span></p>\n<p><span>到了2019年10月，说至少要降息3次，而且缩表终止；</span></p>\n<p><span>缩表终止还不算，还要重新开启大规模的隔夜回购和两周回购操作，为金融体系注入资金；大规模回购还不够，从2019年10月15日起，美联储每月还要印钞600亿美元购买国债，这一行动至少延续至2020年第二季度；</span></p>\n<p><span>……</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>行行行，美联储你牛你牛你牛，向委内瑞拉央行学习，向津巴布韦央行看齐！</span></p>\n<p><span>反正，你是全球金融市场这个赌场最大的庄家，都特么你说了算好不好！</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>至于美股嘛，涨吧涨吧不是梦！</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>在这些接连不断的印钞消息刺激之下，美股终于创出近20年第二佳的涨幅，丝毫没有辜负美联储和美国总统的悉心呵护与抬轿。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>问题是，2019年的美国经济，其实很不咋地呢——</span></p>\n<p><span><b>前三个季度，美国GDP增长率仅有2.3%，第三季度更是下降到只有1.9%，全年的经济实际增速，预计是等于或低于2.3%，在2020年甚至有下降到2%以下的可能。</b></span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>以这种经济增速，差不多接近衰退边缘了，股市能不跌就不错了，结果还蹭蹭蹭地涨，不靠美联储的春药加持，你说靠什么？</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>还记得我在“三点认知，让你看清当代金融市场”一文中的话么？</span></p>\n<p><b><span>债券、股市和房产，那真是全球各国政府心头永远、永远、永远的最爱啊！</span></b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>你该问了，2020年呢？</span></p>\n<p><span>我怎么知道？你要问美联储呢！</span></p>\n<p><b><span>投资不识美联储，买遍资产也枉然！</span></b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>不过，我倒是看到了美股头顶有一股很黑很黑的乌云，不知道美联储准备拿什么办法来驱散。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a35fe3cb5bee426e6c853a3118a73a19\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>这一朵乌云，是美国企业债务问题。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>从宏观上看，一个国家的实体经济债务，可以分为政府债务（包括地方政府与中央政府）、企业债务和家庭债务。在信用货币体系之下，理论上说，政府债务再高也没问题，大不了让央行开动印钞机，还可以把官方利率定为0甚至是负值（譬如现在的日本和欧洲），所以，政府债务通常不会引发经济突然出现大麻烦。</span></p>\n<p><span>关于各国政府的债务情况，请点击：最新，各国政府到底欠了多少债？</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>但是，企业和家庭债务就不一样了，央行是无能为力的，否则：</span></p>\n<p><b><span>你家欠了债，让央行印钞替你还？</span></b></p>\n<p><b><span>某家企业欠了债，让央行印钞替它还？</span></b></p>\n<p><span>这显然是不行的。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>所以，能够引发经济突然出现大问题的，一定是家庭或者政府债务。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>下面这张图，就是1986年迄今的美国家庭部门债务/GDP的百分比情况。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b58aeb9e090aaff18c9563589399d42b\"></p>\n<p><span>你注意看一下，美国家庭部门的债务，是不是在2007-2008年达到了历史最高水平，并且丧失增长能力？</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>想想2008年的金融危机是由什么引起的？次贷、次贷，可不就是家庭部门的次级房贷问题嘛！</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>现在，经过10多年的去杠杆，美国家庭部门的债务/GDP降到了只有75%的水平，所以目前美国家庭部门的债务，健康得不得了，所以这个没有啥风险。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>那我们再来看企业部门的债务——</span></p>\n<p><span>妈呀，不对劲啊！</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>数据显示，美国企业债务已经从2007年的5万亿美元增加到2019年中期的9.5万亿美元，企业债务占GDP的比例已经达到了历史上经济衰退时的高位（图中灰色柱体为美国经济衰退期）。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05d68cabdff9f5d06a601a4c2a2aa61f\"></p>\n<p><span>和2007-2008年的美国房屋次级贷款问题的根源一样，在这次巨大的债务增加中，主要的增长是BBB级债务(金额超过3.2万亿美元)，这些评级距离垃圾债券也就一步之遥，最最重要的是，这些次级债务的增长也开始停滞……</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b055aa027c45099aea7cf52f2bf435a\"></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>在以往的文章中，我曾多次表达过，美股2017年以来的上涨，几乎完全依赖股票回购，但在2019年以来股票回购额变少的情况下，美国依然创出历史上第二佳的涨幅，只能说，美联储的春药助攻威力巨大。</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6b7e7afe913402206e0911cda2b0623\"></p>\n<p><span>像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>之类的新兴科技公司，盈利能力强大，他们用利润来回购股票，理念上说无可厚非，可也正因为这些公司不断地回购股票，其他很多盈利状况不佳的公司也选择了东施效颦……</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>没有那么多的盈利，怎么来回购股票？</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>发债啊！</span></p>\n<p><span>因为美联储2008年以来实施的超低利率政策和量化宽松政策，公司烂、盈利少都不要紧，发债就可以，而且债券的利率都还能定得很低。就在过去的几年里，众多BBB评级的公司，出售了数万亿美元的债券，并用所得资金回购股票。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>由于2018年下半年以来欧洲和日本央行实施骇人的负利率货币政策，美国这些烂公司的债券收益很低（发行价很高）都有人买，然后这些公司就用这些钱努力维持股票价格以跟上那些大公司的涨幅，结果就是美国BBB级企业债务杠杆接近历史最高水平。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>前几天，新债王Jeff Gundlach说，尽管发行BBB债券的公司拥有BBB评级，但55%的BBB公司实际上应该已经处于垃圾评级，这使得美国BBB级企业债务的违约风险，远比预期的还要高。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>听起来，和2007年次贷危机爆发前的房贷是不是很像？</span></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0773badd543969d2256b453bfafdc0c2\"></p>\n<p><span>近10年来，在家庭部门忙着去杠杆的同时，美股里那些最差劲的公司正忙着加杠杆，目前BBB级企业的债务水平已经接近历史最高水平，一旦利率有个风吹草动，就意味着众多企业债券的违约和崩盘。</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>嗯，驱散这段围绕在美国经济上空最黑最黑的乌云——</span></p>\n<p><b><span>又要靠美联储了！</span></b></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>美联储主席鲍威尔在2019年10月降息的时候还腆着脸说，这是“加息周期中的降息”——意思是说，他2020年还要加息呢！</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>可我要说，你全特么是放屁！</span></p>\n<p><span>如果你真的敢稍稍加息，这些企业债券就会像2007-2008年的次级房贷一样崩盘！至少，为了维持住美股不暴跌，2020年你根本不可能会考虑加息这个选项！</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>2020年，你不仅不会加息，如果这些企业次级债券稍稍出点儿问题，说不定，你还会再次选择降息，甚至，在下半年再来一轮大规模的QE！</span></p>\n<p></p>\n<p><span>就你们央行这点儿尿性，谁还不知道呢，装什么大尾巴狼！</span></p>","source":"wqqq","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>企业次贷，美股头顶最黑最黑的乌云！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n企业次贷，美股头顶最黑最黑的乌云！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-01-08 13:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UI5e6VvHP2wDnocuVCZ-mw><strong>财主家的余粮</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2019年的美股，涨涨涨，涨涨涨，涨成了最近20年来表现仅次于2013年的一年（见下表）。\n\n数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心\n\n源头嘛，当然是美联储的春药加持！\n\n2018年9月，美联储信誓旦旦告诉大家，美联储的资产负债表缩减处于“自动驾驶模式”，而2019年将加息3次；一直到2018年底，还在死撑着说，2019年至少加息2次，资产负债表依然持续缩减。\n\n结果呢，美股就上演“死给你看”的...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UI5e6VvHP2wDnocuVCZ-mw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5d1fe578ee46cbe0d24c33435ff25ae5","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/UI5e6VvHP2wDnocuVCZ-mw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181611412","content_text":"2019年的美股，涨涨涨，涨涨涨，涨成了最近20年来表现仅次于2013年的一年（见下表）。\n\n数据来源：Wind，广发证券发展研究中心\n\n源头嘛，当然是美联储的春药加持！\n\n2018年9月，美联储信誓旦旦告诉大家，美联储的资产负债表缩减处于“自动驾驶模式”，而2019年将加息3次；一直到2018年底，还在死撑着说，2019年至少加息2次，资产负债表依然持续缩减。\n\n结果呢，美股就上演“死给你看”的游戏咯！\n下图，就是标普500指数2018年以来的走势情况，注意看2018年底的暴跌。\n\n\n一个并没有自己主见的美联储主席鲍威尔，遭到了美国总统数次的羞辱及施压，于是屈服了，2019年初宣布暂停加息，缩表也声称将要在年底终止。\n\n到了2019年年中，传出了不仅不加息，还要降息的消息；\n到了2019年8月，传出了不仅降息1次，还要降息2次的消息；\n到了2019年10月，说至少要降息3次，而且缩表终止；\n缩表终止还不算，还要重新开启大规模的隔夜回购和两周回购操作，为金融体系注入资金；大规模回购还不够，从2019年10月15日起，美联储每月还要印钞600亿美元购买国债，这一行动至少延续至2020年第二季度；\n……\n\n行行行，美联储你牛你牛你牛，向委内瑞拉央行学习，向津巴布韦央行看齐！\n反正，你是全球金融市场这个赌场最大的庄家，都特么你说了算好不好！\n\n至于美股嘛，涨吧涨吧不是梦！\n\n在这些接连不断的印钞消息刺激之下，美股终于创出近20年第二佳的涨幅，丝毫没有辜负美联储和美国总统的悉心呵护与抬轿。\n\n问题是，2019年的美国经济，其实很不咋地呢——\n前三个季度，美国GDP增长率仅有2.3%，第三季度更是下降到只有1.9%，全年的经济实际增速，预计是等于或低于2.3%，在2020年甚至有下降到2%以下的可能。\n\n以这种经济增速，差不多接近衰退边缘了，股市能不跌就不错了，结果还蹭蹭蹭地涨，不靠美联储的春药加持，你说靠什么？\n\n还记得我在“三点认知，让你看清当代金融市场”一文中的话么？\n债券、股市和房产，那真是全球各国政府心头永远、永远、永远的最爱啊！\n\n你该问了，2020年呢？\n我怎么知道？你要问美联储呢！\n投资不识美联储，买遍资产也枉然！\n\n不过，我倒是看到了美股头顶有一股很黑很黑的乌云，不知道美联储准备拿什么办法来驱散。\n\n\n这一朵乌云，是美国企业债务问题。\n\n从宏观上看，一个国家的实体经济债务，可以分为政府债务（包括地方政府与中央政府）、企业债务和家庭债务。在信用货币体系之下，理论上说，政府债务再高也没问题，大不了让央行开动印钞机，还可以把官方利率定为0甚至是负值（譬如现在的日本和欧洲），所以，政府债务通常不会引发经济突然出现大麻烦。\n关于各国政府的债务情况，请点击：最新，各国政府到底欠了多少债？\n\n但是，企业和家庭债务就不一样了，央行是无能为力的，否则：\n你家欠了债，让央行印钞替你还？\n某家企业欠了债，让央行印钞替它还？\n这显然是不行的。\n\n所以，能够引发经济突然出现大问题的，一定是家庭或者政府债务。\n\n下面这张图，就是1986年迄今的美国家庭部门债务/GDP的百分比情况。\n\n你注意看一下，美国家庭部门的债务，是不是在2007-2008年达到了历史最高水平，并且丧失增长能力？\n\n想想2008年的金融危机是由什么引起的？次贷、次贷，可不就是家庭部门的次级房贷问题嘛！\n\n现在，经过10多年的去杠杆，美国家庭部门的债务/GDP降到了只有75%的水平，所以目前美国家庭部门的债务，健康得不得了，所以这个没有啥风险。\n\n那我们再来看企业部门的债务——\n妈呀，不对劲啊！\n\n数据显示，美国企业债务已经从2007年的5万亿美元增加到2019年中期的9.5万亿美元，企业债务占GDP的比例已经达到了历史上经济衰退时的高位（图中灰色柱体为美国经济衰退期）。\n\n和2007-2008年的美国房屋次级贷款问题的根源一样，在这次巨大的债务增加中，主要的增长是BBB级债务(金额超过3.2万亿美元)，这些评级距离垃圾债券也就一步之遥，最最重要的是，这些次级债务的增长也开始停滞……\n\n\n在以往的文章中，我曾多次表达过，美股2017年以来的上涨，几乎完全依赖股票回购，但在2019年以来股票回购额变少的情况下，美国依然创出历史上第二佳的涨幅，只能说，美联储的春药助攻威力巨大。\n\n像苹果、微软、谷歌之类的新兴科技公司，盈利能力强大，他们用利润来回购股票，理念上说无可厚非，可也正因为这些公司不断地回购股票，其他很多盈利状况不佳的公司也选择了东施效颦……\n\n没有那么多的盈利，怎么来回购股票？\n\n发债啊！\n因为美联储2008年以来实施的超低利率政策和量化宽松政策，公司烂、盈利少都不要紧，发债就可以，而且债券的利率都还能定得很低。就在过去的几年里，众多BBB评级的公司，出售了数万亿美元的债券，并用所得资金回购股票。\n\n由于2018年下半年以来欧洲和日本央行实施骇人的负利率货币政策，美国这些烂公司的债券收益很低（发行价很高）都有人买，然后这些公司就用这些钱努力维持股票价格以跟上那些大公司的涨幅，结果就是美国BBB级企业债务杠杆接近历史最高水平。\n\n前几天，新债王Jeff Gundlach说，尽管发行BBB债券的公司拥有BBB评级，但55%的BBB公司实际上应该已经处于垃圾评级，这使得美国BBB级企业债务的违约风险，远比预期的还要高。\n\n听起来，和2007年次贷危机爆发前的房贷是不是很像？\n\n近10年来，在家庭部门忙着去杠杆的同时，美股里那些最差劲的公司正忙着加杠杆，目前BBB级企业的债务水平已经接近历史最高水平，一旦利率有个风吹草动，就意味着众多企业债券的违约和崩盘。\n\n嗯，驱散这段围绕在美国经济上空最黑最黑的乌云——\n又要靠美联储了！\n\n美联储主席鲍威尔在2019年10月降息的时候还腆着脸说，这是“加息周期中的降息”——意思是说，他2020年还要加息呢！\n\n可我要说，你全特么是放屁！\n如果你真的敢稍稍加息，这些企业债券就会像2007-2008年的次级房贷一样崩盘！至少，为了维持住美股不暴跌，2020年你根本不可能会考虑加息这个选项！\n\n2020年，你不仅不会加息，如果这些企业次级债券稍稍出点儿问题，说不定，你还会再次选择降息，甚至，在下半年再来一轮大规模的QE！\n\n就你们央行这点儿尿性，谁还不知道呢，装什么大尾巴狼！","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1024,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911178194,"gmtCreate":1578147296218,"gmtModify":1704337014322,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>&nbsp;为什么偏偏是周五，周末又让局势缓和了！真的是mmp","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>&nbsp;为什么偏偏是周五，周末又让局势缓和了！真的是mmp","text":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 为什么偏偏是周五，周末又让局势缓和了！真的是mmp","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911178194","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1779,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"211322702244282","authorId":"211322702244282","name":"蜗牛慢跑","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23112047523e4f618d00ab8bf470276c","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"211322702244282","idStr":"211322702244282"},"content":"缓和了吗，升级了吧","text":"缓和了吗，升级了吧","html":"缓和了吗，升级了吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":911924670,"gmtCreate":1577982547690,"gmtModify":1704336733149,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这波高涨是因为美联储给影子银行的五千亿全都流进了股市！","listText":"这波高涨是因为美联储给影子银行的五千亿全都流进了股市！","text":"这波高涨是因为美联储给影子银行的五千亿全都流进了股市！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/911924670","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913827988,"gmtCreate":1577459807744,"gmtModify":1704335841805,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>&nbsp;是时候加仓了吗？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TVIX\">$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$</a>&nbsp;是时候加仓了吗？","text":"$二倍做多VIX波动率指数短期期权ETN(TVIX)$ 是时候加仓了吗？","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/10bac9cd94641589253e94f1246edfd2","width":"1080","height":"1679"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913827988","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3536192528625560","authorId":"3536192528625560","name":"瑞士坤哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fb45e9447a299510d30d9a1f5c46d3bf","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3536192528625560","idStr":"3536192528625560"},"content":"你九十多还拿着 ? 我估计一月份能到六十五 到七十 不过今天还不明朗 建议在观察一天","text":"你九十多还拿着 ? 我估计一月份能到六十五 到七十 不过今天还不明朗 建议在观察一天","html":"你九十多还拿着 ? 我估计一月份能到六十五 到七十 不过今天还不明朗 建议在观察一天"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":913145465,"gmtCreate":1577412258457,"gmtModify":1704335731452,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3494306162017448","idStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"爱国宣传引发的销量剧增，消费者终究会理性，反噬是迟早的事","listText":"爱国宣传引发的销量剧增，消费者终究会理性，反噬是迟早的事","text":"爱国宣传引发的销量剧增，消费者终究会理性，反噬是迟早的事","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/913145465","repostId":"1994036453","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1994036453","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1577334748,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1994036453?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2019-12-26 12:32","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"华为、小米国内处境两重天，关键时候，核心技术还是很重要的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1994036453","media":"互联网乱侃秀","summary":"众所周知，最近小米和华为（荣耀）这对欢喜冤家竞争非常激烈，从手机斗到电视，再又从电视拉回手机，双方你来我往，好不热闹，让一帮吃瓜群众看足了戏。而小米为何今年对华为（荣耀）展开这么密集的攻势？原因很简单","content":"<html><body><article><p>众所周知，最近小米和华为（荣耀）这对欢喜冤家竞争非常激烈，从手机斗到电视，再又从电视拉回手机，双方你来我往，好不热闹，让一帮吃瓜群众看足了戏。</p><p>而小米为何今年对华为（荣耀）展开这么密集的攻势？原因很简单，因为今年华为太猛了，抢走了小米太多太多的市场，小米在国内市场不断下滑，已经连续3个季度下滑了。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/11034433901/0\"/><p>以前小米销量好的时候，华为（荣耀）追着小米打，现在反过来了，所以就小米追着华为（荣耀）打了，这也符合大家盯着老大打的规则，无可厚非，行业都是这么整的。</p><p>那么为何今年华为、小米在国内的处境两重天？华为突飞猛进，小米则不断下滑？我想这中间就是核心技术在起作用了，这也是让消费者买单的根本原因之一。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/10450740121/0\"/><p>本来，在全球供应链一体化，全球经济一体化的今天，全球整合供应链来生产自己的产品，并没有什么问题，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>、华为其实也是这么干的。</p><p>但今年很特殊，因为“实体清单”的原因，所以“民族品牌”，“核心科技”等这样的关键词就不断的被消费者们提及，并且在购买产品的时候也成为了考虑的重要因素之一。</p><p>华为比小米自然更有科技芯片，因为Soc是自研的，基带是自研，还有其它各种自研的芯片，最能代表民族品牌。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/8368992432/0\"/><p>相反，小米和华为比起来，基本上没有什么自研，大部分是整合全球供应链，并且最重要的Soc、基带都是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>的，而高通是美国的，华为和高通目前又在芯片上进行PK，美国又对华为开出了禁令。</p><p>所以在这种情形之下，自然就也影响了小米的销量，甚至这也成为了很多别有用心的人吐槽小米的点，说拥抱美国技术的小米，没有核心科技，不<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300785\">值得买</a>，这让小米有苦难言。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/10902987226/0\"/><p>可见，对于今年华为、小米在国内市场的不同境界，真的是核心科技起了关键作用，要是华为不是自研芯片，基带这些，要是小米不使用高通的芯片、基带什么的，哪怕使用的是国产的芯片、基带，也不会如此下滑严重，你觉得呢？</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>华为、小米国内处境两重天，关键时候，核心技术还是很重要的</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN201912261232527ac952ce&s=b><strong>互联网乱侃秀</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>众所周知，最近小米和华为（荣耀）这对欢喜冤家竞争非常激烈，从手机斗到电视，再又从电视拉回手机，双方你来我往，好不热闹，让一帮吃瓜群众看足了戏。而小米为何今年对华为（荣耀）展开这么密集的攻势？原因很简单，因为今年华为太猛了，抢走了小米太多太多的市场，小米在国内市场不断下滑，已经连续3个季度下滑了。以前小米销量好的时候，华为（荣耀）追着小米打，现在反过来了，所以就小米追着华为（荣耀）打了，这也符合大家...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN201912261232527ac952ce&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce88d7c500914d5edde5f4ccbc6959f5","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN201912261232527ac952ce&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"1994036453","content_text":"众所周知，最近小米和华为（荣耀）这对欢喜冤家竞争非常激烈，从手机斗到电视，再又从电视拉回手机，双方你来我往，好不热闹，让一帮吃瓜群众看足了戏。而小米为何今年对华为（荣耀）展开这么密集的攻势？原因很简单，因为今年华为太猛了，抢走了小米太多太多的市场，小米在国内市场不断下滑，已经连续3个季度下滑了。以前小米销量好的时候，华为（荣耀）追着小米打，现在反过来了，所以就小米追着华为（荣耀）打了，这也符合大家盯着老大打的规则，无可厚非，行业都是这么整的。那么为何今年华为、小米在国内的处境两重天？华为突飞猛进，小米则不断下滑？我想这中间就是核心技术在起作用了，这也是让消费者买单的根本原因之一。本来，在全球供应链一体化，全球经济一体化的今天，全球整合供应链来生产自己的产品，并没有什么问题，苹果、三星、华为其实也是这么干的。但今年很特殊，因为“实体清单”的原因，所以“民族品牌”，“核心科技”等这样的关键词就不断的被消费者们提及，并且在购买产品的时候也成为了考虑的重要因素之一。华为比小米自然更有科技芯片，因为Soc是自研的，基带是自研，还有其它各种自研的芯片，最能代表民族品牌。相反，小米和华为比起来，基本上没有什么自研，大部分是整合全球供应链，并且最重要的Soc、基带都是高通的，而高通是美国的，华为和高通目前又在芯片上进行PK，美国又对华为开出了禁令。所以在这种情形之下，自然就也影响了小米的销量，甚至这也成为了很多别有用心的人吐槽小米的点，说拥抱美国技术的小米，没有核心科技，不值得买，这让小米有苦难言。可见，对于今年华为、小米在国内市场的不同境界，真的是核心科技起了关键作用，要是华为不是自研芯片，基带这些，要是小米不使用高通的芯片、基带什么的，哪怕使用的是国产的芯片、基带，也不会如此下滑严重，你觉得呢？","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1231,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":917642391,"gmtCreate":1581784488513,"gmtModify":1704345191904,"author":{"id":"3494306162017448","authorId":"3494306162017448","name":"蒸蛋糕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5540b1ae794d58076a38d418e3ee8906","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494306162017448","authorIdStr":"3494306162017448"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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