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炒股的小学生

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炒股的小学生

2023-11-20

$恒生指数主连 2311(HSImain)$ 你踏马的最近是涨疯了吧

炒股的小学生

2023-01-09

那还有人买吗[开心]

小米集团涨超8%！小米汽车正讨论定价区间，手机高端化持续推进

炒股的小学生

2022-12-06

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@话题虎:美股大盘下挫，有股悄悄反弹50%！如何投资布局？

炒股的小学生

2022-04-27

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$真是烂到家了

炒股的小学生

2021-10-22

$泡泡玛特(09992)$**了吧

炒股的小学生

2021-06-11

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$真特么s b啊，横盘这么久

炒股的小学生

2021-06-03

$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$真特么**啊

炒股的小学生

2021-05-25

$猫眼娱乐(01896)$这货咋这么**啊

炒股的小学生

2021-05-25

真**啊！

炒股的小学生

2021-03-30

别特么预测了，还未来15天内，你当初也是这么说猫眼的，你看看那货成什么样子了，别人涨，它就在那里趴着

大摩：料泡泡玛特(9992.HK)股价未来15日内将升

炒股的小学生

2021-03-24

不看好去做空啊！

2021审判日？为什么不看好股市及商品超级周期

炒股的小学生

2021-03-11

la ji 的玩意儿

炒股的小学生

2021-03-03

$猫眼娱乐(01896)$涨2个点，第二天就跌4个点，也就你傻吊能干出来

炒股的小学生

2021-03-02

你到底咋回事儿啊，**了吧

炒股的小学生

2021-02-26

$猫眼娱乐(01896)$失望透顶

炒股的小学生

2021-02-17

$猫眼娱乐(01896)$为啥你就不敢涨呢，畏畏缩缩的

炒股的小学生

2021-02-16

高开低走，**

炒股的小学生

2021-02-16

$猫眼娱乐(01896)$真特么不要脸

炒股的小学生

2021-01-19

猫眼**了吧，从七个点跌倒一个点，能不能TM正常一点啊

炒股的小学生

2020-12-10

$猫眼娱乐(01896)$真想把你卖掉，不死不活的，傻吊一样

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-09 10:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月9日，小米集团-W盘中走高，截至发稿，该股涨超8%。小米汽车正讨论定价区间，小米手机高端化持续推进。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91378e01cd4d5ae1872e2f51c79e3cfa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>消息面上，据媒体报道，小米造车有了关键进展，第一款车为中型溜背式轿车。分为两个版本，内部讨论方案为一个版本定位26万-30万元区间，另一个版本在35万元以上。预计最快年内就可以发布，并于2024年发售。消息人士还称，小米也在研发第二款量产车计划2025年推出。</p><p>此外，小米集团召开手机部年度总结大会。雷军表示，小米高端化探索做得不错，最近半年的小米12SUltra、小米MIXFold2、小米13系列这三款产品都很好，要继续总结经验，争取更大的突破。据悉，雷军此前明确表示，小米会坚定不移地执行高端化战略。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea2b9ab8a046974039715aed46d9985","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183884253","content_text":"1月9日，小米集团-W盘中走高，截至发稿，该股涨超8%。小米汽车正讨论定价区间，小米手机高端化持续推进。消息面上，据媒体报道，小米造车有了关键进展，第一款车为中型溜背式轿车。分为两个版本，内部讨论方案为一个版本定位26万-30万元区间，另一个版本在35万元以上。预计最快年内就可以发布，并于2024年发售。消息人士还称，小米也在研发第二款量产车计划2025年推出。此外，小米集团召开手机部年度总结大会。雷军表示，小米高端化探索做得不错，最近半年的小米12SUltra、小米MIXFold2、小米13系列这三款产品都很好，要继续总结经验，争取更大的突破。据悉，雷军此前明确表示，小米会坚定不移地执行高端化战略。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":629160015,"gmtCreate":1670339886638,"gmtModify":1670339888261,"author":{"id":"3494206700188485","authorId":"3494206700188485","name":"炒股的小学生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494206700188485","authorIdStr":"3494206700188485"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/629160015","repostId":"629347700","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":629347700,"gmtCreate":1670307373200,"gmtModify":1670307393482,"author":{"id":"3502767768442965","authorId":"3502767768442965","name":"话题虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d418c2def5dc1d094b03270b450f71ce","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502767768442965","authorIdStr":"3502767768442965"},"themes":[],"title":"美股大盘下挫，有股悄悄反弹50%！如何投资布局？","htmlText":"今年以来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 累计下跌16.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 下跌了29%，对比下来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 今年累计下跌7.21%，三大指数中表现最佳。据报道，这是自1933年以来，道琼斯跑赢标普500指数幅度最大的一年，也是自2000年以来，跑赢纳斯达克综合幅度最大的一年。目前，只有道指没有从近期高点下跌20%，还没有进入熊市区域。道琼斯指数由30家知名蓝筹股组成，分布在能源、工业、金融等板块，而这些板块今年整体表现较好，受油价带动的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">$雪佛龙(CVX)$</a> ，今年累涨50%，领跑道指成分股。而往年收市场追捧的科技股遭遇重挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> 等大盘股跌幅均超过了大盘，拖累大盘指数。美银ETF策略师Jared Woodard称，在高利率环境下，从科技等高增长行业撤离是新的趋势在经济衰退、市场震荡的背景下，拥有强大现金流、能给股东带来更多分红的","listText":"今年以来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$</a> 累计下跌16.6%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a> 下跌了29%，对比下来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.DJI\">$道琼斯(.DJI)$</a> 今年累计下跌7.21%，三大指数中表现最佳。据报道，这是自1933年以来，道琼斯跑赢标普500指数幅度最大的一年，也是自2000年以来，跑赢纳斯达克综合幅度最大的一年。目前，只有道指没有从近期高点下跌20%，还没有进入熊市区域。道琼斯指数由30家知名蓝筹股组成，分布在能源、工业、金融等板块，而这些板块今年整体表现较好，受油价带动的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CVX\">$雪佛龙(CVX)$</a> ，今年累涨50%，领跑道指成分股。而往年收市场追捧的科技股遭遇重挫，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">$谷歌(GOOG)$</a> 等大盘股跌幅均超过了大盘，拖累大盘指数。美银ETF策略师Jared Woodard称，在高利率环境下，从科技等高增长行业撤离是新的趋势在经济衰退、市场震荡的背景下，拥有强大现金流、能给股东带来更多分红的","text":"今年以来，$标普500(.SPX)$ 累计下跌16.6%，$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 下跌了29%，对比下来，$道琼斯(.DJI)$ 今年累计下跌7.21%，三大指数中表现最佳。据报道，这是自1933年以来，道琼斯跑赢标普500指数幅度最大的一年，也是自2000年以来，跑赢纳斯达克综合幅度最大的一年。目前，只有道指没有从近期高点下跌20%，还没有进入熊市区域。道琼斯指数由30家知名蓝筹股组成，分布在能源、工业、金融等板块，而这些板块今年整体表现较好，受油价带动的$雪佛龙(CVX)$ ，今年累涨50%，领跑道指成分股。而往年收市场追捧的科技股遭遇重挫，$苹果(AAPL)$ 、$微软(MSFT)$ 、$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 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15:45","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"大摩：料泡泡玛特(9992.HK)股价未来15日内将升","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2123936236","media":"格隆汇","summary":"大摩料泡泡玛特(9992.HK)股价未来15日内将升，目标价63港元。","content":"<html><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>发表技术分析报告，相信<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09992\">泡泡玛特</a>(9992.HK)股价未来15日内将升，发生机会率为70%至80%，予其股份“<span>与大市同步</span><span>”评级，目标价63港元。</span></p><p>该行表示，在泡泡玛特股价过去一周下跌了21%后(对比同期国指为下跌3%)，看到股价有两个反弹催化剂，包括集团去年盈利表现较市场预期为佳；及管理层预期于第二季逐步解决供应上的限制。</p><p>大摩又指，集团计划就排名头五的知识产权(IPs)推出更多盲盒玩具，并预期现有产品的供应短缺将可逐渐解决，因此认为集团第二季的销售或会较首季加快。</p><p><img src=\"https://img3.gelonghui.com/e3891-b5440037-a4b7-42e8-a7bc-f263265a2355.png\"/></p></body></html>","source":"gelonghui_highlight","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩：料泡泡玛特(9992.HK)股价未来15日内将升</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩：料泡泡玛特(9992.HK)股价未来15日内将升\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-29 15:45 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.gelonghui.com/p/455230><strong>格隆汇</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摩根士丹利发表技术分析报告，相信泡泡玛特(9992.HK)股价未来15日内将升，发生机会率为70%至80%，予其股份“与大市同步”评级，目标价63港元。该行表示，在泡泡玛特股价过去一周下跌了21%后(对比同期国指为下跌3%)，看到股价有两个反弹催化剂，包括集团去年盈利表现较市场预期为佳；及管理层预期于第二季逐步解决供应上的限制。大摩又指，集团计划就排名头五的知识产权(IPs)推出更多盲盒玩具，并...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/455230\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img7.gelonghui.com/column/2/104.png","relate_stocks":{"09992":"泡泡玛特","MS":"摩根士丹利"},"source_url":"http://www.gelonghui.com/p/455230","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6b8fa6424aebe95f6781d04ef17a1852","article_id":"2123936236","content_text":"摩根士丹利发表技术分析报告，相信泡泡玛特(9992.HK)股价未来15日内将升，发生机会率为70%至80%，予其股份“与大市同步”评级，目标价63港元。该行表示，在泡泡玛特股价过去一周下跌了21%后(对比同期国指为下跌3%)，看到股价有两个反弹催化剂，包括集团去年盈利表现较市场预期为佳；及管理层预期于第二季逐步解决供应上的限制。大摩又指，集团计划就排名头五的知识产权(IPs)推出更多盲盒玩具，并预期现有产品的供应短缺将可逐渐解决，因此认为集团第二季的销售或会较首季加快。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1721,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":351238761,"gmtCreate":1616596512353,"gmtModify":1616596512353,"author":{"id":"3494206700188485","authorId":"3494206700188485","name":"炒股的小学生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494206700188485","authorIdStr":"3494206700188485"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不看好去做空啊！","listText":"不看好去做空啊！","text":"不看好去做空啊！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351238761","repostId":"1100080179","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1100080179","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616593664,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1100080179?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-24 21:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"2021审判日？为什么不看好股市及商品超级周期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100080179","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"美国复工对商品，或部分周期股，比如化工实际是利空。","content":"<p>作者：袁玉玮</p><p>去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。</p><p>但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内疾 —— 理论上会向后延伸分布，除非经济会快速繁荣（这非常不现实）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873e66b2fb1140bf4542722170c1b634\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d600bd87df2e4cf7aae3b231feea75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么看空新兴市场，尤其土耳其，拉美股汇双杀</b></p><p>美债收益率是全球资产定价的锚。</p><p>无论你如何否认外力的作用，美国在全球的金融影响力目前无人匹敌。另外，2016年之后的广义价值投资，茅指数崛起，其实也是A股对外资开放后，投资风格机构化，长期化，被动化，基本面驱动的过程。</p><p><b>我个人认为，在内部资产虚火旺盛，充斥泡沫，过度高估（万得全A-ex银行石化PE达到41倍）的时候，外部因素影响一定超过内部因素</b>，从全球宏观的角度全方位评估风险。外部任何风吹草动都可能是压倒骆驼的稻草。</p><p>美元泛滥，发达国家0/负利率，在去年推动了全球资产泡沫，那么当美债利率上涨的时候，其实就是每个国家的“资产管理人”要面临一定hurdle rate才能收业绩费的考核 —— 潮退了，我们才知道谁没游泳。我们之前选了历史上一贯有债务危机传统的土耳其，拉美作为做空标的，近期暴跌之前，他们都面临疫情恶化，或国内恶性通胀的危险。作为石油产出国，巴西甚至害怕石油涨价恶化通胀，撤了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">巴西石油公司</a>的CEO，通胀风险可见一斑。</p><p>符合这2个标准的还有印度，俄罗斯，但因为：</p><p>前者的种姓制度根本忽略底层的“人”的生死，没有道德和经济包袱，疫情对他们来说就像一场内部优胜劣汰，所以从资产上很难观测波动；</p><p>而后者由于受益于石油上涨，而且前几年未雨绸缪，黄金储备高</p><p>—— 所以这2个做空逻辑都有瑕疵。</p><p>为了对冲EM风险，我们选择了多东亚/空土耳其和拉美。和Druckenmiller的观点一样，我们从去年在EM相对看好东亚 —— 得益于疫情控制，尤其在科技，新能源处于优势。但他说的买东亚/空美国，我觉得还是过于激进。</p><p>我们在18年就说过，美国一向在美元上短空长多，割EM韭菜。去年底，全世界都看空美元的时候，美元不跌，拥挤的空头们就该反省了。这也是为什么我们今年不那么看空美元，看空EM的原因之一。盲目长期看空美元，是危险的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/579cf18d938f1606e8bbe2e91f397a98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么不看好商品超级周期</b></p><p>商品超级周期？这个逻辑太荒谬。</p><p>历史上的商品超级周期都伴随人类经济的繁荣。最近一次由于中国加入WTO和全球一体化，变成世界工厂，叠加中国的地产经济驱动的消费升级和财富效应。</p><p>而<b>中国推动上一轮2000-2007超级商品周期，有很多精密的条件或偶然性</b>：</p><ol><li><p>文化：任劳任怨，勤劳致富，炫富，底层忍耐贫富差距能力强</p></li><li><p>基建</p></li><li><p>政府高效</p></li><li><p>中国经济的反身性：地产/通胀/工作效率/财富效应/消费</p></li><li><p>上次还有美国地产泡沫和金砖五国同时崛起的大背景</p></li></ol><p>我们至少在未来10-20年内看不到任何一个地区或国家可以复制中国模式：</p><p>印度和非洲人认命，无欲无求，或懒惰的天性，</p><p>欧美也都困扰于长期低成长，通缩和贫富差距扩大，低欲望；</p><p>根本无法复制2000-2007的中国。</p><p>而且，<b>2008年之后，全球央行用放水来保持经济相对稳定，实际很大部分得益于商品的通缩。在没有新兴国家替代中国驱动的条件下，商品如果进入超级周期，我看只有全球恶性通胀背景下才有可能 —— 那么离战争也就不远了</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bafed14735b6f7bca7e02e39e60ef0ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd9e2823d5e4c1c0ac267dcd41fc486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>另外，本轮商品上涨，主要由于石油和铜上涨，但</p><ul><li><p>石油涨价因为供给侧；</p></li><li><p>铜，我们看到有类似GME的gamma squeeze，美股，A股，铜期货...的跨市从虚拟向实体操纵价格，做局的嫌疑。</p></li></ul><p>这2个品种的内在逻辑无法完成领导商品牛市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451727453c577f905b52af9a4a4b56b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816b17c9ab75a6ef70e02a258d1697d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么不看好化工龙头</b></p><p>去年，驱动国内商品牛市有很多偶然因素：</p><p>2020商品上涨主要基于 —— 全球央行放水 x 中国复工/苏 x 订单流向中国 x 欧洲居家办公导致的买房和装修、家电需求 x 疫苗后复工强预期 —— 这些因素具备高度的偶然性，短期性，无法长期复制；长期上涨需要经济和消费需求实质性改善，我们目前没看到。</p><p>化工龙头去年享受了低油价，和美国去年石化产能被疫情冲击。这两个因素在今年都不存在。尤其美国复工，对国内化工是利空，而不是利多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026025199f3a4dae623db7c47c45afc8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641302e4981a313c34bf19ac25ebc2ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么港股有风险</b></p><p>年后的港股行情实际还是恒生科技股驱动，主要是南下抱团的懒惰思维。重夺港股定价权，是善良的价值投资者的一厢情愿。</p><p>那么，港股实际同时暴露在四大风险：</p><ul><li><p>反垄断</p></li><li><p>茅指数联动</p></li><li><p>通胀预期和美债利率上涨</p></li><li><p>美元升值</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33d97c677841a52863d8a370d0a9486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>综上，2021年，无论美股，A股，港股，都和2018年非常相似。但鉴于现在的高层领导强大的纠错能力，而且早已提前预警，并且要经济维稳、金融维稳；2021，不太可能完全复制2018。</p><p><b>Gamma Squeeze,&nbsp;散户，SPAC，ARK,&nbsp;网红基金</b></p><p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.&nbsp;That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.&nbsp;Recently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.&nbsp;—— 摘自MarketWatch</p><p>我们去年分析过，ARK去年业绩很大程度上，得益于</p><p>①0利率和负利率盛行，导致资金对成长股和中小盘股的追捧；</p><p>②疫情实际 =&nbsp;大自然的供给侧改革，摧枯拉朽了受制于封城的旧经济 ——&nbsp;对科技互联网是天上掉馅饼；</p><p>③Tesla高度暴露，但Tesla表现实际大部分来源于逼空效果，和空头减仓有高度的正相关性 —— Tesla股票有一定的金融资产属性，某种程度上，它和Bitcoin很类似，都是资金抱团的结果。</p><p>④中小盘暴露和低质量暴露：ARK持有大量中小盘股和资产负债表弱的股票。这其实得益于低利率催化了市场参与者的风险偏好，和散户羊群的偏好高度重叠。</p><p>⑤AUM扩张+散户跟踪→反身效应：ARK由于今年的超群业绩，导致资金流入不断加速，形成了正反馈效果 ——&nbsp;后入的资金推动持仓进入正反馈。另外，由于ARK的基金持仓透明公布，吸引了众多散户跟风，又加强了正反馈。</p><p>年初，A股的网红基金其实也具备ARK的特征，实际大部分是类被动risk premia风格因子的被动投资，他们得益于央行放水的大beta，alpha含量并不高。而且散户的追涨网红基金，实际等同于散户在GME期权上long gamma，短期有大量的杠杆效应。他们实际不是价值投资，而是在和时间，和内在价值作对，想从未来攫取暴利，短期套现。</p><p>ARK目前不断抛出大盘股，买入小盘股，作最后一搏。但是我们观测到:</p><ul><li><p>ARK的交易量明显下降，</p></li><li><p>看涨期权市场已经显著萎缩 = 散户资产去gamma，去杠杆，缩水，Biden发完补助，我们并没观测到市场预期的散户大军的进场。</p></li><li><p>本周，美债收益率下降，一线科技股大幅反弹，但gamma squeeze标的却出现暴跌现象（讽刺的是，A股的一线龙头 —— 茅指数在和美国抱团票 —— 垃圾股，二线科技股共振）</p></li></ul><p>昨晚，Yellen和Powell又双双谈到目前存在资产泡沫（US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures）。</p><p>一场金融\"马陵道\"围剿的天时，地利，人和，也许都具备了。我们“慭慭然”，小心观测。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c594d0f35d546b7e772525962725ebdb\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb27b96b2dec4cfd8ba23c1c66febb19\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>西方传说上帝会在审判日那天赏善罚恶；</p><p>我们并不预期2021一定是大熊市，</p><p>但2021很可能是宏观层面均值回归的一年</p><p>—— 表现在各个层面：</p><p>时间，</p><p>地域，</p><p>供应链，</p><p>估值，</p><p>风格，</p><p>人性，</p><p>欲念，</p><p>地球引力...</p><p>“潮退了，你才知道谁在裸泳。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c514a790774c86cfa09ba0d39d7de12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>图片：visualcapitalist.com</p>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2021审判日？为什么不看好股市及商品超级周期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021审判日？为什么不看好股市及商品超级周期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-24 21:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg><strong>泷韬全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：袁玉玮去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367fa068a00cbca94908e862748783f0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100080179","content_text":"作者：袁玉玮去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内疾 —— 理论上会向后延伸分布，除非经济会快速繁荣（这非常不现实）。为什么看空新兴市场，尤其土耳其，拉美股汇双杀美债收益率是全球资产定价的锚。无论你如何否认外力的作用，美国在全球的金融影响力目前无人匹敌。另外，2016年之后的广义价值投资，茅指数崛起，其实也是A股对外资开放后，投资风格机构化，长期化，被动化，基本面驱动的过程。我个人认为，在内部资产虚火旺盛，充斥泡沫，过度高估（万得全A-ex银行石化PE达到41倍）的时候，外部因素影响一定超过内部因素，从全球宏观的角度全方位评估风险。外部任何风吹草动都可能是压倒骆驼的稻草。美元泛滥，发达国家0/负利率，在去年推动了全球资产泡沫，那么当美债利率上涨的时候，其实就是每个国家的“资产管理人”要面临一定hurdle rate才能收业绩费的考核 —— 潮退了，我们才知道谁没游泳。我们之前选了历史上一贯有债务危机传统的土耳其，拉美作为做空标的，近期暴跌之前，他们都面临疫情恶化，或国内恶性通胀的危险。作为石油产出国，巴西甚至害怕石油涨价恶化通胀，撤了巴西石油公司的CEO，通胀风险可见一斑。符合这2个标准的还有印度，俄罗斯，但因为：前者的种姓制度根本忽略底层的“人”的生死，没有道德和经济包袱，疫情对他们来说就像一场内部优胜劣汰，所以从资产上很难观测波动；而后者由于受益于石油上涨，而且前几年未雨绸缪，黄金储备高—— 所以这2个做空逻辑都有瑕疵。为了对冲EM风险，我们选择了多东亚/空土耳其和拉美。和Druckenmiller的观点一样，我们从去年在EM相对看好东亚 —— 得益于疫情控制，尤其在科技，新能源处于优势。但他说的买东亚/空美国，我觉得还是过于激进。我们在18年就说过，美国一向在美元上短空长多，割EM韭菜。去年底，全世界都看空美元的时候，美元不跌，拥挤的空头们就该反省了。这也是为什么我们今年不那么看空美元，看空EM的原因之一。盲目长期看空美元，是危险的。为什么不看好商品超级周期商品超级周期？这个逻辑太荒谬。历史上的商品超级周期都伴随人类经济的繁荣。最近一次由于中国加入WTO和全球一体化，变成世界工厂，叠加中国的地产经济驱动的消费升级和财富效应。而中国推动上一轮2000-2007超级商品周期，有很多精密的条件或偶然性：文化：任劳任怨，勤劳致富，炫富，底层忍耐贫富差距能力强基建政府高效中国经济的反身性：地产/通胀/工作效率/财富效应/消费上次还有美国地产泡沫和金砖五国同时崛起的大背景我们至少在未来10-20年内看不到任何一个地区或国家可以复制中国模式：印度和非洲人认命，无欲无求，或懒惰的天性，欧美也都困扰于长期低成长，通缩和贫富差距扩大，低欲望；根本无法复制2000-2007的中国。而且，2008年之后，全球央行用放水来保持经济相对稳定，实际很大部分得益于商品的通缩。在没有新兴国家替代中国驱动的条件下，商品如果进入超级周期，我看只有全球恶性通胀背景下才有可能 —— 那么离战争也就不远了。另外，本轮商品上涨，主要由于石油和铜上涨，但石油涨价因为供给侧；铜，我们看到有类似GME的gamma squeeze，美股，A股，铜期货...的跨市从虚拟向实体操纵价格，做局的嫌疑。这2个品种的内在逻辑无法完成领导商品牛市。为什么不看好化工龙头去年，驱动国内商品牛市有很多偶然因素：2020商品上涨主要基于 —— 全球央行放水 x 中国复工/苏 x 订单流向中国 x 欧洲居家办公导致的买房和装修、家电需求 x 疫苗后复工强预期 —— 这些因素具备高度的偶然性，短期性，无法长期复制；长期上涨需要经济和消费需求实质性改善，我们目前没看到。化工龙头去年享受了低油价，和美国去年石化产能被疫情冲击。这两个因素在今年都不存在。尤其美国复工，对国内化工是利空，而不是利多。为什么港股有风险年后的港股行情实际还是恒生科技股驱动，主要是南下抱团的懒惰思维。重夺港股定价权，是善良的价值投资者的一厢情愿。那么，港股实际同时暴露在四大风险：反垄断茅指数联动通胀预期和美债利率上涨美元升值综上，2021年，无论美股，A股，港股，都和2018年非常相似。但鉴于现在的高层领导强大的纠错能力，而且早已提前预警，并且要经济维稳、金融维稳；2021，不太可能完全复制2018。Gamma Squeeze, 散户，SPAC，ARK, 网红基金Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin. That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher. Recently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market. —— 摘自MarketWatch我们去年分析过，ARK去年业绩很大程度上，得益于①0利率和负利率盛行，导致资金对成长股和中小盘股的追捧；②疫情实际 = 大自然的供给侧改革，摧枯拉朽了受制于封城的旧经济 —— 对科技互联网是天上掉馅饼；③Tesla高度暴露，但Tesla表现实际大部分来源于逼空效果，和空头减仓有高度的正相关性 —— Tesla股票有一定的金融资产属性，某种程度上，它和Bitcoin很类似，都是资金抱团的结果。④中小盘暴露和低质量暴露：ARK持有大量中小盘股和资产负债表弱的股票。这其实得益于低利率催化了市场参与者的风险偏好，和散户羊群的偏好高度重叠。⑤AUM扩张+散户跟踪→反身效应：ARK由于今年的超群业绩，导致资金流入不断加速，形成了正反馈效果 —— 后入的资金推动持仓进入正反馈。另外，由于ARK的基金持仓透明公布，吸引了众多散户跟风，又加强了正反馈。年初，A股的网红基金其实也具备ARK的特征，实际大部分是类被动risk premia风格因子的被动投资，他们得益于央行放水的大beta，alpha含量并不高。而且散户的追涨网红基金，实际等同于散户在GME期权上long gamma，短期有大量的杠杆效应。他们实际不是价值投资，而是在和时间，和内在价值作对，想从未来攫取暴利，短期套现。ARK目前不断抛出大盘股，买入小盘股，作最后一搏。但是我们观测到:ARK的交易量明显下降，看涨期权市场已经显著萎缩 = 散户资产去gamma，去杠杆，缩水，Biden发完补助，我们并没观测到市场预期的散户大军的进场。本周，美债收益率下降，一线科技股大幅反弹，但gamma squeeze标的却出现暴跌现象（讽刺的是，A股的一线龙头 —— 茅指数在和美国抱团票 —— 垃圾股，二线科技股共振）昨晚，Yellen和Powell又双双谈到目前存在资产泡沫（US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures）。一场金融\"马陵道\"围剿的天时，地利，人和，也许都具备了。我们“慭慭然”，小心观测。西方传说上帝会在审判日那天赏善罚恶；我们并不预期2021一定是大熊市，但2021很可能是宏观层面均值回归的一年—— 表现在各个层面：时间，地域，供应链，估值，风格，人性，欲念，地球引力...“潮退了，你才知道谁在裸泳。”图片：visualcapitalist.com","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":321642666,"gmtCreate":1615433217455,"gmtModify":1703488987218,"author":{"id":"3494206700188485","authorId":"3494206700188485","name":"炒股的小学生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494206700188485","authorIdStr":"3494206700188485"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"la ji 的玩意儿","listText":"la ji 的玩意儿","text":"la ji 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10:43","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"小米集团涨超8%！小米汽车正讨论定价区间，手机高端化持续推进","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183884253","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"1月9日，小米集团-W盘中走高，截至发稿，该股涨超8%。小米汽车正讨论定价区间，小米手机高端化持续推进。消息面上，据媒体报道，小米造车有了关键进展，第一款车为中型溜背式轿车。分为两个版本，内部讨论方案","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>1月9日，小米集团-W盘中走高，截至发稿，该股涨超8%。小米汽车正讨论定价区间，小米手机高端化持续推进。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91378e01cd4d5ae1872e2f51c79e3cfa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>消息面上，据媒体报道，小米造车有了关键进展，第一款车为中型溜背式轿车。分为两个版本，内部讨论方案为一个版本定位26万-30万元区间，另一个版本在35万元以上。预计最快年内就可以发布，并于2024年发售。消息人士还称，小米也在研发第二款量产车计划2025年推出。</p><p>此外，小米集团召开手机部年度总结大会。雷军表示，小米高端化探索做得不错，最近半年的小米12SUltra、小米MIXFold2、小米13系列这三款产品都很好，要继续总结经验，争取更大的突破。据悉，雷军此前明确表示，小米会坚定不移地执行高端化战略。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米集团涨超8%！小米汽车正讨论定价区间，手机高端化持续推进\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-01-09 10:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>1月9日，小米集团-W盘中走高，截至发稿，该股涨超8%。小米汽车正讨论定价区间，小米手机高端化持续推进。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91378e01cd4d5ae1872e2f51c79e3cfa\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>消息面上，据媒体报道，小米造车有了关键进展，第一款车为中型溜背式轿车。分为两个版本，内部讨论方案为一个版本定位26万-30万元区间，另一个版本在35万元以上。预计最快年内就可以发布，并于2024年发售。消息人士还称，小米也在研发第二款量产车计划2025年推出。</p><p>此外，小米集团召开手机部年度总结大会。雷军表示，小米高端化探索做得不错，最近半年的小米12SUltra、小米MIXFold2、小米13系列这三款产品都很好，要继续总结经验，争取更大的突破。据悉，雷军此前明确表示，小米会坚定不移地执行高端化战略。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aea2b9ab8a046974039715aed46d9985","relate_stocks":{"01810":"小米集团-W"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183884253","content_text":"1月9日，小米集团-W盘中走高，截至发稿，该股涨超8%。小米汽车正讨论定价区间，小米手机高端化持续推进。消息面上，据媒体报道，小米造车有了关键进展，第一款车为中型溜背式轿车。分为两个版本，内部讨论方案为一个版本定位26万-30万元区间，另一个版本在35万元以上。预计最快年内就可以发布，并于2024年发售。消息人士还称，小米也在研发第二款量产车计划2025年推出。此外，小米集团召开手机部年度总结大会。雷军表示，小米高端化探索做得不错，最近半年的小米12SUltra、小米MIXFold2、小米13系列这三款产品都很好，要继续总结经验，争取更大的突破。据悉，雷军此前明确表示，小米会坚定不移地执行高端化战略。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1988,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390209987,"gmtCreate":1605796548149,"gmtModify":1703839665346,"author":{"id":"3494206700188485","authorId":"3494206700188485","name":"炒股的小学生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494206700188485","authorIdStr":"3494206700188485"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"大惊小怪","listText":"大惊小怪","text":"大惊小怪","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390209987","repostId":"2084443899","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2084443899","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1605685119,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2084443899?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-11-18 15:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"电商三巨头格局生变：阿里巴巴巨大优势或已不再","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2084443899","media":"炣燃科技","summary":"日前，电商三巨头阿里、京东与拼多多Q3财报发布。","content":"<p>炣燃科技10月17日讯（宏斌）日前，电商三巨头阿里、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>与<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>Q3财报发布。</p><p><b>从财报上看，三大巨头之间竞争态势似乎已发生变化。</b></p><p>一直以来，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>一直有着巨大的优势。尽管是竞争对手，但多年来阿里如同一座不可逾越的高山，京东跟随，拼多多追赶，如今，阿里巴巴的巨大优势或在逐渐消失。</p><p><b>营收方面，在三大巨头中，依旧是京东、阿里巴巴两强格局占主体。</b></p><p>具体来看，阿里巴巴和京东的营收规模早已是千亿级别，甚至在冲击2000亿大关，而拼多多仅仅维系在百亿左右，短时间无法在规模上和阿里、京东并驾齐驱。</p><p>但并意味着拼多多被压制。11月12日，拼多多发布第三季度财报，第三季度营收超142亿元，同比增长89%。</p><p>在用户增长层面，拼多多APP的平均月活用户数已达6.434亿，单季度增长了7460万，较去年同期增长50%。也即是说，拼多多在三巨头中成长是最快的。</p><p>但随着规模的逐步提升，增速也降至了100%以内。尽管如此，纵向比较依然很惊人。2019年同期，拼多多的用户是5.363亿，但截止今年9月底，拼多多平台年活跃买家数已高达7.313亿，相当于半个中国都在使用拼多多。</p><p><b>换句话说：仅一年时间，拼多多就新增了1.95亿用户。</b></p><p><b>按照这个发展势头，用不了太久，拼多多就可以超过阿里的用户体量。</b></p><p>不过，阿里巴巴，依然是最强大的。三家巨头中，阿里巴巴是最多元化的企业，这或许是当互联网人口红利逐步触及天花板的大背景下，利好阿里巴巴的一点。</p><p>今年第三季度，阿里来自核心电商的收入占比降到了85%以下，而云计算占比则达到了9.61%。</p><p>更重要的是，今年第三季度，阿里巴巴云计算业务的营收达到148.99亿元，同比增长60%，这样的增速是惊人的。</p><p>京东也在调整业务线。分析显示，来自商品收入的部分占到京东整体的83.9%，物流收入占比则达到了7.34%，去年同期则仅为4.45%。</p><p>与此同时，京东的新增用户也在高速增长。财报显示，截至2020年9月30日，京东过去12个月的活跃购买用户数达到4.416亿，同比增长32.1%，增速创下过去三年来的新高，一年净增了1亿多活跃用户。其中，近80%新增活跃用户来自于下沉新兴市场。</p><p>新兴市场已经成为三巨头新战场。很显然，谁拥有更多的用户谁就可能占据更大的市场。即使在净利润上阿里保持领先，京东位于第二，拼多多才首次实现盈利，但未来阿里巴巴一家独大的电商格局，必然会受到重大冲击。</p><p>对比过去连续十二个季度的用户增长数据后，三季度阿里的移动月活用户增长几乎陷入了停滞状态，过去三年里，阿里每个季度的用户增长量除了2018年第二季度外，都维持在2000万以。但是本季度，这个数字直接掉到了700万。</p><p><b>阿里感到的危险，特别是下沉市场的争夺。</b></p><p>在此之前，阿里巴巴是瞧不上这一“低端市场”，但随着市场需求不断被释放，市场规模越来越聚集，阿里推出了淘宝特价版，意图抢回这一领域。</p><p>淘宝特价版上线仅半年，就积累7000万月活跃用户。但这一领域早已是拼多多天下。在拼多度与新兴电商的夹击下，刚刚踏入这一领地的阿里想分得一杯羹，似乎并不容易。</p>","source":"lsy1605684985987","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n电商三巨头格局生变：阿里巴巴巨大优势或已不再\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-11-18 15:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.kerankj.com/page/6368-65.html><strong>炣燃科技</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>炣燃科技10月17日讯（宏斌）日前，电商三巨头阿里、京东与拼多多Q3财报发布。从财报上看，三大巨头之间竞争态势似乎已发生变化。一直以来，阿里巴巴一直有着巨大的优势。尽管是竞争对手，但多年来阿里如同一座不可逾越的高山，京东跟随，拼多多追赶，如今，阿里巴巴的巨大优势或在逐渐消失。营收方面，在三大巨头中，依旧是京东、阿里巴巴两强格局占主体。具体来看，阿里巴巴和京东的营收规模早已是千亿级别，甚至在冲击...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.kerankj.com/page/6368-65.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a746c3cafcd9060e2314117d8d1f547c","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","JD":"京东","PDD":"拼多多"},"source_url":"https://www.kerankj.com/page/6368-65.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2084443899","content_text":"炣燃科技10月17日讯（宏斌）日前，电商三巨头阿里、京东与拼多多Q3财报发布。从财报上看，三大巨头之间竞争态势似乎已发生变化。一直以来，阿里巴巴一直有着巨大的优势。尽管是竞争对手，但多年来阿里如同一座不可逾越的高山，京东跟随，拼多多追赶，如今，阿里巴巴的巨大优势或在逐渐消失。营收方面，在三大巨头中，依旧是京东、阿里巴巴两强格局占主体。具体来看，阿里巴巴和京东的营收规模早已是千亿级别，甚至在冲击2000亿大关，而拼多多仅仅维系在百亿左右，短时间无法在规模上和阿里、京东并驾齐驱。但并意味着拼多多被压制。11月12日，拼多多发布第三季度财报，第三季度营收超142亿元，同比增长89%。在用户增长层面，拼多多APP的平均月活用户数已达6.434亿，单季度增长了7460万，较去年同期增长50%。也即是说，拼多多在三巨头中成长是最快的。但随着规模的逐步提升，增速也降至了100%以内。尽管如此，纵向比较依然很惊人。2019年同期，拼多多的用户是5.363亿，但截止今年9月底，拼多多平台年活跃买家数已高达7.313亿，相当于半个中国都在使用拼多多。换句话说：仅一年时间，拼多多就新增了1.95亿用户。按照这个发展势头，用不了太久，拼多多就可以超过阿里的用户体量。不过，阿里巴巴，依然是最强大的。三家巨头中，阿里巴巴是最多元化的企业，这或许是当互联网人口红利逐步触及天花板的大背景下，利好阿里巴巴的一点。今年第三季度，阿里来自核心电商的收入占比降到了85%以下，而云计算占比则达到了9.61%。更重要的是，今年第三季度，阿里巴巴云计算业务的营收达到148.99亿元，同比增长60%，这样的增速是惊人的。京东也在调整业务线。分析显示，来自商品收入的部分占到京东整体的83.9%，物流收入占比则达到了7.34%，去年同期则仅为4.45%。与此同时，京东的新增用户也在高速增长。财报显示，截至2020年9月30日，京东过去12个月的活跃购买用户数达到4.416亿，同比增长32.1%，增速创下过去三年来的新高，一年净增了1亿多活跃用户。其中，近80%新增活跃用户来自于下沉新兴市场。新兴市场已经成为三巨头新战场。很显然，谁拥有更多的用户谁就可能占据更大的市场。即使在净利润上阿里保持领先，京东位于第二，拼多多才首次实现盈利，但未来阿里巴巴一家独大的电商格局，必然会受到重大冲击。对比过去连续十二个季度的用户增长数据后，三季度阿里的移动月活用户增长几乎陷入了停滞状态，过去三年里，阿里每个季度的用户增长量除了2018年第二季度外，都维持在2000万以。但是本季度，这个数字直接掉到了700万。阿里感到的危险，特别是下沉市场的争夺。在此之前，阿里巴巴是瞧不上这一“低端市场”，但随着市场需求不断被释放，市场规模越来越聚集，阿里推出了淘宝特价版，意图抢回这一领域。淘宝特价版上线仅半年，就积累7000万月活跃用户。但这一领域早已是拼多多天下。在拼多度与新兴电商的夹击下，刚刚踏入这一领地的阿里想分得一杯羹，似乎并不容易。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":303141923,"gmtCreate":1603071561562,"gmtModify":1703828536906,"author":{"id":"3494206700188485","authorId":"3494206700188485","name":"炒股的小学生","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3494206700188485","authorIdStr":"3494206700188485"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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21:47","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"2021审判日？为什么不看好股市及商品超级周期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1100080179","media":"泷韬全球宏观","summary":"美国复工对商品，或部分周期股，比如化工实际是利空。","content":"<p>作者：袁玉玮</p><p>去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。</p><p>但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内疾 —— 理论上会向后延伸分布，除非经济会快速繁荣（这非常不现实）。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/873e66b2fb1140bf4542722170c1b634\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/90d600bd87df2e4cf7aae3b231feea75\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么看空新兴市场，尤其土耳其，拉美股汇双杀</b></p><p>美债收益率是全球资产定价的锚。</p><p>无论你如何否认外力的作用，美国在全球的金融影响力目前无人匹敌。另外，2016年之后的广义价值投资，茅指数崛起，其实也是A股对外资开放后，投资风格机构化，长期化，被动化，基本面驱动的过程。</p><p><b>我个人认为，在内部资产虚火旺盛，充斥泡沫，过度高估（万得全A-ex银行石化PE达到41倍）的时候，外部因素影响一定超过内部因素</b>，从全球宏观的角度全方位评估风险。外部任何风吹草动都可能是压倒骆驼的稻草。</p><p>美元泛滥，发达国家0/负利率，在去年推动了全球资产泡沫，那么当美债利率上涨的时候，其实就是每个国家的“资产管理人”要面临一定hurdle rate才能收业绩费的考核 —— 潮退了，我们才知道谁没游泳。我们之前选了历史上一贯有债务危机传统的土耳其，拉美作为做空标的，近期暴跌之前，他们都面临疫情恶化，或国内恶性通胀的危险。作为石油产出国，巴西甚至害怕石油涨价恶化通胀，撤了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PBR\">巴西石油公司</a>的CEO，通胀风险可见一斑。</p><p>符合这2个标准的还有印度，俄罗斯，但因为：</p><p>前者的种姓制度根本忽略底层的“人”的生死，没有道德和经济包袱，疫情对他们来说就像一场内部优胜劣汰，所以从资产上很难观测波动；</p><p>而后者由于受益于石油上涨，而且前几年未雨绸缪，黄金储备高</p><p>—— 所以这2个做空逻辑都有瑕疵。</p><p>为了对冲EM风险，我们选择了多东亚/空土耳其和拉美。和Druckenmiller的观点一样，我们从去年在EM相对看好东亚 —— 得益于疫情控制，尤其在科技，新能源处于优势。但他说的买东亚/空美国，我觉得还是过于激进。</p><p>我们在18年就说过，美国一向在美元上短空长多，割EM韭菜。去年底，全世界都看空美元的时候，美元不跌，拥挤的空头们就该反省了。这也是为什么我们今年不那么看空美元，看空EM的原因之一。盲目长期看空美元，是危险的。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/579cf18d938f1606e8bbe2e91f397a98\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么不看好商品超级周期</b></p><p>商品超级周期？这个逻辑太荒谬。</p><p>历史上的商品超级周期都伴随人类经济的繁荣。最近一次由于中国加入WTO和全球一体化，变成世界工厂，叠加中国的地产经济驱动的消费升级和财富效应。</p><p>而<b>中国推动上一轮2000-2007超级商品周期，有很多精密的条件或偶然性</b>：</p><ol><li><p>文化：任劳任怨，勤劳致富，炫富，底层忍耐贫富差距能力强</p></li><li><p>基建</p></li><li><p>政府高效</p></li><li><p>中国经济的反身性：地产/通胀/工作效率/财富效应/消费</p></li><li><p>上次还有美国地产泡沫和金砖五国同时崛起的大背景</p></li></ol><p>我们至少在未来10-20年内看不到任何一个地区或国家可以复制中国模式：</p><p>印度和非洲人认命，无欲无求，或懒惰的天性，</p><p>欧美也都困扰于长期低成长，通缩和贫富差距扩大，低欲望；</p><p>根本无法复制2000-2007的中国。</p><p>而且，<b>2008年之后，全球央行用放水来保持经济相对稳定，实际很大部分得益于商品的通缩。在没有新兴国家替代中国驱动的条件下，商品如果进入超级周期，我看只有全球恶性通胀背景下才有可能 —— 那么离战争也就不远了</b>。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bafed14735b6f7bca7e02e39e60ef0ac\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecd9e2823d5e4c1c0ac267dcd41fc486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>另外，本轮商品上涨，主要由于石油和铜上涨，但</p><ul><li><p>石油涨价因为供给侧；</p></li><li><p>铜，我们看到有类似GME的gamma squeeze，美股，A股，铜期货...的跨市从虚拟向实体操纵价格，做局的嫌疑。</p></li></ul><p>这2个品种的内在逻辑无法完成领导商品牛市。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/451727453c577f905b52af9a4a4b56b6\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"602\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/816b17c9ab75a6ef70e02a258d1697d5\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"601\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么不看好化工龙头</b></p><p>去年，驱动国内商品牛市有很多偶然因素：</p><p>2020商品上涨主要基于 —— 全球央行放水 x 中国复工/苏 x 订单流向中国 x 欧洲居家办公导致的买房和装修、家电需求 x 疫苗后复工强预期 —— 这些因素具备高度的偶然性，短期性，无法长期复制；长期上涨需要经济和消费需求实质性改善，我们目前没看到。</p><p>化工龙头去年享受了低油价，和美国去年石化产能被疫情冲击。这两个因素在今年都不存在。尤其美国复工，对国内化工是利空，而不是利多。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/026025199f3a4dae623db7c47c45afc8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"609\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/641302e4981a313c34bf19ac25ebc2ae\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"603\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>为什么港股有风险</b></p><p>年后的港股行情实际还是恒生科技股驱动，主要是南下抱团的懒惰思维。重夺港股定价权，是善良的价值投资者的一厢情愿。</p><p>那么，港股实际同时暴露在四大风险：</p><ul><li><p>反垄断</p></li><li><p>茅指数联动</p></li><li><p>通胀预期和美债利率上涨</p></li><li><p>美元升值</p></li></ul><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a33d97c677841a52863d8a370d0a9486\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>综上，2021年，无论美股，A股，港股，都和2018年非常相似。但鉴于现在的高层领导强大的纠错能力，而且早已提前预警，并且要经济维稳、金融维稳；2021，不太可能完全复制2018。</p><p><b>Gamma Squeeze,&nbsp;散户，SPAC，ARK,&nbsp;网红基金</b></p><p>Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin.&nbsp;That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher.&nbsp;Recently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market.&nbsp;—— 摘自MarketWatch</p><p>我们去年分析过，ARK去年业绩很大程度上，得益于</p><p>①0利率和负利率盛行，导致资金对成长股和中小盘股的追捧；</p><p>②疫情实际 =&nbsp;大自然的供给侧改革，摧枯拉朽了受制于封城的旧经济 ——&nbsp;对科技互联网是天上掉馅饼；</p><p>③Tesla高度暴露，但Tesla表现实际大部分来源于逼空效果，和空头减仓有高度的正相关性 —— Tesla股票有一定的金融资产属性，某种程度上，它和Bitcoin很类似，都是资金抱团的结果。</p><p>④中小盘暴露和低质量暴露：ARK持有大量中小盘股和资产负债表弱的股票。这其实得益于低利率催化了市场参与者的风险偏好，和散户羊群的偏好高度重叠。</p><p>⑤AUM扩张+散户跟踪→反身效应：ARK由于今年的超群业绩，导致资金流入不断加速，形成了正反馈效果 ——&nbsp;后入的资金推动持仓进入正反馈。另外，由于ARK的基金持仓透明公布，吸引了众多散户跟风，又加强了正反馈。</p><p>年初，A股的网红基金其实也具备ARK的特征，实际大部分是类被动risk premia风格因子的被动投资，他们得益于央行放水的大beta，alpha含量并不高。而且散户的追涨网红基金，实际等同于散户在GME期权上long gamma，短期有大量的杠杆效应。他们实际不是价值投资，而是在和时间，和内在价值作对，想从未来攫取暴利，短期套现。</p><p>ARK目前不断抛出大盘股，买入小盘股，作最后一搏。但是我们观测到:</p><ul><li><p>ARK的交易量明显下降，</p></li><li><p>看涨期权市场已经显著萎缩 = 散户资产去gamma，去杠杆，缩水，Biden发完补助，我们并没观测到市场预期的散户大军的进场。</p></li><li><p>本周，美债收益率下降，一线科技股大幅反弹，但gamma squeeze标的却出现暴跌现象（讽刺的是，A股的一线龙头 —— 茅指数在和美国抱团票 —— 垃圾股，二线科技股共振）</p></li></ul><p>昨晚，Yellen和Powell又双双谈到目前存在资产泡沫（US Treasury Sec. Yellen: Asset Valuations Are High By Historical Measures）。</p><p>一场金融\"马陵道\"围剿的天时，地利，人和，也许都具备了。我们“慭慭然”，小心观测。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c594d0f35d546b7e772525962725ebdb\" tg-width=\"491\" tg-height=\"377\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cb27b96b2dec4cfd8ba23c1c66febb19\" tg-width=\"490\" tg-height=\"376\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>西方传说上帝会在审判日那天赏善罚恶；</p><p>我们并不预期2021一定是大熊市，</p><p>但2021很可能是宏观层面均值回归的一年</p><p>—— 表现在各个层面：</p><p>时间，</p><p>地域，</p><p>供应链，</p><p>估值，</p><p>风格，</p><p>人性，</p><p>欲念，</p><p>地球引力...</p><p>“潮退了，你才知道谁在裸泳。”</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c514a790774c86cfa09ba0d39d7de12\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"565\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>图片：visualcapitalist.com</p>","source":"lsy1584520488112","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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}\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2021审判日？为什么不看好股市及商品超级周期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-24 21:47 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg><strong>泷韬全球宏观</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>作者：袁玉玮去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/367fa068a00cbca94908e862748783f0","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/5jXSZ-z0VZFR0UObkhQfkg","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1100080179","content_text":"作者：袁玉玮去年，由全球央行放水驱动的股，债，商品三牛，导致无论国内外，大多数投资者都对2021过度乐观。但是，从宏观基本面来说，2020年股市其实没有基本面支持（我不反对个别行业）。去年的牛市，其实是疫情诱发的金融危机和经济危机大背景下，央行看跌期权 —— 央行为了切断经济危机里的风险传导链，救市压制资产下行波动。那么，体弱内需的经济去年被人为压制的波动 —— 就像令狐冲被一群庸医用外力压制的内疾 —— 理论上会向后延伸分布，除非经济会快速繁荣（这非常不现实）。为什么看空新兴市场，尤其土耳其，拉美股汇双杀美债收益率是全球资产定价的锚。无论你如何否认外力的作用，美国在全球的金融影响力目前无人匹敌。另外，2016年之后的广义价值投资，茅指数崛起，其实也是A股对外资开放后，投资风格机构化，长期化，被动化，基本面驱动的过程。我个人认为，在内部资产虚火旺盛，充斥泡沫，过度高估（万得全A-ex银行石化PE达到41倍）的时候，外部因素影响一定超过内部因素，从全球宏观的角度全方位评估风险。外部任何风吹草动都可能是压倒骆驼的稻草。美元泛滥，发达国家0/负利率，在去年推动了全球资产泡沫，那么当美债利率上涨的时候，其实就是每个国家的“资产管理人”要面临一定hurdle rate才能收业绩费的考核 —— 潮退了，我们才知道谁没游泳。我们之前选了历史上一贯有债务危机传统的土耳其，拉美作为做空标的，近期暴跌之前，他们都面临疫情恶化，或国内恶性通胀的危险。作为石油产出国，巴西甚至害怕石油涨价恶化通胀，撤了巴西石油公司的CEO，通胀风险可见一斑。符合这2个标准的还有印度，俄罗斯，但因为：前者的种姓制度根本忽略底层的“人”的生死，没有道德和经济包袱，疫情对他们来说就像一场内部优胜劣汰，所以从资产上很难观测波动；而后者由于受益于石油上涨，而且前几年未雨绸缪，黄金储备高—— 所以这2个做空逻辑都有瑕疵。为了对冲EM风险，我们选择了多东亚/空土耳其和拉美。和Druckenmiller的观点一样，我们从去年在EM相对看好东亚 —— 得益于疫情控制，尤其在科技，新能源处于优势。但他说的买东亚/空美国，我觉得还是过于激进。我们在18年就说过，美国一向在美元上短空长多，割EM韭菜。去年底，全世界都看空美元的时候，美元不跌，拥挤的空头们就该反省了。这也是为什么我们今年不那么看空美元，看空EM的原因之一。盲目长期看空美元，是危险的。为什么不看好商品超级周期商品超级周期？这个逻辑太荒谬。历史上的商品超级周期都伴随人类经济的繁荣。最近一次由于中国加入WTO和全球一体化，变成世界工厂，叠加中国的地产经济驱动的消费升级和财富效应。而中国推动上一轮2000-2007超级商品周期，有很多精密的条件或偶然性：文化：任劳任怨，勤劳致富，炫富，底层忍耐贫富差距能力强基建政府高效中国经济的反身性：地产/通胀/工作效率/财富效应/消费上次还有美国地产泡沫和金砖五国同时崛起的大背景我们至少在未来10-20年内看不到任何一个地区或国家可以复制中国模式：印度和非洲人认命，无欲无求，或懒惰的天性，欧美也都困扰于长期低成长，通缩和贫富差距扩大，低欲望；根本无法复制2000-2007的中国。而且，2008年之后，全球央行用放水来保持经济相对稳定，实际很大部分得益于商品的通缩。在没有新兴国家替代中国驱动的条件下，商品如果进入超级周期，我看只有全球恶性通胀背景下才有可能 —— 那么离战争也就不远了。另外，本轮商品上涨，主要由于石油和铜上涨，但石油涨价因为供给侧；铜，我们看到有类似GME的gamma squeeze，美股，A股，铜期货...的跨市从虚拟向实体操纵价格，做局的嫌疑。这2个品种的内在逻辑无法完成领导商品牛市。为什么不看好化工龙头去年，驱动国内商品牛市有很多偶然因素：2020商品上涨主要基于 —— 全球央行放水 x 中国复工/苏 x 订单流向中国 x 欧洲居家办公导致的买房和装修、家电需求 x 疫苗后复工强预期 —— 这些因素具备高度的偶然性，短期性，无法长期复制；长期上涨需要经济和消费需求实质性改善，我们目前没看到。化工龙头去年享受了低油价，和美国去年石化产能被疫情冲击。这两个因素在今年都不存在。尤其美国复工，对国内化工是利空，而不是利多。为什么港股有风险年后的港股行情实际还是恒生科技股驱动，主要是南下抱团的懒惰思维。重夺港股定价权，是善良的价值投资者的一厢情愿。那么，港股实际同时暴露在四大风险：反垄断茅指数联动通胀预期和美债利率上涨美元升值综上，2021年，无论美股，A股，港股，都和2018年非常相似。但鉴于现在的高层领导强大的纠错能力，而且早已提前预警，并且要经济维稳、金融维稳；2021，不太可能完全复制2018。Gamma Squeeze, 散户，SPAC，ARK, 网红基金Mizuho Securities is the latest to push this idea, with a survey suggesting that 10% of the $380 billion in stimulus windfalls will be invested in stocks and bitcoin. That, according to Wall Street, means that about $40 billion in extra money will “come into the stock market,” driving it higher. Recently Deutsche Bank estimated young individual investors were ready to pour $170 billion into the market. —— 摘自MarketWatch我们去年分析过，ARK去年业绩很大程度上，得益于①0利率和负利率盛行，导致资金对成长股和中小盘股的追捧；②疫情实际 = 大自然的供给侧改革，摧枯拉朽了受制于封城的旧经济 —— 对科技互联网是天上掉馅饼；③Tesla高度暴露，但Tesla表现实际大部分来源于逼空效果，和空头减仓有高度的正相关性 —— 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