高价收鸭毛鳖壳的个人主页 - 老虎社区

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

知行合一很重要

IP属地：浙江

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高价收鸭毛鳖壳

02-14

$Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$ $Marathon Digital Holdings Inc(MARA)$

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

01-19

$三倍做多标普生物-Direxion(LABU)$ 多跌一点再跌一点多跌一点我想上车了

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

01-11

$MARA 20240119 50.0 CALL$

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2023-12-01

学习理解黄峥

拼多多的今天，黄峥上市前就想清楚了

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2021-07-15

$优信(UXIN)$跳高长阴空军发令枪

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2020-04-06

$Redwood Trust Inc(RWT)$ 龟龟中概真是信任危机了

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2019-06-11

$Materion(MTRN)$落后产能都要被替换，在贸易战的背景下是竞争力的优胜劣汰，也是行业生产力的整合，ngk也要收了，作为国内高端材料的唯一稳定来源，我相信现在已经是轻仓入场的时机了

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2019-03-01

$蔚来(NIO)$明天去试驾ES6，顺便去体验中心看看，产品不够，体验来凑，这个模式还是可行的，希望不要搞得一地鸡毛

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2019-02-14

$Materion(MTRN)$今年金属事业部卖的很好啊都得提前三个月订才有货

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2019-02-14

$阿莱技术公司(ALGN)$突破区间买入一点试试

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2019-02-08

$美光科技(MU)$空对了可惜这次信心不足没有实盘上

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2019-01-25

$美光科技(MU)$止损平仓啦市场又给我上一课

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2019-01-18

$佳源国际控股(02768)$4.5买的卧槽真香！

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2019-01-08

$吉利汽车(00175)$小曹娥的新厂要投产啦不过最近集团财务状况不太好（小道消息）

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2018-12-08

$lululemon athletica(LULU)$睡了一觉炸了。。。这么个套发还是不割了硬抗吧

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2018-11-05

$京东(JD)$JD给我朝死里跌东子该死了最起码辞任董事吧这jb国只要有钱犯法的都有优待

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2018-09-20

$美团点评-W(03690)$给我跌！

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2018-09-20

$小赢科技(XYF)$凭什么亏钱了就要叫让理性炒股了赢钱了怎么不叫理性呢？我才不要这种理性炒股赢了就该哈哈笑亏了就该骂他娘！

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2018-09-14

$创升控股(02680)$玩你妈

高价收鸭毛鳖壳

2018-09-13

$Materion(MTRN)$买一点支持一下老大

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理解黄峥","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/247349127929880","repostId":"2388940200","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2388940200","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1701408016,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2388940200?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-12-01 13:20","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"拼多多的今天，黄峥上市前就想清楚了","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2388940200","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"早在上市前的采访中，黄峥就表示，拼多多不会做“天猫”。不管商业模式怎样，最终看的还是用户体验，还是性价比综合。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>早在上市前的采访中，黄峥就表示，拼多多不会做“天猫”。不管商业模式怎样，最终看的还是用户体验，还是性价比综合。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">拼多多市值超越电商一哥阿里，成为美股市值第二大中概股。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">隔夜美股收盘，拼多多收涨4.03%，报147.44美元，创2021年3月以来收盘新高。11月28日涨18.08%之后，拼多多连续两天走高，<strong>市值达1958.87亿美元，正式超越阿里巴巴</strong>。截至收盘，阿里巴巴市值为1907.03亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">今年9月以来，拼多多飙涨42%，年初迄今更是累计上涨76%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c8ec5c98212cc8d32543792d61504779\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">11月28日，拼多多发布Q3业绩，营收688.4亿元同比大增94%，再创历史新高；经调整净利润超预期达到170.27亿元，同比增长37%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在营收构成方面，交易服务营收291.53亿元，同比增长315%。其中TEMU表现十分亮眼，分析称市场可以逐步把TEMU的估值定价到拼多多估值当中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">销售和营销费用同比上涨55%，研发费用再创新高达到28.5亿元，但人力和研发成本同比继续下滑。因此有分析指出，拼多多的高性价比心智在强化，且有向中高端人群扩散的趋势，手机、家电、化妆品等单价较高的标品在百亿补贴的加持下，逐渐走进更多中高端消费群的视野。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">2018年7月26日，在拼多多上市前夕，华尔街见闻与拼多多创始人黄峥进行了对话，他曾表示，未来，拼多多可能不会做“天猫”，而是开发适合自己的新的创新场景。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>换句话说，拼多多创立之初对标的就并非阿里。</strong>采访中，黄峥透露“不存在和淘宝竞争的问题”。因为用户定位不同，但是不管商业模式怎样，最终看的还是用户体验，还是性价比综合。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在谈及拼多多的商业模式时，黄峥将拼多多比喻成“卖水果的”，运过来可能有坏的，但单个价钱便宜很多，普通老百姓抱怨归抱怨，但下次还是会买——他认为：谁都希望既注重里子也注重面子，但当二者不可兼得时，<strong>大多数的老百姓先注重里子。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这或许是拼多多能在电商红海中站稳脚跟的重要原因。回顾对话，可以发现今天的拼多多，黄峥上市前都想清楚了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以下是2018年华尔街见闻对话黄峥全文：</p><blockquote><p><strong>上市为更好沟通 不关心股价</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：为什么选择在美国上市？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：第一时间比较短，第二A股的上市条件每个地区不一样。当前来看在海外上市最顺，而且全球前5大市值公司都在纳斯达克上市。拼多多最开始的时候和其他的互联网公司一样，就是ABC轮就是外资机构。几乎都是外资结构。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：为什么现在上市？跟当前资本环境有关吗？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：我们看1000个创业公司，拼多多还是很特别的一个，特别在哪里呢？第一个是它的商业形态本身，有很强的社会属性、偏公众性，它的规模又迅速达到一个很大的量。其实拼多多现象已经变成一个社会现象，这是它的规模导致的。好听点叫社会影响或者社会责任。我们自己肩上的责任也会更重，也是希望能够把自己放在更强的监督之下。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">还有就是我自己是理工科出身的，以前从来不知道怎么和文科生沟通，所以拼多多做了两三年，很少做沟通会。因为你沟通少，互相缺乏理解，很多东西讲出来的可信度反而低。所以我想上市是一个好的方式，把家里所有的东西都翻出来，在阳光下晒出来。通过有公信力的机构，用大家都认的流程来认定它，这更加有公信力，一定程度上降低了我们的负担，有利于大家的理解，我觉得这是最重要的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">作为这个形态的公司，如果再过三年、五年也没有太大差别，还不如把这个公司放到监管之下。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资本市场冷和热是相对的。再冷的时候也是有人投资的，再热的时候也有人不投资。我自己本来没感觉资本环境有什么大的变化。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：拼多多在路演的时候，机构投资人最关心的是什么？他们最不能理解拼多多的地方是什么？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：我觉得有时候是这样的，像我们做公司，最容易出错的地方是“腰部”，它既不是最一线，也不是最宏观。拼多多一方面是一个新生事物，起来得很快，突破了一些利益格局。在这样的情况下必然会有相当一些人，竞争对手也好或者是别人，有一个接受的过程。他也有一定的偏见，不是说主观上恶意的偏见，因为他所处的位置和状态不适应，会有这个状态。所以拼多多最一线的消费者，他是最清楚的，每天都在看10个芒果有没有一个坏的，到底是在变好还是变差，他是很清楚的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：对现在的股价，觉得超出了预期了吗？关于开盘有什么想法？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：关于股价，我还真没有特别去想，没有真的预期。第一，拼多多很早期。但是整体的上市规模都不小。第二个，我深信价格围绕价值波动，要专注做好自己的价值，波动真的很小，不会有任何实际性影响，所以越在乎会越影响你的心理状况。</p><p><strong>心动过更高定价，但不想占人便宜</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：这次拼多多股票认购还是比较火爆的，拼多多有权行使提升20%的权利，但是为什么还是坚持以19美元不变？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：其实也心动过，其实（现在）也不少钱了。这也是一个好的机会向大家表明我们的价值观。我在招股书里面写了几条，其中有一条我不占别人便宜，即使我能购买（股票）。因为我们本身公布了价格区间，16到19美元，正常来讲，投资人本来下单的时候，正常他是不知道你会涨价的。你突然之间冒出来几十倍认购的时候，他也没有办法，如果你涨价的话他也只能接受，在一定程度上，稍微有点占他便宜，因为我处在一个有利位置。但是在他下订单之前是他处在有利位置，他把钱给我了，我还要收手续费，有点自我利益最大化了。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：为什么这次的认购这么火爆，你有心理预期吗？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：应该说不意外，我觉得有时候站在远的地方，心态会更好一些。一方面资本市场相对来说更加成熟，更加理性一些，受情绪化的东西影响少。而且离中国有一定距离，更多会站在相对宏观的趋势和背后理性这个角度来思考这个问题。当然，确实我觉得我作为投资人也会很兴奋，拼多多在很短时间内做到不可忽略的体量。这种体量和增长一定程度上不是光靠你一个团队能力就能搞得定的，确实有很大程度上有幸运的成分在里面。所以我说，拼多多现在还处在初期阶段，还有很大的空间。</p><p><strong>拼多多未来增长空间在哪里？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：现在用户规模到三亿，获取用户的成本从11块/人涨到近今年一季度的49元/人，流量成本越来越贵，商家端的成本也会提升，拼多多未来的增长空间在哪里？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：如果你去看所谓的流量成本的话，财报里面我们marketing（市场营销）的开销是突然爆增的。假设用户获取能力变弱，成本应该是平缓上升，不是突然跳上去的。跳上去的主要原因，第一个是我们广告收入增加，广告收入增加后，在增长期还是要把这个钱用好，总不能现在就开始分红。那就要去寻找长期来讲对公司内生价值有帮助的东西。当下来讲，可能品牌广告对当下的拼多多是有利的。因为拼多多相对于老牌电商，在用户心中，信任度、知名度都弱一些，从朋友这里听到拼多多和在CCTV上看到拼多多，还是有点不一样。所以我们花很多钱做品牌广告，管理层觉得这是一个长期投资。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">如果持续花这个钱两三年以后，拼多多在消费者心目当中会变成一个信誉度比较高的一个品牌。相当于你买一块无形资产，但是在财务报表上，它只能作为营销费用。如果你平常心去想这个事情。比如你看到世界杯的广告，世界杯它的场景是在大屏幕前面喝着啤酒，吃着鸡翅，哪有什么闲工夫去下载APP，这是不大可能的。但是这个场景里面有拼多多出现了，在他脑子里面是增加印象了，而且他会看到你和世界杯联系在一起，他对你的信任度会提高，这是一个长期潜移默化的过程。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：目前拼多多的主要收入来源就是广告和佣金，未来是否还会持续这一模式？或是寻找哪些新的收入增长点？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：阿里已经做过，证明说这个模式本身不做任何新的改变就可以用。当前没有特别认真去细究我们要怎么赚更多的钱，这个商业模式足够成熟，体量足够大。</p><p><strong>用户如何继续增长？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：拼多多用户到了3亿，是已经进入了一个增长还是相对平稳期？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：现在还是蛮快的，因为在中国淘宝太有名了，没有人不知道，所以你这三亿人都知道或者用过淘宝，既然你已经在一些场景下开始用拼多多，那为什么美国用户不会呢？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：总共网民才7亿，现在咱们已经有3亿了，按照现在的增长速度，可能今年下半年就碰到天花板了。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：用户不足的时候，你肯定是优先用户发展，用户到了一定程度，你的商业又会有迭代过程。用户端的增长是指数型的增长，但是在供应链这些苦活累活上是偏线性增长的。 所以你会看到用户的增长速度是大过单个用户年消费量的增长，虽然都在涨，但是一个是指数性，一个是线性的。所以通常来讲是先有足够的用户，然后再商业迭代，然后是平均每个人的消费上涨，应该有一个先后次序在里头。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：为什么现在拼多多大多数的用户在下沉城市？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：我们的用户大概是3.4个亿，差不多是阿里的一半。这一半的用户，我猜想绝大部分都是知道淘宝并且用过淘宝的。在我的脑子里，应该中国人没有人不知道淘宝。今天的绝大部分用户，其实在我看来都是被（淘宝）转化过来的。不是说他100%不用这个淘宝，是因为拼多多现在创造了一个新的场景，以前没有很好的平台、工具能够满足他，然后新的场景下拼多多变成第一名的公司。</p><p><strong>拼多多的发展有幸运成分</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：招股书里写给股东的信提到本分，但是拼多多在三岁之前就要上市，你怎么界定本分和野心？最近很多中概股一上市就破发，你怎么看？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：我没有特别想这个事情，因为别人看我有没有野心，对我影响很小。第二，我永远只站在拼多多的角度去想怎么样做对拼多多的长期发展有利的事。我也做了不止一个公司，拼多多肯定是发展最快的一个，其中有很大的幸运成分，不是每个人、每个团队都有这种幸运的。就算你用功，就算你很厉害，时机未到也是不行的。这种感觉不是我们团队的因素，更多的是在这个因素之下，市场推动的。</p><p><strong>拼多多可能不会做“天猫”</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：未来会不会随着用户扩大变成分类产品，比如像淘宝孵化了天猫这样相对品质更好更稳定的？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：我们可能不会去做天猫，因为淘宝是搜索模式。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：像淘宝和天猫，拼多多会不会也有一个针对五环用户更好的产品？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：最终你会得到你想要的，但是我们的展现形式和升级形式不是像它这样。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：拼多多在做消费降级吗？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：我不喜欢这个词，不知道是谁想出来这个词的，从什么角度在看这个问题，反过来讲，我刚才讲消费升级，我觉得当前很多人的理解我也是不太赞同。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第一，比如像上海这样的城市，根本就不需要升级成为天天都用法国香皂，我觉得日常生活信息已经是世界一流生活城市水平了，你还要怎么升级？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">第二，每个人的升级是不一样的，有的人可能觉得我没有厨房纸，我要买几张厨房纸，我要升级，有的人搞天然纯色就是升级，不同人的升级是不同的。</p><p><strong>同意刘强东说法：最终看用户体验</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：如何看待刘强东说不在乎商业模式，在乎用户体验，在中国购买三次就知道拼多多与京东的区别？你们私下是朋友吗？在商业上有没有合作？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：根本上认同刘强东的讲法。最终看用户体验，看性价比综合。我不知道刘强东接受采访的具体场景。拼多多的成长就是这样一个结果，典型的例子，我们卖水果，新鲜的芒果运过来肯定有坏的，因为中国的快递不是为水果而生。这种现状下，顾客肯定会不开心，所以会抱怨要求部分退款，但同时吃到的芒果也确实有比较新鲜。第二，单个芒果的价钱便宜很多。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对普通老百姓来讲，会抱怨卖的商品，退款也是要退款，但是下次还会再买。谁都希望既注重里子也注重面子，当两者不可兼得的时候，大多数的老百姓先注重里子。先说这个东西到底行不行，然后再说这个东西我可不可以购买。物质生活得不到满足，不可能有精神生活。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在中国的现状来讲，我觉得最主要是不均衡问题。所以首先是追求消费的个性化，差异化和公平。我印象中，刘强东有一次采访，讲了一个现象，国富论里面提到的，就是越穷的地方越落后的地方东西越贵，而越富的地方越便宜，这个现象是广泛存在的。我觉得拼多多在拉平消费这点上是有梦想的。</p><p><strong>与阿里、腾讯的关系</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：能否谈一下和淘宝的错位竞争？拼多多将会怎么升级？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：不存在和淘宝竞争的问题。我们是不一样的用户。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">未来升级有两个方面，一个是前端的交互模式，能不能更有趣，从微小的创新里获得更大的收益；或者应该有更多不同的场景。“拼团”这种场景很常见，小区里也有，理论上也有更多的形态和消费场景出现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">比如现在我们上线了“多多果园”这种东西，也是很有意思的。把游戏、娱乐和购物有点融合在一起。你可以浇树、还可以偷朋友的水。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：拼多多发展过程中，腾讯扮演什么样的角色，怎么形容腾讯和拼多多的关系？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：在前面一年半腾讯是没有投资的，所以在那个时候我们的发展对微信的依赖更高。这说明腾讯品牌比较有影响力，那时候腾讯已投资了很多电商，不光是拼多多。那时候我们没有受到不公平的待遇，腾讯入股之后，我们也不寻求更多对我们有利的东西，这对整个生态未必是好的。但是当然了，拼多多现在的体量很大，对微信支付和整个商业化，相对来说，扮演了越来越重要的作用。商业合作的领域会越来越多，相互依赖性也会提升。</p><p><strong>不去美国敲钟不会遗憾</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：为什么设在两地敲钟？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：以前也没做过。另外一方面，毕竟很多人去美国不方便，对于我来讲，如果有机会和消费者、员工，包括媒体，以前帮助过我们的人能够在一起的话，感觉更好一点，比自己一个人跑到那个地方、好像这个东西都是我的感觉要好。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：你会觉得遗憾吗？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：一样的，为什么遗憾？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：因为对很多企业家来说觉得是一个很神圣，重要的深刻。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：我还真没有。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>问：敲钟对你来说没有什么特殊的意义？</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">黄峥：这个东西就是一个过程，它是一个形式，不影响实质，我敲一下又不会怎么样。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>拼多多的今天，黄峥上市前就想清楚了</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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class=\"title\">\n拼多多的今天，黄峥上市前就想清楚了\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-01 13:20 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3703258?extract=1><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>早在上市前的采访中，黄峥就表示，拼多多不会做“天猫”。不管商业模式怎样，最终看的还是用户体验，还是性价比综合。拼多多市值超越电商一哥阿里，成为美股市值第二大中概股。隔夜美股收盘，拼多多收涨4.03%，报147.44美元，创2021年3月以来收盘新高。11月28日涨18.08%之后，拼多多连续两天走高，市值达1958.87亿美元，正式超越阿里巴巴。截至收盘，阿里巴巴市值为1907.03亿美元。今年9...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3703258?extract=1\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/586d8bfcfec43f7bde9f5e762e1a2889","relate_stocks":{"LU0348805143.USD":"ALLIANZ ENHANCED ALL CHINA EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4531":"中概回港概念","LU0456827905.SGD":"JPMorgan Funds - China A (acc) SGD","LU0572944931.SGD":"Janus Henderson Horizon China Opportunities A2 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ACC","IE00B0JY6N72.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0034224299.USD":"PINEBRIDGE ASIA EX JAPAN EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://api.jianyuweb.com/apiv1/content/articles/3703258?extract=1","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2388940200","content_text":"早在上市前的采访中，黄峥就表示，拼多多不会做“天猫”。不管商业模式怎样，最终看的还是用户体验，还是性价比综合。拼多多市值超越电商一哥阿里，成为美股市值第二大中概股。隔夜美股收盘，拼多多收涨4.03%，报147.44美元，创2021年3月以来收盘新高。11月28日涨18.08%之后，拼多多连续两天走高，市值达1958.87亿美元，正式超越阿里巴巴。截至收盘，阿里巴巴市值为1907.03亿美元。今年9月以来，拼多多飙涨42%，年初迄今更是累计上涨76%。11月28日，拼多多发布Q3业绩，营收688.4亿元同比大增94%，再创历史新高；经调整净利润超预期达到170.27亿元，同比增长37%。在营收构成方面，交易服务营收291.53亿元，同比增长315%。其中TEMU表现十分亮眼，分析称市场可以逐步把TEMU的估值定价到拼多多估值当中。销售和营销费用同比上涨55%，研发费用再创新高达到28.5亿元，但人力和研发成本同比继续下滑。因此有分析指出，拼多多的高性价比心智在强化，且有向中高端人群扩散的趋势，手机、家电、化妆品等单价较高的标品在百亿补贴的加持下，逐渐走进更多中高端消费群的视野。2018年7月26日，在拼多多上市前夕，华尔街见闻与拼多多创始人黄峥进行了对话，他曾表示，未来，拼多多可能不会做“天猫”，而是开发适合自己的新的创新场景。换句话说，拼多多创立之初对标的就并非阿里。采访中，黄峥透露“不存在和淘宝竞争的问题”。因为用户定位不同，但是不管商业模式怎样，最终看的还是用户体验，还是性价比综合。在谈及拼多多的商业模式时，黄峥将拼多多比喻成“卖水果的”，运过来可能有坏的，但单个价钱便宜很多，普通老百姓抱怨归抱怨，但下次还是会买——他认为：谁都希望既注重里子也注重面子，但当二者不可兼得时，大多数的老百姓先注重里子。这或许是拼多多能在电商红海中站稳脚跟的重要原因。回顾对话，可以发现今天的拼多多，黄峥上市前都想清楚了。以下是2018年华尔街见闻对话黄峥全文：上市为更好沟通 不关心股价问：为什么选择在美国上市？黄峥：第一时间比较短，第二A股的上市条件每个地区不一样。当前来看在海外上市最顺，而且全球前5大市值公司都在纳斯达克上市。拼多多最开始的时候和其他的互联网公司一样，就是ABC轮就是外资机构。几乎都是外资结构。问：为什么现在上市？跟当前资本环境有关吗？黄峥：我们看1000个创业公司，拼多多还是很特别的一个，特别在哪里呢？第一个是它的商业形态本身，有很强的社会属性、偏公众性，它的规模又迅速达到一个很大的量。其实拼多多现象已经变成一个社会现象，这是它的规模导致的。好听点叫社会影响或者社会责任。我们自己肩上的责任也会更重，也是希望能够把自己放在更强的监督之下。还有就是我自己是理工科出身的，以前从来不知道怎么和文科生沟通，所以拼多多做了两三年，很少做沟通会。因为你沟通少，互相缺乏理解，很多东西讲出来的可信度反而低。所以我想上市是一个好的方式，把家里所有的东西都翻出来，在阳光下晒出来。通过有公信力的机构，用大家都认的流程来认定它，这更加有公信力，一定程度上降低了我们的负担，有利于大家的理解，我觉得这是最重要的。作为这个形态的公司，如果再过三年、五年也没有太大差别，还不如把这个公司放到监管之下。资本市场冷和热是相对的。再冷的时候也是有人投资的，再热的时候也有人不投资。我自己本来没感觉资本环境有什么大的变化。问：拼多多在路演的时候，机构投资人最关心的是什么？他们最不能理解拼多多的地方是什么？黄峥：我觉得有时候是这样的，像我们做公司，最容易出错的地方是“腰部”，它既不是最一线，也不是最宏观。拼多多一方面是一个新生事物，起来得很快，突破了一些利益格局。在这样的情况下必然会有相当一些人，竞争对手也好或者是别人，有一个接受的过程。他也有一定的偏见，不是说主观上恶意的偏见，因为他所处的位置和状态不适应，会有这个状态。所以拼多多最一线的消费者，他是最清楚的，每天都在看10个芒果有没有一个坏的，到底是在变好还是变差，他是很清楚的。问：对现在的股价，觉得超出了预期了吗？关于开盘有什么想法？黄峥：关于股价，我还真没有特别去想，没有真的预期。第一，拼多多很早期。但是整体的上市规模都不小。第二个，我深信价格围绕价值波动，要专注做好自己的价值，波动真的很小，不会有任何实际性影响，所以越在乎会越影响你的心理状况。心动过更高定价，但不想占人便宜问：这次拼多多股票认购还是比较火爆的，拼多多有权行使提升20%的权利，但是为什么还是坚持以19美元不变？黄峥：其实也心动过，其实（现在）也不少钱了。这也是一个好的机会向大家表明我们的价值观。我在招股书里面写了几条，其中有一条我不占别人便宜，即使我能购买（股票）。因为我们本身公布了价格区间，16到19美元，正常来讲，投资人本来下单的时候，正常他是不知道你会涨价的。你突然之间冒出来几十倍认购的时候，他也没有办法，如果你涨价的话他也只能接受，在一定程度上，稍微有点占他便宜，因为我处在一个有利位置。但是在他下订单之前是他处在有利位置，他把钱给我了，我还要收手续费，有点自我利益最大化了。问：为什么这次的认购这么火爆，你有心理预期吗？黄峥：应该说不意外，我觉得有时候站在远的地方，心态会更好一些。一方面资本市场相对来说更加成熟，更加理性一些，受情绪化的东西影响少。而且离中国有一定距离，更多会站在相对宏观的趋势和背后理性这个角度来思考这个问题。当然，确实我觉得我作为投资人也会很兴奋，拼多多在很短时间内做到不可忽略的体量。这种体量和增长一定程度上不是光靠你一个团队能力就能搞得定的，确实有很大程度上有幸运的成分在里面。所以我说，拼多多现在还处在初期阶段，还有很大的空间。拼多多未来增长空间在哪里？问：现在用户规模到三亿，获取用户的成本从11块/人涨到近今年一季度的49元/人，流量成本越来越贵，商家端的成本也会提升，拼多多未来的增长空间在哪里？黄峥：如果你去看所谓的流量成本的话，财报里面我们marketing（市场营销）的开销是突然爆增的。假设用户获取能力变弱，成本应该是平缓上升，不是突然跳上去的。跳上去的主要原因，第一个是我们广告收入增加，广告收入增加后，在增长期还是要把这个钱用好，总不能现在就开始分红。那就要去寻找长期来讲对公司内生价值有帮助的东西。当下来讲，可能品牌广告对当下的拼多多是有利的。因为拼多多相对于老牌电商，在用户心中，信任度、知名度都弱一些，从朋友这里听到拼多多和在CCTV上看到拼多多，还是有点不一样。所以我们花很多钱做品牌广告，管理层觉得这是一个长期投资。如果持续花这个钱两三年以后，拼多多在消费者心目当中会变成一个信誉度比较高的一个品牌。相当于你买一块无形资产，但是在财务报表上，它只能作为营销费用。如果你平常心去想这个事情。比如你看到世界杯的广告，世界杯它的场景是在大屏幕前面喝着啤酒，吃着鸡翅，哪有什么闲工夫去下载APP，这是不大可能的。但是这个场景里面有拼多多出现了，在他脑子里面是增加印象了，而且他会看到你和世界杯联系在一起，他对你的信任度会提高，这是一个长期潜移默化的过程。问：目前拼多多的主要收入来源就是广告和佣金，未来是否还会持续这一模式？或是寻找哪些新的收入增长点？黄峥：阿里已经做过，证明说这个模式本身不做任何新的改变就可以用。当前没有特别认真去细究我们要怎么赚更多的钱，这个商业模式足够成熟，体量足够大。用户如何继续增长？问：拼多多用户到了3亿，是已经进入了一个增长还是相对平稳期？黄峥：现在还是蛮快的，因为在中国淘宝太有名了，没有人不知道，所以你这三亿人都知道或者用过淘宝，既然你已经在一些场景下开始用拼多多，那为什么美国用户不会呢？问：总共网民才7亿，现在咱们已经有3亿了，按照现在的增长速度，可能今年下半年就碰到天花板了。黄峥：用户不足的时候，你肯定是优先用户发展，用户到了一定程度，你的商业又会有迭代过程。用户端的增长是指数型的增长，但是在供应链这些苦活累活上是偏线性增长的。 所以你会看到用户的增长速度是大过单个用户年消费量的增长，虽然都在涨，但是一个是指数性，一个是线性的。所以通常来讲是先有足够的用户，然后再商业迭代，然后是平均每个人的消费上涨，应该有一个先后次序在里头。问：为什么现在拼多多大多数的用户在下沉城市？黄峥：我们的用户大概是3.4个亿，差不多是阿里的一半。这一半的用户，我猜想绝大部分都是知道淘宝并且用过淘宝的。在我的脑子里，应该中国人没有人不知道淘宝。今天的绝大部分用户，其实在我看来都是被（淘宝）转化过来的。不是说他100%不用这个淘宝，是因为拼多多现在创造了一个新的场景，以前没有很好的平台、工具能够满足他，然后新的场景下拼多多变成第一名的公司。拼多多的发展有幸运成分问：招股书里写给股东的信提到本分，但是拼多多在三岁之前就要上市，你怎么界定本分和野心？最近很多中概股一上市就破发，你怎么看？黄峥：我没有特别想这个事情，因为别人看我有没有野心，对我影响很小。第二，我永远只站在拼多多的角度去想怎么样做对拼多多的长期发展有利的事。我也做了不止一个公司，拼多多肯定是发展最快的一个，其中有很大的幸运成分，不是每个人、每个团队都有这种幸运的。就算你用功，就算你很厉害，时机未到也是不行的。这种感觉不是我们团队的因素，更多的是在这个因素之下，市场推动的。拼多多可能不会做“天猫”问：未来会不会随着用户扩大变成分类产品，比如像淘宝孵化了天猫这样相对品质更好更稳定的？黄峥：我们可能不会去做天猫，因为淘宝是搜索模式。问：像淘宝和天猫，拼多多会不会也有一个针对五环用户更好的产品？黄峥：最终你会得到你想要的，但是我们的展现形式和升级形式不是像它这样。问：拼多多在做消费降级吗？黄峥：我不喜欢这个词，不知道是谁想出来这个词的，从什么角度在看这个问题，反过来讲，我刚才讲消费升级，我觉得当前很多人的理解我也是不太赞同。第一，比如像上海这样的城市，根本就不需要升级成为天天都用法国香皂，我觉得日常生活信息已经是世界一流生活城市水平了，你还要怎么升级？第二，每个人的升级是不一样的，有的人可能觉得我没有厨房纸，我要买几张厨房纸，我要升级，有的人搞天然纯色就是升级，不同人的升级是不同的。同意刘强东说法：最终看用户体验问：如何看待刘强东说不在乎商业模式，在乎用户体验，在中国购买三次就知道拼多多与京东的区别？你们私下是朋友吗？在商业上有没有合作？黄峥：根本上认同刘强东的讲法。最终看用户体验，看性价比综合。我不知道刘强东接受采访的具体场景。拼多多的成长就是这样一个结果，典型的例子，我们卖水果，新鲜的芒果运过来肯定有坏的，因为中国的快递不是为水果而生。这种现状下，顾客肯定会不开心，所以会抱怨要求部分退款，但同时吃到的芒果也确实有比较新鲜。第二，单个芒果的价钱便宜很多。对普通老百姓来讲，会抱怨卖的商品，退款也是要退款，但是下次还会再买。谁都希望既注重里子也注重面子，当两者不可兼得的时候，大多数的老百姓先注重里子。先说这个东西到底行不行，然后再说这个东西我可不可以购买。物质生活得不到满足，不可能有精神生活。在中国的现状来讲，我觉得最主要是不均衡问题。所以首先是追求消费的个性化，差异化和公平。我印象中，刘强东有一次采访，讲了一个现象，国富论里面提到的，就是越穷的地方越落后的地方东西越贵，而越富的地方越便宜，这个现象是广泛存在的。我觉得拼多多在拉平消费这点上是有梦想的。与阿里、腾讯的关系问：能否谈一下和淘宝的错位竞争？拼多多将会怎么升级？黄峥：不存在和淘宝竞争的问题。我们是不一样的用户。未来升级有两个方面，一个是前端的交互模式，能不能更有趣，从微小的创新里获得更大的收益；或者应该有更多不同的场景。“拼团”这种场景很常见，小区里也有，理论上也有更多的形态和消费场景出现。比如现在我们上线了“多多果园”这种东西，也是很有意思的。把游戏、娱乐和购物有点融合在一起。你可以浇树、还可以偷朋友的水。问：拼多多发展过程中，腾讯扮演什么样的角色，怎么形容腾讯和拼多多的关系？黄峥：在前面一年半腾讯是没有投资的，所以在那个时候我们的发展对微信的依赖更高。这说明腾讯品牌比较有影响力，那时候腾讯已投资了很多电商，不光是拼多多。那时候我们没有受到不公平的待遇，腾讯入股之后，我们也不寻求更多对我们有利的东西，这对整个生态未必是好的。但是当然了，拼多多现在的体量很大，对微信支付和整个商业化，相对来说，扮演了越来越重要的作用。商业合作的领域会越来越多，相互依赖性也会提升。不去美国敲钟不会遗憾问：为什么设在两地敲钟？黄峥：以前也没做过。另外一方面，毕竟很多人去美国不方便，对于我来讲，如果有机会和消费者、员工，包括媒体，以前帮助过我们的人能够在一起的话，感觉更好一点，比自己一个人跑到那个地方、好像这个东西都是我的感觉要好。问：你会觉得遗憾吗？黄峥：一样的，为什么遗憾？问：因为对很多企业家来说觉得是一个很神圣，重要的深刻。黄峥：我还真没有。问：敲钟对你来说没有什么特殊的意义？黄峥：这个东西就是一个过程，它是一个形式，不影响实质，我敲一下又不会怎么样。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1374,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":144499232,"gmtCreate":1626308906026,"gmtModify":1626314443786,"author":{"id":"3491278351539918","authorId":"3491278351539918","name":"高价收鸭毛鳖壳","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/47e911c3cd70e589c85cdef8d1d5cc15","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3491278351539918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