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大力士
2020-05-20
越是普遍的认识 越是错误的认识 股市不就是违背大部分的意愿 小部分人才能赚钱么
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小部分人才能赚钱么","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/959568170","repostId":"1117176892","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1117176892","pubTimestamp":1589938548,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117176892?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-05-20 09:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117176892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是","content":"<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。</p>\n<p>在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型反弹。</p>\n<p>从好的方面来看，5月份基金经理对全球增长的预期大幅上升。根据美国银行的调查，38%的基金经理预测未来12个月世界经济将走强。与此同时，投资者认为全球制造业PMI在11月之前不会升破50这一预示扩张的水平。</p>\n<p>过去两个月里，全球风险资产飙升，得益于强有力的货币和财政支持措施，以及随着主要经济体放松封锁措施，投资者也乐观预计经济可能反弹。然而，资金持续流入货币市场和债券基金表明，由于担心公共卫生事件再度爆发以及企业盈利受到持续损害，许多投资者都远离股市。</p>\n<p>最新的美国银行调查显示，现金水平小幅下降至5.7%，但仍远高于4.7%的10年平均水平，而债券配置比例跃升至2009年金融危机以来的最高水平。调查显示，基金经理持有美国股票多头仓位，对欧元区股票是空头仓位。</p>\n<p>由于公共卫生事件继续在全球新闻中占据主导地位，调查显示，投资者认为第二波公共卫生事件是市场的最大尾部风险。疫苗研发的突破被认为是最有可能推动V型复苏的催化剂。</p>\n<p>鉴于如此多的传统基金经理远离风险资产，美国银行的调查可以让人一窥哪些市场参与者一直在推动股市上涨。调查结果显示，对冲基金本月增持股票，达到34%的净多头仓位，使股票配置接近2月市场崩盘前的水平。</p>\n<p>除了美银的调查，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>调查也显示，超半数的机构投资者认为美股在未来3个月里将进一步走低。</p>\n<p>德银向全球450名专业投资者发布问卷，搜集他们对于公共卫生事件及市场走势看法。数据显示，57%的机构投资者认为，后公共卫生事件时代在家办公将变得更加常规，每周可能要有1-3天的时间在家办公。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e07bedfaaa8a79154768b548805dc969\" tg-width=\"585\" tg-height=\"394\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"></p>\n<p>专业投资者在经历长时间在家办公后，工作效率也在提高，与上次调查相比(42%)，仅有31%的受调查者表示其在家办公效率会下降。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1799e3fc4fec032115b9327f28e33fc8\" tg-width=\"575\" tg-height=\"361\"></p>\n<p>机构投资者对于公共卫生事件的二次爆发保持警惕状态，只有15%的被调查者认为今年秋冬季节公共卫生事件不会二次爆发。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ad3eae026ffb74a4b93e830b234859\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"466\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/77cd86ae8a94b8c0148bedf73241fee0\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c5ad3eae026ffb74a4b93e830b234859\" tg-width=\"1088\" tg-height=\"466\"></p>\n<p>受调查者对于疫苗开发也呈乐观态度：74%的被调查者认为其在未来18个月里能买到疫苗，只有4%的人认为疫苗永远都不会开发出来。</p>\n<p>但专业投资者普遍认为，疫苗在短期无法上市，仅有6%的受访者认为可以在6个月内获得疫苗。</p>\n<p>机构投资者同时认为，因公共卫生事件导致的社交隔离大概率还会继续：48%的受调查者认为社交隔离将在未来6个月里延续，另有30%的被调查者认为社交隔离会再延续6个月。</p>\n<p>在市场走势方面，机构投资者对于股市未来走势感到悲观。42%的受调查者认为标普500指数会在未来的3个月里略微下跌，另有17%的被调查者认为未来3个月股市将大幅下跌。</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n假牛市？近七成基金经理认为美股只不过是“熊市反弹”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-05-20 09:35 北京时间 <a href=https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/318dced6c8505427ba4c5a73eb4a7981","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/303014.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1117176892","content_text":"全球股市从3月低点上涨了近30%，但美国银行调查的大多数基金经理仍然对上涨能否持续持怀疑态度，并且认为经济不会从公共卫生事件危机中快速复苏。\n在5月7日-14日的调查中，68%的投资者称股市的上涨只是熊市反弹，也就是股市在跌至新低之前的短期快速反弹。只有四分之一的人认为股市已经进入了新的牛市。仅有10%的受访基金经理预计经济将以V型快速而剧烈复苏，而75%的受访者预计将是需要更长时间的U型或W型反弹。\n从好的方面来看，5月份基金经理对全球增长的预期大幅上升。根据美国银行的调查，38%的基金经理预测未来12个月世界经济将走强。与此同时，投资者认为全球制造业PMI在11月之前不会升破50这一预示扩张的水平。\n过去两个月里，全球风险资产飙升，得益于强有力的货币和财政支持措施，以及随着主要经济体放松封锁措施，投资者也乐观预计经济可能反弹。然而，资金持续流入货币市场和债券基金表明，由于担心公共卫生事件再度爆发以及企业盈利受到持续损害，许多投资者都远离股市。\n最新的美国银行调查显示，现金水平小幅下降至5.7%，但仍远高于4.7%的10年平均水平，而债券配置比例跃升至2009年金融危机以来的最高水平。调查显示，基金经理持有美国股票多头仓位，对欧元区股票是空头仓位。\n由于公共卫生事件继续在全球新闻中占据主导地位，调查显示，投资者认为第二波公共卫生事件是市场的最大尾部风险。疫苗研发的突破被认为是最有可能推动V型复苏的催化剂。\n鉴于如此多的传统基金经理远离风险资产，美国银行的调查可以让人一窥哪些市场参与者一直在推动股市上涨。调查结果显示，对冲基金本月增持股票，达到34%的净多头仓位，使股票配置接近2月市场崩盘前的水平。\n除了美银的调查，德意志银行调查也显示，超半数的机构投资者认为美股在未来3个月里将进一步走低。\n德银向全球450名专业投资者发布问卷，搜集他们对于公共卫生事件及市场走势看法。数据显示，57%的机构投资者认为，后公共卫生事件时代在家办公将变得更加常规，每周可能要有1-3天的时间在家办公。\n\n专业投资者在经历长时间在家办公后，工作效率也在提高，与上次调查相比(42%)，仅有31%的受调查者表示其在家办公效率会下降。\n\n机构投资者对于公共卫生事件的二次爆发保持警惕状态，只有15%的被调查者认为今年秋冬季节公共卫生事件不会二次爆发。\n\n受调查者对于疫苗开发也呈乐观态度：74%的被调查者认为其在未来18个月里能买到疫苗，只有4%的人认为疫苗永远都不会开发出来。\n但专业投资者普遍认为，疫苗在短期无法上市，仅有6%的受访者认为可以在6个月内获得疫苗。\n机构投资者同时认为，因公共卫生事件导致的社交隔离大概率还会继续：48%的受调查者认为社交隔离将在未来6个月里延续，另有30%的被调查者认为社交隔离会再延续6个月。\n在市场走势方面，机构投资者对于股市未来走势感到悲观。42%的受调查者认为标普500指数会在未来的3个月里略微下跌，另有17%的被调查者认为未来3个月股市将大幅下跌。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1226,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
