YYIFAN的个人主页 - 老虎社区

YYIFAN

YYIFAN

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IP属地：北京

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07:37

$VIX 20250122 14.0 CALL$

11-08

$TSLA 20260116 175.0 CALL$

10-02

$YANG 20241018 5.0 PUT$

09-26

$YANG 20241018 5.0 PUT$

02-09

在中国当下的环境里，要用清算价值评估阿里

2021-12-19

没交保护费

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-10

$迅雷(XNET)$玩客云是划时代的产品，完全有机会做出下一代数字货币，团队缺乏远见可惜了

2021-02-09

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$风物长宜放眼量，阿里是电商公司吗？阿里的未来是云计算，这是它跟京东、拼多多的本质区别。投资科技股，以菲利普迪克为导师，芯片、摄像头、仿生装备、数码空间、人造肉、电子烟，社会赛博朋克化是人类的宿命

2020-10-22

已按22年崩盘做空，小赌怡情

2020-06-10

今晚又有两支金融股表演，真不把美国监管放在眼里呀

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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08:05","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"电子烟合法化后，未来怎么走？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2190758366","media":"智通财经网","summary":"从11月中旬开始，国内关于电子烟的一系列政策开始逐渐清晰。\n先是烟草专卖条例中将电子烟纳入监管范围，相当于确立电子烟的合法地位。\n随后国标、管理办法的意见稿也相继公布，分别对产品标准和监管细节做了规定","content":"<p>从11月中旬开始，国内关于电子烟的一系列政策开始逐渐清晰。</p>\n<p>先是烟草专卖条例中将电子烟纳入监管范围，相当于确立电子烟的合法地位。</p>\n<p>随后国标、管理办法的意见稿也相继公布，分别对产品标准和监管细节做了规定。</p>\n<p>这套三板斧下来，进度有点超过预期。</p>\n<p>一直以来，社会上关于电子烟到底是减害还是更有害的争论从来没有停止，电子烟也因为缺乏相应的标准和监管依据而乱象频出。</p>\n<p>而今后，强监管背景下，国内的吸烟群体、电子烟从业者、公共健康情况都会面临些许改变。</p>\n<p>HNB和雾化</p>\n<p>电子烟说白了，本质是个电子的尼古丁传输装置。</p>\n<p>传统卷烟为什么会严重影响健康？</p>\n<p>因为烟草直接燃烧时会有超过600℃以上的高温，过程中除了释放尼古丁之外，还会产生焦油、一氧化碳等几千种有害化学物质。</p>\n<p>普通人吸烟的目的，就是为了摄入尼古丁，没人会是为了去吸里面的焦油、一氧化碳、重金属。</p>\n<p>所以，电子烟的出现，主要是对原有的尼古丁传输方式进行改进，给人们提供吸入尼古丁的新方法。</p>\n<p>在这个基础上，主流的电子烟就分成了两个大类，HNB（加热不燃烧）和电子雾化烟。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b60627d1ce6d2aafb5330091026bf784\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"244\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">传统烟草和电子烟区分</p>\n<p>HNB本质上仍属于烟草制品，与传统卷烟一样都是以天然烟草为基础原料。</p>\n<p>通过低温烘烤烟草替代传统燃烧，来降低温度去控制烟草里有害成分的释出，所以叫“加热不燃烧”。</p>\n<p>整个过程中，对HNB烟支的处理温度在300℃左右的，略高于家里烤箱的温度。</p>\n<p>没有了燃烧过程，有害物质的释放量也就会大大减少。</p>\n<p>另一边雾化烟则是通过加热液态的烟油，产生出含有尼古丁的蒸气，向人体提供尼古丁。</p>\n<p>但严格讲，雾化并不属于烟草制品，因为不含烟草。</p>\n<p>烟油的成分以丙二醇、丙三醇（甘油）为基液，添加烟碱、尼古丁盐、香精等来模仿传统卷烟的口感，再通过加热的方式雾化。</p>\n<p>简单来说，HNB跟传统卷烟一样吸的还是烟，雾化电子烟吸的是含尼古丁的蒸汽。</p>\n<p>这也从本质上导致两种完全不同的吸食体验。</p>\n<p>雾化烟中带有甜味甘油的比重非常高，导致口感普遍偏甜，老烟民都不会太喜欢。</p>\n<p>此外，雾化还有个问题，就是蒸气由于冷热接触的关系，在嗓子的深处发生冷凝，会引发强烈的咳意，导致有人一抽雾化烟就咳嗽。</p>\n<p>HNB加热烟草薄片更类似于传统卷烟，转换老烟民的效果会比雾化烟强不少，菲莫国际IQOS的转换率就在70%以上。</p>\n<p>而雾化烟好在口感容易接受，还很潮，容易吸引年轻新烟民。</p>\n<p>因为受众不完全相同，国际巨头在布局上也都是HNB、雾化两条腿一起走。</p>\n<p>包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PM\">菲利普莫里斯</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BTI\">英美烟草</a>、帝国烟草、日本烟草，这四巨头在两边都有产品。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fcbbd5894abb16ac4bbaa7b5d5fed233\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"598\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">国际烟草巨头电子烟布局</p>\n<p>17年的时候，IQOS在国内火过一阵子，转换过不少老烟民，但因为HNB烟弹中含有烟草，随后被国家烟草专卖局纳入管制，开始全国禁售。</p>\n<p>市面上咱们能普遍接触到的电子烟都是雾化，包括悦客、YOOZ、魔笛这些都属于雾化烟品牌。</p>\n<p>在具体法规和国标出现前，国内对于雾化烟的监管还没有明确依据，从12月2日烟草局的管理办法看，未来会是以行政许可的形式进行规范。</p>\n<p>真能减害？</p>\n<p>“烟民为尼古丁而吸烟，却死于焦油”。</p>\n<p>电子烟最初诞生的目的就是减害，无论是加热不燃烧还是雾化技术，都是为了减少对人体危害最大的焦油、一氧化碳等物质。</p>\n<p>如果按这个剧情，那公共健康部门和民众应该都会很支持电子烟。</p>\n<p>但现实中，无论是主流媒体还是普通民众，只要不是电子烟从业者，大部分都是反对态度。</p>\n<p>反电子烟在国内成了一种政治正确，为什么？</p>\n<p>一是普通人不清楚电子烟的运作原理，搞不懂电子烟和传统烟的本质差异，更别说能区分HNB和雾化。</p>\n<p>二是由于之前缺乏相应法规和国标，导致电子烟行业野蛮生长，HNB烟弹和雾化烟油生产容易各种乱添加，厂商也经常误导性夸大电子烟的“安全性”、“减害效果”。</p>\n<p>HNB因为禁售，情况会好一点，只有极少数公司通过非烟草植物粉末制作烟弹，来规避监管。</p>\n<p>雾化的部分厂商为了吸引年轻人，有大剂量添加尼古丁、香精，大力推广口味烟的行为，不仅增加了成瘾性和吸入频次，还会吸引更多的新烟民，逐渐脱离了减害的初衷。</p>\n<p>不光咱们国家，面对电子烟这种新型烟草，隔壁英美日韩也存在监管问题，都在不断规范中。</p>\n<p>比如美国之前出现了多起电子烟致病案例，是因为添加了大麻中的成分（四氢大麻酚）。</p>\n<p>为了防止不规范电子烟对青少年带来的健康威胁问题，川普也曾呼吁市场禁售调味电子烟。</p>\n<p>全球的主要市场如果按监管的宽松程度排序，大概是韩国&gt;英国&gt;美国&gt;日本。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5157b24430f1cddca6c708de6d15d48d\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"194\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">各国电子烟监管情况</p>\n<p>韩国管的最松，HNB和雾化都能卖，税率基本持平普通烟草，还附加了每毫升液体征收1050韩元的特别健康税。</p>\n<p>英国将雾化分成药品级和消费品级，对消费品的监管较宽松，也允许HNB销售，手段是加增值税。</p>\n<p>日本监管最严，只允许卖HNB，雾化还没有批准销售，跟国内当前的情况正好相反。</p>\n<p>而各国监管中，最特殊也最值得其他各国借鉴的还是美国。</p>\n<p>作为全球电子烟份额最大的市场，美国监管政策一直在收紧，也在不断提高准入门槛。</p>\n<p>19年底，美国食品药品管理局(FDA)就把烟草制品销售最低年龄从18岁提高到21岁，比我们还高。</p>\n<p>另外，FDA还有个专门用于烟草产品市场准入申请的流程，叫做PMTA（烟草上市前审查）。</p>\n<p>PMTA审批时间很长，流程极其复杂，之前菲莫国际的IQOS通过审批花了两年时间。</p>\n<p>英美烟草的Vuse也是花了两年时间，才在今年10月有三款产品通过审批，这也是全球第一例通过PMTA的雾化电子烟。</p>\n<p>所以在电子烟这块，老美监管的科学性、严格程度都堪称全球标杆，杂牌企业基本没可能通过审批。</p>\n<p>国内制定电子烟的详细政策也会或多或少参考FDA的操作。</p>\n<p>这次从11月中旬到现在，电子烟国标状态从正在起草到征求意见，跟之前美国PMTA通过首款雾化产品这一事件高度相关。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68bfbc88b1b6fb8a787e722ab8f0798f\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"364\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">电子烟国标制定进度</p>\n<p>不光中国，其他国家的烟草监管部门也会以美国的PMTA为参照，埃及、马来西亚、泰国等国家最近都发布了合法化电子烟的计划。</p>\n<p>这回相当于老美已经给雾化烟的安全和减害属性做了背书，国内有了推进相关监管政策的动力。</p>\n<p>所以关于电子烟是否能减害的答案已经很明确了，无论是各国公共卫生部门的态度，世卫组织报告，还是学术期刊，都能坐实电子烟的减害功能。</p>\n<p>排除标准和剂量去谈危害都是在耍流氓，相同剂量和吸入频次下，规范的电子烟产品无论是HNB还是雾化，伤害都会小于传统烟草。</p>\n<p>但减害不是无害，调味雾化烟对年轻人的吸引也确实存在，加强监管才是最好的途径。</p>\n<p>未来怎么走</p>\n<p>国内有3.3亿烟民，传统烟草光利税金额每年都在1.2万亿以上，而电子烟的用户目前300万左右。</p>\n<p>英国、美国2019年渗透率分别为50.4%和32.4%，日本只有HNB，渗透率也达到了30%。</p>\n<p>所以国内电子烟不用考虑空间的问题，就算10%的渗透率，也会有2000亿的市场规模。</p>\n<p>问题是怎么监管，包括：</p>\n<p>国标怎么定？</p>\n<p>HNB、雾化都放开还是只放HNB？</p>\n<p>民营企业能不能生产销售雾化烟？</p>\n<p>征税是分开征还是一起征？多少税率？等等…..</p>\n<p>目前的进度条是，专卖法条例进行了修改，国标公布了意见稿，其中对于产品有了硬性标准。</p>\n<p>首先就是尼古丁，明确要使用从烟草中提取的，不能用合成尼古丁，这也导致做合成尼古丁的上市公司<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300233\">金城医药</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002923\">润都股份</a>股价出现大跌。</p>\n<p>尼古丁含量上，不应高于20mg/g，这个标准低于传统烟草30mg/g标准，也明显低于美国的50mg/g，与欧洲的水平相当。</p>\n<p>较低的尼古丁含量，也就降低了人对电子烟的上瘾性和吸入频率，现有的市场产品很多在30mg/g以上，未来都需要调整。</p>\n<p>另外，国标还将添加剂的临时许可限制为122种，目的是减少调味产品，禁止危害性物质添加。</p>\n<p>国标一出，提高了技术壁垒和门槛，之前那种在烟油中乱添加物质的情况，也会越来越少。</p>\n<p>如果之前大家还弄不清上面对电子烟的态度，那现在已经很明确了，目的是规范而并非打压。</p>\n<p>一般来说先出标准再出法律，最快明年上半年相关法律法规就会出台。</p>\n<p>市场格局上，未来国内预计会是HNB为主，雾化为辅。</p>\n<p>国内烟草属于计划经济，烟草制品的销售都归专卖局管。</p>\n<p>而HNB本质上属于传统烟草的升级版，很多民营企业做不了，所以国内未来电子烟的主战场应该会是HNB。</p>\n<p>虽然暂时还不让卖，但19家中烟工业公司中17家已经有了HNB产品储备。</p>\n<p>四川、云南、广东中烟的产品都已经在海外上市，一旦靴子落地，国内铺货速度会很快。</p>\n<p>如果参考隔壁日本，放开销售的3年内就有30%烟民转化成了HNB用户，到时候国内的渗透速度可能比我们想的更快。</p>\n<p>另外价格上看，HNB烟弹差不多会是在30~40块钱一包的区间，是传统烟草平均零售价的两倍，增加HNB的销售对利税会有明显的正向提升。</p>\n<p>各方面看，HNB在国内的路子都会比雾化更好走一点。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/609e1c60f64481a361bc069e1ce68c37\" tg-width=\"720\" tg-height=\"274\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">国内HNB产业链</p>\n<p>整个产业链上，最受益的还是抱中烟大腿的公司，像<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00336\">华宝国际</a>(00336)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603429\">集友股份</a>(603429.SH)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002191\">劲嘉股份</a>(002191.SZ)这些。</p>\n<p>增量最大的烟草薄片，在制作过程中需要添加香精香料，而HNB需要的香精料是普通香烟的5-8倍，华宝作为中烟的供应商受益明显。</p>\n<p>HNB10%的渗透率对应的薄片市场空间是150~200亿，华宝如果拿到20%的份额，对应的收入增量就是30亿左右。</p>\n<p>渗透率起来后，包括烟具、特种纸等都会有很大的增量空间。</p>\n<p>另外，各地中烟公司独立运营HNB，后面还会有更多的供应商、合作伙伴出现，这一块可以持续关注。</p>\n<p>而雾化这边，虽然未来可能搞不赢HNB，但电子烟合法化之后，处境肯定会比现在更好。</p>\n<p>按照12月2日专卖局的表态，国内将对电子烟产品实行登记制度，电子烟生产、代工、品牌商，都要经过专卖局的批准，取得烟草专卖生产企业许可证后才能合法经营。</p>\n<p>这个思路跟美国FDA类似，雾化可以搞，但只会允许大型公司参与。</p>\n<p>从当天股价反应看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06969\">思摩尔国际</a>(06969)作为全球雾化陶瓷芯龙头，大家是觉得能拿到许可的。</p>\n<p>但对于品牌商悦刻，市场不是那么有信心。</p>\n<p>因为思摩尔是代工厂，除了雾化芯，也做HNB烟具，跟中烟属于上下游关系，未来还可能合作。</p>\n<p>而悦刻做雾化烟终端销售，会分流中烟的HNB市场，所以大家态度上更加谨慎些，电子烟固有属性决定了投资上中游的风险肯定低于下游。</p>\n<p>整体进程上，中国刚开始电子烟合法化的脚步，市场空间巨大，但行业也承载了很大的社会责任，放开后可能会面临更多的监管难题。</p>\n<p>站在投资者的角度，对于别的行业，我们会希望成长属性更强，增速越快越好。</p>\n<p>但对电子烟，大家更乐于见到其在严格监管下有序发展，而非快速生长。</p>\n<p>比起短期题材炒作，长远的眼光和耐心才更加贴合这个新兴行业的脉络。</p>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>电子烟合法化后，未来怎么走？</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n电子烟合法化后，未来怎么走？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-11 08:05 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-12-11/doc-ikyamrmy8235732.shtml><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>从11月中旬开始，国内关于电子烟的一系列政策开始逐渐清晰。\n先是烟草专卖条例中将电子烟纳入监管范围，相当于确立电子烟的合法地位。\n随后国标、管理办法的意见稿也相继公布，分别对产品标准和监管细节做了规定。\n这套三板斧下来，进度有点超过预期。\n一直以来，社会上关于电子烟到底是减害还是更有害的争论从来没有停止，电子烟也因为缺乏相应的标准和监管依据而乱象频出。\n而今后，强监管背景下，国内的吸烟群体、电子烟...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-12-11/doc-ikyamrmy8235732.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bc4ee269ad9cff7441dc3605e3bc69a","relate_stocks":{"06969":"思摩尔国际","BK1580":"烟草概念","BK1589":"北水核心资产","RLX":"雾芯科技"},"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/hkstocknews/2021-12-11/doc-ikyamrmy8235732.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2190758366","content_text":"从11月中旬开始，国内关于电子烟的一系列政策开始逐渐清晰。\n先是烟草专卖条例中将电子烟纳入监管范围，相当于确立电子烟的合法地位。\n随后国标、管理办法的意见稿也相继公布，分别对产品标准和监管细节做了规定。\n这套三板斧下来，进度有点超过预期。\n一直以来，社会上关于电子烟到底是减害还是更有害的争论从来没有停止，电子烟也因为缺乏相应的标准和监管依据而乱象频出。\n而今后，强监管背景下，国内的吸烟群体、电子烟从业者、公共健康情况都会面临些许改变。\nHNB和雾化\n电子烟说白了，本质是个电子的尼古丁传输装置。\n传统卷烟为什么会严重影响健康？\n因为烟草直接燃烧时会有超过600℃以上的高温，过程中除了释放尼古丁之外，还会产生焦油、一氧化碳等几千种有害化学物质。\n普通人吸烟的目的，就是为了摄入尼古丁，没人会是为了去吸里面的焦油、一氧化碳、重金属。\n所以，电子烟的出现，主要是对原有的尼古丁传输方式进行改进，给人们提供吸入尼古丁的新方法。\n在这个基础上，主流的电子烟就分成了两个大类，HNB（加热不燃烧）和电子雾化烟。\n传统烟草和电子烟区分\nHNB本质上仍属于烟草制品，与传统卷烟一样都是以天然烟草为基础原料。\n通过低温烘烤烟草替代传统燃烧，来降低温度去控制烟草里有害成分的释出，所以叫“加热不燃烧”。\n整个过程中，对HNB烟支的处理温度在300℃左右的，略高于家里烤箱的温度。\n没有了燃烧过程，有害物质的释放量也就会大大减少。\n另一边雾化烟则是通过加热液态的烟油，产生出含有尼古丁的蒸气，向人体提供尼古丁。\n但严格讲，雾化并不属于烟草制品，因为不含烟草。\n烟油的成分以丙二醇、丙三醇（甘油）为基液，添加烟碱、尼古丁盐、香精等来模仿传统卷烟的口感，再通过加热的方式雾化。\n简单来说，HNB跟传统卷烟一样吸的还是烟，雾化电子烟吸的是含尼古丁的蒸汽。\n这也从本质上导致两种完全不同的吸食体验。\n雾化烟中带有甜味甘油的比重非常高，导致口感普遍偏甜，老烟民都不会太喜欢。\n此外，雾化还有个问题，就是蒸气由于冷热接触的关系，在嗓子的深处发生冷凝，会引发强烈的咳意，导致有人一抽雾化烟就咳嗽。\nHNB加热烟草薄片更类似于传统卷烟，转换老烟民的效果会比雾化烟强不少，菲莫国际IQOS的转换率就在70%以上。\n而雾化烟好在口感容易接受，还很潮，容易吸引年轻新烟民。\n因为受众不完全相同，国际巨头在布局上也都是HNB、雾化两条腿一起走。\n包括菲利普莫里斯、英美烟草、帝国烟草、日本烟草，这四巨头在两边都有产品。\n国际烟草巨头电子烟布局\n17年的时候，IQOS在国内火过一阵子，转换过不少老烟民，但因为HNB烟弹中含有烟草，随后被国家烟草专卖局纳入管制，开始全国禁售。\n市面上咱们能普遍接触到的电子烟都是雾化，包括悦客、YOOZ、魔笛这些都属于雾化烟品牌。\n在具体法规和国标出现前，国内对于雾化烟的监管还没有明确依据，从12月2日烟草局的管理办法看，未来会是以行政许可的形式进行规范。\n真能减害？\n“烟民为尼古丁而吸烟，却死于焦油”。\n电子烟最初诞生的目的就是减害，无论是加热不燃烧还是雾化技术，都是为了减少对人体危害最大的焦油、一氧化碳等物质。\n如果按这个剧情，那公共健康部门和民众应该都会很支持电子烟。\n但现实中，无论是主流媒体还是普通民众，只要不是电子烟从业者，大部分都是反对态度。\n反电子烟在国内成了一种政治正确，为什么？\n一是普通人不清楚电子烟的运作原理，搞不懂电子烟和传统烟的本质差异，更别说能区分HNB和雾化。\n二是由于之前缺乏相应法规和国标，导致电子烟行业野蛮生长，HNB烟弹和雾化烟油生产容易各种乱添加，厂商也经常误导性夸大电子烟的“安全性”、“减害效果”。\nHNB因为禁售，情况会好一点，只有极少数公司通过非烟草植物粉末制作烟弹，来规避监管。\n雾化的部分厂商为了吸引年轻人，有大剂量添加尼古丁、香精，大力推广口味烟的行为，不仅增加了成瘾性和吸入频次，还会吸引更多的新烟民，逐渐脱离了减害的初衷。\n不光咱们国家，面对电子烟这种新型烟草，隔壁英美日韩也存在监管问题，都在不断规范中。\n比如美国之前出现了多起电子烟致病案例，是因为添加了大麻中的成分（四氢大麻酚）。\n为了防止不规范电子烟对青少年带来的健康威胁问题，川普也曾呼吁市场禁售调味电子烟。\n全球的主要市场如果按监管的宽松程度排序，大概是韩国>英国>美国>日本。\n各国电子烟监管情况\n韩国管的最松，HNB和雾化都能卖，税率基本持平普通烟草，还附加了每毫升液体征收1050韩元的特别健康税。\n英国将雾化分成药品级和消费品级，对消费品的监管较宽松，也允许HNB销售，手段是加增值税。\n日本监管最严，只允许卖HNB，雾化还没有批准销售，跟国内当前的情况正好相反。\n而各国监管中，最特殊也最值得其他各国借鉴的还是美国。\n作为全球电子烟份额最大的市场，美国监管政策一直在收紧，也在不断提高准入门槛。\n19年底，美国食品药品管理局(FDA)就把烟草制品销售最低年龄从18岁提高到21岁，比我们还高。\n另外，FDA还有个专门用于烟草产品市场准入申请的流程，叫做PMTA（烟草上市前审查）。\nPMTA审批时间很长，流程极其复杂，之前菲莫国际的IQOS通过审批花了两年时间。\n英美烟草的Vuse也是花了两年时间，才在今年10月有三款产品通过审批，这也是全球第一例通过PMTA的雾化电子烟。\n所以在电子烟这块，老美监管的科学性、严格程度都堪称全球标杆，杂牌企业基本没可能通过审批。\n国内制定电子烟的详细政策也会或多或少参考FDA的操作。\n这次从11月中旬到现在，电子烟国标状态从正在起草到征求意见，跟之前美国PMTA通过首款雾化产品这一事件高度相关。\n电子烟国标制定进度\n不光中国，其他国家的烟草监管部门也会以美国的PMTA为参照，埃及、马来西亚、泰国等国家最近都发布了合法化电子烟的计划。\n这回相当于老美已经给雾化烟的安全和减害属性做了背书，国内有了推进相关监管政策的动力。\n所以关于电子烟是否能减害的答案已经很明确了，无论是各国公共卫生部门的态度，世卫组织报告，还是学术期刊，都能坐实电子烟的减害功能。\n排除标准和剂量去谈危害都是在耍流氓，相同剂量和吸入频次下，规范的电子烟产品无论是HNB还是雾化，伤害都会小于传统烟草。\n但减害不是无害，调味雾化烟对年轻人的吸引也确实存在，加强监管才是最好的途径。\n未来怎么走\n国内有3.3亿烟民，传统烟草光利税金额每年都在1.2万亿以上，而电子烟的用户目前300万左右。\n英国、美国2019年渗透率分别为50.4%和32.4%，日本只有HNB，渗透率也达到了30%。\n所以国内电子烟不用考虑空间的问题，就算10%的渗透率，也会有2000亿的市场规模。\n问题是怎么监管，包括：\n国标怎么定？\nHNB、雾化都放开还是只放HNB？\n民营企业能不能生产销售雾化烟？\n征税是分开征还是一起征？多少税率？等等…..\n目前的进度条是，专卖法条例进行了修改，国标公布了意见稿，其中对于产品有了硬性标准。\n首先就是尼古丁，明确要使用从烟草中提取的，不能用合成尼古丁，这也导致做合成尼古丁的上市公司金城医药、润都股份股价出现大跌。\n尼古丁含量上，不应高于20mg/g，这个标准低于传统烟草30mg/g标准，也明显低于美国的50mg/g，与欧洲的水平相当。\n较低的尼古丁含量，也就降低了人对电子烟的上瘾性和吸入频率，现有的市场产品很多在30mg/g以上，未来都需要调整。\n另外，国标还将添加剂的临时许可限制为122种，目的是减少调味产品，禁止危害性物质添加。\n国标一出，提高了技术壁垒和门槛，之前那种在烟油中乱添加物质的情况，也会越来越少。\n如果之前大家还弄不清上面对电子烟的态度，那现在已经很明确了，目的是规范而并非打压。\n一般来说先出标准再出法律，最快明年上半年相关法律法规就会出台。\n市场格局上，未来国内预计会是HNB为主，雾化为辅。\n国内烟草属于计划经济，烟草制品的销售都归专卖局管。\n而HNB本质上属于传统烟草的升级版，很多民营企业做不了，所以国内未来电子烟的主战场应该会是HNB。\n虽然暂时还不让卖，但19家中烟工业公司中17家已经有了HNB产品储备。\n四川、云南、广东中烟的产品都已经在海外上市，一旦靴子落地，国内铺货速度会很快。\n如果参考隔壁日本，放开销售的3年内就有30%烟民转化成了HNB用户，到时候国内的渗透速度可能比我们想的更快。\n另外价格上看，HNB烟弹差不多会是在30~40块钱一包的区间，是传统烟草平均零售价的两倍，增加HNB的销售对利税会有明显的正向提升。\n各方面看，HNB在国内的路子都会比雾化更好走一点。\n国内HNB产业链\n整个产业链上，最受益的还是抱中烟大腿的公司，像华宝国际(00336)、集友股份(603429.SH)、劲嘉股份(002191.SZ)这些。\n增量最大的烟草薄片，在制作过程中需要添加香精香料，而HNB需要的香精料是普通香烟的5-8倍，华宝作为中烟的供应商受益明显。\nHNB10%的渗透率对应的薄片市场空间是150~200亿，华宝如果拿到20%的份额，对应的收入增量就是30亿左右。\n渗透率起来后，包括烟具、特种纸等都会有很大的增量空间。\n另外，各地中烟公司独立运营HNB，后面还会有更多的供应商、合作伙伴出现，这一块可以持续关注。\n而雾化这边，虽然未来可能搞不赢HNB，但电子烟合法化之后，处境肯定会比现在更好。\n按照12月2日专卖局的表态，国内将对电子烟产品实行登记制度，电子烟生产、代工、品牌商，都要经过专卖局的批准，取得烟草专卖生产企业许可证后才能合法经营。\n这个思路跟美国FDA类似，雾化可以搞，但只会允许大型公司参与。\n从当天股价反应看，思摩尔国际(06969)作为全球雾化陶瓷芯龙头，大家是觉得能拿到许可的。\n但对于品牌商悦刻，市场不是那么有信心。\n因为思摩尔是代工厂，除了雾化芯，也做HNB烟具，跟中烟属于上下游关系，未来还可能合作。\n而悦刻做雾化烟终端销售，会分流中烟的HNB市场，所以大家态度上更加谨慎些，电子烟固有属性决定了投资上中游的风险肯定低于下游。\n整体进程上，中国刚开始电子烟合法化的脚步，市场空间巨大，但行业也承载了很大的社会责任，放开后可能会面临更多的监管难题。\n站在投资者的角度，对于别的行业，我们会希望成长属性更强，增速越快越好。\n但对电子烟，大家更乐于见到其在严格监管下有序发展，而非快速生长。\n比起短期题材炒作，长远的眼光和耐心才更加贴合这个新兴行业的脉络。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1287,"authorTweetTopSta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