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AXe
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IP属地:广东
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AXe
10-31
$微软(MSFT)$
短期看空,如果跌到380-390可以接回来。
AXe
10-09
后续港股应该还是会上涨的,首先还是看好券商,这轮用户佣金收入应该会上涨不少。
AXe
10-03
robotaxi预期透支过高了,当前政策面不太可能大规模运营。
AXe
10-03
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$
不希望打赢,竞争越激烈越好,这样对消费者才有利。[开心] [开心]
AXe
10-03
其实都后悔,所以如利弗摩尔所说,市场永远是对的。
AXe
10-03
等回调先吧,政策肯定是希望慢牛的,快牛急牛和坐跳楼机一样,赚的多死的也快。
AXe
10-02
目前看来美国经济软着陆的预期还是比较大,当前主要集中在降息预期,AI的资本收益,英伟达的财报,长期还是看好的,5800-5900左右吧,当然阴性黑天鹅是战争冲突,还需要谨慎乐观。
AXe
09-26
$英伟达(NVDA)$
看好,甲骨文的财报开始验证了AI行业的说法,至少在云服务业。
AXe
09-26
长期更看好港股市场,估值低+分红高,同时标的比A股更优质。
AXe
09-26
暂时走了,观望为主。
AXe
09-26
看好新东方,死磕新东方。
AXe
09-26
短期看来120是个阻力位,不过拼多多长期还是看好的。
AXe
09-25
长期关注谋定后动了,其实这套策略是单位时间内,风险可控,无需付出过多精力的资本价值效率最大化的操作策略了。
@谋定后动:通过期权策略持有ETF
AXe
09-25
$英伟达(NVDA)$
感觉有点难,还得看十月四日的失业率指数才知道大势的方向,要是失业率往下走,降息预期会下调,这轮上涨完全是基于超预期的上涨幅度造成的,而且华尔街还在等待英伟达Q4指引,看b100的销量预期才确定是否上攻。
AXe
09-25
看涨新东方,这轮反弹就新东方涨的最少,新东方基本面是没问题的,主要是东方甄选相关的舆论压力,这轮超跌反弹新东方应该还有动能向上走,短期看到68-72左右。
AXe
09-25
这周任务完成。
AXe
09-24
应该是到10月份初要调整,虽然中概估值低,但大多数企业依然还是偏向低迷期,可以关注一下成长股。
AXe
09-24
有机会的话肯定抄底,超跌了。
AXe
09-24
没有持有,但是近期特斯拉涨的有点高,robotaxi预期有些被拉高了,等待机会put一下。
AXe
09-24
2900点是个坎,现在还只是降息初期,还有很多有待观察。
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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[开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356093591716056","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356032146809256,"gmtCreate":1727925275203,"gmtModify":1727925277275,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"其实都后悔,所以如利弗摩尔所说,市场永远是对的。","listText":"其实都后悔,所以如利弗摩尔所说,市场永远是对的。","text":"其实都后悔,所以如利弗摩尔所说,市场永远是对的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356032146809256","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355886898917392,"gmtCreate":1727888423217,"gmtModify":1727888425819,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"等回调先吧,政策肯定是希望慢牛的,快牛急牛和坐跳楼机一样,赚的多死的也快。","listText":"等回调先吧,政策肯定是希望慢牛的,快牛急牛和坐跳楼机一样,赚的多死的也快。","text":"等回调先吧,政策肯定是希望慢牛的,快牛急牛和坐跳楼机一样,赚的多死的也快。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355886898917392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355657444598184,"gmtCreate":1727833795171,"gmtModify":1727836504651,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"目前看来美国经济软着陆的预期还是比较大,当前主要集中在降息预期,AI的资本收益,英伟达的财报,长期还是看好的,5800-5900左右吧,当然阴性黑天鹅是战争冲突,还需要谨慎乐观。","listText":"目前看来美国经济软着陆的预期还是比较大,当前主要集中在降息预期,AI的资本收益,英伟达的财报,长期还是看好的,5800-5900左右吧,当然阴性黑天鹅是战争冲突,还需要谨慎乐观。","text":"目前看来美国经济软着陆的预期还是比较大,当前主要集中在降息预期,AI的资本收益,英伟达的财报,长期还是看好的,5800-5900左右吧,当然阴性黑天鹅是战争冲突,还需要谨慎乐观。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355657444598184","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":365,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353553421840488,"gmtCreate":1727354813970,"gmtModify":1727354815781,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 看好,甲骨文的财报开始验证了AI行业的说法,至少在云服务业。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 看好,甲骨文的财报开始验证了AI行业的说法,至少在云服务业。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 看好,甲骨文的财报开始验证了AI行业的说法,至少在云服务业。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353553421840488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353552550150392,"gmtCreate":1727354731076,"gmtModify":1727354733811,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"长期更看好港股市场,估值低+分红高,同时标的比A股更优质。","listText":"长期更看好港股市场,估值低+分红高,同时标的比A股更优质。","text":"长期更看好港股市场,估值低+分红高,同时标的比A股更优质。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353552550150392","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353552314888376,"gmtCreate":1727354643086,"gmtModify":1727354644989,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"暂时走了,观望为主。","listText":"暂时走了,观望为主。","text":"暂时走了,观望为主。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353552314888376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353407140315320,"gmtCreate":1727317816112,"gmtModify":1727317818052,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看好新东方,死磕新东方。","listText":"看好新东方,死磕新东方。","text":"看好新东方,死磕新东方。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353407140315320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353259914469712,"gmtCreate":1727282001479,"gmtModify":1727282003802,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"短期看来120是个阻力位,不过拼多多长期还是看好的。","listText":"短期看来120是个阻力位,不过拼多多长期还是看好的。","text":"短期看来120是个阻力位,不过拼多多长期还是看好的。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353259914469712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353243396182336,"gmtCreate":1727248132172,"gmtModify":1727248134902,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"长期关注谋定后动了,其实这套策略是单位时间内,风险可控,无需付出过多精力的资本价值效率最大化的操作策略了。","listText":"长期关注谋定后动了,其实这套策略是单位时间内,风险可控,无需付出过多精力的资本价值效率最大化的操作策略了。","text":"长期关注谋定后动了,其实这套策略是单位时间内,风险可控,无需付出过多精力的资本价值效率最大化的操作策略了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353243396182336","repostId":"353178191831336","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":353178191831336,"gmtCreate":1727246493581,"gmtModify":1727278203833,"author":{"id":"3556673506813374","authorId":"3556673506813374","name":"谋定后动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/865a6ec8ea0c03d186fb7dab736911ae","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3556673506813374","authorIdStr":"3556673506813374"},"themes":[],"title":"通过期权策略持有ETF","htmlText":"欢迎大家来到我的专栏,感谢 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667699676929\">@小虎交易笔记</a> 的邀请。因为指数ETF消除了个股风险,因此成为看涨期权策略的首选标的。(注:这一节的内容需要读者有一定期权知识,期权是高风险投资品类)对于普通散户而言,期权最重要的作用之一是让你能拿得住你所认定的好股票,下面的这个策略能帮助你综合Sell Put和Covered Call的期权策略的优点,降低风险和操作难度,让你可以持续平稳地拿住你认定的好股票。在这个策略中,因为你始终都是期权卖家,时间是你的朋友,除了股价上涨之外,还能赚取额外的时间价值。这就是滚轮策略。滚轮策略的核心思想:赚取时间价值滚轮策略是有别于股价思维的期权策略,并不是盯着股价来操作的,而是着眼于拉长时间线,通过不断卖出SP或者CC的滚动操作,套利期权中的时间价值来实现盈利的。和前面CC和SP策略一样,这是一个看涨的策略,你必须选择一个你有坚定信念的标的,比如微软、亚马逊,又比如SPY、QQQ这样的。滚轮策略的操作步骤如下图,可分为4步:第一步:卖出看跌期权 ,收获权利金。到了行权日以后,如果股价超过行权价,那么继续重复第一步,取Delta值在0.4-0.6之间调整行权价,卖出下一个循环的看跌;如果股价低于行权价,那么进入第二步。第二步:被行权买入正股,这时需要付出现金。第三步:卖出看涨期权,收获权利金。到了行权日以后,如果股价低于行权价,那么继续重复第三步,取Delta值在0.4-0.6之间调整行权价,卖出下一个循环的看涨期权;如果股价高于行权价,那么进入第四步。第四步:被行权卖出正股,这时回笼现金。现金回笼后可重复第一步的操作。对于初学者,非常需要注意的是第一步你必须要有足够买入正股的现金,比如卖出一手行权价为400的微软看跌期权,所需要准备的现金是400x100=","listText":"欢迎大家来到我的专栏,感谢 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/3527667699676929\">@小虎交易笔记</a> 的邀请。因为指数ETF消除了个股风险,因此成为看涨期权策略的首选标的。(注:这一节的内容需要读者有一定期权知识,期权是高风险投资品类)对于普通散户而言,期权最重要的作用之一是让你能拿得住你所认定的好股票,下面的这个策略能帮助你综合Sell Put和Covered Call的期权策略的优点,降低风险和操作难度,让你可以持续平稳地拿住你认定的好股票。在这个策略中,因为你始终都是期权卖家,时间是你的朋友,除了股价上涨之外,还能赚取额外的时间价值。这就是滚轮策略。滚轮策略的核心思想:赚取时间价值滚轮策略是有别于股价思维的期权策略,并不是盯着股价来操作的,而是着眼于拉长时间线,通过不断卖出SP或者CC的滚动操作,套利期权中的时间价值来实现盈利的。和前面CC和SP策略一样,这是一个看涨的策略,你必须选择一个你有坚定信念的标的,比如微软、亚马逊,又比如SPY、QQQ这样的。滚轮策略的操作步骤如下图,可分为4步:第一步:卖出看跌期权 ,收获权利金。到了行权日以后,如果股价超过行权价,那么继续重复第一步,取Delta值在0.4-0.6之间调整行权价,卖出下一个循环的看跌;如果股价低于行权价,那么进入第二步。第二步:被行权买入正股,这时需要付出现金。第三步:卖出看涨期权,收获权利金。到了行权日以后,如果股价低于行权价,那么继续重复第三步,取Delta值在0.4-0.6之间调整行权价,卖出下一个循环的看涨期权;如果股价高于行权价,那么进入第四步。第四步:被行权卖出正股,这时回笼现金。现金回笼后可重复第一步的操作。对于初学者,非常需要注意的是第一步你必须要有足够买入正股的现金,比如卖出一手行权价为400的微软看跌期权,所需要准备的现金是400x100=","text":"欢迎大家来到我的专栏,感谢 @小虎交易笔记 的邀请。因为指数ETF消除了个股风险,因此成为看涨期权策略的首选标的。(注:这一节的内容需要读者有一定期权知识,期权是高风险投资品类)对于普通散户而言,期权最重要的作用之一是让你能拿得住你所认定的好股票,下面的这个策略能帮助你综合Sell Put和Covered Call的期权策略的优点,降低风险和操作难度,让你可以持续平稳地拿住你认定的好股票。在这个策略中,因为你始终都是期权卖家,时间是你的朋友,除了股价上涨之外,还能赚取额外的时间价值。这就是滚轮策略。滚轮策略的核心思想:赚取时间价值滚轮策略是有别于股价思维的期权策略,并不是盯着股价来操作的,而是着眼于拉长时间线,通过不断卖出SP或者CC的滚动操作,套利期权中的时间价值来实现盈利的。和前面CC和SP策略一样,这是一个看涨的策略,你必须选择一个你有坚定信念的标的,比如微软、亚马逊,又比如SPY、QQQ这样的。滚轮策略的操作步骤如下图,可分为4步:第一步:卖出看跌期权 ,收获权利金。到了行权日以后,如果股价超过行权价,那么继续重复第一步,取Delta值在0.4-0.6之间调整行权价,卖出下一个循环的看跌;如果股价低于行权价,那么进入第二步。第二步:被行权买入正股,这时需要付出现金。第三步:卖出看涨期权,收获权利金。到了行权日以后,如果股价低于行权价,那么继续重复第三步,取Delta值在0.4-0.6之间调整行权价,卖出下一个循环的看涨期权;如果股价高于行权价,那么进入第四步。第四步:被行权卖出正股,这时回笼现金。现金回笼后可重复第一步的操作。对于初学者,非常需要注意的是第一步你必须要有足够买入正股的现金,比如卖出一手行权价为400的微软看跌期权,所需要准备的现金是400x100=","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0b2331245699f88b466781988028d8","width":"904","height":"488"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353178191831336","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":3,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":178,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353217285673104,"gmtCreate":1727241823437,"gmtModify":1727241920927,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 感觉有点难,还得看十月四日的失业率指数才知道大势的方向,要是失业率往下走,降息预期会下调,这轮上涨完全是基于超预期的上涨幅度造成的,而且华尔街还在等待英伟达Q4指引,看b100的销量预期才确定是否上攻。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 感觉有点难,还得看十月四日的失业率指数才知道大势的方向,要是失业率往下走,降息预期会下调,这轮上涨完全是基于超预期的上涨幅度造成的,而且华尔街还在等待英伟达Q4指引,看b100的销量预期才确定是否上攻。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 感觉有点难,还得看十月四日的失业率指数才知道大势的方向,要是失业率往下走,降息预期会下调,这轮上涨完全是基于超预期的上涨幅度造成的,而且华尔街还在等待英伟达Q4指引,看b100的销量预期才确定是否上攻。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353217285673104","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7554,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353215941955728,"gmtCreate":1727241495381,"gmtModify":1727241500421,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看涨新东方,这轮反弹就新东方涨的最少,新东方基本面是没问题的,主要是东方甄选相关的舆论压力,这轮超跌反弹新东方应该还有动能向上走,短期看到68-72左右。","listText":"看涨新东方,这轮反弹就新东方涨的最少,新东方基本面是没问题的,主要是东方甄选相关的舆论压力,这轮超跌反弹新东方应该还有动能向上走,短期看到68-72左右。","text":"看涨新东方,这轮反弹就新东方涨的最少,新东方基本面是没问题的,主要是东方甄选相关的舆论压力,这轮超跌反弹新东方应该还有动能向上走,短期看到68-72左右。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c37013337cf269eff3e956ba88dd4be"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353215941955728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1555,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":353066109939800,"gmtCreate":1727206617758,"gmtModify":1727206620920,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这周任务完成。","listText":"这周任务完成。","text":"这周任务完成。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71030a2cbaa35e362e8413e9d8407756","width":"1022","height":"1668"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/353066109939800","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":279,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352971639157008,"gmtCreate":1727183795380,"gmtModify":1727183797687,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"应该是到10月份初要调整,虽然中概估值低,但大多数企业依然还是偏向低迷期,可以关注一下成长股。","listText":"应该是到10月份初要调整,虽然中概估值低,但大多数企业依然还是偏向低迷期,可以关注一下成长股。","text":"应该是到10月份初要调整,虽然中概估值低,但大多数企业依然还是偏向低迷期,可以关注一下成长股。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352971639157008","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352844454064376,"gmtCreate":1727183656078,"gmtModify":1727183658266,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有机会的话肯定抄底,超跌了。","listText":"有机会的话肯定抄底,超跌了。","text":"有机会的话肯定抄底,超跌了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352844454064376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":261,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352961585451152,"gmtCreate":1727181374222,"gmtModify":1727181376635,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没有持有,但是近期特斯拉涨的有点高,robotaxi预期有些被拉高了,等待机会put一下。","listText":"没有持有,但是近期特斯拉涨的有点高,robotaxi预期有些被拉高了,等待机会put一下。","text":"没有持有,但是近期特斯拉涨的有点高,robotaxi预期有些被拉高了,等待机会put一下。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352961585451152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":352834889257248,"gmtCreate":1727181321654,"gmtModify":1727181324586,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3487598394018785","authorIdStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"2900点是个坎,现在还只是降息初期,还有很多有待观察。","listText":"2900点是个坎,现在还只是降息初期,还有很多有待观察。","text":"2900点是个坎,现在还只是降息初期,还有很多有待观察。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/352834889257248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":518,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":669182079,"gmtCreate":1662138551191,"gmtModify":1662138552365,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487598394018785","idStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"看了一下最新的房利美数据,三十年房贷利率已经上升至5.43%,加上能源危机,气候危机,物价上涨,新冠疫情加流感的寒冬,今年的寒冬真是不敢想象。真是庆幸自己生在大中华。纳斯达克估计今年冬天8000点都不是梦了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","listText":"看了一下最新的房利美数据,三十年房贷利率已经上升至5.43%,加上能源危机,气候危机,物价上涨,新冠疫情加流感的寒冬,今年的寒冬真是不敢想象。真是庆幸自己生在大中华。纳斯达克估计今年冬天8000点都不是梦了。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v>","text":"看了一下最新的房利美数据,三十年房贷利率已经上升至5.43%,加上能源危机,气候危机,物价上涨,新冠疫情加流感的寒冬,今年的寒冬真是不敢想象。真是庆幸自己生在大中华。纳斯达克估计今年冬天8000点都不是梦了。$特斯拉(TSLA)$$苹果(AAPL)$$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":129,"commentSize":63,"repostSize":13,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669182079","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3442974577839237","authorId":"3442974577839237","name":"我想我是爱琴海","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6b0659c9c2b0dffdf184edfdfc348277","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3442974577839237","idStr":"3442974577839237"},"content":"这种水平玩你的癌股去吧","text":"这种水平玩你的癌股去吧","html":"这种水平玩你的癌股去吧"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":198621971050528,"gmtCreate":1689514240954,"gmtModify":1689516347909,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487598394018785","idStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"title":"【冲击一万美金】首周实盘回顾,首周盈利80%","htmlText":"好久没发帖了,重新记录一下自己的实盘经历。这次准备试下用1000美金看能否赚到10000美金。 首周运气不错,踩中了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEHR\">$Aehr Test Systems(AEHR)$ </a>,这季财报略微超预期,主要是下个财年的营收增长预期非常高,看样子还能抓一下,准备下周55-60再放出去,希望能到3000美金[财迷] 。 目前大盘看起来短期还是会向上,市场消化加息的预期非常迅速。不过这个月原油又在涨,有点担心下个月发布的7月份cpi和pce指数,下半年还加不加就看8-9月份的了,现在涨的原因主要方面是加息预期降低。 下周重点关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>的财报,超预期基本上十拿九稳的了,下季度指引估计也会很好。但是还是有一些需要关注的,第一是利润率,第二是第三季度能否开始正式交付cybertruck,昨天出的新闻第一辆量产是好消息,但是预期周产量是多少,什么时候可以交付,肯定是重点,个人预计应该是在三季度尾开始交付。第三就是马老板本人了,不要又食言,趁股价上涨又开始抛售了[黑眼圈] ,鉴于之前马老板食言过,我觉得大家要小心这点。加上最近他那么能折腾,推特有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$ </a>这个对手,又想弄AI,感觉马老板又要套现去做事情了,大家真的要小心[捂脸] 。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞 </a>","listText":"好久没发帖了,重新记录一下自己的实盘经历。这次准备试下用1000美金看能否赚到10000美金。 首周运气不错,踩中了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEHR\">$Aehr Test Systems(AEHR)$ </a>,这季财报略微超预期,主要是下个财年的营收增长预期非常高,看样子还能抓一下,准备下周55-60再放出去,希望能到3000美金[财迷] 。 目前大盘看起来短期还是会向上,市场消化加息的预期非常迅速。不过这个月原油又在涨,有点担心下个月发布的7月份cpi和pce指数,下半年还加不加就看8-9月份的了,现在涨的原因主要方面是加息预期降低。 下周重点关注<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>的财报,超预期基本上十拿九稳的了,下季度指引估计也会很好。但是还是有一些需要关注的,第一是利润率,第二是第三季度能否开始正式交付cybertruck,昨天出的新闻第一辆量产是好消息,但是预期周产量是多少,什么时候可以交付,肯定是重点,个人预计应该是在三季度尾开始交付。第三就是马老板本人了,不要又食言,趁股价上涨又开始抛售了[黑眼圈] ,鉴于之前马老板食言过,我觉得大家要小心这点。加上最近他那么能折腾,推特有<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">$Meta Platforms(META)$ </a>这个对手,又想弄AI,感觉马老板又要套现去做事情了,大家真的要小心[捂脸] 。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/U/20722186463466\">@爱发红包的虎妞 </a>","text":"好久没发帖了,重新记录一下自己的实盘经历。这次准备试下用1000美金看能否赚到10000美金。 首周运气不错,踩中了$Aehr Test Systems(AEHR)$ ,这季财报略微超预期,主要是下个财年的营收增长预期非常高,看样子还能抓一下,准备下周55-60再放出去,希望能到3000美金[财迷] 。 目前大盘看起来短期还是会向上,市场消化加息的预期非常迅速。不过这个月原油又在涨,有点担心下个月发布的7月份cpi和pce指数,下半年还加不加就看8-9月份的了,现在涨的原因主要方面是加息预期降低。 下周重点关注$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 的财报,超预期基本上十拿九稳的了,下季度指引估计也会很好。但是还是有一些需要关注的,第一是利润率,第二是第三季度能否开始正式交付cybertruck,昨天出的新闻第一辆量产是好消息,但是预期周产量是多少,什么时候可以交付,肯定是重点,个人预计应该是在三季度尾开始交付。第三就是马老板本人了,不要又食言,趁股价上涨又开始抛售了[黑眼圈] ,鉴于之前马老板食言过,我觉得大家要小心这点。加上最近他那么能折腾,推特有$Meta Platforms(META)$ 这个对手,又想弄AI,感觉马老板又要套现去做事情了,大家真的要小心[捂脸] 。 @爱发红包的虎妞","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c61621ac81b9582f61ae862c89441845","width":"1080","height":"446"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/198621971050528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3555825791073419","authorId":"3555825791073419","name":"小冯你好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a481e3cc05165c6239fdd7098576515","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3555825791073419","idStr":"3555825791073419"},"content":"你是怎么转账过去的","text":"你是怎么转账过去的","html":"你是怎么转账过去的"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":669778248,"gmtCreate":1662645573784,"gmtModify":1662647002036,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487598394018785","idStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"title":"浅谈巴菲特最近的操作以及巴菲特可能对后市的预判","htmlText":"1.上季度巨亏437亿美元 以伯克希尔的投资组合来看,是不太可能造成这么大的亏损的,加上保险业务也没有巨额赔付,所以这次巨亏的重点肯定是在财务报表的会计算法上。以伯克希尔的资金体量来看,无论是投资还是减持,都会对市场造成巨量波动。所以很可能巴菲特在运用金融衍生品来交割股票。比如老虎里很火热的sell put或者是buy call,都是非常好的交割股票的方式。而且通过金融衍生品来交割股票,好处非常多,第一,可以保证自己股票交割的价格范围,保护自己的收益或者控制投资股票的成本。第二,通过金融衍生品交割可以不直接参与市场,间接完成自己的投资操作,避免了市场第一时间知道自己的投资行为。毕竟以巴菲特这种声望的投资大佬,一举一动都会被市场放大,肯定是不希望自己的行为马上被市场知道,避免股价哄抬或者出售时被压价。所以上季度的伯克希尔巨亏,是巴菲特通过金融衍生品做什么大动作,在财务和会计算法上体现是亏损而已,如无意外,巴菲特肯定是有大动作的了。 2.投资西方石油 这个举动我认为是非常符合巴菲特的投资习惯的。首先西方石油这家公司在最近原油上涨的时候,不断下降自身的负债比例,这对经营管理方面是非常好的,减少自身风险,加上现金流充沛,季息分红稳定,想不到不投资的理由。加上俄乌冲突,opec减产,通货膨胀,汇率波动,至少这两年我个人认为油价都不会怎么掉,也就是说西方石油等这类能源股,最起码这几年依然是盆满钵满。巴菲特这种等级的投资人审慎的肯定更多方面,至于巴菲特看到多久,希望巴菲特老长命百岁哈哈哈。毕竟巴德国说过如果一只股票你不想持有十年,那你一分钟都不要持有。 3.减持比亚迪 巴菲特投资比亚迪14年30倍,其实也差不多到了退出的时候了。平均一年2.14倍的回报,已经非常可观。退出的原因,我认为有两点,第一,从已经获取可观回报的企业退出套现获取现金流。喜欢巴菲特的都知道巴老非常重视现金流,伯克希尔","listText":"1.上季度巨亏437亿美元 以伯克希尔的投资组合来看,是不太可能造成这么大的亏损的,加上保险业务也没有巨额赔付,所以这次巨亏的重点肯定是在财务报表的会计算法上。以伯克希尔的资金体量来看,无论是投资还是减持,都会对市场造成巨量波动。所以很可能巴菲特在运用金融衍生品来交割股票。比如老虎里很火热的sell put或者是buy call,都是非常好的交割股票的方式。而且通过金融衍生品来交割股票,好处非常多,第一,可以保证自己股票交割的价格范围,保护自己的收益或者控制投资股票的成本。第二,通过金融衍生品交割可以不直接参与市场,间接完成自己的投资操作,避免了市场第一时间知道自己的投资行为。毕竟以巴菲特这种声望的投资大佬,一举一动都会被市场放大,肯定是不希望自己的行为马上被市场知道,避免股价哄抬或者出售时被压价。所以上季度的伯克希尔巨亏,是巴菲特通过金融衍生品做什么大动作,在财务和会计算法上体现是亏损而已,如无意外,巴菲特肯定是有大动作的了。 2.投资西方石油 这个举动我认为是非常符合巴菲特的投资习惯的。首先西方石油这家公司在最近原油上涨的时候,不断下降自身的负债比例,这对经营管理方面是非常好的,减少自身风险,加上现金流充沛,季息分红稳定,想不到不投资的理由。加上俄乌冲突,opec减产,通货膨胀,汇率波动,至少这两年我个人认为油价都不会怎么掉,也就是说西方石油等这类能源股,最起码这几年依然是盆满钵满。巴菲特这种等级的投资人审慎的肯定更多方面,至于巴菲特看到多久,希望巴菲特老长命百岁哈哈哈。毕竟巴德国说过如果一只股票你不想持有十年,那你一分钟都不要持有。 3.减持比亚迪 巴菲特投资比亚迪14年30倍,其实也差不多到了退出的时候了。平均一年2.14倍的回报,已经非常可观。退出的原因,我认为有两点,第一,从已经获取可观回报的企业退出套现获取现金流。喜欢巴菲特的都知道巴老非常重视现金流,伯克希尔","text":"1.上季度巨亏437亿美元 以伯克希尔的投资组合来看,是不太可能造成这么大的亏损的,加上保险业务也没有巨额赔付,所以这次巨亏的重点肯定是在财务报表的会计算法上。以伯克希尔的资金体量来看,无论是投资还是减持,都会对市场造成巨量波动。所以很可能巴菲特在运用金融衍生品来交割股票。比如老虎里很火热的sell put或者是buy call,都是非常好的交割股票的方式。而且通过金融衍生品来交割股票,好处非常多,第一,可以保证自己股票交割的价格范围,保护自己的收益或者控制投资股票的成本。第二,通过金融衍生品交割可以不直接参与市场,间接完成自己的投资操作,避免了市场第一时间知道自己的投资行为。毕竟以巴菲特这种声望的投资大佬,一举一动都会被市场放大,肯定是不希望自己的行为马上被市场知道,避免股价哄抬或者出售时被压价。所以上季度的伯克希尔巨亏,是巴菲特通过金融衍生品做什么大动作,在财务和会计算法上体现是亏损而已,如无意外,巴菲特肯定是有大动作的了。 2.投资西方石油 这个举动我认为是非常符合巴菲特的投资习惯的。首先西方石油这家公司在最近原油上涨的时候,不断下降自身的负债比例,这对经营管理方面是非常好的,减少自身风险,加上现金流充沛,季息分红稳定,想不到不投资的理由。加上俄乌冲突,opec减产,通货膨胀,汇率波动,至少这两年我个人认为油价都不会怎么掉,也就是说西方石油等这类能源股,最起码这几年依然是盆满钵满。巴菲特这种等级的投资人审慎的肯定更多方面,至于巴菲特看到多久,希望巴菲特老长命百岁哈哈哈。毕竟巴德国说过如果一只股票你不想持有十年,那你一分钟都不要持有。 3.减持比亚迪 巴菲特投资比亚迪14年30倍,其实也差不多到了退出的时候了。平均一年2.14倍的回报,已经非常可观。退出的原因,我认为有两点,第一,从已经获取可观回报的企业退出套现获取现金流。喜欢巴菲特的都知道巴老非常重视现金流,伯克希尔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":27,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/669778248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16648,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000303","authorId":"9000000000000303","name":"高富不帅W","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9375ece8939095541554d14ce83b2fa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000303","idStr":"9000000000000303"},"content":"经济衰退,还是留点现金好啊","text":"经济衰退,还是留点现金好啊","html":"经济衰退,还是留点现金好啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":323131432,"gmtCreate":1615308061926,"gmtModify":1703487214355,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487598394018785","idStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"title":"拼多多的刀,还能砍多远?","htmlText":"荣获脱贫攻坚集体、社区团购被罚、春节期间两天日活超越淘宝、生鲜业务增速超100%GMV达2700亿、更多资本增持拼多多股份等等。在利好与利空环绕的氛围中,让我对即将更新财报的拼多多,又多了几分期待和担忧。 每次,拼多多的财报,不外乎谈论几个点,活跃买家、GMV、营收、利润率、新业务的拓展情况等等。而且,每次拼多多的财报,都能让大家非常振奋,因为每次增速都是大超预期。不过这次,我觉得拼多多的财报对于投资者的意义非同小可,以下我着重提几个这次我特别看重的点: l 活跃买家增速,Q4季度很可能追平甚至超越淘宝 l GMV增速,在双十一与春节前的加持下,能否再创新高 l 营收与利润率的增速与平衡 l 能否保持连续两个季度GAAP盈利 l 新业务的拓展、社区团购、多多钱包以及短视频(着重点) 相信不少拼多多的投资者,或多或少都有使用过拼多多这个每天都被人砍地死去活来的APP。我就是拼多多的重度用户。平时通过观察拼多多的变化,看拼多多背后的业务逻辑以及对应的业务需求。 除了社区团购,拼多多最近悄然上了两个新的模块,多多钱包以及短视频业务。 首先,多多钱包。 支付业务,大家都知道拼多多迟早会做的。如果拼多多没有在春节前连挂三天热榜(懂的都懂),在春晚的加持下,多多钱包这个业务应该能大放异彩。可惜,事与愿违。不过即使这样,拼多多还是上线了这个业务。目前看来,拼多多对这项业务的推广,堪比百亿补贴,下图就是我在拼多多购物时,使用多多钱包付款的界面: 目前看来,拼多多对这项业务的重视程度 ,不亚于百亿补贴。要知道,拼多多现在每天的单量,都是亿级以上,每天砸在钱包业务的补贴,就在千万级别,一个月就是几个亿的补贴量。虽然没有春晚的加持,但是在这样的加码力度下,我相信钱包业务的推广也会非常顺利。 支付业务背后的商业逻辑,有蚂蚁金服以及微信钱包作为例子,","listText":"荣获脱贫攻坚集体、社区团购被罚、春节期间两天日活超越淘宝、生鲜业务增速超100%GMV达2700亿、更多资本增持拼多多股份等等。在利好与利空环绕的氛围中,让我对即将更新财报的拼多多,又多了几分期待和担忧。 每次,拼多多的财报,不外乎谈论几个点,活跃买家、GMV、营收、利润率、新业务的拓展情况等等。而且,每次拼多多的财报,都能让大家非常振奋,因为每次增速都是大超预期。不过这次,我觉得拼多多的财报对于投资者的意义非同小可,以下我着重提几个这次我特别看重的点: l 活跃买家增速,Q4季度很可能追平甚至超越淘宝 l GMV增速,在双十一与春节前的加持下,能否再创新高 l 营收与利润率的增速与平衡 l 能否保持连续两个季度GAAP盈利 l 新业务的拓展、社区团购、多多钱包以及短视频(着重点) 相信不少拼多多的投资者,或多或少都有使用过拼多多这个每天都被人砍地死去活来的APP。我就是拼多多的重度用户。平时通过观察拼多多的变化,看拼多多背后的业务逻辑以及对应的业务需求。 除了社区团购,拼多多最近悄然上了两个新的模块,多多钱包以及短视频业务。 首先,多多钱包。 支付业务,大家都知道拼多多迟早会做的。如果拼多多没有在春节前连挂三天热榜(懂的都懂),在春晚的加持下,多多钱包这个业务应该能大放异彩。可惜,事与愿违。不过即使这样,拼多多还是上线了这个业务。目前看来,拼多多对这项业务的推广,堪比百亿补贴,下图就是我在拼多多购物时,使用多多钱包付款的界面: 目前看来,拼多多对这项业务的重视程度 ,不亚于百亿补贴。要知道,拼多多现在每天的单量,都是亿级以上,每天砸在钱包业务的补贴,就在千万级别,一个月就是几个亿的补贴量。虽然没有春晚的加持,但是在这样的加码力度下,我相信钱包业务的推广也会非常顺利。 支付业务背后的商业逻辑,有蚂蚁金服以及微信钱包作为例子,","text":"荣获脱贫攻坚集体、社区团购被罚、春节期间两天日活超越淘宝、生鲜业务增速超100%GMV达2700亿、更多资本增持拼多多股份等等。在利好与利空环绕的氛围中,让我对即将更新财报的拼多多,又多了几分期待和担忧。 每次,拼多多的财报,不外乎谈论几个点,活跃买家、GMV、营收、利润率、新业务的拓展情况等等。而且,每次拼多多的财报,都能让大家非常振奋,因为每次增速都是大超预期。不过这次,我觉得拼多多的财报对于投资者的意义非同小可,以下我着重提几个这次我特别看重的点: l 活跃买家增速,Q4季度很可能追平甚至超越淘宝 l GMV增速,在双十一与春节前的加持下,能否再创新高 l 营收与利润率的增速与平衡 l 能否保持连续两个季度GAAP盈利 l 新业务的拓展、社区团购、多多钱包以及短视频(着重点) 相信不少拼多多的投资者,或多或少都有使用过拼多多这个每天都被人砍地死去活来的APP。我就是拼多多的重度用户。平时通过观察拼多多的变化,看拼多多背后的业务逻辑以及对应的业务需求。 除了社区团购,拼多多最近悄然上了两个新的模块,多多钱包以及短视频业务。 首先,多多钱包。 支付业务,大家都知道拼多多迟早会做的。如果拼多多没有在春节前连挂三天热榜(懂的都懂),在春晚的加持下,多多钱包这个业务应该能大放异彩。可惜,事与愿违。不过即使这样,拼多多还是上线了这个业务。目前看来,拼多多对这项业务的推广,堪比百亿补贴,下图就是我在拼多多购物时,使用多多钱包付款的界面: 目前看来,拼多多对这项业务的重视程度 ,不亚于百亿补贴。要知道,拼多多现在每天的单量,都是亿级以上,每天砸在钱包业务的补贴,就在千万级别,一个月就是几个亿的补贴量。虽然没有春晚的加持,但是在这样的加码力度下,我相信钱包业务的推广也会非常顺利。 支付业务背后的商业逻辑,有蚂蚁金服以及微信钱包作为例子,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1621486b44b9fd13c9f9b4ed7a791c84","width":"1080","height":"1410"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":25,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/323131432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":22361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3507100337626534","authorId":"3507100337626534","name":"锅炉工","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3507100337626534","idStr":"3507100337626534"},"content":"你个卖假货的,还想转正,做梦呢","text":"你个卖假货的,还想转正,做梦呢","html":"你个卖假货的,还想转正,做梦呢"}],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":328312291,"gmtCreate":1615491393213,"gmtModify":1703489924153,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487598394018785","idStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"title":"B站,正在崛起的圈层泛娱乐帝国","htmlText":"不出意外,B站在香港的招股,大受欢迎。作为一名错过投资B站和B站的重度用户,心里虽然是五味杂陈,但是看到B站越来越好,打心底里还是非常高兴的。 (本人虽然不是6级大佬,但是B站的老用户都懂5级号的意义,不过多解释) 破圈、中国的YOUTUBE(油管)正在崛起、被抛弃的二次元以及不断发生事故的UP主,这些标签一直伴随着2020年的B站。看似B站也在往这个方向走。之前的我也是这么认为,认为虽然B站是视频行业这条赛道上的另类,但是这条赛道上依然是布满荆棘,血流遍步,这也是为什么之前不打算投资B站的原因,看似新颖,但依旧是个在视频行业打滚的顽童罢了,即不打算搬抄YOUTUBE这个偶像(也抄不了,毕竟YOUTOBE背靠谷歌这个信息流广告巨头大树),也不打算借鉴爱优腾这些前辈,想独树一帜,即使一直流血,也要树立“独特”这面大旗。(B站一直亏损众所周知,而且扩大业务扩大营收的情况下,亏损也是成倍的增加) 真正让我想投资B站,以及思考B站的时刻,是在去年的4月份,索尼音乐5亿美金入股B站的时候。那时,索尼音乐不仅入股B站,还将音乐版权共享给B站,用户可免费在B站欣赏索尼音乐版权的音乐。 B站的股东阵营强大,是众所周知的,有阿里腾讯这样的中国互联网巨头,也有IDG黑石这类的国际资本。但是索尼音乐的入股,让我思索很久,索尼音乐入股的行为,其中背后的意义值得让我深思。阿里腾讯投资B站,是出于战略的意义,IDG黑石这类资本投资B站,出于财务投资的考虑,而索尼音乐与B站,既没有业务上的业务重合需要战略投资B站(甚至业务上还有冲突),财务上也有很多比B站更值得投资的公司,那为什么,索尼音乐要投资B站甚至资源共享给B站,这就引出两个问题,B站到底是什么?B站到底想做什么? 1. 首先,B站到底是什么?让我们看看百度词条的简述。 这里面,有个几个词着重需要提取,中国年轻世代、高度聚集、文化社区、","listText":"不出意外,B站在香港的招股,大受欢迎。作为一名错过投资B站和B站的重度用户,心里虽然是五味杂陈,但是看到B站越来越好,打心底里还是非常高兴的。 (本人虽然不是6级大佬,但是B站的老用户都懂5级号的意义,不过多解释) 破圈、中国的YOUTUBE(油管)正在崛起、被抛弃的二次元以及不断发生事故的UP主,这些标签一直伴随着2020年的B站。看似B站也在往这个方向走。之前的我也是这么认为,认为虽然B站是视频行业这条赛道上的另类,但是这条赛道上依然是布满荆棘,血流遍步,这也是为什么之前不打算投资B站的原因,看似新颖,但依旧是个在视频行业打滚的顽童罢了,即不打算搬抄YOUTUBE这个偶像(也抄不了,毕竟YOUTOBE背靠谷歌这个信息流广告巨头大树),也不打算借鉴爱优腾这些前辈,想独树一帜,即使一直流血,也要树立“独特”这面大旗。(B站一直亏损众所周知,而且扩大业务扩大营收的情况下,亏损也是成倍的增加) 真正让我想投资B站,以及思考B站的时刻,是在去年的4月份,索尼音乐5亿美金入股B站的时候。那时,索尼音乐不仅入股B站,还将音乐版权共享给B站,用户可免费在B站欣赏索尼音乐版权的音乐。 B站的股东阵营强大,是众所周知的,有阿里腾讯这样的中国互联网巨头,也有IDG黑石这类的国际资本。但是索尼音乐的入股,让我思索很久,索尼音乐入股的行为,其中背后的意义值得让我深思。阿里腾讯投资B站,是出于战略的意义,IDG黑石这类资本投资B站,出于财务投资的考虑,而索尼音乐与B站,既没有业务上的业务重合需要战略投资B站(甚至业务上还有冲突),财务上也有很多比B站更值得投资的公司,那为什么,索尼音乐要投资B站甚至资源共享给B站,这就引出两个问题,B站到底是什么?B站到底想做什么? 1. 首先,B站到底是什么?让我们看看百度词条的简述。 这里面,有个几个词着重需要提取,中国年轻世代、高度聚集、文化社区、","text":"不出意外,B站在香港的招股,大受欢迎。作为一名错过投资B站和B站的重度用户,心里虽然是五味杂陈,但是看到B站越来越好,打心底里还是非常高兴的。 (本人虽然不是6级大佬,但是B站的老用户都懂5级号的意义,不过多解释) 破圈、中国的YOUTUBE(油管)正在崛起、被抛弃的二次元以及不断发生事故的UP主,这些标签一直伴随着2020年的B站。看似B站也在往这个方向走。之前的我也是这么认为,认为虽然B站是视频行业这条赛道上的另类,但是这条赛道上依然是布满荆棘,血流遍步,这也是为什么之前不打算投资B站的原因,看似新颖,但依旧是个在视频行业打滚的顽童罢了,即不打算搬抄YOUTUBE这个偶像(也抄不了,毕竟YOUTOBE背靠谷歌这个信息流广告巨头大树),也不打算借鉴爱优腾这些前辈,想独树一帜,即使一直流血,也要树立“独特”这面大旗。(B站一直亏损众所周知,而且扩大业务扩大营收的情况下,亏损也是成倍的增加) 真正让我想投资B站,以及思考B站的时刻,是在去年的4月份,索尼音乐5亿美金入股B站的时候。那时,索尼音乐不仅入股B站,还将音乐版权共享给B站,用户可免费在B站欣赏索尼音乐版权的音乐。 B站的股东阵营强大,是众所周知的,有阿里腾讯这样的中国互联网巨头,也有IDG黑石这类的国际资本。但是索尼音乐的入股,让我思索很久,索尼音乐入股的行为,其中背后的意义值得让我深思。阿里腾讯投资B站,是出于战略的意义,IDG黑石这类资本投资B站,出于财务投资的考虑,而索尼音乐与B站,既没有业务上的业务重合需要战略投资B站(甚至业务上还有冲突),财务上也有很多比B站更值得投资的公司,那为什么,索尼音乐要投资B站甚至资源共享给B站,这就引出两个问题,B站到底是什么?B站到底想做什么? 1. 首先,B站到底是什么?让我们看看百度词条的简述。 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$</a>拼多多3月17号发布财报,大家有没有发现,每次拼多多发布财报的前后,拼多多都会有很大的振幅。虽然规律不代表逻辑,但是还蛮规律的,大家怎么看?","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$拼多多3月17号发布财报,大家有没有发现,每次拼多多发布财报的前后,拼多多都会有很大的振幅。虽然规律不代表逻辑,但是还蛮规律的,大家怎么看?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/328382815","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2913,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3511234737873187","authorId":"3511234737873187","name":"哈咯吉他","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3511234737873187","idStr":"3511234737873187"},"content":"没有公告317出财报","text":"没有公告317出财报","html":"没有公告317出财报"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":661013233,"gmtCreate":1663575939022,"gmtModify":1663577332721,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487598394018785","idStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"title":"谈谈美联储周四加息及这周的走势","htmlText":"这周的焦点肯定是聚集到周四美联储加息的问题上,大家关注的都是美联储是加息75还是100个基点的问题上。我个人看法应该就加息75个基点。原因有三,第一,加息75个基点给后市留有余地,可以观察9月份10月份的数据再决定后期加的幅度。第二,加息100个基点容易急剧加速市场的经济萎缩以及破坏金融市场的稳定性。虽然说鲍威尔总说把物价降低才是首位,但各个地方都是要兼顾的,加上很快就要中期选举了,所以金融市场的稳定性也是要维持住的,至少避免发生剧烈下跌的事情发生。估计鲍威尔心里也有数,就是保持在某个基准的指标以及点位,这个就只有鲍威尔自己知道了(物价降到2%已经是众所周知的了,问题是金融市场的维持,要到什么程度,我个人估计,应该是9000-10000点左右)。第三,剧烈加息会加剧房贷利率的飙升,前阵子我发了一篇短文,说房利美的数据到了5.43%,最新的数据已经到了6.02%了。不要小看房贷利率的飙升,对于现代人,尤其是美国人,房贷其实占收入比重相当大一部分,这也就是为什么这次物价指数下降不了的原因,因为房贷利率一直在上涨,而且加息越厉害,房贷利率越高,对于美联储要达成的目标,有害无利。所以综合这三点,周四加息75个基点,应该是铁板钉钉的了,坐等打脸。 房利美的最新数据,已经到了6.02%了 至于这周的走势,估计周三前,都是以下跌为主基调,期间可能会小幅震荡,但不会上涨。重点在于周四,走势一定是根据加息的幅度而决定。如果是加息75个基点,我个人认为上涨的可能性非常大。结合上上周的走势来看,现在市场的态度就是只要不是最坏,那就是利好。因为75个基点已经是在预期内的事情了(当然那一轮上涨还没有100个基点什么事,还在讨论50-75,而且还相当看好8月的物价指数,结果被打脸了)。所以我认为这周应该是前三天以跌为主,周四周五应该会反弹。 以上皆是个人看法,不构成投资建议,欢迎大家一起来讨论。","listText":"这周的焦点肯定是聚集到周四美联储加息的问题上,大家关注的都是美联储是加息75还是100个基点的问题上。我个人看法应该就加息75个基点。原因有三,第一,加息75个基点给后市留有余地,可以观察9月份10月份的数据再决定后期加的幅度。第二,加息100个基点容易急剧加速市场的经济萎缩以及破坏金融市场的稳定性。虽然说鲍威尔总说把物价降低才是首位,但各个地方都是要兼顾的,加上很快就要中期选举了,所以金融市场的稳定性也是要维持住的,至少避免发生剧烈下跌的事情发生。估计鲍威尔心里也有数,就是保持在某个基准的指标以及点位,这个就只有鲍威尔自己知道了(物价降到2%已经是众所周知的了,问题是金融市场的维持,要到什么程度,我个人估计,应该是9000-10000点左右)。第三,剧烈加息会加剧房贷利率的飙升,前阵子我发了一篇短文,说房利美的数据到了5.43%,最新的数据已经到了6.02%了。不要小看房贷利率的飙升,对于现代人,尤其是美国人,房贷其实占收入比重相当大一部分,这也就是为什么这次物价指数下降不了的原因,因为房贷利率一直在上涨,而且加息越厉害,房贷利率越高,对于美联储要达成的目标,有害无利。所以综合这三点,周四加息75个基点,应该是铁板钉钉的了,坐等打脸。 房利美的最新数据,已经到了6.02%了 至于这周的走势,估计周三前,都是以下跌为主基调,期间可能会小幅震荡,但不会上涨。重点在于周四,走势一定是根据加息的幅度而决定。如果是加息75个基点,我个人认为上涨的可能性非常大。结合上上周的走势来看,现在市场的态度就是只要不是最坏,那就是利好。因为75个基点已经是在预期内的事情了(当然那一轮上涨还没有100个基点什么事,还在讨论50-75,而且还相当看好8月的物价指数,结果被打脸了)。所以我认为这周应该是前三天以跌为主,周四周五应该会反弹。 以上皆是个人看法,不构成投资建议,欢迎大家一起来讨论。","text":"这周的焦点肯定是聚集到周四美联储加息的问题上,大家关注的都是美联储是加息75还是100个基点的问题上。我个人看法应该就加息75个基点。原因有三,第一,加息75个基点给后市留有余地,可以观察9月份10月份的数据再决定后期加的幅度。第二,加息100个基点容易急剧加速市场的经济萎缩以及破坏金融市场的稳定性。虽然说鲍威尔总说把物价降低才是首位,但各个地方都是要兼顾的,加上很快就要中期选举了,所以金融市场的稳定性也是要维持住的,至少避免发生剧烈下跌的事情发生。估计鲍威尔心里也有数,就是保持在某个基准的指标以及点位,这个就只有鲍威尔自己知道了(物价降到2%已经是众所周知的了,问题是金融市场的维持,要到什么程度,我个人估计,应该是9000-10000点左右)。第三,剧烈加息会加剧房贷利率的飙升,前阵子我发了一篇短文,说房利美的数据到了5.43%,最新的数据已经到了6.02%了。不要小看房贷利率的飙升,对于现代人,尤其是美国人,房贷其实占收入比重相当大一部分,这也就是为什么这次物价指数下降不了的原因,因为房贷利率一直在上涨,而且加息越厉害,房贷利率越高,对于美联储要达成的目标,有害无利。所以综合这三点,周四加息75个基点,应该是铁板钉钉的了,坐等打脸。 房利美的最新数据,已经到了6.02%了 至于这周的走势,估计周三前,都是以下跌为主基调,期间可能会小幅震荡,但不会上涨。重点在于周四,走势一定是根据加息的幅度而决定。如果是加息75个基点,我个人认为上涨的可能性非常大。结合上上周的走势来看,现在市场的态度就是只要不是最坏,那就是利好。因为75个基点已经是在预期内的事情了(当然那一轮上涨还没有100个基点什么事,还在讨论50-75,而且还相当看好8月的物价指数,结果被打脸了)。所以我认为这周应该是前三天以跌为主,周四周五应该会反弹。 以上皆是个人看法,不构成投资建议,欢迎大家一起来讨论。","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3def0c4a950702b77438649dfcc262c","width":"836","height":"462"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661013233","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2572,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"content":"放的什么罗圈屁,你家银行利率不高,可你家房贷利率低了???","text":"放的什么罗圈屁,你家银行利率不高,可你家房贷利率低了???","html":"放的什么罗圈屁,你家银行利率不高,可你家房贷利率低了???"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":350497029837144,"gmtCreate":1726598461897,"gmtModify":1726639486182,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487598394018785","idStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"老鲍是很保守风格的,大降反而没有给后面留余地,大概率先25bp看看反应再说,毕竟后面随时可以调控。买入vix价内看涨期权再说,加上20号日本有利率会议,估计会释放年内日本再加息的信号。","listText":"老鲍是很保守风格的,大降反而没有给后面留余地,大概率先25bp看看反应再说,毕竟后面随时可以调控。买入vix价内看涨期权再说,加上20号日本有利率会议,估计会释放年内日本再加息的信号。","text":"老鲍是很保守风格的,大降反而没有给后面留余地,大概率先25bp看看反应再说,毕竟后面随时可以调控。买入vix价内看涨期权再说,加上20号日本有利率会议,估计会释放年内日本再加息的信号。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/350497029837144","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283526452711576,"gmtCreate":1710259231184,"gmtModify":1710259232974,"author":{"id":"3487598394018785","authorId":"3487598394018785","name":"AXe","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f6c899634308ca69c5da73be5740dbe","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3487598394018785","idStr":"3487598394018785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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