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期权哥哥
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期权哥哥
2021-07-24
my friends tell me that NIO will sell 100,000 in 2021, and over 160,000 in 2022.
Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks
期权哥哥
2021-01-15
$蔚来(NIO)$
几十万张今晚到期的期权,会不会狠杀?
期权哥哥
2021-01-07
$爱奇艺(IQ)$
18.8震荡接近一个小时,骗走了我的筹码。
期权哥哥
2020-11-20
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
周五开盘一个半小时,想走的应该都走差不多了吧。
期权哥哥
2020-11-19
$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$
开盘这一波高开下杀,赌财报的应该走了一半了吧。一会儿再杀一下估计能走光了。
期权哥哥
2020-11-18
$晶科能源(JKS)$
其他太阳能票连续大涨,这票是财报前压盘吧
期权哥哥
2020-11-04
$蔚来(NIO)$
兄弟们,涨得太可怕了,我先走了避避风头,你们继续赚大钱。
期权哥哥
2020-09-25
$蔚来(NIO)$
每个周五都要杀半天的期权,太难了。
期权哥哥
2020-09-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
大盘无虞,睡觉去。
期权哥哥
2020-09-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
看了一下,本周存量末日期权比上周还多,难怪涨不起来,机构卖卖期权爽得很,股价横盘才好。
期权哥哥
2020-09-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
趁着特斯拉拉升的时候出货,这帮转债狗手头是有多少货啊。
期权哥哥
2020-09-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
好歹是200亿流通市值的中大盘股票了,散户又特别多,这么点成交量拉不起来的,撑着不跌已经不错了。
期权哥哥
2020-09-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
最近这走势应该是受到低价可转债转股平仓导致的,基本涨幅只有特斯拉一半,不过之前特斯拉跌的厉害时候,跌幅不到特斯拉一半,算是中和了。
期权哥哥
2020-09-14
$蔚来(NIO)$
旅途漫漫,总是有人执着于上上下下的快感,有人却享受长途的漫漫风景。
期权哥哥
2020-09-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
老蔚来股东了,预测今晚估计收在18之上,软件显示期权昨天大量平仓了,今天开盘洗了也平的差不多了。
期权哥哥
2020-09-10
$蔚来(NIO)$
盘中每次特斯拉拉升这货就不动,特斯拉小调整几毛钱,它也跌1毛钱,见鬼了。
期权哥哥
2020-08-11
$蔚来(NIO)$
埋伏赌财报的开盘赶紧都走吧,别影响我们这些老股东。
期权哥哥
2020-07-28
$蔚来(NIO)$
感觉似乎在洗盘,不知道要洗几天了。洗盘+磨期权。
期权哥哥
2020-07-22
$蔚来(NIO)$
安徽最近强降雨,蔚来工厂再巢湖边上,不知道会不会受影响。天气预报过两天还有大雨要下,希望工厂端做好防控,设备一泡水可就完蛋了。
期权哥哥
2020-07-03
$蔚来(NIO)$
论坛里面死忠粉太多了压制了股价,多一些空头活跃反而更好。
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friends tell me that NIO will sell 100,000 in 2021, and over 160,000 in 2022.","listText":"my friends tell me that NIO will sell 100,000 in 2021, and over 160,000 in 2022.","text":"my friends tell me that NIO will sell 100,000 in 2021, and over 160,000 in 2022.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/174668700","repostId":"1112927800","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1112927800","pubTimestamp":1627089375,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112927800?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-24 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112927800","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Let's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.</li>\n <li>NIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.</li>\n <li>NIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f749c70c8a2af3e18d5f6cecc72bfbb\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"704\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>ipopba/iStock via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Article Thesis</b></p>\n<p>NIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.</p>\n<p><b>NIO And TSLA Stock Prices</b></p>\n<p>Both companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ff5ce865807df85283775d2293b41af\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"481\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Taking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO Similar To Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:</p>\n<p><b>Business Model</b></p>\n<p>Both companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.</p>\n<p>Both companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.</p>\n<p><b>Size, growth, and valuation</b></p>\n<p>The two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.</p>\n<p>Tesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a986ea65130206f99961a46ce6cfed55\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"515\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>Tesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.</p>\n<p>The same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).</p>\n<p>Looking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.</p>\n<p><b>Can NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?</b></p>\n<p>The answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).</p>\n<p>When we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.</p>\n<p>It should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.</p>\n<p><b>Is NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?</b></p>\n<p>When considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.</p>\n<p>One could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill NIO Stock Follow Tesla's Footsteps? What To Consider Between These Two EV Stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-24 09:16 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4440950-will-nio-stock-follow-tesla-what-to-consider-ev-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112927800","content_text":"Summary\n\nLet's take a look at how NIO compares to Tesla today, NIO's unique selling points, and the similarities between the two companies.\nNIO is a high-growth choice that does not seem overly expensive relative to how Tesla is valued.\nNIO is not a low-risk stock, however, and it may not be a good choice for everyone. Investors should also consider NIO's valuation versus legacy car companies.\n\nipopba/iStock via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nNIO, Inc. (NIO) is one of China's leading EV players, and has, through an attractive brand and its unique BaaS offering, attracted a lot of interest from consumers and investors. Today, however, the company is still way smaller than Tesla (TSLA), which is currently leading the global EV market. NIO is focused on its home market right now, which was true when Tesla was a smaller company as well, but NIO will try to grab market share in overseas markets as well. Shares are pricing in a lot of growth already, but if NIO can replicate Tesla's success, that could be more than justified.\nNIO And TSLA Stock Prices\nBoth companies have benefitted from growing interest in EVs during 2020, a trend that saw share prices of most EV pureplays rise rapidly. The combination of growing market share for EVs, accommodating policies such as subsidies for EV purchases, and massive monetary stimulus let shares of NIO and TSLA rise rapidly. NIO is up 245% over the last year, while TSLA is up 101% over the same time. Both companies are currently trading below their all-time highs, however, which were hit in early 2021 before market sentiment for EV pureplays cooled to some degree.\nData by YCharts\nTaking a quick look at analyst price targets, we see that Tesla is trading almost perfectly in line with the consensus, whereas NIO trades about 30% below the analyst target. If the analyst community is right, then NIO is a substantially better investment right here, as Tesla is not expected to see its shares rise meaningfully over the next year, whereas NIO has significant upside to the analyst price target.\nIs NIO Similar To Tesla?\nThe answer to that question depends on what you focus on. There are similarities between the two companies, but there are also differences. One could thus say that, in some ways, the two are similar, but in others, they are not. Let's look at a couple of things:\nBusiness Model\nBoth companies are focused on the EV space, although Tesla has, over the years, been building out a couple of other businesses as well, such as energy storage. Most of Tesla's revenues are generated through selling electric vehicles, which is also how NIO operates. Both companies are focused on the premium segment of EVs, selling higher-priced vehicles that compete with brands such as BMW, Mercedes, and Lexus. Both companies offer a small range of different vehicles, in Tesla's case those are the well-known S, X, 3, and Y, whereas NIO offers a sedan (ET7), and three SUVs (EC6, ES6, ES8). Despite the fact that NIO is a way smaller company today, the model lineups of the two companies do thus not differ too much.\nBoth companies offer some type of charging infrastructure to their customers, in Tesla's case, that's the Supercharger network, where Tesla owners can charge their cars with up to 250kW, depending on what version of Supercharger is installed. NIO is following a different approach, offering a battery-as-a-service solution to its customers. NIO owners can get their battery switched out to a fully-charged battery at NIO's stations, a process that takes a couple of minutes and is thus significantly quicker compared to the regular EV charging offered by Tesla and other EV players. BaaS thus has advantages when it comes to the time it takes for a charge/swap, but it should be noted that Tesla's Superchargers are way more common around the world compared to NIO's battery-swapping stations. Rolling out that feature in additional markets will require large capital expenditures, but NIO's offering is a unique selling point compared to what all other EV players, including Tesla, are offering. It remains to be seen whether that will ultimately pay off, but this could become a major advantage for NIO as competition in the EV space is heating up.\nSize, growth, and valuation\nThe two companies differ significantly in size, both when it comes to revenues and vehicle sales, as well as when it comes to the market value of the two companies. NIO has delivered22,000 vehicles in Q2, up 112% year over year, for an annual pace of around 90,000 vehicles. Tesla, meanwhile, has delivered 201,000 vehicles during Q2, up from 103,000 vehicles delivered during Q2 2020. This is strong growth on a year-over-year basis, although slightly below 100%, and thus below the growth rate that NIO is generating for now.\nTesla delivers around 9x as many vehicles compared to NIO per quarter, when we look at the market capitalizations of the two companies, we see that the ratio is almost exactly the same, as Tesla's market cap of $640 billion is ~9x as high as that of NIO, at $72 billion. At similar growth rates, that would make perfect sense, but it looks like NIO might be the better deal for now, as it trades at a comparable valuation while generating better growth. This will be especially true in the coming quarters, where Tesla's growth is expected to slow down:\nData by YCharts\nTesla is forecasted to grow its revenue from $49 billion in 2021 to $83 billion in 2023, for an annual growth rate of 30%. NIO, meanwhile, is expected to see its revenue explode upwards from $5.4 billion to $12.8 billion between 2021 and 2023, for an annual growth rate of 54%. NIO is thus expected to grow way faster than Tesla over the next two years, on a relative basis. This shouldn't be a surprise, to be honest, as the law of large numbers dictates that maintaining massive growth rates becomes increasingly hard for a company the bigger it gets, and Tesla seems to have hit that point by now -- adding 50%+ a year to its top line will not be possible forever. This isn't even necessarily Tesla's fault, in fact, many high-quality growth companies have experienced the same. But investors should still consider this important fact -- Tesla's growth in coming years will be less exciting compared to what we have seen in the past, and peers, such as NIO, are growing faster.\nThe same holds true when we take a longer-term view. Revenue estimates for 2025 rest at$22.6 billionfor NIO, up another 80% from the 2023 estimate, and up 320% from what analysts are forecasting for 2021. Tesla, meanwhile, is forecasted to generate revenues of $122.5 billion in 2025 -- a large number, but up by a comparatively weak 48% from 2023, and up by a total of 150% versus 2021. Between 2021 and 2025, NIO will thus 4x its revenue, while Tesla will 2.5x its revenue in the same time span -- a meaningful difference that should, all else equal, allow for a premium valuation for NIO, in the same way Tesla deserves a premium valuation versus legacy players such as Volkswagen (OTCPK:VWAGY).\nLooking at revenue estimates for 2025 relative to how the two companies are valued today, we see that NIO trades at 3.2x 2025 sales, while the 2025 sales multiple for Tesla is 5.2. For a long-term oriented investor, NIO thus seems like the better value today, thanks to the fact that it is trading at a significantly lower sales multiple when we take a look into the future. This does not necessarily mean that NIO is cheap, however, as even a 3.2x 2025 sales multiple is relatively high compared to how legacy auto companies are valued. NIO is looking less expensive than Tesla, however, even if its shares are not cheap on an absolute basis.\nCan NIO Be Worth As Much As Tesla?\nThe answer to that depends on what time frame you are looking at. Today, NIO is significantly smaller than Tesla and thus rightfully trades at a way smaller market cap. It should also be noted that there is no guarantee that Tesla's shares are a great example of how an EV company should be valued -- it is, at least, possible that its shares are significantly overpriced today, I personally believe that as well (Note that some will argue that shares are underpriced, which is also among the possibilities, although I do not hold that belief personally).\nWhen we do, for a moment, assume that Tesla is correctly valued today and that EV companies do deserve a market cap in the $600 billion range when they sell about 800,000 vehicles a year, then NIO could eventually hit that as well, although not in the near term. NIO will sell about 90,000 vehicles this year, and that amount should grow to about 400,000 in 2025. If NIO were to grow its sales by 15% a year beyond that point, it could sell around 800,000 cars in 2030, or 9 years from now. If one wants to assume faster growth, the 800,000 vehicles a year line could also be crossed before 2030, e.g. in 2028 or 2029. If we do go with 2030 for now, then NIO could, at a similar deliveries-to-market capitalization ratio to Tesla, be valued at $600+ billion in 2030. In other words, NIO could be worth as much as Tesla (today) in nine years, when we assume that current growth projections are realistic and that a Tesla-like valuation is appropriate. Those are two major ifs, of course, and especially the second point is far from certain, I believe. I personally would not be too surprised to see Tesla's valuation compress, and thus NIO could trade well below the $600 billion market cap level in 2030, even if it continues to grow meaningfully. It is also possible that NIO's growth disappoints and that current projections are too bullish, although I think that NIO is well-positioned for growth thanks to its unique BaaS model and its strong brand that is especially well-recognized in its home market.\nIt should also be noted that Tesla's market cap in 2030 could be very different from $600 billion, thus even in case NIO hits that level, it is not at all guaranteed that the two companies will have a similar market cap. Tesla might be valued at a way higher valuation by then, e.g. if the ARK model is right (something I personally think is unlikely). To answer the above question, one could thus say that NIO might be worth hundreds of billions of dollars, like Tesla, in 8-10 years, but that is not at all guaranteed. And even if that were to happen, Tesla might be worth significantly more by then.\nIs NIO A Good Stock To Buy Or Sell Now?\nWhen considering NIO as an investment, it doesn't really matter all that much whether it will become as large or highly valued as Tesla eventually. Instead, investors should ask themselves what total returns they can expect over the next couple of years, and whether those expected returns are high enough relative to the risks in NIO's business model. Regarding those risks, one should mention the fact that the company isn't profitable yet, which means that NIO is dependent on cash on its balance sheet for growth investments. On top of that, competition in the EV space is growing, and market share battles could pressure margins in coming years, although NIO seems relatively well-positioned thanks to its battery-swapping, which is, I believe, a strong USP. Last but not least, the company's dependence on its home market China is a potential risk that should be kept in mind, although it should also be noted that, for now, it seems like the Chinese government is very accommodating to Chinese EV companies.\nOne could argue that valuations across the whole EV industry are too high, relative to how legacy auto companies are valued. Even those legacy players with attractive EV offerings such as Volkswagen or Ford trade at huge discounts compared to EV pureplays. But if one wants to invest in an EV pureplay, NIO doesn't seem like a bad choice. The company combines a strong brand, a unique BaaS offering, high growth rates, and shares trade at a discount compared to how the EV king Tesla is valued. At a little above 3x 2025 revenue, NIO does not seem overly expensive relative to other EV pureplays, although this still represents a premium versus legacy players, of course. If NIO manages to execute well and continues to roll out new models that are well-received by consumers, its shares could have significant upside potential in the long run. If EV stocks ever become an out-of-favor investment, NIO stock also could have considerable downside, however, this thus is not a low-risk pick. Depending on your risk tolerance, NIO could still be of value if you want a high-growth EV pureplay.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":334801895,"gmtCreate":1610722828817,"gmtModify":1703746624374,"author":{"id":"3479297331378553","authorId":"3479297331378553","name":"期权哥哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479297331378553","authorIdStr":"3479297331378553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 几十万张今晚到期的期权,会不会狠杀?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 几十万张今晚到期的期权,会不会狠杀?","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 几十万张今晚到期的期权,会不会狠杀?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/334801895","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":338446177,"gmtCreate":1609950314799,"gmtModify":1703741637627,"author":{"id":"3479297331378553","authorId":"3479297331378553","name":"期权哥哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479297331378553","authorIdStr":"3479297331378553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a> 18.8震荡接近一个小时,骗走了我的筹码。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQ\">$爱奇艺(IQ)$</a> 18.8震荡接近一个小时,骗走了我的筹码。","text":"$爱奇艺(IQ)$ 18.8震荡接近一个小时,骗走了我的筹码。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/338446177","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2906,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":399074367,"gmtCreate":1605887505159,"gmtModify":1703840355738,"author":{"id":"3479297331378553","authorId":"3479297331378553","name":"期权哥哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479297331378553","authorIdStr":"3479297331378553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 周五开盘一个半小时,想走的应该都走差不多了吧。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 周五开盘一个半小时,想走的应该都走差不多了吧。","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 周五开盘一个半小时,想走的应该都走差不多了吧。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/399074367","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390296652,"gmtCreate":1605797332276,"gmtModify":1703839687090,"author":{"id":"3479297331378553","authorId":"3479297331378553","name":"期权哥哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479297331378553","authorIdStr":"3479297331378553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 开盘这一波高开下杀,赌财报的应该走了一半了吧。一会儿再杀一下估计能走光了。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BILI\">$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$</a> 开盘这一波高开下杀,赌财报的应该走了一半了吧。一会儿再杀一下估计能走光了。","text":"$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 开盘这一波高开下杀,赌财报的应该走了一半了吧。一会儿再杀一下估计能走光了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390296652","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1504,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390942476,"gmtCreate":1605705474395,"gmtModify":1703839094595,"author":{"id":"3479297331378553","authorId":"3479297331378553","name":"期权哥哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479297331378553","authorIdStr":"3479297331378553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">$晶科能源(JKS)$</a>其他太阳能票连续大涨,这票是财报前压盘吧","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JKS\">$晶科能源(JKS)$</a>其他太阳能票连续大涨,这票是财报前压盘吧","text":"$晶科能源(JKS)$其他太阳能票连续大涨,这票是财报前压盘吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390942476","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1959,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":302904636,"gmtCreate":1604504447625,"gmtModify":1703833527119,"author":{"id":"3479297331378553","authorId":"3479297331378553","name":"期权哥哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479297331378553","authorIdStr":"3479297331378553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 兄弟们,涨得太可怕了,我先走了避避风头,你们继续赚大钱。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 兄弟们,涨得太可怕了,我先走了避避风头,你们继续赚大钱。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 兄弟们,涨得太可怕了,我先走了避避风头,你们继续赚大钱。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/302904636","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2202,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":974664404,"gmtCreate":1601042410608,"gmtModify":1703823447854,"author":{"id":"3479297331378553","authorId":"3479297331378553","name":"期权哥哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479297331378553","authorIdStr":"3479297331378553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 每个周五都要杀半天的期权,太难了。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 每个周五都要杀半天的期权,太难了。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 每个周五都要杀半天的期权,太难了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/974664404","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2109,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":972317358,"gmtCreate":1600097226674,"gmtModify":1703820338424,"author":{"id":"3479297331378553","authorId":"3479297331378553","name":"期权哥哥","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3479297331378553","authorIdStr":"3479297331378553"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 大盘无虞,睡觉去。","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">$蔚来(NIO)$</a> 大盘无虞,睡觉去。","text":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 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关心蔚来的朋友都知道蔚来汽车最近订单爆发增长,新下订单很多要到明年2月提车,海南、南京、北京多地NIO House展车都被卖掉了,所谓的北京长草的ES8库存也都被卖差不多了。 昨天,蔚来股票不允许做空了,这个时间节点,今天突然来一个供应商来股吧,说蔚来订单下滑甚至没有订单,还逐一回复评论互动,动机可疑。 因为本身是汽车从业人员,多个朋友是是蔚来合肥供应商,说一下近期了解的蔚来的情况。 1、蔚来年初下的订单量很大,后来受自燃和负面评价影响,砍单了很多。但是蔚来给的价格很厚道,所以至今没有供应商催款打官司的情况出现。 2、蔚来进入四季度,尤其是11月份呢以后,订单爆发式增长,目前四季度三个月,两个供应商朋友接到的订单已经超过7000台,而且这几天还在追加了几百台,其中有1/6左右是ES8车型,由于二孩家庭的需求,ES8的7座车还是有很多人订的,明年应该不会停产。 3、蔚来目前每天平均新增订单150+,10月至11月20号的累计订单已经超过6000台,四季度订单量超10000台没有问题;但考虑到订单交付的平滑性,部分订单尤其是零部件供应紧张(核心供应商部分器件年底被奔驰、奥迪、宝马抢单)导致的后续订单放在明年1-2月生产,所以从今年10月份起,连续半年时间,蔚来应该都可以提供一条平滑向上的交付曲线。 4、蔚来的NIO Day会有新车型发布,但不会下沉到20万,20万及以下的车是广汽蔚来生产的“合创”品牌,最近已经在几个主流媒体平台预热了。 5、蔚来虽然存在砍单行为,但对供应商非常厚道,现在订单爆发增长,各大供应商追加订单的节点,突然有号称供应商的股友跑股吧里面来说蔚来没订单了,是何居心,大家自行判断吧。 附几张蔚来销售情况的图吧,找朋友核实了,都是真的,有疑问的可以自己去各地的NIO house 或者NIO space去核实。","listText":"$蔚来(NIO)$ 关心蔚来的朋友都知道蔚来汽车最近订单爆发增长,新下订单很多要到明年2月提车,海南、南京、北京多地NIO House展车都被卖掉了,所谓的北京长草的ES8库存也都被卖差不多了。 昨天,蔚来股票不允许做空了,这个时间节点,今天突然来一个供应商来股吧,说蔚来订单下滑甚至没有订单,还逐一回复评论互动,动机可疑。 因为本身是汽车从业人员,多个朋友是是蔚来合肥供应商,说一下近期了解的蔚来的情况。 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