Every Dog Has Its Day, Vice Versa~ 08.22.2018， Wed, Cloudy， Air polluted Summary：Trump's criticism of Fed boosted boosted risk in Asia and EU session with DXY weakened decently. Headlines of Cohen and Manafort hit the market and we can fade it. Euro Session: Most cash player didn't care too much about the 6 bps' rally of 10yr UST, totally not in the manner that people are talking about anyway. The rally was more about illiquidity than positioning in the previous US session. The Bloomberg screen was crowded with all kinds of guess on the rally, UST pulled back in 10yr yield to 2.83% throughout Tokyo．　   EGBs opened in a relieved way with the spread between core and periphery tightening while EU equities mixed. Euro bulls could cheer by price action over the past 18 hours or so, althoug

Boiling In Someone's Hot Air 08/13/2018, Mon , Cloudy, Air Perfect Summary：The bleeding Turkey finally dragged down global markets. Now we have two main themes now. Euro Session: In the early morning of most euro countries, USDTRY fell sharply again and successfully triggered a series of reactions. EUR fell sharply followed by GBP and AUD while JPY was relatively stable among G7. It was reported that ECB said concerned on BBVA(Spain), UniCredit(Italy) and BNP(France) as particularly exposed to Turkish lira plunge, which acted as the catalyst. The risk-of sentiment soon prevailed across Asia with most equity indexes fell into red. Then UST was boosted 3 bps higher from NY closed level. Turkey foreign liability is around 118bn, the mediocre level in the EM universe. BUT naturally the largest

Explained by 10Yr Yield 08/08/2018， Wed，Rainny， Air Polluted Summary：Another subdue summer session and the market even tired to re act to trade tension. Euro Session: Another slow grind summer session in Asia time. China daily reported that the government will carry out policy to stabilize investment growth and credit support, especially on infrastructure, to ease the concerns about the economy growth slowing down. A share finally rebounded after bleeding so many days. With the date of Sep 3rd impeding, we should take potential fund inflow into consideration. MSCI China A-Share Inclusion, which was first announced in June 2017, will take full effect on that day. Following the inclusion, 0.73% of the MSCI Emerging Market Index will be represented by China A-Share, which is expected to resul

Every Minute Counts 09.17.2018 Mon, Sunny, Air Perfect Summary：May的脱欧协议可能遭到工党强烈阻击，导致EUR和GBP 双双回调。美国经济数据良好，部分对冲Trump贸易言论的负面影响，美国风险资产收盘基本走平。 Euro Session: UST curve stayed almost unchanged in Tokyo session as TY held at 2.97%. Asia risks performed well led by TAIEX while A share struggled through and closed flat. The re-election as the LDP leader looks like a done deal when the latest jiji poll showed Abe's approval rate above his disapproval rate since Fed.   EU equities gapped higher and then in a firm tone while EGBs were under moderate pressure. Everything seemed good with no-one knew what was waiting ahead. Around 7:30, Labor shadow foreign secretary Thornberry told the FT that she does not think the Labor party will support Theresa May’s Brexit deal. She added that the PM would li

This Time is Really Different ! 09/10/2018, Mon, Sunny, Air Polluted Summary：欧美股市均因Trump贸易战言论收跌，而美债收益率则受超预期的AHE数据大幅上行。本周长端美债发行加速，周末税法关于美国公司加大养老金投资的条款过期，但警惕利率下行。 Euro Session: The surprising weakness of Germany July trade and IP punched down EUR and GBP at the moment Tokyo closed. Soon after that, EUR and GBP reversed losses and reached day-high, which astounded me quite a lot. EURUSD seemed to find itself in the middle of no man’s land once again, which resisted to any external incentives naturally.   During the early part of EU session, here came he news that EU is open to discussing other backstops to withdrawal agreement helped GBP to gain territory. It seems that the UK and EU will attempt to get agreement on the Withdrawal Agreement even if the goal for a deal having slipped to N

Don't You Scare ？ 08/15/2018，Wed，Sunny， Air Perfect Summary：Market recovered from Turkey shcok and spoiled by Italy issue again. Another easing is on the horizon. Euro Session: Duration dipped lower across the curve with very thin volume while Asia equities mixed, Nikkei 2.22%, Heng Seng and CSI300 in red.   Almost at the moment EU session stepped in, USDTRY slumped which looked like profit taking. The sentiment obviously improved anyway. Both EUR and GBP were boosted by the stronger GE Q2 GDP. German economy expanded by 0.5% in 2Q, accelerating from 0.4% in Q1, coupled with a small upward revision to Q1 growth   EU equities gapped higher and cores were under pressure while periphery were boosted. Lira went on surging as local retail accounts were reported to sell dollars. Even G

Could Fed be Compromised ? 08/21/2018.Tue, Sunny, Air Polluted Summary：Market recovered from trade tension and take Trump's words in a decently serious way at least in UST market. Euro Session: A share spent most of the session in a weak tone until the report that CSRC called strategists from security companies to review the present market, with the leading of blue chips, CSI finally close in positive territory. Around 4 o'clock in the afternoon, there came the report that China state funds, or the so-called national team, said to buy blue-chip stocks to stabilize market! "Guojiadui" did catch the market off guard this time.     After EU session stepped in, most EU equities edged higher while EGBs almost flat. BTP spreads volatility had continued to weigh on FTSE MIB performance

Spoiled Child   09.19.2018 Wed， Cloudy， Air Perfect Summary：欧洲资产在A50峰会前有所调整，但May传递的乐观信息提振了EUR和GBP。美债遭到持续抛售，美股则在纳指带动下小幅反弹。贸易紧张还有拯救的可能，毕竟这一阶段开始双方都要感到疼了。 Euro Session: Treasure **res jumped on 200bn news but soon after A share opened, Asia market shrugged off the negative impact. USDCNH retreated half of the early gains coupled with DXY while ADXY even drifted lower. As the market waiting for the statement from DOC, it was reported that HE was on a special meeting engaged on tariffs. I do hope they have preliminary arrangement. A share rallied strongly in the late session while news said that China will boost infrastructure investment against the tariff.   TY traded a touch higher than 3% when EU session stepped in. EGBs opened flat except BTP declined as Di Maio clashed with Tria o

  09.13.2018 Wed, Sunny, Air Polluted Summary：意大利和欧元区工业产值数据不佳一度导致欧元和英镑反弹夭折，但是欧盟再次对英国脱欧协议让步使得欧洲资产再次上涨。美国有意重启贸易谈判的消息使得美国资产获得支撑。美元则有所走弱，但美债缩量新发引起抢购，而似乎欧洲的大问题要来了。 Euro Session: Asia markets traded heavily with A share down for the 6th straight session, $Asia on the defensive, while UST yields held at 2.97%. Trade uncertainty continues to weigh on the regional outlook with report that US and Japan could resume trade talk on Sep 21 after Abe addressed he shall try to visit China in October on trade issues. In my gut, Japan is likely to accede to a free-trade agreement with US since its king's living place is within the 5 minutes range of F35.   EU equities opened in green following their US counterparts while EGBs mixed. It's supposed to be relatively quiet session since no tier-1 data

Shall We Face the Music ？ 09.12.2018 Wed, Cloudy, Air Perfect Summary：尽管欧洲次重量级经济数据超预期，但市场开始关注欧洲基本面的不确定性，欧洲资产纷纷见顶。美国股市摆脱贸易战阴影，有所走强。美欧、美加贸易谈判出现转机，导致美元轻微走弱。 Euro Session: Asian assets mixed as investors await trade clarity. Regional bourses fluctuate except Japan equities outperform(1.3%) as JPY weakens while A share saw a choppy session after struggling to close touch lower. Trade tension between US and Japan intoxicated somewhat while one Japan official say Japan does not need FTA with US.   EU market enjoyed risk-on for another session. EU equities opened flat while the spread between core and periphery tightened. As to FX, Sterling advanced with EUR, adding to Monday’s surge, after European Union’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said it’s “realistic” to get a Brexit deal within eigh

Watch the Hour Tick by 09/10/2018, Moni, Sunny, Air Perfect Summary：贸易战阴影拖累欧美股市，日元受益大涨，各主要国家利率受压。本周美国HY ETF大量资金流出，下周美国国债新发，市场关注贸易问题后续发展以及地中海态势发展。 Euro Session: EM turmoil moderated across most of Asia. USTs little changed from New York Closed levels. Range was only as tight as 3 tick with cash 10s holding around 2.90% for another day. Asian bourses followed US Counterparts lower as EM stress continues with A share got pretty nervous about the possibility of the 25% tariff on 200bn goods with strong intent to test the recent low in Aug.   Both EU equities and EGBS opened flat except BTP was under strong purchasing power. The pause of EM bleeding did boosted the sentiment with the market taking no news as good news as to Italy. Both EUR and GBP performed resiliently to a decent extent.

Pricing Next Weekend from by this One 08.31.2018， Fri， Sunny， Air Perfect Summary：贸易紧张和意大利预算以及评级更新问题掌控欧美市场，土耳其阿根廷继续遭受冲击.乏闷得夏季交易时间就要结束了! Euro Session: Another slow summer Asia session after the carnival in previous US time while A share plummeted again. With the impeding of Sep 5th, the probability of 25% tariff on 200bn exports could be the main factor. Beyond that, we could see the hike by the end of next month which was already priced 100% via OIS means.   EU equities opened weak and EGBs in bid tone. The headlines of Fitch due to review Italy's rating today hit the tape, shadowing the market. Fitch says measures planned by the new Italian government on taxes, basic income and pensions for 2019 may cost as much as EU75 billion yearly.   Italian auctions (5y and 10y as well as C

Hurts Makes Progess 08/20/2018，Mon， Sunny， Air Perfect Summary：Potential trade easing boosted the market. Let's reading papers releasing from Jackson Hole! Euro Session: Asia time saw A share a poor session mainly dragged down by the medicine sectors while the warm tone swiped through Chinese name USD bonds with frequently "lift' on Bloomberg screen. An ex-commissioner of BOJ said the rang of 10yr JGB could be allowed to +-0.4%, which was shrugged off by the market easily. Based on their sneaky style, BOJ could taper its JGB purchase subject to the constraint that Yen does not appreciate rather than a further widening of the acceptable range.   EU equities opened mixed as the same as EGBs. After being boosted somewhat by the stronger EU current account balance, EUR and GBP continued t