DDA的个人主页 - 老虎社区

DDA

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IP属地：北京

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2主题

0勋章

2020-05-12

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$，佩服我自己

2020-05-05

$跟谁学(GSX)$短线技术图形KDJ RSI 死叉看多和看空自己选吧

2020-05-04

$跟谁学(GSX)$，炒股是来挣钱的，只要挣钱就行，无所谓，做空还是做多。看图形判断

2020-04-28

$跟谁学(GSX)$先疯狂，后死亡

2020-05-13

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$高兴[666] [看涨]

2019-02-28

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$ 吓死人的节奏，中国操盘手吧

2020-05-11

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$成功做了第二波

2019-03-02

$哔哩哔哩(BILI)$主力一定是CHN吧，跌倒20日线就反弹啊，太会玩了啊

2020-05-13

$美第奇新星生物技术(MNOV)$会大涨吗？[开心] [开心]

2020-05-12

$诺瓦瓦克斯医药(NVAX)$厉害了我的哥

2020-01-15

$Tilray Inc.(TLRY)$ 昨天进的这只股，有点小兴奋

2022-01-07

说说你对这篇新闻的看法...

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-05-01

$跟谁学(GSX)$空头来袭

2020-04-30

$跟谁学(GSX)$ 空起来

2020-04-28

烧钱的游戏，最终有钱花光的那一天。没有任何技术科技含量

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-01-15

昨天卖了Beyond meat. 买这它$Build-A-Bear Workshop(BBW)$

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000671\">阳光城</a>等均呈不同程度上涨。</p><p>地产ETF（159707）放量劲升超4.3％，价格再创新高！开盘1小时<span>换手率</span>超17％。</p><p>消息面上，据财联社报道，目前银行已告知一些大型优质房企，针对出险企业项目的承债式收购，相关并购贷款不再计入“三条红线”相关指标。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>发布最新研报称，继续看好A股地产龙头公司。A股地产龙头公司，既不存在股权融资的可能，又确实受益于较为稳固的盈利能力和市场份额的小幅提升。</p><p>公开数据显示，地产ETF（159707）为目前全市场唯一跟踪中证800地产指数（399965）的行业<span>ETF</span>，成份股共32只，前十大成份股权重近7成，保利发展、万科A、招商蛇口三大央企地产龙头占比近4成。</p><img src=\"http://inews.gtimg.com/newsapp_match/0/14394169137/0\"/></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>地产股全线爆发！万科A、保利地产放量涨5％，地产ETF（159707）涨超4％</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n地产股全线爆发！万科A、保利地产放量涨5％，地产ETF（159707）涨超4％\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-07 10:52 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202201071054517a1fee6e&s=b><strong>金融界</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>来源：金融界金融界1月7日消息，今日早盘，A股地产板块全线大涨，中证800地产指数涨超4％。龙头万科A涨超5％，保利发展、招商蛇口分别涨超4％、6％，蓝光发展一度涨停，华侨城A、新城控股、阳光城等均呈不同程度上涨。地产ETF（159707）放量劲升超4.3％，价格再创新高！开盘1小时换手率超17％。消息面上，据财联社报道，目前银行已告知一些大型优质房企，针对出险企业项目的承债式收购，相关并购贷款...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202201071054517a1fee6e&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b5d60c72c5bab028f3d7d10da10eef2","relate_stocks":{"159707":"地产ETF","02202":"万科企业","000002":"万科A"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202201071054517a1fee6e&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2201229784","content_text":"来源：金融界金融界1月7日消息，今日早盘，A股地产板块全线大涨，中证800地产指数涨超4％。龙头万科A涨超5％，保利发展、招商蛇口分别涨超4％、6％，蓝光发展一度涨停，华侨城A、新城控股、阳光城等均呈不同程度上涨。地产ETF（159707）放量劲升超4.3％，价格再创新高！开盘1小时换手率超17％。消息面上，据财联社报道，目前银行已告知一些大型优质房企，针对出险企业项目的承债式收购，相关并购贷款不再计入“三条红线”相关指标。中信证券发布最新研报称，继续看好A股地产龙头公司。A股地产龙头公司，既不存在股权融资的可能，又确实受益于较为稳固的盈利能力和市场份额的小幅提升。公开数据显示，地产ETF（159707）为目前全市场唯一跟踪中证800地产指数（399965）的行业ETF，成份股共32只，前十大成份股权重近7成，保利发展、万科A、招商蛇口三大央企地产龙头占比近4成。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":950806791,"gmtCreate":1589300356513,"gmtModify":1704179831192,"author":{"id":"3479200054322694","authorId":"3479200054322694","name":"DDA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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22:49","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"在线教育，不能变成资本的游戏","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187608145","media":" 信口说","summary":"在线教育鏖战至今，战况逐渐胶着。双师模式聚集了越来越多的头部机构，学而思网校、猿辅导、跟谁学、作业帮、新东方在线都虎视眈眈。双师让少数名师资源能够突破空间的限制，触达更多的学生，辅导老师又能保持和学生","content":"<p>在线教育鏖战至今，战况逐渐胶着。</p><p>双师模式聚集了越来越多的头部机构，学而思网校、猿辅导、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSX\">跟谁学</a>、作业帮、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01797\">新东方在线</a>都虎视眈眈。双师让少数名师资源能够突破空间的限制，触达更多的学生，辅导老师又能保持和学生的深度沟通，强化体验，不论大班还是小班，都是在提高名师的生产力。</p><p>1对1的模式也逐渐成熟。强互动、高效率的授课形式，在教学体验和口碑上更有保障，头部机构在改善运营和提升效率后，正走向盈利的良性循环。</p><p>猿辅导10亿美元的融资，在经济寒冬中格外耀眼；跟谁学的百亿市值和做空质疑，吸引了全社会的关注；传统巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TAL\">好未来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">新东方</a>，略输风采，却也在收获着在线教育的机遇。</p><p>疫情加速了在线教育行业的演变进程，也带来了更多虎视眈眈的跨界者。字节跳动来势汹汹，张一鸣亲自发全员信，宣告进军教育的决心，超万人的招聘规模，笼络了多家教育机构的人才。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>课堂作为工具，意外截流了大量学生，自营的中小学网校“企鹅辅导”也已悄悄布局。</p><p>暑期未至，明星代言、朋友圈广告已然铺天盖地。</p><p>各地复课在即，大量被迫进行网课的学生，即将冲出在线教育机构的围猎，免费送课、低价引流之后，留存多少，尚未可知。</p><p>在单纯追求规模增长的惨烈竞争后，用户更加在意教学效果，机构纯粹的烧钱获客已经难以为继，需要开始考虑实现盈利的可持续发展。</p><p>新一轮的挑战即将来临。</p><p><b>01&nbsp;</b><b><span>烧钱模式何时休</span></b></p><p>互联网人进入教育行业后，将烧钱扩张的模式带入了在线教育。</p><p>于是，我们看到2019年暑期，K12在线教育的营销战全面爆发。高峰期“三大金主”（学而思、猿辅导、作业帮）每一天的广告投放，超过1000万人民币，整场大战的线上线下营销费用至少在50亿元。一时间，公交站牌、写字楼、地铁、微信朋友圈、各大信息流平台、搜索平台等，处处可见在线教育的招生广告。久违的互联网大战，重现于在线教育，烧钱至今，已无退路。</p><p>各大综艺节目、网剧和春晚中，也开始涌现在线教育企业的身影。VIPkid和gogokid争相冠名《爸爸去哪儿》、哒哒英语冠名《极限挑战》、51 Talk入驻《中餐厅》、猿辅导选择《最强大脑》，而随着猿辅导财大气粗露脸2020年春晚，将这一场竞争引入胶着之战。其实已经分不清教育娱乐化，还是娱乐教育化。</p><p>明星们也被拉入在线教育公司的阵营。4月15日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTES\">网易</a>有道宣布与中国女排总教练郎平签约，邀请郎平成为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAO\">有道</a>精品课品牌代言人，这是郎平首次为教育机构代言。紧接着17日，“作业帮”也宣布与中国国家女子排球队达成战略合作，成为中国女排在教育领域全球独家代言合作伙伴，简直和网易有道针锋相对。</p><p>在线教育的竞争，好像变成了一场营销大战下的烧钱游戏。</p><p>各家比拼的是谁做的广告多，谁的营销更广泛，谁的代言人更有知名度。这一切指向的是用户规模，在线教育企业的发展诉求，变成了用户规模的增长，而不是教育本身的教学效果和用户满意度。只要把用户规模做起来，就能进行融资，融完资就可以继续烧钱获取用户，然后继续融资-烧钱-用户增长的游戏。</p><p>盈利似乎并不在现阶段的考虑范围，几乎所有人都在讲互联网垄断的故事：只要我有用户、有流量，未来实现寡头和垄断的时候，就有定价权，就能挣钱。至于未来能不能垄断、能不能挣钱，谁知道呢？只要这个游戏还能够持续下去，仿佛就没人在乎盈利。</p><p>但是，这样真的对吗？</p><p><b>02&nbsp;</b><b><span>高速增长的代价</span></b></p><p>在线教育行业，出现普遍性亏损的原因是什么呢？</p><p>高额的营销费用是主要原因之一。从典型的在线教育上市公司的数据中，我们可以看到，销售费用是第一大成本项，基本占到收入的一半。而相比线下培训机构，销售费用的占比都在20%以内，这是线上机构和线下机构成本结构里最大的区别。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/854d24766436a9ff706c499c39898264\">在线教育通过各类广告营销占据用户心智、建立品牌的说法，也需要推敲。教育企业的品牌最终必须来自于口碑，来自于实实在在的教学效果，洗脑式的广告营销并不能带来真正的品牌。如果我们从另一个角度考虑，在线教育企业的营销其实是被迫无奈，因为在线教育没有线下教育的实体点，也就没有了精准销售的场景，线下机构依托周边人群、扫楼式的发传单其实是比较高效的获客方式，而在线教育机构必须依赖广告和线上的销售。</p><p>另外，由于在同等条件下，在线教育的体验和效果要弱于线下，课单价较低就成为了在线教育抢占线下市场的代价。从头部K12在线教育公司的官网中，可以看到单小时的课程价格，除了跟谁学的价格较高，其他的平均在20-50元。而同等情况下的线下班，价格普遍在150-200元，线上课程的单价只有线下课程的1/10到1/3 ！这巨大的价格差，也在很大程度上影响了在线教育公司的盈利模型。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee49aaf72b8349bd639777e6f90a7d82\"></p><p>免费课和低价课引流的销售策略，实际上也将机构的运营成本拉高，加重了盈利的困难。2011年，新东方的优能中学以“免费班”的形式向全北京市的小学毕业生开放，原价学费近2000元的班级只象征性地收50元资料费，引流后带来400人报正价班，并保持持续增长，一举打破北京K12市场格局。之后，“免费课”和“低价课”的引流策略就在线教育的竞争中，被广泛使用。以新东方在线为例，2020财年上半年的正价课均价1022元/人次，而引流的入门级课程均价仅24元/人次，低价引流课程将整体的课程均价拉低到425元/人次，也就是说有60%的付费学生其实是选择的入门级低价课。这也导致新东方在线的亏损幅度被进一步扩大。当所有人陷入免费课的竞争，这又成为了不得不做的选择。</p><p>高营销、低单价，是在线教育机构不盈利的重要原因。</p><p>当然，高营销、低单价的行业性共同选择，是源于在线教育相比于线下的巨大想象力：突破空间限制的扩张力和寡头垄断的可能性。</p><p>谁都不能拒绝这种极具诱惑的未来。</p><p><b>03&nbsp;</b><b><span>从商业原点破解盈利</span></b></p><p>从商业的本质看，一切不盈利的商业模式，都是耍流氓。</p><p>在线教育，最终也是需要实现盈利的，融资不可能无止境，也只有盈利了，商业行为才能持续下去。如果分析利润的产生，可以简单将在线教育的盈利拆解为以下公式，其中获客和师资成本近似为可变成本，即与学生数成正相关，研发和管理近似为固定成本。回归商业的本质，就必须从这最基本的要素去考虑。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bccaf7f829adb39d8d499458b4da3094\"></p><p>从上面的分析可以得知，目前在线教育的行业性普遍亏损，主要是客单价低，同时获客成本过高，导致整个公式的营业利润为负，破解在线教育的盈利困境，也需要从这里着手。核心需要考虑的是单价、获客成本、师资成本和学生数，这四个因素。</p><p>目前多数K12的在线教育公司选择的是双师模式，不论大班或者小班，主要是通过学生规模的扩张，降低生均师资成本，同时降低研发和管理的边际成本。但是要注意，这里降低的师资成本是授课老师，双师模式下还需要辅导老师，如果考虑辅导老师，整体的生均师资成本并不一定能降低。而课单价低和获客成本高，几乎抵消了学生数增长带来的规模效应。行业里都在说大班、小班双师模式有规模效应，但仔细想想，规模效应只是实现盈利的一环，如果单价和获客成本的问题不能解决，规模效应只会成为自我安慰和自欺欺人的陷阱。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf5651c2a95fc53ac68a1807c94852b7\"></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b92923732c3dc6e9d8cfd940a6673ed\"></p><p>获客成本的降低需要精准化营销的效率提高，体现于品牌口碑带来的续费率和转化率提升。前期的营销烧钱获客没问题，但烧钱的结果必须转化为用户对品牌的认知，进而带来二次消费、三次消费，商业模式才能够持续，这样的烧钱才有意义。但如果用户的付费意愿需要依赖于持续的烧钱补贴，这种用钱烧出来的需求并不是真正的需求，所以像销售费用占收入的比例超过90%，这种商业模式就不应该存在（我说的是瑞幸，你们不要误解）。</p><p>看似已经被行业忽视的在线1对1模式，是不是真的已经走入盈利的绝境呢？</p><p>虽然我旗帜鲜明的反对英语的在线1对1模式，但在线1对1并不全是无解的。英语在线1对1的问题在于，聚焦低龄段的英语教学，难以带来有效的续费，这就导致获客成本居高不下。但如果将在线1对1用于K12领域的全科培训，小学+中学有12年的用户消费时间，而且从数学到英语、语文、理化生等等，还有扩科的空间，如果能做到用户的扩科和续费，实际就可以降低获客成本，这是区别于英语在线1对1 的重要特点。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0f8e31610f61e07d344493cacdfca129\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf5651c2a95fc53ac68a1807c94852b7\"></p><p>而且，在线1对1相比双师，可以有效实现师生间的互动、监督和引导，从而带来高单价。线上1对多的教学方式，无论是否有辅导老师，都极大地损失了授课老师和学生的互动，授课老师的注意力从学生及时的反馈转向了PPT，很难照顾到每个学生的状态。而在线1对1的方式，很大程度地还原了线下老师与学生互动的场景，即使通过摄像头，也能达到互相沟通的状态，这对于学习效果的提升是极其重要的。</p><p>随着在线1对1头部的机构进入精细化运营阶段，管理和运营体系的不断完善，成本结构也随之优化。所以，K12全科的在线1对1也可以通过提高课单价和降低获客成本的方式，实现盈利。</p><p><b>04&nbsp;</b><b><span>资本博弈下的教育走向何方</span></b></p><p>资本过剩和互联网变革推动着过去几年的投资圈过度追求用户规模，大家都在鼓励用户和收入规模的增长，而不注重经济模型。这样的倾向又会刺激创业者追求规模增长，在融资弹药的支持下继续招兵买马扩张规模。</p><p>但这一做法，越来越受到市场的质疑。ofo 本来只是起源于校园的公益项目，在资本的助推下迅速掀起全国战场，短短2年间走完了过山车式的命运，留下超10亿的用户押金无法退还。一个明显无法盈利的商业模式，被狂热的资本推向巅峰，这是谁的过错？</p><p>2015年教育O2O的败局仿佛就在昨天，高峰期700多家的家教O2O平台融资数十亿，无一幸免。而当前在线教育的烧钱游戏，正通过持续的融资和用户的预收费维持着，多数公司的盈利看起来遥遥无期，这同样是极不正常的商业模式。</p><p>教育，不能演变成一场资本的游戏。</p><p>因为这场游戏不会像ofo、瑞幸的垮台，对普通人的生活并没有多大直接的影响，几十亿社会财富烧为灰烬后，大家只是吃瓜看戏。教育一旦沦为资本的游戏，将会对成千上万的家庭、正在形成世界观的学生造成难以挽回的影响。</p><p>既然是商业行为，就应该走到盈利的正轨上。在线教育的模式，大班双师、小班双师、1对1本无优劣，只有不同模式下的权衡取舍，每一种模式都有实现盈利的可能，只是当前的恶性竞争和资本贪念，将用户增长当成了最终的目标，舍弃了盈利的能力。而只有盈利，商业行为才能够可持续发展。</p><p>既然是教育行业，就要为教学效果和用户负责，而不仅仅是为资本负责。教育的初心一定是服务于学生，给学生带来价值，这价值的核心在于学习效果和学习效率的提高。而任何仅仅依靠烧钱补贴、低价获取用户的模式，是难以给用户带来真正意义上的价值的。</p><p>教育企业的持久发展，不能依靠融资，而应该依靠用户的续费，更何况教育企业独有的预收款，本身就是一种零成本的融资。教育企业的考核要素，第一应该是续费率，其次才应该是用户增长。取之于用户，用之于用户，这才是正确的发展方式。资本从来只是企业发展的工具，而不能反客为主。</p><p>产业为本，金融为器。回归初心，做好教育。</p><p>这是每一个躬身入局的人的责任。</p>","source":"lsy1588085620930","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>在线教育，不能变成资本的游戏</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n在线教育，不能变成资本的游戏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-04-28 22:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kEGvZKbPim92N0bvok32Bw><strong> 信口说</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>在线教育鏖战至今，战况逐渐胶着。双师模式聚集了越来越多的头部机构，学而思网校、猿辅导、跟谁学、作业帮、新东方在线都虎视眈眈。双师让少数名师资源能够突破空间的限制，触达更多的学生，辅导老师又能保持和学生的深度沟通，强化体验，不论大班还是小班，都是在提高名师的生产力。1对1的模式也逐渐成熟。强互动、高效率的授课形式，在教学体验和口碑上更有保障，头部机构在改善运营和提升效率后，正走向盈利的良性循环。猿...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kEGvZKbPim92N0bvok32Bw\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0459380bed5b48bf9e4c588e38b3e0a1","relate_stocks":{"EDU":"新东方"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/kEGvZKbPim92N0bvok32Bw","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187608145","content_text":"在线教育鏖战至今，战况逐渐胶着。双师模式聚集了越来越多的头部机构，学而思网校、猿辅导、跟谁学、作业帮、新东方在线都虎视眈眈。双师让少数名师资源能够突破空间的限制，触达更多的学生，辅导老师又能保持和学生的深度沟通，强化体验，不论大班还是小班，都是在提高名师的生产力。1对1的模式也逐渐成熟。强互动、高效率的授课形式，在教学体验和口碑上更有保障，头部机构在改善运营和提升效率后，正走向盈利的良性循环。猿辅导10亿美元的融资，在经济寒冬中格外耀眼；跟谁学的百亿市值和做空质疑，吸引了全社会的关注；传统巨头好未来和新东方，略输风采，却也在收获着在线教育的机遇。疫情加速了在线教育行业的演变进程，也带来了更多虎视眈眈的跨界者。字节跳动来势汹汹，张一鸣亲自发全员信，宣告进军教育的决心，超万人的招聘规模，笼络了多家教育机构的人才。腾讯课堂作为工具，意外截流了大量学生，自营的中小学网校“企鹅辅导”也已悄悄布局。暑期未至，明星代言、朋友圈广告已然铺天盖地。各地复课在即，大量被迫进行网课的学生，即将冲出在线教育机构的围猎，免费送课、低价引流之后，留存多少，尚未可知。在单纯追求规模增长的惨烈竞争后，用户更加在意教学效果，机构纯粹的烧钱获客已经难以为继，需要开始考虑实现盈利的可持续发展。新一轮的挑战即将来临。01 烧钱模式何时休互联网人进入教育行业后，将烧钱扩张的模式带入了在线教育。于是，我们看到2019年暑期，K12在线教育的营销战全面爆发。高峰期“三大金主”（学而思、猿辅导、作业帮）每一天的广告投放，超过1000万人民币，整场大战的线上线下营销费用至少在50亿元。一时间，公交站牌、写字楼、地铁、微信朋友圈、各大信息流平台、搜索平台等，处处可见在线教育的招生广告。久违的互联网大战，重现于在线教育，烧钱至今，已无退路。各大综艺节目、网剧和春晚中，也开始涌现在线教育企业的身影。VIPkid和gogokid争相冠名《爸爸去哪儿》、哒哒英语冠名《极限挑战》、51 Talk入驻《中餐厅》、猿辅导选择《最强大脑》，而随着猿辅导财大气粗露脸2020年春晚，将这一场竞争引入胶着之战。其实已经分不清教育娱乐化，还是娱乐教育化。明星们也被拉入在线教育公司的阵营。4月15日，网易有道宣布与中国女排总教练郎平签约，邀请郎平成为有道精品课品牌代言人，这是郎平首次为教育机构代言。紧接着17日，“作业帮”也宣布与中国国家女子排球队达成战略合作，成为中国女排在教育领域全球独家代言合作伙伴，简直和网易有道针锋相对。在线教育的竞争，好像变成了一场营销大战下的烧钱游戏。各家比拼的是谁做的广告多，谁的营销更广泛，谁的代言人更有知名度。这一切指向的是用户规模，在线教育企业的发展诉求，变成了用户规模的增长，而不是教育本身的教学效果和用户满意度。只要把用户规模做起来，就能进行融资，融完资就可以继续烧钱获取用户，然后继续融资-烧钱-用户增长的游戏。盈利似乎并不在现阶段的考虑范围，几乎所有人都在讲互联网垄断的故事：只要我有用户、有流量，未来实现寡头和垄断的时候，就有定价权，就能挣钱。至于未来能不能垄断、能不能挣钱，谁知道呢？只要这个游戏还能够持续下去，仿佛就没人在乎盈利。但是，这样真的对吗？02 高速增长的代价在线教育行业，出现普遍性亏损的原因是什么呢？高额的营销费用是主要原因之一。从典型的在线教育上市公司的数据中，我们可以看到，销售费用是第一大成本项，基本占到收入的一半。而相比线下培训机构，销售费用的占比都在20%以内，这是线上机构和线下机构成本结构里最大的区别。在线教育通过各类广告营销占据用户心智、建立品牌的说法，也需要推敲。教育企业的品牌最终必须来自于口碑，来自于实实在在的教学效果，洗脑式的广告营销并不能带来真正的品牌。如果我们从另一个角度考虑，在线教育企业的营销其实是被迫无奈，因为在线教育没有线下教育的实体点，也就没有了精准销售的场景，线下机构依托周边人群、扫楼式的发传单其实是比较高效的获客方式，而在线教育机构必须依赖广告和线上的销售。另外，由于在同等条件下，在线教育的体验和效果要弱于线下，课单价较低就成为了在线教育抢占线下市场的代价。从头部K12在线教育公司的官网中，可以看到单小时的课程价格，除了跟谁学的价格较高，其他的平均在20-50元。而同等情况下的线下班，价格普遍在150-200元，线上课程的单价只有线下课程的1/10到1/3 ！这巨大的价格差，也在很大程度上影响了在线教育公司的盈利模型。免费课和低价课引流的销售策略，实际上也将机构的运营成本拉高，加重了盈利的困难。2011年，新东方的优能中学以“免费班”的形式向全北京市的小学毕业生开放，原价学费近2000元的班级只象征性地收50元资料费，引流后带来400人报正价班，并保持持续增长，一举打破北京K12市场格局。之后，“免费课”和“低价课”的引流策略就在线教育的竞争中，被广泛使用。以新东方在线为例，2020财年上半年的正价课均价1022元/人次，而引流的入门级课程均价仅24元/人次，低价引流课程将整体的课程均价拉低到425元/人次，也就是说有60%的付费学生其实是选择的入门级低价课。这也导致新东方在线的亏损幅度被进一步扩大。当所有人陷入免费课的竞争，这又成为了不得不做的选择。高营销、低单价，是在线教育机构不盈利的重要原因。当然，高营销、低单价的行业性共同选择，是源于在线教育相比于线下的巨大想象力：突破空间限制的扩张力和寡头垄断的可能性。谁都不能拒绝这种极具诱惑的未来。03 从商业原点破解盈利从商业的本质看，一切不盈利的商业模式，都是耍流氓。在线教育，最终也是需要实现盈利的，融资不可能无止境，也只有盈利了，商业行为才能持续下去。如果分析利润的产生，可以简单将在线教育的盈利拆解为以下公式，其中获客和师资成本近似为可变成本，即与学生数成正相关，研发和管理近似为固定成本。回归商业的本质，就必须从这最基本的要素去考虑。从上面的分析可以得知，目前在线教育的行业性普遍亏损，主要是客单价低，同时获客成本过高，导致整个公式的营业利润为负，破解在线教育的盈利困境，也需要从这里着手。核心需要考虑的是单价、获客成本、师资成本和学生数，这四个因素。目前多数K12的在线教育公司选择的是双师模式，不论大班或者小班，主要是通过学生规模的扩张，降低生均师资成本，同时降低研发和管理的边际成本。但是要注意，这里降低的师资成本是授课老师，双师模式下还需要辅导老师，如果考虑辅导老师，整体的生均师资成本并不一定能降低。而课单价低和获客成本高，几乎抵消了学生数增长带来的规模效应。行业里都在说大班、小班双师模式有规模效应，但仔细想想，规模效应只是实现盈利的一环，如果单价和获客成本的问题不能解决，规模效应只会成为自我安慰和自欺欺人的陷阱。获客成本的降低需要精准化营销的效率提高，体现于品牌口碑带来的续费率和转化率提升。前期的营销烧钱获客没问题，但烧钱的结果必须转化为用户对品牌的认知，进而带来二次消费、三次消费，商业模式才能够持续，这样的烧钱才有意义。但如果用户的付费意愿需要依赖于持续的烧钱补贴，这种用钱烧出来的需求并不是真正的需求，所以像销售费用占收入的比例超过90%，这种商业模式就不应该存在（我说的是瑞幸，你们不要误解）。看似已经被行业忽视的在线1对1模式，是不是真的已经走入盈利的绝境呢？虽然我旗帜鲜明的反对英语的在线1对1模式，但在线1对1并不全是无解的。英语在线1对1的问题在于，聚焦低龄段的英语教学，难以带来有效的续费，这就导致获客成本居高不下。但如果将在线1对1用于K12领域的全科培训，小学+中学有12年的用户消费时间，而且从数学到英语、语文、理化生等等，还有扩科的空间，如果能做到用户的扩科和续费，实际就可以降低获客成本，这是区别于英语在线1对1 的重要特点。而且，在线1对1相比双师，可以有效实现师生间的互动、监督和引导，从而带来高单价。线上1对多的教学方式，无论是否有辅导老师，都极大地损失了授课老师和学生的互动，授课老师的注意力从学生及时的反馈转向了PPT，很难照顾到每个学生的状态。而在线1对1的方式，很大程度地还原了线下老师与学生互动的场景，即使通过摄像头，也能达到互相沟通的状态，这对于学习效果的提升是极其重要的。随着在线1对1头部的机构进入精细化运营阶段，管理和运营体系的不断完善，成本结构也随之优化。所以，K12全科的在线1对1也可以通过提高课单价和降低获客成本的方式，实现盈利。04 资本博弈下的教育走向何方资本过剩和互联网变革推动着过去几年的投资圈过度追求用户规模，大家都在鼓励用户和收入规模的增长，而不注重经济模型。这样的倾向又会刺激创业者追求规模增长，在融资弹药的支持下继续招兵买马扩张规模。但这一做法，越来越受到市场的质疑。ofo 本来只是起源于校园的公益项目，在资本的助推下迅速掀起全国战场，短短2年间走完了过山车式的命运，留下超10亿的用户押金无法退还。一个明显无法盈利的商业模式，被狂热的资本推向巅峰，这是谁的过错？2015年教育O2O的败局仿佛就在昨天，高峰期700多家的家教O2O平台融资数十亿，无一幸免。而当前在线教育的烧钱游戏，正通过持续的融资和用户的预收费维持着，多数公司的盈利看起来遥遥无期，这同样是极不正常的商业模式。教育，不能演变成一场资本的游戏。因为这场游戏不会像ofo、瑞幸的垮台，对普通人的生活并没有多大直接的影响，几十亿社会财富烧为灰烬后，大家只是吃瓜看戏。教育一旦沦为资本的游戏，将会对成千上万的家庭、正在形成世界观的学生造成难以挽回的影响。既然是商业行为，就应该走到盈利的正轨上。在线教育的模式，大班双师、小班双师、1对1本无优劣，只有不同模式下的权衡取舍，每一种模式都有实现盈利的可能，只是当前的恶性竞争和资本贪念，将用户增长当成了最终的目标，舍弃了盈利的能力。而只有盈利，商业行为才能够可持续发展。既然是教育行业，就要为教学效果和用户负责，而不仅仅是为资本负责。教育的初心一定是服务于学生，给学生带来价值，这价值的核心在于学习效果和学习效率的提高。而任何仅仅依靠烧钱补贴、低价获取用户的模式，是难以给用户带来真正意义上的价值的。教育企业的持久发展，不能依靠融资，而应该依靠用户的续费，更何况教育企业独有的预收款，本身就是一种零成本的融资。教育企业的考核要素，第一应该是续费率，其次才应该是用户增长。取之于用户，用之于用户，这才是正确的发展方式。资本从来只是企业发展的工具，而不能反客为主。产业为本，金融为器。回归初心，做好教育。这是每一个躬身入局的人的责任。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":486,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":925573615,"gmtCreate":1588083637037,"gmtModify":1704366360999,"author":{"id":"3479200054322694","authorId":"3479200054322694","name":"DDA","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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