夏悟的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-02-16

$复星旅游文化(01992)$稳

2021-02-10

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$兄弟们感觉火箭会不会有点太快🚀，不适应阿，慢点飞更好更远更高[笑哭] [笑哭]

2021-02-10

$Sundial Growers Inc.(SNDL)$兄弟们666

2020-08-24

有没有机会[财迷]

寻找10倍股：解码下一个“立讯精密”

2020-07-15

$微美全息(WIMI)$666，有没有坚持住，没被甩下车的老铁呀

2020-07-12

$微美全息(WIMI)$第一次幸运

2020-04-21

$WTI原油2005(CL2005)$不是很懂，只知道油比水便宜，这对整体经济影响有多大呢？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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Inc.(SNDL)$兄弟们666","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/383418437","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":979672409,"gmtCreate":1598251243701,"gmtModify":1704218045023,"author":{"id":"3475558392966132","authorId":"3475558392966132","name":"夏悟","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df1eaaefea17943e4e61117a0fad7fe4","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3475558392966132","idStr":"3475558392966132"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有没有机会[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"有没有机会[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"有没有机会[财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/979672409","repostId":"2061977251","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2061977251","pubTimestamp":1598004360,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2061977251?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-08-21 18:06","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"寻找10倍股：解码下一个“立讯精密”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2061977251","media":"新浪财经-自媒体综合","summary":"科技创新引领变革，能够颠覆传统，重新定义行业。13年前，iPhone的问世打破了人们对智能手机的认知，也引领了整个行业的潮流，让苹果成为世界最伟大公司之一，目前苹果市值突破2万亿美元，攫取了手机行业6","content":"<html><body><p><font>科技创新引领变革，能够颠覆传统，重新定义行业。</font></p><p><font>13年前，iPhone的问世打破了人们对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>手机的认知，也引领了整个行业的潮流，让<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>成为世界最伟大公司之一，目前苹果市值突破2万亿美元，攫取了手机行业60%以上的利润，也培育和带动一批产业链上的A股小伙伴，同样让它们赚的盆满钵满，10倍股涌现，典型代表就是中小板“一哥”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002475\">立讯精密</a>。</font></p><p><font>现如今， 又一个伟大的行业变迁出现在眼前。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>也在重新定义电动车行业，且与苹果有着诸多相似的基因，但汽车行业空间更大，目前特斯拉股价已突破2000美元，市值相当于2个丰田、9个通用、14个福特。但目前电动车渗透率还很低，行业刚处于起步阶段，随着国产化的加速提升，未来特斯拉将带领产业链公司开启黄金十年，也将会有电动车产业链上的“立讯精密”诞生。</font></p><p><font>一</font></p><p><font><font>特斯拉和苹果拥有相似的基因</font></font></p><p>1</p><p><font>品牌塑造：创始人光环，行业科技先锋</font></p><p><font>企业灵魂人物正如一面旗帜，对产品、文化、品牌的塑造至关重要，也会带出一批忠实粉丝。</font></p><p><font>苹果方面，创始人乔布斯始终坚持极致完美主义，极度偏执，追求创新，将个人意志注入苹果产品中，凭借其个人魅力在全球拥有众多粉丝，为苹果前期品牌塑造奠定坚实基础。</font></p><p><font>而特斯拉也是如此。马斯克从1995年辍学创办Zip2公司大获成功以后，在投资领域不断印证其风口属性。凭借个人光环效应以及粉丝的口碑营销，成功将特斯拉打造成全球知名电动车品牌。另外，马斯克在航空航天等超前的布局和思路进一步提升了个人影响力，如SpaceX太空运载火箭等，从而间接提升特斯拉的品牌力。</font></p><p><font>因此，苹果和特斯拉创始人的共同特点是都自带强大的个人光环，凭借超强个人魅力塑造品牌价值。在灵魂人物的加持下，二者设计风格都追求至繁归于至简，且均充当科技先锋形象。苹果首创的大屏幕、无键盘，特斯拉自Model S/X 发布以来，首次引入智能辅助驾驶，开创智能驾驶汽车先河。</font></p><p>2</p><p><font>核心竞争力：科技创新，引领变革</font></p><p><font>伟大企业都必须拥有核心竞争力，二者均有独门必杀技，体现到产品创新上，颠覆了传统，重新定义行业。 </font></p><p><font>科技上，iPhone搭载独家的、封闭的操作系统 ——iOS，且自研CPU性能持续领先。而特斯拉深入布局智能驾驶，重构汽车电子架构，快充技术迭代缩短充电时间等等，如5分钟充电量可行驶120公里。</font></p><p><font>产品上，iPhone的问世打破了人们对智能手机的认知，iPhone没有物理键盘，改为触碰模式，在硬件性能、颜值上，也全面碾压同行。特斯拉也是如此，Model S采用全新电动平台，上市后凭借超强动力表现，同时颠覆传统的内饰设计，引领行业潮流。</font></p><p>3</p><p><font>产品策略：高举高打，大单品战略</font></p><p><font>因为手机类和汽车类功能上差异化较为困难，因此品牌形象的差异尤为重要，高端品牌有利于实现更高的定价，实现更高的产品附加值。</font></p><p><font>二者都是定位都是高举高打，从高端到低端。苹果手机产品主要走高端路线，早期主要定位于高端手机市场，近年推出 iphone SE系列以及 XR 等相对中端系列产品，扩充产品价格区间覆盖。特斯拉最早推出Model S/X，主打高端<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DLX\">豪华</a>电动市场，产品定价70万及以上，2018 年及之后推出中端的Model 3/Y。 </font></p><p><font>另一方面，二者均采用大单品策略，有利于摊销研发费用及生产采购成本，同时也助推单一型号做到极致，提升产品竞争力。如2019年9月发布的iPhone只有三个型号，特斯拉也只围绕高端（Model S/X）， 中端（Model 3/Y）四款产品。</font></p><p><font>总之，特斯拉之所以能够媲美苹果，在于二者拥有相似的基因，即科技先锋，异曲同工。</font></p><p><font>二</font></p><p><font><font>产业链机会的演绎</font></font></p><p><font>那么，相比手机市场，电动车市场未来空间如何呢？</font></p><p><font>当前智能手机全球市场规模是3.1万亿元，从销量上看已经进入了成熟阶段。但当前电动车发展还处于萌芽阶段，2019年全球规模仅有0.31万亿元，渗透率只有2.3%，假设2030年电动车达到40%渗透率，全球电动车市场规模将达到约5.4万亿元，接近智能手机市场2倍，随着各<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600617\">国新能源</a>汽车政策的制定，电动车迎来加速渗透期，未来潜力巨大，这也意味着电动车市场能诞生出伟大的公司。</font></p><p><font>先说个结论：</font></p><p><font>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601377\">兴业证券</a>分析，通过回顾苹果产业链发展的三个阶段，目前特斯拉产业链的机会刚刚演绎至第一阶段，后续有十年的黄金时代。</font></p> <div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020821/740/w554h186/20200821/a43f-iyaiihk8437133.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>首先，回顾过往苹果产业链的黄金十年，苹果指数显著跑赢沪深300指数，相关公司有显著超额收益，例如立讯精密、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002241\">歌尔股份</a>等为代表的10-20倍股。</font></p><p><font>具体而言，整个苹果产业链至今演绎了三波大的投资机会，具体包括：</font></p> <p><font>第一波：2007年iPhone后，迅速成为爆款，相关A股公司陆续切入苹果产业链，由于对苹果后续高销量的预期，资本市场给予产业链公司高估值，2009-2012年，股价大幅上涨。</font></p><p><font>第二波：2013-2017，苹果销量兑现并且超出市场预期，也带动产业链A股公司业绩超预期增长，股价持续走高，但与业绩表现呈现明显相关性。同时苹果新的技术革新带来新的机会。如iPhone X 在2017年发布时宣布 Face ID、全面屏、玻璃机身等全面创新，相关赛道的A股公司也出现大幅上涨。</font></p><p><font><font>第三波：2018-2019，苹果开启了新的可穿戴领域，伴随Air pods等智能可穿戴设备迅速崛起，立讯精密、歌尔股份等相关公司迅速切入，新赛道打开新空间，公司整体业绩出现新增长点，股价也出现加速上攻。</font></font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020821/126/w554h372/20200821/802b-iyaiihk8437131.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>类比苹果产业链过去十年的发展，特斯拉2019年第二季度净现金流转正，Model 3销量稳步提升，特斯拉股价大幅上涨，目前已突破2000美元，市值相当于2个丰田、9个通用、14个福特。伴随特斯拉估值迅速提升，A 股相关产业链标的也经历股价的持续上涨。但当前国产特斯拉Model 3刚开始放量，上市公司业绩增长并不明显。</font></p><p><font>因此，当前特斯拉产业链类似于苹果第一阶段，股价走强来自于对特斯拉后续高销量的预期带来的估值提升。</font></p><p><font>未来第二阶段，伴随特斯拉销量的持续增长，A股公司业绩进入兑现期。若特斯拉后续销量表现超预期，则也将有望进一步带动产业链业绩与估值双双升。</font></p><p><font>另外，特斯拉之于汽车，犹如苹果之于智能手机，两者均为行业创新领先者和风向标，具有明显的示范效应。苹果在全面屏、人脸识别等新领域新方向的创新，带动了智能手机其他参与者的后续跟进，从而造就了一批相关产业链公司的崛起。特斯拉当前的一些产品创新，各大厂商也在纷纷效仿，或将成为行业未来的发展趋势，从而带来细分产业链的繁荣新机会。如：中控大屏、域控制器与高算力芯片、空气悬架、热泵系统、底盘轻量化等。</font></p><p><font>第三阶段，特斯拉未来围绕汽车生态圈拓展，或将带动产业链又一春。</font></p><p><font>三</font></p><p><font>伴随特斯拉一起壮大的A股小伙伴</font></p><p><font>据兴业证券分析，对比苹果产业链公司受益的情况，特斯拉产业链公司后续受益同样分两种：单一赛道的产品不断升级，以及多赛道的不断突破。</font></p> <p><font>1）单一赛道的纵向延伸：</font></p><p><font>凭借技术壁垒在单一细分领域深入挖掘，后续伴随特斯拉放量，实现业绩快速增长。如热管理领域不断突破的<font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002050\">三花智控</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002126\">银轮股份</a></font>，内饰领域不断延伸的<font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603179\">新泉股份</a></font>，铝压铸以及底盘领域不断拓展的<font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601689\">拓普集团</a></font>，天幕玻璃带动玻璃领域不断拓展的<font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600660\">福耀玻璃</a></font>，潜在可能进入中控领域及域控制器领域的<font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002920\">德赛西威</a></font>，潜在可能进入空悬 领域的<font><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000887\">中鼎股份</a></font>。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020821/797/w554h243/20200821/d556-iyaiihk8437351.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><p><font>2）多赛道的拓展能力：</font></p><p><font>相关产业链标的具备多品类供货能力，通过与特斯拉的深度绑定实现从点到面，各类产品逐渐切入特斯拉供应体系，横向业务拓展带来单车配套价值提升，从而伴随特斯拉发展壮大。如当前多业务布局的<font>拓普集团、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600699\">均胜电子</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600741\">华域汽车</a></font>。</font></p><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020821/80/w554h326/20200821/ccd5-iyaiihk8437352.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><div><img src=\"http://k.sinaimg.cn/n/spider2020821/155/w129h26/20200821/dd7c-iyaiihk8437501.png/w720fin.jpg\"/></div><div><comment></comment></div>创业板注册制24日开板，20%涨跌幅来了！开户紧抓上车机会！<p>免责声明：自媒体综合提供的内容均源自自媒体，版权归原作者所有，转载请联系原作者并获许可。文章观点仅代表作者本人，不代表<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SINA\">新浪</a>立场。若内容涉及投资建议，仅供参考勿作为投资依据。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。</p></body></html>","source":"sina_symbol","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>寻找10倍股：解码下一个“立讯精密”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n寻找10倍股：解码下一个“立讯精密”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-08-21 18:06 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2020-08-21/doc-iivhuipn9939944.shtml><strong>新浪财经-自媒体综合</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>科技创新引领变革，能够颠覆传统，重新定义行业。13年前，iPhone的问世打破了人们对智能手机的认知，也引领了整个行业的潮流，让苹果成为世界最伟大公司之一，目前苹果市值突破2万亿美元，攫取了手机行业60%以上的利润，也培育和带动一批产业链上的A股小伙伴，同样让它们赚的盆满钵满，10倍股涌现，典型代表就是中小板“一哥”立讯精密。现如今， 又一个伟大的行业变迁出现在眼前。特斯拉也在重新定义电动车行业，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2020-08-21/doc-iivhuipn9939944.shtml\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c98d33d3369990730a901b19fedfe1d4","relate_stocks":{"002475":"立讯精密"},"source_url":"http://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2020-08-21/doc-iivhuipn9939944.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2061977251","content_text":"科技创新引领变革，能够颠覆传统，重新定义行业。13年前，iPhone的问世打破了人们对智能手机的认知，也引领了整个行业的潮流，让苹果成为世界最伟大公司之一，目前苹果市值突破2万亿美元，攫取了手机行业60%以上的利润，也培育和带动一批产业链上的A股小伙伴，同样让它们赚的盆满钵满，10倍股涌现，典型代表就是中小板“一哥”立讯精密。现如今， 又一个伟大的行业变迁出现在眼前。特斯拉也在重新定义电动车行业，且与苹果有着诸多相似的基因，但汽车行业空间更大，目前特斯拉股价已突破2000美元，市值相当于2个丰田、9个通用、14个福特。但目前电动车渗透率还很低，行业刚处于起步阶段，随着国产化的加速提升，未来特斯拉将带领产业链公司开启黄金十年，也将会有电动车产业链上的“立讯精密”诞生。一特斯拉和苹果拥有相似的基因1品牌塑造：创始人光环，行业科技先锋企业灵魂人物正如一面旗帜，对产品、文化、品牌的塑造至关重要，也会带出一批忠实粉丝。苹果方面，创始人乔布斯始终坚持极致完美主义，极度偏执，追求创新，将个人意志注入苹果产品中，凭借其个人魅力在全球拥有众多粉丝，为苹果前期品牌塑造奠定坚实基础。而特斯拉也是如此。马斯克从1995年辍学创办Zip2公司大获成功以后，在投资领域不断印证其风口属性。凭借个人光环效应以及粉丝的口碑营销，成功将特斯拉打造成全球知名电动车品牌。另外，马斯克在航空航天等超前的布局和思路进一步提升了个人影响力，如SpaceX太空运载火箭等，从而间接提升特斯拉的品牌力。因此，苹果和特斯拉创始人的共同特点是都自带强大的个人光环，凭借超强个人魅力塑造品牌价值。在灵魂人物的加持下，二者设计风格都追求至繁归于至简，且均充当科技先锋形象。苹果首创的大屏幕、无键盘，特斯拉自Model S/X 发布以来，首次引入智能辅助驾驶，开创智能驾驶汽车先河。2核心竞争力：科技创新，引领变革伟大企业都必须拥有核心竞争力，二者均有独门必杀技，体现到产品创新上，颠覆了传统，重新定义行业。 科技上，iPhone搭载独家的、封闭的操作系统 ——iOS，且自研CPU性能持续领先。而特斯拉深入布局智能驾驶，重构汽车电子架构，快充技术迭代缩短充电时间等等，如5分钟充电量可行驶120公里。产品上，iPhone的问世打破了人们对智能手机的认知，iPhone没有物理键盘，改为触碰模式，在硬件性能、颜值上，也全面碾压同行。特斯拉也是如此，Model S采用全新电动平台，上市后凭借超强动力表现，同时颠覆传统的内饰设计，引领行业潮流。3产品策略：高举高打，大单品战略因为手机类和汽车类功能上差异化较为困难，因此品牌形象的差异尤为重要，高端品牌有利于实现更高的定价，实现更高的产品附加值。二者都是定位都是高举高打，从高端到低端。苹果手机产品主要走高端路线，早期主要定位于高端手机市场，近年推出 iphone SE系列以及 XR 等相对中端系列产品，扩充产品价格区间覆盖。特斯拉最早推出Model S/X，主打高端豪华电动市场，产品定价70万及以上，2018 年及之后推出中端的Model 3/Y。 另一方面，二者均采用大单品策略，有利于摊销研发费用及生产采购成本，同时也助推单一型号做到极致，提升产品竞争力。如2019年9月发布的iPhone只有三个型号，特斯拉也只围绕高端（Model S/X）， 中端（Model 3/Y）四款产品。总之，特斯拉之所以能够媲美苹果，在于二者拥有相似的基因，即科技先锋，异曲同工。二产业链机会的演绎那么，相比手机市场，电动车市场未来空间如何呢？当前智能手机全球市场规模是3.1万亿元，从销量上看已经进入了成熟阶段。但当前电动车发展还处于萌芽阶段，2019年全球规模仅有0.31万亿元，渗透率只有2.3%，假设2030年电动车达到40%渗透率，全球电动车市场规模将达到约5.4万亿元，接近智能手机市场2倍，随着各国新能源汽车政策的制定，电动车迎来加速渗透期，未来潜力巨大，这也意味着电动车市场能诞生出伟大的公司。先说个结论：据兴业证券分析，通过回顾苹果产业链发展的三个阶段，目前特斯拉产业链的机会刚刚演绎至第一阶段，后续有十年的黄金时代。 首先，回顾过往苹果产业链的黄金十年，苹果指数显著跑赢沪深300指数，相关公司有显著超额收益，例如立讯精密、歌尔股份等为代表的10-20倍股。具体而言，整个苹果产业链至今演绎了三波大的投资机会，具体包括： 第一波：2007年iPhone后，迅速成为爆款，相关A股公司陆续切入苹果产业链，由于对苹果后续高销量的预期，资本市场给予产业链公司高估值，2009-2012年，股价大幅上涨。第二波：2013-2017，苹果销量兑现并且超出市场预期，也带动产业链A股公司业绩超预期增长，股价持续走高，但与业绩表现呈现明显相关性。同时苹果新的技术革新带来新的机会。如iPhone X 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