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Simon0997
2020-09-11
$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$
跑啊
Simon0997
2020-09-09
信高盛?
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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>跑啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>跑啊","text":"$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$跑啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976701578","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976359988,"gmtCreate":1599612295144,"gmtModify":1703819033883,"author":{"id":"3475405290103696","authorId":"3475405290103696","authorIdStr":"3475405290103696","name":"Simon0997","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02391ce597fe08a1e85d09e550bad52a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"信高盛?","listText":"信高盛?","text":"信高盛?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976359988","repostId":"1118295152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":976359988,"gmtCreate":1599612295144,"gmtModify":1703819033883,"author":{"id":"3475405290103696","authorId":"3475405290103696","authorIdStr":"3475405290103696","name":"Simon0997","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02391ce597fe08a1e85d09e550bad52a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"信高盛?","listText":"信高盛?","text":"信高盛?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976359988","repostId":"1118295152","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118295152","pubTimestamp":1599657541,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118295152?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-09 21:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"高盛:10大理由支撑美股长牛","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118295152","media":"金十数据","summary":"美股狂跌背后的逻辑在哪?从技术层面看,投资者近期投机情绪严重,并在期权等衍生品上大量押注。在此次美股暴跌之前,我们看到前所未有的美股买盘狂潮,尤其是科技股备受追捧,这也导致了科技股期权仓位大幅增加。同","content":"<p><b>美股狂跌背后的逻辑在哪?</b></p><p><b>从技术层面看,投资者近期投机情绪严重,并在期权等衍生品上大量押注。</b>在此次美股暴跌之前,我们看到前所未有的美股买盘狂潮,尤其是科技股备受追捧,这也导致了科技股期权仓位大幅增加。同时,美国看跌/看涨比率达到历史最低水平,现货交易量的相关性也回到了正区域。”</p><p>高盛写道:这种过度的期权定位凸显了近期股票回报的不对称性,并指出纳斯达克净股本未来的仓位峰值已接近历史高点。不过好在市场宽度相对较窄,引发的抛售规模也有限。</p><p><b>此外,诱发美股下挫的关键催化剂是,美国10年期实际利率上涨(较低点上涨了8个基点),这很可能引发了诸如成长股和科技股等较长期限股票的抛售。</b></p><p>高盛指出随着名义收益率被各国央行锚定,盈亏平衡通胀率和实际利率更有可能朝相反方向移动。该行补充说:“通常对于风险资产和安全资产而言,盈亏平衡通胀率并降低实际利率通常是友好的,而<b>降低</b>盈亏平衡通胀率<b>和提高实际利率对市场则非常不利,因为通常这会引发所有资产下跌。</b></p><p>上述理论也解释了为什么自9月2日以来除了美股,其他大多数资产也在下跌。目前,持有多类资产的投资者都在忙于调整自己的资金配置。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f06e44ae8195227f71346a4008b6d10\" tg-width=\"781\" tg-height=\"259\"></p><p><b>短期:美股或继续下跌</b></p><p>目前,各路分析师纷纷表示,从历史经验来看,美股在短期内可能还会迎来进一步下跌。</p><p>结合美股的历史表现,日晷资本研究公司的创始人戈普费特对外表示,纳指往往会从峰值迅速下跌。因此,他在上周五的一份报告中警告说,如果这真的是一个顶部,“在未来几周可能出现几乎是直线下降的走势”。</p><p>同时,高盛也警告称:<b>美股近期将继续受挫,因纳斯达克看涨情绪受到了创纪录的冲击</b>。华尔街长期多头爱德华·亚德尼也同意此观点,并指出当前投资者正试图减持大型成长股,特别是科技股,这会使美股进一步下跌。</p><p>华尔街证券研究公司的全球顾问也给出了美股或将继续受挫的理由,其表示:根据历史经验,<b>剧烈的抛售通常需要至少三天的时间才能将恐慌的卖方冲垮,也称“三天规则”。</b></p><p><b>长期:10大理由支撑美股牛市</b></p><p>尽管高盛警告美股短期很可能继续下挫,但该行预计,因为经济复苏以及货币政策的支持,长期来看美股牛市前景不变。</p><p>具体而言,高盛的策略师Peter Oppenheimer给出了支撑现在美股的牛市的十个理由:</p><blockquote>第一,在严重衰退之后,我们正处于 <b>新投资周期</b>的第一阶段。 新周期的第一部分通常在经济衰退中开始,但这一阶段人们重拾信心通常在新周期中最强,当前我们正处于这一位置。</blockquote><blockquote>第二, <b>疫苗</b>很可能即将问世,美国和全球经济的复苏态势看起来更加持久。</blockquote><blockquote>第三,我们的经济学家最近 <b>上调对经济的预测</b>,其他银行的上调也可能紧随其后。</blockquote><blockquote>第四,我们的 <b>熊市指标</b>(2019年时这一指标一度处于非常高的水平)表明,尽管目前股市估值很高,但陷入熊市的风险相对较低。</blockquote><blockquote>第五, <b>政策</b>仍然非常支持风险资产——既有美联储的“投入”,即人们相信央行将进一步提供流动性;又有政府的财政“投入”,即政府依然有促进经济恢复增长的意愿。</blockquote><blockquote>第六, <b>股票风险溢价</b>有收窄的空间。</blockquote><blockquote>第七,低利率的环境对风险资产有利。美联储此前多次暗示将低利率维持在未来一段时间,这些前瞻指引创造了实际利率维持在低水平的 <b>利率环境</b>。这意味着,在经济复苏中风险资产获得支撑。</blockquote><blockquote>第八, <b>通胀预期真正上升,购买股票为投资者</b>提供了合理对冲。</blockquote><blockquote>第九,相对于公司债务而言, <b>股票</b>并不算贵,尤其是对于资产负债表强劲的公司而言(60%的美国公司和80%欧洲公司的股息收益率高于平均公司债券收益率)。</blockquote><blockquote>第十, <b>数字革命</b>继续发展。高盛认为数字革命对经济和股市带来的转变还会进一步深化,相关领域的公司可能会继续推动牛市,并获得更高的估值和更丰厚的回报。</blockquote>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>高盛:10大理由支撑美股长牛</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n高盛:10大理由支撑美股长牛\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-09 21:19 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/64422><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美股狂跌背后的逻辑在哪?从技术层面看,投资者近期投机情绪严重,并在期权等衍生品上大量押注。在此次美股暴跌之前,我们看到前所未有的美股买盘狂潮,尤其是科技股备受追捧,这也导致了科技股期权仓位大幅增加。同时,美国看跌/看涨比率达到历史最低水平,现货交易量的相关性也回到了正区域。”高盛写道:这种过度的期权定位凸显了近期股票回报的不对称性,并指出纳斯达克净股本未来的仓位峰值已接近历史高点。不过好在市场宽度...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/64422\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ce4524f3159771d39966dbd4e93487d","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/64422","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118295152","content_text":"美股狂跌背后的逻辑在哪?从技术层面看,投资者近期投机情绪严重,并在期权等衍生品上大量押注。在此次美股暴跌之前,我们看到前所未有的美股买盘狂潮,尤其是科技股备受追捧,这也导致了科技股期权仓位大幅增加。同时,美国看跌/看涨比率达到历史最低水平,现货交易量的相关性也回到了正区域。”高盛写道:这种过度的期权定位凸显了近期股票回报的不对称性,并指出纳斯达克净股本未来的仓位峰值已接近历史高点。不过好在市场宽度相对较窄,引发的抛售规模也有限。此外,诱发美股下挫的关键催化剂是,美国10年期实际利率上涨(较低点上涨了8个基点),这很可能引发了诸如成长股和科技股等较长期限股票的抛售。高盛指出随着名义收益率被各国央行锚定,盈亏平衡通胀率和实际利率更有可能朝相反方向移动。该行补充说:“通常对于风险资产和安全资产而言,盈亏平衡通胀率并降低实际利率通常是友好的,而降低盈亏平衡通胀率和提高实际利率对市场则非常不利,因为通常这会引发所有资产下跌。上述理论也解释了为什么自9月2日以来除了美股,其他大多数资产也在下跌。目前,持有多类资产的投资者都在忙于调整自己的资金配置。短期:美股或继续下跌目前,各路分析师纷纷表示,从历史经验来看,美股在短期内可能还会迎来进一步下跌。结合美股的历史表现,日晷资本研究公司的创始人戈普费特对外表示,纳指往往会从峰值迅速下跌。因此,他在上周五的一份报告中警告说,如果这真的是一个顶部,“在未来几周可能出现几乎是直线下降的走势”。同时,高盛也警告称:美股近期将继续受挫,因纳斯达克看涨情绪受到了创纪录的冲击。华尔街长期多头爱德华·亚德尼也同意此观点,并指出当前投资者正试图减持大型成长股,特别是科技股,这会使美股进一步下跌。华尔街证券研究公司的全球顾问也给出了美股或将继续受挫的理由,其表示:根据历史经验,剧烈的抛售通常需要至少三天的时间才能将恐慌的卖方冲垮,也称“三天规则”。长期:10大理由支撑美股牛市尽管高盛警告美股短期很可能继续下挫,但该行预计,因为经济复苏以及货币政策的支持,长期来看美股牛市前景不变。具体而言,高盛的策略师Peter Oppenheimer给出了支撑现在美股的牛市的十个理由:第一,在严重衰退之后,我们正处于 新投资周期的第一阶段。 新周期的第一部分通常在经济衰退中开始,但这一阶段人们重拾信心通常在新周期中最强,当前我们正处于这一位置。第二, 疫苗很可能即将问世,美国和全球经济的复苏态势看起来更加持久。第三,我们的经济学家最近 上调对经济的预测,其他银行的上调也可能紧随其后。第四,我们的 熊市指标(2019年时这一指标一度处于非常高的水平)表明,尽管目前股市估值很高,但陷入熊市的风险相对较低。第五, 政策仍然非常支持风险资产——既有美联储的“投入”,即人们相信央行将进一步提供流动性;又有政府的财政“投入”,即政府依然有促进经济恢复增长的意愿。第六, 股票风险溢价有收窄的空间。第七,低利率的环境对风险资产有利。美联储此前多次暗示将低利率维持在未来一段时间,这些前瞻指引创造了实际利率维持在低水平的 利率环境。这意味着,在经济复苏中风险资产获得支撑。第八, 通胀预期真正上升,购买股票为投资者提供了合理对冲。第九,相对于公司债务而言, 股票并不算贵,尤其是对于资产负债表强劲的公司而言(60%的美国公司和80%欧洲公司的股息收益率高于平均公司债券收益率)。第十, 数字革命继续发展。高盛认为数字革命对经济和股市带来的转变还会进一步深化,相关领域的公司可能会继续推动牛市,并获得更高的估值和更丰厚的回报。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1094,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667803686145","authorId":"3527667803686145","authorIdStr":"3527667803686145","name":"社区成长助手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b7c7106b5c0c8b0037faa67439d898f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"content":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","text":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引","html":"终于等到了您的初发帖[比心][比心]发帖时关联相关股票或者相关话题,可以获得更多曝光哦~如果您想创作优质文章,请查看老虎社区创作指引"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":976701578,"gmtCreate":1599833663894,"gmtModify":1703819881977,"author":{"id":"3475405290103696","authorId":"3475405290103696","authorIdStr":"3475405290103696","name":"Simon0997","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02391ce597fe08a1e85d09e550bad52a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>跑啊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PTON\">$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$</a>跑啊","text":"$Peloton Interactive, Inc.(PTON)$跑啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/976701578","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}