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好了
2018-06-17
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$马云出场!崔永元黑名单放出终极大Boss?
好了
2018-03-29
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$臭不要脸的,每次别人盘前没动,你就先涨,真当散户是猪🐷阿
好了
2018-03-21
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$美联储要加息是利空吧?怎么还都涨❓
好了
2018-03-07
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$盘后坑爹啊
好了
2018-02-23
$高通(QCOM)$尾盘大量卖出的,盘后价格又涨上去了,这是什么套路?请教股友们😓
好了
2018-02-16
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$请教下各位朋友,有用香港卡出入金的吗?具体是那种的,怎么办理?谢谢🙏🙏
好了
2018-03-14
$红黄蓝(RYB)$都没人玩了 还装(~o~)Y,搞点分红刺激下吧。
好了
2018-03-05
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$大单买入比卖出多这么多,股价还下跌?
好了
2018-02-09
$苹果(AAPL)$今天苹果有分红?😳
好了
2018-02-01
$阿里巴巴(BABA)$请教下:阿里有分红吗?在几月份,哪里能看到往年的数据?
好了
2018-03-09
$红黄蓝(RYB)$这个红黄蓝什么时候分红?
好了
2018-03-06
$网易(NTES)$这个盘前交易怎么有时没有呢?
好了
2018-02-02
$红黄蓝(RYB)$庄家拉不动了吧?
好了
2020-09-30
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
抱歉,原内容已删除
好了
2020-09-30
这篇文章不错,转发给大家看
风险预警!10月美股市场不可忽视的四大风险
好了
2020-02-12
$慧择控股(HUIZ)$
什么时候开盘?
好了
2018-05-15
$苹果(AAPL)$今天又发生了什么?_?
好了
2018-04-21
真滴么👻
@重仓科技股:【亚马逊式的报复:错发1万本书到白宫】
好了
2018-02-02
怎么看往年分红呢?
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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$通用汽车(GM)$ $微博(WB)$ $Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $美光科技(MU)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $京东(JD)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $谷歌A(GOOGL)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$ 【亚马逊式的报复:错发1万本书到白宫】 特朗普与亚马逊的恩怨由来已久。今年3月底,特朗普开始集中火力向亚马逊“开炮”,令后者市值一度蒸发536亿美元。近日,亚马逊以一种非常独特的方式回应了川普。联邦调查局(FBI)前局长詹姆斯·科米(James Comey)出书曝与特朗普总统的矛盾,新书还没正式上市,电商亚马逊就“错发”了1万本到白宫,让特朗普大为光火。 据《纽约客》网站报道,亚马逊12日将1万本科米的自传“错发”到白宫,书堆满了白宫走廊,特朗普十分愤怒,甚至对正在赞扬他的副总统彭斯(Mike Pence)发脾气。亚马逊12日道歉称这是一次“令人遗憾的意外”。亚马逊创始人贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)表示,他“完全不知道”那1万本书是如何进入白宫的,他建议特朗普按照亚马逊网站上的退货程序退回不需要的商品。 “你可以在家里打印退货标签。”贝索斯说,“工作人员应该可以在两周内——最多三周——把这些书从白宫取走。”贝索斯还称,将这些书运回公司仓库对亚马逊来说不会太贵,因为“我们在邮费上得到了惊人的优惠”,暗讽特朗普之前抨击亚马逊让美国邮政(USPS)损失了数十亿美元。","listText":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ $通用汽车(GM)$ $微博(WB)$ $Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $美光科技(MU)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $京东(JD)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $谷歌A(GOOGL)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$ 【亚马逊式的报复:错发1万本书到白宫】 特朗普与亚马逊的恩怨由来已久。今年3月底,特朗普开始集中火力向亚马逊“开炮”,令后者市值一度蒸发536亿美元。近日,亚马逊以一种非常独特的方式回应了川普。联邦调查局(FBI)前局长詹姆斯·科米(James Comey)出书曝与特朗普总统的矛盾,新书还没正式上市,电商亚马逊就“错发”了1万本到白宫,让特朗普大为光火。 据《纽约客》网站报道,亚马逊12日将1万本科米的自传“错发”到白宫,书堆满了白宫走廊,特朗普十分愤怒,甚至对正在赞扬他的副总统彭斯(Mike Pence)发脾气。亚马逊12日道歉称这是一次“令人遗憾的意外”。亚马逊创始人贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)表示,他“完全不知道”那1万本书是如何进入白宫的,他建议特朗普按照亚马逊网站上的退货程序退回不需要的商品。 “你可以在家里打印退货标签。”贝索斯说,“工作人员应该可以在两周内——最多三周——把这些书从白宫取走。”贝索斯还称,将这些书运回公司仓库对亚马逊来说不会太贵,因为“我们在邮费上得到了惊人的优惠”,暗讽特朗普之前抨击亚马逊让美国邮政(USPS)损失了数十亿美元。","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ $通用汽车(GM)$ $微博(WB)$ $Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $美光科技(MU)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $京东(JD)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $谷歌A(GOOGL)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$ 【亚马逊式的报复:错发1万本书到白宫】 特朗普与亚马逊的恩怨由来已久。今年3月底,特朗普开始集中火力向亚马逊“开炮”,令后者市值一度蒸发536亿美元。近日,亚马逊以一种非常独特的方式回应了川普。联邦调查局(FBI)前局长詹姆斯·科米(James Comey)出书曝与特朗普总统的矛盾,新书还没正式上市,电商亚马逊就“错发”了1万本到白宫,让特朗普大为光火。 据《纽约客》网站报道,亚马逊12日将1万本科米的自传“错发”到白宫,书堆满了白宫走廊,特朗普十分愤怒,甚至对正在赞扬他的副总统彭斯(Mike Pence)发脾气。亚马逊12日道歉称这是一次“令人遗憾的意外”。亚马逊创始人贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)表示,他“完全不知道”那1万本书是如何进入白宫的,他建议特朗普按照亚马逊网站上的退货程序退回不需要的商品。 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te":1601419004204,"gmtModify":1703824251554,"author":{"id":"3475001753401327","authorId":"3475001753401327","name":"好了","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","listText":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","text":"这篇文章不错,转发给大家看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/977940408","repostId":"1115203454","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115203454","pubTimestamp":1601378887,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115203454?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2020-09-29 19:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"风险预警!10月美股市场不可忽视的四大风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115203454","media":"金十数据","summary":"9月末的动荡或是10月的常态,四大风险冲击下,10月的市场恐异常动荡。\n9月份已经临近尾声,近期市场波动明显加剧,而投资者即将迎来更为动荡的10月。除了美国大选之外,还有另外三大风险也将在10月份集中","content":"<p>9月末的动荡或是10月的常态,四大风险冲击下,10月的市场恐异常动荡。</p>\n<p>9月份已经临近尾声,近期市场波动明显加剧,而投资者即将迎来更为动荡的10月。除了美国大选之外,还有另外三大风险也将在10月份集中爆发,这些风险将对市场造成怎样的冲击?投资者该如何应对?</p>\n<p><b>10月不可忽视的四大风险</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>风险一:小心美国大选再次上演“十月惊奇”重要程度:✮✮✮✮✮</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>10月份最重磅的风险事件无疑就是美国大选的相关动态,虽然大选日期是在11月3日,但两党之间的竞争早已进入白热化,投资者也开始提前布局。</p>\n<p>目前已知的10月份跟美国大选相关的动态就是剩下的三次大选辩论(一次副总统辩论和两次总统辩论),这几场辩论的结果可能会影响特朗普和拜登的选民支持率。</p>\n<p>这次美国大选前,美国两党的政治分歧达到近20年来的罕见程度,而且两位总统候选人的民调支持率的差距正在缩小,因此人们更为关注<b>今年是否还会出现“十月惊奇”,进而影响大选结果。</b></p>\n<p><b>所谓的“十月惊奇”,是一个专门针对美国大选的政治术语,指的是在10月份故意制造一些新闻事件,以影响大选的结果。</b>由于美国大选的日期是11月3日,因此10月份发生的事件对选民的决策有很大的影响。</p>\n<p>那么下个月可能成为“10月惊奇”的风险事件有哪些呢?</p>\n<p>会发现还真的不少,可以分为美国国内和国际两个方面来看。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 美国国内能够成为“十月惊奇”的风险事件很多,例如\n <b>新冠疫苗、大法官的任命、还有潜在的政府关门、特朗普漏税、美国暴乱等等。</b>国际方面,\n <b>有人猜测特朗普可能会选择同伊朗开战来影响选情</b>。之前美国分别撮合以色列与阿联酋、巴林建立外交关系,也被认为有孤立伊朗的意图。而且近期美国又开始对伊朗实施了新的制裁。\n</blockquote>\n<p>不过,也有分析指出,鉴于今年邮寄选票比较多,“十月惊奇”的影响力可能会有所打折扣。</p>\n<p>美国克里斯托弗纽波特大学政治学系学者孙太一就表示,因为邮寄选票多了,很多选民在10月底就把票投了,因此就算到最后一刻再搞出个大新闻,其影响力要比往常小得多。</p>\n<p>不管怎样,投资者都应该做好准备,如果美国真的在大选前搞出一个甚至多个“十月惊奇”出来,那么市场免不了经历一番动荡。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>风险二:疫苗进展——千亿美元市场的竞赛重要程度:✮✮✮✮</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>除了大选外,疫情的相关动态也是10月份的一个重大风险。自5月份以来,人们对疫情的关注度就开始下降,但是,它却一直没有翻篇。一位医学专家将疫情比作美国西部的森林大火,即使旧的地方已经扑灭了火势,但一些新的地方又起火了,而且没人知道下个爆发的地方会是哪里。</p>\n<p>投资者对新增确诊人数或者死亡人数这些数据本身已经并不敏感,对市场影响更大的是跟疫苗研发相关的消息。</p>\n<p><b>疫苗的竞争可能会在10月份成为焦点。10月的某个时候,投资者可能会看到正在进行的第三阶段重大试验的初步数据</b>,或者至少会得到一份进展报告。届时辉瑞和BioNTech将获得3万人的试验数据;Moderna的数据也可能很快出炉。<b>辉瑞的高管们已将临床试验扩大至4.4万名参与者,他们称到10月底就能知道他们的疫苗是否有效。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b704ac74c1d0ae3c509127795b583a2\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"1015\"></p>\n<p>特朗普近期也频繁表示,他希望疫苗能在大选前投入使用。如果任何一项试验出现问题,都可能引发市场动荡。</p>\n<p>目前,<b>疫苗领域的投资者资金规模超过1000亿美元,投资者的决策很容易受到疫苗研制结果的影响</b>。SVB Leerink的杰弗里·博格斯(Geoffrey Porges)博士表示,这一数字大致反映了股市对正在研制的疫苗市场的估值。</p>\n<p>投资者应该小心防范疫苗相关消息引起的市场波动。<b>因为只要跟疫苗沾边的消息,都会引起股市的剧烈波动。</b>例如,生物技术公司Moderna在5月中旬称对其研制的疫苗进行了小规模的初步试验,该公司的市值在一天之内飙升了49亿美元,但紧接着又在一天内下跌了20亿美元。</p>\n<p>当疫苗公司公布后期试验数据后,投资者应密切留意研制疫苗的公司的股票波动。是利好还是利空取决于试验数据的表现。不过,投资者不应期待疫苗会是完美无缺的,应该降低一些期望值。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>风险三:不容乐观的美股财报季重要程度:✮✮✮✮</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>10月中旬即将开始的美股财报季也将是一个重大风险事件。<b>美股新一轮财报季将在10月第二周拉开帷幕,届时料在市场上掀起更多波澜。</b></p>\n<p>在上一个财报季中,美股公司的表现普遍好于分析师的预期,标普500指数成份股公司中有超过80%的公司好于相对较低的预期。不过,研究公司FactSet的数据显示,标普500指数成份股收益下跌了近32%,从这数据来看,美股的表现并不理想。</p>\n<p>第三季度的情况也好不到哪里去,<b>FactSet预计第三季度的平均收益将下降21.8%。这将是过去七个季度中美国大公司每股收益下滑的第六个季度。</b></p>\n<p>对投资者来说可能更糟的是,FactSet预计金融业的业绩表现将排在第四,有两个原因。首先,因为当金融股陷入困境时,传统的刺激措施很难使金融股维持更大幅度的反弹。其次,因为大型银行将在10月中旬率先发布业绩,可能为其他所有银行定下基调。</p>\n<p>当财报季开始时,所有人的目光可能都会先集中在摩根大通、高盛和美国银行等投行身上,投资者可能会留意这些投行的首席执行官对经济的看法。</p>\n<p>航空业也是备受关注的一个行业,<b>随着第一轮刺激资金耗尽,投资者应考虑关注这些航空公司的现金状况。如果美国政府迟迟未能提供新的援助,那么陷入困境的航空股可能会遭受另一次打击。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>风险四:飓风最多的10月重要程度:✮✮✮</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>2020年的飓风季可能会被载入美国历史,因为今年的风暴多到美国的气象学者已经找不到名字来命名,最终不得不使用希腊字母。</p>\n<p><b>截至9月23日,飓风季节还剩两个多月,大西洋已经出现了23个已命名的风暴——大约是整个飓风季节长期平均水平的两倍。</b>美国气象局预计,下一个飓风活跃时期将从10月7日至10日开始。<b>有迹象显示,10月份美国的飓风活动可能会继续增强。</b></p>\n<p>10月份恰恰又是美国历史上飓风最强劲的月份,往年许多破坏力惊人的飓风都是发生在10月份。</p>\n<p>例如2018年的“迈克尔飓风”,2005年10月的威尔玛飓风目前仍是有记录以来大西洋上最强的飓风。还有1998年的Mitch、1995年的Opal和1954年的Hazel等等。对于像佛罗里达这样的州来说,十月是飓风季中最危险的月份。自1950年以来,有112场飓风袭击了这个州,其中38场发生在10月份。</p>\n<p>飓风对市场的影响更多是体现在油市方面,例如,<b>之前受飓风“萨利”影响,美国墨西哥湾区大约49.71万桶/日或26.87%的原油产能被关闭。上周,由于热带风暴\"贝塔”影响,墨西哥湾“火星\"平台的钻井作业已经暂停,所有工作人员从墨西哥湾西部的佩迪多撤离。</b></p>\n<p>当飓风来袭时,其对原油市场的影响主要可以从三个方面去把握:</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>1、海上石油产量;2、炼油厂断电和损坏;3、原油进出口是否停滞。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>当然,飓风对油价的影响要看它的破坏程度。例如,当年的卡特里娜飓风令美国墨西哥湾地区92%的原油生产和83%的天然气生产暂停。如果10月份飓风令美国原油设施遭受严重破坏,油价可能会获得提振。</p>\n<p><b>市场最动荡的10月</b></p>\n<p>在上述风险事件中,投资者们最关注的无疑就是美国大选了。投资者对有争议的美国总统大选的风险越来越紧张,随着对冲市场动荡的成本上升,投资者加大了为可能出现的市场波动期做准备的力度。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是,<b>10月份原本就是美股一年当中最动荡的月份,下图显示了1896年以来道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数每月日变化的标准差。10月份为1.43%,远高于平均水平1.09%。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a7e72330a60529bcd2f3ca24b6bfa5\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"742\"></p>\n<p>而且这个数据已经剔除了一些异常的年份,比如美股历史上两次最严重的崩盘——<b>1929年和1987年,这两次美股崩盘都发生在10月份,但这两年的数据并没有包含在内。</b></p>\n<p>长期以来,与VIX波动指数挂钩的期货反映出,投资者担心大选结果可能会引发争议,导致市场出现异常波动。分析人士表示,鉴于此前的大选投票很少引起市场动荡,因此投资者对此比较重视。</p>\n<p>对冲基金Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers的首席投资官乔迪·维瑟(Jordi Visser)表示,<b>对冲美国大选结果的成本越来越高,由于防范市场动荡的对冲成本高昂,这可能反而促使一些投资者大幅减持风险资产。</b></p>\n<p><b>10月和11月到期的VIX期货合约水平已从仅10天前的约30点,攀升至周一收盘的31点和33点,相对于目前波动率指数的VIX现货(26点),已经有了很大的溢价。</b>投资者可以利用这些合约对冲市场动荡或从中获利。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/158c4c83591c61309daf8ca4a28bac04\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"712\"></p>\n<p>同样,12月VIX期货合约价格已从10天前的30点攀升至周一晚间的31点。六个月前,该合约价格约为26点。明年1月份的VIX期货合约还反映出,选举后的政治动荡可能会持续到2021年。</p>\n<p>高盛(Goldman Sachs)衍生品分析师Rocky Fishman指出,<b>VIX期货交易量低迷,表明银行不愿出售可用于对冲股市动荡的金融产品,而这可能加剧了上述提到的对冲成本上升的情况。</b></p>\n<p>投资者还开始押注,美国大选引发的市场动荡可能会蔓延至其它地区。<b>欧洲和日本的类似隐含波动率指数——Vstoxx和日经平均波动率指数,两者10月和11月期货合约在过去一个月里也出现了显著攀升。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f6690cfdd432b2ae572484dd288f3d\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利美股策略师主管Michael Wilson近期也发出警告,<b>未来5周的市场波动性将变得更高,交易环境将更加艰难。</b></p>\n<p>而花旗、瑞银等投行则在上述风险来临前部署黄金。瑞银近日警告客户,由于美国大选结果不定,且最终日期不断临近,现在是配置黄金的最佳时机。花旗上周也做出预测,黄金可能在年底前创下纪录新高,部分原因就是美国总统大选带来的风险。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>风险预警!10月美股市场不可忽视的四大风险</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n风险预警!10月美股市场不可忽视的四大风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-29 19:28 北京时间 <a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/65229><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月末的动荡或是10月的常态,四大风险冲击下,10月的市场恐异常动荡。\n9月份已经临近尾声,近期市场波动明显加剧,而投资者即将迎来更为动荡的10月。除了美国大选之外,还有另外三大风险也将在10月份集中爆发,这些风险将对市场造成怎样的冲击?投资者该如何应对?\n10月不可忽视的四大风险\n\n风险一:小心美国大选再次上演“十月惊奇”重要程度:✮✮✮✮✮\n\n10月份最重磅的风险事件无疑就是美国大选的相关动态...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/65229\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/65229","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115203454","content_text":"9月末的动荡或是10月的常态,四大风险冲击下,10月的市场恐异常动荡。\n9月份已经临近尾声,近期市场波动明显加剧,而投资者即将迎来更为动荡的10月。除了美国大选之外,还有另外三大风险也将在10月份集中爆发,这些风险将对市场造成怎样的冲击?投资者该如何应对?\n10月不可忽视的四大风险\n\n风险一:小心美国大选再次上演“十月惊奇”重要程度:✮✮✮✮✮\n\n10月份最重磅的风险事件无疑就是美国大选的相关动态,虽然大选日期是在11月3日,但两党之间的竞争早已进入白热化,投资者也开始提前布局。\n目前已知的10月份跟美国大选相关的动态就是剩下的三次大选辩论(一次副总统辩论和两次总统辩论),这几场辩论的结果可能会影响特朗普和拜登的选民支持率。\n这次美国大选前,美国两党的政治分歧达到近20年来的罕见程度,而且两位总统候选人的民调支持率的差距正在缩小,因此人们更为关注今年是否还会出现“十月惊奇”,进而影响大选结果。\n所谓的“十月惊奇”,是一个专门针对美国大选的政治术语,指的是在10月份故意制造一些新闻事件,以影响大选的结果。由于美国大选的日期是11月3日,因此10月份发生的事件对选民的决策有很大的影响。\n那么下个月可能成为“10月惊奇”的风险事件有哪些呢?\n会发现还真的不少,可以分为美国国内和国际两个方面来看。\n\n 美国国内能够成为“十月惊奇”的风险事件很多,例如\n 新冠疫苗、大法官的任命、还有潜在的政府关门、特朗普漏税、美国暴乱等等。国际方面,\n 有人猜测特朗普可能会选择同伊朗开战来影响选情。之前美国分别撮合以色列与阿联酋、巴林建立外交关系,也被认为有孤立伊朗的意图。而且近期美国又开始对伊朗实施了新的制裁。\n\n不过,也有分析指出,鉴于今年邮寄选票比较多,“十月惊奇”的影响力可能会有所打折扣。\n美国克里斯托弗纽波特大学政治学系学者孙太一就表示,因为邮寄选票多了,很多选民在10月底就把票投了,因此就算到最后一刻再搞出个大新闻,其影响力要比往常小得多。\n不管怎样,投资者都应该做好准备,如果美国真的在大选前搞出一个甚至多个“十月惊奇”出来,那么市场免不了经历一番动荡。\n\n风险二:疫苗进展——千亿美元市场的竞赛重要程度:✮✮✮✮\n\n除了大选外,疫情的相关动态也是10月份的一个重大风险。自5月份以来,人们对疫情的关注度就开始下降,但是,它却一直没有翻篇。一位医学专家将疫情比作美国西部的森林大火,即使旧的地方已经扑灭了火势,但一些新的地方又起火了,而且没人知道下个爆发的地方会是哪里。\n投资者对新增确诊人数或者死亡人数这些数据本身已经并不敏感,对市场影响更大的是跟疫苗研发相关的消息。\n疫苗的竞争可能会在10月份成为焦点。10月的某个时候,投资者可能会看到正在进行的第三阶段重大试验的初步数据,或者至少会得到一份进展报告。届时辉瑞和BioNTech将获得3万人的试验数据;Moderna的数据也可能很快出炉。辉瑞的高管们已将临床试验扩大至4.4万名参与者,他们称到10月底就能知道他们的疫苗是否有效。\n\n特朗普近期也频繁表示,他希望疫苗能在大选前投入使用。如果任何一项试验出现问题,都可能引发市场动荡。\n目前,疫苗领域的投资者资金规模超过1000亿美元,投资者的决策很容易受到疫苗研制结果的影响。SVB Leerink的杰弗里·博格斯(Geoffrey Porges)博士表示,这一数字大致反映了股市对正在研制的疫苗市场的估值。\n投资者应该小心防范疫苗相关消息引起的市场波动。因为只要跟疫苗沾边的消息,都会引起股市的剧烈波动。例如,生物技术公司Moderna在5月中旬称对其研制的疫苗进行了小规模的初步试验,该公司的市值在一天之内飙升了49亿美元,但紧接着又在一天内下跌了20亿美元。\n当疫苗公司公布后期试验数据后,投资者应密切留意研制疫苗的公司的股票波动。是利好还是利空取决于试验数据的表现。不过,投资者不应期待疫苗会是完美无缺的,应该降低一些期望值。\n\n风险三:不容乐观的美股财报季重要程度:✮✮✮✮\n\n10月中旬即将开始的美股财报季也将是一个重大风险事件。美股新一轮财报季将在10月第二周拉开帷幕,届时料在市场上掀起更多波澜。\n在上一个财报季中,美股公司的表现普遍好于分析师的预期,标普500指数成份股公司中有超过80%的公司好于相对较低的预期。不过,研究公司FactSet的数据显示,标普500指数成份股收益下跌了近32%,从这数据来看,美股的表现并不理想。\n第三季度的情况也好不到哪里去,FactSet预计第三季度的平均收益将下降21.8%。这将是过去七个季度中美国大公司每股收益下滑的第六个季度。\n对投资者来说可能更糟的是,FactSet预计金融业的业绩表现将排在第四,有两个原因。首先,因为当金融股陷入困境时,传统的刺激措施很难使金融股维持更大幅度的反弹。其次,因为大型银行将在10月中旬率先发布业绩,可能为其他所有银行定下基调。\n当财报季开始时,所有人的目光可能都会先集中在摩根大通、高盛和美国银行等投行身上,投资者可能会留意这些投行的首席执行官对经济的看法。\n航空业也是备受关注的一个行业,随着第一轮刺激资金耗尽,投资者应考虑关注这些航空公司的现金状况。如果美国政府迟迟未能提供新的援助,那么陷入困境的航空股可能会遭受另一次打击。\n\n风险四:飓风最多的10月重要程度:✮✮✮\n\n2020年的飓风季可能会被载入美国历史,因为今年的风暴多到美国的气象学者已经找不到名字来命名,最终不得不使用希腊字母。\n截至9月23日,飓风季节还剩两个多月,大西洋已经出现了23个已命名的风暴——大约是整个飓风季节长期平均水平的两倍。美国气象局预计,下一个飓风活跃时期将从10月7日至10日开始。有迹象显示,10月份美国的飓风活动可能会继续增强。\n10月份恰恰又是美国历史上飓风最强劲的月份,往年许多破坏力惊人的飓风都是发生在10月份。\n例如2018年的“迈克尔飓风”,2005年10月的威尔玛飓风目前仍是有记录以来大西洋上最强的飓风。还有1998年的Mitch、1995年的Opal和1954年的Hazel等等。对于像佛罗里达这样的州来说,十月是飓风季中最危险的月份。自1950年以来,有112场飓风袭击了这个州,其中38场发生在10月份。\n飓风对市场的影响更多是体现在油市方面,例如,之前受飓风“萨利”影响,美国墨西哥湾区大约49.71万桶/日或26.87%的原油产能被关闭。上周,由于热带风暴\"贝塔”影响,墨西哥湾“火星\"平台的钻井作业已经暂停,所有工作人员从墨西哥湾西部的佩迪多撤离。\n当飓风来袭时,其对原油市场的影响主要可以从三个方面去把握:\n\n1、海上石油产量;2、炼油厂断电和损坏;3、原油进出口是否停滞。\n\n当然,飓风对油价的影响要看它的破坏程度。例如,当年的卡特里娜飓风令美国墨西哥湾地区92%的原油生产和83%的天然气生产暂停。如果10月份飓风令美国原油设施遭受严重破坏,油价可能会获得提振。\n市场最动荡的10月\n在上述风险事件中,投资者们最关注的无疑就是美国大选了。投资者对有争议的美国总统大选的风险越来越紧张,随着对冲市场动荡的成本上升,投资者加大了为可能出现的市场波动期做准备的力度。\n值得注意的是,10月份原本就是美股一年当中最动荡的月份,下图显示了1896年以来道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数每月日变化的标准差。10月份为1.43%,远高于平均水平1.09%。\n\n而且这个数据已经剔除了一些异常的年份,比如美股历史上两次最严重的崩盘——1929年和1987年,这两次美股崩盘都发生在10月份,但这两年的数据并没有包含在内。\n长期以来,与VIX波动指数挂钩的期货反映出,投资者担心大选结果可能会引发争议,导致市场出现异常波动。分析人士表示,鉴于此前的大选投票很少引起市场动荡,因此投资者对此比较重视。\n对冲基金Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers的首席投资官乔迪·维瑟(Jordi Visser)表示,对冲美国大选结果的成本越来越高,由于防范市场动荡的对冲成本高昂,这可能反而促使一些投资者大幅减持风险资产。\n10月和11月到期的VIX期货合约水平已从仅10天前的约30点,攀升至周一收盘的31点和33点,相对于目前波动率指数的VIX现货(26点),已经有了很大的溢价。投资者可以利用这些合约对冲市场动荡或从中获利。\n\n同样,12月VIX期货合约价格已从10天前的30点攀升至周一晚间的31点。六个月前,该合约价格约为26点。明年1月份的VIX期货合约还反映出,选举后的政治动荡可能会持续到2021年。\n高盛(Goldman Sachs)衍生品分析师Rocky Fishman指出,VIX期货交易量低迷,表明银行不愿出售可用于对冲股市动荡的金融产品,而这可能加剧了上述提到的对冲成本上升的情况。\n投资者还开始押注,美国大选引发的市场动荡可能会蔓延至其它地区。欧洲和日本的类似隐含波动率指数——Vstoxx和日经平均波动率指数,两者10月和11月期货合约在过去一个月里也出现了显著攀升。\n\n摩根士丹利美股策略师主管Michael 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$通用汽车(GM)$ $微博(WB)$ $Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $美光科技(MU)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $京东(JD)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $谷歌A(GOOGL)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$ 【亚马逊式的报复:错发1万本书到白宫】 特朗普与亚马逊的恩怨由来已久。今年3月底,特朗普开始集中火力向亚马逊“开炮”,令后者市值一度蒸发536亿美元。近日,亚马逊以一种非常独特的方式回应了川普。联邦调查局(FBI)前局长詹姆斯·科米(James Comey)出书曝与特朗普总统的矛盾,新书还没正式上市,电商亚马逊就“错发”了1万本到白宫,让特朗普大为光火。 据《纽约客》网站报道,亚马逊12日将1万本科米的自传“错发”到白宫,书堆满了白宫走廊,特朗普十分愤怒,甚至对正在赞扬他的副总统彭斯(Mike Pence)发脾气。亚马逊12日道歉称这是一次“令人遗憾的意外”。亚马逊创始人贝索斯(Jeff Bezos)表示,他“完全不知道”那1万本书是如何进入白宫的,他建议特朗普按照亚马逊网站上的退货程序退回不需要的商品。 “你可以在家里打印退货标签。”贝索斯说,“工作人员应该可以在两周内——最多三周——把这些书从白宫取走。”贝索斯还称,将这些书运回公司仓库对亚马逊来说不会太贵,因为“我们在邮费上得到了惊人的优惠”,暗讽特朗普之前抨击亚马逊让美国邮政(USPS)损失了数十亿美元。","listText":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ $通用汽车(GM)$ $微博(WB)$ $Lumentum Holdings Inc.(LITE)$ $亚马逊(AMZN)$ $美光科技(MU)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ $京东(JD)$ $Facebook(FB)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$ $谷歌A(GOOGL)$ $谷歌(GOOG)$ 【亚马逊式的报复:错发1万本书到白宫】 特朗普与亚马逊的恩怨由来已久。今年3月底,特朗普开始集中火力向亚马逊“开炮”,令后者市值一度蒸发536亿美元。近日,亚马逊以一种非常独特的方式回应了川普。联邦调查局(FBI)前局长詹姆斯·科米(James 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