好了的个人主页 - 老虎社区

好了

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2020-09-30

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-09-30

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看

风险预警！10月美股市场不可忽视的四大风险

2020-02-12

$慧择控股(HUIZ)$ 什么时候开盘？

2018-06-17

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$马云出场！崔永元黑名单放出终极大Boss？

2018-06-17

http://inews.ifeng.com/58762637/news.shtml

2018-05-15

$苹果(AAPL)$今天又发生了什么?_?

2018-04-21

真滴么👻

@重仓科技股:【亚马逊式的报复:错发1万本书到白宫】

2018-03-29

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$臭不要脸的，每次别人盘前没动，你就先涨，真当散户是猪🐷阿

2018-03-21

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$美联储要加息是利空吧？怎么还都涨❓

2018-03-14

$红黄蓝(RYB)$都没人玩了还装(～o～)Y，搞点分红刺激下吧。

2018-03-09

$红黄蓝(RYB)$这个红黄蓝什么时候分红？

2018-03-07

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$盘后坑爹啊

2018-03-06

$网易(NTES)$这个盘前交易怎么有时没有呢？

2018-03-05

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$大单买入比卖出多这么多，股价还下跌？

2018-02-23

$高通(QCOM)$尾盘大量卖出的，盘后价格又涨上去了，这是什么套路？请教股友们😓

2018-02-16

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$请教下各位朋友，有用香港卡出入金的吗？具体是那种的，怎么办理？谢谢🙏🙏

2018-02-09

$苹果(AAPL)$今天苹果有分红？😳

2018-02-02

$红黄蓝(RYB)$庄家拉不动了吧？

2018-02-02

怎么看往年分红呢？

2018-02-01

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$请教下:阿里有分红吗？在几月份，哪里能看到往年的数据？

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19:28","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"风险预警！10月美股市场不可忽视的四大风险","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115203454","media":"金十数据","summary":"9月末的动荡或是10月的常态，四大风险冲击下，10月的市场恐异常动荡。\n9月份已经临近尾声，近期市场波动明显加剧，而投资者即将迎来更为动荡的10月。除了美国大选之外，还有另外三大风险也将在10月份集中","content":"<p>9月末的动荡或是10月的常态，四大风险冲击下，10月的市场恐异常动荡。</p>\n<p>9月份已经临近尾声，近期市场波动明显加剧，而投资者即将迎来更为动荡的10月。除了美国大选之外，还有另外三大风险也将在10月份集中爆发，这些风险将对市场造成怎样的冲击？投资者该如何应对？</p>\n<p><b>10月不可忽视的四大风险</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>风险一：小心美国大选再次上演“十月惊奇”重要程度：✮✮✮✮✮</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>10月份最重磅的风险事件无疑就是美国大选的相关动态，虽然大选日期是在11月3日，但两党之间的竞争早已进入白热化，投资者也开始提前布局。</p>\n<p>目前已知的10月份跟美国大选相关的动态就是剩下的三次大选辩论（一次副总统辩论和两次总统辩论），这几场辩论的结果可能会影响特朗普和拜登的选民支持率。</p>\n<p>这次美国大选前，美国两党的政治分歧达到近20年来的罕见程度，而且两位总统候选人的民调支持率的差距正在缩小，因此人们更为关注<b>今年是否还会出现“十月惊奇”，进而影响大选结果。</b></p>\n<p><b>所谓的“十月惊奇”，是一个专门针对美国大选的政治术语，指的是在10月份故意制造一些新闻事件，以影响大选的结果。</b>由于美国大选的日期是11月3日，因此10月份发生的事件对选民的决策有很大的影响。</p>\n<p>那么下个月可能成为“10月惊奇”的风险事件有哪些呢？</p>\n<p>会发现还真的不少，可以分为美国国内和国际两个方面来看。</p>\n<blockquote>\n 美国国内能够成为“十月惊奇”的风险事件很多，例如\n <b>新冠疫苗、大法官的任命、还有潜在的政府关门、特朗普漏税、美国暴乱等等。</b>国际方面，\n <b>有人猜测特朗普可能会选择同伊朗开战来影响选情</b>。之前美国分别撮合以色列与阿联酋、巴林建立外交关系，也被认为有孤立伊朗的意图。而且近期美国又开始对伊朗实施了新的制裁。\n</blockquote>\n<p>不过，也有分析指出，鉴于今年邮寄选票比较多，“十月惊奇”的影响力可能会有所打折扣。</p>\n<p>美国克里斯托弗纽波特大学政治学系学者孙太一就表示，因为邮寄选票多了，很多选民在10月底就把票投了，因此就算到最后一刻再搞出个大新闻，其影响力要比往常小得多。</p>\n<p>不管怎样，投资者都应该做好准备，如果美国真的在大选前搞出一个甚至多个“十月惊奇”出来，那么市场免不了经历一番动荡。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>风险二：疫苗进展——千亿美元市场的竞赛重要程度：✮✮✮✮</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>除了大选外，疫情的相关动态也是10月份的一个重大风险。自5月份以来，人们对疫情的关注度就开始下降，但是，它却一直没有翻篇。一位医学专家将疫情比作美国西部的森林大火，即使旧的地方已经扑灭了火势，但一些新的地方又起火了，而且没人知道下个爆发的地方会是哪里。</p>\n<p>投资者对新增确诊人数或者死亡人数这些数据本身已经并不敏感，对市场影响更大的是跟疫苗研发相关的消息。</p>\n<p><b>疫苗的竞争可能会在10月份成为焦点。10月的某个时候，投资者可能会看到正在进行的第三阶段重大试验的初步数据</b>，或者至少会得到一份进展报告。届时辉瑞和BioNTech将获得3万人的试验数据；Moderna的数据也可能很快出炉。<b>辉瑞的高管们已将临床试验扩大至4.4万名参与者，他们称到10月底就能知道他们的疫苗是否有效。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9b704ac74c1d0ae3c509127795b583a2\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"1015\"></p>\n<p>特朗普近期也频繁表示，他希望疫苗能在大选前投入使用。如果任何一项试验出现问题，都可能引发市场动荡。</p>\n<p>目前，<b>疫苗领域的投资者资金规模超过1000亿美元，投资者的决策很容易受到疫苗研制结果的影响</b>。SVB Leerink的杰弗里·博格斯（Geoffrey Porges）博士表示，这一数字大致反映了股市对正在研制的疫苗市场的估值。</p>\n<p>投资者应该小心防范疫苗相关消息引起的市场波动。<b>因为只要跟疫苗沾边的消息，都会引起股市的剧烈波动。</b>例如，生物技术公司Moderna在5月中旬称对其研制的疫苗进行了小规模的初步试验，该公司的市值在一天之内飙升了49亿美元，但紧接着又在一天内下跌了20亿美元。</p>\n<p>当疫苗公司公布后期试验数据后，投资者应密切留意研制疫苗的公司的股票波动。是利好还是利空取决于试验数据的表现。不过，投资者不应期待疫苗会是完美无缺的，应该降低一些期望值。</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>风险三：不容乐观的美股财报季重要程度：✮✮✮✮</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>10月中旬即将开始的美股财报季也将是一个重大风险事件。<b>美股新一轮财报季将在10月第二周拉开帷幕，届时料在市场上掀起更多波澜。</b></p>\n<p>在上一个财报季中，美股公司的表现普遍好于分析师的预期，标普500指数成份股公司中有超过80%的公司好于相对较低的预期。不过，研究公司FactSet的数据显示，标普500指数成份股收益下跌了近32%，从这数据来看，美股的表现并不理想。</p>\n<p>第三季度的情况也好不到哪里去，<b>FactSet预计第三季度的平均收益将下降21.8%。这将是过去七个季度中美国大公司每股收益下滑的第六个季度。</b></p>\n<p>对投资者来说可能更糟的是，FactSet预计金融业的业绩表现将排在第四，有两个原因。首先，因为当金融股陷入困境时，传统的刺激措施很难使金融股维持更大幅度的反弹。其次，因为大型银行将在10月中旬率先发布业绩，可能为其他所有银行定下基调。</p>\n<p>当财报季开始时，所有人的目光可能都会先集中在摩根大通、高盛和美国银行等投行身上，投资者可能会留意这些投行的首席执行官对经济的看法。</p>\n<p>航空业也是备受关注的一个行业，<b>随着第一轮刺激资金耗尽，投资者应考虑关注这些航空公司的现金状况。如果美国政府迟迟未能提供新的援助，那么陷入困境的航空股可能会遭受另一次打击。</b></p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>风险四：飓风最多的10月重要程度：✮✮✮</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>2020年的飓风季可能会被载入美国历史，因为今年的风暴多到美国的气象学者已经找不到名字来命名，最终不得不使用希腊字母。</p>\n<p><b>截至9月23日，飓风季节还剩两个多月，大西洋已经出现了23个已命名的风暴——大约是整个飓风季节长期平均水平的两倍。</b>美国气象局预计，下一个飓风活跃时期将从10月7日至10日开始。<b>有迹象显示，10月份美国的飓风活动可能会继续增强。</b></p>\n<p>10月份恰恰又是美国历史上飓风最强劲的月份，往年许多破坏力惊人的飓风都是发生在10月份。</p>\n<p>例如2018年的“迈克尔飓风”，2005年10月的威尔玛飓风目前仍是有记录以来大西洋上最强的飓风。还有1998年的Mitch、1995年的Opal和1954年的Hazel等等。对于像佛罗里达这样的州来说，十月是飓风季中最危险的月份。自1950年以来，有112场飓风袭击了这个州，其中38场发生在10月份。</p>\n<p>飓风对市场的影响更多是体现在油市方面，例如，<b>之前受飓风“萨利”影响，美国墨西哥湾区大约49.71万桶/日或26.87%的原油产能被关闭。上周，由于热带风暴\"贝塔”影响，墨西哥湾“火星\"平台的钻井作业已经暂停，所有工作人员从墨西哥湾西部的佩迪多撤离。</b></p>\n<p>当飓风来袭时，其对原油市场的影响主要可以从三个方面去把握：</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>1、海上石油产量；2、炼油厂断电和损坏；3、原油进出口是否停滞。</b>\n</blockquote>\n<p>当然，飓风对油价的影响要看它的破坏程度。例如，当年的卡特里娜飓风令美国墨西哥湾地区92%的原油生产和83%的天然气生产暂停。如果10月份飓风令美国原油设施遭受严重破坏，油价可能会获得提振。</p>\n<p><b>市场最动荡的10月</b></p>\n<p>在上述风险事件中，投资者们最关注的无疑就是美国大选了。投资者对有争议的美国总统大选的风险越来越紧张，随着对冲市场动荡的成本上升，投资者加大了为可能出现的市场波动期做准备的力度。</p>\n<p>值得注意的是，<b>10月份原本就是美股一年当中最动荡的月份，下图显示了1896年以来道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数每月日变化的标准差。10月份为1.43%，远高于平均水平1.09%。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60a7e72330a60529bcd2f3ca24b6bfa5\" tg-width=\"1320\" tg-height=\"742\"></p>\n<p>而且这个数据已经剔除了一些异常的年份，比如美股历史上两次最严重的崩盘——<b>1929年和1987年，这两次美股崩盘都发生在10月份，但这两年的数据并没有包含在内。</b></p>\n<p>长期以来，与VIX波动指数挂钩的期货反映出，投资者担心大选结果可能会引发争议，导致市场出现异常波动。分析人士表示，鉴于此前的大选投票很少引起市场动荡，因此投资者对此比较重视。</p>\n<p>对冲基金Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers的首席投资官乔迪·维瑟（Jordi Visser）表示，<b>对冲美国大选结果的成本越来越高，由于防范市场动荡的对冲成本高昂，这可能反而促使一些投资者大幅减持风险资产。</b></p>\n<p><b>10月和11月到期的VIX期货合约水平已从仅10天前的约30点，攀升至周一收盘的31点和33点，相对于目前波动率指数的VIX现货（26点），已经有了很大的溢价。</b>投资者可以利用这些合约对冲市场动荡或从中获利。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/158c4c83591c61309daf8ca4a28bac04\" tg-width=\"1105\" tg-height=\"712\"></p>\n<p>同样，12月VIX期货合约价格已从10天前的30点攀升至周一晚间的31点。六个月前，该合约价格约为26点。明年1月份的VIX期货合约还反映出，选举后的政治动荡可能会持续到2021年。</p>\n<p>高盛（Goldman Sachs）衍生品分析师Rocky Fishman指出，<b>VIX期货交易量低迷，表明银行不愿出售可用于对冲股市动荡的金融产品，而这可能加剧了上述提到的对冲成本上升的情况。</b></p>\n<p>投资者还开始押注，美国大选引发的市场动荡可能会蔓延至其它地区。<b>欧洲和日本的类似隐含波动率指数——Vstoxx和日经平均波动率指数，两者10月和11月期货合约在过去一个月里也出现了显著攀升。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9f6690cfdd432b2ae572484dd288f3d\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"717\"></p>\n<p>摩根士丹利美股策略师主管Michael Wilson近期也发出警告，<b>未来5周的市场波动性将变得更高，交易环境将更加艰难。</b></p>\n<p>而花旗、瑞银等投行则在上述风险来临前部署黄金。瑞银近日警告客户，由于美国大选结果不定，且最终日期不断临近，现在是配置黄金的最佳时机。花旗上周也做出预测，黄金可能在年底前创下纪录新高，部分原因就是美国总统大选带来的风险。</p>","source":"jssj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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}\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n风险预警！10月美股市场不可忽视的四大风险\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2020-09-29 19:28 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/details/65229><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>9月末的动荡或是10月的常态，四大风险冲击下，10月的市场恐异常动荡。\n9月份已经临近尾声，近期市场波动明显加剧，而投资者即将迎来更为动荡的10月。除了美国大选之外，还有另外三大风险也将在10月份集中爆发，这些风险将对市场造成怎样的冲击？投资者该如何应对？\n10月不可忽视的四大风险\n\n风险一：小心美国大选再次上演“十月惊奇”重要程度：✮✮✮✮✮\n\n10月份最重磅的风险事件无疑就是美国大选的相关动态...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/65229\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/details/65229","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115203454","content_text":"9月末的动荡或是10月的常态，四大风险冲击下，10月的市场恐异常动荡。\n9月份已经临近尾声，近期市场波动明显加剧，而投资者即将迎来更为动荡的10月。除了美国大选之外，还有另外三大风险也将在10月份集中爆发，这些风险将对市场造成怎样的冲击？投资者该如何应对？\n10月不可忽视的四大风险\n\n风险一：小心美国大选再次上演“十月惊奇”重要程度：✮✮✮✮✮\n\n10月份最重磅的风险事件无疑就是美国大选的相关动态，虽然大选日期是在11月3日，但两党之间的竞争早已进入白热化，投资者也开始提前布局。\n目前已知的10月份跟美国大选相关的动态就是剩下的三次大选辩论（一次副总统辩论和两次总统辩论），这几场辩论的结果可能会影响特朗普和拜登的选民支持率。\n这次美国大选前，美国两党的政治分歧达到近20年来的罕见程度，而且两位总统候选人的民调支持率的差距正在缩小，因此人们更为关注今年是否还会出现“十月惊奇”，进而影响大选结果。\n所谓的“十月惊奇”，是一个专门针对美国大选的政治术语，指的是在10月份故意制造一些新闻事件，以影响大选的结果。由于美国大选的日期是11月3日，因此10月份发生的事件对选民的决策有很大的影响。\n那么下个月可能成为“10月惊奇”的风险事件有哪些呢？\n会发现还真的不少，可以分为美国国内和国际两个方面来看。\n\n 美国国内能够成为“十月惊奇”的风险事件很多，例如\n 新冠疫苗、大法官的任命、还有潜在的政府关门、特朗普漏税、美国暴乱等等。国际方面，\n 有人猜测特朗普可能会选择同伊朗开战来影响选情。之前美国分别撮合以色列与阿联酋、巴林建立外交关系，也被认为有孤立伊朗的意图。而且近期美国又开始对伊朗实施了新的制裁。\n\n不过，也有分析指出，鉴于今年邮寄选票比较多，“十月惊奇”的影响力可能会有所打折扣。\n美国克里斯托弗纽波特大学政治学系学者孙太一就表示，因为邮寄选票多了，很多选民在10月底就把票投了，因此就算到最后一刻再搞出个大新闻，其影响力要比往常小得多。\n不管怎样，投资者都应该做好准备，如果美国真的在大选前搞出一个甚至多个“十月惊奇”出来，那么市场免不了经历一番动荡。\n\n风险二：疫苗进展——千亿美元市场的竞赛重要程度：✮✮✮✮\n\n除了大选外，疫情的相关动态也是10月份的一个重大风险。自5月份以来，人们对疫情的关注度就开始下降，但是，它却一直没有翻篇。一位医学专家将疫情比作美国西部的森林大火，即使旧的地方已经扑灭了火势，但一些新的地方又起火了，而且没人知道下个爆发的地方会是哪里。\n投资者对新增确诊人数或者死亡人数这些数据本身已经并不敏感，对市场影响更大的是跟疫苗研发相关的消息。\n疫苗的竞争可能会在10月份成为焦点。10月的某个时候，投资者可能会看到正在进行的第三阶段重大试验的初步数据，或者至少会得到一份进展报告。届时辉瑞和BioNTech将获得3万人的试验数据；Moderna的数据也可能很快出炉。辉瑞的高管们已将临床试验扩大至4.4万名参与者，他们称到10月底就能知道他们的疫苗是否有效。\n\n特朗普近期也频繁表示，他希望疫苗能在大选前投入使用。如果任何一项试验出现问题，都可能引发市场动荡。\n目前，疫苗领域的投资者资金规模超过1000亿美元，投资者的决策很容易受到疫苗研制结果的影响。SVB Leerink的杰弗里·博格斯（Geoffrey Porges）博士表示，这一数字大致反映了股市对正在研制的疫苗市场的估值。\n投资者应该小心防范疫苗相关消息引起的市场波动。因为只要跟疫苗沾边的消息，都会引起股市的剧烈波动。例如，生物技术公司Moderna在5月中旬称对其研制的疫苗进行了小规模的初步试验，该公司的市值在一天之内飙升了49亿美元，但紧接着又在一天内下跌了20亿美元。\n当疫苗公司公布后期试验数据后，投资者应密切留意研制疫苗的公司的股票波动。是利好还是利空取决于试验数据的表现。不过，投资者不应期待疫苗会是完美无缺的，应该降低一些期望值。\n\n风险三：不容乐观的美股财报季重要程度：✮✮✮✮\n\n10月中旬即将开始的美股财报季也将是一个重大风险事件。美股新一轮财报季将在10月第二周拉开帷幕，届时料在市场上掀起更多波澜。\n在上一个财报季中，美股公司的表现普遍好于分析师的预期，标普500指数成份股公司中有超过80%的公司好于相对较低的预期。不过，研究公司FactSet的数据显示，标普500指数成份股收益下跌了近32%，从这数据来看，美股的表现并不理想。\n第三季度的情况也好不到哪里去，FactSet预计第三季度的平均收益将下降21.8%。这将是过去七个季度中美国大公司每股收益下滑的第六个季度。\n对投资者来说可能更糟的是，FactSet预计金融业的业绩表现将排在第四，有两个原因。首先，因为当金融股陷入困境时，传统的刺激措施很难使金融股维持更大幅度的反弹。其次，因为大型银行将在10月中旬率先发布业绩，可能为其他所有银行定下基调。\n当财报季开始时，所有人的目光可能都会先集中在摩根大通、高盛和美国银行等投行身上，投资者可能会留意这些投行的首席执行官对经济的看法。\n航空业也是备受关注的一个行业，随着第一轮刺激资金耗尽，投资者应考虑关注这些航空公司的现金状况。如果美国政府迟迟未能提供新的援助，那么陷入困境的航空股可能会遭受另一次打击。\n\n风险四：飓风最多的10月重要程度：✮✮✮\n\n2020年的飓风季可能会被载入美国历史，因为今年的风暴多到美国的气象学者已经找不到名字来命名，最终不得不使用希腊字母。\n截至9月23日，飓风季节还剩两个多月，大西洋已经出现了23个已命名的风暴——大约是整个飓风季节长期平均水平的两倍。美国气象局预计，下一个飓风活跃时期将从10月7日至10日开始。有迹象显示，10月份美国的飓风活动可能会继续增强。\n10月份恰恰又是美国历史上飓风最强劲的月份，往年许多破坏力惊人的飓风都是发生在10月份。\n例如2018年的“迈克尔飓风”，2005年10月的威尔玛飓风目前仍是有记录以来大西洋上最强的飓风。还有1998年的Mitch、1995年的Opal和1954年的Hazel等等。对于像佛罗里达这样的州来说，十月是飓风季中最危险的月份。自1950年以来，有112场飓风袭击了这个州，其中38场发生在10月份。\n飓风对市场的影响更多是体现在油市方面，例如，之前受飓风“萨利”影响，美国墨西哥湾区大约49.71万桶/日或26.87%的原油产能被关闭。上周，由于热带风暴\"贝塔”影响，墨西哥湾“火星\"平台的钻井作业已经暂停，所有工作人员从墨西哥湾西部的佩迪多撤离。\n当飓风来袭时，其对原油市场的影响主要可以从三个方面去把握：\n\n1、海上石油产量；2、炼油厂断电和损坏；3、原油进出口是否停滞。\n\n当然，飓风对油价的影响要看它的破坏程度。例如，当年的卡特里娜飓风令美国墨西哥湾地区92%的原油生产和83%的天然气生产暂停。如果10月份飓风令美国原油设施遭受严重破坏，油价可能会获得提振。\n市场最动荡的10月\n在上述风险事件中，投资者们最关注的无疑就是美国大选了。投资者对有争议的美国总统大选的风险越来越紧张，随着对冲市场动荡的成本上升，投资者加大了为可能出现的市场波动期做准备的力度。\n值得注意的是，10月份原本就是美股一年当中最动荡的月份，下图显示了1896年以来道琼斯工业股票平均价格指数每月日变化的标准差。10月份为1.43%，远高于平均水平1.09%。\n\n而且这个数据已经剔除了一些异常的年份，比如美股历史上两次最严重的崩盘——1929年和1987年，这两次美股崩盘都发生在10月份，但这两年的数据并没有包含在内。\n长期以来，与VIX波动指数挂钩的期货反映出，投资者担心大选结果可能会引发争议，导致市场出现异常波动。分析人士表示，鉴于此前的大选投票很少引起市场动荡，因此投资者对此比较重视。\n对冲基金Weiss Multi-Strategy Advisers的首席投资官乔迪·维瑟（Jordi Visser）表示，对冲美国大选结果的成本越来越高，由于防范市场动荡的对冲成本高昂，这可能反而促使一些投资者大幅减持风险资产。\n10月和11月到期的VIX期货合约水平已从仅10天前的约30点，攀升至周一收盘的31点和33点，相对于目前波动率指数的VIX现货（26点），已经有了很大的溢价。投资者可以利用这些合约对冲市场动荡或从中获利。\n\n同样，12月VIX期货合约价格已从10天前的30点攀升至周一晚间的31点。六个月前，该合约价格约为26点。明年1月份的VIX期货合约还反映出，选举后的政治动荡可能会持续到2021年。\n高盛（Goldman Sachs）衍生品分析师Rocky Fishman指出，VIX期货交易量低迷，表明银行不愿出售可用于对冲股市动荡的金融产品，而这可能加剧了上述提到的对冲成本上升的情况。\n投资者还开始押注，美国大选引发的市场动荡可能会蔓延至其它地区。欧洲和日本的类似隐含波动率指数——Vstoxx和日经平均波动率指数，两者10月和11月期货合约在过去一个月里也出现了显著攀升。\n\n摩根士丹利美股策略师主管Michael 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