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维克多123

维克多123

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2019-06-04

$康希诺生物-B(06185)$是不是市值错了？这股就跟期权一样，只要一样疫苗商业化，就能盈利

10-03

怪不得

10-03

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

NANO Nuclear Energy: The Concept Is Very Promising, But Can They Pull It Off?

10-03

受益匪浅

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-07

良心预测

十年翻一番？大摩称未来十年中国消费将出现巨变

2018-05-11

请问一下老虎证券怎么做大宗期货商品？

2018-03-13

好

@88Meeting:港股A股的投研工具箱和最新市场信息查询网站

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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"htmlText":"怪不得","listText":"怪不得","text":"怪不得","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaed4732414f87d3e2cf8261fa6b5d2f","width":"1088","height":"1211"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356161671950600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356151002488944,"gmtCreate":1727960398426,"gmtModify":1727960400730,"author":{"id":"3473910588676310","authorId":"3473910588676310","name":"维克多123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0be78881a5953fc13169c6cb881089","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473910588676310","authorIdStr":"3473910588676310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356151002488944","repostId":"2462992888","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2462992888","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724675400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2462992888?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-26 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NANO Nuclear Energy: The Concept Is Very Promising, But Can They Pull It Off?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462992888","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NANO Nuclear Energy is designing small-scale nuclear fission reactors, Zeus and Odin, for various applications.The company operates in the microreactor market, which is smaller than the SMR market, wi","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NANO Nuclear Energy is designing small-scale nuclear fission reactors, Zeus and Odin, for various applications.</li><li>The company operates in the microreactor market, which is smaller than the SMR market, with plans for portable and scalable reactors.</li><li>Most of the competition is offering significantly larger reactors so it is likely to have its own niche, but reactor sales are not likely this decade.</li><li>Other business lines are also mostly in the design stage although more likely to materialize earlier, still the package is difficult to assess from an investor point of view.</li><li>It should be noted that the company has no problem attracting private capital.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1119px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Jezperklauzen</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>NANO Nuclear Energy Overview</h2> <p>NANO Nuclear Energy (<span>NASDAQ:NNE</span>) is a company that is designing two small-scale nuclear fission reactors or so-called microreactors. These are still in the design phase and commercial products are not likely to emerge this decade.</p> <p>Other business lines are likely to appear sooner, but the economics are difficult to assess, so it's hard from an investor point of view to formulate projections given the lack of hard data. This is more for specialists who can assess the viability of the company's reactor designs.</p> <p>Given the significant amount of private finance the company receives, there seem to be plenty of such people, which should provide a modicum of confidence.</p> <h2>Business</h2> <p>The company has four key business lines:</p> <ul> <li>Micro Nuclear Reactor Business; developing next-generation portable nuclear microreactors, the Zeus and the Odin.</li> <li>Fuel Fabrication Business; developing a domestic<span> HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) fuel fabrication facility.</span> </li> <li>Fuel Transportation Business scheduled for 2026.</li> <li>Nuclear Consultation Services, either through acquisition or internal development.</li> </ul> <h2><strong>Microreactors</strong></h2> <p>The market for SMRs (small modular reactors, that is, modules up to 300MWe capacity per unit) has players like NuScale (SMR), which already has a certified design.</p> <p>Its Power Module is designed to generate 77MWe per module, and can be deployed in configurations of 4, 6, or 12 modules.</p> <p>The SMR market is actually quite lively as there are several players with plans in this space (Carbon Credits):</p> <blockquote><p>SMRs are under construction or in the licensing stage in various countries including Japan, Canada, China, Russia, UK, and the United States. Over 80 commercial SMR designs worldwide target diverse outputs and applications such as electricity, hybrid energy systems, heating, water desalination, and industrial steam.</p></blockquote> <p>One should keep in mind that most of these pertain to the SMR (small modular reactors) market while Nano operates in a segment of this, the microreactors (up to 10MWe), which are much smaller still and basically a replacement for diesel generators.</p> <p>Much of the SMR market offers much larger modules compared to Nano, so these can't be considered real competition.</p> <p>Nano plans to operate on the scale of microreactors that generate between 1 and 10MW (or according to some sources, 20MW) of thermal energy that is used directly as heat or converted to electric power.</p> <p>Applications are situations like:</p> <ul> <li>District heating</li> <li>Water desalination</li> <li>Hydrogen fuel production</li> <li>Emergency use cases like outages or natural disasters, as microreactors are even portable. They can be rapidly deployed and are easily scalable, so adaptable to many situations.</li> <li>Microreactors can supplement microgrids and bare integrable with renewable energies.</li> <li>Microreactors can operate for up to 15 years.</li> </ul> <p>In fact, what Nano tries to do (hence its name) is to build even smaller reactors that provide between 1 and 2MW of electricity, and they're actually designing two of these, the Zeus and the Odin.</p> <p>The company does have competition in the form of Oklo (OKLO), the microreactor company that also recently enjoyed its IPO (at $15.50 per share) and is backed by OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, who functions as its chair, and it merged with his SPAC for the IPO.</p> <p>That's no surprise as Oklo has a LOI to supply up to 500MW of power to Equinox, a data center company. As one might surmise from that 500MW figure, Oklo's reactors are significantly larger than Nano's.</p> <p>The Oklo liquid-metal-cooled, metal-fueled fast reactor (called Aurora) runs on recycled waste fuel, which is a significant innovation running up to 10 years without refueling.</p> <p>Oklo's reactors will provide 15MW of electrical power, have the potential to scale to 50MWe, and will typically be used for powering data centers (and also stuff like oilfield operations like the deal it has with newcleo).</p> <p>Oklo's plans seem to be further along as they already have a pipeline for some 1,350 MW of microreactor capacity as of this month, a 93% increase from about 700 MW in July 2023 and (Carbon Credits):</p> <blockquote><p>Oklo received a site use permit from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2019, secured fuel from Idaho National Laboratory, and submitted a license application to build its first plant. Oklo aims to bring its first plant online before the decade's end.</p></blockquote> <h2>Zeus Microreactor</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/23/191022-1724426319252311.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>NNE Prospectus</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The Zeus microreactor is a solid-core battery reactor under development by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NANO\">NANO Nuclear Energy Inc.</a> The company has filed multiple provisional patent applications with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) to protect the intellectual property surrounding the Zeus reactor. The main characteristics are:</p> <ul> <li>The reactor core is completely sealed and utilizes a highly conductive moderator matrix for fission energy dissipation. Heat is extracted from outside the vessel using a novel proprietary technology.</li> <li>The lack of internal fluid in the core eliminates common accident scenarios such as loss of coolant or loss of flow. This \"walk-away safe\" design emphasizes stability and safety, making it suitable for remote locations with minimal intervention.</li> <li>The Zeus core and power conversion system are designed to fit within a standard shipping container for easy transport to remote sites. The absence of in-core fluid further reduces the system's footprint by eliminating the need for components like pumps and pipes.</li> <li>The Zeus reactor employs an open-air Brayton cycle for power conversion.</li> <li>The Zeus core is engineered to deliver constant power for a minimum of 10 years at full power.</li> <li>The microreactor prototype can harness thermal energy for direct heat applications or convert it to electricity, catering to diverse needs.</li> <li>The design incorporates conventional materials and multiple off-the-shelf components to expedite time-to-market and reduce costs.</li> <li>The prototype aims to provide clean electricity, aligning with growing interest in renewable energy. Its design also supports non-electric applications like hydrogen fuel production.</li> </ul> <h2>Odin Microreactor</h2> <p>The Odin is the company's second reactor design with the following characteristics:</p> <ul> <li>A Low-Pressure Coolant System reduces stress on structural components, ultimately enhancing reliability and operational lifespan.</li> <li>A Simplified Reactivity Control that is designed for high reliability and robustness by minimizing moving parts.</li> <li>The reactor functions at temperatures exceeding those of traditional water-cooled reactors, leading to more resilient operation and improved power conversion efficiency for electricity generation.</li> <li>The design prioritizes the use of natural convection for heat transfer to the power conversion cycle during full power operation. This approach also enhances decay heat removal during shutdowns, operational transients, and off-normal conditions.</li> <li>The Odin is designed to utilize conventional fuel with an enrichment of up to 20%. This strategy helps to minimize the scope and cost of the development and testing program and leverage existing knowledge and infrastructure related to conventional nuclear fuel.</li> <li>ALIP (annular linear induction pump) cooling technology, an electromagnetic pump system, forms a crucial element of the Odin reactor. This technology was acquired from Dr. Carlos O. Maidana in June 2024 and is expected to be further refined through an SBIR Phase III project. There is an expectation that the ALIP technology can be commercialized for third-party use (in salt-based coolant reactors).</li> </ul> <h2><strong>Progress</strong></h2> <p>Both the Odin and the Zeus reactors are transitioning from the design stage into the physical test work phase. This involves:</p> <ul> <li>Constructing initial rigs to validate design models.</li> <li>Ensuring the accuracy of the models used in the design process.</li> <li>Optimizing the materials and dimensions of reactor components for performance and safety.</li> </ul> <p>NNE has completed external design audits for both the Odin and Zeus reactors, conducted by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These audits provide valuable external validation and design assistance.</p> <p>NNE believes that the ALIP technology, beyond its role in the Odin reactor, has the potential for independent commercialization within a year as a component for various salt-based coolant reactors used in diverse sectors.</p> <p>From the July 2024 prospectus:</p> <blockquote><p>We estimate that our microreactor demonstration work will be conducted between 2024 and 2026, our microreactor licensing application will be processed between 2026 and 2031, and our microreactors will be launched between 2030 and 2031.</p></blockquote> <p>The first interest from abroad emerged with the company signing a MOU with Rwanda, from the PR:</p> <blockquote><p>The MOU establishes a framework under which NANO Nuclear work alongside the RAEB to facilitate the introduction and eventual integration of small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, like 'ZEUS' and 'ODIN', NANO Nuclear 's next generation microreactors in development, throughout the Republic of Rwanda. NANO Nuclear will also be responsible for enabling the development of the country's entire ecosystem of nuclear energy systems. This includes providing technical assistance, training and educational programs to develop Rwanda's technical expertise in the nuclear energy industry.</p></blockquote> <h2>HALEU Business</h2> <p>HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) is a type of nuclear fuel with a higher concentration of the fissile isotope U-235 compared to traditional low-enriched uranium. HALEU is central to NNE's strategy because:</p> <ul> <li>HALEU is necessary to fuel the next generation of advanced nuclear reactors, including NNE's microreactors.</li> <li>By developing a HALEU fuel fabrication facility, NNE aims to become a vertically integrated nuclear energy company, controlling the fuel supply for its reactors.</li> <li>The limited availability of HALEU presents a significant market opportunity. NNE aims to become a key supplier of this critical material to other companies developing advanced reactors.</li> </ul> <h2>Fuel Transportation Business</h2> <p>We give you this from a recent PR:</p> <blockquote><p>Advanced Fuel Transportation Inc. (AFT), a NANO Nuclear subsidiary, is led by former executives from the largest transportation company in the world aiming to build a North American transportation company that will provide commercial quantities of HALEU fuel to small modular reactors, microreactor companies, national laboratories, military, and DOE programs. Through NANO Nuclear, AFT is the exclusive licensee of a patented high-capacity HALEU fuel transportation basket developed by three major U.S. national nuclear laboratories and funded by the Department of Energy. Assuming development and commercialization, AFT is expected to form part of the only vertically integrated nuclear fuel business of its kind in North America.</p></blockquote> <h2>Consultation business</h2> <p>In the prospectus, management argued that if they were unable to acquire a consultation business, they would build one, spending $2M over 12 months hiring specialists. It looks like they could have their first customer in the form of a MoU with Rwanda.</p> <h2>Financials</h2> <p>Here are the company's operations:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/24/191022-17245052938461099.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>NNE Q2/24 10-Q</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The company doesn't produce revenues and isn't likely to produce any revenue anytime soon, so this is all about cash flow. Operational cash outflow was $5.95M for the last 9 months, so it's roughly $8M on a 12-month basis (subject to change when they acquire or build their consulting business or reactor prototypes).</p> <p>The company raised $10.46M (NET) from its IPO at $4, and the company had $13.8M at the end of Q2, but they added $20M in a new round of financing in July or $18.6M net, so the company now has $32.4M in funds, which should last them 2-3 years depending on activities.</p> <p>One of these activities involved the recent acquisition of a new headquarters for $1.71M.</p> <p>That latest July financing is pretty amazing, as it was overalloted at $20 per share, while the IPO price was just $4.</p> <h2>Risks</h2> <p>There are multiple risks:</p> <ul> <li>Developing new reactor types, however promising these might seem, might throw up unexpected hurdles, technical problems, delays, and disappointments.</li> <li>Obtaining permits and licenses for nuclear facilities is a time-consuming and complex process with stringent safety and environmental standards.</li> <li>Building and operating microreactors require significant capital investment, presenting a challenge for funding and cost management.</li> <li>The market for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors is still developing. There is no guarantee of market growth aligning with NNE's expectations.</li> <li>There are public concerns about nuclear energy, so ensuring transparency and emphasizing the safety and environmental benefits of its microreactor technology is paramount.</li> </ul> <h2>NNE Stock Valuation</h2> <p>Here is what management argued in the prospectus:</p> <blockquote><p>Notwithstanding the foregoing, our limited operating history and early stage of business makes an evaluation of our business and prospects very difficult... Our new and unproven technology model will necessitate a significant infusion of additional capital for successful deployment, even following this offering.</p></blockquote> <p>Indeed. The reactors are unlikely to generate any revenues this decade, and the prospects of the other businesses are also very difficult to gauge as they have to be set up. Here is what they argue (in the prospectus, once again):</p> <blockquote><p>Our technical team is world class, with simple and realizable reactor concepts that do not require exotic fuels and who are aware of all the difficulties faced by almost every other reactor company who has chosen alternative designs.</p></blockquote> <p>If that's true (and knowledgeable investors are betting on this with their pocketbooks) they could have an amazing business next decade, but it's a long way to get there, and they will have to navigate quite a few obstacles.</p> <p>On August 13, 2024, there were 30.14M shares outstanding, 4.1M outstanding options and 1M warrants for a fully diluted count of 35.2M, which yields a market cap of some $350M (at around $10 per share).</p> <p>That's not a negligible market cap for a company with revenue years off.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>The stock is not unlike a pre-clinical stage biotech company with years of trials (and capital needs) ahead of it, facing an uncertain outcome.</p> <p>We would argue that this is a stock for those who are either familiar with (and have confidence in) the people running it and/or are intimately familiar with the technicalities of their plans, most notably with respect to the two reactor designs.</p> <p>Given the fact that they managed to gather a notable amount of private money, one could argue that there are such people, willing and able to vote with their pocketbooks.</p> <p>For the rest of us, it doesn't seem a good idea to put money in something where returns are years off and outcomes are uncertain and difficult to assess.</p> <p>There will likely be a significant market for microreactors, but it's a new concept and the ones this company proposes are still in the design stage, and it's difficult for us to assess what hurdles are waiting on their journey to fully commercial propositions, or what the economics of these look like.</p> <div></div> <p>One should also entertain the possibility that even if the reactors become a home run, investors might not share in that, depending on the amount of financing and dilution that could lay ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNANO Nuclear Energy: The Concept Is Very Promising, But Can They Pull It Off?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717017-nano-nuclear-energy-the-concept-is-very-promising-but-can-they-pull-it-off><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NANO Nuclear Energy is designing small-scale nuclear fission reactors, Zeus and Odin, for various applications.The company operates in the microreactor market, which is smaller than the SMR market, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717017-nano-nuclear-energy-the-concept-is-very-promising-but-can-they-pull-it-off\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg","relate_stocks":{"OKLO":"Oklo Inc.","BK4182":"重型电气设备","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NNE":"NANO Nuclear Energy Inc","SMR":"NuScale Power","BK4588":"碎股","BK4081":"电力公用事业","NET":"Cloudflare, Inc.","AFT":"Apollo Senior Floating Rate Fund","NANO":"NANO Nuclear Energy Inc.","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4560":"网络安全概念","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717017-nano-nuclear-energy-the-concept-is-very-promising-but-can-they-pull-it-off","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2462992888","content_text":"NANO Nuclear Energy is designing small-scale nuclear fission reactors, Zeus and Odin, for various applications.The company operates in the microreactor market, which is smaller than the SMR market, with plans for portable and scalable reactors.Most of the competition is offering significantly larger reactors so it is likely to have its own niche, but reactor sales are not likely this decade.Other business lines are also mostly in the design stage although more likely to materialize earlier, still the package is difficult to assess from an investor point of view.It should be noted that the company has no problem attracting private capital.Jezperklauzen NANO Nuclear Energy Overview NANO Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ:NNE) is a company that is designing two small-scale nuclear fission reactors or so-called microreactors. These are still in the design phase and commercial products are not likely to emerge this decade. Other business lines are likely to appear sooner, but the economics are difficult to assess, so it's hard from an investor point of view to formulate projections given the lack of hard data. This is more for specialists who can assess the viability of the company's reactor designs. Given the significant amount of private finance the company receives, there seem to be plenty of such people, which should provide a modicum of confidence. Business The company has four key business lines:  Micro Nuclear Reactor Business; developing next-generation portable nuclear microreactors, the Zeus and the Odin. Fuel Fabrication Business; developing a domestic HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) fuel fabrication facility.  Fuel Transportation Business scheduled for 2026. Nuclear Consultation Services, either through acquisition or internal development.  Microreactors The market for SMRs (small modular reactors, that is, modules up to 300MWe capacity per unit) has players like NuScale (SMR), which already has a certified design. Its Power Module is designed to generate 77MWe per module, and can be deployed in configurations of 4, 6, or 12 modules. The SMR market is actually quite lively as there are several players with plans in this space (Carbon Credits): SMRs are under construction or in the licensing stage in various countries including Japan, Canada, China, Russia, UK, and the United States. Over 80 commercial SMR designs worldwide target diverse outputs and applications such as electricity, hybrid energy systems, heating, water desalination, and industrial steam. One should keep in mind that most of these pertain to the SMR (small modular reactors) market while Nano operates in a segment of this, the microreactors (up to 10MWe), which are much smaller still and basically a replacement for diesel generators. Much of the SMR market offers much larger modules compared to Nano, so these can't be considered real competition. Nano plans to operate on the scale of microreactors that generate between 1 and 10MW (or according to some sources, 20MW) of thermal energy that is used directly as heat or converted to electric power. Applications are situations like:  District heating Water desalination Hydrogen fuel production Emergency use cases like outages or natural disasters, as microreactors are even portable. They can be rapidly deployed and are easily scalable, so adaptable to many situations. Microreactors can supplement microgrids and bare integrable with renewable energies. Microreactors can operate for up to 15 years.  In fact, what Nano tries to do (hence its name) is to build even smaller reactors that provide between 1 and 2MW of electricity, and they're actually designing two of these, the Zeus and the Odin. The company does have competition in the form of Oklo (OKLO), the microreactor company that also recently enjoyed its IPO (at $15.50 per share) and is backed by OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, who functions as its chair, and it merged with his SPAC for the IPO. That's no surprise as Oklo has a LOI to supply up to 500MW of power to Equinox, a data center company. As one might surmise from that 500MW figure, Oklo's reactors are significantly larger than Nano's. The Oklo liquid-metal-cooled, metal-fueled fast reactor (called Aurora) runs on recycled waste fuel, which is a significant innovation running up to 10 years without refueling. Oklo's reactors will provide 15MW of electrical power, have the potential to scale to 50MWe, and will typically be used for powering data centers (and also stuff like oilfield operations like the deal it has with newcleo). Oklo's plans seem to be further along as they already have a pipeline for some 1,350 MW of microreactor capacity as of this month, a 93% increase from about 700 MW in July 2023 and (Carbon Credits): Oklo received a site use permit from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2019, secured fuel from Idaho National Laboratory, and submitted a license application to build its first plant. Oklo aims to bring its first plant online before the decade's end. Zeus Microreactor NNE Prospectus The Zeus microreactor is a solid-core battery reactor under development by NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. The company has filed multiple provisional patent applications with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) to protect the intellectual property surrounding the Zeus reactor. The main characteristics are:  The reactor core is completely sealed and utilizes a highly conductive moderator matrix for fission energy dissipation. Heat is extracted from outside the vessel using a novel proprietary technology. The lack of internal fluid in the core eliminates common accident scenarios such as loss of coolant or loss of flow. This \"walk-away safe\" design emphasizes stability and safety, making it suitable for remote locations with minimal intervention. The Zeus core and power conversion system are designed to fit within a standard shipping container for easy transport to remote sites. The absence of in-core fluid further reduces the system's footprint by eliminating the need for components like pumps and pipes. The Zeus reactor employs an open-air Brayton cycle for power conversion. The Zeus core is engineered to deliver constant power for a minimum of 10 years at full power. The microreactor prototype can harness thermal energy for direct heat applications or convert it to electricity, catering to diverse needs. The design incorporates conventional materials and multiple off-the-shelf components to expedite time-to-market and reduce costs. The prototype aims to provide clean electricity, aligning with growing interest in renewable energy. Its design also supports non-electric applications like hydrogen fuel production.  Odin Microreactor The Odin is the company's second reactor design with the following characteristics:  A Low-Pressure Coolant System reduces stress on structural components, ultimately enhancing reliability and operational lifespan. A Simplified Reactivity Control that is designed for high reliability and robustness by minimizing moving parts. The reactor functions at temperatures exceeding those of traditional water-cooled reactors, leading to more resilient operation and improved power conversion efficiency for electricity generation. The design prioritizes the use of natural convection for heat transfer to the power conversion cycle during full power operation. This approach also enhances decay heat removal during shutdowns, operational transients, and off-normal conditions. The Odin is designed to utilize conventional fuel with an enrichment of up to 20%. This strategy helps to minimize the scope and cost of the development and testing program and leverage existing knowledge and infrastructure related to conventional nuclear fuel. ALIP (annular linear induction pump) cooling technology, an electromagnetic pump system, forms a crucial element of the Odin reactor. This technology was acquired from Dr. Carlos O. Maidana in June 2024 and is expected to be further refined through an SBIR Phase III project. There is an expectation that the ALIP technology can be commercialized for third-party use (in salt-based coolant reactors).  Progress Both the Odin and the Zeus reactors are transitioning from the design stage into the physical test work phase. This involves:  Constructing initial rigs to validate design models. Ensuring the accuracy of the models used in the design process. Optimizing the materials and dimensions of reactor components for performance and safety.  NNE has completed external design audits for both the Odin and Zeus reactors, conducted by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These audits provide valuable external validation and design assistance. NNE believes that the ALIP technology, beyond its role in the Odin reactor, has the potential for independent commercialization within a year as a component for various salt-based coolant reactors used in diverse sectors. From the July 2024 prospectus: We estimate that our microreactor demonstration work will be conducted between 2024 and 2026, our microreactor licensing application will be processed between 2026 and 2031, and our microreactors will be launched between 2030 and 2031. The first interest from abroad emerged with the company signing a MOU with Rwanda, from the PR: The MOU establishes a framework under which NANO Nuclear work alongside the RAEB to facilitate the introduction and eventual integration of small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, like 'ZEUS' and 'ODIN', NANO Nuclear 's next generation microreactors in development, throughout the Republic of Rwanda. NANO Nuclear will also be responsible for enabling the development of the country's entire ecosystem of nuclear energy systems. This includes providing technical assistance, training and educational programs to develop Rwanda's technical expertise in the nuclear energy industry. HALEU Business HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) is a type of nuclear fuel with a higher concentration of the fissile isotope U-235 compared to traditional low-enriched uranium. HALEU is central to NNE's strategy because:  HALEU is necessary to fuel the next generation of advanced nuclear reactors, including NNE's microreactors. By developing a HALEU fuel fabrication facility, NNE aims to become a vertically integrated nuclear energy company, controlling the fuel supply for its reactors. The limited availability of HALEU presents a significant market opportunity. NNE aims to become a key supplier of this critical material to other companies developing advanced reactors.  Fuel Transportation Business We give you this from a recent PR: Advanced Fuel Transportation Inc. (AFT), a NANO Nuclear subsidiary, is led by former executives from the largest transportation company in the world aiming to build a North American transportation company that will provide commercial quantities of HALEU fuel to small modular reactors, microreactor companies, national laboratories, military, and DOE programs. Through NANO Nuclear, AFT is the exclusive licensee of a patented high-capacity HALEU fuel transportation basket developed by three major U.S. national nuclear laboratories and funded by the Department of Energy. Assuming development and commercialization, AFT is expected to form part of the only vertically integrated nuclear fuel business of its kind in North America. Consultation business In the prospectus, management argued that if they were unable to acquire a consultation business, they would build one, spending $2M over 12 months hiring specialists. It looks like they could have their first customer in the form of a MoU with Rwanda. Financials Here are the company's operations: NNE Q2/24 10-Q The company doesn't produce revenues and isn't likely to produce any revenue anytime soon, so this is all about cash flow. Operational cash outflow was $5.95M for the last 9 months, so it's roughly $8M on a 12-month basis (subject to change when they acquire or build their consulting business or reactor prototypes). The company raised $10.46M (NET) from its IPO at $4, and the company had $13.8M at the end of Q2, but they added $20M in a new round of financing in July or $18.6M net, so the company now has $32.4M in funds, which should last them 2-3 years depending on activities. One of these activities involved the recent acquisition of a new headquarters for $1.71M. That latest July financing is pretty amazing, as it was overalloted at $20 per share, while the IPO price was just $4. Risks There are multiple risks:  Developing new reactor types, however promising these might seem, might throw up unexpected hurdles, technical problems, delays, and disappointments. Obtaining permits and licenses for nuclear facilities is a time-consuming and complex process with stringent safety and environmental standards. Building and operating microreactors require significant capital investment, presenting a challenge for funding and cost management. The market for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors is still developing. There is no guarantee of market growth aligning with NNE's expectations. There are public concerns about nuclear energy, so ensuring transparency and emphasizing the safety and environmental benefits of its microreactor technology is paramount.  NNE Stock Valuation Here is what management argued in the prospectus: Notwithstanding the foregoing, our limited operating history and early stage of business makes an evaluation of our business and prospects very difficult... Our new and unproven technology model will necessitate a significant infusion of additional capital for successful deployment, even following this offering. Indeed. The reactors are unlikely to generate any revenues this decade, and the prospects of the other businesses are also very difficult to gauge as they have to be set up. Here is what they argue (in the prospectus, once again): Our technical team is world class, with simple and realizable reactor concepts that do not require exotic fuels and who are aware of all the difficulties faced by almost every other reactor company who has chosen alternative designs. If that's true (and knowledgeable investors are betting on this with their pocketbooks) they could have an amazing business next decade, but it's a long way to get there, and they will have to navigate quite a few obstacles. On August 13, 2024, there were 30.14M shares outstanding, 4.1M outstanding options and 1M warrants for a fully diluted count of 35.2M, which yields a market cap of some $350M (at around $10 per share). That's not a negligible market cap for a company with revenue years off. Conclusion The stock is not unlike a pre-clinical stage biotech company with years of trials (and capital needs) ahead of it, facing an uncertain outcome. We would argue that this is a stock for those who are either familiar with (and have confidence in) the people running it and/or are intimately familiar with the technicalities of their plans, most notably with respect to the two reactor designs. Given the fact that they managed to gather a notable amount of private money, one could argue that there are such people, willing and able to vote with their pocketbooks. For the rest of us, it doesn't seem a good idea to put money in something where returns are years off and outcomes are uncertain and difficult to assess. There will likely be a significant market for microreactors, but it's a new concept and the ones this company proposes are still in the design stage, and it's difficult for us to assess what hurdles are waiting on their journey to fully commercial propositions, or what the economics of these look like.  One should also entertain the possibility that even if the reactors become a home run, investors might not share in that, depending on the amount of financing and dilution that could lay ahead.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356174426759584,"gmtCreate":1727960009711,"gmtModify":1727960011810,"author":{"id":"3473910588676310","authorId":"3473910588676310","name":"维克多123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0be78881a5953fc13169c6cb881089","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473910588676310","authorIdStr":"3473910588676310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"受益匪浅","listText":"受益匪浅","text":"受益匪浅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356174426759584","repostId":"1151891108","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1151891108","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1725866827,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151891108?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-09-09 15:27","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"或许解决美国电力问题！这些股票准备迎接新的核能时代","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151891108","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"三四年内，这座未受损的反应堆可能会再次启动，标志着美国能源新时代的到来。在美国，核电复兴的星星之火已经点燃。核能是美国最大的无碳能源。政府尚未解决如何处理核电站产生的核废料。近年来，经济压力成为迫使核电站关闭的最大因素。天然气已成为美国最大的电力来源，廉价天然气和日益增长的可再生能源使批发电价下降，导致核电站在电力拍卖中难以竞争。没有参与熔毁事故的三哩岛反应堆在2019年因财务问题关闭。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>人工智能和电动汽车正在消耗巨大的电力，而 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEG\">Constellation Energy Corp</a> 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VST\">Vistra Energy Corp.</a>可能会因此受益。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d7ab94d1dc889ba715c57cd72af58c2\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>在美国宾夕法尼亚州哈里斯堡以南的萨斯奎哈纳河上一座狭窄的小岛上，一件非凡的事情正在发生。曾在1979年发生过历史性放射性泄漏事故的三哩岛核电站，正在悄悄为重启做准备。三四年内，这座未受损的反应堆可能会再次启动，标志着美国能源新时代的到来。</p><p>总部位于巴尔的摩的Constellation Energy公司首席执行官乔·多明格斯 (Joe Dominguez) 表示：“这将具有极大的象征意义。”该公司拥有三哩岛的反应堆。1979年的事故让核电行业吸取了许多教训，如今，多明格斯表示，三哩岛也可能成为“核电重新引起人们兴趣的发源地”。</p><p>在美国，核电复兴的星星之火已经点燃。政府正在向核电行业注入数十亿美元，科技巨头如比尔·盖茨和OpenAI的萨姆·奥特曼也在支持新兴公司，公众对核电的支持率显著上升。</p><p>核电行业复苏的一个迹象是Constellation的股价表现。这家美国最大的核电站拥有者几年前还在向州监管机构请求救助；现在，该公司的业绩蒸蒸日上，其股价在过去一年中上涨了 70%。随着政府支持的增加以及公用事业公司提高对核电站所有者的支付，Constellation和类似的得州发电企业Vistra的股价预计将继续上涨。其他上市的核电相关公司，如加拿大的铀矿和核技术公司Cameco，也可能受益于铀需求的增长。</p><p>就在核能时代似乎即将走向衰落之际，核能的复苏到来了。美国 94 座核反应堆的发电量占美国总发电量的 18.6%，足以为 7200 万户家庭供电。核能是美国最大的无碳能源。但核能占总发电量的份额在 20 世纪 90 年代达到 20% 以上的峰值后，多年来一直在下降。2012 年至 2021 年期间，美国有十几座核反应堆关闭。  </p><p>形势正在转变。原定于 2021 年至 2025 年关闭的六座反应堆已通过州和联邦政府的行动得以挽救。三座已关闭并退役的反应堆可能会重新启动，这是以前从未发生过的。盖茨的核能公司 TerraPower 正在怀俄明州一座退役煤电厂的场地上准备建造一座新反应堆，政府资助资金超过 20 亿美元，两家奥特曼支持的公司正在测试核技术。拜登政府宣布了到 2050 年将国家核电容量提高两倍的目标。</p><p>核电复兴的最大推动力在于美国的电力需求在经历了十多年停滞后开始增长。在某些地区，需求正在激增。电动汽车、为人工智能提供动力的数据中心以及推动“美国制造”工业繁荣的新工厂都需要大量的电力。公用事业公司正争相确保可靠的电力供应，并愿意为此支付高额费用。覆盖中大西洋和中西部地区的电网运营商在7月同意将支付给发电厂的容量费用提高九倍，这为发电厂所有者带来了数十亿美元的意外之财。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/421739ea4c74dbcef34c56a0b4e156ea\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"772\"/></p><p>在过去的几个世纪里，这种新能源可能来自煤炭。但美国的气候目标更倾向于不排放二氧化碳的能源，而核能、太阳能和风能就是其中之一。在这些能源中，核能作为一种无碳排放的能源，具有无论日晒风吹都能持续发电的优势。</p><p>“如果我们要实现能源转型，我们需要相当于数百座胡佛大坝的稳定电力，而我们现在已经不再建大坝了。”伊利诺伊大学教授、前能源部最高核电官员凯蒂·赫夫说道。赫夫在政府任职期间，在核能政策方面取得了显著成果，阻止了核电站的关闭，并升级了老旧设施以提高性能。</p><p>不过，核能复兴的故事也有一个很大的警告。尽管拜登政府和各州政府已经阻止了一些核电站关闭，并敦促停运站点的所有者重新启动核反应堆，但美国要实现更大的目标仍然面临巨大挑战。将核能产能提高三倍需要建设大约200座大型反应堆，而目前没有一个新的反应堆正在建设中。即便在年底前宣布新项目，规划和建设也可能需要十年时间。</p><p>尽管联邦和州政府的补贴越来越多，具备建设核反应堆实力和经验的公用事业公司却尚未准备好承诺启动大型项目。美国能源部在一份报告中承认，除非有更多的纳税人支持或创新的资金模式，否则该行业可能陷入僵局。</p><p>拥有全球最多反应堆的美国，正面临被赶超的风险。全球目前有64座反应堆在建，其中约30座位于中国，且中国最近批准新反应堆的速度达到了每年10座以上。法国、俄罗斯和韩国也有自己的雄心勃勃的政府支持计划。</p><h2 id=\"id_3595459947\">向艾森豪威尔学习</h2><p>在核能发展的大部分历史中，美国一直引领着这项技术的开发和部署。商用核反应堆行业起源于美国国防部二战时期的核武器计划，其基本组成部分并没有发生太大变化。在核反应堆内部，充满铀的管道为核裂变过程提供动力，即中子与铀原子碰撞，释放能量并引发更多反应。美国反应堆使用水来控制温度。反应堆产生的热量将水变成蒸汽，推动涡轮机旋转并发电。</p><p>1958 年，德怀特·艾森豪威尔总统在宾夕法尼亚州希平波特为第一座核电站举行了落成典礼，并在演讲中赞扬了美国“让原子能为人类谋福利，而不是毁灭”的能力。到了 20 世纪 60 年代，美国已建成数十座核电站，能够为数百万家庭供电。 </p><p>但核电的推广并非一帆风顺。核能与核武器的联系使其长期以来备受争议。尽管安全措施有所改进，但仍未能完全消除公众对放射性泄漏的担忧。这些担忧在1979年部分成为现实，当时三哩岛的一个反应堆部分熔毁。事故迫使人们撤离，并引发健康担忧，尽管核监管委员会表示，事故中的“少量放射性释放对工人和公众没有可检测的健康影响”。1986年切尔诺贝利事故和2011年福岛事故更具毁灭性，进一步减缓了新核电站的建设进程。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12c9dd2666fc028cd89805cccb08b656\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"682\"/></p><p>还有其他问题。政府尚未解决如何处理核电站产生的核废料。美国人不希望核废料存放在自己的社区或通过它们的社区运输，因此许多核废料目前被封存在靠近反应堆的混凝土中。对辐射和放射性废物的担忧是导致1970年代后期新核反应堆推广放缓的原因之一。核反应堆的总数在1990年达到112座的峰值，此后逐渐减少。</p><p>近年来，经济压力成为迫使核电站关闭的最大因素。天然气已成为美国最大的电力来源，廉价天然气和日益增长的可再生能源使批发电价下降，导致核电站在电力拍卖中难以竞争。没有参与熔毁事故的三哩岛反应堆在2019年因财务问题关闭。当时，多明格斯表示，该反应堆每年亏损超过1亿美元。</p><p>自那以来，最大的变化是政府对核电的支持发生了改变。《通胀削减法案》包括与风能和太阳能相媲美的核能税收抵免。这些抵免基本上为核电站支付的电价设定了一个底线，远高于运营成本。能源部还直接资助了濒临关闭的核电站。加州最后一座核电站、为该州提供9%电力的迪亚布洛峡谷核电站原定于今年和明年关闭其两个反应堆，但11亿美元的联邦资金将帮助其再运行数年。</p><p>政府领导人可能正在顺应公众的意见。皮尤研究中心发现，2023年有57%的美国人支持增加更多的核电站，而2020年这一比例为43%。共和党人对核电的支持度较高，但民主党人对这一行业的接受度也在逐渐上升。</p><p>“你可以看到一代人的观念转变——从那些在核能与核武器计划相提并论的年代成长起来的人，转向没有那种历史包袱的年轻一代，”美国爱达荷国家实验室主任约翰·瓦格纳说。这个由政府运营的实验室是75年前核能发电的发源地，现在正进行新的核电技术实验。</p><p>新一代有着自己的存在性恐惧——气候变化——并且他们越来越认为核电是解决方案。尽管太阳能和风能的发电量在增长，但这些能源是间歇性的，而大多数锂电池只能持续运行四个小时——不足以让美国人在夜晚度过用电需求。</p><p>全球政界人士都在拥抱核能。在去年12月于迪拜举行的COP28气候大会上，包括美国在内的20多个国家同意努力到2050年将核能产能增加三倍。签署国包括日本，这个国家在福岛事故后暂停了所有的核电站。</p><h2 id=\"id_928957231\">评估获胜者</h2><p> “这是一个令人着迷的时期，可能是我在这个行业40年来看到的最好供需基本面，”Cameco首席执行官蒂姆·吉策尔说。Cameco公司正在重新开放因福岛核电站事故关闭的铀矿。随着铀价上涨，该公司的股票也随之上升。分析师预计明年该公司的收益大约翻倍。这种炙手可热的增长率还没有完全体现在股价中，当前市盈率为预期收益的29倍。</p><p>在核能复兴中，其他的大赢家是现有反应堆的所有者；他们将从电价上涨中受益。Constellation 和 Vistra 处于特别有利的地位，因为它们作为独立发电商运营，其利润不像传统公用事业那样受到监管。他们的反应堆越来越有利可图，其股票市盈率低于市场平均水平。</p><p>他们还可能无需举债建造新反应堆，就能增加核电产能。Constellation公司的多明格斯认为，通过现代化现有电厂并重启停运的电厂，公司可以增加1.5到2吉瓦的产能——大约相当于胡佛大坝的发电量。</p><p>密歇根州正在展开一个老反应堆是否能够重启的首个试点项目。霍尔泰克国际公司（Holtec International）是一家通常通过退役核电站赚取利润的公司，现在计划重启位于密歇根湖岸边的一个名为Palisades的停运反应堆。</p><p>霍尔泰克的政府事务和通讯主管帕特里克·奥布莱恩表示，该公司在2022年从公用事业公司Entergy接管这个场地时，并没有预期会重启反应堆。但密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默的办公室坚持要求他们考虑这个问题，而且该州愿意提供部分资金来促成此事。密歇根州承诺到2040年使其电力网络实现脱碳。州官员意识到，如果不包括能够为80万客户供电的Palisades核电站，将会是一个重大挫折。该州首席气候与能源战略官卡拉·库克表示：“如果不让这个设施重新上线，达成州的气候目标将非常困难。”</p><p>该州已承诺提供3亿美元支持Palisades，联邦政府也有条件批准了15亿美元的贷款担保。根据许可审批的进度，Palisades有望在2025年10月重新投入运行。该公司还申请建造两个小型反应堆，可能为额外约50万人提供电力。</p><p>并非所有人都对此表示欢迎。塞拉俱乐部（Sierra Club）认为，重启Palisades意味着更多危险的核废料将存放在密歇根湖岸边。该环保组织还表示，州政府正在浪费本可以用于更好选择上的资金，包括更快速地推广太阳能和风能。</p><p>三哩岛可能是下一个重新启用的退役地点。最近的一次工程评估带来了好消息。“设备的状况与我们在2019年提前关闭它时一样好，”多明格斯说。</p><p>他补充道，如果公司继续推进，重启过程可能需要36到48个月。NextEra公司首席执行官约翰·凯特查姆最近对投资者表示，他们公司正在“考虑”重启爱荷华州的一个退役反应堆。</p><p>升级和重启现有电厂可能在未来十年内将核电产能增加约5%。要实现政府三倍增产的目标，美国需要开展一项规模比曼哈顿计划大几倍并持续数十年的努力。这样将耗费数千亿美元，并需要培训多达37.5万名工人。</p><p>最近的历史对此并不看好。在过去28年里，美国仅建造了三座核反应堆。其中两座位于佐治亚州奥古斯塔附近，分别在2023年和2024年开始运营。在启动仪式上，能源部长詹妮弗·格兰霍姆充满希望地宣称：“两个完成了，还剩198个！”</p><h2 id=\"id_1171878658\">来自乔治亚州的教训 </h2><p>接下来的198个反应堆不会轻易建成。乔治亚州的反应堆，即Vogtle 3和4，提供了一个警示性的故事。最初预计在2016年和2017年完工，它们却遭遇了严重的延误和成本超支，估计高达200亿美元。设计这些反应堆的西屋电气公司在项目中途申请了破产保护。有时，运送到工地的反应堆部件甚至无法正确组装在一起，负责部分建设工作的所有者南方公司代表乔·克莱查说。</p><p>克莱查表示，根本问题在于建造新工业设施的首个版本总是困难的，并且往往会受到延误和成本超支的困扰。在建造了足够多的核反应堆之后，施工团队解决问题的经验积累下来，成本节约才会开始显现。他现在为一家名为The Nuclear Company的初创公司工作，正在推动几个大型标准化反应堆的发展。</p><p>佐治亚州的成本超支大部分将由电费用户支付，而这些用户已经面临电价上涨的压力。这让佐治亚州的监管机构陷入了两难境地。新的数据中心和工厂正在导致电力需求超出他们之前的预测，但他们对在没有为消费者提供保障的情况下批准新电厂持谨慎态度。“我们有能力建造更多的大型核电机组，而且我们确实需要这些产能，”佐治亚州公共服务委员会副主席蒂姆·埃科尔斯在给《巴伦周刊》的一封电子邮件中写道。“但我们不能像以前那样做——我们需要保障。”</p><p>现在的问题是谁来提供这种保障。在核计划最为激进的国家，如中国，政府资助的项目为工人团队提供资金，使他们能够在不同的工地快速高效地建造相同的反应堆。他们现在能够在七年或更短的时间内以远低于美国的成本建造反应堆。</p><p>美国采取了不同的做法，向私人公司提供补助金和贷款担保。美国能源部的贷款项目办公室正在审查价值650亿美元的各类核能项目贷款申请。</p><h3 id=\"id_946207112\">值得关注的参与者</h3><p>这五家公司各自针对核能繁荣制定了明确的计划。其中一些公司已经取得了长足的发展。</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align:left;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>公司 / 代号</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>股价</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:right;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>今年以来回报</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>市值 (十億)</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:right;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>2025年市盈率</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>评论</strong></p></th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">Cameco Corp</a> <strong> / CCJ</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$38.10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>−11.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$16.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>28.8</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>北美最大的铀生产商</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(248, 248, 248);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEG\">Constellation Energy Corp</a> <strong>/ CEG</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>176.07</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>50.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>55.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>19.7</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>美国最多核反应堆的拥有者</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUK\">杜克能源</a> <strong> / DUK</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>116.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>20.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>90.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>18.5</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>一家大型公用事业公司计划建造更多核反应堆</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(248, 248, 248);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKLO\">Oklo Inc.</a><strong> / OKLO</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>−44.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>N/A</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman 支持的核能创新者</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VST\">Vistra Energy Corp.</a> <strong> / VST</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>75.83</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>96.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>11.6</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>一家正在扩建核电站的跨州电力生产商</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Note: E=estimate. N/A=not applicable</p><p>来源: Bloomberg</p><p>这些资金已经激发了创新和竞争的浪潮。一些公司正在设计使用新方法来生产和储存核能的反应堆，这些反应堆可以快速建造成模块化段。新兴公司包括比尔·盖茨于2008年创办的TerraPower公司和由OpenAI的奥特曼担任主席的上市公司Oklo。这些公司表示，它们能够比大多数现有的行业参与者更高效和更安全地运营，但它们距离生产反应堆还有数年时间。它们的设计尚未获得核管理委员会的批准。</p><p>一些人认为，美国可能犯了错误，向几家公司提供贷款，而不是直接资助大规模建造标准化反应堆。</p><p>“我认为他们的初衷是好的，”美国核能学会国际委员会主席、核能技术公司Lightbridge首席执行官塞思·格雷说。“但从冷静的现实来看，其他国家做出了更好的决定。美国可以迎头赶上，也可以做得很好，但我们确实有点着急，因为我们昨天就需要这些能源了。”</p><p>美国能源部没有回应格雷的批评。赫夫表示，能源部认识到直接资助是一种“更可靠得多的策略”，可以快速建造核电，但这种方法受到国会拨款的限制。</p><p>尽管如此，赫夫和其他官员认为，核能的未来之路可能涉及一些不寻常的参与者。大科技公司对核能表现出了特别的兴趣，尤其是在数据中心和其他应用领域。核反应堆可以支持巨大的电力需求，包括最苛刻的人工智能应用，而不会增加碳排放。所有大科技公司都有减少碳排放的目标，但随着它们投资于耗电量巨大的人工智能，达成这一目标变得具有挑战性。为了控制自己的排放，这些科技巨头发现自己不能再做被动的电力消费者。</p><p>微软正在招聘核能专家，并且愿意进行实验。该公司同意从奥特曼支持的一家初创公司Helion购买最早在2028年提供的核能，该公司致力于核聚变技术——大多数专家认为该技术离商业化还有很长的路要走。今年早些时候，亚马逊还与电力生产商Talen Energy达成协议，将其数据中心直接连接到宾夕法尼亚州现有的一座核电站，绕过电网。该协议不会增加国家的核电产能——事实上，批评者认为这会减少其他客户可用的电力——但它表明，核能已进入这些公司的视野。</p><p>其他协议可能会导致新的核反应堆建设。Alphabet、微软、亚马逊和钢铁制造商纽柯正在与总部位于北卡罗来纳州的公用事业公司Duke Energy合作，探索新的融资机制，“专门设计用于降低核电和其他清洁能源的长期成本”。这可能包括承诺的“关税”，以为新电厂提供部分资金。Duke尚未宣布新电厂的建设计划，但该公用事业公司可能需要核电来满足其不断增长的电力需求。去年，Duke增加的客户数量创下了历史新高，其对2030年前新电力需求的预期比两年前高出八倍。“新的核电无疑将在Duke Energy的清洁能源未来中发挥作用，”Duke的首席核官员凯尔文·亨德森在向《巴伦周刊》发表的一份声明中说。</p><p>科技公司拒绝接受关于其战略的采访。一些核能专家对它们是否会承担足够的成本来启动核电建设持怀疑态度，认为这离不开更多的政府支持。尽管如此，经济和环境的双重需求已经将核能重新推向了聚光灯下。未来几年将决定这项技术是否准备好再次大放异彩。</p><p><em>文章源自Barron&#39;s《Get Ready for the New Nuclear Age. It Could Help Solve America’s Electricity Problems.》</em></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>或许解决美国电力问题！这些股票准备迎接新的核能时代</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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class=\"title\">\n或许解决美国电力问题！这些股票准备迎接新的核能时代\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2024-09-09 15:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>人工智能和电动汽车正在消耗巨大的电力，而 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEG\">Constellation Energy Corp</a> 和 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VST\">Vistra Energy Corp.</a>可能会因此受益。</p></blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8d7ab94d1dc889ba715c57cd72af58c2\" tg-width=\"829\" tg-height=\"561\"/></p><p>在美国宾夕法尼亚州哈里斯堡以南的萨斯奎哈纳河上一座狭窄的小岛上，一件非凡的事情正在发生。曾在1979年发生过历史性放射性泄漏事故的三哩岛核电站，正在悄悄为重启做准备。三四年内，这座未受损的反应堆可能会再次启动，标志着美国能源新时代的到来。</p><p>总部位于巴尔的摩的Constellation Energy公司首席执行官乔·多明格斯 (Joe Dominguez) 表示：“这将具有极大的象征意义。”该公司拥有三哩岛的反应堆。1979年的事故让核电行业吸取了许多教训，如今，多明格斯表示，三哩岛也可能成为“核电重新引起人们兴趣的发源地”。</p><p>在美国，核电复兴的星星之火已经点燃。政府正在向核电行业注入数十亿美元，科技巨头如比尔·盖茨和OpenAI的萨姆·奥特曼也在支持新兴公司，公众对核电的支持率显著上升。</p><p>核电行业复苏的一个迹象是Constellation的股价表现。这家美国最大的核电站拥有者几年前还在向州监管机构请求救助；现在，该公司的业绩蒸蒸日上，其股价在过去一年中上涨了 70%。随着政府支持的增加以及公用事业公司提高对核电站所有者的支付，Constellation和类似的得州发电企业Vistra的股价预计将继续上涨。其他上市的核电相关公司，如加拿大的铀矿和核技术公司Cameco，也可能受益于铀需求的增长。</p><p>就在核能时代似乎即将走向衰落之际，核能的复苏到来了。美国 94 座核反应堆的发电量占美国总发电量的 18.6%，足以为 7200 万户家庭供电。核能是美国最大的无碳能源。但核能占总发电量的份额在 20 世纪 90 年代达到 20% 以上的峰值后，多年来一直在下降。2012 年至 2021 年期间，美国有十几座核反应堆关闭。  </p><p>形势正在转变。原定于 2021 年至 2025 年关闭的六座反应堆已通过州和联邦政府的行动得以挽救。三座已关闭并退役的反应堆可能会重新启动，这是以前从未发生过的。盖茨的核能公司 TerraPower 正在怀俄明州一座退役煤电厂的场地上准备建造一座新反应堆，政府资助资金超过 20 亿美元，两家奥特曼支持的公司正在测试核技术。拜登政府宣布了到 2050 年将国家核电容量提高两倍的目标。</p><p>核电复兴的最大推动力在于美国的电力需求在经历了十多年停滞后开始增长。在某些地区，需求正在激增。电动汽车、为人工智能提供动力的数据中心以及推动“美国制造”工业繁荣的新工厂都需要大量的电力。公用事业公司正争相确保可靠的电力供应，并愿意为此支付高额费用。覆盖中大西洋和中西部地区的电网运营商在7月同意将支付给发电厂的容量费用提高九倍，这为发电厂所有者带来了数十亿美元的意外之财。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/421739ea4c74dbcef34c56a0b4e156ea\" tg-width=\"900\" tg-height=\"772\"/></p><p>在过去的几个世纪里，这种新能源可能来自煤炭。但美国的气候目标更倾向于不排放二氧化碳的能源，而核能、太阳能和风能就是其中之一。在这些能源中，核能作为一种无碳排放的能源，具有无论日晒风吹都能持续发电的优势。</p><p>“如果我们要实现能源转型，我们需要相当于数百座胡佛大坝的稳定电力，而我们现在已经不再建大坝了。”伊利诺伊大学教授、前能源部最高核电官员凯蒂·赫夫说道。赫夫在政府任职期间，在核能政策方面取得了显著成果，阻止了核电站的关闭，并升级了老旧设施以提高性能。</p><p>不过，核能复兴的故事也有一个很大的警告。尽管拜登政府和各州政府已经阻止了一些核电站关闭，并敦促停运站点的所有者重新启动核反应堆，但美国要实现更大的目标仍然面临巨大挑战。将核能产能提高三倍需要建设大约200座大型反应堆，而目前没有一个新的反应堆正在建设中。即便在年底前宣布新项目，规划和建设也可能需要十年时间。</p><p>尽管联邦和州政府的补贴越来越多，具备建设核反应堆实力和经验的公用事业公司却尚未准备好承诺启动大型项目。美国能源部在一份报告中承认，除非有更多的纳税人支持或创新的资金模式，否则该行业可能陷入僵局。</p><p>拥有全球最多反应堆的美国，正面临被赶超的风险。全球目前有64座反应堆在建，其中约30座位于中国，且中国最近批准新反应堆的速度达到了每年10座以上。法国、俄罗斯和韩国也有自己的雄心勃勃的政府支持计划。</p><h2 id=\"id_3595459947\">向艾森豪威尔学习</h2><p>在核能发展的大部分历史中，美国一直引领着这项技术的开发和部署。商用核反应堆行业起源于美国国防部二战时期的核武器计划，其基本组成部分并没有发生太大变化。在核反应堆内部，充满铀的管道为核裂变过程提供动力，即中子与铀原子碰撞，释放能量并引发更多反应。美国反应堆使用水来控制温度。反应堆产生的热量将水变成蒸汽，推动涡轮机旋转并发电。</p><p>1958 年，德怀特·艾森豪威尔总统在宾夕法尼亚州希平波特为第一座核电站举行了落成典礼，并在演讲中赞扬了美国“让原子能为人类谋福利，而不是毁灭”的能力。到了 20 世纪 60 年代，美国已建成数十座核电站，能够为数百万家庭供电。 </p><p>但核电的推广并非一帆风顺。核能与核武器的联系使其长期以来备受争议。尽管安全措施有所改进，但仍未能完全消除公众对放射性泄漏的担忧。这些担忧在1979年部分成为现实，当时三哩岛的一个反应堆部分熔毁。事故迫使人们撤离，并引发健康担忧，尽管核监管委员会表示，事故中的“少量放射性释放对工人和公众没有可检测的健康影响”。1986年切尔诺贝利事故和2011年福岛事故更具毁灭性，进一步减缓了新核电站的建设进程。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/12c9dd2666fc028cd89805cccb08b656\" tg-width=\"835\" tg-height=\"682\"/></p><p>还有其他问题。政府尚未解决如何处理核电站产生的核废料。美国人不希望核废料存放在自己的社区或通过它们的社区运输，因此许多核废料目前被封存在靠近反应堆的混凝土中。对辐射和放射性废物的担忧是导致1970年代后期新核反应堆推广放缓的原因之一。核反应堆的总数在1990年达到112座的峰值，此后逐渐减少。</p><p>近年来，经济压力成为迫使核电站关闭的最大因素。天然气已成为美国最大的电力来源，廉价天然气和日益增长的可再生能源使批发电价下降，导致核电站在电力拍卖中难以竞争。没有参与熔毁事故的三哩岛反应堆在2019年因财务问题关闭。当时，多明格斯表示，该反应堆每年亏损超过1亿美元。</p><p>自那以来，最大的变化是政府对核电的支持发生了改变。《通胀削减法案》包括与风能和太阳能相媲美的核能税收抵免。这些抵免基本上为核电站支付的电价设定了一个底线，远高于运营成本。能源部还直接资助了濒临关闭的核电站。加州最后一座核电站、为该州提供9%电力的迪亚布洛峡谷核电站原定于今年和明年关闭其两个反应堆，但11亿美元的联邦资金将帮助其再运行数年。</p><p>政府领导人可能正在顺应公众的意见。皮尤研究中心发现，2023年有57%的美国人支持增加更多的核电站，而2020年这一比例为43%。共和党人对核电的支持度较高，但民主党人对这一行业的接受度也在逐渐上升。</p><p>“你可以看到一代人的观念转变——从那些在核能与核武器计划相提并论的年代成长起来的人，转向没有那种历史包袱的年轻一代，”美国爱达荷国家实验室主任约翰·瓦格纳说。这个由政府运营的实验室是75年前核能发电的发源地，现在正进行新的核电技术实验。</p><p>新一代有着自己的存在性恐惧——气候变化——并且他们越来越认为核电是解决方案。尽管太阳能和风能的发电量在增长，但这些能源是间歇性的，而大多数锂电池只能持续运行四个小时——不足以让美国人在夜晚度过用电需求。</p><p>全球政界人士都在拥抱核能。在去年12月于迪拜举行的COP28气候大会上，包括美国在内的20多个国家同意努力到2050年将核能产能增加三倍。签署国包括日本，这个国家在福岛事故后暂停了所有的核电站。</p><h2 id=\"id_928957231\">评估获胜者</h2><p> “这是一个令人着迷的时期，可能是我在这个行业40年来看到的最好供需基本面，”Cameco首席执行官蒂姆·吉策尔说。Cameco公司正在重新开放因福岛核电站事故关闭的铀矿。随着铀价上涨，该公司的股票也随之上升。分析师预计明年该公司的收益大约翻倍。这种炙手可热的增长率还没有完全体现在股价中，当前市盈率为预期收益的29倍。</p><p>在核能复兴中，其他的大赢家是现有反应堆的所有者；他们将从电价上涨中受益。Constellation 和 Vistra 处于特别有利的地位，因为它们作为独立发电商运营，其利润不像传统公用事业那样受到监管。他们的反应堆越来越有利可图，其股票市盈率低于市场平均水平。</p><p>他们还可能无需举债建造新反应堆，就能增加核电产能。Constellation公司的多明格斯认为，通过现代化现有电厂并重启停运的电厂，公司可以增加1.5到2吉瓦的产能——大约相当于胡佛大坝的发电量。</p><p>密歇根州正在展开一个老反应堆是否能够重启的首个试点项目。霍尔泰克国际公司（Holtec International）是一家通常通过退役核电站赚取利润的公司，现在计划重启位于密歇根湖岸边的一个名为Palisades的停运反应堆。</p><p>霍尔泰克的政府事务和通讯主管帕特里克·奥布莱恩表示，该公司在2022年从公用事业公司Entergy接管这个场地时，并没有预期会重启反应堆。但密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默的办公室坚持要求他们考虑这个问题，而且该州愿意提供部分资金来促成此事。密歇根州承诺到2040年使其电力网络实现脱碳。州官员意识到，如果不包括能够为80万客户供电的Palisades核电站，将会是一个重大挫折。该州首席气候与能源战略官卡拉·库克表示：“如果不让这个设施重新上线，达成州的气候目标将非常困难。”</p><p>该州已承诺提供3亿美元支持Palisades，联邦政府也有条件批准了15亿美元的贷款担保。根据许可审批的进度，Palisades有望在2025年10月重新投入运行。该公司还申请建造两个小型反应堆，可能为额外约50万人提供电力。</p><p>并非所有人都对此表示欢迎。塞拉俱乐部（Sierra Club）认为，重启Palisades意味着更多危险的核废料将存放在密歇根湖岸边。该环保组织还表示，州政府正在浪费本可以用于更好选择上的资金，包括更快速地推广太阳能和风能。</p><p>三哩岛可能是下一个重新启用的退役地点。最近的一次工程评估带来了好消息。“设备的状况与我们在2019年提前关闭它时一样好，”多明格斯说。</p><p>他补充道，如果公司继续推进，重启过程可能需要36到48个月。NextEra公司首席执行官约翰·凯特查姆最近对投资者表示，他们公司正在“考虑”重启爱荷华州的一个退役反应堆。</p><p>升级和重启现有电厂可能在未来十年内将核电产能增加约5%。要实现政府三倍增产的目标，美国需要开展一项规模比曼哈顿计划大几倍并持续数十年的努力。这样将耗费数千亿美元，并需要培训多达37.5万名工人。</p><p>最近的历史对此并不看好。在过去28年里，美国仅建造了三座核反应堆。其中两座位于佐治亚州奥古斯塔附近，分别在2023年和2024年开始运营。在启动仪式上，能源部长詹妮弗·格兰霍姆充满希望地宣称：“两个完成了，还剩198个！”</p><h2 id=\"id_1171878658\">来自乔治亚州的教训 </h2><p>接下来的198个反应堆不会轻易建成。乔治亚州的反应堆，即Vogtle 3和4，提供了一个警示性的故事。最初预计在2016年和2017年完工，它们却遭遇了严重的延误和成本超支，估计高达200亿美元。设计这些反应堆的西屋电气公司在项目中途申请了破产保护。有时，运送到工地的反应堆部件甚至无法正确组装在一起，负责部分建设工作的所有者南方公司代表乔·克莱查说。</p><p>克莱查表示，根本问题在于建造新工业设施的首个版本总是困难的，并且往往会受到延误和成本超支的困扰。在建造了足够多的核反应堆之后，施工团队解决问题的经验积累下来，成本节约才会开始显现。他现在为一家名为The Nuclear Company的初创公司工作，正在推动几个大型标准化反应堆的发展。</p><p>佐治亚州的成本超支大部分将由电费用户支付，而这些用户已经面临电价上涨的压力。这让佐治亚州的监管机构陷入了两难境地。新的数据中心和工厂正在导致电力需求超出他们之前的预测，但他们对在没有为消费者提供保障的情况下批准新电厂持谨慎态度。“我们有能力建造更多的大型核电机组，而且我们确实需要这些产能，”佐治亚州公共服务委员会副主席蒂姆·埃科尔斯在给《巴伦周刊》的一封电子邮件中写道。“但我们不能像以前那样做——我们需要保障。”</p><p>现在的问题是谁来提供这种保障。在核计划最为激进的国家，如中国，政府资助的项目为工人团队提供资金，使他们能够在不同的工地快速高效地建造相同的反应堆。他们现在能够在七年或更短的时间内以远低于美国的成本建造反应堆。</p><p>美国采取了不同的做法，向私人公司提供补助金和贷款担保。美国能源部的贷款项目办公室正在审查价值650亿美元的各类核能项目贷款申请。</p><h3 id=\"id_946207112\">值得关注的参与者</h3><p>这五家公司各自针对核能繁荣制定了明确的计划。其中一些公司已经取得了长足的发展。</p><table style=\"border-collapse:collapse;\"><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align:left;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>公司 / 代号</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>股价</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:right;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>今年以来回报</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>市值 (十億)</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:right;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>2025年市盈率</strong></p></th><th style=\"text-align:left;vertical-align:bottom;\"><p><strong>评论</strong></p></th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCJ\">Cameco Corp</a> <strong> / CCJ</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$38.10</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>−11.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>$16.6</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>28.8</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>北美最大的铀生产商</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(248, 248, 248);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CEG\">Constellation Energy Corp</a> <strong>/ CEG</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>176.07</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>50.6%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>55.5</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>19.7</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>美国最多核反应堆的拥有者</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DUK\">杜克能源</a> <strong> / DUK</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>116.85</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>20.4%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>90.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>18.5</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>一家大型公用事业公司计划建造更多核反应堆</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(248, 248, 248);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OKLO\">Oklo Inc.</a><strong> / OKLO</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>5.82</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>−44.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>0.7</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>N/A</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>OpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman 支持的核能创新者</p></td></tr><tr><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p></p></td><th style=\"background-color:rgb(255, 255, 255);text-align:left;\"><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VST\">Vistra Energy Corp.</a> <strong> / VST</strong></p></th><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>75.83</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>96.9%</p></td><td style=\"text-align:left;\"><p>26.1</p></td><td style=\"text-align:right;\"><p>11.6</p></td><td style=\"background-color:rgb(240, 240, 240);text-align:left;\"><p>一家正在扩建核电站的跨州电力生产商</p></td></tr></tbody></table><p>Note: E=estimate. N/A=not applicable</p><p>来源: Bloomberg</p><p>这些资金已经激发了创新和竞争的浪潮。一些公司正在设计使用新方法来生产和储存核能的反应堆，这些反应堆可以快速建造成模块化段。新兴公司包括比尔·盖茨于2008年创办的TerraPower公司和由OpenAI的奥特曼担任主席的上市公司Oklo。这些公司表示，它们能够比大多数现有的行业参与者更高效和更安全地运营，但它们距离生产反应堆还有数年时间。它们的设计尚未获得核管理委员会的批准。</p><p>一些人认为，美国可能犯了错误，向几家公司提供贷款，而不是直接资助大规模建造标准化反应堆。</p><p>“我认为他们的初衷是好的，”美国核能学会国际委员会主席、核能技术公司Lightbridge首席执行官塞思·格雷说。“但从冷静的现实来看，其他国家做出了更好的决定。美国可以迎头赶上，也可以做得很好，但我们确实有点着急，因为我们昨天就需要这些能源了。”</p><p>美国能源部没有回应格雷的批评。赫夫表示，能源部认识到直接资助是一种“更可靠得多的策略”，可以快速建造核电，但这种方法受到国会拨款的限制。</p><p>尽管如此，赫夫和其他官员认为，核能的未来之路可能涉及一些不寻常的参与者。大科技公司对核能表现出了特别的兴趣，尤其是在数据中心和其他应用领域。核反应堆可以支持巨大的电力需求，包括最苛刻的人工智能应用，而不会增加碳排放。所有大科技公司都有减少碳排放的目标，但随着它们投资于耗电量巨大的人工智能，达成这一目标变得具有挑战性。为了控制自己的排放，这些科技巨头发现自己不能再做被动的电力消费者。</p><p>微软正在招聘核能专家，并且愿意进行实验。该公司同意从奥特曼支持的一家初创公司Helion购买最早在2028年提供的核能，该公司致力于核聚变技术——大多数专家认为该技术离商业化还有很长的路要走。今年早些时候，亚马逊还与电力生产商Talen Energy达成协议，将其数据中心直接连接到宾夕法尼亚州现有的一座核电站，绕过电网。该协议不会增加国家的核电产能——事实上，批评者认为这会减少其他客户可用的电力——但它表明，核能已进入这些公司的视野。</p><p>其他协议可能会导致新的核反应堆建设。Alphabet、微软、亚马逊和钢铁制造商纽柯正在与总部位于北卡罗来纳州的公用事业公司Duke Energy合作，探索新的融资机制，“专门设计用于降低核电和其他清洁能源的长期成本”。这可能包括承诺的“关税”，以为新电厂提供部分资金。Duke尚未宣布新电厂的建设计划，但该公用事业公司可能需要核电来满足其不断增长的电力需求。去年，Duke增加的客户数量创下了历史新高，其对2030年前新电力需求的预期比两年前高出八倍。“新的核电无疑将在Duke Energy的清洁能源未来中发挥作用，”Duke的首席核官员凯尔文·亨德森在向《巴伦周刊》发表的一份声明中说。</p><p>科技公司拒绝接受关于其战略的采访。一些核能专家对它们是否会承担足够的成本来启动核电建设持怀疑态度，认为这离不开更多的政府支持。尽管如此，经济和环境的双重需求已经将核能重新推向了聚光灯下。未来几年将决定这项技术是否准备好再次大放异彩。</p><p><em>文章源自Barron&#39;s《Get Ready for the New Nuclear Age. It Could Help Solve America’s Electricity Problems.》</em></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/bb4e92a93fa4d96a5076fc8109128d6d","relate_stocks":{"OKLO":"Oklo Inc.","CEG":"Constellation Energy Corp","DUK":"杜克能源","VST":"Vistra Energy Corp.","CCJ":"Cameco Corp"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151891108","content_text":"人工智能和电动汽车正在消耗巨大的电力，而 Constellation Energy Corp 和 Vistra Energy Corp.可能会因此受益。在美国宾夕法尼亚州哈里斯堡以南的萨斯奎哈纳河上一座狭窄的小岛上，一件非凡的事情正在发生。曾在1979年发生过历史性放射性泄漏事故的三哩岛核电站，正在悄悄为重启做准备。三四年内，这座未受损的反应堆可能会再次启动，标志着美国能源新时代的到来。总部位于巴尔的摩的Constellation Energy公司首席执行官乔·多明格斯 (Joe Dominguez) 表示：“这将具有极大的象征意义。”该公司拥有三哩岛的反应堆。1979年的事故让核电行业吸取了许多教训，如今，多明格斯表示，三哩岛也可能成为“核电重新引起人们兴趣的发源地”。在美国，核电复兴的星星之火已经点燃。政府正在向核电行业注入数十亿美元，科技巨头如比尔·盖茨和OpenAI的萨姆·奥特曼也在支持新兴公司，公众对核电的支持率显著上升。核电行业复苏的一个迹象是Constellation的股价表现。这家美国最大的核电站拥有者几年前还在向州监管机构请求救助；现在，该公司的业绩蒸蒸日上，其股价在过去一年中上涨了 70%。随着政府支持的增加以及公用事业公司提高对核电站所有者的支付，Constellation和类似的得州发电企业Vistra的股价预计将继续上涨。其他上市的核电相关公司，如加拿大的铀矿和核技术公司Cameco，也可能受益于铀需求的增长。就在核能时代似乎即将走向衰落之际，核能的复苏到来了。美国 94 座核反应堆的发电量占美国总发电量的 18.6%，足以为 7200 万户家庭供电。核能是美国最大的无碳能源。但核能占总发电量的份额在 20 世纪 90 年代达到 20% 以上的峰值后，多年来一直在下降。2012 年至 2021 年期间，美国有十几座核反应堆关闭。  形势正在转变。原定于 2021 年至 2025 年关闭的六座反应堆已通过州和联邦政府的行动得以挽救。三座已关闭并退役的反应堆可能会重新启动，这是以前从未发生过的。盖茨的核能公司 TerraPower 正在怀俄明州一座退役煤电厂的场地上准备建造一座新反应堆，政府资助资金超过 20 亿美元，两家奥特曼支持的公司正在测试核技术。拜登政府宣布了到 2050 年将国家核电容量提高两倍的目标。核电复兴的最大推动力在于美国的电力需求在经历了十多年停滞后开始增长。在某些地区，需求正在激增。电动汽车、为人工智能提供动力的数据中心以及推动“美国制造”工业繁荣的新工厂都需要大量的电力。公用事业公司正争相确保可靠的电力供应，并愿意为此支付高额费用。覆盖中大西洋和中西部地区的电网运营商在7月同意将支付给发电厂的容量费用提高九倍，这为发电厂所有者带来了数十亿美元的意外之财。在过去的几个世纪里，这种新能源可能来自煤炭。但美国的气候目标更倾向于不排放二氧化碳的能源，而核能、太阳能和风能就是其中之一。在这些能源中，核能作为一种无碳排放的能源，具有无论日晒风吹都能持续发电的优势。“如果我们要实现能源转型，我们需要相当于数百座胡佛大坝的稳定电力，而我们现在已经不再建大坝了。”伊利诺伊大学教授、前能源部最高核电官员凯蒂·赫夫说道。赫夫在政府任职期间，在核能政策方面取得了显著成果，阻止了核电站的关闭，并升级了老旧设施以提高性能。不过，核能复兴的故事也有一个很大的警告。尽管拜登政府和各州政府已经阻止了一些核电站关闭，并敦促停运站点的所有者重新启动核反应堆，但美国要实现更大的目标仍然面临巨大挑战。将核能产能提高三倍需要建设大约200座大型反应堆，而目前没有一个新的反应堆正在建设中。即便在年底前宣布新项目，规划和建设也可能需要十年时间。尽管联邦和州政府的补贴越来越多，具备建设核反应堆实力和经验的公用事业公司却尚未准备好承诺启动大型项目。美国能源部在一份报告中承认，除非有更多的纳税人支持或创新的资金模式，否则该行业可能陷入僵局。拥有全球最多反应堆的美国，正面临被赶超的风险。全球目前有64座反应堆在建，其中约30座位于中国，且中国最近批准新反应堆的速度达到了每年10座以上。法国、俄罗斯和韩国也有自己的雄心勃勃的政府支持计划。向艾森豪威尔学习在核能发展的大部分历史中，美国一直引领着这项技术的开发和部署。商用核反应堆行业起源于美国国防部二战时期的核武器计划，其基本组成部分并没有发生太大变化。在核反应堆内部，充满铀的管道为核裂变过程提供动力，即中子与铀原子碰撞，释放能量并引发更多反应。美国反应堆使用水来控制温度。反应堆产生的热量将水变成蒸汽，推动涡轮机旋转并发电。1958 年，德怀特·艾森豪威尔总统在宾夕法尼亚州希平波特为第一座核电站举行了落成典礼，并在演讲中赞扬了美国“让原子能为人类谋福利，而不是毁灭”的能力。到了 20 世纪 60 年代，美国已建成数十座核电站，能够为数百万家庭供电。 但核电的推广并非一帆风顺。核能与核武器的联系使其长期以来备受争议。尽管安全措施有所改进，但仍未能完全消除公众对放射性泄漏的担忧。这些担忧在1979年部分成为现实，当时三哩岛的一个反应堆部分熔毁。事故迫使人们撤离，并引发健康担忧，尽管核监管委员会表示，事故中的“少量放射性释放对工人和公众没有可检测的健康影响”。1986年切尔诺贝利事故和2011年福岛事故更具毁灭性，进一步减缓了新核电站的建设进程。还有其他问题。政府尚未解决如何处理核电站产生的核废料。美国人不希望核废料存放在自己的社区或通过它们的社区运输，因此许多核废料目前被封存在靠近反应堆的混凝土中。对辐射和放射性废物的担忧是导致1970年代后期新核反应堆推广放缓的原因之一。核反应堆的总数在1990年达到112座的峰值，此后逐渐减少。近年来，经济压力成为迫使核电站关闭的最大因素。天然气已成为美国最大的电力来源，廉价天然气和日益增长的可再生能源使批发电价下降，导致核电站在电力拍卖中难以竞争。没有参与熔毁事故的三哩岛反应堆在2019年因财务问题关闭。当时，多明格斯表示，该反应堆每年亏损超过1亿美元。自那以来，最大的变化是政府对核电的支持发生了改变。《通胀削减法案》包括与风能和太阳能相媲美的核能税收抵免。这些抵免基本上为核电站支付的电价设定了一个底线，远高于运营成本。能源部还直接资助了濒临关闭的核电站。加州最后一座核电站、为该州提供9%电力的迪亚布洛峡谷核电站原定于今年和明年关闭其两个反应堆，但11亿美元的联邦资金将帮助其再运行数年。政府领导人可能正在顺应公众的意见。皮尤研究中心发现，2023年有57%的美国人支持增加更多的核电站，而2020年这一比例为43%。共和党人对核电的支持度较高，但民主党人对这一行业的接受度也在逐渐上升。“你可以看到一代人的观念转变——从那些在核能与核武器计划相提并论的年代成长起来的人，转向没有那种历史包袱的年轻一代，”美国爱达荷国家实验室主任约翰·瓦格纳说。这个由政府运营的实验室是75年前核能发电的发源地，现在正进行新的核电技术实验。新一代有着自己的存在性恐惧——气候变化——并且他们越来越认为核电是解决方案。尽管太阳能和风能的发电量在增长，但这些能源是间歇性的，而大多数锂电池只能持续运行四个小时——不足以让美国人在夜晚度过用电需求。全球政界人士都在拥抱核能。在去年12月于迪拜举行的COP28气候大会上，包括美国在内的20多个国家同意努力到2050年将核能产能增加三倍。签署国包括日本，这个国家在福岛事故后暂停了所有的核电站。评估获胜者 “这是一个令人着迷的时期，可能是我在这个行业40年来看到的最好供需基本面，”Cameco首席执行官蒂姆·吉策尔说。Cameco公司正在重新开放因福岛核电站事故关闭的铀矿。随着铀价上涨，该公司的股票也随之上升。分析师预计明年该公司的收益大约翻倍。这种炙手可热的增长率还没有完全体现在股价中，当前市盈率为预期收益的29倍。在核能复兴中，其他的大赢家是现有反应堆的所有者；他们将从电价上涨中受益。Constellation 和 Vistra 处于特别有利的地位，因为它们作为独立发电商运营，其利润不像传统公用事业那样受到监管。他们的反应堆越来越有利可图，其股票市盈率低于市场平均水平。他们还可能无需举债建造新反应堆，就能增加核电产能。Constellation公司的多明格斯认为，通过现代化现有电厂并重启停运的电厂，公司可以增加1.5到2吉瓦的产能——大约相当于胡佛大坝的发电量。密歇根州正在展开一个老反应堆是否能够重启的首个试点项目。霍尔泰克国际公司（Holtec International）是一家通常通过退役核电站赚取利润的公司，现在计划重启位于密歇根湖岸边的一个名为Palisades的停运反应堆。霍尔泰克的政府事务和通讯主管帕特里克·奥布莱恩表示，该公司在2022年从公用事业公司Entergy接管这个场地时，并没有预期会重启反应堆。但密歇根州州长格雷琴·惠特默的办公室坚持要求他们考虑这个问题，而且该州愿意提供部分资金来促成此事。密歇根州承诺到2040年使其电力网络实现脱碳。州官员意识到，如果不包括能够为80万客户供电的Palisades核电站，将会是一个重大挫折。该州首席气候与能源战略官卡拉·库克表示：“如果不让这个设施重新上线，达成州的气候目标将非常困难。”该州已承诺提供3亿美元支持Palisades，联邦政府也有条件批准了15亿美元的贷款担保。根据许可审批的进度，Palisades有望在2025年10月重新投入运行。该公司还申请建造两个小型反应堆，可能为额外约50万人提供电力。并非所有人都对此表示欢迎。塞拉俱乐部（Sierra Club）认为，重启Palisades意味着更多危险的核废料将存放在密歇根湖岸边。该环保组织还表示，州政府正在浪费本可以用于更好选择上的资金，包括更快速地推广太阳能和风能。三哩岛可能是下一个重新启用的退役地点。最近的一次工程评估带来了好消息。“设备的状况与我们在2019年提前关闭它时一样好，”多明格斯说。他补充道，如果公司继续推进，重启过程可能需要36到48个月。NextEra公司首席执行官约翰·凯特查姆最近对投资者表示，他们公司正在“考虑”重启爱荷华州的一个退役反应堆。升级和重启现有电厂可能在未来十年内将核电产能增加约5%。要实现政府三倍增产的目标，美国需要开展一项规模比曼哈顿计划大几倍并持续数十年的努力。这样将耗费数千亿美元，并需要培训多达37.5万名工人。最近的历史对此并不看好。在过去28年里，美国仅建造了三座核反应堆。其中两座位于佐治亚州奥古斯塔附近，分别在2023年和2024年开始运营。在启动仪式上，能源部长詹妮弗·格兰霍姆充满希望地宣称：“两个完成了，还剩198个！”来自乔治亚州的教训 接下来的198个反应堆不会轻易建成。乔治亚州的反应堆，即Vogtle 3和4，提供了一个警示性的故事。最初预计在2016年和2017年完工，它们却遭遇了严重的延误和成本超支，估计高达200亿美元。设计这些反应堆的西屋电气公司在项目中途申请了破产保护。有时，运送到工地的反应堆部件甚至无法正确组装在一起，负责部分建设工作的所有者南方公司代表乔·克莱查说。克莱查表示，根本问题在于建造新工业设施的首个版本总是困难的，并且往往会受到延误和成本超支的困扰。在建造了足够多的核反应堆之后，施工团队解决问题的经验积累下来，成本节约才会开始显现。他现在为一家名为The Nuclear Company的初创公司工作，正在推动几个大型标准化反应堆的发展。佐治亚州的成本超支大部分将由电费用户支付，而这些用户已经面临电价上涨的压力。这让佐治亚州的监管机构陷入了两难境地。新的数据中心和工厂正在导致电力需求超出他们之前的预测，但他们对在没有为消费者提供保障的情况下批准新电厂持谨慎态度。“我们有能力建造更多的大型核电机组，而且我们确实需要这些产能，”佐治亚州公共服务委员会副主席蒂姆·埃科尔斯在给《巴伦周刊》的一封电子邮件中写道。“但我们不能像以前那样做——我们需要保障。”现在的问题是谁来提供这种保障。在核计划最为激进的国家，如中国，政府资助的项目为工人团队提供资金，使他们能够在不同的工地快速高效地建造相同的反应堆。他们现在能够在七年或更短的时间内以远低于美国的成本建造反应堆。美国采取了不同的做法，向私人公司提供补助金和贷款担保。美国能源部的贷款项目办公室正在审查价值650亿美元的各类核能项目贷款申请。值得关注的参与者这五家公司各自针对核能繁荣制定了明确的计划。其中一些公司已经取得了长足的发展。公司 / 代号股价今年以来回报市值 (十億)2025年市盈率评论 Cameco Corp  / CCJ$38.10−11.6%$16.628.8北美最大的铀生产商 Constellation Energy Corp / CEG176.0750.6%55.519.7美国最多核反应堆的拥有者 杜克能源  / DUK116.8520.4%90.118.5一家大型公用事业公司计划建造更多核反应堆 Oklo Inc. / OKLO5.82−44.9%0.7N/AOpenAI 首席执行官 Sam Altman 支持的核能创新者 Vistra Energy Corp.  / VST75.8396.9%26.111.6一家正在扩建核电站的跨州电力生产商Note: E=estimate. N/A=not applicable来源: Bloomberg这些资金已经激发了创新和竞争的浪潮。一些公司正在设计使用新方法来生产和储存核能的反应堆，这些反应堆可以快速建造成模块化段。新兴公司包括比尔·盖茨于2008年创办的TerraPower公司和由OpenAI的奥特曼担任主席的上市公司Oklo。这些公司表示，它们能够比大多数现有的行业参与者更高效和更安全地运营，但它们距离生产反应堆还有数年时间。它们的设计尚未获得核管理委员会的批准。一些人认为，美国可能犯了错误，向几家公司提供贷款，而不是直接资助大规模建造标准化反应堆。“我认为他们的初衷是好的，”美国核能学会国际委员会主席、核能技术公司Lightbridge首席执行官塞思·格雷说。“但从冷静的现实来看，其他国家做出了更好的决定。美国可以迎头赶上，也可以做得很好，但我们确实有点着急，因为我们昨天就需要这些能源了。”美国能源部没有回应格雷的批评。赫夫表示，能源部认识到直接资助是一种“更可靠得多的策略”，可以快速建造核电，但这种方法受到国会拨款的限制。尽管如此，赫夫和其他官员认为，核能的未来之路可能涉及一些不寻常的参与者。大科技公司对核能表现出了特别的兴趣，尤其是在数据中心和其他应用领域。核反应堆可以支持巨大的电力需求，包括最苛刻的人工智能应用，而不会增加碳排放。所有大科技公司都有减少碳排放的目标，但随着它们投资于耗电量巨大的人工智能，达成这一目标变得具有挑战性。为了控制自己的排放，这些科技巨头发现自己不能再做被动的电力消费者。微软正在招聘核能专家，并且愿意进行实验。该公司同意从奥特曼支持的一家初创公司Helion购买最早在2028年提供的核能，该公司致力于核聚变技术——大多数专家认为该技术离商业化还有很长的路要走。今年早些时候，亚马逊还与电力生产商Talen Energy达成协议，将其数据中心直接连接到宾夕法尼亚州现有的一座核电站，绕过电网。该协议不会增加国家的核电产能——事实上，批评者认为这会减少其他客户可用的电力——但它表明，核能已进入这些公司的视野。其他协议可能会导致新的核反应堆建设。Alphabet、微软、亚马逊和钢铁制造商纽柯正在与总部位于北卡罗来纳州的公用事业公司Duke Energy合作，探索新的融资机制，“专门设计用于降低核电和其他清洁能源的长期成本”。这可能包括承诺的“关税”，以为新电厂提供部分资金。Duke尚未宣布新电厂的建设计划，但该公用事业公司可能需要核电来满足其不断增长的电力需求。去年，Duke增加的客户数量创下了历史新高，其对2030年前新电力需求的预期比两年前高出八倍。“新的核电无疑将在Duke Energy的清洁能源未来中发挥作用，”Duke的首席核官员凯尔文·亨德森在向《巴伦周刊》发表的一份声明中说。科技公司拒绝接受关于其战略的采访。一些核能专家对它们是否会承担足够的成本来启动核电建设持怀疑态度，认为这离不开更多的政府支持。尽管如此，经济和环境的双重需求已经将核能重新推向了聚光灯下。未来几年将决定这项技术是否准备好再次大放异彩。文章源自Barron's《Get Ready for the New Nuclear Age. It Could Help Solve America’s Electricity 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目录： 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 二、A/H股当前基本概况对比 三、A/H股交易机制对比 四、在A/H同时上市的公司 五、数据来源 &nbsp; 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 有道是磨刀不误砍柴工，要了解港股、A股市场，必须要熟悉一些顺手好用的投研和信息获取工具。若能好好利用下面的网站和工具，事半功倍并不难达到。 &nbsp; （1）公告网站 大部分炒股软件都有公司公告，无论新手老手都可以通过港股交易所、美国证监会网站和上交所、深交所拿到第一手的公告资料。 【港股】香港联交所披露易：<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lgrb\">http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=601788</a> &nbsp; 【美股】美国证监会SEC的网站上有一套EDGAR系统看公告：<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lgrb\">http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=601788</a> &nbsp; 【A股】上海证券交易所网站：<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lgrb\">http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?product</a>","listText":"想知道港股和A股的最新对比吗？2018年，A股和港股到底哪个更值得投资呢？作为理性的投资者，你应该马上收藏这份（大部分数据截止今年2月底）最新AH股对比表和股票投研工具大全，用图表从宏观看清A/H股的实时情况，巧用工具从微观审视每一支股票！ 目录： 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 二、A/H股当前基本概况对比 三、A/H股交易机制对比 四、在A/H同时上市的公司 五、数据来源 &nbsp; 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 有道是磨刀不误砍柴工，要了解港股、A股市场，必须要熟悉一些顺手好用的投研和信息获取工具。若能好好利用下面的网站和工具，事半功倍并不难达到。 &nbsp; （1）公告网站 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【美股】美国证监会SEC的网站上有一套EDGAR系统看公告：http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=601788 【A股】上海证券交易所网站：http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?product","images":[{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/e1e73428105733d6ba01275686801c92"},{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/0b4443757e2d91c002524b3cefa65c10"},{"img":"https://static.laohu8.com/3335701a3878b8f9faf0569debda3866"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166293","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":19,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2274,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":902201527,"gmtCreate":1559658515469,"gmtModify":1704698759718,"author":{"id":"3473910588676310","authorId":"3473910588676310","name":"维克多123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0be78881a5953fc13169c6cb881089","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473910588676310","authorIdStr":"3473910588676310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"$康希诺生物-B(06185)$是不是市值错了？这股就跟期权一样，只要一样疫苗商业化，就能盈利","listText":"$康希诺生物-B(06185)$是不是市值错了？这股就跟期权一样，只要一样疫苗商业化，就能盈利","text":"$康希诺生物-B(06185)$是不是市值错了？这股就跟期权一样，只要一样疫苗商业化，就能盈利","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/902201527","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356161671950600,"gmtCreate":1727963087146,"gmtModify":1727963089714,"author":{"id":"3473910588676310","authorId":"3473910588676310","name":"维克多123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0be78881a5953fc13169c6cb881089","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473910588676310","authorIdStr":"3473910588676310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"怪不得","listText":"怪不得","text":"怪不得","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aaed4732414f87d3e2cf8261fa6b5d2f","width":"1088","height":"1211"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356161671950600","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":356151002488944,"gmtCreate":1727960398426,"gmtModify":1727960400730,"author":{"id":"3473910588676310","authorId":"3473910588676310","name":"维克多123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0be78881a5953fc13169c6cb881089","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473910588676310","authorIdStr":"3473910588676310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","listText":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","text":"这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/356151002488944","repostId":"2462992888","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2462992888","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1724675400,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2462992888?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-08-26 20:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NANO Nuclear Energy: The Concept Is Very Promising, But Can They Pull It Off?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2462992888","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"NANO Nuclear Energy is designing small-scale nuclear fission reactors, Zeus and Odin, for various applications.The company operates in the microreactor market, which is smaller than the SMR market, wi","content":"<html><body><ul><li>NANO Nuclear Energy is designing small-scale nuclear fission reactors, Zeus and Odin, for various applications.</li><li>The company operates in the microreactor market, which is smaller than the SMR market, with plans for portable and scalable reactors.</li><li>Most of the competition is offering significantly larger reactors so it is likely to have its own niche, but reactor sales are not likely this decade.</li><li>Other business lines are also mostly in the design stage although more likely to materialize earlier, still the package is difficult to assess from an investor point of view.</li><li>It should be noted that the company has no problem attracting private capital.</li></ul><p><figure><picture><img fetchpriority=\"high\" height=\"1119px\" sizes=\"(max-width: 768px) calc(100vw - 36px), (max-width: 1024px) calc(100vw - 132px), (max-width: 1200px) calc(66.6vw - 72px), 600px\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w750\" srcset=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w1536 1536w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w1280 1280w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w1080 1080w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w750 750w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w640 640w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w480 480w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w320 320w, https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg?io=getty-c-w240 240w\" width=\"1536px\"/></picture><figcaption><p>Jezperklauzen</p></figcaption></figure></p> <h2>NANO Nuclear Energy Overview</h2> <p>NANO Nuclear Energy (<span>NASDAQ:NNE</span>) is a company that is designing two small-scale nuclear fission reactors or so-called microreactors. These are still in the design phase and commercial products are not likely to emerge this decade.</p> <p>Other business lines are likely to appear sooner, but the economics are difficult to assess, so it's hard from an investor point of view to formulate projections given the lack of hard data. This is more for specialists who can assess the viability of the company's reactor designs.</p> <p>Given the significant amount of private finance the company receives, there seem to be plenty of such people, which should provide a modicum of confidence.</p> <h2>Business</h2> <p>The company has four key business lines:</p> <ul> <li>Micro Nuclear Reactor Business; developing next-generation portable nuclear microreactors, the Zeus and the Odin.</li> <li>Fuel Fabrication Business; developing a domestic<span> HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) fuel fabrication facility.</span> </li> <li>Fuel Transportation Business scheduled for 2026.</li> <li>Nuclear Consultation Services, either through acquisition or internal development.</li> </ul> <h2><strong>Microreactors</strong></h2> <p>The market for SMRs (small modular reactors, that is, modules up to 300MWe capacity per unit) has players like NuScale (SMR), which already has a certified design.</p> <p>Its Power Module is designed to generate 77MWe per module, and can be deployed in configurations of 4, 6, or 12 modules.</p> <p>The SMR market is actually quite lively as there are several players with plans in this space (Carbon Credits):</p> <blockquote><p>SMRs are under construction or in the licensing stage in various countries including Japan, Canada, China, Russia, UK, and the United States. Over 80 commercial SMR designs worldwide target diverse outputs and applications such as electricity, hybrid energy systems, heating, water desalination, and industrial steam.</p></blockquote> <p>One should keep in mind that most of these pertain to the SMR (small modular reactors) market while Nano operates in a segment of this, the microreactors (up to 10MWe), which are much smaller still and basically a replacement for diesel generators.</p> <p>Much of the SMR market offers much larger modules compared to Nano, so these can't be considered real competition.</p> <p>Nano plans to operate on the scale of microreactors that generate between 1 and 10MW (or according to some sources, 20MW) of thermal energy that is used directly as heat or converted to electric power.</p> <p>Applications are situations like:</p> <ul> <li>District heating</li> <li>Water desalination</li> <li>Hydrogen fuel production</li> <li>Emergency use cases like outages or natural disasters, as microreactors are even portable. They can be rapidly deployed and are easily scalable, so adaptable to many situations.</li> <li>Microreactors can supplement microgrids and bare integrable with renewable energies.</li> <li>Microreactors can operate for up to 15 years.</li> </ul> <p>In fact, what Nano tries to do (hence its name) is to build even smaller reactors that provide between 1 and 2MW of electricity, and they're actually designing two of these, the Zeus and the Odin.</p> <p>The company does have competition in the form of Oklo (OKLO), the microreactor company that also recently enjoyed its IPO (at $15.50 per share) and is backed by OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, who functions as its chair, and it merged with his SPAC for the IPO.</p> <p>That's no surprise as Oklo has a LOI to supply up to 500MW of power to Equinox, a data center company. As one might surmise from that 500MW figure, Oklo's reactors are significantly larger than Nano's.</p> <p>The Oklo liquid-metal-cooled, metal-fueled fast reactor (called Aurora) runs on recycled waste fuel, which is a significant innovation running up to 10 years without refueling.</p> <p>Oklo's reactors will provide 15MW of electrical power, have the potential to scale to 50MWe, and will typically be used for powering data centers (and also stuff like oilfield operations like the deal it has with newcleo).</p> <p>Oklo's plans seem to be further along as they already have a pipeline for some 1,350 MW of microreactor capacity as of this month, a 93% increase from about 700 MW in July 2023 and (Carbon Credits):</p> <blockquote><p>Oklo received a site use permit from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2019, secured fuel from Idaho National Laboratory, and submitted a license application to build its first plant. Oklo aims to bring its first plant online before the decade's end.</p></blockquote> <h2>Zeus Microreactor</h2> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><picture><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/23/191022-1724426319252311.png\"/></picture><figcaption><p>NNE Prospectus</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The Zeus microreactor is a solid-core battery reactor under development by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NANO\">NANO Nuclear Energy Inc.</a> The company has filed multiple provisional patent applications with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) to protect the intellectual property surrounding the Zeus reactor. The main characteristics are:</p> <ul> <li>The reactor core is completely sealed and utilizes a highly conductive moderator matrix for fission energy dissipation. Heat is extracted from outside the vessel using a novel proprietary technology.</li> <li>The lack of internal fluid in the core eliminates common accident scenarios such as loss of coolant or loss of flow. This \"walk-away safe\" design emphasizes stability and safety, making it suitable for remote locations with minimal intervention.</li> <li>The Zeus core and power conversion system are designed to fit within a standard shipping container for easy transport to remote sites. The absence of in-core fluid further reduces the system's footprint by eliminating the need for components like pumps and pipes.</li> <li>The Zeus reactor employs an open-air Brayton cycle for power conversion.</li> <li>The Zeus core is engineered to deliver constant power for a minimum of 10 years at full power.</li> <li>The microreactor prototype can harness thermal energy for direct heat applications or convert it to electricity, catering to diverse needs.</li> <li>The design incorporates conventional materials and multiple off-the-shelf components to expedite time-to-market and reduce costs.</li> <li>The prototype aims to provide clean electricity, aligning with growing interest in renewable energy. Its design also supports non-electric applications like hydrogen fuel production.</li> </ul> <h2>Odin Microreactor</h2> <p>The Odin is the company's second reactor design with the following characteristics:</p> <ul> <li>A Low-Pressure Coolant System reduces stress on structural components, ultimately enhancing reliability and operational lifespan.</li> <li>A Simplified Reactivity Control that is designed for high reliability and robustness by minimizing moving parts.</li> <li>The reactor functions at temperatures exceeding those of traditional water-cooled reactors, leading to more resilient operation and improved power conversion efficiency for electricity generation.</li> <li>The design prioritizes the use of natural convection for heat transfer to the power conversion cycle during full power operation. This approach also enhances decay heat removal during shutdowns, operational transients, and off-normal conditions.</li> <li>The Odin is designed to utilize conventional fuel with an enrichment of up to 20%. This strategy helps to minimize the scope and cost of the development and testing program and leverage existing knowledge and infrastructure related to conventional nuclear fuel.</li> <li>ALIP (annular linear induction pump) cooling technology, an electromagnetic pump system, forms a crucial element of the Odin reactor. This technology was acquired from Dr. Carlos O. Maidana in June 2024 and is expected to be further refined through an SBIR Phase III project. There is an expectation that the ALIP technology can be commercialized for third-party use (in salt-based coolant reactors).</li> </ul> <h2><strong>Progress</strong></h2> <p>Both the Odin and the Zeus reactors are transitioning from the design stage into the physical test work phase. This involves:</p> <ul> <li>Constructing initial rigs to validate design models.</li> <li>Ensuring the accuracy of the models used in the design process.</li> <li>Optimizing the materials and dimensions of reactor components for performance and safety.</li> </ul> <p>NNE has completed external design audits for both the Odin and Zeus reactors, conducted by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These audits provide valuable external validation and design assistance.</p> <p>NNE believes that the ALIP technology, beyond its role in the Odin reactor, has the potential for independent commercialization within a year as a component for various salt-based coolant reactors used in diverse sectors.</p> <p>From the July 2024 prospectus:</p> <blockquote><p>We estimate that our microreactor demonstration work will be conducted between 2024 and 2026, our microreactor licensing application will be processed between 2026 and 2031, and our microreactors will be launched between 2030 and 2031.</p></blockquote> <p>The first interest from abroad emerged with the company signing a MOU with Rwanda, from the PR:</p> <blockquote><p>The MOU establishes a framework under which NANO Nuclear work alongside the RAEB to facilitate the introduction and eventual integration of small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, like 'ZEUS' and 'ODIN', NANO Nuclear 's next generation microreactors in development, throughout the Republic of Rwanda. NANO Nuclear will also be responsible for enabling the development of the country's entire ecosystem of nuclear energy systems. This includes providing technical assistance, training and educational programs to develop Rwanda's technical expertise in the nuclear energy industry.</p></blockquote> <h2>HALEU Business</h2> <p>HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) is a type of nuclear fuel with a higher concentration of the fissile isotope U-235 compared to traditional low-enriched uranium. HALEU is central to NNE's strategy because:</p> <ul> <li>HALEU is necessary to fuel the next generation of advanced nuclear reactors, including NNE's microreactors.</li> <li>By developing a HALEU fuel fabrication facility, NNE aims to become a vertically integrated nuclear energy company, controlling the fuel supply for its reactors.</li> <li>The limited availability of HALEU presents a significant market opportunity. NNE aims to become a key supplier of this critical material to other companies developing advanced reactors.</li> </ul> <h2>Fuel Transportation Business</h2> <p>We give you this from a recent PR:</p> <blockquote><p>Advanced Fuel Transportation Inc. (AFT), a NANO Nuclear subsidiary, is led by former executives from the largest transportation company in the world aiming to build a North American transportation company that will provide commercial quantities of HALEU fuel to small modular reactors, microreactor companies, national laboratories, military, and DOE programs. Through NANO Nuclear, AFT is the exclusive licensee of a patented high-capacity HALEU fuel transportation basket developed by three major U.S. national nuclear laboratories and funded by the Department of Energy. Assuming development and commercialization, AFT is expected to form part of the only vertically integrated nuclear fuel business of its kind in North America.</p></blockquote> <h2>Consultation business</h2> <p>In the prospectus, management argued that if they were unable to acquire a consultation business, they would build one, spending $2M over 12 months hiring specialists. It looks like they could have their first customer in the form of a MoU with Rwanda.</p> <h2>Financials</h2> <p>Here are the company's operations:</p> <p><figure contenteditable=\"false\"><span><img contenteditable=\"false\" loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https://static.seekingalpha.com/uploads/2024/8/24/191022-17245052938461099.png\"/></span><figcaption><p>NNE Q2/24 10-Q</p></figcaption></figure></p> <p>The company doesn't produce revenues and isn't likely to produce any revenue anytime soon, so this is all about cash flow. Operational cash outflow was $5.95M for the last 9 months, so it's roughly $8M on a 12-month basis (subject to change when they acquire or build their consulting business or reactor prototypes).</p> <p>The company raised $10.46M (NET) from its IPO at $4, and the company had $13.8M at the end of Q2, but they added $20M in a new round of financing in July or $18.6M net, so the company now has $32.4M in funds, which should last them 2-3 years depending on activities.</p> <p>One of these activities involved the recent acquisition of a new headquarters for $1.71M.</p> <p>That latest July financing is pretty amazing, as it was overalloted at $20 per share, while the IPO price was just $4.</p> <h2>Risks</h2> <p>There are multiple risks:</p> <ul> <li>Developing new reactor types, however promising these might seem, might throw up unexpected hurdles, technical problems, delays, and disappointments.</li> <li>Obtaining permits and licenses for nuclear facilities is a time-consuming and complex process with stringent safety and environmental standards.</li> <li>Building and operating microreactors require significant capital investment, presenting a challenge for funding and cost management.</li> <li>The market for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors is still developing. There is no guarantee of market growth aligning with NNE's expectations.</li> <li>There are public concerns about nuclear energy, so ensuring transparency and emphasizing the safety and environmental benefits of its microreactor technology is paramount.</li> </ul> <h2>NNE Stock Valuation</h2> <p>Here is what management argued in the prospectus:</p> <blockquote><p>Notwithstanding the foregoing, our limited operating history and early stage of business makes an evaluation of our business and prospects very difficult... Our new and unproven technology model will necessitate a significant infusion of additional capital for successful deployment, even following this offering.</p></blockquote> <p>Indeed. The reactors are unlikely to generate any revenues this decade, and the prospects of the other businesses are also very difficult to gauge as they have to be set up. Here is what they argue (in the prospectus, once again):</p> <blockquote><p>Our technical team is world class, with simple and realizable reactor concepts that do not require exotic fuels and who are aware of all the difficulties faced by almost every other reactor company who has chosen alternative designs.</p></blockquote> <p>If that's true (and knowledgeable investors are betting on this with their pocketbooks) they could have an amazing business next decade, but it's a long way to get there, and they will have to navigate quite a few obstacles.</p> <p>On August 13, 2024, there were 30.14M shares outstanding, 4.1M outstanding options and 1M warrants for a fully diluted count of 35.2M, which yields a market cap of some $350M (at around $10 per share).</p> <p>That's not a negligible market cap for a company with revenue years off.</p> <h2>Conclusion</h2> <p>The stock is not unlike a pre-clinical stage biotech company with years of trials (and capital needs) ahead of it, facing an uncertain outcome.</p> <p>We would argue that this is a stock for those who are either familiar with (and have confidence in) the people running it and/or are intimately familiar with the technicalities of their plans, most notably with respect to the two reactor designs.</p> <p>Given the fact that they managed to gather a notable amount of private money, one could argue that there are such people, willing and able to vote with their pocketbooks.</p> <p>For the rest of us, it doesn't seem a good idea to put money in something where returns are years off and outcomes are uncertain and difficult to assess.</p> <p>There will likely be a significant market for microreactors, but it's a new concept and the ones this company proposes are still in the design stage, and it's difficult for us to assess what hurdles are waiting on their journey to fully commercial propositions, or what the economics of these look like.</p> <div></div> <p>One should also entertain the possibility that even if the reactors become a home run, investors might not share in that, depending on the amount of financing and dilution that could lay ahead.</p></body></html>","source":"seekingalpha","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNANO Nuclear Energy: The Concept Is Very Promising, But Can They Pull It Off?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-08-26 20:30 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717017-nano-nuclear-energy-the-concept-is-very-promising-but-can-they-pull-it-off><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>NANO Nuclear Energy is designing small-scale nuclear fission reactors, Zeus and Odin, for various applications.The company operates in the microreactor market, which is smaller than the SMR market, ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717017-nano-nuclear-energy-the-concept-is-very-promising-but-can-they-pull-it-off\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.seekingalpha.com/cdn/s3/uploads/getty_images/494432593/image_494432593.jpg","relate_stocks":{"OKLO":"Oklo Inc.","BK4182":"重型电气设备","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","NNE":"NANO Nuclear Energy Inc","SMR":"NuScale Power","BK4588":"碎股","BK4081":"电力公用事业","NET":"Cloudflare, Inc.","AFT":"Apollo Senior Floating Rate Fund","NANO":"NANO Nuclear Energy Inc.","BK4116":"互联网服务与基础架构","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4560":"网络安全概念","LU2286300806.USD":"Allianz Cyber Security AT Acc USD","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4717017-nano-nuclear-energy-the-concept-is-very-promising-but-can-they-pull-it-off","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/5a36db9d73b4222bc376d24ccc48c8a4","article_id":"2462992888","content_text":"NANO Nuclear Energy is designing small-scale nuclear fission reactors, Zeus and Odin, for various applications.The company operates in the microreactor market, which is smaller than the SMR market, with plans for portable and scalable reactors.Most of the competition is offering significantly larger reactors so it is likely to have its own niche, but reactor sales are not likely this decade.Other business lines are also mostly in the design stage although more likely to materialize earlier, still the package is difficult to assess from an investor point of view.It should be noted that the company has no problem attracting private capital.Jezperklauzen NANO Nuclear Energy Overview NANO Nuclear Energy (NASDAQ:NNE) is a company that is designing two small-scale nuclear fission reactors or so-called microreactors. These are still in the design phase and commercial products are not likely to emerge this decade. Other business lines are likely to appear sooner, but the economics are difficult to assess, so it's hard from an investor point of view to formulate projections given the lack of hard data. This is more for specialists who can assess the viability of the company's reactor designs. Given the significant amount of private finance the company receives, there seem to be plenty of such people, which should provide a modicum of confidence. Business The company has four key business lines:  Micro Nuclear Reactor Business; developing next-generation portable nuclear microreactors, the Zeus and the Odin. Fuel Fabrication Business; developing a domestic HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) fuel fabrication facility.  Fuel Transportation Business scheduled for 2026. Nuclear Consultation Services, either through acquisition or internal development.  Microreactors The market for SMRs (small modular reactors, that is, modules up to 300MWe capacity per unit) has players like NuScale (SMR), which already has a certified design. Its Power Module is designed to generate 77MWe per module, and can be deployed in configurations of 4, 6, or 12 modules. The SMR market is actually quite lively as there are several players with plans in this space (Carbon Credits): SMRs are under construction or in the licensing stage in various countries including Japan, Canada, China, Russia, UK, and the United States. Over 80 commercial SMR designs worldwide target diverse outputs and applications such as electricity, hybrid energy systems, heating, water desalination, and industrial steam. One should keep in mind that most of these pertain to the SMR (small modular reactors) market while Nano operates in a segment of this, the microreactors (up to 10MWe), which are much smaller still and basically a replacement for diesel generators. Much of the SMR market offers much larger modules compared to Nano, so these can't be considered real competition. Nano plans to operate on the scale of microreactors that generate between 1 and 10MW (or according to some sources, 20MW) of thermal energy that is used directly as heat or converted to electric power. Applications are situations like:  District heating Water desalination Hydrogen fuel production Emergency use cases like outages or natural disasters, as microreactors are even portable. They can be rapidly deployed and are easily scalable, so adaptable to many situations. Microreactors can supplement microgrids and bare integrable with renewable energies. Microreactors can operate for up to 15 years.  In fact, what Nano tries to do (hence its name) is to build even smaller reactors that provide between 1 and 2MW of electricity, and they're actually designing two of these, the Zeus and the Odin. The company does have competition in the form of Oklo (OKLO), the microreactor company that also recently enjoyed its IPO (at $15.50 per share) and is backed by OpenAI's CEO Sam Altman, who functions as its chair, and it merged with his SPAC for the IPO. That's no surprise as Oklo has a LOI to supply up to 500MW of power to Equinox, a data center company. As one might surmise from that 500MW figure, Oklo's reactors are significantly larger than Nano's. The Oklo liquid-metal-cooled, metal-fueled fast reactor (called Aurora) runs on recycled waste fuel, which is a significant innovation running up to 10 years without refueling. Oklo's reactors will provide 15MW of electrical power, have the potential to scale to 50MWe, and will typically be used for powering data centers (and also stuff like oilfield operations like the deal it has with newcleo). Oklo's plans seem to be further along as they already have a pipeline for some 1,350 MW of microreactor capacity as of this month, a 93% increase from about 700 MW in July 2023 and (Carbon Credits): Oklo received a site use permit from the U.S. Department of Energy in 2019, secured fuel from Idaho National Laboratory, and submitted a license application to build its first plant. Oklo aims to bring its first plant online before the decade's end. Zeus Microreactor NNE Prospectus The Zeus microreactor is a solid-core battery reactor under development by NANO Nuclear Energy Inc. The company has filed multiple provisional patent applications with the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) to protect the intellectual property surrounding the Zeus reactor. The main characteristics are:  The reactor core is completely sealed and utilizes a highly conductive moderator matrix for fission energy dissipation. Heat is extracted from outside the vessel using a novel proprietary technology. The lack of internal fluid in the core eliminates common accident scenarios such as loss of coolant or loss of flow. This \"walk-away safe\" design emphasizes stability and safety, making it suitable for remote locations with minimal intervention. The Zeus core and power conversion system are designed to fit within a standard shipping container for easy transport to remote sites. The absence of in-core fluid further reduces the system's footprint by eliminating the need for components like pumps and pipes. The Zeus reactor employs an open-air Brayton cycle for power conversion. The Zeus core is engineered to deliver constant power for a minimum of 10 years at full power. The microreactor prototype can harness thermal energy for direct heat applications or convert it to electricity, catering to diverse needs. The design incorporates conventional materials and multiple off-the-shelf components to expedite time-to-market and reduce costs. The prototype aims to provide clean electricity, aligning with growing interest in renewable energy. Its design also supports non-electric applications like hydrogen fuel production.  Odin Microreactor The Odin is the company's second reactor design with the following characteristics:  A Low-Pressure Coolant System reduces stress on structural components, ultimately enhancing reliability and operational lifespan. A Simplified Reactivity Control that is designed for high reliability and robustness by minimizing moving parts. The reactor functions at temperatures exceeding those of traditional water-cooled reactors, leading to more resilient operation and improved power conversion efficiency for electricity generation. The design prioritizes the use of natural convection for heat transfer to the power conversion cycle during full power operation. This approach also enhances decay heat removal during shutdowns, operational transients, and off-normal conditions. The Odin is designed to utilize conventional fuel with an enrichment of up to 20%. This strategy helps to minimize the scope and cost of the development and testing program and leverage existing knowledge and infrastructure related to conventional nuclear fuel. ALIP (annular linear induction pump) cooling technology, an electromagnetic pump system, forms a crucial element of the Odin reactor. This technology was acquired from Dr. Carlos O. Maidana in June 2024 and is expected to be further refined through an SBIR Phase III project. There is an expectation that the ALIP technology can be commercialized for third-party use (in salt-based coolant reactors).  Progress Both the Odin and the Zeus reactors are transitioning from the design stage into the physical test work phase. This involves:  Constructing initial rigs to validate design models. Ensuring the accuracy of the models used in the design process. Optimizing the materials and dimensions of reactor components for performance and safety.  NNE has completed external design audits for both the Odin and Zeus reactors, conducted by the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These audits provide valuable external validation and design assistance. NNE believes that the ALIP technology, beyond its role in the Odin reactor, has the potential for independent commercialization within a year as a component for various salt-based coolant reactors used in diverse sectors. From the July 2024 prospectus: We estimate that our microreactor demonstration work will be conducted between 2024 and 2026, our microreactor licensing application will be processed between 2026 and 2031, and our microreactors will be launched between 2030 and 2031. The first interest from abroad emerged with the company signing a MOU with Rwanda, from the PR: The MOU establishes a framework under which NANO Nuclear work alongside the RAEB to facilitate the introduction and eventual integration of small modular reactors (SMRs) and microreactors, like 'ZEUS' and 'ODIN', NANO Nuclear 's next generation microreactors in development, throughout the Republic of Rwanda. NANO Nuclear will also be responsible for enabling the development of the country's entire ecosystem of nuclear energy systems. This includes providing technical assistance, training and educational programs to develop Rwanda's technical expertise in the nuclear energy industry. HALEU Business HALEU (High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium) is a type of nuclear fuel with a higher concentration of the fissile isotope U-235 compared to traditional low-enriched uranium. HALEU is central to NNE's strategy because:  HALEU is necessary to fuel the next generation of advanced nuclear reactors, including NNE's microreactors. By developing a HALEU fuel fabrication facility, NNE aims to become a vertically integrated nuclear energy company, controlling the fuel supply for its reactors. The limited availability of HALEU presents a significant market opportunity. NNE aims to become a key supplier of this critical material to other companies developing advanced reactors.  Fuel Transportation Business We give you this from a recent PR: Advanced Fuel Transportation Inc. (AFT), a NANO Nuclear subsidiary, is led by former executives from the largest transportation company in the world aiming to build a North American transportation company that will provide commercial quantities of HALEU fuel to small modular reactors, microreactor companies, national laboratories, military, and DOE programs. Through NANO Nuclear, AFT is the exclusive licensee of a patented high-capacity HALEU fuel transportation basket developed by three major U.S. national nuclear laboratories and funded by the Department of Energy. Assuming development and commercialization, AFT is expected to form part of the only vertically integrated nuclear fuel business of its kind in North America. Consultation business In the prospectus, management argued that if they were unable to acquire a consultation business, they would build one, spending $2M over 12 months hiring specialists. It looks like they could have their first customer in the form of a MoU with Rwanda. Financials Here are the company's operations: NNE Q2/24 10-Q The company doesn't produce revenues and isn't likely to produce any revenue anytime soon, so this is all about cash flow. Operational cash outflow was $5.95M for the last 9 months, so it's roughly $8M on a 12-month basis (subject to change when they acquire or build their consulting business or reactor prototypes). The company raised $10.46M (NET) from its IPO at $4, and the company had $13.8M at the end of Q2, but they added $20M in a new round of financing in July or $18.6M net, so the company now has $32.4M in funds, which should last them 2-3 years depending on activities. One of these activities involved the recent acquisition of a new headquarters for $1.71M. That latest July financing is pretty amazing, as it was overalloted at $20 per share, while the IPO price was just $4. Risks There are multiple risks:  Developing new reactor types, however promising these might seem, might throw up unexpected hurdles, technical problems, delays, and disappointments. Obtaining permits and licenses for nuclear facilities is a time-consuming and complex process with stringent safety and environmental standards. Building and operating microreactors require significant capital investment, presenting a challenge for funding and cost management. The market for Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) and microreactors is still developing. There is no guarantee of market growth aligning with NNE's expectations. There are public concerns about nuclear energy, so ensuring transparency and emphasizing the safety and environmental benefits of its microreactor technology is paramount.  NNE Stock Valuation Here is what management argued in the prospectus: Notwithstanding the foregoing, our limited operating history and early stage of business makes an evaluation of our business and prospects very difficult... Our new and unproven technology model will necessitate a significant infusion of additional capital for successful deployment, even following this offering. Indeed. The reactors are unlikely to generate any revenues this decade, and the prospects of the other businesses are also very difficult to gauge as they have to be set up. Here is what they argue (in the prospectus, once again): Our technical team is world class, with simple and realizable reactor concepts that do not require exotic fuels and who are aware of all the difficulties faced by almost every other reactor company who has chosen alternative designs. If that's true (and knowledgeable investors are betting on this with their pocketbooks) they could have an amazing business next decade, but it's a long way to get there, and they will have to navigate quite a few obstacles. On August 13, 2024, there were 30.14M shares outstanding, 4.1M outstanding options and 1M warrants for a fully diluted count of 35.2M, which yields a market cap of some $350M (at around $10 per share). That's not a negligible market cap for a company with revenue years off. Conclusion The stock is not unlike a pre-clinical stage biotech company with years of trials (and capital needs) ahead of it, facing an uncertain outcome. We would argue that this is a stock for those who are either familiar with (and have confidence in) the people running it and/or are intimately familiar with the technicalities of their plans, most notably with respect to the two reactor designs. Given the fact that they managed to gather a notable amount of private money, one could argue that there are such people, willing and able to vote with their pocketbooks. For the rest of us, it doesn't seem a good idea to put money in something where returns are years off and outcomes are uncertain and difficult to assess. There will likely be a significant market for microreactors, but it's a new concept and the ones this company proposes are still in the design stage, and it's difficult for us to assess what hurdles are waiting on their journey to fully commercial propositions, or what the economics of these look like.  One should also entertain the possibility that even if the reactors become a home run, investors might not share in that, depending on the amount of financing and dilution that could lay 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08:44","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"十年翻一番？大摩称未来十年中国消费将出现巨变","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1194390769","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居","content":"<blockquote>\n 摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n</blockquote>\n<p><b>疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化</b>，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。</p>\n<p>国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？</p>\n<p>摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，<b>预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。</b></p>\n<p>总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b0a6b47ffc59de4f76d47a8df835eb\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"628\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）</p>\n<p>未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。</p>\n<p>首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。</p>\n<p>这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。</p>\n<p><b>摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1189affeaa8fdc3c00abce6e17a0dbb\" tg-width=\"811\" tg-height=\"417\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）</p>\n<p>第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。</p>\n<p>相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。</p>\n<p>因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。</p>\n<p>此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。<b>大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。</b></p>\n<p>需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。</p>\n<p>最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。</p>\n<p>大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。</p>\n<p>中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。</p>\n<p>与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。</p>\n<p>受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。</p>\n<p>首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。</p>\n<p>大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。</p>\n<p><b>起飞：</b>这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。</p>\n<p><b>转型：</b>指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。</p>\n<p><b>新兴：</b>这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。</p>\n<p><b>成熟</b>：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。</p>\n<p>运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1a6574468ed2aed4739b2c18fa8f962\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"890\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）</p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>十年翻一番？大摩称未来十年中国消费将出现巨变</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n十年翻一番？大摩称未来十年中国消费将出现巨变\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-02-06 08:44 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9709aab2e3fe1dc4fe1939b03983664d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3619738","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1194390769","content_text":"摘要：摩根士丹利预计，2030年中国私人消费规模将翻一番有余，达到13万亿美元。\n\n疫情后，中国的内部经济大循环战略，缩小贫富差距的政策方向，以及领先全球的数字化，叠加人口结构的显著变迁，将推动中国居民消费在未来十年呈现翻天覆地的变化，不仅有超越当今美国消费规模的欣喜图景，也有值得关注的结构挑战、赛道变迁。\n国内消费市场是实现双循环战略的核心市场。面临内部老龄化、外部逆全球化的多重挑战，中国如何释放消费潜力，需求结构如何变迁，业界生态如何转变？\n摩根士丹利的消费分析师楼超，和中国首席经济学家邢自强，携手18位研究人员，在最新的深度报告《中国消费2030展望》中，预计2030年中国的私人消费规模将翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元。\n总量的背后更蕴含着结构的巨变，家庭和中老年将取代年轻一族成为消费增量的主力，服务消费将机构化、专业化，占比显著上升。\n\n（图一:中国2030年消费市场报告主要结论，来源:摩根士丹利研究部）\n未来十年，中国消费增长和结构变迁的主要驱动力来自收入、改革及人口结构。\n首先，收入增长是消费的压舱石，在新型城市化、产业自主化和人民币国际化的三大支柱的推动下，中国有望在疫情之后的世界抵御逆全球化，维持生产率增长，跨越中等收入陷阱，较快达到世界银行定义的高收入经济体标准。与此同时，劳动报酬在整体GDP中的份额有望持续提高。\n这与中国人口结构变动和经济转型密不可分：随着中国跨过刘易斯拐点，以及经济朝服务业逐步转型，劳动报酬占比企稳回升。工资收入占GDP之比从2007-11年的48%上升到了2017年的52%，预计今后十年将持续上升。\n摩根士丹利的团队预计，中国人均可支配年收入有望从现在的6,000美元升至2030年的12,000美元。\n\n（图二: 中国人均可支配收入将在未来十年翻番，来源:CEIC,摩根士丹利研究部，E=摩根士丹利研究部预测）\n第二看改革。当前中国仍有一些抑制消费潜力的瓶颈，有待改善：常住人口城镇化率为61%，户籍城镇化率则不到50%，这意味着农村人口占比仍较高，服务业渗透率仍然较低。同时，社保与户籍关联、覆盖面不足，居民预防性储蓄高企，储蓄率高达35%。\n相比之下，日本在上个世纪九十年代人口红利拐点到来时，其城镇化率已经高达77%，储蓄率则低至17%。\n因此，中国释放消费潜力，需要在供给侧和需求侧双管齐下。供给侧层面，加快新型基础设施建设（如5G基站、充电桩、数据中心、城际高铁等），打造城市化2.0，以五大都市圈为中心发挥人口和企业的集聚效应，提升城市化率，为随时随地“全天候”消费打下基础，为新兴服务业提供规模效应的土壤。\n此外，疫情为国际旅行按下暂停键，叠加逆全球化的长期趋势，政府力图疏通消费的堵点，促进海外消费回流，除了建立海南免税岛，推广国内免税销售，未来还可能降低部分产品的消费税，并加大金融、医疗、娱乐等服务行业的开放力度。大摩预计，2021-23年中国居民每年有1000亿美元左右的海外消费回流，提振国内消费1-2个百分点。\n需求侧层面，决策层将继续推进户籍改革、扩大社保的覆盖面，以降低居民的预防性储蓄。此外，相对于高收入群体，低收入群体的边际消费倾向更高。在过去十年以显著降低了工资个人所得税的背景下，未来十年政府可能推出房产税及资本利得税等财产性税收，降低收入和财富的不平等，从而扩张内需。\n最后，人口结构至关重要。人口老龄化提高经济体中消费者的比例，使得中国整体储蓄率步入下行通道，消费率持续上升。尽管这似乎是老生长谈，但其背后人口结构变化之剧烈，还是会超过大多数人的认知。\n大摩的研判是，尽管当前企业和市场高度重视年轻一代的消费热点、催生的新生事物，然而，到2030年，35-44岁的家庭中坚需求，以及55岁以上的中老年需求，将成为中国消费主力；相反，35岁以下的年轻人群体占总消费的比例将下降。\n中国在1960年代和1986-90经历了两波婴儿潮。前者总计约1.4亿人，先后经历了改革开放和2001年中国入世，享受了中国经济增长带来的红利，也积累了居民财富。未来十年，这代人将逐渐步入退休年龄（55岁以上）并推动休闲、医疗、养老产业的发展。第二波婴儿潮总人数约为1.2亿人，多是独生子女，这一群体未来十年步入35-45岁年龄段，再加上积累资产升值，其占社会总财富的比例将从现在的18%上升到23%，围绕着成立家庭、养育子女、照顾老人，相关服务业的支出将显著增加。\n与此相反，未来十年，年轻人口规模将减少，与之对应的体育、美容、游戏、年轻娱乐等方面的需求将逐步退潮。\n受上述三大因素推动，大摩预计中国私人消费将在2030年翻了一番有余，到13万亿美元，比四年前大摩在第一部中国经济蓝皮书中的预测要高出30%，达到美国当前的市场规模，而服务消费的占比将从45%上升到52%。\n首先，中老龄人口扩大将增加对医疗、娱乐、护理等服务的需求。其次，目前处于黄金工作年龄（25-54岁）的群体中超过55%为独生子女，上有老下有小，养老、育儿等服务可能进一步市场化、规模化、规范化。最后，大数据应用的普及、数字化进程的加快，也有助于服务消费的进一步渗透。\n大摩认为，市场未来的焦点将从当今的品牌和渠道，转向科技和服务。根据各行业对于上述的收入、科技、人口变迁的适应度与敏感性，我们把消费板块划分为四大赛道：起飞，新兴，转型，成熟。\n起飞：这些行业将快速成长，如医疗服务、物业管理、养老服务、健康保险、教育、旅游、免税购物以及家政服务等。\n转型：指的是传统行业必须采取结构性改变、迎接挑战，适应新商业模式，比如智能家居、新能源汽车、虚拟现实、人工智能以及渠道和供应链的变革等。\n新兴：这些行业在今天几乎不存在，但随着科技和服务的有机结合，有望在2030年大放异彩。具体的例子有：服务机器人、情感陪伴、康复医疗，以及在ESG（环境、社会和公司治理）可持续发展大框架下新的消费形式和理念。\n成熟：这类行业可能会受到人口结构变化以及技术进步的冲击，例如低端酒水饮料、传统汽车以及传统家居等，显著放缓。\n运用以上框架，大摩甄别了相关行业，推出了未来十年的机遇展望，包括对于机构专业化服务（教育，综合性平台，医疗，退休服务，医疗保险以及供应链管理）、智能生活（电子化物业管理，智能家居和新能源汽车）、体验大幅升级的商品及服务（情感陪伴、医疗康复、机器人）将会迎来坚实的增长。相反，线下渠道以及传统商品（燃油汽车和传统家电等）将面临挑战，包括一些当前增长仍较为强劲的行业如中低端酒水、生活基本必需品等。\n\n（图五: 四种商业类型及前景）","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":188927,"gmtCreate":1526004232256,"gmtModify":1704892859870,"author":{"id":"3473910588676310","authorId":"3473910588676310","name":"维克多123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0be78881a5953fc13169c6cb881089","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473910588676310","authorIdStr":"3473910588676310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"请问一下老虎证券怎么做大宗期货商品？","listText":"请问一下老虎证券怎么做大宗期货商品？","text":"请问一下老虎证券怎么做大宗期货商品？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188927","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1672,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":166405,"gmtCreate":1520947494989,"gmtModify":1704890198309,"author":{"id":"3473910588676310","authorId":"3473910588676310","name":"维克多123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1a0be78881a5953fc13169c6cb881089","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3473910588676310","authorIdStr":"3473910588676310"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好","listText":"好","text":"好","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166405","repostId":"166293","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":166293,"gmtCreate":1520927889080,"gmtModify":1704890183260,"author":{"id":"3483931241188904","authorId":"3483931241188904","name":"88Meeting","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc14fe66ab1fbe951beec1462d876dec","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3483931241188904","authorIdStr":"3483931241188904"},"themes":[],"title":"港股A股的投研工具箱和最新市场信息查询网站","htmlText":"想知道港股和A股的最新对比吗？2018年，A股和港股到底哪个更值得投资呢？作为理性的投资者，你应该马上收藏这份（大部分数据截止今年2月底）最新AH股对比表和股票投研工具大全，用图表从宏观看清A/H股的实时情况，巧用工具从微观审视每一支股票！ 目录： 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 二、A/H股当前基本概况对比 三、A/H股交易机制对比 四、在A/H同时上市的公司 五、数据来源 &nbsp; 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 有道是磨刀不误砍柴工，要了解港股、A股市场，必须要熟悉一些顺手好用的投研和信息获取工具。若能好好利用下面的网站和工具，事半功倍并不难达到。 &nbsp; （1）公告网站 大部分炒股软件都有公司公告，无论新手老手都可以通过港股交易所、美国证监会网站和上交所、深交所拿到第一手的公告资料。 【港股】香港联交所披露易：<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lgrb\">http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=601788</a> &nbsp; 【美股】美国证监会SEC的网站上有一套EDGAR系统看公告：<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lgrb\">http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=601788</a> &nbsp; 【A股】上海证券交易所网站：<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lgrb\">http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?product</a>","listText":"想知道港股和A股的最新对比吗？2018年，A股和港股到底哪个更值得投资呢？作为理性的投资者，你应该马上收藏这份（大部分数据截止今年2月底）最新AH股对比表和股票投研工具大全，用图表从宏观看清A/H股的实时情况，巧用工具从微观审视每一支股票！ 目录： 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 二、A/H股当前基本概况对比 三、A/H股交易机制对比 四、在A/H同时上市的公司 五、数据来源 &nbsp; 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 有道是磨刀不误砍柴工，要了解港股、A股市场，必须要熟悉一些顺手好用的投研和信息获取工具。若能好好利用下面的网站和工具，事半功倍并不难达到。 &nbsp; （1）公告网站 大部分炒股软件都有公司公告，无论新手老手都可以通过港股交易所、美国证监会网站和上交所、深交所拿到第一手的公告资料。 【港股】香港联交所披露易：<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lgrb\">http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=601788</a> &nbsp; 【美股】美国证监会SEC的网站上有一套EDGAR系统看公告：<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lgrb\">http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=601788</a> &nbsp; 【A股】上海证券交易所网站：<a href=\"https://r.laohu8.com/lgrb\">http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?product</a>","text":"想知道港股和A股的最新对比吗？2018年，A股和港股到底哪个更值得投资呢？作为理性的投资者，你应该马上收藏这份（大部分数据截止今年2月底）最新AH股对比表和股票投研工具大全，用图表从宏观看清A/H股的实时情况，巧用工具从微观审视每一支股票！ 目录： 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 二、A/H股当前基本概况对比 三、A/H股交易机制对比 四、在A/H同时上市的公司 五、数据来源 一、投研工具，信息源汇总 有道是磨刀不误砍柴工，要了解港股、A股市场，必须要熟悉一些顺手好用的投研和信息获取工具。若能好好利用下面的网站和工具，事半功倍并不难达到。 （1）公告网站 大部分炒股软件都有公司公告，无论新手老手都可以通过港股交易所、美国证监会网站和上交所、深交所拿到第一手的公告资料。 【港股】香港联交所披露易：http://www.sse.com.cn/assortment/stock/list/info/announcement/index.shtml?productId=601788 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